1

EAI, Inc. (Energy Analysts International) Westminster, Colorado Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

2

Petroleum Transportation and Logistics: North America-Midwest-Ohio Perspective 2011 Ohio Freight Conference Toledo Metropolitan Area Council of  Governments EAI, Inc. (Energy Analysts International)  Joseph J. Leto / [email protected] / 303‐469‐5115 Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

3

U.S. Downstream Business Trends and Outlooks Key Drivers for Product Transport/Pipelines 

Declining U.S. Gasoline Consumption



Increasing Ethanol Use



Biofuels Supply Capability Lags Mandate / RFS Plans



Recovery and growth of On‐Road Diesel Demand



Decline of U.S. Refinery Crude Runs/Potential Closures



Increasing Exports of U.S. Finished Product to Foreign Destinations to Maintain  Refinery Utilization/Profitability



Decline in Refinery Distillate Output Without Continued Investment 



Major Shifts in Refined Product Transportation

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

4

U.S. Refined Product Network Petroleum Logistics in Transition

PL w new e N ed LV ne ts C rs le SL ine out ef PacificR

Southwest Transitioning from Balanced-to-Long CARB cap. a first Refining center Primary pipeline Product import Barge movement

No Se rthe ab as oa t rd

Rocky Mountain

ure ess ures r P s ort C lo Imp inery ef &R

Northern Tier D Re Fav ecl su or ini lti ab ng ng le C in cru NV GC de LP pr pri de od c i m uc ng and t d in isp no & lac rth em en t

r ine Ref A d un fL t So out o e g Pu cked Ba

P No acif rth ic we st

Product flows / logistics shifting as shown below; Gulf Coast experiencing increases in supply through  displacement, consumption declines and manufacturing increases.  Refiners increasing exports (to  foreign and new domestic destinations), shifting to diesel and reducing runs.

Midcontinent

Gulf Coast

GC-WTX/NM-SCA competing For finite market

Midwest

Southeast Seaboard

s plu ing s n u as rpl ncre etitio u s i p L m ng wi f CP n co o r o g ea n GC nsio urop a -E p Ex -GC S NE Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

5

U.S. Gasoline Flow Outlook Scenario 2010/2015, MBPD

Gulf to Midwest Movements Declining‐Pipelines Underutilized; Product Surplus Building in the Gulf Coast  pushing to Foreign markets, Florida on Water and Eastern Seaboard.   Pipelines to Eastern Seaboard  constrained to access NYH; Expanding to allow access and displacement of Northeast product.

Chicago 103/87 103/87

Lima 516/356 516/356 CENTENNIAL CENTENNIAL

EXPLORER EXPLORER

315/167 315/167

NYH/Linden

617/300 617/300

All Foreign To 204/321 NES 204/321

TEPPCO TEPPCO

COLONIAL COLONIAL // PLANTATION PLANTATION

KINDER KINDER MORGAN MORGAN

609/962 609/962

131/152 131/152

1486/1595 1486/1595

Beaumont

2010/2015 2010/2015

94/61 94/61

Houston

Foreign Markets/Surplus

375/408 375/408 215/215 215/215 Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

U.S. Refined Product Network & Midwest Interaction

6

Midwest interacts with Gulf Coast supply via four pipelines to supplement  product shortfalls M M M aine ain aine e M M M aine ain aine e

W W ashington ashin W ashingto n W ashington gton W W ashingto ashington n

N N ew  H am psh p ire N ew H am pshire N New ew ew H  H  Ham am am psh pshire shire ire

N  Dakota North Dakota orth Dakota N orth N orth Dakota N orth Dakota  Dakota

M M M ontana ontan ontana ntana a M M M ontana ontan o a

M M inneso innesota nesota ta M innesota M in M M innesota inneso ta

Idaho Idaho Idaho Idaho Idaho Idaho

O Oregon regon regon O

M M M assachusetts assach assachusetts usetts M M M assachusetts assach assachusetts usetts W W W isco isconsin isconsin nsin nsin W W W isco isconsin isco nsin FLINT HILLS

N N ew  York N ew York N New ew ew York  York  York M ichigan M ich igan M ichigan M ichigan

C C Con on onnecticut onnecticut necticutt C C C onnecticut onnecticut necticu

South Sou  Dakota South Dakota South South Dakota th Dakota  Dakota W W yom yom ing ing W yom ing W yom ing W W yom yom ing ing

Pennsylvania Penn Pennsylvania Pennsylvania sylvania N Pennsylvania Pennsylvania N New ew Jersey ew Jersey  Jersey N ew  Jersey Io Iow Iowa wa wa a a Io Iow Io w a

U U U tah tah U U Utah tah tah tah

G MA

N CO

HI OP OC

O O Oklahom klahom klahom a a a

Arizon Arizona Arizona a Arizon Arizona Arizona a N ew  M exico New ew M exico N  M N ew  Mexico exico

PS LLI

Arkan Arkansas Arkansas sas Arkan Arkansas Arkansas sas

M M M ississippi ississippi ississippi

Texas Tex as Tex as Texas

W W est Virginia est Virginia W est Virginia W W est Virginia est Virginia

Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana

Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Virginia Kentucky Kentu Kentucky cky Kentucky Kentu Kentucky cky

M M M issou issouri issouri ri M M M issou issouri issouri ri R RE LO P EX

TE

Kansas Kansas Kansas Kansas Kansas Kansas

RI SE

C C California alifornia alifornia alifornia C C C alifornia alifornia

Illinois Illinois Illin Illinois Illinois Illino ois is

CE NT EN NIA L

C C olorado o C o Colorad olo lorado rado C C olorad olorado o

N LA EL

EN TE RP

N N Nevada evada evada evada N N N evada evada

Delaw Delaware are Delaw are Delaware Delaw Delaw are are olu m bia District o District of C District of C f Colum olum bia ia olu mb bia

O O O hio hio O O Ohio hio hio hio

N N Nebraska ebraska ebraska ebraska N N N ebraska ebraska

N N orth C orth C aro arolina lin N orth C arolina North C orth Carolina arolina N N orth C aro lina a

Ten Tennessee Tennessee nessee

L CPL_PP

Sou South C South th C  C arolina aro arolina lina Sou South C South th C  Carolina aro arolina lina

G G eo eo rgia rgia G Geo eorgia rgia G G eo eo rgia rgia Alabam Alabam aa a Alabam a Alabam Alabam Alabam a a

Lo Louisiana Louisiana uisiana Lo Louisiana Louisiana uisiana

rida Flo Florida Florida rida

Products Terminal Refinery Products Pipeline

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

7

USCC Refined Product Network EAI, Inc. Terminal Micro‐Markets, Pipelines & Refinery Hubs GRAND FORKS MINOT

DULUTH BISMARCK

FARGO‐JAMESTOWN FARGO_MOOREHEAD ALEXANDRIA

SUPERIOR

GREEN BAY ST PAUL

ABERDEEN

CHEBOYGAN

CHIPPEWA FALLS JUNCTION CITY

TRAVERSE CITY RAPID CITY

MARSHALL

MANKATO BAY CITY

ROCHESTER_MN

SIOUX FALLS

MILFORD MASON CITY SIOUX CITY

ONTARIO

WAUPUN

USCC

MADISON

MILWAUKEE

MUSKEGON

FLINT

DUBUQUE

DETROIT

WATERLOO

JACKSON ROCKFORD

SCOTTSBLUFF IOWA CITY GRAND ISLAND

DES MOINES COUNCIL BLUFFS

DES PLAINS

BETTENDORF

TOLEDO

CLEVELAND

HUNTINGTON

FORT MADISON HEYWORTH

LINCOLN_NE

NILES

HAMMOND

PLMY KIRKSVILLE CHILLICOTHE

DECATUR

CANTON MUNCIE

CHAMPAIGN MENARD

AKRON YOUNGSTOWN

LIMA

LAFAYETTE_IN

COLUMBUS INDIANAPOLIS

MIDLAND

DAYTON MARIETTA

SALINA TOPEKA

ST. JOSEPH KANSAS CITY

TERRE HAUTE LAWRENCEVILLE

COLUMBIA

ST. LOUIS EAST

DODGE CITY

SCIOTOVILLE LOUISVILLE OWENSBORO LEXINGTON

ST. LOUIS WEST

WICHITA

CINCINNATI

CATLETTSBURG

SPRINGFIELD PADUCAH

TULSA

EAI Terminal Micro‐ market

AMARILLO OKLAHOMA CITY FORT SMITH LAWTON

KNOXVILLE

PIPELINE TERMINAL REFINING CENTER

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

8

Primary Light Product Distribution Chicago, Wood River, Robinson Refining Supply

Western Midwest product market orbit distribution density has been declining with surplus product (especially) gasoline in  the Eastern Midwest (Eastern Michigan & Ohio).   Western MW supply moves east to the Detroit‐Lima corridor although  these movements have declined dramatically.  Product moves as far south as Louisville (Marathon) and as far west as KC‐ Sioux Falls (via the BP proprietary V‐system) Northern Tier Origin

Mandan

Duluth

Chicago, Wood River, Robinson

Superior

Sioux City

Minneapolis Milwaukee

Chicago

Wood  River McPherson

Mid‐Continent  and GC Pipeline Origin

Indianapolis

Markets Refinery

Wynnewood

Canton

Pittsburgh

Cincinnati Catlettsburg

Coffeyville

Tulsa Oklahoma City Ardmore

Lima

Robinson

Mt. Vernon

Ponca City Texas Panhandle

Toledo Whiting

St. Louis

El Dorado

Cleveland

Detroit

Des Moines

Western Midcontinent Distribution Area

Memphis

Louisville

Mt. Vernon‐Catlettsburg Ohio River

TEPPCO – Centennial GC PL Origin Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

Product Distribution by Barge Mississippi and Ohio River Systems Gasoline from Minneapolis

Ohio Iowa

Columbus

Illinois

Indiana

Wood River

Cinncinnati

Marietta

Pennsylvania Pittsburgh Wheeling

Mt. Vernon

W. Virginia

E. St. Louis Evansville Cairo

Parkersburg Charleston Covington Huntington Ashland Louisville

St. Louis

Missouri Cape Girardeau Paducah

New Madrid

Kentucky Nashville

Arkansas Helena Arkansas City

Memphis

Tennessee

Greenville

Mississippi Vicksburg

Louisiana

Pascagoula

Baton Rouge

Gulf Coast Sources Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

10

Product Supply ‐ Distribution Network  EAI, Inc. Midwest Region

West Shore BP, W

Explorer COP

NORCO

WRB Explorer

ye

BP Husky PBFE

Inland, Sunoco, Buckeye

Cleveland

Buckeye

Marathon

t

Inland

n ho ra t a M hon e ckey Marat ye u B   , e n atho Buck Mar

Wood River

Detroit Detroit Marathon Marathon

e olverin

Chicago Chicago BP BP ExxonMobil ExxonMobil CITGO CITGO

BP, Buckeye, Magellan

rine Bu ck e

St. Paul t Flint Hills  t Northern Tier Refining

Bu Ex ckey p Ph lore e, il li r , ps

Northern Tier

Wisconsin

Bay  City

Columbus Columbus

BP

Cincinnati

Marathon

Ca rd

t

Indianapolis

ina l

Market Areas

l ve Wo

TEPP C Buck O, eye

Pipeline Water Truck Refining Areas

Superior  Calumet (to Close with Murphy  by 3Q‐4Q 2011)

Cen ten nial

St. Louis Magellan

Kentucky

PCO TEP

Catlettsburg Marathon

COP t

MC Explorer

Valero t WRB Texas Panhandle

Tennessee

t

t

t

Gulf Coast

Valero

SES/ NES

Colonial, Plantation Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

11

Midwest –Ohio Downstream Business Update • Sarnia SPL

Milwaukee WLV, BP

Chicago Chicago MRO

Indianapolis

BCKY

Wood Wood River River

BC MA KY P

M L, EP CKY B

Robinson Robinson BCKY

Toledo Lima

Norco,

TE BP PPC O

PL ,P PL

Detroit

O MR

MRO

INLAND, TEPPCO

WEST SHORE

SUN, BKY BKY SUN Cleveland INLAND

BK IN Y, LA ND

•

Canton

Dayton Columbus

•

TEPPCO

Cincinnati

ORPL

Evansville Catlettsburg Catlettsburg

Louisville

•

Gulf Gulf Coast Coast

Refining Center Markets

Ohio has very diverse supply access  including Gulf Coast, Western Midwest,  Southeast Michigan, Kentucky, Local  Ohio Refineries and access via the Ohio  River. With demand declines and diverse  supply access, Eastern Midwest‐Ohio  generally “long” in product supply  making it highly competitive.   Refineries undergoing change with  Sunoco selling their Toledo plant to PBF  Energy.   BP and Husky own the Toledo  refinery as part of  a JV which and plan to  convert to run more heavy crude from  Canada. Ohio product surplus pushing to external  markets including Pittsburgh, Sarnia  Ontario and other Midwest markets.

Pipeline

Waterborne Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

12

Ohio Refined Product Transportation Network TOLEDO

NILES NILES TOLEDO LEDO TO

WARREN ARREN W

C CLEVELAND LEVELAND

CLEVELAND

AKRON YOUNGSTOWN

HUNTINGTO HUNTINGTON N

AKRO AKRON N

YOUNGSTO UNGSTOW WN N YO

LIM LIMA A LIM A

C CANTO ANTON N

PITTSBURG H

M MUNC UNCIE IE M MIDLAN IDLAND IDLAND D

COLUMBUS

PITTSBURGH PITTSBURGH

C CO OLUM LUMBUS BUS INDIANAPOLIS

DAYTO DAYTO N N DAYTO N

INDIANAPO LIS NDIANAPOLIS

M MARIETTA ARIETTA EAI MICRO-MARKET

CINCINNATI

M MO ORGANTO RGANTOW WN N

Products Terminal Major Refinery BP/Inland

C CINC INCINNATI INNATI SC SCIO IOTO TOVILLE VILLE

Buckeye Partners Marathon Sunoco TEPPCO

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

13

Crude Slate Outlook U.S. Central Corridor Refineries Incremental heavy crude demand forecast at 532 MBPD by 2014 and 635 MBPD by 2016.  This  assumes that BP‐Husky comes online by 2016.  Light‐medium crude liberation on the order of 1000  consisting of  650 due to conversion to heavy and 350 MBPD due to demand decline. 4000

4000

3750

3750 BP-HUSKY TOLEDO

3500

3500

3250

3250

3000

3000 Base Heavy/Bitumen Blend Runs

Supply, MBPD

2750

2750

WRB

BP_WHTN

2500

2500

2250

2250

2000

2000

1750

1750

Light/Medium Crude Runs

1500

1500

1250

1250

1000

1000

750

750

500

500 Incremental Hvy/Bitumen Blends

250 0 BP_HSKY_TLDO MRO_DTRT BP_WHTN WRB_WR BASE HVY/BTM BLEND LIGHT/MEDIUM INCR_HVY

Incremental Supply, MBPD

MRO-DTRT

250

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

103

103

103

103

103

0 0 0 477

0 0 0 521

0 0 0 484

0 0 0 423

0 0 0 562

0 0 0 643

0 0 0 675

0 0 0 689

0 0 0 840

0 0 0 680

0 0 0 754

0 0 0 754

43 0 191 754

82 130 191 754

82 260 191 754

82 260 191 754

82 260 191 754

82 260 191 754

82 260 191 754

82 260 191 754

82 260 191 754

2887

2763

2711

2773

2723

2635

2603

2518

2373

2438

2524

2469 0

2231 234

2012 403

1839 532

1805 532

1678 635

1624 635

1585 635

1548 635

1530 635

0

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

14

Midwest Refinery Conversions Reshaping the Refining Business and Crude Market

The Wood River, BP Whiting and Marathon Detroit refinery conversion projects will add 60‐110 of effective crude  processing capacity, 470‐532  (depending on Wood River incremental) of heavy crude upgrading capacity and 100 of  additional light product capacity over the 2011 to 2013 timeframe. The BP‐Husky Toledo project could add another 103  MBPD of heavy processing capability.   Wood River Refinery: The Wood River refinery is owned by COP and  Cenovus who are expanding the plants capacity to process heavy crude.   Expanding heavy crude processing capability to 240 MBPD  (increase of 130 )  and overall crude processing capability by 50 MBPD to 356 MBPD.  Vacuum  tower and coker units to be completed by Q3‐2011 and startup to occur  Q42011.  BP Whiting Refinery: BP is converting and expanding their Whiting  refinery to increase heavy oil processing capability by 260 BMPD and overall  crude processing capacity to 405 MBPD.  Total light product production  capacity will be increased by approximately 40 MBPD.  Completion has been  delayed to mid‐2013.    BP-Husky Toledo Refinery: BP and Husky are pursuing conversion of  the Toledo refinery to process and additional 103 MBPD of heavy crude.   EAI, Inc. has this occurring by 2016.  Marathon Detroit Refinery: Marathon is increasing the capacity of their  Detroit refinery from 106 to 120 MBPD and increasing their heavy oil  processing capability by 80 MBPD.  The plant will be able to produce an  additional 9.5 MBPD of light product.  The project is due for completion by  Q4‐2012.

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

15

Interregional Crude Movement With Supply Region Volumes WC WC Demand: BC 65 MBPD Demand: BC 65 MBPD Demand: WC 178 MBPD Demand: WC 178 MBPD

WCSB WCSB Supply:   2565 MBPD Supply:   2565 MBPD Demand: 437 MBPD Demand: 437 MBPD

ECND ECND Dom Runs:  340 MBPD Dom Runs:  340 MBPD FRN Runs:   652 MBPD FRN Runs:   652 MBPD

ECND ECND Offshore:  276 MBPD Offshore:  276 MBPD Imports:   652 MBPD Imports:   652 MBPD

250 250 276 276 1480 1480 360 360

280 280 150 150

52 52 CDN CDN

115 115

895 895

OVERALL CANADIAN CRUDE BALANCE 5000

3000

2000

1000

WCDN RUNS

ECDN RUNS

EX WCSB

ECDN PRD

Ja n‐ 11

N ov ‐1 0

Se p‐ 10

Ju l‐1 0

M ay ‐1 0

M ar ‐1 0

Ja n‐ 10

N ov ‐0 9

Se p‐ 09

Ju l‐0 9

M ar ‐0 9 M ay ‐0 9

Ja n‐ 09

N ov ‐0 8

Se p‐ 08

Ju l‐0 8

M ar ‐0 8 M ay ‐0 8

0

Ja n‐ 08

MBPD

4000

FRN IMPORTS

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

16

North American Region Overview Overall Crude Balance and Logistics 

The North  America  composite  outlook  includes  Canada,  Mexico  and  the  United  States.    In  terms  of  overall  crude  balance,  total  crude  refined  was  17.7  MMBPD  and  total  crude  production was 10.9 MMBPD – North America is crude short and imports significant volumes  from other producing areas, 6.7 MMBPD.



On an individual country basis, Canada produced 2.8 MMBPD and refined around 1.76 MBPD.   Canadian  crude  exports  to  the  U.S.  amounted  to  1.9  MMBPD  and  crude  imports  into  the  Canadian East Coast were around 0.8 MMBPD.



Mexico produced around 2.6 MMBPD, inputs into refining were 1.2 MMBPD and 1.4 MMBPD  were exported.  Mexico has significant imports of refined products primarily from the U.S.



U.S.  production  amounted  to  5.5  MMBPD  and  refinery  runs  were  14.7  MMBPD.    Net  U.S.  crude imports from outside of North America were approximately 6.0 MMBPD.  The U.S. is a  major importer of refined products from countries outside of North America. 

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

EAI, Inc. North American Crude Supply Outlook

17

Unconventional outpaces Conventional

DILBIT SYNBIT WCS High Gasoil – Resid Blends

DEMAND Had been for HEAVY SOUR BLENDS

SYNTHETIC CONDENSATE LT SWEET ETHANOL Light Ends Dominant Streams

OFFSHORE MED SR GROWTH OF VERY LIGHT SWEET GRADES

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

Canadian Crude Supply Outlook Unconstrained field grade transfers (before blending and upgrader conversion losses). 6000 HIGH CASE 5000

ALBIAN

MPBD

4000

3000

CAPP  6‐2011

2000

SUNCOR

BIT2SYN

RAWBIT

SYNCRUDE

DILBIT NE_CDN_LT

1000

NE_CDN_HVY

LT_MED HVY_CONV

0

HORIZON

LONG LAKE

SYNBIT

ALBIAN

SYNCRUDE

SUNCOR

RAWBIT

DILBIT

BIT2SYN

NE_CDN_LT

NE_CDN_HVY

LT_MED

HVY_CONV

CAPP 6‐2011 GROWTH SUPPLY

SPEC3

All Canadian Supply including Eastern Offshore.  Raw streams before midstream blending or adjustment for CDN Refining

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

Canadian Export‐U.S. Import Crude Oil Network Edmonton

D2 Vancouver

ENBRIDGE SOUTHERN LIGHTS DILUENT RECYCLING

Hardisty

C D1 TMPL

15

J

250

Enbridge

89 226

Anacortes

S

Express

Superior

1480 161

ENBR-ND

SOUTHERN ACCESS ENBRIDGE Added 400 MBPD CAPY MAY 2009

360 Billings

O

250 q1 98 Butte

895

H

I

103

Sarnia

A Warren

Chicago

KEYSTONE WOOD RIVERSalt – 435Lake 6- 2010 Suncor CUSHING - 155 CAPY 2- 2011 Denver

RAIL

165 100

N

KEYSTONE XL EDMONTON TO HOUSTON With BAKKEN MARKETLINK

M

Cushing 80

E K PROJECT

TARGET

A

SOUTHERN ACCESS – FLANAGAN 400 MBPD

COMPLETED SPRING 2009

C

ENBRIDGE GATEWAY (CRUDE)

580 MBPD/150 COND

D1 D2

TMX-2 DONE, TMX 3 PLANNING TMX NORTHERN EXPORT

300 MBPD BY 2015 400 MBPD post 2015

MONARCH – BP GAP Reversal CUSHING TO HOUSTON

250 MBPD BY 201x

E

Houston

773 F

CDN WATERBORNE EXPORT TO US PSW

LIMITED VIA BURNABY

H

KEYSTONE TO WOOD RIVER CUSHING LINK - 155 MBPD

DONE JUNE 2010 DONE FEB 2011

I

KEYSTONE XL – GULF COAST EXTENSION 500-700 MBPD

TARGET 2013 CONNECT BAKER MT

New Jersey

Patoka Wichita

F

P

L Mustang

142

Beaumont

PROJECT

TARGET

J

ENBRIDGE ALBERTA CLIPPER CAPY EXPAND BY 2010

WITH SOUTHERN ACCESS EXPAND

K

EPPL – CUSHING TO HOUSTON

CONCEPT TARGET 2012

L

MUSTANG EXPANSION TO 140 MBPD

2009

M

PEGASUS EXPANSION TO 95 MBPD

COMPLETED JUNE 2009

N

TRANSCANADA- LOUISIANA ACCESS

CONCEPT

O

LINE-9 REVERSAL – TRAILBREAKER 215 MBPD

ON HOLD

P

SUNOCO – NORTHEAST 24 INCH 400 MBPD

CONCEPT

R

SPEARHEAD EXPANSION TO 190 MBPD

COMPLETED MAY2009

S

ENBRIDGE ND (PORTAL) EXPANDED TO 161 MBPD PORTAL NORTH – 140 ND TO CDN

JAN 2010 –DONE

EST AVG 2010 THROUGHPUT MBPD

Primary Canadian Crude Export Pipelines Secondary and Planned Pipelines Refining Centers

TARGET 2013

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

Western Canadian Crude Distribution Outlook All Grades; Units, MBPD Total Western Supply for export to all markets(including Ontario) is forecast to increase from 1996 MBPD in  2010 to roughly 2964  and 3735 MBPD  by 2015 and 2020 respectively.  If prices remain stable and policy  does not limit bitumen based exports to the U.S. the export level could increase beyond that shown below. 5000

4500

4000

3500

Exports, MBPD

3000

Chicago ‐ Wood  River  /MC/GC  Base plus Surplus

Superior

2500

2000

To Ontario Warren Ohio

1500

Michigan Minneapolis

1000

Rocky Mountains Westridge Waterborne

Puget Sound 500 Western Canada  Refining 0

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

Canada-U.S. Central Corridor-Gulf Crude Network

21

161

Enbridge – Lakehead

115

KEYSTONE XL TARGET 2013

460

Lakehead & Southern Access

435 MBPD KEYSTONE STARTUP 2010

SARNIA LINE 6B CHICAGO 623

500 590

340 Toldeo

BP

Express-Platte

Mustang

Spearhead

180

275

ChiCap

Lima

W R PATOKA

193 White Cliffs

COP

Y

350 JAL MIDLAND ODESSA

WTG

ar Oz

k

325

CUSHING DRUMRIGHT

CAPLINE

150

238 150

WICHITA FALLS

Seaway

185 OX

219

VYCENTER 150

30 TEXAS PANHANDLE BORGER

Exxon Mobil

Mid Valley

sin Ba 335

CORSICANA Amde l

350

Seaway

LONGVIEW Sunoco lines x 3

1140

SHELL

Refineries 150

Pipeline Capacities, MBPD

Copyright ©: EAI, Inc., 2011

Midwest and Eastern Crude Pipelines and Refining % SUPERIOR

Enbridge – Lakehead

240

Enbridge – LINE-9 460

Lakehead & Southern Access

SARNIA

LINE 6B

%

% WARREN

340

%

CHICAGO

BP

%

% %

623

%% %%

LINE-7

CANTON

%

%

%

EAGLE POINT

%

Lima

Mustang 275

Spearhead

% % % % % % %

LINDEN

Toldeo

DELAWARE CITY

ChiCap PHASE III Southern Access WOOD RIVER PLATTE-143 KEYSTONE-435

% %

PATOKA

275

CATLETTSBURG

%ROBINSON

% 219

%

CHEROKEE OZARK 325

YORKTOWN

238

MT VERNON

150

Pegasus

%

%

M I S S

Greenbriar Limestone

D E V O N I A N

New Albany - Ohio Shale Genesee Tully Lime MARCELLUS

S I L O R D O V I C I A N

Pocono Group

Onandoga Ridgeley SS Salina Group Lockport LS CLINTON Medina Reedsville Shale UTICA FORMATION TRENTON/ BLACK RIVER LS Loysburg FM Beekmatown Group

Mid Valley CAPLINE 1140

MEMPHIS

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Midwest and Eastern Shale Plays Marcellus and Utica

ENCANA - DEVON DRILLING UTICA –COLLINGWOOD SHALE TESTS IN MICHIGAN

Michigan Basin

Utica Shale Play Outline UTICA OIL

Kankanee Arch

UTICA GAS-COND

CHESAPEAKE - ENERVEST 780,000 ACRES, OHIO TO INCREASE TO 8 RIGS BY YEAR END 2011.

Illinois  Basin New Albany (gas) Play Outline

New Albany (oil) Source rock

UTICA GAS

Appalachian Basin

REX ENERGY PLAN TO HAVE 20 RIGS ACTIVE IN UTICA PLAY OHIO & PA BY YEAR END 2011

Marcellus Shale Play Outline

M I S S

Greenbriar Limestone

D E V O N I A N

New Albany - Ohio Shale Genesee Tully Lime MARCELLUS

S I L O R D O V I C I A N

Pocono Group

Onandoga Ridgeley SS Salina Group Lockport LS CLINTON Medina Reedsville Shale UTICA FORMATION TRENTON/ BLACK RIVER LS Loysburg FM Beekmatown Group

GASTAR UTICA SHALE 15.5 MMCFD / 1100 BCPD. MARSHALL CO WV

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