The Ravage of the Planet: Climate Change and the Greek coastal zone

E. DOUKAKIS,

Associate Professor, National Technical University Athens Visiting Professor, Cyprus University of Technology

TOPICS OF THE PRESENTATION: 1. THE CHANGING CLIMATE AND GLOBAL IMPACTS 2. CONCLUSIONS OF THE INTEGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)- (AR5 - 11/2014) 3. CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR GREECE 4. METHODS TO STUDY THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE COASTAL ZONES 5. COASTAL VULNERABILITY STUDIES IN GREECE 6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

1. THE CHANGING CLIMATE AND GLOBAL IMPACTS

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

1

HISTORICAL CONCENTRATION OF CO2 AND METHANE (AR 4)

IN THE LAST 10 YEARS : + 10% IN CO2 CONCENTRATION !

1

(AR 4)

CO2 in the 21st Century

Source: IPCC TAR 2001

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature during the last millennium and projections in the 21st century (AR 4)

TEMPERATURE RISE SCENARIOS OVER (AR 4) THE 21st CENTURY

1.5 – 5.5o C

+0.8o C SLR: 20-100 cm

2. CONCLUSIONS OF THE INTEGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) (AR 5) (11/2014)

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.

Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century.

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

Temperature Change Data

1880-1884

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

2003-2007

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

IMPACTS OF TEMPERATURE INCREASE

3. CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR GREECE

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

Precipitation rate (%)

Precipitation rate (%)

Temperature change (%)

Precipitation rate (%)

Precipitation rate (%)

Temperature change (%)

Temperature change (%)

Temperature change (%)

MEAN SEA LEVEL SECULAR TRENDS IN GREECE 290/001 290/004 290/011 290/014 290/017 290/021 290/030 290/031 290/032 290/033 290/034 290/051 290/061 290/065 290/071 290/081 290/091 290/097 290/101 290/110

15 1981 - 1999 1.17 +/- 2.29 48.7 38 57 N 20 46 E 19 1970 - 1999 2.68 +/- 0.75 27.5 38 50 N 20 42 E 15 1969 - 1993 -12.15 +/- 1.90 56.5 37 57 N 22 57 E 14 1969 - 1999 17.37 +/- 1.06 42.0 38 14 N 21 44 E 18 1970 - 1998 2.39 +/- 0.60 24.6 37 38 N 21 19 E 14 1974 - 1999 4.15 +/- 0.87 26.5 37 01 N 22 08 E 10 1985 - 1995 1.20 +/- 2.54 26.5 37 57 N 23 30 E 17 1969 - 1994 -6.34 +/- 2.34 84.6 37 56 N 23 37 E 3 1986 - 1989 -7.36 +/- 13.73 29.7 38 02 N 24 00 E 12 1978 - 1998 -0.93 +/- 2.02 39.4 38 28 N 23 36 E 18 1969 - 1999 -2.50 +/- 0.82 31.0 38 28 N 23 36 E 22 1970 - 1998 3.19 +/- 0.82 35.0 40 37 N 23 02 E 18 1969 - 1999 -8.20 +/- 2.94 125.6 40 55 N 24 25 E 16 1971 - 1999 2.17 +/- 0.96 30.8 40 51 N 25 53 E 17 1969 - 1999 3.49 +/- 1.26 45.6 38 23 N 26 09 E 8 1971 - 1999 6.80 +/- 2.70 61.1 37 26 N 24 55 E 14 1971 - 1999 2.31 +/- 0.66 20.1 37 05 N 26 53 E 20 1969 - 1999 -2.14 +/- 1.06 43.0 35 30 N 24 03 E 5 1984 - 1999 6.47 +/- 1.86 26.8 35 20 N 25 08 E 8 1972 - 1999 2.03 +/- .37 32.7 36 26 N 28 14 E

http://pol.ac.uk/psmsl/datainfo/rlr.trends EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

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PREVEZA LEVKAS POSIDHONIA PATRAI KATAKOLON KALAMAI NORTH SALAMINOS PIRAIEVS RAFINA KHALKIS SOUTH KHALKIS NORTH THESSALONIKI KAVALLA ALEXANDROUPOLIS KHIOS SIROS LEROS SOUDHAS IRAKLION RODHOS

6

4. METHODS TO STUDY THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE COASTAL ZONES

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

STATIC PART

AN INTEGRATED DETERMINISTIC APPROACH ESTIMATING SHORELINE CHANGE CAN INCLUDE:

INUNDATION CONCEPT

+ EROSION CONCEPT

DYNAMIC PART

+

⎬

(models)

HISTORICAL RETREAT

+

STRONG WIND EFFECTS

+

⎬

LOCAL CHARACTERISTICS (e.g. sand removal, coral reefs)

(measurements)

INUNDATION DUE TO SEA LEVEL RISE

Sea level after rise

permanent inundation

Initial sea level

S

retreat

retreat

S

BRUUN MODEL OF EROSION FOR SANDY BEACHES (static model) B

A

S

S = (A * B) / D

+

D

Study of historical beach retreat

land 2000 1950

•  Historical retreat can be

estimated using geoinformation e.g. a long time series of airphotographs, maps, satellite imaginary, etc.

sea 1980 EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

5. COASTAL VULNERABILITY STUDIES IN GREECE

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

~2000 Km

`

GREEK COASTAL AREAS STUDIED

TYPES OF COASTAL AREAS STUDIED

•  coastal lagoons •  rural and urban areas •  sandy beaches •  civilian airports •  estuaries •  salt works •  heavily developed beaches •  mudflats EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

runw

sea

sea

ay

KORFOU AIRPORT

sea

KORFOU AIRPORT 50 cm SLR

KORFOU AIRPORT 100 cm SLR

Acheloos river delta

3.5 Km

2.5 Km

Sea level rise 0.5 m

400 ha are expected to be lost

Sea level rise 1.0 m

7.200 ha are expected to be lost

Climate change impacts on a salt work

Kitros

Korinos 5

Climate change impacts on a salt work Initial condition (1945)

Final condition with SLR=0.5m

Climate change impacts on a salt work Initial condition (1945)

Final condition with SLR=1.0m

CRETE STUDIES (ca.200 Km) CRETE FEATURES GREECE

Size: 260 X 60 Km, 1100 Km coastline Geologically unstable, frequent earthquakes

CRETE

Many submerged settlements, houses and harbour installations indicate that sea level has risen since ancient times

Many agricultural products and the leading touristic place in Greece EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

UPLAND CONVERSION DRIVEN BY CLIMATE CHANGES COASTAL LENGTH (Km)

UPLAND CONVERSION BY 0.5M SEA LEVEL RISE (Ha)

Hersonissos

20

470

23 Ha/Km

520 26 Ha/Km

Hersonissos

2.4

65

27

”

156 65 ”

Perivolia

1.5

3.2

2

”

6.5 4

Agia Marina

3.8

23

6

”

50

13 ”

Hersonissos

2.8

83

30

”

93

33 ”

Gouves

3.5

29

8

”

49

14 ”

Ierapetra

0.7

2.9

4

”

6

9 ”

Keratokampos

1.5

2

1

”

4

3 ”

Keratokampos

1.3

2.1

1

”

4.5

3 ”

COASTAL AREA

UPLAND CONVERSION BY 1.0M SEA LEVEL RISE (Ha)

12 Ha/Km

”

30 Ha/Km

CRETE ISLAND IMPACT ASSESSMENTS

In low lying areas we expect a shoreline retreat of (ca) 200 m by the end of st the 21 century ! EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

WESTERN THERMAIKOS GULF ASSESSMENT STUDIES (100 Km)

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

Projections of expected impacts to 2100 Thessaloniki plain

Thessaloniki

22,2 km2 0,8 km2

SLR= 0.5 m THERMAIKOS GULF

Projections of expected impacts to 2100 Thessaloniki plain

Thessaloniki

97,7 km2 0,4 km2

SLR= 1.0 M THERMAIKOS GULF

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Geodynamic (tsunami) and climatic assessments impacts (21Km) THE STUDIED AREA

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

1963 TSUNAMI EVENT

KORINTH GULF

Selianitika and Akoli

Coastal length : 21 Km Aeghio (30,000)

Korinth Gulf

Tsunami wave (F=40 y) Sea level rise Horizontal displacement Vulnerable area

3.0 m 0.5 m 170 m (average)

350 ha

5

Korinth Gulf

Tsunami wave (F= 103 y)

5.0 m

Sea level rise

1.0 m

Horizontal displacement

750 m (average)

Vulnerable area

740 ha

Greek shoreline retreat studies Location

Shoreline length (Km)

Character  of  the  area  

Short-term rate (m/y)

KOS island

0.7

beach

-1.12

0.3

Touristic beach

-2.30

2.8

Remote beach

-1.70

2.5

Beach / estuary

-0.45

5.0

beach

-0.10

3.2

Touristic beach

-0.15

0.5

Remote beach

+1.00

2.0

Remote beach

-1.00

1.0

Hotel beach

-1.20

16.0

Rural and urban beaches

-0.40

3.0

Touristic beach

-0.60

2.0

Touristic beach

-0.85

1.1

Remote beach

-0.10

46.0

All types of beach

-0.65

Greek shoreline retreat studies Lemnos island

Messologi Kavala coastal region

25.0 18.0

Remote beach Coastal lake Remote beach Airport beach front Remote beach Touristic beach All types of beach Delta Delta Estuary Touristic coastal region Touristic coastal region Touristic, remote, rural beaches Salt works Rural and urban beaches

Porto Lesvos island Katerini

42.0 2.5 22.0

Flood plains, coastal lake Touristic beach Salt works, low-lying area

-0.80 -0.40 -5.80

Kopraini beach Helopotamos (Katerini)

2.7 3.5

Beach next to harbour Small estuary

-0.70 +0.10

Korinos (Katerini)

2.6

Beach next to harbour

+0.10

Nestos river Acheloos river Louros river Crete island

2.2 4.5 3.1 4.4 2.2 1.9 36.0 17.0 12.0 5.5 8.5 10.0 175.0

-0.85 -4.70 -1.15 -1.20 -2.20 -1.20 -0.45 -0.90 -1.25 -0.80 -3.20 -0.20 -0.65 -0.70 -0.30

Greek shoreline retreat studies Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos Pelloponesos island island Thermaikos gulf

3.0 21.0 2.0 2.1 28.0 21.0 5.9 24.0 4.1 3.4 2.8 1.7 3.1 7.9 49.0 2.8 36 99.0

Ramsar region Rural and urban beaches Touristic beach Remote beach Rural and urban beaches Rural and urban beaches Coastal lake Mangrove Touristic beach Urban beach Urban beach Urban beach Remote beach Natura region All types of beach Hotel beach All types of beach Deltas, ramsar regions, remote beaches

-1.60 -2.40 -0.60 -0.80 -3.50 -0.60 -3.20 -1.40 -0.65 +0.10 +0.30 -2.70 -0.45 -2.70 -0.45 -3.10 -0.75 -1.20

CONCLUSIONS

Ø  Greece should begin to prepare itself for the consequences of climate change given the significant possibility and the magnitude of impacts.

Ø  We can also conclude for the 2000 Km studied that the average shoreline change rate exceeds the –1.0 m/y . Thus, up to the end of this century, the Greek coastal regions studied will lose more than 200 Km2

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

Frankfurter Rundschau (11/11/2014):

q  climate change threatens Greek coastal areas q  coastal land of 44 bE will be lost up to 2100

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014

RECOMMENDATIONS

Greece should prevent new close-toshore development in vulnerable areas.

Thus, if Greece wants to have a longterm, sustainable coastal planning, a legal frame should impose: planned (strategic) adaptation

K C A B T E S

E N I L

WE MUST ACT PROACTIVILY AND NOT REACTIVILY

and remember…..

“ the climate stability is incompatible to continuous economic growth and capitalism” Naomi Klein

Degrowth ?

EastMed Symposium, Limasol, Cyprus, 17-20/11/2014