DRAFT – November 19, 2014

5th AgMIP Global Workshop February 25-28th 2015 University of Florida Gainesville, Florida USA

DRAFT AgMIP 5th Global Workshop Agenda — November 18, 2014. This document lays out the aims and general structure for the workshop. We will be confirming speakers and sessions in the weeks ahead

Workshop Goals 1. Review AgMIP progress to date and enable AgMIP groups to interact, and plan 2. Prioritize next generation model improvements for sustainable intensification, climate change impacts, and adaptation 3. Advance strategy for coordinated global and regional assessments of climate impacts on food security for the IPCC 6th Assessment Report

Overview Day 1 Afternoon – State of AgMIP Day 2 Morning – Next Generation Models Day 2 Afternoon – Sustainable Intensification Day 3 – Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments Day 4 Morning – Wrap-up and the Path Forward

DRAFT – November 19, 2014

Agenda Day 1 – Wednesday, February 25th 10:00 am: Check-In, Registration 10:30 am – 12:00 pm: Introduction to AgMIP for Newcomers – 11:30 am – 1:00 pm: Lunch

Opening Plenary – State of Agricultural Modeling 1:00 pm: Jack M. Payne, Senior Vice President of Agriculture and Natural Resources University of Florida, Gainesville 1:15 pm: Welcome, Introductions, Workshop Goals, and Goals for Day 1 1:30 pm: Keynote 1 – Major challenges for society 2:00 pm: Keynote 2 – Major challenges for modeling community 2:30 pm: State of AgMIP 3:00 pm: AgMIP Work Group Introductions and Results: Speed Science Session 3:05 pm: Crop Model Intercomparisons and Improvement Wheat Team Maize Team Rice Team Sugarcane Team Potato Team Crop-Water-ET Bioenergy-Crop Model Crop Model Improvement Millet-Sorghum Team 3:45 pm: Global Assessments Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparisons Global Economic Model Intercomparisons 3:55 pm: Afternoon Break and poster viewing 4:25 pm: Regional Integrated Assessments Integrated Assessment Approach and Methods Sub-Saharan Africa Research

2

DRAFT – November 19, 2014 South Asia Stakeholder Unit 4:40 pm: Cross-Cutting Themes Quantifying and Managing Uncertainty Aggregation and Scaling Pilot Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) 4:55 pm: Key Interactions Soils and Crop Rotation Team Water Resources Livestock and Grasslands 5:05 pm: New Approaches for Climate-Crop Assessment Climate Forcing Datasets for Agriculture Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project MACSUR Impact Response Surfaces pSIMS 5:20 pm: Data and Information Technology Sentinel Site Classification AgMIP Data Exchange Agricultural Data Journal FACE-IT 5:40 pm: AgMIP Partners and Regional Projects MACSUR CropM and LiveM CCAFS Yield Gap Atlas MODEXTREME EUROCLIMA 6:10 pm Adjourn Steering Council Dinner

3

DRAFT – November 19, 2014

Day 2 – Thursday, February 26th Morning Plenary: Opportunities for Model Improvement 8:30 am: Reconvene Day 2 and Goals 8:45 am: Keynote 3: Next Generation Models 9:15 am: Discussion 9:45 am: Charge to AgMIP Work Groups Breakout Session: Toward Next-Generation Model Improvements  Summarize Work Group activities and discuss results  Identify and prioritize key topics for model improvement and integration for sustainable intensification and, impact and adaptation assessments – e.g., changes in climate extremes, crop/livestock systems, pest and disease pressures, ozone concentration; what others are important?  Scope coming year of Work Group activities, including interactions with other groups

Morning Breakouts: Toward Next-Generation Model Improvements 10:00 am: AgMIP Work Group Breakouts A. Global Economics B. AgGRID C. Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) D. Integrated Regional Assessments E. Crop Model Intercomparison and Improvement i. Crop Model Group 1: ET processes ii. Crop Model Group 2: Multi-model intercomparison iii. Crop Model Group 3: Extreme Response F. Data, Decision Support Systems and IT G. Livestock and Grasslands H. Pests/Diseases I. Water Resources J. Soils and Crop Rotation K. Nutrition L. Interoperable model components M. Farming system platforms 10:30 -11:00 am: Morning break and poster viewing Breakouts Continue

4

DRAFT – November 19, 2014 12:45 pm: Lunch  Poster Viewing  Self-organized Work Groups

Afternoon Plenary – Modeling for Sustainable Agriculture Decisions 2:20 pm: Afternoon Goals  Develop plans for integrated framework to model sustainable agriculture decisions  Facilitate interaction between AgMIP and other initiatives  Further stakeholder interaction process  Finalize plans for upcoming year 2:30 pm: Keynote 4: Stakeholder needs for sustainable agriculture decision-making 3:00 pm: Keynote 5: Modeling needs for sustainable intensification 3:30 pm: Discussion 3:45 pm: Afternoon break and poster viewing

Afternoon Parallel Sessions – Tools and linkages for Sustainable Agriculture 4:15 pm: Parallel Session 1: New approaches for Crop-Climate Analyses - Major findings, improvements achieved, priorities for further improvement Climate Datasets for Agricultural Modeling CCAFS CRAFT Seasonal Analysis Tool The AgMIP Impacts Explorer FACE-IT Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project Sentinel Sites 4:15 pm: Parallel Session 2: Global Model Intercomparison and Improvement - Major findings, improvements achieved, priorities for further improvement Simulation of Extremes in GGCMs Validation of GGCMs in historical period GGCM response to historical datasets Global Economic Model Intercomparisons 4:15 pm: Parallel Session 3: Sustainable Intensification - Major findings, improvements achieved, priorities for further improvement Development of Representative Agricultural Pathways Development of Adaptation Packages Modeling Rotations and Soil Sustainability

5

DRAFT – November 19, 2014 5:30 pm: End-of-day plenary report back and discussion 6:15 pm: Adjourn

Reception, Emerson Alumni Hall – (room) 7:00 pm: Reception with AgMIP Poster Session (see also Appendix I)  Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia Regional Research & Coordination Team Posters  Work Group Posters  Partner Posters  Others

6

DRAFT – November 19, 2014

Day 3 – Friday, February 27th Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments 8:30 am: Reconvene and Day 3 Goals  Share regional assessment results  Identify requirements to integrate across scales for consistent climate impact assessments  Develop strategies to incorporate important factors not currently included in assessments 8:45 am: Keynote 6: What we wish we had for AR5 9:15 am: Keynote 7: Stakeholder Needs for Global Assessments: USDA and USAID perspectives 9:45 am: Stakeholder Needs for Regional Assessments 10:15 am: Discussion 10:30 am: morning break and poster viewing

Morning Parallel Sessions – Integration and Regional Results from the AgMIP Research Community 11:00 am: Parallel Session 4: Cross-cutting Themes and Key Interactions - Major findings, priorities to support more robust assessments Quantifying and Managing Uncertainty Aggregation and Scaling Pilot Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) Soils and Crop Rotation Team Water Resources Pests and Diseases 11:00 am: Parallel Session 5: Regional initiatives - Major findings, regional strengths and weaknesses, priorities for further development and collaboration Sub-Saharan Africa Research South Asia Europe – MACSUR Latin America and the Caribbean East Asia North America 11:00 am: Parallel Session 6: Point-based Model Intercomparison and Improvement - Major findings, improvements achieved, priorities for further improvement Wheat Team Maize Team 7

DRAFT – November 19, 2014 Rice Team Sugarcane Team Potato Team Bioenergy Team Livestock Team Evapotranspiration 12:00 pm: Plenary report back and discussion 12:45 pm: Lunch  Poster Viewing  Self-organized Work Groups

Afternoon Plenary: Toward Integration across Scales 2:20 pm: AgMIP Coordinated Regional and Global Studies for IPCC AR6 2:50 pm: Discussion 3:10 pm: Charge to Work Group: Coordinated Regional and Global Studies  Determine the major components required for coordinated regional and global studies  Identify the flow of useful information across scales  Interact among disciplines and scales to ensure fruitful linkages 3:20 pm: Afternoon break and poster viewing

Afternoon Breakouts – Scoping the components of a Coordinated Assessment 3:45 pm: AgMIP Coordinated Regional and Global Studies Workgroups A. Global to local flow of information B. Local to global flow of information C. Scope of scenarios required for AR6 assessments D. Modeling adaptation from local to regional scales E. Pests and diseases F. Data and IT Backbone of linked studies G. Consistency of regional and global results 5:30 pm: End-of-day plenary report back and discussion 6:15 pm: Adjourn

8

DRAFT – November 19, 2014

Day 4 – Saturday, February 28th Morning Plenary: 8:30 am: Charge to Work Groups: Wrap-up and stakeholder process  Finalize plans for the year  Discuss stakeholder process and pathway to impact

Morning Breakouts – Work Group Wrap-ups 9:00 am: AgMIP Work Group wrap-up sessions A. Global Economics B. AgGRID C. Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) D. Integrated Regional Assessments E. Crop Model Intercomparison and Improvement i. Crop Model Group 1: ET processes ii. Crop Model Group 2: Multi-model intercomparison iii. Crop Model Group 3: Extreme Response F. Data, Decision Support Systems and IT G. Livestock and Grasslands H. Pests/Diseases I. Water Resources J. Soils and Crop Rotation K. Nutrition L. Interoperable model components M. Farming system platforms 10:30 am: Morning break and poster viewing 10:45 pm: Report back from AgMIP Work Groups – Plans for coming year

Closing Plenary – The Way Forward 11:30 am: What we’ve learned 12:15 pm: Feedback from Steering Council and Donor Forum 1:30 pm: Adjourn Steering Council Lunch

9

DRAFT – November 19, 2014

Appendix I: Poster Program

Poster Program 5th AgMIP Global Workshop February 25-28th 2015 University of Florida Gainesville, Florida USA Posters will be limited to 4 feet high x 6 feet wide (1.22M high x 1.83M wide). Allow a 4-inch x 4inch space (10.16cm x 10.16cm) for a poster number in the upper left-hand corner of your poster. Each poster will be assigned a number in advance so that you will know where to place your poster.

Regional Research Team Posters Work Group Posters Partner Posters Others

10