DOWNTOWN VICTORIA RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Prepared for City of Victoria

April 2011

DOWNTOWN VICTORIA RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS

Prepared for City of Victoria

Prepared by McComb Group, Ltd.

April 2011

© Copyright 2011 McComb Group, Ltd.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter

Subject

Page

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS ...................................................................................v Summary ................................................................................................................ vi INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................1 Report Purpose .........................................................................................................2 I

VICTORIA STUDY AREA ....................................................................................3 Traffic Counts ..........................................................................................................4 Future Land Use .......................................................................................................5

II

VICTORIA CUSTOMER SURVEY .......................................................................6

III

VICTORIA MERCHANT INTERVIEWS SUMMARY ......................................10 Where do your customers live/come from? ...........................................................10 Are there other businesses in Victoria that attract customers that shop your store? .........................................................................................................10 What are Downtown Victoria’s strengths for your business? ...............................10 What are Downtown Victoria’s weaknesses for your business? ...........................11 What types of business would you like to see in Downtown Victoria?.................11 Have your sales increased or decreased since 2007? .............................................12 Do you have any plans for changes to your business in the next 3 years? ............12 What changes within Victoria do you believe would improve business in Downtown Victoria? .........................................................................................13 Summary ................................................................................................................13

IV

VICTORIA TRADE AREAS ................................................................................14 Competitive Retail Areas .......................................................................................15 Residential Growth ................................................................................................16 Population and Households....................................................................................18 Household Income .................................................................................................20 Demographic Characteristics .................................................................................21 Purchasing Power...................................................................................................25

V

VICTORIA RETAIL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ........................................26 Retail Sales.............................................................................................................26 Sales Potential ........................................................................................................27 Supportable Square Feet ........................................................................................29 Summary ................................................................................................................30 APPENDICES ......................................................................... under separate cover

i

LIST OF TABLES

Table

Title

Page

1

Victoria Retail Area Tenant Mix .............................................................................4

2

Victoria Traffic Counts ............................................................................................5

3

Victoria Customer Survey; March 2011: Survey Participants .................................6

4

Victoria Customer Survey; March 2011: Survey Respondents by Residence Location .............................................................................................6

5

Victoria Customer Survey; March 2011: Survey Respondents That Work In Victoria by Residence Location ......................................................................7

6

Victoria Customer Survey; March 2011: Survey Respondents by Reason For Stopping ........................................................................................................7

7

Victoria Customer Survey; March 2011: Survey Respondents by Gender .............8

8

Victoria Customer Survey; March 2011: Survey Respondents by Day of Survey ..................................................................................................................8

9

Victoria Customer Survey; March 2011: Survey Respondents by Type of Business ...............................................................................................................9

10

Competitive Retail Areas .......................................................................................15

11

Victoria Trade Area and Southwest Growth Corridor Residential Building Permits; 1990 to 2009.........................................................................17

12

Southwest Growth Corridor -- North Segment Household Projections; 2010 to 2030 Metro Area and Victoria Trade Area ..........................................18

13

Victoria Convenience and Destination Trade Areas, and MinneapolisSt. Paul MSA: Population and Households 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated ..................................................................................19

14

Victoria Convenience and Destination Trade Areas, and MinneapolisSt. Paul MSA: Average and Median Household Income: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated............................................................20

15

Victoria Convenience and Destination Trade Areas, and MinneapolisSt. Paul MSA: Household Income Distribution: 1990 and 2000 Census; 2010 and 2015 Estimated ..................................................................................20

16

Victoria Convenience Trade Area Demographic and Income Snapshot ...............22

17

Victoria Destination Trade Area Demographic and Income Snapshot ..................23

18

Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA Demographic and Income Snapshot ..........................24

19

Victoria Trade Area Retail Purchasing Power; 2010 and 2015 .............................25

20

City of Victoria Market Share and Trade Area Sales ............................................27

ii

LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Table 21 22

Title

Page

Victoria Retail Purchasing Power, Market Share, and Sales Potential; 2015 By Merchandise Category .................................................................................28 Victoria Retail Sales Potential and Supportable Space; 2015 by Merchandise Category .......................................................................................28

23

Estimated Victoria Retail and Service Potential ....................................................29

23A

Victoria Trade Area Supportable Space by Merchandise and Services Category ............................................................................................................32

iii

LIST OF MAPS

Map

Title

Page

1

Downtown Victoria Study Area...............................................................................3

2

Victoria Customer Spotting and Convenience and Destination Trade Area ...........9

3

Victoria Convenience and Destination Trade Areas ..............................................14

4

Competitive Shopping Areas and Victoria Trade Areas........................................16

5

Victoria Convenience and Destination Trade Areas 2015 Household Density...............................................................................................................19

6

Victoria Convenience and Destination Trade Areas 2015 Household Income: Percent Above $100,000 .....................................................................21

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1

Title

Page

Downtown Victoria 2030 Future Land Use .............................................................5

iv

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

McComb Group, Ltd. was engaged by the City of Victoria to update our 2008 downtown market analysis. The objective of this engagement was to determine additional retail store and service establishments that can be located in Victoria. Highlights of the findings are summarized below: Victoria has 73 retail and service establishments, which is an increase of 28 establishments since 2007. Retail services have experienced the largest increases from 23 establishments in 2007 to 48 in 2011. The highest increases were in the professional services and personal care/personal service categories. Retail establishments have grown by three businesses including a grocery store. ♦ Traffic counts in Victoria, in general have been increasing, which indicates growing support for retail establishments in Victoria. ♦ The majority of Victoria’s retail customers live in Victoria, Waconia, Chaska, Excelsior, and Chanhassen. Of those customers that work, they are more likely to be employed in Victoria or Waconia. Victoria shoppers’ reasons for stopping at retail establishments in Victoria are typically “close to home” and “regular customer.” ♦ In general, retailers enjoy being part of the Victoria business community because of its quaint, small town feel and its central location. However, retailers are concerned about Victoria’s lack of identity with area consumers and the lack of population within Victoria. ♦ Victoria retailers desire to grow their businesses; however they are concerned that there is not enough available space in Victoria. ♦ Downtown Victoria has two trade areas: one for convenience establishments and a second for stores that draw from a further distance referred to as destination trade area. The convenience trade area covers approximately 71 square miles and has a 2010 population of 30,753. The destination trade area covers approximately 80 miles and has a 2010 population of 91,975. ♦ Victoria is surrounded by several larger established retail areas such as Waconia with 182 business establishments and Chanhassen with 179 business establishments. ♦ Population and households in Victoria’s convenience and destination trade areas have been growing at over twice as fast as the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA. Convenience trade area population is expected to increase at almost 3.5 percent annually through 2015, reaching 36,494. Households are projected to grow at 2.78 percent annually to 12,381 in 2015. Destination trade area population is expected to increase at 1.75 percent annually to 100,320 by 2015 and households are expected in increase by 1.80 percent annually to 36,894 by 2015.

v  

♦ In the convenience trade area, average household income was $114,654 in 2010, compared to $120,703 in the destination trade area and $86,856 in the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA. Average household incomes for these three areas are estimated to grow through 2015, increasing Victoria’s convenience trade area average household income to $120,897 in 2015 and destination trade area to $128,194. ♦ Total purchasing power for Victoria’s trade area was estimated at $1.6 billion in 2010 and is expected to increase to almost $1.8 billion by 2015, an annual growth rate of 1.9 percent in constant 2010 dollars. Purchasing power for shopping goods in this trade area is expected to increase from $476.0 million in 2010 to $521.9 million in 2015. Convenience goods purchasing power for this trade area was estimated at $271.0 million in 2010, estimated to increase to $297.1 million by 2015. ♦ Victoria has expanded its retail and service establishments over the past four years. These additional stores have expanded Victoria’s trade areas and attracted more customers to the community. Victoria’s favorable trade area demographic characteristics will be attractive to retailers that desire to serve Victoria’s growing trade area households. Market sales potential analysis indicates the most likely retail stores and services that could locate in Victoria over the short-term are convenience retail and service businesses normally associated with a neighborhood shopping area. These stores generally include supermarkets, drug stores, liquor stores, hardware stores, and personal services. Convenience goods stores, services, and food service represent the largest short-term potential for Victoria. Stores and services that are supportable in Victoria are contained in Table 23A at the end of the report. Victoria has attracted unique retailers and services that attract customers from a larger area. Market analysis indicates demand/or additional unique retail stores. To be successful in Victoria, these stores need to draw customers from the destination trade area. Summary Victoria has expanded its retail and service establishments. Some businesses have been so successful that they have outgrown their existing space and have been unable to find a new space in Victoria. It’s important to retain successful business establishments because they are attracting a growing number of customers. Victoria should encourage the expansion of retail and service space to accommodate these growing businesses and new businesses. Victoria’s trade areas have expanded providing a broader base of potential customers. All Victoria businesses will benefit if their market share increases. Increasing market share should be a major collective marketing effort involving all merchants. One of the primary functions of a shopping area is for customers of one business to shop at other businesses. Cross marketing efforts should be initiated and Victoria should be marketed as a shopping area.

vi  

INTRODUCTION

McComb Group, Ltd. was engaged by the City of Victoria to update our 2008 downtown market analysis. The objective of this engagement was to determine additional retail store and service establishments that can be located in Victoria. Work tasks conducted during this engagement are summarized below. ♦ Downtown’s retail area and downtown plan was evaluated. Retail, food service, and service establishments in downtown and along TH-5 were identified and categorized by type. Factors that were evaluated include, but were not limited to: ingress and egress, access, visibility, current and future traffic counts, and relationship to adjacent uses. ♦ Competitive shopping areas were identified and evaluated. Principal competitors were identified and evaluated for anchor stores and tenant mix. New developments anticipated within the market area were identified to the extent possible to determine possible competitive impacts. ♦ Retail store owners and/or managers were interviewed to obtain their impressions on retailing in downtown Victoria and to obtain their input on strengths and weaknesses of downtown for their business and suggestions for improvements. Those businesses that were interviewed during the previous study were re-contacted to determine their impressions of changes that have occurred during the past three years. ♦ Businesses in downtown Victoria were asked to participate in a survey of their customers to determine where they live and work, and why they shop at that business establishment. This information was used to help identify the primary trade area for downtown Victoria businesses and the amount of inflow patronage. ♦ The trade areas for downtown Victoria was delineated based on arterial road patterns, competitive shopping areas, customer survey results, and McComb Group experience. The economy of the trade areas was analyzed to identify those factors that generate support for retail and service establishments. Factors that were evaluated include, but were not limited to: employment, population, households, and household income. Trade area growth trends were evaluated to determine residential and employment growth potential for 2010 and 2015. Retail and service purchasing power of trade area households were estimated using McComb Group’s proprietary retail purchasing power software that contains spending potential for over 120 business establishments. ♦ Market demand for retail, food service, and service business establishments in downtown Victoria were identified based on estimated trade area population and household growth taking into consideration competitive impacts, trade area demographics, and trade area purchasing power. Based on analysis of purchasing power, estimated market share, competitive shopping centers, and future retail trends, future demand for retail space was estimated by business type. Estimates of retail, food service, and service space

1

supportable by sales potential was prepared for target years 2012, 2015, and 2020. Sales potential was converted to square feet of building area by type of business establishment. This report contains the primary information needed to support the principal conclusions. However, in a report of this nature, it is not possible to include all of the information that was developed and evaluated. Any additional information will be furnished upon request. Report Purpose This report was prepared in accordance with our proposal dated April 13, 2010. This report was prepared with the understanding that the results of our work will be used by the client to determine additional retail store and service establishments that can be located in Victoria. Our report was prepared for that purpose and is subject to the following qualifications: •

Our analysis did not ascertain the legal and regulatory requirements applicable to this project including zoning, other state, and local government regulations, permits, and licenses. No effort was made to determine the possible effect on the proposed project of present or future federal, state, or local legislation, or any environmental or ecological matters.

•

Our report and analysis was based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed from research of the market, knowledge of the industry and discussions with the client. Some assumptions inevitably will not materialize and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur; therefore, actual results achieved will vary from the analysis.

•

Our analysis did not evaluate management’s effectiveness nor are we responsible for future marketing efforts and other management actions upon which actual results are dependent.

Our report is intended solely for the purpose described above and should not be used for any other purpose without our prior written permission. Permission for other use of the report will be granted only upon meeting company standards for the proposed use.

2

Chapter I VICTORIA STUDY AREA

The City of Victoria is located approximately seven miles west of downtown Chanhassen on TH5. Downtown Victoria is served by TH-5 from the east and west, and CSAH 11 the north and south. Victoria has 73 retail and service establishments, as shown in Table 1. These establishments are located in the downtown area and along TH-5. Map 1 DOWNTOWN VICTORIA STUDY AREA

Victoria’s current downtown area is generally bounded by TH-5 on the south, Lake Minnetonka LRT Regional Trail and Steiger Lake Lane on the north, and Commercial Avenue on the east, as shown on Map 1. Several businesses are located south on TH-5 west of CSAH 11. Areas located east and west of the current downtown area are guided commercial in the comprehensive plan. Victoria’s commercial is located on the southern edge of the Carver Park Reserve, which occupies a large portion of Victoria north of downtown creating a physical barrier to north/south travel. Most of Victoria’s retail stores and services are located in downtown, shown on Map 1, between Steiger Lake Lane and TH-5.

3

Currently, Victoria has 73 retail and service establishments, which is an increase of 28 establishments since the last retail report was conducted in 2007. The retail service industry has seen the highest increase in establishments, increasing from 23 in 2007 to 48 in 2011, with the highest increases being in the professional services and personal care/personal service categories. Retail establishments have grown by three businesses. Food service, financial services, and professional services are the largest categories in downtown Victoria. Table 1 VICTORIA RETAIL AREA TENANT M IX Establishment Type CONVENIENCE RETAIL Food Liquor Floral FOOD S ERVICE Full Service Limited Service CONVENIENCE/GAS OLINE Convenience/Gasoline S HOPPING GOODS Other Shopping Goods Pre-Owned M erchandise HOME IMPROVEMENT Home Improvement Lawn & Garden AUTOMOTIVE Auto/RV Sales Other Equipment Sales/M arine Subtotal S ERVICES Auto Services Personal Care Personal Services Laundry/Dry Cleaning Financial Real Estate Insurance M edical Dental Entertainment/Recreation Professional Services Other Services Subtotal TOTAL

2007

2011

1 2 1

1 2 1

5 2

5 2

2

2

1 2

3 1

3

4 1

1 2 22 2 1

4 2 3 3 1 1 1 5 23 45

3 25 1 3 5 1 7 3 4 6 2 3 7 6 48 73

S o urc e : M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

Traffic Counts Traffic counts in Victoria, in general, have been increasing, as shown in Table 2. TH-5 traffic counts east of Victoria Drive have increased from 17,000 in 2004-2005 to 17,700 in 2008-2009. Traffic counts west of this intersection increased from 16,000 to 19,200 during the same period. Traffic counts on Victoria Drive south of TH-5 have increased from 6,800 to 7,200. Increasing traffic counts indicate growing support for retail establishments in Victoria. 4

Table 2 VICTORIA TRAFFIC COUNTS Location

2004-2005

2006-2007

2008-2009

16,000 17,000

18,000 19,100 15,000

19,200 17,700 16,000

Victoria Drive South of TH-5 North of TH-5

6,800 2,800

8,200 3,100

7,200 2,250

Other Downtown Traffic Counts Victoria Drive in Downtown Steiger Lake Ln West of Victoria Drive Steiger Lake Ln East of Victoria Drive Quamoclit Street North of TH-5

1,400 305 820 690

1,700 375 710 620

2,150 560 660 620

TH-5 West of Victoria Drive - South East of Victoria Drive West of Victoria Drive - North

So urce: M nDOT, Carver Co unty and City o f Victo ria.

Future Land Use Victoria’s 2030 Future Land Use plan, contained in Figure 1, shows downtown commercial extending along TH-5 from 78th Street to west of Victoria Drive near Auburn Lake. This results in a linear commercial area bounded by a state highway that will carry increasing amounts of traffic. Downtown should be visible from TH-5 and the frontage should provide visibility to the portions of downtown that do not have frontage on TH-5. Steiger Lake Lane should be an important part of downtown’s circulation system and an important entrance to downtown from the east and west. Figure 1 DOWNTOWN VICTORIA 2030 FUTURE LAND USE

Map Date April 2008

5

Chapter II VICTORIA CUSTOMER SURVEY

Retail and service businesses in downtown Victoria were asked to conduct a brief survey of their customers as part of this study. Eleven businesses participated in this survey to determine home address, work zip code, and trip purpose of their customers. Businesses that participated in the survey are listed in Table 3. These business participants collected information from 717 respondents, which provided important information on downtown Victoria’s customer base. One business provided addresses for its customers for the past year. This information was used in analyzing downtown Victoria’s customer base, but is not included in the customer survey results. Table 3 VICTORIA CUSTOM ER SURVEY; M ARCH 2011 Business Participants Cabin Fever Sporting Goods Dairy Queen Fresh Seasons M arket Holiday StationStores #360 Power of Life Chiropractic Salon SPAtoria

School of Wise The Parlour Salon & Spa Vic's Bar & Grill Victoria Auto Werks Victoria Rose Floral

Contributed Customer Information Timberwall

Results from the Victoria customer survey were used to determine the trade area of downtown Victoria. Survey responses by city, as shown in Table 4, show that 83.8 percent of the survey respondents live within the Victoria trade area, with half (50.5 percent) of those respondents living in Victoria. Inflow customers (respondents that live outside the trade area) represented 15.9 percent. Table 4 VICTORIA CUSTOM ER SURVEY; M ARCH 2011 SURVEY RESPONDENTS BY RESIDENCE LOCATION Residence Location

Number

Percent

Trade Area Victoria Waconia Chaska Excelsior Chanhassen St. Bonifacius M innetrista Other Subtotal

362 69 68 34 25 21 11 11 601

50.5 % 9.6 9.5 4.7 3.5 2.9 1.5 1.5 83.8 %

Inflow

114

15.9 %

No Response Total S o urc e : M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

6

2

0.3 %

717

100.0 %

Only 304 respondents (42.4 percent) divulged a work zip code. Of those 304 respondents, 103 or 33.9 percent work in Victoria, as shown in Table 5. Sixty-two percent of respondents live and work in Victoria. More importantly, 39 respondents or 37.9 percent of the respondents that work in Victoria live outside the city indicating that business employees are also customers of local businesses. Table 5 VICTORIA CUSTOM ER SURVEY; M ARCH 2011 SURVEY RESPONDENTS THAT WORK IN VICTORIA BY RESIDENCE LOCATION Work in Victoria Number Percent

Residence Location Trade Area Victoria Waconia Chaska Excelsior Chanhassen Saint Bonifacius M innetrista Other Subtotal

64 14 5 2 3 2 1 1 92

62.1 % 13.6 4.9 1.9 2.9 1.9 1.0 1.0 89.3 %

Inflow

11

10.7 %

Total

103

100.0 %

S o urc e : M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

Survey responses to the question: “Why did you stop here today?” are contained in Table 6.” “Close to home” (75.2 percent) and “regular customer” (73.8 percent) were the most frequent responses for trade area respondents; while “regular customer” (61.7 percent) was the most frequent response from inflow customers. Interestingly, 18 percent of the customers living outside the trade area consider Victoria “close to home.” Over 20 percent of the respondents shopped because it was “close to work,” demonstrating that downtown Victoria draws customers from the area’s businesses. Responses for “running errands” and “driving by” are typical of response levels in other surveys. Table 6

VICTORIA CUSTOMER SURVEY; MARCH 2011 SURVEY RESPONDENTS BY REASON FOR STOPPING

Reason Close to Home Close to Work Driving By Running Errands Regular Customer Other Total Respondents

Trade Area Number Percent 439 122 90 99 431 60 584

Inflow Number Percent

75.2 % 20.9 15.4 17.0 73.8 10.3 100.0 %

S o urc e : M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

7

21 30 17 8 71 23 115

18.3 % 26.1 14.8 7.0 61.7 20.0 100.0 %

Total Number Percent 460 152 107 107 502 83 699

65.8 % 21.7 15.3 15.3 71.8 11.9 100.0 %

The distribution of female and male respondents, shown in Table 7, was higher for females (48.4 percent) compared to males (33.6 percent), which is typical for surveys of this type. Over 16 percent of respondents did not respond to this question. Some respondents indicated both genders, which appears to reflect shopper parties of two or more. Table 7 VICTORIA CUSTOM ER SURVEY; M ARCH 2011 SURVEY RESPONDENTS BY GENDER

Gender Female M ale Both Subtotal No Response Total

Trade Area Number Percent 306 183 8 497 104 601

Inflow Number Percent

50.9 % 30.4 1.3 82.7 % 17.3 100.0 %

41 58 3 102 14 116

35.3 % 50.0 2.6 87.9 % 12.1 100.0 %

Total Number Percent 347 241 11 599 118 717

48.4 % 33.6 1.5 83.5 % 16.5 100.0 %

S o urc e : M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

Survey responses for all respondents by day are shown in Table 8. Responses were highest earlier in the week on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday ranging from 15.9 percent to 17.3 percent. Thursday had the lowest response with 9.5 percent. Table 8 VICTORIA CUSTOM ER SURVEY; M ARCH 2011 SURVEY RESPONDENTS BY DAY OF SURVEY

Day Sunday M onday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Subtotal

Trade Area Number Percent 97 93 103 102 51 74 73 593

Inflow Number Percent

16.4 % 15.7 17.4 17.2 8.6 12.5 12.3 100.0 %

21 19 11 20 16 16 10 113

18.6 % 16.8 9.7 17.7 14.2 14.2 8.8 100.0 %

Total Number Percent 118 112 114 122 67 90 83 706

16.7 % 15.9 16.1 17.3 9.5 12.7 11.8 100.0 %

S o urc e : M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

Customer survey home addresses were geocoded and plotted on a map. The distribution of households cluster in Victoria with a smaller concentration in Waconia and St. Bonifacius, as shown on Map 2. Customer residences are also distributed to the north, east, and southeast. Customer spotting analysis by type of business (Table 9) demonstrated that Victoria had two trade areas: convenience and destination. Convenience establishments drew 67 to 82 percent of their customers from the convenience trade area. On average, 79 percent of the respondents lived in the convenience trade area delineated by the green line on Map 2. Excluding respondents from Fresh Seasons Market, 71 percent of the customers were from the convenience trade area and 29 percent represented inflow customers. The destination trade area represents businesses that draw their customers from a wider area including Chanhassen, Chaska, and several Lake Minnetonka communities. Businesses served 8

by the destination trade area drew 62 to 79 percent of their customers from that area. The average was about 73 percent. Map 2 VICTORIA CUSTOMER SPOTTING AND CONVENIENCE AND DESTINATION TRADE AREAS

Table 9 VICTORIA CUSTOM ER SURVEY; M ARCH 2011 SURVEY RESPONDENTS BY TYPE OF BUSINESS

Business Type

Trade Area Number Percent

Inflow Number Percent

Total Number Percent

CONVENIENCE TRADE AREA Food Store Floral Convenience/Gasoline Auto Service Subtotal

218 20 56 8 302

82.3 % 69.0 72.7 66.7 % 78.9 %

47 9 21 4 81

17.7 % 31.0 27.3 33.3 % 21.1 %

265 29 77 12 383

100.0 % 100.0 100.0 100.0 % 100.0 %

DES TINATION TRADE AREA Full Service Restaurant Limited Service Restaurant Other Shopping Goods Personal Care M edical Subtotal

75 53 37 57 23 245

75.0 79.1 61.7 73.1 79.3 73.4 %

25 14 23 21 6 89

25.0 20.9 38.3 26.9 20.7 26.6 %

100 67 60 78 29 334

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 %

TOTAL

547

76.3 %

170

23.7 %

717

100.0 %

S o urc e : M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

9

Chapter III VICTORIA MERCHANT INTERVIEWS SUMMARY

Interviews were conducted with 12 Victoria area business owners or managers. The primary purpose of these interviews was to determine opinions related to the strengths and weaknesses of downtown Victoria and solicit ideas and opinions regarding changes to retail within Victoria. All responses are verbatim and reflect the respondents’ personal opinions; they were not screened for accuracy. Where do your customers live/come from? When asked where their customers live, respondents mentioned the following cites: Victoria (6 times), Waconia (7 times), and Chaska (5 times). Businesses mentioned that their customers also come from the surrounding areas such as Eden Prairie, Excelsior, Chanhassen, Carver, Shorewood, Minnetrista and St. Bonifacius. Some Victoria businesses are able to also draw customers from farther away areas such as Minneapolis, Bloomington, other western suburbs, Minnetonka and the Lakes Areas. Other responses included “southwest metro, we cover a large area”, “80 percent local and 20 percent highway”, “80 to 85 percent of my business is over the phone or internet,” there is “no pattern” and “95 percent are from referrals and five percent are from the Victoria Newsletter.” Are there other businesses in Victoria that attract customers that shop your store? One-half of respondents felt that Fresh Seasons Market attracted customers that also shopped at their stores. Respondents also felt that food/entertainment places, such as Floyds, Vics, and School of Wise also attract customers to Victoria that may shop at their stores. Other responses included: • • • • •

Arboretum Cabin Fever (in summer) Nice Buildings Live music drives traffic Cross-promotions also help to bring in customers from other businesses

What are Downtown Victoria’s strengths for your business? When asked to describe the primary strengths of doing business in downtown Victoria, over onethird of the respondents felt that the quaint, small town charm was a strength of Victoria. The fact that Victoria is centrally located and close to other small towns was also mentioned by onequarter of the respondents. More common responses included good income levels, close to attractions/parks, rent is reasonable, and Victoria is a growing community. Other responses included are listed below: • • •

Not many, the new grocery store, but it doesn’t bring in a lot of out of towners HEI attracts customers Highway 5

10

• • •

School District Not commercialized, few chains Sense of community and support of local officials

In general, these comments suggest that business owners have positive feelings about Victoria’s retail area. They continue to see Victoria as a growing community that still provides a quaint, small town feel. Business owners felt that the fact that Victoria is centrally located and in close proximity to other small towns, is a strength that Victoria offers local business owners. What are Downtown Victoria’s weaknesses for your business? When asked to describe the weaknesses of doing business in downtown Victoria, half of the business owners interviewed felt that the size of Victoria and small population was the biggest weakness. Five respondents mentioned that they felt that Victoria lacked identity or people didn’t know where Victoria was located. Four respondents felt that there were not enough businesses in Victoria and four respondents felt that parking was an issue. Other respondents were concerned about the fact that people don’t shop local and that the signage ordinances limited their visibility. Some verbatim responses to this question are included below: • • • • • •

Change of law for snowmobiles slowed our traffic Road closing of Highway 5 will impact our business The city gave us a hard time when we built People cannot spend a day in Victoria We need a place to gather, social area, common area with park benches Not enough access to the lake

There were a variety of issues and concerns from downtown Victoria business owners; however, the most frequently noted concern is the lack of people (population base) and the lack of identity. What types of business would you like to see in Downtown Victoria? When asked “What types of business would you like to see in downtown Victoria?” the answers were quite varied. Three respondents asked for a drug store. Two respondents asked for access to the beach, parks and piers. Other ideas that had the support of two respondents included: medical clinic, eating establishment, hardware store, and gift store. Other ideas mentioned were: • • • • • •

Anything/More Retail Library Book Store Senior Housing Offices Big Companies

The following opinions were also offered: • • •

Retail is not sustainable because of the population. We need more employment It was a gamble to come here and open business

11

• • •

The challenge is the big boxes. There are a lot of bodies of water around here, we need activities centered around the water and bike trails. More development like Clock Tower – mixed use.

Have your sales increased or decreased since 2007? Four of the 12 respondents have seen increases in their sales since 2007, with one retailer experiencing a 60 to 70 percent increase and another retailer that almost doubled their sales within the last five years. Other retailers have seen modest increases for the same period of time. Retailers attributed these increases to the following: • • • •

Bad economy works for them We’ve passed our learning curve and improved operations Effort in marketing, direct advertising, trade shows and more promotion Acquired a new business and merged client list

Three respondents stated that their sales have decreased since 2007, the decreases ranged from five percent to 60 percent. Two retailers stated that their sales have been flat since 2007. One retailer said that they were meeting sales expectations since they opened; while one other retailer is struggling to meet their sales projections. All of the merchants who saw decreases felt the economy was the reason for the decrease in sales. Other explanations given for the decrease in sales are: • • •

Competition came in Lack of homes being built Housing market

Do you have any plans for changes to your business in the next 3 years? Eight of the twelve respondents have plans to grow their business within the next three years. Two of the respondents have been looking for larger spaces within Victoria and have been unsuccessful, leading them to find spaces in other communities. Two of the respondents are currently looking for new spaces within Victoria and three respondents are anticipating growth, but have no firm plans at this time. Other responses to this question are listed below: • • • •

We’re trying to expand, but the watershed district is hard to work with We love our space; however, if we wanted to expand, we might have to go elsewhere because there is no space that is affordable in Victoria Our plans include nothing major, would like to add bank or pharmacy We intended to grow when we built, we have the land; however, it is off in the future now.

It is encouraging that two-thirds of the respondents have the desire and/or need to grow their business and that most respondents desire to stay in Victoria. However, it is concerning that retailers are concerned about the lack of available space and that some of the existing retailers are being forced to move out of Victoria because of this.

12

What changes within Victoria do you believe would improve business in Downtown Victoria? When Victoria business owners were asked for ideas or changes that would improve the general state of retail in downtown Victoria for all downtown retailers, the improvements that were mentioned most often were: increased population, more retail, and more available retail space. Other responses to this question varied in nature and are listed below: • • • • • • • • •

More support from city (2 respondents) Identity, Victoria needs to figure out who they are (2 respondents) Signage (2 respondents) Parking (2 respondents) Addition of drug store or hardware store Employ more people If I knew what that was, I would be able to get people to come here! More space for businesses with names and weight. Look at Linden Hills – they have name equity The 13 acre development could improve our development

Summary The purpose of this survey was to determine the respondents’ opinions and perceptions of being a business owner in Victoria. In general, retailers enjoy being part of the Victoria business community because of its quaint, small town feel and the fact that it is centrally located. However, retailers are concerned about Victoria’s lack of identity with area consumers and the lack of population within Victoria. Some Victoria retailers have seen increases in sales since 2007, despite the challenges of the economy, while other retailers have experienced declining or flat sales. Regardless, there is an overwhelming desire from Victoria retailers to grow their businesses; however, general consensus is that there is not enough space in Victoria to grow into. This has caused some existing retailers to look elsewhere to expand their business. Additionally, retailers feel that Victoria needs to increase the number of businesses in order for all of them to be more successful. This magnifies the need for more retail space in Victoria, which will present a challenge for parking, which is already an issue for many downtown retailers.

13

Chapter IV VICTORIA TRADE AREAS

Downtown Victoria has two trade areas: one for convenience establishments and a second for stores that draw from a further distance referred to as destination trade area. These trade areas, shown on Map 3, were delineated by McComb Group utilizing data from the Victoria customer survey and location of competitive shopping areas, arterial road network, natural boundaries, and previous experience. The convenience trade area extends north to County Road 119 in Minnetrista, east to TH-41, south to Augusta Road in Laketown Township, and west to include Waconia. The convenience trade area includes the communities of Victoria, St. Bonifacius, and Waconia and portions of the following cities: Chaska, Chanhassen, and Minnetrista. The trade area covers approximately 71 square miles and is served by TH-5, a major east-west artery, and CSAH 13. Map 3 VICTORIA CONVENIENCE AND DESTINATION TRADE AREAS

The destination trade area extends north of Mound to West Branch Road in Minnestrista, east to TH-101 in Chanhassen, south to County Road 140 in Laketown Township, and west to County Road 151, covering 77.7 square miles. This trade area includes the communities of: Shorewood, Excelsior, Greenwood, Tonka Bay, Spring Park, and Mound, and portions of Chanhassen, Victoria, Chaska, Minnetonka Beach, Orono, and Minnetrista. 14

Competitive Retail Areas Victoria is surrounded by several larger established retail areas, shown on Map 4. Store types in each of these competitive areas are contained in Table 10 and include Waconia with 182 business establishments, Downtown Chaska with 104 establishments, TH-41 and Pioneer Trail with 44 establishments including Rainbow Foods, SuperTarget and Home Depot; and Downtown Chanhassen with 179 business establishments including Target, Byerly’s and Cub. Lesser levels of competition are presented by St. Bonifacius, Mound, and two shopping centers at TH-7 and TH-41. These shopping areas are conveniently located for residents of Victoria’s trade area. T able 10 COMPET IT IVE RET AIL AREAS

Establishment T ype C O NVENIENC E RETAIL Food Drug Store Liquor Hardware Floral Video FO O D SERVIC E Full Service Limited Service Drinking Establishments C O NVENIENC E/GASO LINE Convenience/Gasoline SHO PPING GO O DS General Merchandise Variety/Dollar Apparel/Accessories Furniture & Home Furnishings Electronics Other Shopping Goods Pre-Owned Merchandise HO ME IMPRO VEMENT Home Improvement Lawn & Garden AUTO MO TIVE Auto/RV Sales Auto Parts Other Equipment Sales/Marine Subtotal SERVIC ES Auto Services Personal Care Personal Services Business Services Laundry/Dry Cleaning Financial Real Estate Insurance Medical Dental Entertainment/Recreation Professional Services Lodging Other Services Fraternal Subtotal TO TAL

Waconia 1 1 2 2 2 2

Chaska T H-41 & Downtown Pioneer T rl 4 2 2

1

1

1 2

10 8 2

7 12

6

2

2

3 6

1 1 1 1

Chanhassen T H-7 & T H-41 Downtown

2

2

1

4 3 4 1 3 1

2

1 1

1 3

12 17

1

5

1 1 1 1 1

1 1 2 6 4 16

1

5 4 2

1

2 3 8 1 16 1

Mound

St. Bonifacius

1

1

1 1 1

1 2 4

3 4 1 1

4 2 1 74

43

7 12 8 5 1 18 3 9 23 5 7 2 1 5 2 108 182

2 7 5 2 2 7 5 6 8 2 3 3 2 6 1 61 104

1 1 2 1 9 1

2 1

1

1

4

1

1

1 1

3

25

6 2 1 2

3 2 2

1 19 44

S o urc e : M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

15

2 32

1 20

3 8 6 1 2 8 1 3 6 3 5 2

2

4 3 55 87

1 1

16

8 1 1 2 2

1

1

2 2 4

2 8 28

22 38

1 1 82 8 15 12 2 5 14 2 3 15 5 6 4 3 2 1 97 179

Map 4 COMPETITIVE SHOPPING AREAS AND VICTORIA TRADE AREAS

Residential Growth Population and household growth for the Victoria trade area was estimated through 2030 by McComb Group. Building permits for communities and unincorporated areas were examined from 1990 to 2009 to confirm trade area household growth. These forecasts take into consideration past population and household growth trends in the Victoria area, changes resulting from the decline in new home construction, and possible changes in development patterns resulting from completion of the new TH-212. Building permits for the southwest growth corridor communities for the period 1990 to 2009 were compared to the Seven-County Metropolitan Area (Metro Area) in Table 11. Annual Metro Area building permits ranged from 12,000 to 15,800 between 1990 and 1998. As the housing boom unfolded, building permits increased from 17,700 in 1999, peaked at 21,000 in 2003, which was followed by a decline of 80 percent to 2009. Southwest growth corridor market share of the Metro Area building permits has averaged 22.0 percent and ranged from 16.69 percent to 29.13 percent between 1990 and 2009. During the last five years, building permit market share averaged 24.25 percent indicating that the southwest growth corridor was maintaining market share. The north segment of the southwest growth corridor or the portion north of the Minnesota River captured about 60.1 percent of the southwest growth corridor permits between 1990 and 2009. Over the last five years, the market share was about the same at 60.6 percent. 16

Trade area communities’ market share of the north segment building permits fluctuated between 1990 and 1995. In 1990, trade area communities’ market share was 15.30 percent, increased to 29.67 percent in 1992, and dropped to 15.86 percent in 1995. In 1999, trade area market share of new housing rebounded to 37.44 percent and has maintained a market share above 20.0 percent through 2009. During the past five years, trade area communities’ average market share ranged from 22.8 percent to over 33 percent in 2005 and 2009. Table 11 VICTORIA TRADE AREA AND SOUTHWEST GROWTH CORRIDOR RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERM ITS; 1990 TO 2009

Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total

M etro Area

Building Permits

13,340 12,060 15,632 15,882 14,205 13,956 14,098 13,234 15,817 17,679 17,050 16,788 19,782 20,973 19,832 11,514 12,109 8,039 4,711 4,028 280,729

2,226 2,061 2,856 2,932 3,025 3,073 2,973 2,985 3,673 3,446 4,353 4,057 5,173 4,717 3,942 3,354 2,447 1,748 1,198 997 61,236

Southwest Growth Corridor North Segment M arket M arket Building Share Share Permits 16.69 % 17.09 18.27 18.46 21.30 22.02 21.09 22.56 23.22 19.49 25.53 24.17 26.15 22.49 19.88 29.13 20.21 21.74 25.43 24.75 21.81 %

70.49 % 65.07 67.86 67.46 69.26 73.25 61.28 65.70 54.89 42.86 54.35 54.42 65.24 57.01 50.25 51.22 60.77 65.62 75.54 49.95 60.13 %

1,569 1,341 1,938 1,978 2,095 2,251 1,822 1,961 2,016 1,477 2,366 2,208 3,375 2,689 1,981 1,718 1,487 1,147 905 498 36,822

Trade Area Communities M arket Building Share Permits 15.30 % 19.31 29.67 25.68 16.80 15.86 23.93 23.76 24.01 37.44 37.83 35.78 28.24 30.23 42.81 37.95 28.65 28.60 22.76 33.73 28.00 %

240 259 575 508 352 357 436 466 484 553 895 790 953 813 848 652 426 328 206 168 10,309

S o urc e : U.S . C e ns us a nd M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

Household growth projections from 2010 to 2030 for the Victoria convenience trade area are based on estimated future southwest growth corridor communities’ residential market share of the Metro Area contained in Table 12. Household growth in the Metro Area is estimated to increase at 1.0 percent annually over the next 20 years, a growth rate that is about two-thirds of recent trends. At this rate, the Metro Area would add about 300,000 homes by 2030. Assuming that the southwest growth corridor will capture 24.0 percent of the increase, similar to the past, the estimated household growth would be about 71,840 households. The north segment of the southwest growth corridor is estimated to capture an increasing share of new housing based on improved accessibility resulting from the new TH-212. Market share is estimated to increase from 62.0 percent in 2010 to 64.0 percent in 2021. Trade area communities are estimated to capture an increasing percentage of new households, ranging from 30.0 percent in 2010 to 31.0 percent in 2027. Victoria’s trade area is expected to capture an average of 62.0 percent of the trade area communities’ growth over the next 20 years. This will increase trade area households from 10,794 in 2010 to 17,909 by 2030.

17

Table 12 SOUTHWEST GROWTH CORRIDOR -- NORTH SEGM ENT HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS; 2010 TO 2030 M ETRO AREA AND VICTORIA TRADE AREA

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total

M etro Area Households Increase 1,124,010 1,135,250 1,146,603 1,158,069 1,169,649 1,181,346 1,193,159 1,205,091 1,217,142 1,229,313 1,241,606 1,254,022 1,266,563 1,279,228 1,292,021 1,304,941 1,317,990 1,331,170 1,344,482 1,357,927 1,371,506

11,240 11,353 11,466 11,581 11,696 11,813 11,932 12,051 12,171 12,293 12,416 12,540 12,666 12,792 12,920 13,049 13,180 13,312 13,445 13,579 299,332

Southwest Growth Corridor M arket North Segment Share Trade Area @ 24% Percent HHs 2,698 2,725 2,752 2,779 2,807 2,835 2,864 2,892 2,921 2,950 2,980 3,010 3,040 3,070 3,101 3,132 3,163 3,195 3,227 3,259 71,840

62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0

1,673 1,689 1,706 1,723 1,740 1,786 1,804 1,822 1,840 1,859 1,907 1,926 1,945 1,965 1,985 2,004 2,024 2,045 2,065 2,086 44,480

Trade Area Communities M arket Share Percent HHs 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0

502 507 512 517 522 536 550 556 561 567 582 591 597 603 609 615 628 634 640 647 13,335

Trade Area Households Percent HHs 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0

311 314 317 321 324 332 341 345 348 351 361 367 370 374 378 382 389 393 397 401 10,268

Future Trade Area Households 10,794 11,105 11,419 11,737 12,057 12,381 12,713 13,054 13,399 13,747 14,098 14,459 14,826 15,196 15,570 15,948 16,329 16,718 17,111 17,508 17,909

S o urc e : M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

Population and Households Population and household growth trends in Victoria’s trade areas and the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA are shown in Table 13. Since 2000, Victoria’s convenience trade area has been growing at a faster rate than both the destination trade area and the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA. Victoria’s convenience trade area population increased at an annual rate of 4.84 percent from 12,372 people in 1990 to 19,843 in 2000. Convenience trade area population growth rate decreased slightly between 2000 and 2010 to 4.48 percent annually, bringing population to 30,753 by 2010. Population is estimated to increase at an annual rate of 3.48 percent to 36,494 by 2015. Household growth has been similar, increasing at a rate of 4.91 percent between 1990 and 2000 and an annual rate of 4.64 percent from 2000 to 2010. Households are estimated to increase from 10,794 in 2010 to 12,381 by 2015, an annual growth rate of 2.78 percent. Victoria’s destination trade area population and households also include the convenience trade area. Destination trade area population and households are increasing at a slightly slower rate than the convenience trade area. Between 1990 and 2000, destination trade area population increased from 51,652 to 71,584, a growth rate of 3.32 percent. Over the next 10 years, population increased at an annual growth rate of 2.54 percent, increasing to 91,975 in 2010. By 2015, destination trade area population is estimated to increase to 100,320. Destination trade area households totaled 18,930 in 1990 and increased to 26,387 by 2000, an annual increase of 3.38 percent. In 2010, households were estimated at 33,746. Households are estimated to increase to 36,894 by 2015, an increase of 1.80 percent annually. Future household density for 2015 in the Victoria trade areas is shown on Map 5.

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Table 13 VICTORIA CONVENIENCE AND DESTINATION TRADE AREAS, AND M INNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL M SA: POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIM ATED

Population 1990 2000 2010E 2015E Annual Growth Rate 1990-2000 2000-2010E 2010E-2015E Households 1990 2000 2010E 2015E Annual Growth Rate 1990-2000 2000-2010E 2010E-2015E

Convenience Trade Area

Destination Trade Area

M inneapolisSt. Paul M SA

12,372 19,843 30,753 36,494

51,652 71,584 91,975 100,320

2,542,631 2,968,806 3,302,532 3,465,615

4.84 % 4.48 3.48 4,248 6,860 10,794 12,381 4.91 % 4.64 2.78

3.32 % 2.54 1.75 18,930 26,387 33,746 36,894 3.38 % 2.49 1.80

1.56 % 1.07 0.97 961,627 1,136,615 1,265,491 1,294,127 1.69 % 1.08 0.45

E: Es tim a te d. S o urc e : U.S . C e ns us , S c a n/US , Inc . a nd M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

Map 5 VICTORIA CONVENIENCE AND DESTINATION TRADE AREAS 2015 HOUSEHOLD DENSITY

19

Household Income Average household income in Victoria’s convenience and destination trade areas and Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA are shown in Table 14. Average household income in 2010 in the convenience trade area was $114,654 compared to $120,703 in the destination trade area and $86,856 in the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA. Average household incomes for these three areas are estimated to grow through 2015, increasing Victoria’s convenience trade area average household income to $120,897 in 2015 and destination trade area to $128,194. Table 14 VICTORIA CONVENIENCE AND SHOPPING GOODS TRADE AREAS, AND M INNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL M SA: AVERAGE AND M EDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOM E 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIM ATED Convenience Trade Area Average Household Income 1990 2000 2010E 2015E Median Household Income 1990 2000 2010E 2015E

Destination Trade Area

M inneapolisSt. Paul M SA

$

51,502 92,209 114,654 120,897

$

55,026 96,572 120,703 128,194

$

43,703 67,713 86,856 93,497

$

40,955 70,823 83,461 87,815

$

44,087 71,782 87,735 93,556

$

37,631 54,734 65,421 69,896

E: Es tim a te d. S o urc e : M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

The proportion of Victoria’s trade areas households with incomes above $75,000, $100,000, and $150,000 are shown in Table 15. In 2010, households with incomes above $75,000 were 56.9 percent in Victoria’s convenience trade area and 58.2 percent in the destination trade area. Households with incomes above $100,000 in 2010 were 36.6 percent in the convenience trade area and 40.5 percent in the destination trade area. Table 15

VICTORIA CONVENIENCE AND DESTINATION TRADE AREAS, AND MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL MSA: HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION 1990 AND 2000 CENSUS; 2010 AND 2015 ESTIM ATED Convenience Trade Area Number

Destination Trade Area

Percent

Number

M inneapolisSt. Paul M SA

Percent

Number

Percent

Households above $75,000 1990 2000 2010E 2015E

660 3,060 6,138 7,477

15.6 % 44.7 56.9 60.5

3,501 11,975 19,639 22,833

18.5 % 45.4 58.2 61.8

107,842 357,670 548,648 605,975

11.2 % 31.5 43.4 46.8

Households above $100,000 1990 2000 2010E 2015E

342 1,743 3,953 4,930

8.1 % 25.5 36.6 39.9

1,778 7,371 13,676 16,264

9.4 % 27.9 40.5 44.0

47,969 192,041 350,110 398,807

5.0 % 16.9 27.7 30.8

Households above $150,000 1990 2000 2010E 2015E

170 642 1,803 2,336

4.0 % 9.4 16.7 18.9

815 3,304 7,120 8,683

4.3 % 12.5 21.1 23.5

17,264 67,087 137,558 158,679

1.8 % 5.9 10.9 12.3

E: Es tim a te d. S o urc e : M c C o m b Gro up, Ltd.

20

Victoria’s destination trade area has a large number of upper income households. In 2010, 19,639 households are estimated to have incomes above $75,000, which is expected to increase to 21,779 in 2015. Households with incomes above $100,000 are estimated at 13,676 in 2010 and are expected to increase to over 16,264 in 2015. Households with incomes above $150,000 are estimated to total 8,683 in 2015. Distribution of households with incomes above $100,000 in 2015, shown on Map 6, demonstrates that the more affluent households are distributed throughout the trade area with the highest concentrations in the Minnetonka Lakes area, Eden Prairie, and Chanhassen. Map 6 VICTORIA CONVENIENCE AND DESTINATION TRADE AREAS 2015 HOUSEHOLD INCOME: PERCENT ABOVE $100,000

Demographic Characteristics Demographic characteristics for Victoria’s convenience and destination trade areas and Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA are summarized in the demographic snapshots contained in Tables 16, 17, and 18. These snapshots contain census data for 1990 and 2000, as well as estimates for 2010 and 2015. These estimates were provided by Scan/US, Inc., a source of Census comparable demographic information. Significant characteristics of Victoria’s trade areas include the following: ♦ In 2010, 30.5 percent of the population in the Victoria convenience trade area was under the age of 19, while a similar proportion (29.7 percent) of the destination trade area population was under the age of 19. By 2015, both the convenience and destination trade areas are expected to have over 29.0 percent of the population under the age of 19. 21

Table 16 McComb Group, Ltd.

DEMOGRAPHIC AND INCOME SNAPSHOT

Victoria Convenience Trade Area SNAPSHOT Population Households Families Per Capita Income Median Household Income Average Household Income Average Household Size Median Age

6/6/2011 1990 Census 12,372 4,248 3,297 $ 17,898 $ 40,955 $ 51,502 2.78 32

TRENDS Population Households Families Median Household Income Average Household Income

2000 Census 19,843 6,860 5,431 $ 32,196 $ 70,823 $ 92,209 2.80 35

1990 - 2000 4.84 % 4.91 5.12 5.63 6.00

2010 Estimated 30,753 10,794 8,234 $ 40,669 $ 83,461 $ 114,654 2.79 37

2015 Projected 36,494 12,381 9,291 $ 41,469 $ 87,815 $ 120,897 2.88 38

Annual Percent Change 2000 - 2010 4.48 % 4.64 4.25 1.66 2.20

2010 - 2015 3.48 % 2.78 2.45 1.02 1.07

HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME Less than $15,000 $15,000 - $24,999 $25,000 - $34,999 $35,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $74,999 $75,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 +

1990 Census Number Percent 614 14.5 % 500 11.9 639 15.2 900 21.3 907 21.5 318 7.5 172 4.1 170 4.0

2000 Census Number Percent 449 6.6 % 424 6.2 491 7.2 786 11.5 1,631 23.8 1,317 19.2 1,101 16.1 642 9.4

2010 Estimated Number Percent 409 3.8 % 513 4.8 567 5.3 986 9.2 2,167 20.1 2,185 20.3 2,150 19.9 1,803 16.7

2015 Projected Number Percent 408 3.3 % 576 4.7 579 4.7 1,016 8.2 2,325 18.8 2,547 20.6 2,594 21.0 2,336 18.9

POPULATION BY AGE