The Economic Crisis & What It Means for IT Jyoti Lalchandani Vice President & Regional MD IDC Middle East, Turkey & Africa
Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
IDC in the Middle East, Turkey & Africa IDC Turkey
Expertise & Coverage
Istanbul
IDC North Africa Casablanca, Morocco
Over 90 Analysts, Consultants IDC MEA HQ IDC Egypt
& Events Associates Across the Region
Dubai, UAE
Cairo
IDC Saudi Riyadh
ICT Market Coverage Across
25+ Countries Advisory Services to the ICT
Community, Governments, and Telcos
IDC West Africa Lagos, Nigeria
IDC East Africa Nairobi, Kenya
IDC Events Reach Out to
4,500+ CIO’s and IT Managers Across 12 Countries Upcoming Offices in Cairo,
IDC South Africa Johannesburg
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Egypt (Regional Support Center) and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Research & Analysis Methodology Supply-Side
Demand-Side
Analyst Insight
Market Models
ICT Vendors End-User Channels
(Customer Behavior & Technology Adoption)
• Disty’s
Industry/Population Demographics
• Resellers/VAR’s • SI’s • IT Training Firms • IT Consulting Firms • Retailers
Standard Definitions & Methodologies (Research and Forecasts)
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Trade Associations and Other
Agenda The Economic Implosion
IT Budget Fallout
Memos from the CIO
Accelerated Transformations Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
An Economic Shock Worldwide GDP Forecast
5% 4% 3%
4.1%
3.8%
4.0%
3.8% 3.8%
2.5%
2%
2.0%
2.9%
3.8% 3.3% 2.9%
2.7% 1.8%
2.5%
1.7%
1%
1.0% 0.2%
0% -1%
3.8%
3.8% 3.1%
2.9% 2.4%
4.0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-2% -2.6%
-3% June 08 Forecast
October 08 Forecast
December 08 Forecast
Source: EIU – April 2009 Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
April 09 Forecast
The Economic Unknown
$1-3 Trillion For Bank Bailouts Tax Cuts Infrastructure SMB Incentives Health Care Smart Grid Auto Manufacturers Green Building
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IT Budget Fallout 8% 6%
7.1%
WW IT Spending 7.1%
7.1%
5.5% 5.2% 4.2%
4%
6.3%
5.9%
5.9%
4.5%
4.2%
4.4% 2.6%
2%
5.5% 5.4%
6.0% 6.2% 5.7% 5.6%
2.8%
0.5%
0% -2%
6.1%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-4% -6% -8%
-8.2%
-10% Aug-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Source: IDC IT spending estimates, April 2009 Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
May-09 (Prelim)
2012
Emerging Markets in Context 7%
$1,174 $1,127 6%
6.2%
1,200
$983
1,000 800
5% 4%
3.8%
$618
600
2.5% 400
1.9%
200
$225 $240
$509
2.5%
2.3%
1.4% 1.5%
$101
2.8%
2.1% 1.0%
$32 $30 $24
$6
0.8%
2% 1%
Source: GDP data: EIU (April 2009); IDC IT Spending Estimates (April 2009) Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
Sp ai n Si ng ap or e C an ad a
Eg yp t Pa ki st an
U
Q Sa at ar ud iA So rab ia ut h Af ric a Tu rk N ey or th Af ric a Le va nt
0%
AE
0
3%
IT as Share of GDP
IT Spending Per Capita US$ '08
1,400
Impact in the GCC 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5%
24.0% 20.4%
26.2%
28.1%
21.8% 17.3%
13.4%
12.2% 7.7%
7.4%
9.4% 3.2%
2006
23.8%
24.0%
3.4%
2007
4.2%
2008
-10%
8.3% 7.6% 4.3% 3.3%
9.6% -1.0% -1.6%
2009 F
-5.8%
2010 F
-11.6%
-15% GDP UAE
GDP Saudi Arabia
IT Spending GCC
IT Spending UAE
Source: GDP data: EIU and IMF (April 2009); IDC IT Spending Estimates (April 2009) Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
GDP Qatar
IT Budgets Distribution 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% UAE IT Hardware
Saudi
Qatar
Packaged Software
Source: IDC IT Spending Estimates (April 2009) Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
GCC Average IT Services
The Next Stage of IT Adoption 35% 30% 25%
24%
28%
26% + Healthy Oil Prices + Infrastructure Enhancements + Public Sector Reform + Liberalization/Privatization + Consumer Sentiment + Emergence of New Sectors + SME Adoption Begins - Inflation - Skills Availability
20% 15% 10% 5%
+ IT Asset Utilization/ Rationalization + SaaS, Managed Services, Virtualization + ROI/TCO Play + Regulatory/Compliance + Alignment of IT to Business + SMB Adoption - Skills
8%
0% -5%
2006
2007
2008
-10%
2009
-12%
-15% IT Spending UAE Source: IDC IT spending estimates (April 2009 update) Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
2010
Memos from the CIO
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Memos from the CIO Pre-Crisis (1/3) Breakdown of ’08 IT Spend
Initiatives already underway 30%
New initiatives 38%
Routine Infra Upgrades 32%
Source: IDC’s Middle East CIO Summit 2008
N = 102
Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
Memos from the CIO Pre-Crisis (2/3) Environm e nt frie ndly s olutions Mark e ting pe rform ance s olutions /track ing Procure m ent/s ourcing Supply chain m anage m e nt Virtualization Branch Autom ation Production/Mfring Solns Sale s pe rform ance track ing Re gulatory com pliance Mobility/w irele ss solutions deploym e nt HRM Solns Pe rform ance track ing Product deve lopm e nt/innovation IT Se curity Cus tom e r se rvice/Care IT Infras tructure
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Priority of IT Investments Source: IDC’s Middle East CIO Summit 2008
N = 102
Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
4
Memos from the CIO Pre-Crisis (3/3) CIO Challenges Other Regulatory Compliance Maintaining a Secure Infrastructure Contributing to the Bottom Line Pace of Product Development Managing Outsourced IT Services Managing Internal Budgets Supporting Operations Maintaining System Performance Staffing issues
0
5
10
15
20
25
# of Responses Source: IDC’s Middle East CIO Summit 2008 Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
30
35
2009 Memo (Post-Crisis) Q: What are the most significant factors driving changes in IT expenditure (budget) allocations in 2009 post crisis? To improve the availability and/or performance of IT systems Improve applications set that better fit our business processes Security of information systems
Greater focus on regulatory compliance
Greater focus on ROI/TCO
0 Source: IDC’s MENA CIO Summit 2009
5
N = 114
Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
10
15
20
25
Degree of Importance
30
35
Memos from the CIO Post-Crisis 1
3
Bus Continuity Priority Improve Utilization of Assets
2
Explore New Business/Delivery Models
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Remains
4
IT as Business Enabler (Alignment)
Accelerated Transformations
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Mega Trend 1: The Network Center Will Consolidate Servers As Virtual Machine Hosts 18% 13%
Virtualization and data center consolidation will continue Network and availability investments will increase Management overhead will increase
2007
2009
8.8 million virtual servers vs. 9 million physical servers ship in 2009
IT skills and organization will need to evolve to support a service-oriented infrastructure
Source: IDC Q4 WW Server Tracker, 2008 Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
19
Mega Trend 2: The Network Edge Will Expand Millions of Communicating Devices WW* 18,000
16,000
Enterprise bandwidth demands will explode Device support and asset management demands will explode
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
Mobile Devices CE & Industrial
4,000
2,000
Computers & Communications Equipment
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Data center architectures will have to change Operational systems will drive new service level requirements
* Excludes voice- and SMS-only phones Source: IDC Device Universe Model, Jan 2009 Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
20
Mega Trend 3: Enterprise Information Will Explode Enterprise-Liable Exabytes Produced a Year
User Content
Overlap ~1,000 EB
1,234 EB
New levels of security and privacy will be needed
Enterprise Liable Content 1,530 EB
New storage, information management, content management will be needed
1,530
342 2008 2011 Source: IDC Digital Universe Study, 2008
New tools for search and discovery, including video, voice will be needed New relationship with business units will be needed – on policy, classification, data ownership
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21
Mega Trend 4: Web 2.0 Will Create Problems Percent Hyper Connected Both For Business and Personal Use
79%
64%
Laptop PC
PDA
Enterprise-to-customer contacts will grow by an order of magnitude Interactivity and mobility will blur work and personal boundaries New client access tools will fragment customer relationships
46% 67%
Text or Instant Messaging
Posting to Blogs, Wikis, Forums
Web 2.0 will drive new policy needs – with IT in the middle
Source: IDC Study on Hyperconnectivity, 2008 Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
22
Mega Trend 5: The IT Domain Will Grow If it runs on the IP network IT will end up managing it IT skill requirements will diversify – internal customers will multiply Real time applications will increase IT risk exposure Operational IT and general IT will become one and the same
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23
Mega Trend 6: IT Will Have To Reorganize Client Contact
Mixed Outsourcing
UsageBased Charges
Business Process Responsibility Embedded IT IT Marketing
New Staff/ Org
Virtual Teams Business Objectives
Job Rotation Capital Spending Visibility
Six Sigma Process Management
New Reporting Structure
IT performance will be tied to business performance Infrastructure money will come from consolidation New project money will come from business payback IT and business department boundaries will become porous
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24
Impact on IT
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25
Contact
Jyoti Lalchandani +971 4 391 2741
[email protected]
Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.