Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2012 Environmental Protection Agency 9th October 2013
Overview
Highlights Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance
Highlights Total GHG emissions in 2012 are 57.92 Mt CO2eq, up 0.58 Mt CO2eq, 1.0% increase Greenhouse gas emissions decreased in: Residential, Transport and Waste sectors and increased in Energy, Industry & Commercial and Agriculture sectors Energy emissions are up 0.71 Mt CO2eq a 5.9% increase, reflecting an increase in the use of coal for electricity generation Residential emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO2eq a 5.9% reduction, due to higher than average temperatures in 2012 Industry & Commercial emissions are up 0.13 Mt CO2eq a 1.5% increase Transport emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO2eq a 3.5% reduction Agriculture emissions are 3.0% higher in 2012, due to increases in cattle and sheep numbers Waste emissions are 2.7% lower in 2012, due to increase in utilisation and flaring of landfill gas Based on the current inventory, Ireland is 0.80 million tonnes below the Kyoto Protocol target, when the impact of EU ETS and Forest Sinks are taken into account
Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sources
Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste
Sinks Afforestation, Reforestation and Deforestation
Gases CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
Overview
Highlights Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance
GHG emissions 1990-2012 (excluding LULUCF) 80
-3.5%
70
Mt CO2 Equivalent
60 50 40
30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Energy
Residential
Industry & Commercial
Agriculture
Transport
Overall emissions in 2012 are up 4.8% on 1990 levels
Waste
Interannual Change in GHG Emissions 4.00 2.80
3.00 2.07
2.00 1.00
1.46 0.78
1.91
1.51 1.14
1.97 1.32
0.93
0.58
0.37 0.07
Mt CO2 eq.
0.00 -1.00 -2.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -0.01
-0.34
-0.40 -0.86 -0.35
-0.35
-1.91
-3.00 -4.00 -4.26 -5.00 -6.00
-5.76
-7.00
Inter annual change
GHG emissions 1990 and 2012 Waste 2.5% Transport 9.3%
Waste 1.8% Energy 20.6%
Transport 18.8%
Energy 21.9%
Residential 10.7%
Residential 13.5%
Agriculture 36.9%
Agriculture 32.1%
55.25 Mt CO2 eq.
Industry & Commercial 14.7%
Industry & Commercial 17.3%
1990
57.92 Mt CO2 eq.
2012
GHG emissions 1990-2012 by Sector 25
Mt of CO2 eq.
20
15
10
5
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Agriculture
Energy
Transport
Industry & Commercial
Residential
Waste
Energy GHG emissions 1990-2012 20.0 18.0 16.0
Mt CO2eq
14.0
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Power Generation
Oil Refining / Solid Fuel Manufacture
Fugitive
Overall emissions in 2012 are 11.3% up on 1990 levels
Energy GHG emissions 1990-2012 20.0 18.0 16.0
Mt CO2eq
14.0
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Power Generation
Oil Refining / Solid Fuel Manufacture
Fugitive
Emissions in 2012 are just above 1993 levels
Residential GHG emissions 1990-2012 9.0 8.0 7.0
4.8%
0.6% -11.2%-0.7%
8.2% -2.5% -0.6% 1.9% -5.1% -5.3% 1.3%
4.2% -1.1%
2.3%
2.7%
4.0%
-1.6% -3.2%
8.6% -0.8% -15.5% -5.9%
Mt CO2 eq
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Solid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Gaseous Fuels
Biomass Fuels
Emissions in 2012 are 16.9% below 1990 levels
Industry and Commercial 1990-2012 14.0 12.0
Mt CO2eq
10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Manufacturing & Construction
Industrial Processes
Commercial Services
Solvents
Overall emissions in 2012 are 10.6% down on 1990 levels
'F' Gases
EU-ETS Emissions 2005-2012 25.0
-3.1%
-2.1%
20.0
-3.9% -15.6%
Cement emissions up 17.6% 0.8% 6.9%
Mt CO2 eq
-9.2%
Power generation emissions up 6.4%
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 2005
Power Generation
2006
2007
2008
Oil Refining & Solid Fuel Manufacture
2009
Non-ferrous Metals
2010
2011
Food Processing
2012
Cement
Power Cement Overall generation ETS sector emissions emissions emissions in 2012 inin 2012 2012 areare 24.7% are 53.1% 19.8% down down down onon 2005 on 2005 2005 levels levels levels
Other
Transport GHG emissions 1990-2012 16.0 14.0 12.0
Mt CO2eq
10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Road Transport
Railways
Domestic Civil Aviation
Domestic Navigation
Gas Transmission
Overall emissions in 2012 are 113% up on 1990 levels
Agriculture GHG emissions 1990-2012 25.0
20.0
Mt CO2eq
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Fuel Combustion
Enteric Fermentation
Manure Management
Agricultural Soils
Overall emissions in 2012 are 8.6% down on 1990 levels
Waste GHG emissions 1990-2012 2.0 1.8
1.6
Mt CO2eq
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Landfill
WasteWater
Incineration
Overall emissions in 2012 are 26.1% down on 1990 levels
Overview
Highlights Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance
Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 19902012 GHG emissions and GDP Power Generation
Transport Residential
Agriculture Waste
GHG emissions and GDP (relative trend) 300
GDP 261 260
Index 1990=100
220
180
140
GHG 105 100
60
20 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Greenhouse gas emissions
GDP, constant prices
GHG Emissions/Capita Ireland 1990-2012 4600
20 19
18.2 tonnes/capita
4400
18 17
15.8 tonnes/capita
16
4000
15 3800
14 13
3600
12.6 tonnes/capita
3400
12 11
3200
10 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Population
Tonne of GHG/capita
Tonne of GHG/capita
Population (000s)
4200
GHG Emissions/Capita for all EU/EEA Member States in 2011 25
Tonnes GHG/capita
20
15
Ireland 12.6 EU 15 9.1
10
5
0
CO2
CH4
N2O
F-Gases
GHG Emissions/Capita for all UNFCCC Annex I Parties in 2011 30.0
25.0
Tonnes GHG/capita
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Ireland 12.6 EU 15 9.1
Power Generation CO2 and Electricity Total Final Consumption (relative trend) 250
Electricity TFC 205
230 210
Index 1990=100
190 170 150
Power generation 112
130 110 90 70 50 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Power Generation CO2 (Gg)
Electricity Total Available Final Consumption GWh
Drivers in Transport – Fuel consumption 200,000
180,000
Fuel Consumption, TJ
160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000
60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gasoline
Diesel
LPG
Fuel Oil
Kerosene (Civil Aviation)
Biofuels
Drivers in Transport – Vehicle numbers (relative trend) 300
236
250
216
Index 1990=100
200
150
100
50
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cars
Commercial vehicles
Drivers in Transport – Passenger Cars 2500000 Diesel cars 30.1%
Vehicle numbers
2000000
1500000 Diesel cars 9.4% 1000000
500000
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Gasoline cars
Diesel cars
Drivers for Residential Sector 1.65M households
1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1.01M 1,200,000 households 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 No. of Households
Household numbers are up 64% since 1990
Drivers for Residential Sector 140000
9.00
8.00
120000
7.00 100000 80000
5.00
Liquid & Gas fuels +198%
60000
4.00 3.00
40000 2.00
20000
1.00
Solid fuels -66%
0
0.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Solid Fuels
Liquid Fuels
Natural Gas
Renewables
CO2 eq emissions from Residential Sector
Overall emissions in 2012 are 16.9% down on 1990 levels
Mt CO2eq
Fuel Use, TJ
6.00
Drivers in Agriculture – Livestock population (relative trend) 160
140
Index 1990=100
Pigs 125 120 Other Cattle 102 100 Dairy Cattle 82 80 Fertiliser 78 60 Sheep 60 40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dairy Cattle
Other Cattle
Sheep
Fertilizer N
Pigs
Drivers for Waste Sector 3500000
Tonnes of Waste
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
Waste generated 1000000
500000
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Drivers for Waste Sector 3500000
Tonnes of Waste
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
Waste sent to Landfill
500000
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CH4 emissions from waste – solid waste disposal on land 130 120
110
82.5 Gg
100
Mt of CH4
90 80
70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CH4 Flaring
CH4 Utilisation
CH4 Generation
CH4 Emissions
Flaring and utilisation increased by 2% between 2011 and 2012
Overview
Highlights Trends of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Drivers of GHG emissions in Ireland 1990-2012 Implications for Kyoto Protocol compliance
Implications for Kyoto Compliance Mt CO2eq 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2008 - 2012
Total National Emissions
67.72
61.95
61.61
57.34
57.92
306.54
Less Verified Emissions for ETS
20.38
17.22
17.36
15.77
16.85
87.58
Total Non-ETS Emissions
47.34
44.73
44.25
41.58
41.07
218.96
Kyoto Limit
62.84
62.84
62.84
62.84
62.84
314.19
Less ETS Allocation
22.28*
22.28*
22.28*
22.28*
22.28*
111.40
Total Non-ETS Limit
40.56
40.56
40.56
40.56
40.56
202.79
Distance above Kyoto limit after five years of Kyoto Protocol period (excluding forest sinks)
6.78
4.18
3.69
1.02
0.51
218.96 – 202.79 = 16.18
Forest sinks
-3.20
-3.39
-3.42
-3.57
-3.40
-16.98
Distance above Kyoto limit after five years of Kyoto Protocol period (including forest sinks)
3.57
0.78
0.27
-2.55
-2.89
-0.80
Implications for Kyoto Compliance Kyoto Protocol Limit 314.18 Mtonnes of CO2e for the period 2008 – 2012 62.84 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum For ETS sectors Allocation of 22.28 million allowances per annum 2008-2012 For non-ETS sectors 62.84 – 22.28 = 40.56 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum - the “effective” target for Ireland Compare 40.56 Mtonnes of CO2e with actual non-ETS sector emissions for 2008 to 2012 and take into account forest sinks Based on 2008 to 2012 emissions, compliance with Kyoto Protocol by 0.80 Mtonnes of CO2e
Highlights Total GHG emissions in 2012 are 57.92 Mt CO2eq, up 0.58 Mt CO2eq, 1.0% increase Greenhouse gas emissions decreased in: Residential, Transport and Waste sectors and increased in Energy, Industry & Commercial and Agriculture sectors Energy emissions are up 0.71 Mt CO2eq a 5.9% increase, reflecting an increase in the use of coal for electricity generation Residential emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO2eq a 5.9% reduction, due to higher than average temperatures in 2012 Industry & Commercial emissions are up 0.13 Mt CO2eq a 1.5% increase Transport emissions are down 0.39 Mt CO2eq a 3.5% reduction Agriculture emissions are 3.0% higher in 2012, due to increases in cattle and sheep numbers Waste emissions are 2.7% lower in 2012, due to increase in utilisation and flaring of landfill gas Based on the current inventory, Ireland is 0.80 million tonnes below the Kyoto Protocol target, when the impact of EU ETS and Forest Sinks are taken into account
Where we need to go under the EU Effort Sharing Decision [406/2009/EC] 80 70 60 50
Mt CO2 eq
-20% 45.4 Mt
40
37.5 Mt
30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Non ETS Emissions
ETS Emissions
