INDIA AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRENDS Yong Yang, Sr. Economist Corporate Economics and Strategic Issues
UMTRI India Auto Conference April 20, 2011
OUTLINE • Overview of India
• India Infrastructure Conditions
• India Industry Characteristics
• India Industry Volume Outlook
• Ford Business in India
SLIDE 1
TOTAL LAND AND POPULATION IN BRICS AND U.S.
Population Density
Land Area
Population
(Sq. Km.)
(2010, Mils.)
Brazil
8,514,877
201
24
Russia
17,098,242
139
8
India
3,287,263
1,173
357
China
9,596,961
1,330
139
U.S.
9,826,675
310
32
(People/Sq. Km.)
SLIDE 2
2009 GDP PER CAPITA IN BRICS AND U.S. $000s, PPP
50
46
40
30
19
20
10 7
10
3 0 Brazil
Russia
India
China
U.S. SLIDE 3
REAL GDP GROWTH IN BRICS AND U.S. YoY % Change
20 15 10.3 8.6 7.5 4.0 2.9
10 5 0 (5) (10) (15) 1990
1995 Brazil
Russia
2000 India
2005 China
2010 U.S. SLIDE 4
TOTAL ROADWAYS IN BRICS AND U.S. Km (000's) 7,000
6,506
6,000 5,000 4,000
3,320
3,584
3,000 2,000
1,752 982
1,000 0 Brazil
Russia
India
China
U.S.
Source: CIA World Factbook, latest estimate SLIDE 5
QUALITY OF ROADWAYS IN BRICS AND U.S. World Ranking 140 120
118 106
100
89
80 60 40 20
Better
50
11
0 Brazil
Russia
Note: 2009-2010 ranking out of 133 countries Source: World Economic Forum Survey
India
China
U.S. SLIDE 6
LENGTH OF EXPRESSWAYS KM, 000s 90 75.2
80 70
65.1
60 50 41.0 40 30 16.3
20 10 0.5
2.1
1990
1995
0.2
0 2000
2005
China
2009
2008
2008
India
U.S.
Source: CEIC China Database, CIA World Factbook: latest is 2008 SLIDE 7
INDIA AND CHINA -- TOTAL VEHICLE SALES Vehicle Sales
Vehicle Sales Growth
Mil. Units
YoY % Chg.
20
18.3
50 40
16
36 30
12
31
20 10
8 5.9
0 4
0
0.5 0.6 0.4 1990
1.5
1995
India
2.2
3.1 1.5
(10)
0.8
(20) 2000
2005 China
2010
1990
1994 India
1998
2002
2006
2010
China SLIDE 8
VEHICLE DENSITY IN BRICS AND U.S. Vehicles in Operation (VIO)
VIO Per 1,000 Drivers
Mil. 300 250
Vehicle Density
1,200
248 1,000
Latest
200
800
150
600
100 50
Latest
400
78 30
1,000
319 204
38
200
23
28
72
0
0 Brazil Russia India China
U.S.
Brazil Russia India China
US SLIDE 9
INDIA AND CHINA -- VEHICLE DENSITY COMPARISON Vehicles per 1,000 Driving-Age People 30
India (2004-2008)
25 20
25 19 17
15 12 10 China (1996-2000) 5 0 2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
GDP PPP per Capita ( in 000s of $2005) SLIDE 10
INDIA AND CHINA -- FIRST TIME BUYERS DOMINATE
74% 63%
India
China
SLIDE 11
INDIA AND CHINA -- AGE DISTRIBUTION OF VEHICLE BUYERS China
India
42% 38% 34%
33%
20%
18% 10%
5%
Age Group
20s
30s
40s
Age Group
50+
20s
30s
40s
50+
Source: Survey on National demand for passenger vehicles - private user survey 2009, SIC, McKinsey Automotive Branding Survey 2007
SLIDE 12
INDIA AND CHINA -- VEHICLE SALES FINANCING India
China
2009 Share of Financing
2009 Share of Financing
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
71% 70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
92%
29% 30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
Cash
Financing
8%
Cash
Financing SLIDE 13
INDIA AND CHINA -- NET REVENUE DISTRIBUTION China
India Net Revenue ($PU)
Net Revenue ($PU)
>30,000
>30,000
30,000
30,000
25,000
25,000
S Premium U V S CD+ U V
C
CD+
SUV
S U V
20,000
20,000 B
AUV
SM CD+ U P VV
C
MPV
14,500
14,500 C
B
AUV
C
B
S U V
CD+
8,500
8,500 A & Sub B
Mini Com.
B
A& Sub B
B
C
S U V