INDIA AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRENDS

INDIA AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRENDS Yong Yang, Sr. Economist Corporate Economics and Strategic Issues UMTRI India Auto Conference April 20, 2011 OUTLI...
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INDIA AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRENDS Yong Yang, Sr. Economist Corporate Economics and Strategic Issues

UMTRI India Auto Conference April 20, 2011

OUTLINE • Overview of India

• India Infrastructure Conditions

• India Industry Characteristics

• India Industry Volume Outlook

• Ford Business in India

SLIDE 1

TOTAL LAND AND POPULATION IN BRICS AND U.S.

Population Density

Land Area

Population

(Sq. Km.)

(2010, Mils.)

Brazil

8,514,877

201

24

Russia

17,098,242

139

8

India

3,287,263

1,173

357

China

9,596,961

1,330

139

U.S.

9,826,675

310

32

(People/Sq. Km.)

SLIDE 2

2009 GDP PER CAPITA IN BRICS AND U.S. $000s, PPP

50

46

40

30

19

20

10 7

10

3 0 Brazil

Russia

India

China

U.S. SLIDE 3

REAL GDP GROWTH IN BRICS AND U.S. YoY % Change

20 15 10.3 8.6 7.5 4.0 2.9

10 5 0 (5) (10) (15) 1990

1995 Brazil

Russia

2000 India

2005 China

2010 U.S. SLIDE 4

TOTAL ROADWAYS IN BRICS AND U.S. Km (000's) 7,000

6,506

6,000 5,000 4,000

3,320

3,584

3,000 2,000

1,752 982

1,000 0 Brazil

Russia

India

China

U.S.

Source: CIA World Factbook, latest estimate SLIDE 5

QUALITY OF ROADWAYS IN BRICS AND U.S. World Ranking 140 120

118 106

100

89

80 60 40 20

Better

50

11

0 Brazil

Russia

Note: 2009-2010 ranking out of 133 countries Source: World Economic Forum Survey

India

China

U.S. SLIDE 6

LENGTH OF EXPRESSWAYS KM, 000s 90 75.2

80 70

65.1

60 50 41.0 40 30 16.3

20 10 0.5

2.1

1990

1995

0.2

0 2000

2005

China

2009

2008

2008

India

U.S.

Source: CEIC China Database, CIA World Factbook: latest is 2008 SLIDE 7

INDIA AND CHINA -- TOTAL VEHICLE SALES Vehicle Sales

Vehicle Sales Growth

Mil. Units

YoY % Chg.

20

18.3

50 40

16

36 30

12

31

20 10

8 5.9

0 4

0

0.5 0.6 0.4 1990

1.5

1995

India

2.2

3.1 1.5

(10)

0.8

(20) 2000

2005 China

2010

1990

1994 India

1998

2002

2006

2010

China SLIDE 8

VEHICLE DENSITY IN BRICS AND U.S. Vehicles in Operation (VIO)

VIO Per 1,000 Drivers

Mil. 300 250

Vehicle Density

1,200

248 1,000

Latest

200

800

150

600

100 50

Latest

400

78 30

1,000

319 204

38

200

23

28

72

0

0 Brazil Russia India China

U.S.

Brazil Russia India China

US SLIDE 9

INDIA AND CHINA -- VEHICLE DENSITY COMPARISON Vehicles per 1,000 Driving-Age People 30

India (2004-2008)

25 20

25 19 17

15 12 10 China (1996-2000) 5 0 2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

GDP PPP per Capita ( in 000s of $2005) SLIDE 10

INDIA AND CHINA -- FIRST TIME BUYERS DOMINATE

74% 63%

India

China

SLIDE 11

INDIA AND CHINA -- AGE DISTRIBUTION OF VEHICLE BUYERS China

India

42% 38% 34%

33%

20%

18% 10%

5%

Age Group

20s

30s

40s

Age Group

50+

20s

30s

40s

50+

Source: Survey on National demand for passenger vehicles - private user survey 2009, SIC, McKinsey Automotive Branding Survey 2007

SLIDE 12

INDIA AND CHINA -- VEHICLE SALES FINANCING India

China

2009 Share of Financing

2009 Share of Financing

100%

100%

90%

90%

80%

80%

71% 70%

70%

60%

60%

50%

50%

40%

40%

30%

92%

29% 30%

20%

20%

10%

10%

0%

0%

Cash

Financing

8%

Cash

Financing SLIDE 13

INDIA AND CHINA -- NET REVENUE DISTRIBUTION China

India Net Revenue ($PU)

Net Revenue ($PU)

>30,000

>30,000

30,000

30,000

25,000

25,000

S Premium U V S CD+ U V

C

CD+

SUV

S U V

20,000

20,000 B

AUV

SM CD+ U P VV

C

MPV

14,500

14,500 C

B

AUV

C

B

S U V

CD+

8,500

8,500 A & Sub B

Mini Com.

B

A& Sub B

B

C

S U V