HOW TO CREATE A BORING INVESTMENT POLICY FINNISH EXPERIENCE

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© 2015 Vanha talletussuojarahasto | Old Deposit Guarantee Fund

Mirjami Kajander‐Saarikoski

6.3.2015

”GOOD INVESTING IS BORING” ‐ GEORGE SOROS ‐

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6.3.2015

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FIVE KEY THESIS

1.

Boring is beautiful.

2.

What should be the investment objective of a DIF?

3.

Investing = risk management.

4.

Should all eggs be in the  same basket?

5.

Who cares about bechmarks?

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6.3.2015

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1. BORING IS BEAUTIFUL

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6.3.2015

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EXAMPLE OF A BORING PORTFOLIO 1998 – 2014; PAYOUT IN 2010 € Million

1 200

1 000

800

600

400

200

0 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

-200 Market value

Contributions (cum.)

Investment returns (cum.)

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6.3.2015

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STRUCTURE OF A BORING PORTFOLIO EXAMPLE Neutral allocation

Sovereign bonds Money market Corporate bonds Cash

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6.3.2015

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2. INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE OF A DIF

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6.3.2015

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THE MAIN PURPOSE OF INVESTING IS… TO SUPPORT THE MAIN TASK OF THE FUND

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6.3.2015

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INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE • Preserving the value and liquidity of investments in conditions where bank failure is most likely • (Portfolio performance on a standalone basis is of secondary importance)

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6.3.2015

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IN SHORT

Maximum amount of funds available upon bank failure

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6.3.2015

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3. INVESTING = RISK MANAGEMENT

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6.3.2015

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ALL INVESTING IS ABOUT RISK MANAGEMENT • Our viewpoint: risk • There is no risk‐free investment • What type of investment risk is   b e n e f i c i a l  for a DIF? – Which asset classes perform when bank spread (bank risk premium) is on the  rise? – Which asset types perform when the banking sector in our country / region /  the entire world is in trouble?

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6.3.2015

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WHAT HAPPENS TO BANK INSTRUMENTS UPON BANK FAILURE?

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WHAT HAPPENS TO OWN GOVERNMENT IN DOMESTIC BANKING CRISIS?

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6.3.2015

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WHAT HAPPENS TO ILLIQUID ASSETS WHENYOU NEED THE MONEY?

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STRESS TESTING: EXAMPLE THREE RELEVANT STRESS SCENARIOS CRISIS

IMPACT ON PORTFOLIO %

• 2008 Bear Stearns crash

• +0,25 %

• 2008 Lehman Brothers  crash

• ‐ 0,43 %

• Liquidity was at its weakest • Risk spreads widened greatly

• 2010 EU sovereign debt crisis

• + 0,06 %

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6.3.2015

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4. SHOULD ALL EGGS BE IN ONE BASKET?

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6.3.2015

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ALL THE EGGS IN ONE BASKET?

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6.3.2015

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”NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP”

”In recent years, the timing of sovereign crises has coincided or has directly followed banking crises. The link between sovereigns and banks tightened as  the contingent liability that the banking sector represents for the sovereign grew.” Correa, R. – Sapriza. H.: Sovereign Debt Crises, 2014.

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6.3.2015

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SAVINGS AND LOAN CRISIS, USA (LATE 80’S ) US 10Y  YIELD 1.1.1987 – 31.12.1993

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6.3.2015

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IRISH BANKING CRISIS (2010 ‐)  IE 10 Y YIELD 1.1.2010 – 31.12.2013 

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6.3.2015

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SPANISH BANKING CRISIS (2010 ‐ ) ES 10Y YIELD 1.3.2010 – 1.3.2014 

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6.3.2015

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UPCOMING RULE IN THE EU THE GOLDEN RULE OF DIVERSIFICATION • Deposit  Guarantee Directive of the European Union, Article 9: – “The available financial means of DGS shall be invested in a low‐risk and  sufficiently diversified manner.”

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5. WHO CARES ABOUT BENCHMARKS?

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WHO CARES ABOUT BENCHMARKS? • Does any benchmark behave right for you when the next bank fails? • Does any benchmark optimally communicate your needs to the asset managers? • Could a risk budget be helpful? 

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6.3.2015

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RISK BUDGET: EXAMPLE EXPECTED SHORFALL (CVAR 97,5 %, 1Y)

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6. CONCLUSIONS

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GOOD INVESTING IS AS BORING AS POSSIBLE

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6.3.2015

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