EUROPEAN COMMISSION JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE

05 October 2016, 14:00 UTC

CARIBBEAN – Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW PART 2 GDACS – Tropical Cyclone RED ALERT

Figure 1 –Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MATTHEW made landfall near Les Anglais (south-western Haiti) on 4 October at 11:00 UTC, as a very strong Category 4 Hurricane, with max. sustained winds of 230 km/h. Then it crossed the department of Grand'Anse and moved towards Cuba, still as a Category 4 Hurricane. It made a second landfall on 5 October at around 00:00 UTC over the south-eastern tip of Cuba, with max. sustained winds of 220 km/h (Category 4 Hurricane). Over the next 48 h it is forecast to move through the Bahamas, as a Category 3-4 Hurricane, and move over / off the eastern coast of Florida (USA) on 7-9 October. Heavy rains, strong winds and storm surge could affect the Bahamas and south-eastern USA on 5-8 October. Heavy rains could still affect Haiti, Cuba and Dominican Republic on 5-6 October. MATTHEW has already affected Haiti and Cuba with destructive winds and torrential rains, causing floods and damaging buildings. Preliminary reports from local media and humanitarian organisations in Haiti indicate significant damage to infrastructure and communications by Joint Research Centre, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy

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floods and at least 4 people killed. Heavy rains have affected also Dominican Republic, killing 4 people and displacing more than 20 000. The Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) has activated the Copernicus rapid mapping service for the impact of TC MATTHEW on HAITI on 3 October. The International Charter for Space and Major Disasters has been activated on 3rd October as well. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) is following the event through the information automatically collected and analysed in the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS). The classification for this event is Red for the wind impact in Haiti, Cuba and Bahamas as a consequence of the strong winds, population affected and vulnerability of the countries involved.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW Meteorological Situation: MATTHEW made landfall near Les Anglais (south-western Haiti) on 4 October at 11:00 UTC, as very strong Category 4 Hurricane, with max sustained winds of 230 km/h with higher gusts. Then it crossed the department of Grand'Anse (southwestern Haiti) and moved towards Cuba, still as a Category 4 Hurricane. It made a second landfall on 5 October at around 00:00 UTC over the south-eastern tip of Cuba, with max. sustained winds of 220 km/h (Category 4 Hurricane). Afterwards, it continued moving northwest, towards the Bahamas. On 5 October at 9:00 UTC, its center was located approx. 250 km SSE of Long Island (Bahamas) and it had max. sustained winds of 205 km/h (Category 3 Hurricane). Over the next 24 h it is forecast to move across the Bahamas, as a Category 4 Hurricane and possibly move over/close to Florida (USA) on 7-9 October. During its passage over Haiti and Cuba, very destructive winds and torrential rains affected these countries, causing floods and damage especially in Haiti. Heavy rains affected also Dominican Republic. According to this forecast, over the next few days heavy rains, strong winds and storm surge could affect the Bahamas and south-eastern USA. Heavy rains (with the risk of flash floods and landslides) could still affect Haiti, Cuba and Dominican Republic on 5-6 October. More information on the impact and GDACS alerts are provided in the next Section.

5 Oct, 9:00 UTC

Figure 2 - The map shows the Track of Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW, the areas affected by tropical storm strength winds (green), 93 km/h winds (orange), Hurricane wind strengths, > 120 km/h (red). Joint Research Centre, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy

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Atlantic -Tropical Weather Outlook In the meantime, a new Tropical Storm, NICOLE, formed over the Atlantic (far from the Caribbean islands). Over the next 48 h it is forecast to continue moving north-northwest over the Atlantic. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Moreover, a new tropical wave formed over the Atlantic and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Atlantic (see yellow x in the map below). As of 5 October morning, the probability of its development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 days is low, according to NOAA-NHC. However locally heavy rains and strong winds could affect Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next two days, as it moves through the area. The JRC is following the possible evolution of this new system.

Figure 3 - View 5 day graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (source: NOAA-NHC)

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Uncertainty forecast track/intensity According to the latest forecast, TC MATTHEW could move throughout the Bahamas on 5-7 October, as a Category 3-4 Hurricane (with max. sustained winds of 200-240 km/h) and move over / off the south-eastern coast of Florida (USA) on 7-9 October, still as a Category 3-4 Hurricane (with max. sustained winds of 180-210 km/h). MATTHEW’s track and max. sustained winds, according to different models are shown in the Figures below.

Figure 4 - TC METTHEW’s Track (source: NOAA-HWRF, http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/)

Figure 5 - TC max. 1-min sustained winds, according to different models. (source: NOAA-HWRF, http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/)

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Warnings in effect (NOAA-NHC): As of 5 October 12:00 UTC, there were the following warnings/watches in effect: HURRICANE WARNINGS   

  

 

Haiti Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,and Las Tunas Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet Lake Okeechobee

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS     

Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti Turks and Caicos Islands Chokoloskee to Golden Beach Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward Florida Bay

HURRICANE WATCHES  

Cuban province of Camaguey North of Sebastian Inlet to the Fernandina Beach

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES 

Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti

Figure 6 - Warnings in effect (NOAA-NHC), as of 5 October 06:00 UTC Joint Research Centre, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy

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2. JRC INVOLVEMENT JRC is responsible for the operation of GDACS, www.gdacs.org that plays a major role in alerting the international community to humanitarian emergencies during natural disasters. The alerts of GDACS (Green, Orange, Red) are elaborated based on the severity of the event, the population involved and the vulnerability of the countries (see Table 1 in Annex). GDACS also sends e-mail and SMS alerts to subscribed recipients. The JRC has started following this event because of the strength of this Tropical Cyclone, the very heavy rainfall that it could produce and the vulnerability of the countries potentially affected, especially Haiti. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) issued a GDACS red alert to the international humanitarian community. The JRC prepared Situation Reports for the ERCC on 30 September (Report 1) and an updated report on 3 October. The Copernicus Emergency Mapping Service was triggered by the ERCC based on GDACS forecasts on 3rd October, and the first reference maps have been delivered.

GDACS - Event alert On 30 September morning GDACS issued a RED alert (for high winds on 3 October) for this event in Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas (intense Hurricane and large number of people affected), then the forecasted track moved towards the east and a RED Alert was issued also for Haiti on 2 October. The impact due to winds, storm surge and rains are shown below, while the previous impact (in the Lesser Antilles) is shown in JRC Report 1 and in the UPDATE. The automatic GDACS report for TC MATTHEW can be found at this address: http://www.gdacs.org/report.aspx?name=MATTHEW.

Figure 7 - GDACS Alert for Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW (as of Advisory 29, 5 Oct 09:00 UTC) - Event Time Line (the Alert levels and population estimates are related to the area from a point to the next, the Category is based on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

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WINDS MATTHEW made landfall near Les Anglais (south-western Haiti) on 4 October at 11:00 UTC, as very strong Category 4 Hurricane, with max sustained winds of 230 km/h with higher gusts. Then it crossed the department of Grand'Anse (southwestern Haiti) and moved towards Cuba, still as a Category 4 Hurricane. It made a second landfall on 5 October at around 00:00 UTC over the south-eastern tip of Cuba, with max. sustained winds of 220 km/h (Category 4 Hurricane).

Figure 8 - Timeline, sust. winds and population possibly affected by Category 1 Hurricane winds or higher.

Figure 9 - Max winds over land on 4-8 Oct, according to the data of NOAA-HWRF (as of 4 Oct, 00:00 UTC) Joint Research Centre, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy

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RAINFALL TC MATTHEW caused very heavy rainfall in Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Cuba during its passage. The total accumulated rainfall (shown only for land) over 4-9 October, according to NOAAHWRF, due to the passage of TC MATTHEW is shown in the map below. The amount of rainfall expected for southern and north-western Haiti, some areas of the Dominican Republic and the eastern parts of Cuba is over 500 mm (see map below) with isolated amounts of 1000 mm (NOAA-NHC) in some areas of southern Haiti and south-western Dominican Republic. NOTE: This amount of rainfall is very high compared to the monthly average of October (150200 mm) and could produce life-threatening landslides and flash floods. Over the next 2-3 days more heavy rains could still affect the already affected areas.

Figure 10 - Total Accumulation rainfall over land forecast on 4-9 Oct, due to the passage of TC MATTHEW (data source: NOAA HWRF, 4 Oct, 00:00 UTC)

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POPULATION: Below is a map of the population density in the areas of the passage of MATTHEW, as given by Landscan™2014. This population density map, combined with the Wind and Rainfall maps in the previous section will produce the Combined Risk map that follows.

Figure 11 – Population density in the areas of the passage of MATTHEW.

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AREAS POSSIBLY MOST AFFECTED In order to show the areas most populated and possibly most affected by strong winds and heavy rainfall during the passage of TC, the JRC has classified the population (Tab 1), the winds, using the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale (see Tab 2) and the rain, using the total accumulation rainfall (see Tab 3) POPULATION Class Pop (Landscan) 0 0 - 100 1 100 - 500 2 500 – 1’000 3 1’000 – 5’000 4 5’000 – 10’000 5 10’000 – 50’000 6 50’000 – 100’000

MAX. WINDS Class 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Wind (SSHS1) TD TS Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5

RAINFALL Class 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Rain < 50 mm 50 – 100 mm 100 – 200 mm 200 – 300 mm 300 – 400 mm 400 – 500 mm > 500 mm

In order to identify the areas that could potentially by mostly affected, an attempt to create a new multi risk indicator that could take into account the wind speed the rainfall and the population density in the area, as follows:

Areas potentially most affected: (Rain Class + Wind Class) * Population Class

NOTE: This is only a rapid preliminary evaluation of the potentially most affected areas, following a part of the general definition of Risk, i.e. Risk = Hazard * Population Exposure * Vulnerability. This analysis doesn’t include the hazard of storm surge (see next section), the vulnerability of the country and the climatological information. The JRC is working on a new and more complete Combined Risk and Alert System in order to include in the alert level also the possible rainfall and the storm surge effects. The results of this preliminary analysis, as well as the AOI of Copernicus are shown in the map below. According to this first analysis the areas potentially most affected are in NW Haiti, south and south-western Haiti (yellow, orange and red colours). At the time of this report it is not yet fully known if this estimation is correct.

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Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

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Figure 12 - Areas possibly most affected (preliminary analysis)

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SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS The only available and working measurement in the area is in Port-au-Prince, thus rather far from the west areas when the higher impact is occurring. The measurements here indicate a slight increase of the sea level, above the normal astronomical tide, in the order of 10-15 cm. The comparison of the estimated height in Port-Au-Prince, from JRC calculations, show that there is consistency in the time and the amount of storm surge that was measured.

Figure 13 - Total Water Level measured in Port Au Prince

Figure 14 - Storm Surge estimated in Port Au Prince (Total water level minus tide), compared with the calculated values from GDACS

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The overall maximum Storm Surge in the Caribbean area (Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Jamaica) estimated by JRC calculations for GDACS is rather low with the following maximum values: -

Haiti: 0.9 m (L’Homond) Cuba: 0.7 m (Mata) St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 0.2 m (Fancy)

http://www.gdacs.org/show.aspx?xmlurl=http://webcritech.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ModellingCyclone /cyclonesurgeVM/1000316_NOAA/29/final/locations.xml&xslurl=XSLT/locations.xslt&pname=e venttype|mode|eventid&pvalue=TC|list| Much different situation is currently expected in the Bahamas, 2.9 m for tomorrow 6th Oct, 18:00 and United States, 1.2 m Crab Port Village.

Figure 15 - Storm surge Calculations according to JRC storm surge system (as of 5 Oct, 9:00 UTC)

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3. IMPACT Haiti: As of 10.00 UTC the extent of the damage in Haiti was not clear yet. A significant event seems to be the destruction [1] of a major bridge (Pont Digue, Petit Goave city) that connects the capital Port-au-Prince with the southern parts of the country - this could pose difficulties in delivering relief to the most affected departments, expected to be Grand’Anse, Sud, Nippes and Ouest. Damage by hurricane-force winds and floods and landslides by extremely heavy rainfall are expected in a number of towns in the westernmost part of the country, indicatively Cayes (with 70,000 inhabitants), Tiburon, Jeremie, Les Anglais, Miragoane, Jacmel. Around 2 million people live in the potentially most affected areas in Haiti. Haitian media [2] report a small number of people killed (at least four) as of 10.00 UTC on 5 October. The number of displaced was quoted as around 14,500. Flooded towns in the south and destroyed villages were reported to media by inhabitants. Same media quote the minister of interior as saying that destruction of plantations and infrastructures in the south was “heavy”. Communications are impossible with a large part of the southern areas. Humanitarian Organisations in place [3], [4] also report “catastrophic” effects in the south of country, with many communities under water and collapsed buildings.

Dominican Republic: The Emergency Operations Centre (COE, [5]) reports (as of early 05 October, UTC) about 22,000 displaced people, 4 killed, 794 people in shelters, 32 communities without communications and 447 houses affected of which ony 3 destroyed.

Cuba As of early on 05 October (UTC) there was still no information of wind or rain damage in Cuba. Wind damage could be expected in the extreme eastern parts through which the centre of MATTHEW passed, indicatively the towns of Baracoa (pop. 80,000), Punta de Maisi (pop. 30,000) Imias (pop.20,000). Flooding risk should also be high in the lower-altitude areas of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba and Holguin.

Sources: [1]: UN OCHA: http://reliefweb.int/report/haiti/hurricane-matthew-situation-report-no-2-4october-2016-1700-hours-est [2]: Alter Presse: http://www.alterpresse.org/spip.php?article20695#.V_TQI-h97Ps [3]: Caritas: http://reliefweb.int/report/haiti/hurricane-matthew-haiti-catastrophic [4]: Canadian Red Cross: http://reliefweb.int/report/haiti/la-croix-rouge-vient-en-aide-auxvictimes-de-l-ouragan-matthew [5]: COE Dominican Republic: http://coe.gob.do/

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4. INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE Due to the high vulnerability of some of the countries potentially affected by Hurricane MATTHEW, the international Humanitarian Organisations have been mobilised early. Particularly in Haiti, one of the poorest countries in the world with very high food insecurity, elementary infrastructure and endemic diseases, UNDAC teams were in place well before the arrival of the storm. A large number of NGOs were also in place, with shelter, food stocks and medical aid. Damage assessment was under way on 5 October. United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) teams as well as surge staff from several agencies and humanitarian partners have arrived in Jamaica and Haiti and are supporting national and UN system/Humanitarian Country Team efforts. OCHA surge staff is expected to arrive in Cuba on Tuesday.

Jamaica: The Government of Jamaica and its Disaster Management System is ready to receive and welcomes any assistance that can be provided by the United Nations and its various mechanisms to our Emergency Disaster Response efforts

Haiti: On 3 October, the Government of Haiti has issued a formal request for assistance to the UN system and its support mechanisms, as well as to the bilateral and multilateral cooperation and NGOs.

Cuba: The Government of Cuba has not issued a request for assistance.

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References For updated information on the disaster, please consult the following web sites: -

Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS): http://www.gdacs.org

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Emergency Response and Coordination Centre (ERCC) portal: http://ercportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

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Copernicus EMS: http://emergency.copernicus.eu/mapping/list-of-components/EMSR185

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NOAA NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents

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NOAA HWRF: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/tcall.php?selectYear=2016&selectBasin=Nort h%20Atlantic&selectStorm=MATTHEW14L

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NOAA NESDIS e-TrAP: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=MATTHEW

More information on the impact in the Lesser Antilles, as well as the countries profiles (Risk, Vulnerability, Population) are shown in JRC report of 30 September and in the updated report of 3 October.

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ANNEX I: Detailed Map of the Tropical Cyclone

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ANNEX II: GDACS alerts reference Tropical Cyclones have three dangerous effects (strong winds, storm surge and heavy rain). The GDACS alert levels are based on the risk formula factors, cyclone’s wind speed (hazard), population affected, and vulnerability of the affected country. The automatic impact assessments of GDACS for all the effects (Winds, Storm surge and Rain) are shown below. GDACS ALERTS GREEN ALERT

Moderate event, International Assistance not likely

ORANGE ALERT

Potential local disasters, International Assistance might be required

RED ALERT

Potentially severe disasters, International Assistance is expected to be required

Table 1 - GDACS alert level

The overall alert for a Tropical Cyclone comes from wind effects. 2. Storm Surge Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water above the predicted astronomical tides, generated by strong winds and by a drop in the atmospheric pressure. It was implemented in the HyFlux2 code, routinely used in GDACS to model inundation due to tsunami run-up. The GDACS alert levels are based on the maximum storm surge height: • Green when the storm surge is below 1.0m; • Orange when the storm surge is between 1.0m and 3m; • Red when the storm surge is above 3m. It should be noted that the estimation of the sea level is strongly dependent on the initial data for the wind velocity and direction and the sea level change according to each bulletin that was available 3. Rainfall Currently, GDACS uses NOAA Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) accumulation data for its alert model. The GDACS model sets alert levels based on total accumulation and maximum rain rate (mm/h) on land2.

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Usually, rainfall thresholds for alerting must consider the local climatology to identify anomalies. However, the accumulation during cyclones is so extreme that also absolute values can be used to set alert levels. GDACS thresholds are high in order to avoid “false” alerts for minor events. Only extreme events that have a high likelihood of causing floods are flagged. Joint Research Centre, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy

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