Q.31 I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for – Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? State Arizona Florida Michigan North Carolina New Hampshire Nevada Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
DK/Ref/Not Vote
Other
43 52 50
48 39 39
6 6 6
3 3 5
51
41
5
3
51 45 47 49 47
47 47 48 39 36
9 4 3 8 7
3 4 2 5 10
Q.35 Now let me as you again, I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for – Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump or Libertarian Gary Johnson? Hillary Donald Gary DK/Ref/Not State Clinton Trump Johnson Other Vote Arizona 39 45 10 3 4 Florida 49 38 9 2 2 Michigan 48 33 12 3 3 North Carolina 48 38 8 1 4 New Hampshire 41 41 10 5 4 Nevada 44 44 9 1 3 Ohio 41 41 14 1 4 Pennsylvania 45 36 13 2 4 Wisconsin 44 32 16 3 5 Q.37 (DO NOT ASK IN MICHIGAN OR FLORIDA) Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November, I know it's a long way off, but if the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you be voting for -- (Democratic incumbent/candidate ) or (Republican incumbent/candidate)? DK/Ref/Not State Democratic Republican Other Vote Arizona 42 44 4 10
North Carolina New Hampshire Nevada Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin
38
36
1
25
47 41 43 38 46
46 46 40 46 45
1 0 2 1 0
5 13 15 15 9
Battleground 2016: new game June 30, 2016
Methodology Battleground Survey of 2700 Likely 2016 Voters in 9 competitive presidential battleground states. This survey took place June 11 - 20. Respondents who voted in the 2012 election, 2014 election, or registered since the 2014 election were selected from the national voter file. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in 2016. Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample = +/-1.89 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Respondents were divided equally among states (n=300) of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Margin of error for each state sample= +/5.66 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Forty-nine percent of respondents were reached by cell phone, in order to account for ever-changing demographics and accurately sample the full electorate in each state. Regression analysis. A series of fractional logistic regressions were conducted to obtain the marginal effects of the explanatory variable (presidential vote) on outcome variables (associations, statement pairs), representing the change in outcome probabilities estimated for the explanatory variable, all else held equal. No causation is implied by these results.
1
State Breakdowns Senate Battleground: Arizona
Diverse Target States:
Florida*
Arizona Florida Nevada North Carolina
Nevada
North Carolina Ohio New Hampshire Pennsylvania Wisconsin
Rustbelt Target States: Ohio New Hampshire Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan
*The Senate vote results were excluded in Florida where Senator Rubio had not yet announced his candidacy. 2
THE PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
3
Clinton leads Trump across the battleground I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)?
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND +8
+7
49
45
41
38
11
10 Hillary Clinton
Donald 2-Way TrumpVote
2 – Way Vote
Other/DK
Hillary Clinton
Donald Gary 3-Way Vote Trump Johnson
6 Other/DK
3 – Way Vote 4
Trump and state GOP leaders now face of toxic GOP brand Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so.
Mean: 53.5
Mean: 47.9
Net: +13
Net: +1
53
40
43
Very warm (75-100) Mean: Mean: 42.4 48.0 Net: -11 Net: -1
42
25
25
34
32
33
40
42
43
Barack Obama
Bernie Sanders
Democratic Party
Very cool (0-25) Mean: 40.2
Mean: 40.7
Mean: 34.2
Net: -19
Net: -13
Net: -30
32
31
30
13
10
18
45
39
34
52
51
Hillary Clinton
Republican Party
41 27
51
44 60 GOP in State Legislature
Donald Trump
5
Trump gets less than half of the white vote, even in 2-way race I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, [or Libertarian Gary Johnson]?
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND +10
+9
+81
+44
86 64
49
45
39
36 12
Clinton Trump
Clinton Trump Johnson
White
5
7
Clinton Trump Johnson
African American
20
12
Clinton Trump Johnson
Hispanic 6
Clinton winning all generations, including millennials I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND +22
+4
+2
+2
+7
48
46
41 36 24
22
46 41
39
44
32
25 13
5
5
Clinton Trump Johnson
Clinton Trump Johnson
Clinton Trump Johnson
Clinton Trump Johnson
Clinton Trump Johnson
Millennials
White Millennials
Gen X
Baby Boomers
Silent
7
NEW CHART
The 2016 “women’s vote” is more complicated than you think PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Married Women
Unmarried Women
(27% of Clinton vote)
(31% of Clinton vote)
2016 Vote
2012 Vote
(2-way)
1
2
Clinton
Obama
2016 Vote
2012 Vote
(2-way) Obama
Clinton
10
33
Romney
Trump
26
66
63
Other/DK /Refused
45 53
Other/DK /Refused
45
Romney Other/DK /Refused
Other/DK /Refused
White Non-College Educated Women
(28% of Clinton Vote)
(18% of Clinton vote)
2012 Vote
2016 Vote (2-way)
Obama
2
Clinton
2016 Vote Obama
(2-way)
11
Other/DK /Refused
39
Trump 32
56
Clinton
11
Romney
43
Trump
46
College-Educated Women
2012 Vote 1
10
57
59
Other/DK /Refused
39
Romney Other/DK /Refused
50
Trump Other/DK /Refused
8
Improved margins among unmarried women from 2012 I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
White Unmarried Women
Unmarried Women +39
+33 66
+5
+19
62 52
47
33
50 31
23 13
10 Obama Romney
Clinton Trump Johnson
Obama Romney
Clinton Trump Johnson
2012
2016
2012
2016 9
Marriage gap sustained, even though married women now even I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
2016 Marriage Gap: 40
2012 Marriage Gap: 41 +33
+8
+1
+39
66
62
53 45
42
43
33
23 8 Obama
Romney
Married Women
Obama
Romney
Unmarried Women
10
Clinton Trump Johnson
Clinton Trump Johnson
Married Women
Unmarried Women 10
RAE less determined to vote than non-RAE, driven by millennials How much do the elections this November for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices matter this year? Please rate how much they matter from one to ten, with one meaning they don’t matter at all and ten meaning they matter tremendously. You can choose any number between one and ten.
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
% 10 – Matters Tremendously 78
77
75
75
75
75
73
73
70
69
69
69
69
68
68 59
58
11
Never Trump nearing half Even though you are not supporting Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump now, what are the chances that you might support Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump in the election for President in November – is there a fair chance that you might support Clinton/Trump, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support Clinton/Trump for President in November?
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
48
45 40
11
10 Voting for Clinton
Considering Clinton
Clinton Vote
38
Never Clinton
Voting for Trump Considering Trump
Never Trump
Trump Vote 12
Composition of Clinton’s winnable voters I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? Even though you are not supporting Hillary Clinton now, what are the chances that you might support Hillary Clinton in the election for President in November – is there a fair chance that you might support Clinton, a small chance, just a very slight chance or no chance at all that you might support Clinton for President in November?
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
Clinton’s Winnable Voters
65 55
51
27
26
24
20 8
Dem
Ind
Rep
Partisanship
Clinton Sanders Other
Democratic Primary
3 Trump
16
2
Cruz
Kasich
Rubio
Other
Republican Primary 13
Clinton has consolidated 9-in-10 Democrats, Trump only 8-in-10, and real Libertarian vote with Independents I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND 89 80
32
33 24
Clinton
4
5
Trump
Johnson
Democrats (40%)
5 Clinton
Trump
Johnson
Independents (24%)
11
Clinton
Trump
Johnson
Republicans (35%) 14
Majority of Johnson voters are Republican, but three-in-ten will vote for Clinton in 2-way ballot I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)?
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
Johnson Voters
52 31
36
30
24 15 Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Other
2-Way Vote
DK/Refused
10 Democrat
Independent
Republican
Partisanship
*Partisanship is show by Democrats/Democratic leaning Independents, Republicans/Republican leaning Independents
15
Romney defectors driven by leadership/immigration, Obama defectors by desire for change/nationalism/economy I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each one, please tell me whether you feel the phrase better describes Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. ROMNEY ‘12, NOT TRUMP ‘16 Income
36
12 19
Immigration
23
Values
16
Middle class
26
Strong Leader Special interests Right kind of change
11
28
5
16 26
Economy
59
37
49
+26
Incomes & wages
18
31
+15
Taxes
+2
Stands for America
56
Special interests
48
+5
Right kind of change
51
+10
Issues matter to me
51
The future
49
26
Strong leader
47
31
14
28
49 +31
16
33
31
46 +30
23
8
+3
26
8 14
21
39
17
18
Has what it takes The future
9
OBAMA ‘12 NOT CLINTON ‘16
16
31
+5
51 46
7
22
+37
21 10
28 +23
23
23 +23
34
9 6
+39
17
7
21
+27
30
5
15
+46
32
6
19
+32
19
+40
25
10
29 +17 16
THE RUST BELT PLAY & DIVERSE STATE STRATEGY
17
Very different demographics in these sets of states RUSTBELT STATES % of Voters
81 47
53
13 RAE
Non-RAE
White
3
African Hispanic American
18
23
22
Minority Unmarried Millennial Women
DIVERSE STATES
20
24
White NonCollege Men
White NonCollege Women
% of Voters
67 56 44 31 14 RAE
Non-RAE
White
14
African Hispanic American
25
22
Minority Unmarried Millennial Women
15 White NonCollege Men
20 White NonCollege Women 18
Clinton's margin across both areas suggests big Electoral College battleground I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
DIVERSE STATES
RUSTBELT STATES
+8
+8
47
44 39
36
9 Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Gary Johnson
5 Other/DK
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
13
6
Gary Johnson
Other/DK
19
Growing diversity producing bigger battleground I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)?
DIVERSE STATES
+11
+10
49
48 38
44
--
+6
44
45 39
38
9
8
9
10
Clinton Trump Johnson
Clinton Trump Johnson
Clinton Trump Johnson
Clinton Trump Johnson
Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Arizona
20
And running ahead of 2012 margins in the diverse states I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
Diverse States
+4 +10
+10 +6
+1
54 45
44
-6 +11
50 49
2012 Pres.
2016 Pres.
Arizona
+6
--
52
49
39
+13
46
44 44
-3
48
+10
51
48
38
2012 Pres.
2016 Pres.
Florida
38
2012 Pres.
2016 Pres.
Nevada
2012 Pres.
2016 Pres.
North Carolina 21
No advantage for Trump in the states he needs to win I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump (or Libertarian Gary Johnson)?
RUSTBELT STATES
--
41
--
41
41
14
+9
+12
45
41
48
44
36
10
+15
33
32
13
16
12
Clinton Trump Johnson
Clinton Trump Johnson
Clinton Trump Johnson
Clinton Trump Johnson
Clinton Trump Johnson
Ohio
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan
22
RAE vote comparable in two areas, so composition is everything I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, [or Libertarian Gary Johnson]?
Clinton
Trump
Johnson
RUSTBELT STATES +33
+37
DIVERSE STATES
+64
+24
+35
+41
+60
75
75
60
55
+20
64
60
48
45 22
RAE
17
28
23
21 10
11 12
Unmarried Women
Minorities
25 10
Millennials
RAE
28
23 10 Unmarried Women
15 6 Minorities
15 Millennials
23
Trump performs better with working class men in diverse states I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
RUSTBELT STATES +18
DIVERSE STATES +7
+30
+15
61 50
52 43 36
32
31 14
Clinton
37
Trump Johnson
White Non-College Men
11 Clinton
Trump Johnson
White Non-College Women
3 Clinton
Trump Johnson
White Non-College Men
9 Clinton
Trump Johnson
White Non-College Women 24
VALUES & LEADERSHIP
25
Majorities disagree with Trump’s outlook on society Now I am going to read some pairs of short statements some people have made about our nation. After I read each pair, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view even if neither statement is exactly right. Much more Much more PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND
Immigrants today are a burden on our country.
+22
33
Immigrants today strengthen our country.
18
31
More and more, I don't identify with what America has become.
+13
54
More and more, America is a place that I can feel comfortable as myself.
28
20
Whites are losing out because of preferences for blacks and Hispanics.
+29
27
12
15
41
Blacks and Hispanics face discrimination that needs public attention.
30
Women who demand equality are actually seeking special favors.
+59
55
5
56
Women get fewer opportunities than men for equal pay and good paying jobs.
45
74 26
Trump supporters are particularly isolated on immigrants Now I am going to read some pairs of short statements some people have made about our nation. After I read each pair, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view even if neither statement is exactly right.
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Strengthen much more
Immigrants today strengthen our country. +25
+22
Burden much more
Immigrants today are a burden on our country.
+35
+58
+19
+26
74 62 55
55 33
47
30
39
16
34
presidential BG voters
Total BG
12 Trump Votes
Trump Voters
34
27
31 18
57
53
13 Johnson Voters
Johnson Voters
7 Clinton Voters
Clinton Voters
31 34
30
19 Rustbelt States
Rustbelt States
17 Diverse States
Diverse States
27
Clinton leads on values & qualifications I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each one, please tell me whether you feel the phrase better describes Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Strongest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions Weakest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Trump much more
Has what it takes to be President
35
Clinton much more
21
40
52
+17
For the middle class
37
24
36
52
+15
The right approach to immigration
39
27
38
52
+13
Shares your values
37
33
48
+12
Best for America’s future
40
35
48
+8
Raising incomes and wages
41
28
48
+7
Will bring the right kind of change
41
30
46
+5
21 27 22 26
28
But at parity on the economy and safety I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each one, please tell me whether you feel the phrase better describes Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Strongest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions Weakest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Trump much more
Stands up for corporate special interests on behalf of ordinary people
39
Finally raising issues that matter to me
42
29
Strong leader
44
Safety
45
The right approach to taxes
43
Clinton much more
44
+5
32
46
+4
31
34
46
+2
33
34
46
+1
25
44
+1
21
26
24
A better economy
47
33
30
46
+1
Stands up for America
46
34
32
44
+3
Honesty
42
38
+4
26
24
29
Her lead is based on her leadership qualities Now I am going to read you a list of reasons people say they might vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. After I read this list, tell me which THREE are the most important in your decision. Strongest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions Weakest relationship with Clinton vote in regressions
PRESIDENTIAL BATTLEGROUND Jobs and the economy
47
Safe from terrorists
38
Obamacare
30
Immigration
25
Qualifications for President
23
President Obama's work
22
Abortion rights/Gay marriage
21
Affirmative action/Equal rights
16
Big business and big money
15
Family and women
13
Authentic and likeable
6 30
THE SENATE STORY
31
Room for Democratic Senate vote to grow in diverse states I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you be voting for – (Democratic incumbent/candidate) or (Republican incumbent/candidate)?
DIVERSE STATES Clinton
+6
39
Trump
+2
45
President
42
AZ
Arizona
Dem Senate Cand.
+10
44
Senate
Rep Senate Cand.
48 38
President
38
NC
44
44
41
36
Senate
North Carolina
+5
--
+2
President
NV
46
Senate
Nevada 32
Democratic Senate candidates competitive with room to grow I know it’s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you be voting for – (Democratic incumbent/candidate) or (Republican incumbent/candidate)?
RUSTBELT STATES Clinton
--
+1
47 46
41 41
President
NH
Senate
New Hampshire
Trump
Dem Senate Cand.
--
+3
41 41
43 40
President OH Senate
Ohio
+9
Rep Senate Cand.
+12
+8
46
45 36
38
President PA Senate
Pennsylvania
+1
46 45
44 32
PresidentWI
Senate
Wisconsin 33
One quarter of GOP Senate voters defect on hearing GOP abortion, gun and gay marriage agenda Now I am going to read you a list of positions taken by Republican candidates for U.S. Congress and the legislature in [STATE]. The Republican candidates oppose: • Restricting gun rights for people on the terror watch list and outlawing the sale of assault rifles • New laws guaranteeing equal pay for women • Abortion, even in cases of rape and incest • Gay marriage and new laws barring discrimination against gays, lesbians and transgender people After hearing the Republican candidates takes these positions, would you now vote for his or her Democratic opponent?
Not Voting for Senate Democrat* +35
57
25
10 Very certain to vote for Democrats
Somewhat certain to vote for Democrats
Will not vote for Democrats
* And those who don’t ID as Democrats in Michigan
34
Abortion, guns and gay marriage drive GOP Senate voters to Democrats down ballot [IFWILL VOTE FOR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE AFTER HEARING GOP INFO] Which one of the Republican candidates' positions bothered you the most?
SENATE BATTLEGROUND
Opposes abortion, even in cases of rape and incest
36
Opposes restricting gun rights for people on the terror watch list and outlawing the sale of assault rifles Opposes gay marriage and new laws barring discrimination against gays, lesbians and transgender people
Opposes new laws guaranteeing equal pay for women
19
13
10
15 percent volunteered all of the above
35
Democratic votes to be gained down-ballot, especially among RAE in diverse states Now I am going to read you a list of positions taken by Republican candidates for U.S. Congress and the legislature in [STATE]. The Republican candidates oppose: • Restricting gun rights for people on the terror watch list and outlawing the sale of assault rifles • New laws guaranteeing equal pay for women • Abortion, even in cases of rape and incest • Gay marriage and new laws barring discrimination against gays, lesbians and transgender people After hearing the Republican candidates take these positions, would you now vote for his or her Democratic opponent?
Will not vote for Democrats
Not Voting for Senate Democrat*
Very certain vote for Dems
77 61
57
49 64 38
41
4
5
41
36
7
8
53 33
15 1
2
Clinton NOT Senate Dem
3
Undecided in Senate Vote
* And those who don’t ID as Democrats in Michigan
6
RAE Diverse States
55
9
10
11
Unmarried Women Diverse States
12
37
40
13
14
Millennials Diverse States 36
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