Digital Learning Futures Current trends and future technologies for Learning and Development Steve Wheeler @timbuckteeth Plymouth University, UK Flanders Learning and Development Conference, Brussels: October 9, 2014

Steve Wheeler, University of Plymouth, 2014 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/

Image Credits: http://www.plymouth.gov.uk/

http://www.staedte-fotos.de/1024/plymouth-die-mayflower-steps-an-33876.jpg

‘If youThe thinkgoal education is expensive… of education try ignorance’ – Derek Bok

http://www.dailymail.co.uk

New York, c 2014

Photo by Steve Wheeler

New York, c 1904

http://daytoninmanhattan.blogspot.co.uk/2010_03_01_archive.html

“I truly believe that one day, there will be a telephone in every town in America.”

- Alexander Graham Bell Photo by Steve Wheeler

The First Mobile Phone

Photo by Steve Wheeler

Steve Wheeler, University of Plymouth, 2014

“It is impossible to predict the future with great accuracy” – Michio Kaku

http://www.digitaltrends.com

The Future...?

• 1989: ‘The future is multi-media’ • 1999: ‘The future is the Web’ • 2009: ‘The future is smart mobile’ hof.povray.org

Where have we come from? http://photos.jeremybrooks.net/?p=65

Work 2000

http://www.sabotagetimes.com/life/a-vision-of-the-future-from-1910/

Villemard

Leisure 2000

http://www.sabotagetimes.com/life/a-vision-of-the-future-from-1910/

Villemard

Conflict 2000

http://www.sabotagetimes.com/life/a-vision-of-the-future-from-1910/

Villemard

Policing 2000

http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-501465_162-10013397-8.html

Villemard

Communication 2000

http://www.sabotagetimes.com/life/a-vision-of-the-future-from-1910/

Villemard

Learning 2000

Disruptive Technology http://www.sabotagetimes.com/life/a-vision-of-the-future-from-1910/

Villemard

Law of Disruption Social, political, and economic systems change incrementally, but technology changes exponentially. Larry Downes

“This is for everyone”

Image source: http://www.masterlink.com/blog

“The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed” – William Gibson

http://intergalacticrobot.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/helen-oloy.html

Steve Wheeler, University of Plymouth, 2014

Rogers Diffusion of Ideas Model

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/11/Diffusion_of_ideas.svg

Where are we NOW? http://photos.jeremybrooks.net/?p=65

Just for me

Apprenticeship model

Just in case Bespoke Courses

Standardised Courses

Just in time

Personalised Learning

Personal Learning Environment

Just for me

Steve Wheeler, University of Plymouth, 2014

Trends in Learning & Development

Photo: Lori Cullen

Learners taking notes

Steve Wheeler, University of Plymouth, 2014

We learn by making (Papert, 1960) Photo by Steve Wheeler

‘New’ learners are... • • • • •

more self-directed better equipped to capture information more reliant on feedback from peers more inclined to collaborate more oriented toward being their own “nodes of production”.

Education Trends | Featured News John K. Waters—13 December 2011 http://coolshots.blogspot.com/2007_02_01_archive.html

“Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him an iPhone.”

- Abraham Lincoln (on the ‘selfie’) http://thesocietypages.org/cyborgology

- Thomas Edison

We need ‘digital wisdom’

Steve Wheeler, University of Plymouth, 2014

“60% of all Internet pages contain misleading information.”

Learners will need new ‘literacies’ Social networking Privacy maintenance Identity management Creating content Organising content Reusing and repurposing Filtering and selecting Self presention Transliteracy

Steve Wheeler, University of Plymouth, 2014

• • • • • • • • •

http://www.mopocket.com/

Leaning 2.0 – Digital Literacies Mastery Literacies

Competencies Skills Graphic by Steve Wheeler (2013)

Personal/Social Tools

We need ‘digital fluency’ http://www.flickr.com/photos/kalexanderson/6156510808/sizes/l/

Photo by Steve Wheeler

Communities of Learning

Photo by Steve Wheeler

Professional Learning Networks

Photo by Steve Wheeler

Professional Learning Networks

Photo by Steve Wheeler

Professional Learning Networks

Photo by Steve Wheeler

Professional Learning Networks

Photo by Steve Wheeler

Professional Learning Networks

Connectivism

Paragogy

Distributed Cognition

Steve Wheeler, University of Plymouth, 2014

I store my knowledge with my friends

BYOD or CYOD? One of the biggest issues is tracking and controlling access to corporate and private networks.

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/117/291379959_594fa8ef70.jpg

Architecture of participation Sharing Collaborating

Tools

Learning 2.0

Tagging

User generated content

Voting Networking

C

X

Embedded MOOCs?

Where are we headed? http://photos.jeremybrooks.net/?p=65

The NMC Horizon Project charts the landscape of emerging technologies for teaching, learning, research, creative inquiry, and information management

Great Expectations 2012 Emerging Technology

• • • • • •

Time to adoption

Mobile Learning Apps Tablet Computing Games based learning Learner Analytics (big data) The Internet of Things Gestural computing

1 Year or Less 2 to 3 Years 4 to 5 Years

Graphics concept by Steve Wheeler Source: http://www.educause.edu/library/resources/2012-horizon-report

Games playing offers instant feedback on learning through achievement and points systems

Photo by Steve Wheeler

Use of intelligent data, learner-produced data, and analysis models to discover information and social connections for predicting and advising people's learning. @davduran

Voice and natural gesture interfaces

http://www.beehivecity.com

Great Expectations 2014 Emerging Technology

• • • • • •

Time to adoption

Flipped Classroom Learner Analytics 3D Printing Games and Gamification The Quantified Self Virtual Assistants

1 Year or Less 2 to 3 Years 4 to 5 Years

Graphics concept by Steve Wheeler Source: http://www.educause.edu/library/resources/2014-horizon-report

The Future...? “Change is not linear. It’s exponential” – Ray Kurzweil

• • • •

1989: ‘The future is multi-media’ 1999: ‘The future is the Web’ 2009: ‘The future is smart mobile’ 2014: ‘The future is pervasive tech’

hof.povray.org

Learning 3.0 Distributed (Cloud) computing Extended smart mobile technology Collaborative intelligent filtering 3D visualisation and interaction

Future Learning Topology Infrastructure

Distributed (Cloud) Computing

Interface

3D Visualisation and Interaction

Tools

Smart Mobile Technology

Interaction

Collaborative Intelligent Filtering

Graphic by Steve Wheeler

Degree of Information Connectivity

Adapted from : Nova Spivak

Web 3.0

Web x.0

Semantic Web

Meta Web

Web 1.0

Web 2.0

The Web

Degree of Social Connectivity

Social Web

Degree of Information Connectivity

The (Smart) eXtended Web Web 3.0

Web x.0

Semantic Web

Meta Web

Connects knowledge

Connects intelligence

Web 1.0

Web 2.0

The Web

Connects information

Social Web

Connects people

Degree of Social Connectivity

We are already seeing early evidence of the Smart eXtended Web

http://chemistscorner.com

Intelligent Filtering Recommender Systems Sentiment Tracking Etc…

A glimpse into the future… http://photos.jeremybrooks.net/?p=65

High

Mobile Computing

Ubiquitous Computing

Low

Mobility

The Internet of Things

Traditional Computing

Pervasive Computing

Low

High

Embeddedness Source: Lyytinen (2003) Photo by Steve Wheeler

Table takes food order and your payment

Late for meeting?

Finds best routes with ramp access

Ubiquitous Computing

Under floor sensors track footfall Photo by Steve Wheeler

Wearable Web

Memory Extension Vision Enhancement

Augmented Reality Ubiquitous connection The Quantified Self http://abdtechnology.com/tag/google-glass/

Mixed Reality

http://petitinvention.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/snowcorn5.jpg

Marker Technology

http://advertiser-in-arabia.blogspot.co.uk/

Muse: Mind controlled computing? “Improving your concentration and focus, de-stressing, managing your thinking – and new control interface possibilities” - Interaxon (2012) http://www.indiegogo.com

Wearable Sensors

“The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them, into the impossible.” Arthur C. Clarke Image: http://www.astrobio.net

Photo by Steve Wheeler

Thank you W: http://steve-wheeler.net E: [email protected] B: http://steve-wheeler.blogspot.com T: @timbuckteeth