Did We Know It All Along? Hindsight Bias

Unit 2: Research Methods: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science Did We Know It All Along? Hindsight Bias • Hindsight Bias –“I knew it all a...
Author: Lenard Higgins
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Unit 2: Research Methods: Thinking Critically with Psychological Science

Did We Know It All Along? Hindsight Bias • Hindsight Bias –“I knew it all along” – “Out of sight, out of mind” – “Absence makes the heart grow fonder”

Overconfidence • Overconfidence –Together with hindsight bias, can lead to overestimate our intuition

The Scientific Attitude • Three main components –Curious eagerness –Skeptically scrutinize competing ideas –Open-minded humility before nature

Critical Thinking • Critical Thinking –“Smart thinking” –Four elements • Examines assumptions • Discerns hidden values • Evaluates evidence • Assesses conclusions

How Do Psychologists Ask and Answer Questions?

The Scientific Method • Theory –“mere hunch”

• Hypothesis –Can be confirmed or refuted

• Operational Definition • Replication (repeat)

Figure 2.1 Theory construction

Figure 2.2 Flowchart of steps in a scientific investigation

The Scientific Method: Terminology

• Operational definitions are used to clarify precisely what is meant by each variable • Participants or subjects are the organisms whose behavior is systematically observed in a study • Data collection techniques allow for empirical observation and measurement • Statistics are used to analyze data and decide whether hypotheses were supported

Table 2.1 Key Data Collection Techniques in Psychology

The Scientific Method: Terminology

• Findings are shared through reports at scientific meetings and in scientific journals – periodicals that publish technical and scholarly material – Advantages of the scientific method: clarity of communication and relative intolerance of error

• Research methods: general strategies for conducting scientific studies

The Scientific Method • A good theory is useful if it: –Effectively organizes a range of self-reports and observations –Implies clear predictions that anyone can use to check the theory

Types of Psychological Research 1. Experimental 2. Descriptive 3. Correlational

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Experimental Research: Looking for Causes • Experiment Manipulation of one variable under controlled conditions so that resulting changes in another variable can be observed – Detection of cause-and-effect relationships • Independent variable (IV) = variable manipulated • Dependent variable (DV) = variable affected by manipulation – How does X affect Y? – X = Independent Variable, and Y = Dependent Variable

Experimental and Control Groups: The Logic of the Scientific Method • Experimental group

• Control group – Random assignment • Different from random sample – Manipulate independent variable for one group only – Resulting differences in the two groups must be due to the independent variable • Eliminates alternative explanations • Extraneous and confounding variables

Experimentation Random Assignment • Blind (uninformed) –Single-Blind Procedure –Double-Blind Procedure

• Placebo Effect

Experimentation Random Assignment • Groups –Experimental Group • Receives the treatment (independent variable) –Control Group • Does not receive the treatment

Experimentation Independent and Dependent Variables • Independent Variable –Confounding variable • Effects minimized by using random assignment

• Dependent Variable –What is being measured

Figure 2.5 The basic elements of an experiment

Experimental Design

Strengths and Weaknesses of Experimental Research

• Strengths: – conclusions about cause-and-effect can be drawn

• Weaknesses: – artificial nature of experiments – ethical and practical issues

Descriptive Methods: Looking for Relationships • Methods used when a researcher cannot manipulate the variables under study – Naturalistic observation – Case studies – Surveys • Allow researchers to describe patterns of behavior and discover links or associations between variables but cannot imply causation

Descriptive Naturalistic Observation • Naturalistic Observation –Describes behavior • Describing behavior is the first step in predicting it –Does not explain behavior

Descriptive The Case Study •

Case Study – Cannot discern general truths – Mostly used to • gather insights and ideas, particularly in the early stages of investigating a topic

• describe rare phenomena • create psychobiographies of famous people • provide illustrative anecdotes – Limitations

• useless in providing evidence to test behavioral theories or treatments – uncontrolled environment and no comparison information • no way of assessing the reliability or validity of the researcher’s observations or interpretations

Descriptive The Survey • Survey – Looks at many cases at once • Word effects

• 5 Rules of question design – Balance questions – Don’t assume knowledge

– Ignorance of numbers or words

– Use everyday language

– Acceptable rather than honest responses

– Don’t employ pejoratives

– Questions are poorly framed – Wording in emotionally charged issues – Range of response options

– Order of questions and alternatives

– Be concrete/clear • Random sampling

– Representative sample

Descriptive The Survey • Sampling –Population –Random Sample

Figure 2.10 Comparison of major research methods

Correlation Correlation and Causation • Correlation helps predict –Does not imply cause and effect

Comparing Research Methods

Ethics in Research • Ethics in animal research –Reasons for using animals in research –Safeguards for animal use

Ethics in Psychological Research: Do the Ends Justify the Means?

• The question of deception • The question of animal research – Controversy among psychologists and the public

• Ethical standards for research: the American Psychological Association – Ensures both human and animal subjects are treated with dignity

Ethics in Research • Ethics in human research –Informed consent –Protect from harm and discomfort –Maintain confidentiality –Debriefing

Figure 2.17 Ethics in research

TUESDAY’S EXAM • Will include: – Everything on this slide – Approaches to Psychology • • • • • • •

Neurobiological Evolutionary Psychodynamic Behavioral Cognitive Sociocultural Humanistic 38

A Mnemonic to Help You Remember the 7 Approaches •

Each finger on your hand and the palm can represent a different perspective: – The thumb = Psychodynamic • Stick out your thumb and make a gesture over your shoulder while turning your head in that direction. You are “looking back,” just as a psychodynamic psychologist does when they are focusing on the past and unconscious conflicts stemming from childhood.

– The index finger = Cognitive • Point to your head like you are thinking. The cognitive perspective looks at how we process, store, and interpret information.

– The middle finger = Behavioral • How do you know what it means to “flip someone off”? You learned it. This relates to the idea of rewards, punishments, and modeling. Flipping the bird is also an observable behavior, and behaviorists focus on what can be seen and measured only.

– The ring finger = Humanistic • Try to lift your ring finger straight (without any other fingers going up also) – it can’t be done! Now use your other fingers to push it up… much better. Humanists believe that we need others to help us “reach our fullest potential,” and Rogers’ theory of unconditional positive regard does the trick.

– The pinky finger = Biological • Finish my sentence: “Pinky and the ______.” Behaviorists look at the tie between our behavior and our biology. But our knowledge base for this is still relatively small – like our pinky.

– The palm = Sociocultural • Make a “gathering” movement with both hands, bringing them to your chest. We are gathering all people together, all cultures. To understand others we must understand the culture they are from. Differences are good!

– The “evolved sixth finger” = Evolutionary • Hold up a finger from your other hand and pretend that you have 6 fingers instead of 5.

Definition Slides

Hindsight Bias = the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. • Also known as the “I knew it all along” phenomenon.

Critical Thinking = thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions. Rather, it examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions.

Theory = an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events.

Hypothesis = a testable prediction, often implied by a theory.

Operational Definition = a statement of the procedures (operations) used to define research variables. • i.e. Human intelligence may be operationally defined as what an intelligence test measures.

Replication = repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances.

Case Study = an observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles.

Survey = a technique for ascertaining the selfreported attitudes or behaviors of a particular group, usually by questioning a representative, random sample of the group.

Population = all the cases in a group being studied, from which samples may be drawn. • Note: Except for national studies, this does NOT refer to a country’s whole population.

Random Sample = a sample that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance of inclusion.

Naturalistic Observation = observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation.

Correlation = a measure of the extent to which two factors vary together, and thus of how well either factor predicts the other.

Experiment = a research method in which an investigator manipulates one or more factors (independent variables) to observe the effect on some behavior or mental process (the dependent variable). By random assignment of participants, the experimenter aims to control other relevant factors.

Random Assigment = assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chance, thus minimizing preexisting differences between those assigned to the different groups.

Double-Blind Procedure = an experimental procedure in which both the research participants and the research staff are ignorant (blind) about whether the research participants have received the treatment or the placebo. Commonly used in drug-evaluation studies.

Placebo Effect = experimental results caused by expectation alone; any effect on behavior caused by the administration of an inert substance or condition, which the recipient assumes is an active agent.

Experimental Group = in an experiment, the group that is exposed to the treatment, that is, to one version of the independent variable.

Control Group = in an experiment, the group that is NOT exposed to the treatment; contrasts with the experimental group and serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of treatment.

Independent Variable = the experimental factor that is manipulated; the variable whose effect is being studied.

Confounding Variable = a factor other than the independent variable that might produce an effect in an experiment.

Dependent Variable = the outcome factor; the variable that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable.

Mean = the arithmetic average of a distribution, obtained by adding the scores and then dividing by the number of scores.

Culture = the enduring behavior, ideas, attitudes, and traditions shared by a group of people and transmitted from one generation to the next.

Informed Consent = an ethical principle that research participants be told enough to enable them to choose whether they wish to participate.

Debriefing = the postexperimental explanation of a study, including its purpose and any deceptions, to its participants.