Development of High Resolution Models and Its Applications for Weather and Climate Risk Reduction in Indonesia:

The First International Workshop on Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological Disasters in Southeast Asia Kyoto, Japan, 3-5 March 2008 BMG Develop...
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The First International Workshop on Prevention and Mitigation of Meteorological Disasters in Southeast Asia Kyoto, Japan, 3-5 March 2008

BMG

Development of High Resolution Models and Its Applications for Weather and Climate Risk Reduction in Indonesia: Recent Development using CCAM

Mezak A. Ratag Director for Research & Development - BMG

Indonesia Meteorological & Geophysical Agency (BMG)

Climate Forecast Applications BMG

Outline

• Introduction • The needs of meteorological services at regency/district scale • Forecasting approach: Introducing CCAM • Some remarks on applications and dissemination activities Acknowledgement. The slides on CCAM are mostly based on the material prepared by Marcus Tatcher (CMAR – CSIRO). The results of CCAM presented here are all the outputs of the model run at BMG R&D Centre

Sectorial Applications

Kel-1 : bag sel Haurgelis/ Gabuswetan/ Bangodua Kel-2 : bag.utara Indramayu Kel-3 : bag.utara Anjatan/Sukra Kel-4 : Krangkeng /Karangampel Juntinyuat/ Sliyeg/Kertasemaya/ Jatibarang/Widasari/Sindang/ Lohbener/ bag.Utara Bangodua Kel-5 : Kandanghaur/Bongas/bag.utara Gabuswetan/bag.timur Anjatan/Lohsarang

BMG Kel-6 : Cikedung /bag.sel.Gabuswetan /bag.utara Haurgelis/ Lelea

BMG

JEMBER, EAST JAVA

MINAHASA NORTH SULAWESI

TANAH DATAR WEST SUMATRA

BANDUNG WEST JAVA

BLITAR EAST JAVA

MALANG EAST JAVA

10 REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTERS + 30 HYDROMET-HAZARDS WARNING SYSTEM

REG. CENTER 1

REG. CENTER 10

REG. CENTER 5

REG. CENTER 6

NAT’ NAT’L. CENTER

REG. CENTER 4 REG. CENTER 9

REG. CENTER 2

REG. CENTER 7

REG. CENTER 3

Pilot sites for Climate Appl.: 45 Regencies/ Districts Water Management (~10%)

REG. CENTER 8

Horticulture Pest Management

Rice Production Rice Production Flood Plantation Landslide Flood

Salt Mining

600

Observed Statistical Downscaling Dynamical Downscaling

Monthly Rainfall (mm/month)

Biak

20

400

200

Dynamical models: experimental, low performance 0 1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

0 1992

Spatial Planning

Statistical Models AR Multiregr.

Water resources

EOF ANFIS

Filter Wave- Kalman

let

CCA

Crops

PCA

NonLinier

Ensemble

Statistical Downscaling

AOGCM Dynamical

Plantation

High Res. Weather & Climate Forecasts

Fishery

Energy & Industry

RCM

Hidromet. Disaster Management

Downscaling

Numerical/Dynamical Models

Tourism

BMG

Spatial Planning

Statistical Models AR Multiregr.

Water resources

EOF ANFIS

Filter Wave- Kalman

let

CCA

Crops

PCA

NonLinier

Ensemble

Statistical Downscaling

AOGCM Dynamical

Plantation

High Res. Weather & Climate Forecasts

Fishery

Energy & Industry

RCM

CCAM

Hidromet. Disaster Management

Downscaling

Numerical/Dynamical Models

Tourism

BMG

Overview General introduction to CCAM

It includes: ƒ The Conformal Cubic grid ƒ Using the Schmidt transform for regional forecasting ƒ Multiple nesting techniques for downscaling ƒ Topography and land-use datasets

A more detailed discussion of using CCAM for NWP and climate applications will be given in subsequent presentations

CMAR Introduction

Regional climate modelling at BMG (& LAPAN) Used DARLAM for most of 90s ƒ 1-way nested limited-area model

For last few years using the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (C-CAM), a variable-resolution global model ƒ avoids boundary reflections ƒ avoids difficulties should forcing model and driven model have different inherent cold or moist biases ƒ can enforce conservation in a proper manner

CMAR Introduction

CCAM technical notes CCAM employs a Conformal-Cubic grid Typically each face contains 48x48 grid points (i.e., a C48 grid) and 18 vertical sigma levels (total points = 48x48x6x18)

Devised by Rancic et al., QJRMS 1996 CMAR Introduction

Sigma levels

CMAR Introduction

Gnomonic-cubic grid and panels Sadourny (MWR, 1972) Semi-Lagrangian advection study by McGregor (A-O, 1996)

CMAR Introduction

CMAR Introduction

The Conformal-Cubic grid

The Conformal-Cubic (CC) grid provides CCAM with a number of advantages, including: ƒ No singular points (e.g., the north or south pole). ƒ No hard boundaries – CCAM is a global model. ƒ The grid can be stretched for high resolution forecasts (e.g., 1km). ƒ The stretched grid can be repositioned anywhere in the world.

CMAR Introduction

CCAM features ƒ 2-time-level semi-implicit hydrostatic (recently, also non-hydrostatic) ƒ semi-Lagrangian horizontal advection with bi-cubic spatial interpolation ƒ total variation diminishing (TVD) vertical advection ƒ unstaggered grid, with winds transformed to/from C-staggered positions ƒ before/after gravity wave calculations using reversible interpolation ƒ minimal horizontal diffusion needed: ƒ Smagorinsky style; zero is fine ƒ Cartesian representation of all awkward terms: ƒ calculation of departure points (McGregor, 1996, MWR) ƒ advection or diffusion of vector quantities ƒ indirect addressing keeps code simple ƒ weak off-centering (in time) used to avoid semi-Lagrangian "mountain resonances“ ƒ careful treatment of surface pressure and pressure-gradient terms near terrain ƒ a posteriori conservation of mass and moisture ƒ grid is isotropic

CMAR Introduction

CCAM physical parameterizations ƒ cumulus convection: ƒ new CSIRO mass-flux scheme, including downdrafts ƒ evaporation of rainfall ƒ GFDL parameterization for long and short wave radiation ƒ interactive cloud distributions ƒ derived prognostically from liquid water ƒ gravity-wave drag scheme ƒ stability-dependent boundary layer and vertical mixing with non-local option ƒ vegetation/canopy scheme ƒ 6 layers for soil temperatures ƒ 6 layers for soil moisture (Richard's equation) ƒ option for cumulus mixing of trace gases

CMAR Introduction

CCAM technical description

CMAR Introduction

CCAM technical notes

200km

Schmidt = 1. A uniform C48 grid. Note the (approx) uniform 200km grid spacing. CMAR Introduction

CCAM technical notes

750km

60km Schmidt = 3.33 The CCAM grid can be stretched (using a Schmidt transformation) to also provide a regional forecast. CMAR Introduction

CMAR Introduction

The Conformal-Cubic grid The ability to stretch the grid is crucial for generating high resolution forecasts (e.g., 1km). For example, to model the whole world for 1 day we would need: ƒ At 200km

C48 grid

155Mb

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