SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 2: December 2013, Pp.605-621

“Demographic Transition Model: Evidence from West Bengal State” Subrata Ghosh*

Abstract: Demographic transition is now becoming universal phenomenon as immigration from less developed to developed countries creating worldwide population explosion. As modernisation proceeds, population growth rate changes from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. Most of this dramatic transition has occurred over the last 150 years. This article summarizes the demographic dynamics of West Bengal from the beginning of 20th century. The paper aims at checking at which stage of transition model West Bengal is now and where it is approaching. The paper contains information from several sources for discussing the recent demographic progress in the state and covers a variety of demographic aspects

such as

population, fertility, mortality, gender issues, projections of population, vital rates etc. based on data from Census of India, SRS,NSSO and CSO. This paper can provide an important framework for the advocacy and operationalisation of state population policies. There is need to prioritize the concern and focus on the policy option at the state level.

Key words: Demographic Transition, Population, West Bengal

*Subrata Ghosh, Assistant Professor, Department of Business Administration, Siliguri Institute of Technology, India, email : [email protected], M : +91(0) 9832054174.

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Size and Growth of Population Growth Trend: An Introduction As far as the size of population is concerned, West Bengal ranks fourth in the country just after the states Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar. Besides being the fourth most populous state of the country, West Bengal is said to have occupied the ninth position in respect of world population. With a total area of 88,853 sq.km, West Bengal occupies 2.77 percent of India‟s land area, and accommodates 7.55 percent of country‟s and 1.3 percent world‟s population in 2011. West Bengal, with 1029 persons per square kilometer, has emerged as the highest density of population in India which is also higher than national average 382 per sq km. This indicates that the pressure of population on the land in this state is very high. The actual pressure of population upon West Bengal may be higher than what is estimated from Census. West Bengal‟s population as per Census 2011 was 9,13,47,736 which is an increase from 8,01,76,197 in 2001 census. The total population growth in this decade was 13.93 percent while in previous decade it was 17.77 percent. It is estimated to have risen to 9,99,88,000 in 2025.According to the census of 1911, the population of the state was 1,79,98,769 since then, a period of 100 years, and the population of the state has increased by 9,13,47,736 that is an increase of 407.52 percent. This unprecedented rate of population growth in West Bengal has been caused due to the drastic decline in mortality without decline in fertility after 1950. The ultimate solution to the growing population therefore, lies in the control of family size. In the context of economic growth, it is really an alarming situation. Though WB is a state of India, its population can be compared to any country‟s population and its population is almost similar to Philippines (93.6 crore) .Hence, we may also consider it as a separate nation in that sense. Therefore, Demographic transition theory can be applied here to identify at which stage the state is now and where is approaching. It is high time for the West Bengal government to adopt proactive policy rather than a reactive policy to this issue. Time has come to deal with it assertively.

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SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 2: December 2013, Pp.605-621

The Demographic Transition Theory With the passage of time, as literacy rate increases country moves from traditional, nonindustrial to a modern, industrial and urban society , and ,thereby, family size gradually decreases. This demographic transition has become a universal phenomenon in which every country may be placed on a scale of progress. Most of this dramatic change has occurred over the last 150 years. It is the

human race to control family size and to maximize survival. The

demographic transition is the change in the human condition from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility. The demographic transition theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed by the American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929 but later in 1945, Frank W. Notestein, Blacker and others developed this theory by describing the various stages of population growth based on birth and death rates. This is typically demonstrated through a model called demographic transition model (DTM). The model is used to represent the transition from a pre-modern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a post-modern regime of low fertility and low mortality. It explains how population growth rates change over time as modernisation proceeds. The theory states that every country passes through mainly three stages of demographic transition and the stages can be are empirically tested or verified. Despite the model has got many weaknesses

but it is simple to

understand, dynamic and changes over time, so can be adjusted for future changes. The model is described below.

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Source: www.coolgeography.co.uk

In the first stage, high birth rate is matched by an equally high death rate. Hence the population remains more or less stable over a long period of time. Here, birth rate is high due to lack of family planning ,high Infant Mortality Rate(IMR), need for workers in agriculture , old religious beliefs etc. and death rate is high due to disease, lack of clean water and sanitation ,lack of health care facility , limited food supply, lack of education. In the second stage, there is substantial reduction in the death rate without a corresponding fall in the birth rate and consequently, the rate of population growth remains high and creates population explosion in the country. Here, death rate decreases due to improved hygiene, improved sanitation, improved food production and storage, improved transport for food and birth rate remains high as because people are used

Ghosh

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SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 2: December 2013, Pp.605-621 to having many children and taking time for culture to change. But the third stage is characterized by low population growth rate as birth rate declines significantly. In this stage birth rate decreases due to improvements in contraceptive technology, changes in values about children and sex, rising costs of dependent children to a family, less time of working women for child rearing etc and death rate low due to better health Care, vaccinations, better knowledge of diseases, pre-natal care, improved sanitation, improved quality and quantity of food. Once country reaches at this stage, the critical phase of population explosion is over. During stage four birth and death rates are both low and therefore the total population increases slowly

and

remains stable. Here, birth rate low due to family planning, good health, improved status of women , late marriages etc. The above model originally had four stages but fifth stage has been added as per UK‟s recent data on demography.

Some Evidences of DTM In developed countries this transition began in the eighteenth century and still continues today. Europe passed through stage two before the advances of the mid-20th century. Today there are no countries in the first Stage, the majority of developing as well as less developed countries either are in second stage or third stage of the model. Scholarly articles found that countries like Bhutan, Yemen, Palestine, Laos and much of Sub-Saharan Africa are in the second stage whereas Countries like China, South Korea, Singapore, and Cuba are speedily approaching to third Stage. Few countries such as China, Brazil and Thailand have passed through the DTM very quickly due to rapid social and economic change. South Africa, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, Namibia, Kenya and Ghana have moved into third stage. Most developed countries are already in stage four of the model. Some countries like Cuba, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Italy, Portugal, Spain, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and more specifically Japan, whose populations are now well below their replacement levels. If we look at India‟s population from the census 1901 to 2001 its demographic position was in the second stage but census 2011 showed that today India is in the third stage of the model. Still population is growing but demographers anticipated that this growth will begin to slow down very soon. Since the beginning of twentieth century and more particularly after independence same picture is visualised in West Bengal due to change in social, demographic and economic factors, which lead to fall the state in the third stage of the model. Ghosh

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SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 2: December 2013, Pp.605-621 Table 1.1 Population in West Bengal (1901-2011) Census Year

Actual Population

Population

(In crores)

Increase in Population (In the previous decade) (In crores)

Decennial population growth (in percent)

1901

16940088

169.4

-

-

1911

17998769

180

10.6

6.25

1921

17474349

174.7

-5.3

-2.91

1931

18897036

189

14.3

8.14

1941

23229552

232.3

43.3

22.93

1951

26299980

263

30.7

13.22

1961

34926279

349.3

86.3

32.8

1971

44312011

443.1

93.8

26.87

1981

54580647

545.8

102.7

23.17

1991

68077965

680.8

135

24.73

2001

80176197

801.8

121

17.77

2011

91347736

913.5

111.7

13.93

Source:

Density of population(per sq. km.)

193 205 199 215 264 299 394 504 615 767 903 1029

Census of India, 1901-2011

Every year the Registrar General of India conducts sample surveys, and estimates the annual rates of birth and death. According to 1901 census, the size of population was 1,69,40,088.Since then there has been a rapid increase in the population till 1961 but an exception occurred in census 1921 where population growth rate became -2.91 percent. From the above table it is evident that there was a big jump from 1951 to 1961 where population growth rate increased to 32.8 in 1961 from 13.22 percent in 1951. After 1961, population growth rate of West Bengal Ghosh

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SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 2: December 2013, Pp.605-621 started slowing down. The population growth rate declined from 26.87 percent in 1961-71 to 23.17 percent in 1971-81. This is probably due to expansion of education, family planning programme and rise in social consciousness. The 1991 Census puts the decadal growth rate at 24.73 percent which is higher than that in 1971-81. The rate of growth of population of the State during 1961 to 1971 was 26.87 percent, which came down to 17.77 per cent during 2001. West Bengal recorded sharp decline in growth rate of population during 1981-91 and 1991-2001. It is also noted that the population in West Bengal has been steadily increasing during the last five decades after Independence. During 1971-2001, West Bengal has accommodated more than 4 million outsiders among them nearly 3 million Bengali-speaking Hindus entered from Bangladesh alone. (Source: Statistical Abstract, West Bengal, 1978-89 (Combined Issue), Bureau of Applied Economics and Statistics). The census of 1991 has shown that the decennial rate of population growth remained as high as 24.73 percent during the 1980s. The increase in population in the state is also reflected in the density of population which increased from 504 in 1971 to 903 per sq. km. in 2001. In 2001, West Bengal was the most populated State in the country. During the last 100 years, i.e. from 1911 to 2011 density of population has increased from 205 to 1029 per sq. km respectively. This should be a matter of serious concern for our planners and policy–makers.

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Table.1.2

Projected Total Population by Sex as on 1st March, 2001-2026 (000’) Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Male 41466 42009 42523 43013 43486 43947 44394 44820 45234 45640 46045 46445 46836 47223 47623 48012 48390 48762 49129 49491 49847 50173 50488 50786 51061 51307

Female 38710 39269 39798 40303 40791 41268 41731 42174 42605 43029 43454 43874 44287 44697 45112 48012 48390 46347 46746 47142 47537 47902 48259 48602 48927 49226

Total 80176 81278 82321 83316 84277 85215 86125 86994 87839 88669 89499 90319 91123 91920 92735 96024 96780 95109 95875 96633 97384 98075 98747 99388 99988 100533

Source: Population Projection for India & States 2001-2026, Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, May 2006

Registrar general„s population projections for West Bengal in 2011 was 8, 94, 99,000 but it actually turned out to 9, 13, 47,736 as recorded in the census 2011. Projection for 2021 is 9.74 crores meaning that population will be growing but at a slower rate. Considering this trend, it has been projected that during 2025- 2026 total population of West Bengal would cross ten crores but this growth rate would decline to 9.53 percent as compared to 2001 census. West Ghosh

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SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 2: December 2013, Pp.605-621 Bengal‟s population projections given above shows that soon the rate of population growth will decline and the state would be on peak point of the third stage of demographic transition model. Table.1.3 Vital statistics rates, West Bengal, 1901-2011

1901-11

38

38

Natural Growth Rate 0

1911-21

50

-17

NA

33

1921-31

42

-13

NA

29

1931-41

28

NA

28

NA

1941-51

NA

NA

NA

NA

1951-61

42.9

20.5

22.4

95

1971

19

NA

NA

62

1981

33.2

11

22.2

91

1982

32.3

10.4

21.9

86

1983

32

10.3

21.7

84

1984

30.4

10.7

19.7

82

1985

29.4

9.6

19.8

74

1986

29.7

8.8

20.9

71

1987

30.7

8.8

21.9

71

1988

28.4

8.4

20

69

1989

29.2

8.8

20.4

77

1990

28.2

8.4

19.8

63

Year

CBR

CDR

Ghosh

IMR NA

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SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 2: December 2013, Pp.605-621

1991

27

8.3

18.7

71

1992

24.8

8.4

16.4

65

1993

25.7

7.4

18.3

58

1994

25.2

8.3

16.9

62

1995

23.6

7.9

15.7

58

1996

22.8

7.8

15

55

1997

22.4

7.7

14.7

55

1998

21.3

7.5

13.8

53

1999

20.7

7.1

13.6

52

2000

20.7

7

13.7

51

2001

20.6

7

13.6

51

2002

20.5

6.7

13.8

49

2003

20.3

6.6

13.7

46

2004

19.3

6.3

13

40

2005

18.8

6.4

12.4

38

2006

18.4

6.2

12.2

38

2007

17.9

6.3

11.6

37

2008

17.5

6.2

11.3

35

2009

17.2

6.2

11

33

2010

16.8

6

10.8

31

2011 Source

: Office of the Registrar General of India, Ministry of Home affairs, 2001, Govt. of West Bengal West Bengal Human Development Report,2004 (WBHDR),1990-2001, Economic Review, various issue, 266, 2006 Sample Registration Survey Reports by the Registrar General of India, 1951-2011, Sample Registration System 1981-2008, *NA=DATA NOT AVAILABLE The above table shows that during the first decade of 20th century, the estimated birth rate as well as death rate for West Bengal was equal but quite high and natural growth rate remained more or less stable. Thereafter, birth rate started falling slowly but death rate was rising and it continued Ghosh

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SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 2: December 2013, Pp.605-621 till 1921-31(as per data available). More particularly during 1951-61, birth rate was highest i,e. 42.9 and thereafter it declined slightly but death rate relatively falling sharply. From 1901-11 to 1951-61, birth rate increased by only about 5 points, that is from 38 to 42.9 and death rate declined from 38 to 20.5 per thousand population. During 1981, birth rate declined to 33.2 and death rate declined to 11 per thousand populations and the estimated natural population increase in West Bengal stood at 22.2 percent. The crude birth rate(CBR) in West Bengal declined from 22.4 to 17.5 between 1997 and 2008 (or by 28 per cent) but during the same period, crude death rate(CDR) declined from 7.7 to 6.2 and estimated natural population growth rate stood at 11.3 percent. It is a positive signal for population control in WB. The table here is all based on SRS and census data showing that the demographic transition in West Bengal has proceeded more rapidly than India as a whole, and in a positive direction. In terms of both crude birth rates and crude death rates, the improvement has been significantly greater than for India as a whole, even though the State already had lower rates than the Indian average. One of the major reasons for the decrease in death rates is the decline in infant mortality rates (IMRs) in the State. Soon after the independence, IMR started showing declining and it continues today also. IMR of WB declined to 71 in 1991 from that of 95 during the year 1951-61 and it further declined to 31 in 2010.This improvement in IMR may be due to expansion of education, family planning programs, vaccinations, better knowledge of diseases, pre-natal care, rise in social consciousness, improved sanitation, improved quality and quantity of food etc.

Table.1.4

Demographic framework West Bengal 1901-2011 Period

Crude

Crude Death

Birth Rate

Rate

High birth rate 1901-1911

Equal high death rate

Ghosh

Rates of Natural

Infant Mortality

increase more or less stable over a long period of time

Rate Not recorded

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Very high 1951-1971 high

high death rate but falls rapidly moderate

Very rapid increase high

1971-1991

1991-2011

Moderate to low

Moderate to low

Moderate to low

Very High but Falling High but sharply Falling Slightly High but Falling

Source: Statistics from Table 1.3 The demographic transition, as explained below, has occurred in various phases in West Bengal.

1. Pre-early Phase: 1901-1951 (Tables 1.3 and 1.4) During 1901-11, West Bengal had

equal birth rate and death rate and as a result natural

population growth rate remained more or less stable. But during second census death rate increased from 38 to 50 and birth rate decreased from 38 to 33 per thousand populations which caused negative natural growth rate. During 1921-31, birth rate was falling death rate was falling very sharply which

very slowly but

resulted into an imbalance in natural growth rate.

More specifically, during the first five decades of twentieth century, population has increased by 55.25 percent but decennial growth rate reached at 13.22 percent. It can be considered as preearly phase of transition.

2. Early Phase : 1951-1961 (Tables 1.3 and 1.4) Since Independence, West Bengal has been going through a social and economic transformation. The state experienced high CBR and high CDR for the period 1951-61 that resulted into a very high natural growth rate. During that period CBR was 42.9 while the CDR was 20.5 resulting into a very high rate of natural increase i.e. 22.4 percent and IMR was very high i.e. 95. The IMR was very high but falling during that period. Although CBR and IMR were high, yet the very high decennial population growth rates caused the total population to increase from 1,79,98,769 in 1901-11 to 3,49,26,279 in 1951-61.

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3. Moderate Phase : 1971-1991 (Tables 1.3 and 1.4) During that period, the high CBR and moderate CDR resulted into a high natural growth rate i.e. 18.7 which caused the total population to continue increase from 4, 43,12,011 6,80,77,965 in 1991. The above table also shows that West Bengal

in 1971 to

experienced a high but

falling IMR, reaching 71 in 1991 and continues to fall slowly.

4. Full Phase : 1991-2010(Tables 1.3 and 1.4) In this period, West Bengal experienced a moderate to low CBR and also a moderate to low CDR. CBR and CDR fell from 27and 8.3 in 1991 to 16.8 and 6 respectively in 2010. The fall in both CBR and CDR caused relatively slower rate of population growth and decennial growth rate

reached at 13.9 percent in 2011 as shown in table1.4. Recent data from the office of the

Registrar-General of India show that West Bengal is now one of the best-performing States in the country in terms of the most basic health indicators. During this period, IMR was although slightly high but fell from 71 in 1991 to 31 in 2010 and natural growth rate has come down at 10.8 from 18.7 in the subsequent years.

Projected CBR, CDR and Projected Natural Growth Rate 1st March, 2001-2026

2001-2005 2006-2010

2011-2015

2016-2020

2021-2025

18.8

16.6

15.9

15.3

14.1

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.9

7.3

12.6

10.2

9.3

8.4

6.8

Projected CBR

Projected CDR Projected Natural Growth Rate

Source: Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, May 2006, National Commission on population, MOHFW, Projected Natural Growth Rate is estimated by author.

The above table shows that actual CBR and actual CDR of the state

were almost same as the

projected CBR and CDR during the year 2005. During the year 2010, actual CBR and CDR was 16.8 and 6.0 respectively whereas the projected CBR and CDR during the same year was 16.6 Ghosh

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SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 2: December 2013, Pp.605-621 and 6.4 respectively. It proves that projection of the demographers is going at the right direction. If it continues in the same way, during 2021-2025, CBR and CDR of West Bengal will reach at 14.1 and 7.3 respectively and natural population growth rate would come down at 6.8 and this will lead to a demographic balance and considerable social as well as political stability in the state. This improvement will occur only when progress in the health sector will be made available for rural as well as urban people.

Conclusion: West Bengal was in Stage I till 1961, with very high birth and very high death rates. This higher birth rate led the state to very high population growth. During the period 1971-1991, death rates fell faster than birth rates which resulted in rapid population growth and state reached at stage II. Since the 1990s, there has been a noticeable decrease in birth rates together with a decrease in death rates, led the state in stage III. This may be due to improvement in both IMR and MMR. Demographers anticipated that during 2021-2025, CBR and CDR of West Bengal will reach at 14.1 and 7.3 respectively and natural population growth rate would come down at 6.8 and this will lead to a demographic balance and considerable social as well as political stability in West Bengal.

References/ Footnotes/ Sources: Anandabazar Patrika, Bengali daily, Calcutta, 8 March 1995 Bangladesh Population Census 1991, Vol. 2, December, 1993; and Report of the Task Force on Bangladesh: Development Strategies for the 1990‟s, Vol. 1, University Press Ltd., Dhaka, 1991, p. 20. Carole R. McCann, Malthusian Men and Demographic Transitions: A Case Study of Hegemonic Masculinity in Mid-Twentieth-Century Population Theory, A Journal of Women Studies, Volume 30, pp. 142-171 , Number 1, 2009 Census of India, 1981, Series 23, social and cultural tables, West Bengal, Part- IV A Economic Review, (1971-72). West Bengal. Economic Review, various issue, 266, 2006 Mohiuddin Ahmed, “The Missing Population”, Holiday, Weekly, Dhaka, 7 January 1994.

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SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 2: December 2013, Pp.605-621 Office of the Registrar General of India, Ministry of Home affairs, 2001. Population Projection for India & States 1996-2016 - Registrar General India Population Projection for India & States 2001-2026, Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, May 2006. Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections, May 2006, National Commission on population, MOHFW. Statistical Abstract, West Bengal, 1978-89 (Combined Issue), Bureau of Applied

Economics

and Statistics. Sample Registration System 1981-2008. Sample Registration Survey Reports by the

Registrar General of India, 1951-2011

Sample Registration Survey Reports (SRS, Bulletin-1981-2004) by the Registrar General of India, New Delhi. Sample Registration Survey (SRS, Bulletin-1981-2004) by the Registrar General of India, New Delhiigure 1.2: Birth and Death Rates of West Bengal, 1981-2004. Websites http://sociology.about.com/od/D_Index/g/Demographic-Transition.htm http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/fro/summary/v030/30.1.mccann.html http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11618374 http://geography.about.com/od/culturalgeography/a/demotransition.htm http://www.jstor.org/discover http://www.voiceofdharma.org/books/tfst/appii1.htm http://ncw.nic.in/pdfreports/Gender%20Profile-West%20Bengal.pdf http://www.springer.com/social+sciences/population+studies/book/978-1-4020-4373-4 http://ncw.nic.in/pdfreports/Gender%20Profile-West%20Bengal.pdf

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SIT Journal of Management Vol. 3. No. 2: December 2013, Pp.605-621 http://books.google.co.in/books http://www.census2011.co.in/census/state/west+bengal.html http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/article994271 http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070515222837AACdpgw http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic..... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_malt www.westbengalstat.com/health/16/vitalstatistics/291/stats.aspx www.coolgeography.co.uk

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