Demographic and Socio-economic Trends in Boston: What we’ve learned from the latest Census data
Mark Melnik, Deputy Director for Research Boston Redevelopment Authority November 29, 2011
Outline of Presentation • Selected demographic trends • Growth • Diversity • Youth • Education • Selected socio-economic trends • Historic employment and unemployment trends • Educational attainment of labor force • Labor force characteristics
2
Boston is Growing
3
Historic Trends – Boston’s Population • Boston reached its population peak in 1950 • Boston’s population, like many major cities, declined after 1950 • In recent decades, Boston’s population has grown • The 2010 Census marks the first time since 1970 that Boston’s population has been over 600,000 850,000 800,000
801,444
750,000
697,197
700,000
641,071
650,000
617,594
574,283
600,000 550,000
562,994
589,141
500,000 450,000 400,000 1950
1960
Source: US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010 4
Major Northeastern Cities and Population Change, 2010 Census • Boston’s population growth since 2000 compares favorably to most other northeastern cities Popula8on Change Total Popula8on City 2000-‐2010 2000 2010 N % Washington (DC) Worcester (MA) Boston (MA) Cambridge (MA) Elizabeth (NJ) HarJord (CT) Providence (RI) New York (NY) Newark (NJ) Springfield (MA) Philadelphia (PA) BalWmore (MD) PiYsburgh (PA) Buffalo (NY)
Source: US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
572,059 601,723 172,648 181,045 589,141 617,594 101,355 105,162 120,568 124,969 121,578 124,775 173,618 178,042 8,008,278 8,175,133 273,546 277,140 152,082 153,060 1,517,550 1,526,006 651,154 620,961 334,563 305,704 292,648 261,310
29,664 8,397 28,453 3,807 4,401 3,197 4,424 166,855 3,594 978 8,456 -‐30,193 -‐28,859 -‐31,338
5.2% 4.9% 4.8% 3.8% 3.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% -‐4.6% -‐8.6% -‐10.7%
5
20 Largest US Cities and Population Change, 2010 Census • Boston’s population growth rate since 2000 was higher than the rates for New York and San Francisco • Four of the 20 largest cities experienced population declines between 2000 and 2010 City
Total Popula8on 2000 2010
Popula8on Change 2000-‐2010 N %
Fort Worth (TX) CharloYe (NC) AusWn (TX) San Antonio (TX) El Paso (TX) Jacksonville (FL) Columbus (OH) Nashville (TN) Phoenix (AZ) SeaYle (WA) Houston (TX) San Diego (CA) San Jose (CA) Washington (DC) Indianapolis (IN)
534,694 540,828 656,562 1,144,646 563,662 735,617 711,470 545,524 1,321,045 563,374 1,953,631 1,223,400 894,943 572,059 781,870
741,206 731,424 790,390 1,327,407 649,121 821,784 787,033 601,222 1,445,632 608,660 2,099,451 1,307,402 945,942 601,723 820,445
206,512 190,596 133,828 182,761 85,459 86,167 75,563 55,698 124,587 45,286 145,820 84,002 50,999 29,664 38,575
38.6% 35.2% 20.4% 16.0% 15.2% 11.7% 10.6% 10.2% 9.4% 8.0% 7.5% 6.9% 5.7% 5.2% 4.9%
Boston (MA)
589,141
617,594
28,453
4.8%
San Francisco (CA) Los Angeles (CA) New York City (NY) Dallas (TX)
776,733 3,694,820 8,008,278 1,188,580
805,235 3,792,621 8,175,133 1,197,816
28,502 97,801 166,855 9,236
3.7% 2.6% 2.1% 0.8%
Source: US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
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Housing Units and Average Household Size • Boston’s housing stock has grown consistently over the last 40 years • Boston’s housing stock grew 8.2% since 2000 280,000 270,000 260,000 250,000 240,000 230,000 220,000 210,000 200,000
272,481 250,863251,935 241,304 238,695 232,401 222,079 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2.40
2.37
2.31
2.26
1980
1990
2000
2010
3.5 3
3.39 2.95
2.5
2.77
2 1950
1960
1970
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
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Boston is Diverse
8
Racial and Ethnic Breakdown for Boston’s Population, 1980-2010 • Over the last several decades, the racial and ethnic composition of Boston has changed a great deal • In 1980, close to 70% of Boston was white. Today, only half the city is white. • The last two Census reports show Boston as a “majority-minority” city
1990
1980 6%
1%
3%
0% 5%
1%
11%
22% 68%
24%
59%
2000
2010
3% 8% 1% 0%
9%
2% 2%
0%
14% 50%
18% 47%
24%
22%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis. Note: 2000 was the first year the Census compiled data on individuals who identified themselves as “multiracial”
9
Proportion of the Population that is Foreign-Born, 1850-2009 • Historically, Boston has had a greater proportion of foreign-born residents than both the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and the nation as a whole • Since the 1970s, the proportion of foreign-born residents in Boston has grown dramatically
40%
Boston
35%
Massachusetts
30%
United States
25% 20% 15% 10% 5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, BRA Research Division Analysis
2009
2006
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
0%
10
Countries of Origin for Boston’s Foreign-Born Population, 2010 • Most of Boston’s immigrants today come from the Caribbean, Latin America, and Asia • This plays a major factor in “majority-minority” Haiti
10.2%
China
8.9% 8.3%
Dominican Republic Vietnam
4.2%
El Salvador
4.2%
Jamaica
4.2%
Colombia
3.3%
Ireland
3.3% 3.1%
Brazil
2.5%
Trinidad & Tobago 0.0%
2.0%
Source: 2010 American Community Survey , BRA Research Division Analysis.
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0% 11
25 Largest US Cities by Foreign Born Population • Boston ranks 6th among the 25 largest cities in the US in proportion of the population that is foreign-born
Foreign % Foreign Born Rank Born 1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Source: 2010 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
City
39.1% 38.6% 37.2% 35.5% 28.7%
Los Angeles, CA San Jose, CA New York, NY San Francisco, CA Houston, TX
26.1% 25.3% 24.6% 20.7% 20.0% 18.7% 17.2% 16.9% 14.4% 14.4% 13.5% 11.6% 11.0% 10.9% 9.4% 9.0% 7.1% 6.2% 4.8%
San Diego, CA Dallas, TX El Paso, TX Chicago, IL Phoenix, AZ AusWn, TX SeaYle, WA Fort Worth, TX San Antonio, TX CharloYe, NC Washington, DC Philadelphia, PA Columbus, OH Nashville, TN Jacksonville, FL Indianapolis, IN BalWmore, MD Memphis, TN Detroit, MI
26.9% Boston, MA
Popula8on Rank 2 10 1 13 4
22 8 9 19 3 6 14 23 16 7 17 24 5 15 25 11 12 21 20 18
12
Planning District Diversity Index: 2000-2010 • Most of Boston’s planning districts are more diverse today than in 2000 Back Bay/ South Beacon Boston
North Dorchest 0.80 er 0.70 0.60
South Dorchest er Harbor Islands
2010
2000
0.50
Mattapan
Boston
0.40 0.30 0.20
Charlesto wn
South End
0.10 0.00
West Roxbury
Roslindal e Hyde Park
Central Allston/ Brighton Feneway/ Kenmore Source: US Census 2010, BRA Research Division Analysis
Jamaica Plain Roxbury East Boston
13
Linguistic Isolation
In 2010, 12.4% of households in Boston were without a resident 14 years or older that spoke English very well; this was an increase from 10.7% of households in 2000
The rise in linguistically isolated Spanish households reflects the high growth rate of foreign-born Hispanic households between 2000 and 2010 60.0% 48.3% 50.0% 43.1% 38.5% 40.0% 30.5% 27.7% 27.8% 30.0% 20.6% 19.8% 20.0%
10.0% 0.0% Spanish households
Other IndoEuropean languages households 2000
Asian and Pacific Island languages households
Other languages
2010
Source: 2000 US Census Summary File 3 and2010 American Community Survey BRA Research Division Analysis
14
English Proficiency
An estimated 8.5% of Bostonians had limited English proficiency in 2009; this increased about 0.8% from the same statistic in 2000.
A higher percentage of foreign born residents have Limited English proficiency in 2009 than in 2000 2000 2009 7.7% 8.5%
92.3%
91.5%
English Proficient
English Proficient
Limited English Proficiency
Limited English Proficiency
Source: 2000 Census Public Use Microdata Sample and 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample BRA Research Division Analysis
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Boston is Young
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Breakdown of Boston’s Population by Age • Boston is a young city; currently it has the highest concentration of young adults (20-34) among 15 of the largest cities in the US
20 to 34-‐Year-‐ % of Total Olds Popula8on Boston 216,213 35.0% AusWn 251,064 31.8% Washington DC 188,855 31.4% Atlanta 127,101 30.3% SeaYle 181,501 29.8% San Francisco 228,738 28.4% Chicago 738,578 27.4% Dallas 314,728 26.3% Houston 545,071 26.0% BalWmore 160,024 25.8% Philadelphia 392,776 25.7% Los Angeles 953,443 25.1% New York 2,035,030 24.9% San Antonio 304,784 23.0% Phoenix 330,885 22.9% City
Source: 2010 Census, BRA Research Division Analysis
Loca8on Quo8ent 1.73 1.57 1.55 1.49 1.47 1.40 1.35 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.24 1.23 1.13 1.13 17
Boston is Educated
18
Educational Attainment of Population, 2000 and 2010 • Boston has one of the most highly-educated populations among major American cities. According to the 2010 American Community Survey, 44.3% of Boston’s adult population has at least a bachelor’s degree, ranking Boston 4th amongst the 25 largest cities in the nation. 30.0% 25.0%
120,000
21.1%
20.0% 15.0%
24.5%
23.8% 24.0%
19.8%
19.4% 17.7%
14.2%
100,000
20.2% 15.3%
80,000 60,000
10.0%
40,000
5.0%
20,000
0.0%
Less than high school diploma 2000
High school graduate (includes equivalency) 2010
Some college or associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
% of 2000 Population
Source: 2000 Census Summary File 3, 2010 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
Graduate or professional degree % of 2010 Population 19
Educational Attainment of 25 Largest US Cities by Bachelor’s Degree or Greater (25 years and older) Rank
City
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate or Professional Degree
Bachelor's or greater
1
SeaYle city, Washington
33.1%
22.9%
56.0%
2
San Francisco city, California
31.4%
19.5%
50.9%
3
Washington city, District of Columbia
23.2%
26.9%
50.1%
4
Boston city, MassachuseUs
24.5%
19.8%
44.3%
5
AusWn city, Texas
27.5%
16.1%
43.6%
6
San Diego city, California
24.1%
16.3%
40.4%
7
CharloYe city, North Carolina
25.9%
12.8%
38.7%
8
San Jose city, California
23.2%
13.4%
36.6%
9
Nashville-‐Davidson (balance), Tennessee
20.0%
13.6%
33.6%
10
Chicago city, Illinois
20.2%
13.2%
33.4%
11
New York city, New York
19.9%
13.4%
33.3%
12
Columbus city, Ohio
21.3%
10.4%
31.7%
13
Los Angeles city, California
20.4%
10.3%
30.7%
14
Dallas city, Texas
18.5%
10.4%
28.9%
15
Houston city, Texas
17.4%
11.0%
28.4%
16
Indianapolis city (balance), Indiana
17.6%
9.0%
26.6%
17
Fort Worth city, Texas
18.5%
7.5%
26.0%
18
Phoenix city, Arizona
16.6%
8.3%
24.9%
19
BalWmore city, Maryland
13.2%
11.0%
24.2%
20
Jacksonville city, Florida
17.0%
6.9%
23.9%
21
San Antonio city, Texas
15.0%
8.8%
23.8%
22
Memphis city, Tennessee
14.5%
8.4%
22.9%
23
Philadelphia city, Pennsylvania
12.8%
9.8%
22.6%
24
El Paso city, Texas
14.2%
7.3%
21.5%
25
Detroit city, Michigan
7.0%
4.9%
11.9%
Source: 2010 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
20
Socio-economic Characteristics
21
Historic Unemployment Trend:1979-2010 • Boston’s unemployment rate is typically lower than national and state rates • As of January 2011, Boston’s unemployment rate was 7.8; two points lower than the national average 12.0 United States
Massachusetts
10.0
Boston
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0.0
Source: Bureau Labor of Statistics and MA Division of Employment and Training (DET)
22
Household Income
The distribution of income in Boston is more polarized than in 2000.
The share of middle income households is getting smaller, while the share of low income and high income households increased.
Household Income 2000 Loca8on (1999 Infla8on-‐Adjusted Es8mate Percent Quo8ent Dollars)
Household Income 2010 ACS Loca8on (2009 Infla8on-‐Adjusted Es8mate Percent Quo8ent Dollars)
Less than $10,000
37,230 15.5%
1.63
Less than $10,000
38,718 15.4%
2.08
$10,000 to $14,999
15,764 6.6%
1.04
$10,000 to $14,999
15,509
6.2%
1.11
$15,000 to $24,999
27,276 11.4%
0.89
$15,000 to $24,999
23,974
9.5%
0.88
$25,000 to $34,999
27,496 11.5%
0.90
$25,000 to $34,999
20,198
8.0%
0.75
$35,000 to $49,999
35,928 15.0%
0.91
$35,000 to $49,999
27,593 11.0%
0.77
$50,000 to $74,999
41,496 17.3%
0.89
$50,000 to $74,999
39,015 15.5%
0.83
$75,000 to $99,999
23,784 9.9%
0.97
$75,000 to $99,999
25,057 10.0%
0.81
$100,000 to $149,999
18,496 7.7%
1.00
$100,000 to $149,999
31,559 12.5%
1.03
$150,000 to $199,999
5,491
2.3%
1.04
$150,000 to $199,999
13,485
5.4%
1.29
$200,000 or more
6,642
2.8%
1.17
$200,000 or more
16,613
6.6%
1.65
Source: 2000 Census Summary File 3, 2010 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis .
23
Employment
Boston’s labor force grew by 18.5% from 2000 to 2010
Recessions in 2001 and 2008 has lead to the unemployed population in Boston to more than double in size since 2000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000
365,182 100% 308,107, 100%
318,250 87.1% 285,859 92.8%
200,000 150,000 46,932 12.9% 22,248 7.2%
100,000 50,000 Civilian labor force
Employed 2010
Unemployed
2000
Source: 2000 Census Summary File 3 and 2010 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau, BRA Research Division Analysis
24
Labor Force Characteristics
A greater percent of non-white residents are unemployed than white residents
Unemployment appears to be particularly high among African-Americans in the city
70.0% 60.0%
Employment Status by Race 59.0%
50.0% 40.0%
35.7%
30.0%
32.1% 20.2% 13.9%
20.0%
17.0% 6.8%7.3%
10.0%
1.8%2.6%
1.4%2.1%
0.0%
White
Hispanic
Black Employed
Source: 2010 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample BRA Research Division Analysis.
Asian
Two or more Other race races
Unemployed 25
Labor Force Characteristics
Young workers make up a larger portion of the unemployed than they make up amongst the employed.
The ratio of males to females that are employed is nearly 1:1; however, there are fewer unemployed females than unemployed males.
50.0%
47.1%47.1%
54.0%
45.0% 40.0%
52.0%
35.5%
35.0%
50.6% 30.3%
30.0%
53.4%
50.0%
25.0%
49.4%
48.0%
20.0%
46.6% 13.9%
15.0%
8.7%
10.0% 5.0%
46.0%
13.0%
44.0%
4.3%
0.0% Under 20
20-34 Employed
35-55
55 and older
Unemployed
Source: 2006-2010 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample BRA Research Division Analysis.
42.0% Employed
Unemployed Male
Female
26
Unemployment Characteristics Subject
Employed
Unemployed
Unemployment Rate
Male Female
157,163 160,690
17,152 14,973
9.8% 8.5%
Under 20 Years 20 to 34 Years 35 to 54 Years 55 Years+
13,770 149,778 112,861 41,444
4,468 15,123 9,728 2,806
24.5% 9.2% 7.9% 6.3%
30,498 60,085 58,767 15,069 91,624 61,810
6,981 9,434 7,894 1,223 4,806 1,787
18.6% 13.6% 11.8% 7.5% 5.0% 2.8%
175,845 46,747 59,432 26,231 4,404 5,194
10,046 6,715 11,560 2,586 640 578
5.4% 12.6% 16.3% 9.0% 12.7% 10.0%
Less than High School High School Some College Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate Degree White Hispanic Black Asian Two or More Races Other Race
Source: 2006-2010 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample BRA Research Division Analysis.
27
Planning District Characteristics Unemployment by Planning District Boston Allston-‐Brighton Back Bay-‐Beacon Hill Central Charlestown East Boston Fenway-‐Kenmore Hyde Park Jamaica Plain MaYapan North Dorchester Roslindale Roxbury South Boston South Dorchester South End West Roxbury
2006 -‐ 2010 ACS 2000 Census Unemployment Poverty Poverty Status Unemployment Rate Rate Status 7.9% 15.0% 7.2% 19.5% 4.9% 23.1% 5.3% 23.0% 3.5% 11.4% 6.0% 10.3% 4.8% 5.5% 9.4% 11.1% 10.3% 5.1% 15.0% 11.8% 8.8% 17.7% 5.6% 14.7% 12.3% 6.3%
Source: 2006-2010 American Community Survey, 2000 Census, BRA Research Division Analysis.
18.9% 16.8% 15.0% 38.3% 11.0% 14.3% 22.7% 26.7% 14.0% 32.3% 17.8% 19.9% 30.5% 5.6%
8.9% 4.1% 7.3% 11.4% 5.5% 5.5% 9.7% 9.6% 4.9% 11.6% 5.0% 7.9% 6.9% 3.0%
16.9% 17.5% 19.5% 37.3% 10.4% 20.9% 22.3% 20.8% 13.6% 27.1% 17.3% 17.3% 23.9% 6.4% 28
The BRA Research Division has put together profiles of Boston’s Planning Districts, Neighborhoods, City Council Districts, and Wards, which can all be found here: http://www.bostonredevelopmentauthority.org/Research/Research.asp For more information from the US Census Bureau, please visit: http://www.census.gov Thank you.
