Vanderbilt University Leadership, Policy and Organizations Class Number EHLP 3810 Summer 2013

Decision Analysis II: Quantitative Reasoning William R. Doyle Office: 207E Payne Office Hours: This class only: Fridays 12-2, or by appointment (Skype and phone appointments welcome) [email protected] phone (615) 322-2904

Course Overview The overview includes an introduction to the course, guidelines on grading, and required texts.

Introduction This course will equip the student with basic skills needed to perform data analysis for the purpose of research. Through applied practice, students will gain an understanding of how to use quantitative analysis to answer research questions. We will cover how to describe data using various summary and graphical techniques, along with measures of central tendency and variance. We will then cover how to analyze data through the use of t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA), correlational analysis and regression. Two characteristics of this course should be noted from the outset. First, we will emphasize the interpretation of data analysis over a theoretical approach. Second, most of the learning will take place through a hands-on approach to data analysis. This course will provide students with the ability to use to data to effectively inform decision making.

Grading Evaluation for the course will be based on the following factors: Final Project 40% Quizzes: 40% In-class work: 10 % Problem sets: 10% Final Project: For your final projects, you will work in groups to perform a data analysis on the data that you have collected. The final project will be due one month after our last class, on July 15 at midnight. The project will be discussed in extensive detail during class, but major requirements will include the use of techniques described during the course to answer questions about substantive issues. Quizzes: I will give three quizzes that will be completed after each weekend. The quizzes will cover the concepts in the course up until that point. Each quiz will be graded on a 100 point scale. Quizzes may be resubmitted once for a higher grade, but the maximum score possible for resubmitted quizzes is 89 (B+). No late quizzes will be accepted. Students will have one week to revise their quizzes after receiving my comments.

In-class work: During the course of each class you will be assigned mini-projects which you can complete alone or in groups. These will be graded on a pass/fail basis, and require only that you attempt to answer the questions. Problem sets: I will assign problem sets from the texts described below, which will be due on the Monday before the class meets. Each problem set will be graded pass/fail. No late assignments will be accepted. Problem set solutions will be posted on the class website.

Honor Code Statement ALL of the work submitted for this course is subject to the honor code. For a description of the honor system at Vanderbilt, please click here. Any suspected violation of the honor code will be referred immediately to the Peabody Honor Council, which has jurisdiction over professional and graduate studies at Peabody. Here are my expectations regarding the work done in the course: Final Paper The work done in final papers should be the group’s work alone. Others may not write any section of the paper, and of course plagiarism is strictly forbidden. For a clear discussion of plagiarism, please click here. You may seek outside assistance in reviewing your paper for the purpose of improving the draft. The final paper will be turned in using SafeAssign, which will review the paper against a database of internet websites and other student papers to ensure that all work in the paper is original. If you have any questions about this process, please see me. Quizzes Quizzes are to be done by each student working alone. You may MAY NOT discuss these with anyone else, and all answers should be yours alone. In Class Work During in-class work, you should make use of every resource available to you, including me, your peers, the internet and textbooks. Problem Sets You may complete these alone or in collaboration with other students. You may use any resource you wish to complete these assignments.

Texts The required readings for all of the texts can be completed after the weekend in question. Most students have found that completing the reading after the weekend’s lectures is the most helpful way to proceed. The following texts are available in the bookstore, but should be purchased in any way you see fit: Salkind, N. J. (2010). Statistics for people who (think they) hate statistics. Sage, Thousand Oaks, 4th edition Referred to as Salkind. A user friendly introduction, with specific application of the techniques described in SPSS. Sweet, S. A. and Grace-Martin, K. (2011). Data Analysis with SPSS: A First Course in Applied Statistics. Allyn and Bacon, Boston, 4th edition Referred to as Sweet. This provides helpful step-by-step instructions on the use of SPSS for the purpose of data analysis. This will also be the source for the problem sets for the course. Recommended, but not required: Jaeger, R. M. (1993). Statistics: A Spectator Sport. Sage, Newbury Park, 2nd edition Referred to as Jaeger. This is a very user-friendly introduction to many of the concepts of the class, and will serve as the backbone of the “mini-lectures” I will give on each topic. SPSS Software You will also need to have access to SPSS software to complete assignments and to perform analyses for the final project. SPSS is available in most of the computer labs on campus. It can also be purchased: Vanderbilt offers the SPSS grad pack for a not-very-reasonable price.

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Schedule for Meetings The schedule for all class meetings is as follows:

Friday, May 17 Topic: Review of Empirical Research Research Questions Variables Measurement Scales Required Readings: Sweet Chapter 1 Salkind Chapters 1 & 6 Recommended Readings: Jaeger Chapters 1 & 6 Topic: Data Sets Introduction to data sets to be used in course Variables and values: labeling Producing a codebook Entering data Coding missing data Cleaning data sets Required Readings: Sweet Chapters 1 & 2 Topic: General Techniques for Describing Data Histogram Stem and leaf plot Density plot Frequency tables Box plots Required Readings: Handout from Tufte, E. R. (2001). The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Graphics Press, Cheshire, CT, 2nd edition. Available on oak.

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Saturday, May 18 Topic: Descriptive Statistics I: Measures of Central Tendency Mean Mode Distribution Problems with central tendency: skewness, outliers Required Readings: Sweet Chapter 3 Salkind Chapters 2 & 4 Recommended Readings: Jaeger Chapters 2 & 5 Topic: Descriptive Statistics II: Measures of Variability Range Deviations Standard deviation The Normal distribution Required Readings: Sweet Chapter 3 Salkind Chapters 3 & 8 Recommended Readings: Jaeger Chapter 3 Topic: Recoding variables: scales, indexes, and others How to create scales Reliability: coefficient α Required Readings: Sweet Chapter 4 Salkind Chapter 6 Recommended Readings: Jaeger pages 91-92 4

Friday, May 31 Topic: Inference and estimation in statistics Statistical inference Estimation Hypothesis testing Required Readings: Sweet Chapter 6 Salkind Chapter 9 Recommended Readings: Jaeger Chapters 7,8 & 9 Assignments • First quiz to be taken by Sunday, May 26 by midnight. • Propblem set 1: Sweet Chapter Three, questions 2-6; Chapter Four, questions 1-3 due by Midnight, Thurday May 30

Saturday, June 1 Topic: Differences between groups I: Student’s t test When do I use the t test? What does the t-statistic mean? Required Reading: Sweet Chapter 6 Salkind Chapters 10-12 Recommended Readings: Jaeger Chapter 10 Topic: Differences between groups II: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) When do I use ANOVA? How do I interpret the results? Required Reading: Sweet Chapter 6 Salkind Chapter 13 Recommended Readings: Jaeger Chapter 13 5

Topic: Relationships between variables I: Categorical variables Crosstabulation Chi-square test Required Reading: Sweet Chapter 5 Salkind Chapter 17 Recommended Readings: Jaeger Chapter 12

Friday, June 14 Topics: Relationships between variables II: Continuous variables and correlation Graphical description: scatterplots Measures of correlation: Pearson correlation coefficient Measure of correlation: Spearman correlation coefficient Required Readings Sweet Chapter 7 Salkind Chapters 5 and 15 Recommended Readings: Jaeger Chapters 4 and 11 Assignments • Second quiz to be taken by Sunday, June 9 by midnight. • Problem set 2: Sweet Chapter Five, questions 1,3,4,5,7,9; Chapter Six, questions 1,2,5,6,7, Chapter Seven, questions 1-4 due by Thursday, June 13, midnight.

Saturday, June 15 Topics:Relationships between variables III: Regression Slope Intercept Measures of fit Coefficients Diagnosing common problems: multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, outliers, and other scary-sounding words 6

Required Readings Sweet Chapter 7 Salkind Chapter 16 Recommended Readings: Jaeger Chapter 15, pp. 333-344 Further Assignments • Last quiz to be taken by Sunday, June 23, midnight. Final Paper due July 15, midnight

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