Data Digest: Louisiana October 2011
Broad indicators of economic activity in Louisiana and the United States show slow but steady gains. About the Coincident Economic Indicator
Coincident Economic Indicator
Jan 2001 = 100
August 2011
120
115
110
105
100
95 United States Louisiana 90
85 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
2
Total employment in Louisiana is up slightly from postrecession lows, as education and health services and information continue to add jobs. The current level of employment is at mid2004 levels.
Louisiana Payroll Employment
Thousands, seasonally adjusted 2,000
August 2011
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
3
All industries except education and health services saw significant job losses during the downturn. Some industries continue to show no gains in employment. The information sector lost the greatest percentage of jobs and has seen the highest growth since its trough.
Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Louisiana August 2011
Local government Federal & state government
Educational & health services
0.0
-1.1
Percent change trough to present Percent change peak to trough
0.0
-7.9
Finance, insurance & real estate
26.5 1.3 4.2
-7.2
17.8
-21.9
Retail trade
0.8
-5.4
Wholesale trade
3.6
-10.4
Transportation/Utilities
7.4
-9.3
Manufacturing
5.2
-14.0
Construction
2.1
-11.8
Mining & logging
9.5
-12.2
Total -30.0
1.9
-7.5
Professional & business services
Information
1.1
-10.0
Other services Leisure & hospitality
0.0
-4.0
2.0
-3.6 -20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Note: A reading of 0.0 in the “trough to present” measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the “peak to trough” measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries. Much of the decline in federal government employment is related to the exit of census workers. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
4
Wholesale trade, finance, insurance and real estate, and construction showed positive employment momentum, while local government, professional and business services, and federal and state government employment contracted further. About Employment Momentum
Employment Momentum by Industry: Louisiana 18
August 2011
Improving
14 3-month average annualized percent change
Expanding
Mining and logging
16
Wholesale trade
12
Finance, insurance, and real estate
10 8
Information
Manufacturing Education and health services
6
Construction Transportation/Utilities
Other services
4 Leisure and hospitality
2 0
Professional and business services
-2
Retail trade
-4 Local government
-6 -8 -10
Federal and state government
-12
Contracting
-14 -6
-4
Slipping -2
0
2 4 6 Year-over-year percent change
8
10
12
14
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
5
Houma, Alexandria, Shreveport, and Lafayette have had employment increases of more than 3 percent since their troughs. New Orleans has regained most of the jobs it lost; Baton Rouge continues to shed jobs.
Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Louisiana August 2011
3.8
Shreveport
-4.0 2.4
New Orleans
-2.5 0.8
Monroe
-6.0 Percent change trough to present Percent change peak to trough
Lafayette
3.4 -4.8 5.4
Houma
-7.6 0.0
Baton Rouge
-4.9 4.1
Alexandria
-6.8 2.0
Louisiana
-3.6 -20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Note: A reading of 0.0 in the “trough to present” measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the “peak to trough” measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
6
New Orleans, Shreveport, Lafayette, Houma, and Alexandria are showing positive employment momentum. Baton Rouge and Monroe remain weak. About Employment Momentum
Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Louisiana August 2011
8
Expanding
3-month average annualized percent change
Improving Alexandria
6 Lafayette
Houma
4 New Orleans
2 Shreveport
0 Monroe
-2 Baton Rouge
Slipping
Contracting
-4 -2
-1
0
1 2 Year-over-year percent change
3
4
5
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
7
November 2010 marked the first month since December 2008 that Louisiana’s employment momentum was in the “expanding” quadrant. After slipping in March 2011, Louisiana’s employment momentum moved back into the “expanding” quadrant in April. About Employment Momentum Track
Employment Momentum Track: Louisiana January 2007–August 2011
3-month average percent change, annualized
6
Improving
Expanding
4
2
0
-2
-4
Slipping
Contracting
-6 -4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
8
Since recovering from the effects of Hurricane Katrina in late 2005, Louisiana’s unemployment rate has been below the U.S. rate.
Percent of labor force 12
Unemployment Rate August 2011
Hurricane Katrina 11 10 9 8
Louisiana United States
7 6 5
The table shows unemployment rates for metro areas. Current = August 2011. Year ago and Jan 2007 are included for comparison.
4 3 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
9
Alternative measures of labor underutilization for Louisiana—namely, the U6 figure—show that nearly 14 percent of the state’s labor force is unemployed or underemployed. The U6 for Louisiana is increasing but remains below comparable U.S. measures. About Unemployment Rates
Percent, seasonally adjusted 20
Measures of Labor Utilization: Unemployment Rate and U6 Q2 2011 (Louisiana U6: Q1 2011)
United States: U6 United States: Unemployment rate Louisiana: U6 Louisiana: Unemployment rate
15
10
5
0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: U6=Unemployed + Marginally attached + Part-time economic reasons/Civilian labor force + Marginally attached. Louisiana U6 data are through first-quarter 2011. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
10
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in Louisiana have remained relatively flat since the state began its recovery from the effects of Hurricane Gustav in late 2008.
4-week moving average 12,500
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Louisiana September 10, 2011
Effects of Hurricane Gustav
10,000
7,500
Initial claims averaged just 2,600 per week during 2006-2007. The current number of initial claims remains elevated at more than 4,000.
5,000
2,500
0 2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: U.S Department of Labor–Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics
11
Sales tax revenue has recovered from recession lows and is posting year-over-year increases, but the pace has slowed in recent months.
Year-to-year change, 3-month moving average 40
Louisiana Sales Tax Revenue August 2011
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Louisiana Department of Revenue, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
12
Regional manufacturing activity accelerated in August, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University. Louisiana’s component fell slightly below the Southeast reading.
Southeast Purchasing Managers Index August 2011
70 65 60 55 50 45
The Louisiana component of the SE PMI was 56.9 in August 2011.
40 35 30 25 20 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center
13
Existing home sales have declined after showing improvement in late 2009 and early 2010.
Existing Home Sales
Year-over-year percent change 40
Q2 2011
30
20
10
0
-10
-20 United States Louisiana
-30
-40 2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
2009
2010
2011
14
New home construction remains near record lows in Louisiana and the United States as a whole.
New Residential Home Construction Permits
250,000
5,000
August 2011
225,000 200,000
4,000
175,000 150,000
3,000
125,000 100,000
2,000
75,000 United States (left scale) Lousiana (right scale)
50,000
1,000
25,000 0
0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics
15
Home prices in Louisiana have increased over the past five years, while those in the United States have declined.
Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index
Q1 1980 = 100 400
through Q2 2011
375 350 FHFA House Price Index: Q2 2011
325 300 275 250 225
1-yr % change
5-yr % change
10-yr % change
USA
-3.1
-11.8
31.1
Louisiana
-1.1
7.7
44.2
Baton Rouge
-2.0
11.4
42.1
New Orleans
-1.4
-1.2
41.2
Shreveport
-0.1
10.8
45.6
Alexandria
-1.2
12.4
38.3
Houma
0.6
20.4
60.4
Lafayette
-1.5
9.2
47.0
Monroe
0.0
9.5
33.6
200 United States Louisiana
175 150 2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics
2009
2010
2011
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
16
Import activity through the New Orleans District ports has rebounded from the downturn in early 2009. Exports through New Orleans District ports slowed a bit during the second quarter.
Port Activity
$ thousands
Q2 2011
45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 New Orleans District, imports New Orleans District, exports
5,000,000 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics
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For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at www.frbatlanta.org/rein/learn/map/learn_members.cfm. 18