DAILY REPORT December 28, 2015

Financial Market Analysis Unit Treasury Department Member of DAILY REPORT December 28, 2015 FX RATES EUR mn EUR/RSD 124 80 70 123 FX rates on d...
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Financial Market Analysis Unit Treasury Department Member of

DAILY REPORT December 28, 2015

FX RATES EUR mn

EUR/RSD

124

80 70

123

FX rates on domestic market

60

Currency

Value

Previous

Change

YTD

122

EUR/RSD USD/RSD CHF/RSD GBP/RSD

121.7065 110.9246 112.4517 165.4970

121.8087 111.0583 112.3593 165.9293

-0.08% -0.12% 0.08% -0.26%

-0.62% -11.52% -11.84% -6.89%

121

40 30

120

20 119

10 23-Dec-15

17-Dec-15

11-Dec-15

7-Dec-15

1-Dec-15

25-Nov-15

13-Nov-15

6-Nov-15

Central bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 13,0 mio EUR at average rate 121, 7173.

19-Nov-15

0 2-Nov-15

118 27-Oct-15

Source: NBS

50

Turnover on FX market (right axis)

Source: NBS

International markets Currency

Value

Previous

Change

YTD

EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP GBP/USD USD/JPY

1.0960 1.0827 0.7330 1.4913 120.33

1.0963 1.0815 0.7354 1.4910 120.43

-0.03% 0.12% -0.32% 0.02% -0.08%

9.41% 9.99% 4.26% -0.46% 5.60%

EUR/USD 1.17 1.15

1.13 1.11 1.09

Source: Bloomberg

1.07

21-Dec-15

16-Dec-15

11-Dec-15

6-Dec-15

1-Dec-15

26-Nov-15

21-Nov-15

16-Nov-15

Projection

11-Nov-15

Previous

6-Nov-15

Period

27-Oct-15

Indicator

1-Nov-15

1.05

EURUSD indicator Country/ Time Region

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

MONEY MARKET National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Value 11.0

Source: Reuters

3

3.0

2

Nov-15

4

4.0

Oct-15

5

5.0

Sep-15

0.00 0.05 0.09 0.05

6

6.0

Aug-15

2.60% 3.51% 3.82% 4.04%

7

7.0

Jul-15

2.60% 3.56% 3.91% 4.09%

8.0

Jun-15

Change

8

Beonia (right axis)

May-15

Previous

9.0

Apr-15

Value

9

Belibor 3M

Mar-15

Interbank interest rates - Serbia

10

NBS key rate

10.0

Feb-15

2.50% 6.50% 2.54%

Jan-15

12.1.2016

Source: NBS

BEONIA BELIBOR1M BELIBOR3M BELIBOR 6M

RSD Interest rates

4.50%

Dec-14

Key policy rate Next decision Deposit facility Lending facility Repo operations (1 week)

Source: NBS

Major interest rates Eurozone (ECB) US (Fed) United Kingdom (BOE) Switzerland (SNB)

Value

Next decision

0.05% 0.50% 0.50% -0.75%

21.1.2016 27.1.2016

EUR Interest rates 0.3

ECB main rate

0.2

Euribor 3M 0.1

Source: Bloomberg 0

Interbank Interest rates - Europe

Source: Bloomberg, EBF

-0.1

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

-0.2

Apr-15

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Mar-15

Change (bps)

-0.244% -0.201% -0.131% -0.040%

Feb-15

24.12.2015

-0.244% -0.201% -0.131% -0.040%

Jan-15

EURIBOR1M EURIBOR3M EURIBOR6M

25.12.2015

Dec-14

EONIA

Sources: ECB, EBF

Note: Values are with 2 days delay

Libor Interest rates Libor 1M (USD) Libor 3M (USD) Libor 6M (USD) Libor 1M (CHF) Libor 3M (CHF) Libor 6M (CHF) Sources: ICE, Bloomberg

Interest rate Swap

Value

Previous

Change

0.422% 0.603% 0.827% -0.805% -0.770% -0.702%

0.422% 0.603% 0.828% -0.805% -0.769% -0.702%

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000

EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING USD ISDA 3Y FIXING USD ISDA 5Y FIXING USD ISDA 10Y FIXING Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

Value

Previous

Change

0.040% 0.303% 0.955% 1.367% 1.698% 2.172%

0.056% 0.328% 0.977% 1.345% 1.714% 2.210%

-0.016 -0.025 -0.022 0.022 -0.016 -0.038

Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta

FIXED INCOME Yields on RSD government securities on primary sales 2013present 14.5

RSD Government securities

12.5

24.06.2015 24 month amortizing

10.5 8.5 6.5 4.5

NBS key NBS key rate + 0.94% rate + 0.57%

3y

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

3m

53w

6m

Nov-15

Jul-15

NBS key rate

Sep-15

May-15

Jan-15

Mar-15

Nov-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

May-14

Mar-14

Nov-13

Jan-14

2.5

Jul-13

3.00% 4.09% 4.09% 4.95% 8.23% 10.80% 12.34%

Sep-13

Previous

2.94% 3.25% 4.09% 4.95% 6.59% 6.50% 10.75% 12.99%

May-13

Value

05.11.2015 03.12.2015 15.12.2015 11.12.2015 10.09.2015 20.10.2015 24.03.2015 21.10.2014

Jan-13

Date

3 month 6 month 53 week 2 year 3 year 5 year 7 year 10 year

Mar-13

Maturity

5y

10y

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Scheduled auctions for this week Instrument Date

Volume

Currency

JP Morgan EMBI Serbia

bps 450

400

350

Foreign currency savings bonds A2016

300

Price

Previous

Prinos

98.76

98.76

2.92%

250

Source: Belex

200

EUR government securities

17.7.2015

18.12.2015

24-Oct-15

14.7.2013

24-Aug-15

Positive

24-Jun-15

Negative

24-Apr-15

Stable

24-Feb-15

Fitch B+

24-Dec-14

S&P BB-

24-Oct-14

Moody's B1

24-Aug-14

1.58% 2.00% 3.85% 4.79% 4.50%

24-Jun-14

Previous

24-Apr-14

Value

1.57% 1.79% 3.50% 4.00% 4.40%

24-Feb-14

Date

24.11.2015 22.12.2015 24.12.2015 27.10.2015 04.12.2015

24-Dec-13

150

Maturity

53 week 2 year 3 year 5 year 10 year

Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa

Serbian Eurobond yields (USD)

Serbia Credit rating

Outlook Latest update

Serbia 5y 2017 Serbia 5y 2018 Serbia 7y 2020 Serbia 10y 2021 Serbia 20y 2024

Source: Bloomberg

Value

Previous

UST spread

3.184% 3.843% 4.167% 4.532% 6.435%

3.144% 3.867% 4.175% 4.540% 6.423%

2.399% 2.534% 2.558% 2.735%

Source: Bloomberg

Serbian 10-year Eurobond 2021 120

Price

7

Yield (right axis)

118 6.5

116

114

6

112 5.5

110 108

5

106 4.5

104 Source: Bloomberg

102 nov.15

okt.15

sep.15

avg.15

jul.15

jun.15

maj.15

apr.15

mar.15

feb.15

jan.15

dec.14

4

Source: Bloomberg

2

Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta

EQUTIES SERBIA

Belex 15 Belex line Turnover

Value

Value from the previous day

Change (%)

Change YTD

623.01 1,344.94 16,997,143 Din. 139,540 €

626.31 1,347.69 234,090,955 Din. 1,923,195 €

-0.53% -0.20% -92.74% -92.74%

-6.60% 0.01%

Ratios Belex15

P/B 0,67

Source: Beogradska berza

P/E 9,47

Belex line

BELEX15 800

1,600

700

1,400

600

1,200

500

1,000

400

800

300 dec.13

mar.14

jun.14

sep.14

dec.14

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

600 dec.13

dec.15

mar.14

jun.14

sep.14

dec.14

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

dec.15

Daily change of Belex 15 members 3.75% 0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

GMON

NIIS

IMLK

TGAS

FITO

ALFA

4.48%

2.50%

1.67%

-0.12%

-5.45%

ENHL

-4.55%

KMBN

SJPT

AERO

MTLC

JESV

AIKB

The most traded stocks on Belgrade stock exchange from the previous day Company

Daily change

Weekly change

P/BV

P/E

ROE

Market capitalization

954

5,225,058

-5.14%

-7.97%

1.24

251.42

0.53

10,428,452,568 Din.

AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO AERO

1,098

1,965,420

1.52%

-0.41%

1.51

11.02

14.52

37,649,706,300 Din.

JEDINSTVO SEVOJNO AD

5,291

1,587,300

3.75%

1.91%

0.72

5.48

11.62

1,612,268,229 Din.

500

1,304,000

6.26%

6.26%

0.61

16.91

3.92

559,576,000 Din.

4,700

1,245,500

4.29%

1.98%

1.51

39.33

4.76

592,200,000 Din.

604

1,096,260

0.00%

0.48%

0.56

1.88

33.34

98,488,481,600 Din. 12,422,867,016 Din.

MILAN BLAGOJEVI AD SMEDERE NIS AD NOVI SAD

JESV TRGOM MBLS NIIS

Price RSD

Turnover RSD

ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BEO ENHL

TRGOPROMET AD SUBOTICA

Ticker

SOJAPROTEIN AD

SJPT

834

721,410

-0.11%

0.78%

1.14

46.44

2.34

BUDUCNOST AD BACKA PALANKA

BDBP

1,000

592,000

23.83%

23.83%

0.74

56.67

1.31

408,293,000 Din.

KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA KMBN

1,575

562,275

-4.10%

-4.61%

0.38

6.35

6.61

26,488,280,700 Din.

ENOP

4,301

382,789

0.00%

-2.06%

1.82

8.57

22.27

1,511,973,540 Din.

ENERGOPROJEKT ENTEL AD BEOGR EPEN

11,500

345,000

0.08%

19.15%

4.41

12.25

42.27

4,858,692,500 Din.

1,027

249,561

6.11%

6.11%

0.36

3.65

10.27

967,728,749 Din.

ENERGOPROJEKT OPREMA AD

IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO

IMPL

Source: Belex

Seven companies protected from debt enforcement to be tackled by end-2015, ten after January 1, economy minister says - Seven companies protected from debt enforcement will be tackled by the end of 2015, with the remaining 10 such firms to be tackled after January 1, Economy Minister Zeljko Setic has told RTS, local media reported. Motor and industrial oils producer Fabrika Maziva (FAM), chemicals and explosives producer Prva Iskra, vehicle firm Zastava Group, and agribusiness Poljoprivredna Korporacija Beograd (PKB) will be tackled by end-2015, with three subsidiaries of components maker Prva Petoletka to be taken over by workers’ consortia, he said. Part of Prva Iskra’s assets have been sold and land expropriation completed for a plant to be built by Chinese auto, engine, and industrial components manufacturer Meita Group, he said, adding that part of Zastava Vozila Group will be sold out of bankruptcy. Bids for PKB will be invited by end-2015, he said. (Source: Executive newsletter)

Serbia registers FDI inflow of EUR 1.2 billion in Q1-Q3 - Serbia registered a foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of EUR 1.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2015, a 30% increase year-on-year, with a EUR 1.6 billion inflow expected in the entire 2015, local media reported over the weekend, citing data from the National Bank of Serbia (NBS). In Q3, Serbia registered a net FDI inflow of EUR 470.3 million, according to the NBS’ preliminary data, covered by the November inflation report. (Source: Executive newsletter)

Turkish prime minister to launch two-day visit to Serbia today - Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will arrive in Belgrade today for a two-day visit to Serbia, local media reported. Today, Davutoglu will meet with Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic. Vucic and Davutoglu will also attend a Serbia-Turkey business forum to be held at the Hyatt Regency Belgrade hotel under the auspices of Turkey’s Halkbank in Serbia and in cooperation with the Serbian Chamber of Commerce (PKS). (Source: Executive newsletter)

3

Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta

REGION

Index

Country/Region

Value

Value from the previous day

Crobex SBITOP SOFIX BET DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

Croatia Slovenia Bulgaria Romania Balkans

1,655.77 690.19 448.08 6,987.23 393.94

1,655.77 690.19 448.08 6,987.23 393.94

Change (%)

Change YTD (%) -5.14% -11.98% -14.18% -1.35% -22.90%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Source: Bloomberg

CROBEX

2,000

850

1,900

800

750

1,850

700

1,800

crobex

1,750

sbi20

650

1,700

600

1,650

550

1,600

500 450

1,550

400

1,500

dec.13

SBITOP

900

1,950

mar.14

jun.14

sep.14

dec.14

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

dec.13

dec.15

SOFIX

650 600

jun.14

sep.14

dec.14

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

dec.15

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

dec.15

BET

7,500

550

7,000

sofix

500

bet-c

6,500

450

6,000

400

5,500

350

5,000

300

4,500

250

4,000

200

dec.13

mar.14

8,000

3,500

mar.14

jun.14

sep.14

dec.14

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

dec.15

dec.13

mar.14

jun.14

sep.14

dec.14

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

750

650

dj balkan 550

450

350

250

dec.13

feb.14

apr.14

jun.14

avg.14

okt.14

dec.14

feb.15

apr.15

jun.15

avg.15

okt.15

dec.15

Hungary on Track to Sustain EU Fund Receipts, Varga Tells MTI - “While many analysts expect a substantial drop in the inflow of EU funds next year, I am more optimistic than that,” Economy Minister Mihaly Varga says in interview w/ state-run MTI news service. Keeps 2016 GDP growth f’cast at 2.5%, CPI at 1.6%. Drop in EU fund receipts represents “major risk” next yr, State Secretary Agnes Hornung says in separate interview with Magyar Idok newspaper. Hornung sees 2015 GDP growth ~3%. Hungary committed to cutting public debt/GDP. Government to complete 2017 budget in spring session. (Source: Bloomberg)

Greek Govt Mulls Bank Transaction Tax to Fund Pensions - Greek government mulls imposing ~0.1% levy on bank transactions over EU1,000, as an alternative to pension cuts, Ta Nea newspaper reports, without citing anyone. Proceeds from levy would be used to fund pension system, if creditors reject govt’s proposal to increase mandatory employer and employee contributions by 1% of gross salary. Government proposal to creditors is increase in employer contributions to pension system by 0.5% of gross salary, employee contributions by another 0.5% of gross salary. Government plans submission of pension reform bill by Jan. 8, plenary vote in parliament by Jan. 15 deadline. (Source: Bloomberg)

4

Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta

WORLD

Index

Country/Region

Value

Value from the previous day

Change (%)

Change YTD (%)

Dow Jones Industrial S&P 500 NASDAQ FTSE Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Nikkei 225

US US US UK EU Japan

17,552.17 2,060.99 5,048.49 6,254.64 366.28 18,769.06

17,552.17 2,060.99 5,048.49 6,254.64 366.28 18,789.69

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.11%

-1.52% 0.10% 6.60% -4.74% 6.93% 7.55%

Source: Bloomberg

Dow Jones Industrial

19,000 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500 12,000

dec.13

2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800

dow jones

s&p

1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300

mar.14

jun.14

sep.14

dec.14

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

dec.13

dec.15

NASDAQ Composite

5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800

dec.13

S&P 500 2,200

mar.14

jun.14

sep.14

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

dec.15

FTSE

7,500

7,000

nasdaq

dec.14

dax

6,500

6,000

5,500

mar.14

jun.14

sep.14

dec.14

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

dec.13

dec.15

DJ Stoxx 600

440

feb.14

apr.14

jun.14

avg.14

dec.14

feb.15

apr.15

jun.15

avg.15

okt.15

dec.15

Nikkei 225

23,000

420

okt.14

21,000

400 19,000

380

17,000

360

nikkei

340

dj stoxx

\

15,000

320

13,000

300 11,000

280

9,000

260

dec.13

mar.14

jun.14

sep.14

dec.14

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

dec.13

dec.15

Brent (USD/bbl)

70

mar.14

jun.14

dec.14

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

dec.15

Gold

1,350

65

sep.14

1,300

60

1,250

55 1,200

\

50 1,150 45 1,100

40

1,050

35

dec.14

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

dec.14

dec.15

mar.15

jun.15

sep.15

dec.15

Vix Index

45 40

35 30 25 20 15

10 Aug-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Sep-15

Sep-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Oct-15

Oct-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Nov-15

Nov-15

Nov-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Dec-15

Dec-15

Asian Stocks Trading Near Three-Week High as Industrials Gain - Asian stocks advanced, with the regional benchmark measure trading near a three-week high, as industrial and financial shares led gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.1 percent to 131.37 as of 9:28 a.m. in Tokyo. Markets in Australia and New Zealand are shut for holidays. The Asian gauge is poised to drop 4.7 percent this year for its first back-to-back losses since 2002 amid decelerating Chinese growth and a rout in commodities.“For 2016, the outlook should become less hazy and investors should enjoy greater clarity with regards to the pace of Fed rate hikes and hopefully the Chinese economy will also show signs of stability which will benefit commodity prices and emerging economies,” Vasu Menon, vice president of wealth management at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore, said by email. “Equity markets are likely to remain volatile, at least into the first half of 2016, as markets come to terms with the direction of U.S. monetary policy and the economic outlook for China.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Oil Falls From Three-Week High as Iran Says Exports `Priority' - Oil in New York slid from the highest in three weeks and snapped the longest run of gains since April as Iran repeated its goal of boosting exports after sanctions on the country are lifted. Futures lost as much as 1.1 percent, falling the first time in five days. Iran’s priority is to boost crude shipments to presanction levels, state-backed IRNA reported, citing Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh. The Persian Gulf nation plans to add 500,000 barrels a day of exports within a week after sanctions are removed, said Rokneddin Javadi, head of National Iranian Oil Co., according to Shana news agency. The global glut that’s sent WTI toward its second yearly decline may deepen after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries effectively abandoned output limits earlier this month. Brent, the benchmark for more than half the world’s crude, is poised to end 2015 with the lowest annual average price in 11 years, hurting oil-exporting countries and companies. “If Iran adds as much as it plans to the already oversupplied market, there is definitely less hope for the market in the first half of next year,” said Hong Sung Ki, senior commodities analyst at Samsung Futures Inc., said by phone from Seoul. The country’s export ambitions “will become a driver for lower prices,” he said. (Source: Bloomberg)

Contact Financial Market Analysis Olivera Glišić Vladimir Gavović [email protected]

201-1314 201-1263

Broker-Dealer Office Snežana Spasojević Dragomir Milin [email protected]

Custody Vitomir Marić Biljana Radosavljević [email protected]

201-3621 201-3622

Dealing 201-1315 201-3622

Darko Karanović Nikola Ostojić Dragan Ignja

201-3624 201-3626 201-3627 201-3625

[email protected] Disclaimer This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data. Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.

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