Financial Market Analysis Unit Treasury Department Member of
DAILY REPORT December 28, 2015
FX RATES EUR mn
EUR/RSD
124
80 70
123
FX rates on domestic market
60
Currency
Value
Previous
Change
YTD
122
EUR/RSD USD/RSD CHF/RSD GBP/RSD
121.7065 110.9246 112.4517 165.4970
121.8087 111.0583 112.3593 165.9293
-0.08% -0.12% 0.08% -0.26%
-0.62% -11.52% -11.84% -6.89%
121
40 30
120
20 119
10 23-Dec-15
17-Dec-15
11-Dec-15
7-Dec-15
1-Dec-15
25-Nov-15
13-Nov-15
6-Nov-15
Central bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 13,0 mio EUR at average rate 121, 7173.
19-Nov-15
0 2-Nov-15
118 27-Oct-15
Source: NBS
50
Turnover on FX market (right axis)
Source: NBS
International markets Currency
Value
Previous
Change
YTD
EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP GBP/USD USD/JPY
1.0960 1.0827 0.7330 1.4913 120.33
1.0963 1.0815 0.7354 1.4910 120.43
-0.03% 0.12% -0.32% 0.02% -0.08%
9.41% 9.99% 4.26% -0.46% 5.60%
EUR/USD 1.17 1.15
1.13 1.11 1.09
Source: Bloomberg
1.07
21-Dec-15
16-Dec-15
11-Dec-15
6-Dec-15
1-Dec-15
26-Nov-15
21-Nov-15
16-Nov-15
Projection
11-Nov-15
Previous
6-Nov-15
Period
27-Oct-15
Indicator
1-Nov-15
1.05
EURUSD indicator Country/ Time Region
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
MONEY MARKET National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Value 11.0
Source: Reuters
3
3.0
2
Nov-15
4
4.0
Oct-15
5
5.0
Sep-15
0.00 0.05 0.09 0.05
6
6.0
Aug-15
2.60% 3.51% 3.82% 4.04%
7
7.0
Jul-15
2.60% 3.56% 3.91% 4.09%
8.0
Jun-15
Change
8
Beonia (right axis)
May-15
Previous
9.0
Apr-15
Value
9
Belibor 3M
Mar-15
Interbank interest rates - Serbia
10
NBS key rate
10.0
Feb-15
2.50% 6.50% 2.54%
Jan-15
12.1.2016
Source: NBS
BEONIA BELIBOR1M BELIBOR3M BELIBOR 6M
RSD Interest rates
4.50%
Dec-14
Key policy rate Next decision Deposit facility Lending facility Repo operations (1 week)
Source: NBS
Major interest rates Eurozone (ECB) US (Fed) United Kingdom (BOE) Switzerland (SNB)
Value
Next decision
0.05% 0.50% 0.50% -0.75%
21.1.2016 27.1.2016
EUR Interest rates 0.3
ECB main rate
0.2
Euribor 3M 0.1
Source: Bloomberg 0
Interbank Interest rates - Europe
Source: Bloomberg, EBF
-0.1
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
-0.2
Apr-15
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Mar-15
Change (bps)
-0.244% -0.201% -0.131% -0.040%
Feb-15
24.12.2015
-0.244% -0.201% -0.131% -0.040%
Jan-15
EURIBOR1M EURIBOR3M EURIBOR6M
25.12.2015
Dec-14
EONIA
Sources: ECB, EBF
Note: Values are with 2 days delay
Libor Interest rates Libor 1M (USD) Libor 3M (USD) Libor 6M (USD) Libor 1M (CHF) Libor 3M (CHF) Libor 6M (CHF) Sources: ICE, Bloomberg
Interest rate Swap
Value
Previous
Change
0.422% 0.603% 0.827% -0.805% -0.770% -0.702%
0.422% 0.603% 0.828% -0.805% -0.769% -0.702%
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000
EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING USD ISDA 3Y FIXING USD ISDA 5Y FIXING USD ISDA 10Y FIXING Sources: IBA, Bloomberg
Value
Previous
Change
0.040% 0.303% 0.955% 1.367% 1.698% 2.172%
0.056% 0.328% 0.977% 1.345% 1.714% 2.210%
-0.016 -0.025 -0.022 0.022 -0.016 -0.038
Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta
FIXED INCOME Yields on RSD government securities on primary sales 2013present 14.5
RSD Government securities
12.5
24.06.2015 24 month amortizing
10.5 8.5 6.5 4.5
NBS key NBS key rate + 0.94% rate + 0.57%
3y
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
3m
53w
6m
Nov-15
Jul-15
NBS key rate
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jan-14
2.5
Jul-13
3.00% 4.09% 4.09% 4.95% 8.23% 10.80% 12.34%
Sep-13
Previous
2.94% 3.25% 4.09% 4.95% 6.59% 6.50% 10.75% 12.99%
May-13
Value
05.11.2015 03.12.2015 15.12.2015 11.12.2015 10.09.2015 20.10.2015 24.03.2015 21.10.2014
Jan-13
Date
3 month 6 month 53 week 2 year 3 year 5 year 7 year 10 year
Mar-13
Maturity
5y
10y
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Scheduled auctions for this week Instrument Date
Volume
Currency
JP Morgan EMBI Serbia
bps 450
400
350
Foreign currency savings bonds A2016
300
Price
Previous
Prinos
98.76
98.76
2.92%
250
Source: Belex
200
EUR government securities
17.7.2015
18.12.2015
24-Oct-15
14.7.2013
24-Aug-15
Positive
24-Jun-15
Negative
24-Apr-15
Stable
24-Feb-15
Fitch B+
24-Dec-14
S&P BB-
24-Oct-14
Moody's B1
24-Aug-14
1.58% 2.00% 3.85% 4.79% 4.50%
24-Jun-14
Previous
24-Apr-14
Value
1.57% 1.79% 3.50% 4.00% 4.40%
24-Feb-14
Date
24.11.2015 22.12.2015 24.12.2015 27.10.2015 04.12.2015
24-Dec-13
150
Maturity
53 week 2 year 3 year 5 year 10 year
Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan
Source: Public Debt Management Agency
Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa
Serbian Eurobond yields (USD)
Serbia Credit rating
Outlook Latest update
Serbia 5y 2017 Serbia 5y 2018 Serbia 7y 2020 Serbia 10y 2021 Serbia 20y 2024
Source: Bloomberg
Value
Previous
UST spread
3.184% 3.843% 4.167% 4.532% 6.435%
3.144% 3.867% 4.175% 4.540% 6.423%
2.399% 2.534% 2.558% 2.735%
Source: Bloomberg
Serbian 10-year Eurobond 2021 120
Price
7
Yield (right axis)
118 6.5
116
114
6
112 5.5
110 108
5
106 4.5
104 Source: Bloomberg
102 nov.15
okt.15
sep.15
avg.15
jul.15
jun.15
maj.15
apr.15
mar.15
feb.15
jan.15
dec.14
4
Source: Bloomberg
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Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta
EQUTIES SERBIA
Belex 15 Belex line Turnover
Value
Value from the previous day
Change (%)
Change YTD
623.01 1,344.94 16,997,143 Din. 139,540 €
626.31 1,347.69 234,090,955 Din. 1,923,195 €
-0.53% -0.20% -92.74% -92.74%
-6.60% 0.01%
Ratios Belex15
P/B 0,67
Source: Beogradska berza
P/E 9,47
Belex line
BELEX15 800
1,600
700
1,400
600
1,200
500
1,000
400
800
300 dec.13
mar.14
jun.14
sep.14
dec.14
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
600 dec.13
dec.15
mar.14
jun.14
sep.14
dec.14
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
dec.15
Daily change of Belex 15 members 3.75% 0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
GMON
NIIS
IMLK
TGAS
FITO
ALFA
4.48%
2.50%
1.67%
-0.12%
-5.45%
ENHL
-4.55%
KMBN
SJPT
AERO
MTLC
JESV
AIKB
The most traded stocks on Belgrade stock exchange from the previous day Company
Daily change
Weekly change
P/BV
P/E
ROE
Market capitalization
954
5,225,058
-5.14%
-7.97%
1.24
251.42
0.53
10,428,452,568 Din.
AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO AERO
1,098
1,965,420
1.52%
-0.41%
1.51
11.02
14.52
37,649,706,300 Din.
JEDINSTVO SEVOJNO AD
5,291
1,587,300
3.75%
1.91%
0.72
5.48
11.62
1,612,268,229 Din.
500
1,304,000
6.26%
6.26%
0.61
16.91
3.92
559,576,000 Din.
4,700
1,245,500
4.29%
1.98%
1.51
39.33
4.76
592,200,000 Din.
604
1,096,260
0.00%
0.48%
0.56
1.88
33.34
98,488,481,600 Din. 12,422,867,016 Din.
MILAN BLAGOJEVI AD SMEDERE NIS AD NOVI SAD
JESV TRGOM MBLS NIIS
Price RSD
Turnover RSD
ENERGOPROJEKT HOLDING AD BEO ENHL
TRGOPROMET AD SUBOTICA
Ticker
SOJAPROTEIN AD
SJPT
834
721,410
-0.11%
0.78%
1.14
46.44
2.34
BUDUCNOST AD BACKA PALANKA
BDBP
1,000
592,000
23.83%
23.83%
0.74
56.67
1.31
408,293,000 Din.
KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD BEOGRA KMBN
1,575
562,275
-4.10%
-4.61%
0.38
6.35
6.61
26,488,280,700 Din.
ENOP
4,301
382,789
0.00%
-2.06%
1.82
8.57
22.27
1,511,973,540 Din.
ENERGOPROJEKT ENTEL AD BEOGR EPEN
11,500
345,000
0.08%
19.15%
4.41
12.25
42.27
4,858,692,500 Din.
1,027
249,561
6.11%
6.11%
0.36
3.65
10.27
967,728,749 Din.
ENERGOPROJEKT OPREMA AD
IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO
IMPL
Source: Belex
Seven companies protected from debt enforcement to be tackled by end-2015, ten after January 1, economy minister says - Seven companies protected from debt enforcement will be tackled by the end of 2015, with the remaining 10 such firms to be tackled after January 1, Economy Minister Zeljko Setic has told RTS, local media reported. Motor and industrial oils producer Fabrika Maziva (FAM), chemicals and explosives producer Prva Iskra, vehicle firm Zastava Group, and agribusiness Poljoprivredna Korporacija Beograd (PKB) will be tackled by end-2015, with three subsidiaries of components maker Prva Petoletka to be taken over by workers’ consortia, he said. Part of Prva Iskra’s assets have been sold and land expropriation completed for a plant to be built by Chinese auto, engine, and industrial components manufacturer Meita Group, he said, adding that part of Zastava Vozila Group will be sold out of bankruptcy. Bids for PKB will be invited by end-2015, he said. (Source: Executive newsletter)
Serbia registers FDI inflow of EUR 1.2 billion in Q1-Q3 - Serbia registered a foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of EUR 1.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2015, a 30% increase year-on-year, with a EUR 1.6 billion inflow expected in the entire 2015, local media reported over the weekend, citing data from the National Bank of Serbia (NBS). In Q3, Serbia registered a net FDI inflow of EUR 470.3 million, according to the NBS’ preliminary data, covered by the November inflation report. (Source: Executive newsletter)
Turkish prime minister to launch two-day visit to Serbia today - Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will arrive in Belgrade today for a two-day visit to Serbia, local media reported. Today, Davutoglu will meet with Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic. Vucic and Davutoglu will also attend a Serbia-Turkey business forum to be held at the Hyatt Regency Belgrade hotel under the auspices of Turkey’s Halkbank in Serbia and in cooperation with the Serbian Chamber of Commerce (PKS). (Source: Executive newsletter)
3
Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta
REGION
Index
Country/Region
Value
Value from the previous day
Crobex SBITOP SOFIX BET DJ Stoxx Balkan 50
Croatia Slovenia Bulgaria Romania Balkans
1,655.77 690.19 448.08 6,987.23 393.94
1,655.77 690.19 448.08 6,987.23 393.94
Change (%)
Change YTD (%) -5.14% -11.98% -14.18% -1.35% -22.90%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Source: Bloomberg
CROBEX
2,000
850
1,900
800
750
1,850
700
1,800
crobex
1,750
sbi20
650
1,700
600
1,650
550
1,600
500 450
1,550
400
1,500
dec.13
SBITOP
900
1,950
mar.14
jun.14
sep.14
dec.14
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
dec.13
dec.15
SOFIX
650 600
jun.14
sep.14
dec.14
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
dec.15
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
dec.15
BET
7,500
550
7,000
sofix
500
bet-c
6,500
450
6,000
400
5,500
350
5,000
300
4,500
250
4,000
200
dec.13
mar.14
8,000
3,500
mar.14
jun.14
sep.14
dec.14
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
dec.15
dec.13
mar.14
jun.14
sep.14
dec.14
DJ Stoxx Balkan 50
750
650
dj balkan 550
450
350
250
dec.13
feb.14
apr.14
jun.14
avg.14
okt.14
dec.14
feb.15
apr.15
jun.15
avg.15
okt.15
dec.15
Hungary on Track to Sustain EU Fund Receipts, Varga Tells MTI - “While many analysts expect a substantial drop in the inflow of EU funds next year, I am more optimistic than that,” Economy Minister Mihaly Varga says in interview w/ state-run MTI news service. Keeps 2016 GDP growth f’cast at 2.5%, CPI at 1.6%. Drop in EU fund receipts represents “major risk” next yr, State Secretary Agnes Hornung says in separate interview with Magyar Idok newspaper. Hornung sees 2015 GDP growth ~3%. Hungary committed to cutting public debt/GDP. Government to complete 2017 budget in spring session. (Source: Bloomberg)
Greek Govt Mulls Bank Transaction Tax to Fund Pensions - Greek government mulls imposing ~0.1% levy on bank transactions over EU1,000, as an alternative to pension cuts, Ta Nea newspaper reports, without citing anyone. Proceeds from levy would be used to fund pension system, if creditors reject govt’s proposal to increase mandatory employer and employee contributions by 1% of gross salary. Government proposal to creditors is increase in employer contributions to pension system by 0.5% of gross salary, employee contributions by another 0.5% of gross salary. Government plans submission of pension reform bill by Jan. 8, plenary vote in parliament by Jan. 15 deadline. (Source: Bloomberg)
4
Služba za analizu finansijskih tržišta
WORLD
Index
Country/Region
Value
Value from the previous day
Change (%)
Change YTD (%)
Dow Jones Industrial S&P 500 NASDAQ FTSE Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Nikkei 225
US US US UK EU Japan
17,552.17 2,060.99 5,048.49 6,254.64 366.28 18,769.06
17,552.17 2,060.99 5,048.49 6,254.64 366.28 18,789.69
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.11%
-1.52% 0.10% 6.60% -4.74% 6.93% 7.55%
Source: Bloomberg
Dow Jones Industrial
19,000 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500 12,000
dec.13
2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800
dow jones
s&p
1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300
mar.14
jun.14
sep.14
dec.14
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
dec.13
dec.15
NASDAQ Composite
5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800
dec.13
S&P 500 2,200
mar.14
jun.14
sep.14
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
dec.15
FTSE
7,500
7,000
nasdaq
dec.14
dax
6,500
6,000
5,500
mar.14
jun.14
sep.14
dec.14
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
dec.13
dec.15
DJ Stoxx 600
440
feb.14
apr.14
jun.14
avg.14
dec.14
feb.15
apr.15
jun.15
avg.15
okt.15
dec.15
Nikkei 225
23,000
420
okt.14
21,000
400 19,000
380
17,000
360
nikkei
340
dj stoxx
\
15,000
320
13,000
300 11,000
280
9,000
260
dec.13
mar.14
jun.14
sep.14
dec.14
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
dec.13
dec.15
Brent (USD/bbl)
70
mar.14
jun.14
dec.14
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
dec.15
Gold
1,350
65
sep.14
1,300
60
1,250
55 1,200
\
50 1,150 45 1,100
40
1,050
35
dec.14
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
dec.14
dec.15
mar.15
jun.15
sep.15
dec.15
Vix Index
45 40
35 30 25 20 15
10 Aug-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Nov-15
Nov-15
Nov-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Dec-15
Dec-15
Asian Stocks Trading Near Three-Week High as Industrials Gain - Asian stocks advanced, with the regional benchmark measure trading near a three-week high, as industrial and financial shares led gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.1 percent to 131.37 as of 9:28 a.m. in Tokyo. Markets in Australia and New Zealand are shut for holidays. The Asian gauge is poised to drop 4.7 percent this year for its first back-to-back losses since 2002 amid decelerating Chinese growth and a rout in commodities.“For 2016, the outlook should become less hazy and investors should enjoy greater clarity with regards to the pace of Fed rate hikes and hopefully the Chinese economy will also show signs of stability which will benefit commodity prices and emerging economies,” Vasu Menon, vice president of wealth management at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore, said by email. “Equity markets are likely to remain volatile, at least into the first half of 2016, as markets come to terms with the direction of U.S. monetary policy and the economic outlook for China.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil Falls From Three-Week High as Iran Says Exports `Priority' - Oil in New York slid from the highest in three weeks and snapped the longest run of gains since April as Iran repeated its goal of boosting exports after sanctions on the country are lifted. Futures lost as much as 1.1 percent, falling the first time in five days. Iran’s priority is to boost crude shipments to presanction levels, state-backed IRNA reported, citing Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh. The Persian Gulf nation plans to add 500,000 barrels a day of exports within a week after sanctions are removed, said Rokneddin Javadi, head of National Iranian Oil Co., according to Shana news agency. The global glut that’s sent WTI toward its second yearly decline may deepen after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries effectively abandoned output limits earlier this month. Brent, the benchmark for more than half the world’s crude, is poised to end 2015 with the lowest annual average price in 11 years, hurting oil-exporting countries and companies. “If Iran adds as much as it plans to the already oversupplied market, there is definitely less hope for the market in the first half of next year,” said Hong Sung Ki, senior commodities analyst at Samsung Futures Inc., said by phone from Seoul. The country’s export ambitions “will become a driver for lower prices,” he said. (Source: Bloomberg)
Contact Financial Market Analysis Olivera Glišić Vladimir Gavović
[email protected]
201-1314 201-1263
Broker-Dealer Office Snežana Spasojević Dragomir Milin
[email protected]
Custody Vitomir Marić Biljana Radosavljević
[email protected]
201-3621 201-3622
Dealing 201-1315 201-3622
Darko Karanović Nikola Ostojić Dragan Ignja
201-3624 201-3626 201-3627 201-3625
[email protected] Disclaimer This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data. Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.
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