CURRICULUM VITAE CARL P. SCHMERTMANN

CURRICULUM VITAE CARL P. SCHMERTMANN Business Address Center for Demography & Population Health Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306-2240 8...
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CURRICULUM VITAE

CARL P. SCHMERTMANN Business Address Center for Demography & Population Health Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306-2240 850/644-7100 Email: [email protected] Birthdate: Birthplace:

Home Address 5232 Greystoke Lane Tallahassee, FL 32309 850/894-9342

1959 Gainesville, Florida

EDUCATION Ph.D., Economics, University of California-Berkeley, December 1988. Dissertation: "Self-Selection and Internal Migration in Brazil" Advisors: Albert Fishlow and Ronald Lee B.S. (with distinction), Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, May 1981. PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE Assistant to Full Professor, Department of Economics, and Research Associate, Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University. August 1990 - present. (promoted August 1996, August 2003) Visiting Researcher, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. Oct 2011-Jun 2012 (2011-12 academic year sabbatical) Visiting Researcher, US Census Bureau, Population Division, July 2011. (Summer at Census program) Visiting Research Fellow, Population Research Center, University of Texas-Austin, Aug 1998-Jul 1999 Visiting Assistant Professor, Departments of Demography and Economics, University of California, Berkeley. January-June 1993. Visiting Professor of Economics, Center for Regional Development and Planning (CEDEPLAR), Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil. 1989-1990, and August 2011 (graduate short course on Bayesian small-area estimation). Assistant Analyst, Congressional Budget Office, Human Resources and Community Development Division, Washington, DC. 1981-1983. FELLOWSHIPS AND AWARDS Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Best Paper published in Demographic Research 2003. (International competition).

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Rockefeller Foundation, Post-Doctoral Research Fellowship in Population Sciences, CEDEPLAR/UFMG, Brazil, 1989-90. (National competition) NICHD Traineeship in Population Studies, UC Berkeley, 1987-88. (Departmental competition) National Science Foundation, Pre-Doctoral Fellowship in Economics, 1983-85. (National competition) Best undergraduate thesis in economics, UW-Madison, 1981 (Departmental competition) Phi Beta Kappa EXTERNAL GRANTS AND CONTRACTS NIH Grant for "Fertility Transition in Brazil 1960-2000 ” (HD041528; 09 Jul 02- 08 Jul 05; co-PI with J. Potter, U. Texas; $540K direct costs) NIH Grant for "Immigration and Changes in US Fertility ” (01 Jun 01- 31 May 04; co-PI with G. Swicegood, U. Illinois, and F. Bean, UC-Irvine; $600K direct costs) NIA Grant for "Post-Immigration Mobility of the Foreign-Born Elderly” (AG14509; 30 Sep 9731 Dec 98; $40K direct costs) US Census Bureau Contract for "Analysis of 1996 American Community Survey Test Data for Brevard County, FL” ($10K) PEER-REVIEWED PUBLICATIONS CP Schmertmann, “Adjusting for Population Shifts and Covariates in Space-Time Interaction Tests”. Biometrics 71(3):714-720. 2015. CP Schmertmann. “Calibrated Spline Estimation of Detailed Fertility Schedules from Abridged Data”. Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População, 31(2):291-307. 2014. CP Schmertmann, E Zagheni, J Goldstein and M Myrskylä. “Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility”. Journal of the American Statistical Association 109(506):500-513. 2014. CP Schmertmann, SM Cavenaghi, RM Assunção and JE Potter. “Bayes plus Brass: Estimating Total Fertility for Many Small Areas from Sparse Census Data”. Population Studies 67(3):255-273. 2013 DA Grossman, K Grindlay, T Buchacker, JE Potter and CP Schmertmann. “Changes in Delivery Service Patterns after Introduction of Telemedicine Service for Medical Abortion in Iowa”. American Journal of Public Health 103(1):73-78. 2013

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CP Schmertmann. “Stationary Populations with Below-Replacement Fertility”. Demographic Research Vol 26-14. 2012. CP Schmertmann, JE Potter, and RM Assunção.. “An Innovative Methodology for Space-Time Analysis with an Application to the 1960-2000 Brazilian Mortality Transition”, in Navigating Time and Space in Population Studies, International Studies in Population, Vol. 9, edited by MP Gutmann, GD Deane, KM Sylvester, and ER Merchant, Springer, pp. 19-36. 2011 CP Schmertmann, RM Assunção, and JE Potter, “Knox meets Cox: Adapting Epidemiological Space-Time Statistics to Demographic Studies”. Demography 47(3):629-650. 2010. JE Potter, CP Schmertmann, RM Assunção, and SM Cavenaghi, “Mapping the Timing, Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil”. Population and Development Review 36(2):283-307. 2010. CP Schmertmann, JE Potter, and SM Cavenaghi, “Exploratory Analysis of Spatial Patterns in Brazil’s Fertility Transition”. Population Research and Policy Review 27(1):1-15. 2008. RM Assunção, CP Schmertmann, JE Potter, and SM Cavenaghi, “Empirical Bayes Estimation of Demographic Schedules for Small Areas” Demography 42(3):537-558. 2005. CP Schmertmann, “Quadratic Spline Fits by Non-linear Least Squares”. Demographic Research Vol 12-5 (22 Mar 2005) CP Schmertmann, “A System of Model Fertility Schedules with Graphically Intuitive Parameters”. Demographic Research Vol. 9-5 (10 Oct 2003). JE Potter, CP Schmertmann, and SM Cavenaghi, “Fertility and Development: Evidence from Brazil”. Demography 39(4):739-761. 2002. CP Schmertmann, “A Simple Method for Estimating Age-Specific Rates from Sequential Cross-Sections”, Demography 39(2):287-310. 2002. AA Amankwaa, IW Eberstein, and CP Schmertmann, “Polygyny And Infant Mortality in Western Africa: Evidence From Ghana”. African Population Studies 16(1):1-13. 2001. CP Schmertmann, M Boyd, W Serow, and D White. “Elder-Child Coresidence in the United States: Evidence from the 1990 Census”, Research on Aging 22(1):23-42. 2000. CP Schmertmann, “Fertility Estimation from Open Birth Interval Data”, Demography 36(4):505-519. 1999. CP Schmertmann and AJ Caetano, “Estimating Parametric Fertility Models with Open Birth Interval Data”, Demographic Research Vol. 1-5 (22 Sep 1999)

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CP Schmertmann, “Estimating Multistate Transition Hazards from Last-Move Data”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94 (445):53-63. 1999. CP Schmertmann, AA Amankwaa, and RD Long, "Three Strikes and You're Out: Demographic Analysis of Mandatory Prison Sentencing", Demography 35(4):445-463. 1998. CP Schmertmann and DO Sawyer, "Migration Bias in Indirect Estimates of Regional Childhood Mortality Levels", Mathematical Population Studies 6(2):69-93. 1996. CP Schmertmann, "Functional Search in Economics using Genetic Programming", Computational Economics, 9(4):278-298. 1996. CP Schmertmann, "An Introduction to Nonparametric Regression in Demographic Analysis", European Journal of Population 11(2):169-192. 1995. R Hummer, CP Schmertmann, IW Eberstein, and S Kelly, "Retrospective Reports of Pregnancy Wantedness and Birth Outcomes in the U.S.", Social Science Quarterly76(2):402-418. June 1995. JB Elsner and CP Schmertmann, "Assessing Forecast Skill through Cross Validation", Weather and Forecasting, 9(4):619-624. December 1994. CP Schmertmann, TJ Mathews and CB Nam, "Demographic Influences on the Number of Children at School Entry Age, with Examples from Three States," Review of Regional Studies 24(2), 177-194. Fall 1994. CP Schmertmann, "Selectivity Bias Correction Methods in Polychotomous Sample Selection Models," Journal of Econometrics 60:101-132. January-February 1994. JB Elsner and CP Schmertmann, "Improving Extended-Range Seasonal Predictions of Intense Atlantic Hurricane Activity," Weather and Forecasting 8:345-351. September 1993. CP Schmertmann, "Immigrants' Ages and the Structure of Stationary Populations with Below-Replacement Fertility", Demography 29(4):595-612. November 1992. CP Schmertmann, "Estimation of Historical Migration Rates from a Single Census: Interregional Migration in Brazil 1900-1980," Population Studies 46(1):103-120. March 1992.

OTHER PUBLICATIONS JB Elsner,TB Kimberlain, and CP Schmertmann "Poisson Model (with Maximum Likelihood Criterion) Forecasts of Atlantic Hurricane Activity for 1995", NOAA Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin December 1994. JB Elsner, CP Schmertmann, and JC Hess, "Poisson Model (with Maximum Likelihood Criterion) Forecasts of Atlantic Hurricane Activity for 1994", NOAA Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin December 1993.

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JB Elsner and CP Schmertmann, "A Long-Lead Seasonal Forecast of Intense Atlantic Hurricane Activity for 1993,"NOAA Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, March 1993.

MANUSCRIPTS CP Schmertmann and R Rau, “Stationary fertility trajectories and negative population momentum under continually falling mortality”, under review at Demography. CP Schmertmann, E Zagheni, and J Goldstein, “Forecasting cohort childlessness: Bayesian modeling based on historical patterns in the Human Fertility Database”, manuscript in progress for submission to Demography CP Schmertmann and R Rau, “Revivorship and inequality in age at death”, manuscript in progress

PROFESSIONAL PRESENTATIONS International Meetings CP Schmertmann, E Zagheni, J Goldstein and M Myrskyla, “Bayesian Forecasts of Cohort Fertility”. First Human Fertility Database Conference, Rostock, Germany, Nov 2011. CP Schmertmann, SM Cavenaghi, RM Assunção, and JE Potter. “Bayes plus Brass: Automated Estimaton of Thousands of Small-Area Demographic Rates from Sparse and Possibly Defective Data”. Seminar on Current Issues and Frontiers in Demographic Methods. CEDEPLAR. Belo Horizonte, Brazil, Jun 2011. CP Schmertmann, “Immigrants’ Ages, Dependency, and Intergenerational Transfer Systems in Populations with Below-Replacement Fertility”, Vienna Workshop on Optimal Fertility, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Dec 2010. CP Schmertmann, “Continuous Surveys: Challenges and Opportunities”. PAA/Latin American Population Association (ALAP) workshop on the American Community Survey. Havana, Cuba,Nov 2010. CP Schmertmann, RM Assunção, and JE Potter. “Knox meets Cox: Adapting Epidemiological Space-Time Statistics to Demographic Studies”. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP), Marrakech, Morocco, Sep 2009. National Meetings CP Schmertmann and R Rau, “Stationary fertility trajectories and negative population momentum under continually falling mortality”, Population Association of America. San Diego CA April 2015. CP Schmertmann, E Zagheni, and J Goldstein, “Forecasting Cohort Childlessness: Bayesian Modeling Based on Historical Patterns in the Human Fertility Database ”. Population Association of America. New Orleans LA April 2013.

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CP Schmertmann, J Goldstein, M Myrskyla, and E Zagheni, “Forecasting Fertility: Using Bayesian Methods to Extrapolate Trends while Preserving Cohort Features”. Population Association of America. Washington DC March 2011. CP Schmertmann, RM Assuncao, JE Potter, “Adding Structural Variables to Space-Time Interaction Tests: An Application to Fertility Transition in Brazil”. Population Association of America. New York March 2007. JE Potter, RM Assuncao, CP Schmertmann, SM Cavenaghi, “Measuring the Timing and Pace of Fertility Decline in Brazil Using a Bayesian Spatial Estimation Procedure”. Population Association of America. Los Angeles. March 2006. M Sobczak, CG Swicegood, and CP Schmertmann, “Constructing Fertility Measures with the Own-Children Technique: Old Methods for New Data”. Population Association of America. Philadelphia. April 2005. CP Schmertmann, CG Swicegood, and FD Bean , “Reconstructing Past Fertility Schedules for Hard-to-Estimate Groups from CPS Data ”. Population Association of America. Boston. April 2004. SM Cavenaghi, JE Potter, CP Schmertmann, and RM Assunção, “Estimating Total Fertility Rates for Small Areas in Brazil”. Population Association of America. Boston. April 2004 JE Potter, CP Schmertmann, and SM Cavenaghi, “The Spatial Diffusion of Fertility in Brazil: How Large is the Effect?”. Population Association of America. Minneapolis. May 2003. RM Assunção, CP Schmertmann, and SM Cavenaghi, “Bayesian Multivariate Spatial Estimation of Small-Area Fertility Schedules”. Population Association of America. Minneapolis. May 2003. CP Schmertmann, CG Swicegood, and M Sobczak, “Immigration’s Imact on US Fertility: An Exploratory Analysis of Recent Trends”. Population Association of America. Atlanta. May 2002. CP Schmertmann, “A Simple Method for Estimating Age-Specific Rates from Sequential Cross Sections”. Population Association of America. Washington DC, March 2001. JE Potter, CP Schmertmann, and SM Cavenaghi, “Development and Fertility: A New Perspective based on Brazilian Census Data”. Population Association of America. Los Angeles, March 2000. CP Schmertmann, M Boyd, W Serow, and D White, “Mobility and Living Arrangements of the Foreign-Born Elderly in the United States”. Population Association of America, New York, March 1999. CP Schmertmann, “Demographic Research with the American Community Survey: A Preliminary Study of the 1996 Test Site in Brevard County FL”. Population Association of America, Chicago, April 1998. CP Schmertmann,“Early Results from the American Community Survey 1996 Test Site in Brevard County FL”. American Community Survey Conference, US Bureau of the Census, Suitland MD. March 1998. CP Schmertmann, AA Amankwaa, and RD Long, "Three Strikes and You're Out: The Demography of Mandatory Prison Sentencing", Population Association of America, San Francisco, April 1995.

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AA Amankwaa, IW Eberstein, and CP Schmertmann, "Polygyny and Infant Mortality in Western Africa: Evidence from Ghana", Population Association of America, San Francisco, April 1995. JB Elsner, CP Schmertmann, and JC Hess, "Long-Lead Seasonal Predictions of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes Using a Non-Linear Statistical Model," 20th Annual Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Antonio TX, May 1993. Regional Meetings CP Schmertmann, “Bayesian Modeling of Small-Area Mortality Schedules”. Southern Demographic Association, San Antonio TX, Oct 2015. CP Schmertmann, “Controlling for Population Shifts in Space-Time Interaction Measures”. Southern Demographic Association, Montgomery AL, Oct 2013. CP Schmertmann, E Zagheni, and J Goldstein. “Forecasting Cohort Childlessness”, Southern Demographic Association, Williamsburg VA, Oct 2012. CP Schmertmann, E Zagheni, and J Goldstein. “Forecasting Cohort Childlessness”, Southern Demographic Association, Williamsburg VA, Oct 2012. CP Schmertmann, “Bayesian Models for Temporal Smoothing of American Community Survey Estimates”, Southern Demographic Association, Knoxville TN, Oct 2010. CP Schmertmann, “Improving ACS Estimates with Bayesian Models and Priors”, Southern Demographic Association, Galveston TX, Oct 2009.

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CP Schmertmann, “Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation of Fertility Rates for Small Subpopulations from the CPS”. Southern Demographic Association. Greenville SC. October 2008. CP Schmertmann, “Empirical Bayes Estimation and the American Community Survey”.Southern Demographic Association, Birmingham AL, October 2007. CP Schmertmann, RM Assunção, JE Potter, and Suzana Cavenaghi, “Spatial Analysis of Brazil’s Fertility Transition(s)”. Southern Demographic Association, Oxford MS, November 2005. CP Schmertmann, CG Swicegood, and FD Bean , “Immigrant Contributions to US Fertility”. Southern Demographic Association, Hilton Head SC, October 2004. CP Schmertmann, “Not Another Period Fertility Index?!? Combining Total Fertility and Average Parity”. Southern Demographic Association, Arlington VA, October 2003. CP Schmertmann, “A New System of Model Fertility Schedules with Graphically Intuitive Parameters”. Southern Demographic Association, Austin TX, October 2002. RM Assunção, SM Cavenaghi, and CP Schmertmann, “Automating the Production of Small-Area Demographic Estimates from a Census: Municipio-Level Fertility in Brazil”. Southern Demographic Association, Austin TX, October 2002. JE Potter, CP Schmertmann, and SM Cavenaghi, “Spatial Analysis of Brazilian Fertility Change”. Southern Demographic Association, Miami Beach FL, October 2001. CP Schmertmann, “Formal Demographic News You Can Use: A Simple Method for Estimating Age-Specific Rates from Cross Sections”. Southern Demographic Association, New Orleans LA, October 2000. CP Schmertmann and AJ Caetano, “Comparison of Migration Rates Estimated from Last-Move vs. N-Year-Ago Questions”. Southern Demographic Association, San Antonio TX, October 1999. CP Schmertmann, M Boyd, W Serow, and D White, “Mobility, Migration, and Living Arrangements of the Elderly”, Southern Demographic Association, Annapolis MD, October 1998 CP Schmertmann, “Estimating Transition Hazards from Last-Move Data”, Southern Demographic Association, Orlando FL, September 1997 CP Schmertmann, M Boyd, and W Serow, "Migration of the Foreign-Born Elderly 1985-1990," Southern Demographic Association, Memphis TN, October 1996. CP Schmertmann and G Shoultz, "Migration After Abolition: Gross Migration Rates 1880-1940 estimated from 1940 US Census Data," Southern Demographic Association, Richmond VA, October 1995. CP Schmertmann, AA Amankwaa, and RD Long, "Three Strikes and You're Out: The Demography of Mandatory Prison Sentencing", Southern Demographic Association, Atlanta GA, October 1994.

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R Hummer, CP Schmertmann, and IW Eberstein, "Wantedness and Birth Outcomes", Southern Demographic Association, Charleston SC, October 1992 CP Schmertmann, "Immigrants' Ages and the Structure of Stationary Populations with Below-Replacement Fertility", Southern Demographic Association, Jacksonville, FL, October 1991. CP Schmertmann, TJ Mathews, and CB Nam, "The Relative Effects of Fertility, Mortality, and Migration on School Entry Age Populations in U.S. States" . Southern Demographic Association, Jacksonville FL, October 1991.

PRIMARY RESEARCH INTERESTS Statistical Demography Formal Demography Demographic Methods COURSES TAUGHT Graduate Applied Econometrics Econometrics:Simultaneous Equations Economic Development Human Migration Seminar in Population Economics Mathematical Demography Techniques of Migration Analysis Statistical Analysis in Demography Population Data

FSU FSU FSU UC Berkeley FSU FSU CEDEPLAR CEDEPLAR FSU

Undergraduate Economics of Population Economic Demography Introduction to Economic Thinking Introduction to Econometrics Forecasting

FSU UC Berkeley FSU FSU FSU

S90 (in Portuguese) F89 (in Portuguese)

ADVISING Doctoral Committees Junxian Geng Ketsia Dimanche Audrey Murphy Neha Nanda DeAnna Gore Patrick Murphy Kathy Heyman Sarah McKinnon Ali Al-Malki

: Statistics, current : Economics, current : Economics (Chair), F11 : Economics (Chair), F11 : Sociology/Demography, S11 : Economics, Summer 09 : Sociology/Demography : Sociology/Demography [U. of Texas - Austin] : Economics, F07

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Nick Charron Douglas White Elizabeth Grieco Suzana Cavenaghi Shailesh Bandhari Mike DuMond Ida Permana Robert Hummer

: Political Science, S07 : Economics : Sociology, F00 : Sociology/Demography [U. of Texas - Austin], S99 : Economics (Chair), S98 : Economics, S97 : Sociology/Demography, F96 : Sociology/Demography, S93

Masters Committees Laura Cilek Stephen Holzman … Matthew Stoffel Sabrina Webb David Howell John Donohue Kimberly Wicker William Keith Melissa Kressin Nathanael Myers Dillon Simon Travis Tunis Chun-lin Lin John Thrasher Heather Mauney Matthew Hauer Katie Giannamore Carlos Diaz Alexy Ots Brian Gee David Malone George Holeckso Brian Hays Jimmy Pastrano Jason Devine Sean Candrilli Tarteashia Williams Timothy Ogamba Paul Shelton Gerald Shoultz Xiangyun Cao Mary Malval Robert Long EdYoung Riza Badarsah Ron Cossman Chingfa Wu Ade Armando

: Demography, Summer 15 : Demography, Summer 15 : Demography, Summer 11 : Demography, Summer 11 : Demography, Summer 11 : Demography, Summer 11 : Demography, Summer 11 : Demography, Fall 10 : Demography, Summer 10 : Demography, Summer 10 : Demography, Summer 10 : Demography, Spring 10 : Demography, Summer 09 : Demography, Summer 09 : Demography, Summer 08 : Demography, Summer 08 : Demography, Summer 08 : Demography (Chair), Summer 07 : Demography : Economics, S02 : Economics, Summer 00 : Economics, S00 : Demography, F99 : Geography : Demography (Chair), S98 : Economics, F98 : Economics (Chair), Summer 97 : Economics, S97 : Demography, Summer 97 : Demography (Chair), Summer 96 : Demography (Chair), Summer 96 : Demography (Chair), F94 : Demography (Chair), F94 : Demography, S94 : Demography (Chair), F93 : Demography, F93 : Demography, F93 : Demography, S91

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T.J. Mathews

Other Siu-Len Quant Geoffrey Bakker Nathanael Gay Elizabeth Grieco Philippe Accilien Gerald Shoultz Laurie Friel Mike DuMond Olney Daly-Hill

: Demography, F91

: Directed Independent Study (population aging and trade), S08 : Undergraduate Honors Thesis (Chair), Summer 07 : Directed Independent Study (advanced mathematical demography), S98 : Directed Independent Study (readings in economics of migration), S97 : Directed Independent Study (readings in population and development), S96 : Directed Research (techniques for estimating migration rates), S95 : Undergraduate DIS (population and environment in China), F95 : Directed Independent Study (readings in population economics), S95 : Directed Independent Study (multistate methods for study of disability), S92

DEPARTMENTAL/UNIVERSITY SERVICE FSU Population Center Executive Committee (2007-2011) Admissions Committee (2007-2011) Associate Director (1998-present) Co-organizer of Population Center seminar series (1994-99, intermittent) FSU Department of Economics Executive Committee (1994-95 & 1995-96) Master's Comprehensive Exam Committee (1992-1993, Chair Fall 93) Econometrics Field Exam Committee (1994-present) Economic Development Field Exam Committee (1991-present) Population Economics Field Exam Committee (1991-present) International Economics Field Exam Committee (1995, 1996) Computational Economics Field Exam Committee (1995) FSU College of Social Sciences Information and Data Processing Committee (1992-) Policy and Academic Affairs Committee (1997-98, 2004-5, 2009-10) Promotion and Tenure Committee (2008-10) University-Level University Teaching Incentive Program (TIP) Selection Committee (1996) Promotion and Tenure Committee (2009) Academic Honor Committee (2013-)

OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITY Editor in Chief:

Demographic Research (Oct 2011-present)

Associate Editor:

Demographic Research (2008-11)

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Editorial Boards:

Demography (-2009) Population Research and Policy Review (-2008)

Referee: Journal of Development Economics, Demography, Mathematical Population Studies, International Migration Review, Journal of Productivity Analysis, Research on Aging, Papers in Regional Science, Demographic Research, Population Studies, Adoption Quarterly Grant Reviewer:

National Institutes of Health, Social Sciences and Population Panel National Science Foundation

Professional Committees:

Census Advisory Committee for Professional Associations (PAA) US Census Scientific Advisory Committee (2009-12).

PROFESSIONAL MEMBERSHIPS American Economic Association Population Association of America Southern Demographic Association (member, Board of Directors 1995-96, 1997-2000; Vice President 2000; President-Elect 2001; President 2002) American Statistical Association LANGUAGES Portuguese Spanish

: very proficient (able to teach university-level courses, review professional papers, etc.) : fair reading and listening comprehension