Opportunities for green jobs & a sustainable future in India’s energy scenario Ritu Mathur, TERI
National Conference on Green Jobs 24-25 June, 2010 New Delhi
Current Energy Status
Installed generating capacity ~ 150,000 MW (~0.13 kW/capita)
Per capita consumption of electricity of 733 units
North America: 13994, Europe: 6009, World average: 2596 (2005 data)
Suffering from huge shortages (2008/09) of
~ 11% in energy terms
~ 12% in peak energy
Over 400 million people with no access to electricity
90% of rural India dependent on traditional fuels for cooking
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9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
1.2
0.8 0.6 0.4
H D I in d e x
1
Huge population with unmet demands Developmental goals and energy access to all High targets for economic growth How much?
0.2
0
KgoE
HDI
Linear (HDI )
Population in 2031/32 of 1.4 billion Rate of Growth of GDP of 8% per annum Structural shifts towards services Energy to All Lifestyle improvements
Reference Energy Demand Projections Commercial Energy Requirements in Reference Scenario 2400
2000
1600
mtoe
E n e r g y c o n s u m p t io n p e r c a p i t a (K g o E )
Increase in commercial energy needs – an inevitability !
1200
800
400
0 2001/02
2006/07
2011/12
2016/17
2021/22
2026/27
2031/32
year Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Hydro (large & small) Total
Nuclear
Solar & Wind
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Future Challenges
Concerns of:
Energy access Energy import vulnerabilities Climate change
What then are the options & what are the implications of adopting alternative choices to fuel the country’s energy needs? Scenario based illustrative projections
So What Shape Can The Future Take? Scenario names
Storyline
Reference Energy Scenario (RES)
Development continues along current paths with autonomous efficiency improvements taking place where feasible and increase in use of renewable energy carrying on at the same pace; and defined policy priorities being implemented
Sustainable Energy Scenario (SES)
A determined effort is provided here for efficiency improvements both on the supply and demand sides; an accelerated push for renewable energy, nuclear and new technologies. Energy Security concerns are paramount in this scenario.
Global Equity Scenario (GES)
This scenario honours the Prime Minister of India’s commitment that India’s per capita carbon emissions would never exceed those of the developed world and it is optimistically assumed here that the developed world would be able to bring down its emissions to a level of 2 tonnes/capita by 2030 as indicated by IPCC AR4.
Stringent Mitigation Scenario (SMS)
This scenario considers that India takes on an extremely aggressive approach to energy self-sufficiency also resulting in even more stringent emissions reductions.
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Commercial energy consumption
Primary commercial energy supply2031
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Fossil import dependency
Large energy import infrastructure requirements by 2031 in the RES Coal import: ~1400 million tonnes, Oil import: ~750 million tonnes
Power generation capacity mix 2031
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Main Inferences
Directional path of the Global Equity Scenario (GES) most attractive, balances multiple considerations of
minimising energy imports optimising use of India’s substantial renewable energy resources cost effectively, and efficient use of capital.
Macro Inferences
Key transformations with respect to electricity:
Substitution of fossil based thermal energy with electrical energy to the extent technologically possible across all sectors of the economy (eg. transport)
Generation of electricity from renewable sources
Freezing coal based capacity additions to currently committed levels and phasing out obsolete plants.
Move to decentralised electricity generation on a large scale for rural electrification
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Macro Inferences
Key transformations with respect to the oil sector
Enhanced capacities in the railways, mass transit and public transport systems. Substituting petrol and diesel driven vehicles with hybrid and battery operated vehicles Maximising the substitution of petro-fuels with bio-fuels
Key transformations with respect to the coal sector:
Accelerating utilisation of India’s domestic coal resources Rejection of additional thermal power generation capacity based on imported coal
Macro Inferences
Significant short term gains (nearly 30%) are possible by increasing energy efficiencies along the entire value chain.
What India does in the short term would pave the way for realising its long term opportunities:
creating a comfort level with emerging technologies (manufacturing and market creation experience at appropriate scales, human resources, regulatory frameworks etc.);
investing in identified R,D&D needs
creating a conducive environment for transformational changes
awareness generation, education, appropriate policies/regulations for bringing about behavioural changes
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Scope for Green jobs
Green Jobs are a prerequisite to achieve green economy
Climate Change Challenge calls for large transitions & offers several opportunities for direct & indirect employment generation, skill development, new/green job opportunities
Scope of green jobs:
Mission on Solar & other renewables including biofuels Green Buildings Public transport & infrastructure development Energy efficiency LABL
TECHNOLOGY CYCLE AND EMPLOYMENT CREATION
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Employment Estimates in the Renewable Energy sector, Global and Selected Countries, 2006. Renewable Energy Source
World/ Selected Countries
Employment
Wind
world
300,000
Solar PV
world
115,000
Solar thermal
China, Europe, USA
624,000+
Biomass/ Biofuels
Brazil, USA, China, Germany
1,174,000
Hydro Power
Europe, USA
39,000
Geothermal
USA, Germany
25,000
Renewable , combined
2,277,000
Source: UNEP Background paper on green Jobs
SOLAR Table 6: Domestic Job Creation Potential In Solar Photovoltaic
Study
Low Growth Scenario 2020 2030 2050
Moderate Growth Scenario 2020 2030 2050
High Growth Scenario 2020 2030 2050
Renewable Energy Policy Project, 2001
3,271
106,850
6,543
13,085
427,400
665,000
Greenpeace 6,635 2001
26,540
1,117,600
2,060,000
279,400
234,350
4,214,000
2,150,000
166,250
515,000
Greenpeace and the EPIA, 2007 58,588 1,053,500
213,700
558,800 13,270
537,500
332,500
117,175
1,030,000
2,107,000
1,075,000
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ESTIMATES WIND ENERGY
TIME
2020
2030
2050
RANGE
6929243,225
8,929225,975
9039225,975
SOLAR ENERGY
TIME
2020
2030
2050
RANGE
3,271234,350
106,850 – 42,14,000
166,25021,50,000
WIND: HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
*A similar trend is observed for moderate and low growth scenarios. However, the peak shifts i.e. for moderate growth employment potential peaks at 2030 while for low growth it peaks at 2042.
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Bio-Energy
140 million hectares of land not used productively Placing ~ 40 million ha of such land under energy plantation can generate ~ 280 million units of electricity annually through 17000 biomass gasifiers of 10 KW each. Avoided capacity of approximately 300 MW (including T&D losses) of conventional power plants
OTHER ESTIMATES
India could generate 900,000 jobs by 2025 in biomass gasification of which 300,000 would be in the manufacturing of stoves and 600,000 in areas such as processing into briquettes and pellets and the fuel supply chain (UNEP, 2008)
National Mission on Decentralized Biomass Energy has a potential to create around 10 million jobs in ten years
According to UNEP (2008) the introduction of 6,100 new CNG buses in New Delhi between late 2007 and 2009 was expected to create 18,000 new jobs.
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LaBL - Few facts 1.6 billion people
lack access to electricity; 1 in 4 are in India
76 million rural households
of the total 138 million in India have no access to electricity
65 million
of the above use kerosene for lighting
2.3 billion litres per year
Kerosene used for lighting by 65 million households @ average monthly consumption of 3 litres per household
Approx 5 million ton CO2
emitted to the atmosphere by the above
About Rs. 70 billion
is burnt in smoke every year in wick lamps and kerosene lanterns
Introducing LaBL – Power to Empower
Setting up solar charging stations in villages and renting solar lanterns to displace kerosene lanterns and dibris for better illumination & smoke free indoor environment Providing solar lanterns to facilitate and advance rural livelihood generation
•
Identifying & training entrepreneurs to operate charging stations, provide repair & maintenance services
•
Facilitating creation of energy enterprises on supply and demand side
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LaBL - Prospects for Green jobs Direct employment
LaBL has been able to generate direct livelihood for 160 entrepreneurs as charging station operators across 160 villages in 12 states of India, of which 20% are women LaBL is setting up Technology Resource Centres (TRCs) for every 20 charging station that would cater to after sales services in these villages. LaBL envisages setting up 40,000 charging stations by 2012 40,000 green jobs (40,000 entrepreneurs)
Indirect opportunities
Long term implications; extended working hours, livelihood creation, economic enhancement, local employment
15%-20% of the lanterns rented are used for other livelihood options like weaving, sewing, vending, running tuition centres etc. Of the 8000 lanterns disseminated so far, 1200-1600 lanterns are being used for these activities. LaBL envisages disseminating 2,000,000 solar lanterns by 2012 3,00,000 – 4,00,000 lanterns likely to be used for other livelihood activities by 2012.
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Green Buildings
Annual increase in demand 5.4 billion units needing 5500 MW per 5 year plan period Green buildings savings
Investing in Green Buildings will reduce subsidies
30% in residential buildings 40 % in commercial buildings Lower demand for diesel based captive generation Avoid high-cost traded electricity
Re-directing this savings as a sustainability incentive would cover 30 – 70 % of incremental costs
Other areas
Solar components and other renewables -Jobs in R&D, innovative technology development and adaptation to suit Indian requirements Public transport and infrastructure development Greater involvement of private sector/ corporates & businesses
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Challenges & strategies
Challenges
Capacity building Transaction costs
Strategies
Environmental and social full-cost pricing of energy and material inputs necessary to discourage unsustainable production and consumption & move to green economy
Appropriate policy instruments and incentives should be in place to strategize the creation of green jobs and drive the economy in the direction of socio economic development.
Government policy instruments may include: financial measures-public investments, subsidy shifts, new R&D priorities and ecological tax reform. Non financial measures- extended producer responsibility laws, eco-labelling.
Effective green investment strategy, green R&D and technology transfer can aid in creation of enormous green job/ cleaner livelihood opportunities
Conclusion
Creation of green jobs/ cleaner livelihood opportunities is imperative to achieve a sustainable socio economic growth. Creation of green job in one sector of the economy has the potential to “radiate” across large sections of economy thus greening commensurately large sections of the total workforce. India should holistically focus on creating green jobs in various sectors of growth such as energy efficient buildings, transportation and agriculture sector. Suitable policies and regulatory framework should be in place to realize the dream of India achieving sustainable development.
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RECOMMENDATIONS Integrated
design and targeted
implementation of policies Capacity
building and skill development
Mobilization
of financial resources
Thank You
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