Cross-country Comparison of Farm Size Distribution
Cross-country Comparison of Farm Size Distribution Shingo Kimura and Karine Souvanheuane OECD Network for Farm-level Analysis 4 June 2015
Current st...
Cross-country Comparison of Farm Size Distribution Shingo Kimura and Karine Souvanheuane OECD Network for Farm-level Analysis 4 June 2015
Current status of the project • Revised TOR and excel template extending to the livestock sector was discussed and circulated • Initial results were presented at the joint-seminar last November • Scoping paper for the OECD report was discussed at APM last month
OECD Report on “Cross-country Comparison of Farm-size Distribution” • Develop simple, synthetic and comparable indicators of farm-size distribution based on TOR • Compare changes in farm-size distribution in selected agricultural sectors across OECD member countries for the last few decades • Discuss a set of factors driving changes in farm size distribution based on the existing literature
Comparisons of three summary statistics Land distributed equally
Source: Presentation by Heiko Hansen
Land distributed unequally across farms
Proposed statistics to analyze the distribution of farm-size • Summary statistics of farm-size distribution - Mean (size per farm) - Unweighted quartile (25 percentile, median and 75 percentile) - Farm-size weighted quartile (25, 50 and 75 percentile) - Gini coefficient
• Additional statistics - Total area of land, GAO and farm number for each quartile group and left out population
Outline of the TOR • Population - All farm types - Specialist farm type: more than 50% from selected commodity
• Time periods - every 5 years between 1980-2010 (can be extended further)
• Data source - census data is recommended, but survey data such is accepted
- possibility of estimating the weighted median by interpolation from percentage distributions in the absence of farm-level data
Sector coverage and farm size definition Farm type
Farm size definition
All type of farms
Cultivated area of farmland and GAO
Field crop farms
Cultivated area of farmland
Dairy farm
Average number of dairy cows during calendar year
Beef cattle farm (including both rearing and fattening)
Average number of cattle excluding dairy cows during calendar year, converted to livestock units
Hog farm
Average number of pigs including piglets, breeding sows, pigs for fattening and other pigs during calendar year, converted to livestock units.
Broiler farm
Average number of broilers and other table chickens during calendar year
Egg farm
Average number of laying hens during calendar year
Market share of the largest 25% of farm in 2010: Field crop farm % Market share the largest 25% of field crop farms in 2010 Share in cropland use
Share in gross output value
Gini coefficient
Canada
57
49
0.46
Estonia
70
71
0.40
France
n.a.
n.a.
0.53
Germany
70
63
0.60
Italy
70
63
n.a.
Latvia
83
82
0.74
Netherlands
73
Japan
71
0.63 76
0.61
Comparison of cropland size in 2010: Field crop farms Mean 0
Mid-point (hectare-weighted median)
200
400
600
763
Canada 94
United States
444 120
Latvia
349 121
Germany France
149 26 61
Netherlands
Japan
472
133
Estonia
Italy
800
18 45 2 5
239
1000
1200 1,076
Evolution of mid-point cropland size (ha) 1980
1985
Canada United States
239
251
1990
1995
2000
87
88
621
774
929
1 076
291
324
384
453
486
152
266
349
130
140
149
252
239
33
45
321
472
90
110
Germany Italy Latvia Netherlands
Japan
35
2010
532
Estonia France
2005
37
42
44
46
53
61
2
2
2
2
3
5
* For France, data for 1979 is taken for 1980 and 1988 for 1990. Mid-point cropland size for 1985, 1995 and 2005 was calculated as the average of the mid-point cropland size of the previous and following year.
Annualized % growth rate of mid-point cropland size 1980-85
1985-90
Canada United States
1.0
3.0
1990-95
19952000
0.4
0.3
2005-10
3.1
4.5
3.7
3.0
2.2
3.5
3.4
1.4
11.9
5.6
1.4
1.3
Estonia
France*
2000-05
4.1
3.4
Germany
-1.0
Italy
6.8
Latvia
8.0
Netherlands Japan
1.5
2.4
1.0
0.7
3.2
2.6
1.6
2.1
1.9
5.7
9.7
* For France, data for 1979 is taken for 1980 and 1988 for 1990. Mid-point cropland size for 1985, 1995 and 2005 was calculated as the average of the mid-point cropland size of the previous and following year.
Estimating weighted median farm-size from published EU farm structure survey Calculated % distribution in the Netherlands in 2010 Farm size class
% share in agricultural holdings
% share in UAA
less than 2 ha
11.3
0.5
From 2 to 4.9 ha
15.6
2.0
From 5 to 9.9 ha
14.5
4.0
From 10 to 19.9 ha
15.3
8.4
From 20 to 29.9 ha
10.7
10.0
From 30 to 49.9 ha
16.5
24.4
From 50 to 99.9 ha
12.9
32.5
3.1
18.3
100 ha or over
Unweighted median between 10-19.9 ha
Weighted median between 50-99.9 ha
Estimation using polynomial interpolation =14.9 ha
=50.6 ha
Estimated Gini Coefficient = 0.56
Evolution of estimated mid-point cropland size from published data in EU 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Belgium
24
28
31
36
44
52
60
Denmark
35
43
50
65
80
104
149
Germany
26
29
83
101
117
334
314
Estonia Ireland
33
34
37
40
45
46
51
France
43
49
60
79
90
105
135
Italy
20
20
21
25
26
30
35
24
33
82
Latvia
Netherlands United Kingdom
23
26
30
32
36
45
51
161
169
170
176
202
203
263
Annualized % growth rate of estimated mid-point cropland size in EU 19801985
19901985-1990 1995
19952000
20002005
20052010
Belgium
2.7
2.4
3.3
3.9
3.4
2.8
Denmark
4.5
2.9
5.3
4.4
5.3
7.5
Germany
2.6
4.0
3.0
Estonia
-1.2
Ireland
0.2
2.1
1.3
2.7
0.2
2.1
France
2.6
3.8
5.7
2.7
3.1
5.2
Italy
0.1
1.8
2.8
1.3
2.6
3.2
6.6
19.7
Latvia Netherlands
2.6
2.6
1.6
2.4
4.6
2.2
United Kingdom
1.0
0.1
0.7
2.8
0.1
5.4
The evolution of dairy herd size in 19802010 Evolution of mid-point herd size 1980-2010 1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
80
101
140
275
570
900
262
246
363
Germany
63
67
Latvia
19
25
73
88
United States Estonia
Netherlands
57
52
58
62
Growth rates of herd size expansion for Dairy farm Average annual growth rate of mid-point dairy herd size (%) 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 United States
4.8
6.7
14.5
Estonia
19952000
2000-05
15.7
9.6
-1.2
8.1
Germany
1.3
Latvia
5.7
Netherlands
-1.8
2.2
1.3
3.3
3.8
The evolution of Hog, Broiler and Egg farm size in the Netherlands (1985-2010) Mid-point number of animals
Hog Broiler Egg
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
513
615
731
960
1205
1 980
38 000
43 000
49 000
63 000
79 000
100 000
34 000
40 300
43 740
61 000
58 350
74 000
Annualized growth rate 1985-90 Hog
Broiler Egg
1990-95
1995-2000 2000-05
2005-10
3.7
3.5
5.6
4.7
10.4
2.5
2.6
5.2
4.6
4.8
3.5
1.7
6.9
-0.9
4.9
Some preliminary findings • Hectare-weighted median provides good comparison of farm-size distribution across countries and overtime. • Land and animal concentrate more in large-size farms in most of the countries, while small-size farms remain. • Speed of concentration and specialization is accelerating in recent decade in many countries across agricultural sectors. • There are multiple factors driving structural change…
Potential factors driving structural change The report would discuss a set of driving factor based on the existing literature. • Change in industrial structure - Shift of labour force away from agriculture - Land factor becomes less expensive relative to labour
• Technological development - Mechanization, chemical pesticide, GM seeds and IT technology
• Change in farm organization - Specialization, outsourcing contract and demographic change
• Change in policy environment - Crop insurance, quota regulation and direct payments
Next steps • Completion of database this summer (Deadline of data submission: 31 July 2015)
• Any existing literature on the factors driving structural change in your country is appreciated • First draft report will be expected for November APM meeting