Cross-country Comparison of Farm Size Distribution

Cross-country Comparison of Farm Size Distribution Shingo Kimura and Karine Souvanheuane OECD Network for Farm-level Analysis 4 June 2015 Current st...
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Cross-country Comparison of Farm Size Distribution Shingo Kimura and Karine Souvanheuane OECD Network for Farm-level Analysis 4 June 2015

Current status of the project • Revised TOR and excel template extending to the livestock sector was discussed and circulated • Initial results were presented at the joint-seminar last November • Scoping paper for the OECD report was discussed at APM last month

OECD Report on “Cross-country Comparison of Farm-size Distribution” • Develop simple, synthetic and comparable indicators of farm-size distribution based on TOR • Compare changes in farm-size distribution in selected agricultural sectors across OECD member countries for the last few decades • Discuss a set of factors driving changes in farm size distribution based on the existing literature

Comparisons of three summary statistics Land distributed equally

Source: Presentation by Heiko Hansen

Land distributed unequally across farms

Proposed statistics to analyze the distribution of farm-size • Summary statistics of farm-size distribution - Mean (size per farm) - Unweighted quartile (25 percentile, median and 75 percentile) - Farm-size weighted quartile (25, 50 and 75 percentile) - Gini coefficient

• Additional statistics - Total area of land, GAO and farm number for each quartile group and left out population

Outline of the TOR • Population - All farm types - Specialist farm type: more than 50% from selected commodity

• Time periods - every 5 years between 1980-2010 (can be extended further)

• Data source - census data is recommended, but survey data such is accepted

- possibility of estimating the weighted median by interpolation from percentage distributions in the absence of farm-level data

Sector coverage and farm size definition Farm type

Farm size definition

All type of farms

Cultivated area of farmland and GAO

Field crop farms

Cultivated area of farmland

Dairy farm

Average number of dairy cows during calendar year

Beef cattle farm (including both rearing and fattening)

Average number of cattle excluding dairy cows during calendar year, converted to livestock units

Hog farm

Average number of pigs including piglets, breeding sows, pigs for fattening and other pigs during calendar year, converted to livestock units.

Broiler farm

Average number of broilers and other table chickens during calendar year

Egg farm

Average number of laying hens during calendar year

Market share of the largest 25% of farm in 2010: Field crop farm % Market share the largest 25% of field crop farms in 2010 Share in cropland use

Share in gross output value

Gini coefficient

Canada

57

49

0.46

Estonia

70

71

0.40

France

n.a.

n.a.

0.53

Germany

70

63

0.60

Italy

70

63

n.a.

Latvia

83

82

0.74

Netherlands

73

Japan

71

0.63 76

0.61

Comparison of cropland size in 2010: Field crop farms Mean 0

Mid-point (hectare-weighted median)

200

400

600

763

Canada 94

United States

444 120

Latvia

349 121

Germany France

149 26 61

Netherlands

Japan

472

133

Estonia

Italy

800

18 45 2 5

239

1000

1200 1,076

Evolution of mid-point cropland size (ha) 1980

1985

Canada United States

239

251

1990

1995

2000

87

88

621

774

929

1 076

291

324

384

453

486

152

266

349

130

140

149

252

239

33

45

321

472

90

110

Germany Italy Latvia Netherlands

Japan

35

2010

532

Estonia France

2005

37

42

44

46

53

61

2

2

2

2

3

5

* For France, data for 1979 is taken for 1980 and 1988 for 1990. Mid-point cropland size for 1985, 1995 and 2005 was calculated as the average of the mid-point cropland size of the previous and following year.

Annualized % growth rate of mid-point cropland size 1980-85

1985-90

Canada United States

1.0

3.0

1990-95

19952000

0.4

0.3

2005-10

3.1

4.5

3.7

3.0

2.2

3.5

3.4

1.4

11.9

5.6

1.4

1.3

Estonia

France*

2000-05

4.1

3.4

Germany

-1.0

Italy

6.8

Latvia

8.0

Netherlands Japan

1.5

2.4

1.0

0.7

3.2

2.6

1.6

2.1

1.9

5.7

9.7

* For France, data for 1979 is taken for 1980 and 1988 for 1990. Mid-point cropland size for 1985, 1995 and 2005 was calculated as the average of the mid-point cropland size of the previous and following year.

Estimating weighted median farm-size from published EU farm structure survey Calculated % distribution in the Netherlands in 2010 Farm size class

% share in agricultural holdings

% share in UAA

less than 2 ha

11.3

0.5

From 2 to 4.9 ha

15.6

2.0

From 5 to 9.9 ha

14.5

4.0

From 10 to 19.9 ha

15.3

8.4

From 20 to 29.9 ha

10.7

10.0

From 30 to 49.9 ha

16.5

24.4

From 50 to 99.9 ha

12.9

32.5

3.1

18.3

100 ha or over

Unweighted median between 10-19.9 ha

Weighted median between 50-99.9 ha

Estimation using polynomial interpolation =14.9 ha

=50.6 ha

Estimated Gini Coefficient = 0.56

Evolution of estimated mid-point cropland size from published data in EU 1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Belgium

24

28

31

36

44

52

60

Denmark

35

43

50

65

80

104

149

Germany

26

29

83

101

117

334

314

Estonia Ireland

33

34

37

40

45

46

51

France

43

49

60

79

90

105

135

Italy

20

20

21

25

26

30

35

24

33

82

Latvia

Netherlands United Kingdom

23

26

30

32

36

45

51

161

169

170

176

202

203

263

Annualized % growth rate of estimated mid-point cropland size in EU 19801985

19901985-1990 1995

19952000

20002005

20052010

Belgium

2.7

2.4

3.3

3.9

3.4

2.8

Denmark

4.5

2.9

5.3

4.4

5.3

7.5

Germany

2.6

4.0

3.0

Estonia

-1.2

Ireland

0.2

2.1

1.3

2.7

0.2

2.1

France

2.6

3.8

5.7

2.7

3.1

5.2

Italy

0.1

1.8

2.8

1.3

2.6

3.2

6.6

19.7

Latvia Netherlands

2.6

2.6

1.6

2.4

4.6

2.2

United Kingdom

1.0

0.1

0.7

2.8

0.1

5.4

The evolution of dairy herd size in 19802010 Evolution of mid-point herd size 1980-2010 1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

80

101

140

275

570

900

262

246

363

Germany

63

67

Latvia

19

25

73

88

United States Estonia

Netherlands

57

52

58

62

Growth rates of herd size expansion for Dairy farm Average annual growth rate of mid-point dairy herd size (%) 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 United States

4.8

6.7

14.5

Estonia

19952000

2000-05

15.7

9.6

-1.2

8.1

Germany

1.3

Latvia

5.7

Netherlands

-1.8

2.2

1.3

3.3

3.8

The evolution of Hog, Broiler and Egg farm size in the Netherlands (1985-2010) Mid-point number of animals

Hog Broiler Egg

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

513

615

731

960

1205

1 980

38 000

43 000

49 000

63 000

79 000

100 000

34 000

40 300

43 740

61 000

58 350

74 000

Annualized growth rate 1985-90 Hog

Broiler Egg

1990-95

1995-2000 2000-05

2005-10

3.7

3.5

5.6

4.7

10.4

2.5

2.6

5.2

4.6

4.8

3.5

1.7

6.9

-0.9

4.9

Some preliminary findings • Hectare-weighted median provides good comparison of farm-size distribution across countries and overtime. • Land and animal concentrate more in large-size farms in most of the countries, while small-size farms remain. • Speed of concentration and specialization is accelerating in recent decade in many countries across agricultural sectors. • There are multiple factors driving structural change…

Potential factors driving structural change The report would discuss a set of driving factor based on the existing literature. • Change in industrial structure - Shift of labour force away from agriculture - Land factor becomes less expensive relative to labour

• Technological development - Mechanization, chemical pesticide, GM seeds and IT technology

• Change in farm organization - Specialization, outsourcing contract and demographic change

• Change in policy environment - Crop insurance, quota regulation and direct payments

Next steps • Completion of database this summer (Deadline of data submission: 31 July 2015)

• Any existing literature on the factors driving structural change in your country is appreciated • First draft report will be expected for November APM meeting

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