CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group – Economics ● May 2014 (March 2014 data) Highlights  Current data shows a net reduction of 48 CUs in th...
Author: Kathryn Cameron
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CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group – Economics ● May 2014 (March 2014 data)

Highlights  Current data shows a net reduction of 48 CUs in the first quarter of 2014 and the loss of 261 CUs since March 2013. CUNA estimates show 6,747 CUs at the end of March. Our 2014 Forecast calls for consolidation rates to increase with losses averaging 316 CUs per year through 2018. This implies a 23% decline in the CU count from the end of 2013.  Savings and asset growth is holding below long-term trend levels as CUs maintain rates paid on deposits near historical lows. Expect this trend to continue until CUs can consistently hold the loan-to-share ratio above 74%. CU system assets finished March at $1.12 trillion, up 3.8% during the past year.  The trend of increasing loan growth continues. The 8.6% annual gain translates into almost $53 billion more in member loans. Thanks to record vehicle loan portfolio gains, CU growth is dominating U.S. nonstudent loan, installment credit growth. Our outlook remains positive.  Membership was up 457,000 in March. At 99.4 million, total membership is up 1.0 million YTD and 2.8 million since March 2013. Expect gains to continue, but at a more sustainable pace. We are forecasting 105.6 million memberships by the end of 2018.  The industry capital-to-asset ratio held steady at 10.3%, and capital growth remains above 5.0%. Healthy YTD loan growth boosted the loan-toshare ratio to 69.4%, up 305 basis points from March 2013, but significantly below its pre-recession average. The loan delinquency rate continues to slip lower and now stands at 0.902%. This key credit quality measure has remained below 1.0% in each month of 2014.

ENVIRONMENT

Based on expected data revisions, it is very likely the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter versus the 0.1% growth reported April 30. The good news is the first quarter is behind us, and some of the weakness will be made up in the second quarter. Make no mistake; the U.S. economy is not poised on the path of a robust recovery. Modest annual growth is all we should assume. Without bias (I don’t need to sell soup on a business news network or generate stock trades for my brokerage firm), my reading of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Chair Janet Yellen, is they remain very concerned about employment conditions overall and real disposable income growth (after adjusting for Affordable Care Act distortions), which support economic growth. Expect the tapering of asset purchases by the FOMC to continue, but we will need to see much more evidence than a favorable unemployment rate before the fed funds rate begins to move up. Total Lending At the end of March, total loans topped $669 billion. The $5 billion gain in March brought YTD growth up to 1.4%, more than six times higher than same period 2013 results. The bars in Figure 1 indicate total loan growth has steadily improved to its current 8.6% level. This is the strongest growth performance in almost eight years.  The primary growth driver is vehicle loans. The 12.9% annual growth (top line in Figure 1) accounted for almost 45% of all CU loan growth since March 2013 and 69% on a YTD basis.  1st mortgages (42% of all loans) accounted for 46% of annual loan growth and 50% YTD. When combined with home equity and 2nd mortgage loans, the real estate secured loan portfolio is expanding at a 6.9% annual pace, as shown by the blue line in Figure 1.  Member business loans (MBLs) are up a solid 13.3% year-over-year.  Our 2014 Forecast calls for total loan growth to exceed its historical rate of expansion through 2018. This assumes the consumer economy continues to grow as forecast and interest rates move up in an orderly fashion.  

Loan Growth Trends March 2014 15

Total Loans Vehicle Loans Real Estate Secured Loans

Percent

12.9%

10

8.6% 6.9%

5 0 -5 -10 10 12

11 06

11 12

12 06

12 12

13 06

Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics

Figure 1

13 12

14 06

14 12

Credit Union Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) CUCIC finished March at almost $270 billion. This reflects a healthy 1.6% YTD increase and a 9.9% gain since March 2013, as shown by the blue line in Figure 2. Just three years ago this portfolio was contracting; two years ago we were highlighting 2.2% annual growth. The 2014 Forecast calls for CUCIC growth to remain historically strong through 2017.  Just slightly more than 144% of the YTD increase in CUCIC is attributable to gains in total vehicle loans, and 97% of the annual gain came from vehicle loan portfolio expansion. While down on a YTD basis, credit cards and unsecured loans are up 6.9% and 8.7% respectively year-over-year.  Since the low point of the recession cycle (March 2011 for CUCIC), CUs have grown installment credit by $52 billion or 24%. Looking at the broader market, but excluding CUs and Government Student Loans (GSLs), during the same period we see total growth of just 3%. CUs are in a consumer installment credit lending recovery and, without GSLs, the rest of the market isn’t, as shown by the green line in Figure 2.  CUs hold an 8.7% of all CIC and 5.2% of credit card balances. Both shares are up nicely since March 2013.

Growth in Consumer Installment Credit March 2014 Percent

12

CUs 9.9%

8 Total Market Excl. CUs 5.6%

4 0

Total Market Excl. CUs & GSLs 2.1%

-4 -8 10 12

11 06

11 12

12 06

12 12

13 06

13 12

14 06

14 12

Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics

Figure 2 Vehicle Loans Thirteen years ago was the last time total vehicle loan growth was above March’s 12.9% increase. Several factors contributed to this recovery. Stronger employment and income growth, the recovery in new light vehicle sales, fewer financing subsidies from vehicle manufacturers and growing replacement demand due to an aging vehicle fleet, just to name a few. CUs positioned themselves well for this recovery by maintaining consistent underwriting standards, expanded point-of-purchase financing options, and continuously lowered rates on new and used vehicle loans.  The national average new vehicle loan rate was 3.04% in March, down 9 basis points (bp) YTD, 29 bp during the past year and 336 bp (52%) since the beginning of the recession. March’s used vehicle loan rate was 3.72%, and it has declined in a pattern very similar to new vehicle loan rates. The right graphic in Figure 3 shows the remarkable growth renaissance in new vehicle loans and the consistently improving used vehicle portfolio growth rate.

Vehicle Lending Growth Comparisons Annual Growth 14

Percent

March 2014

CU New vs. Used Vehicle 20

12.9%

12

Percent New 15.2%

15

10 10

8 6

5

4

0

2

Used 11.6%

-5

0 -10

-2

-15

-4 -6 10 12

-20

11 12

12 12

13 12

14 12

10 12

11 12

Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics

Figure 3 2 ● Credit Union Trends Report

12 12

13 12

Real Estate-Secured Lending – 1st Mortgages and Other Real Estate Through the first quarter of 2014, the real estate secured (RE) loan portfolio is up $4.1 billion (1.2%). The 1st mortgage portfolio is up $$4.6 billion (1.7%) and home equity / 2nd’s are fractionally lower. On a year-over-year basis, the total RE portfolio is up almost $23 billion or 6.9%, as shown by the red line in Figure 4. Current portfolio growth is 1.2 percentage points (pp) above 2013 and 4.8 pp above the average annual gain during the previous five years.  On an annual basis, fixed-rate 1st mortgages continue to show the strongest growth, up 10.2%. When combined with adjustable-rate 1st’s, the total portfolio segment is up 9.5% since March 2013 (see blue line in Figure 4). This is the best growth performance since April 2009.  While the combined home equity / 2nd mortgage portfolio is down 2.1% year-over-year (burgundy dashed line in Figure 4), the rate of contraction is shrinking. We have begun to see some growth in the home equity component, but 2nd mortgages will continue to decline due to payoffs and amortization.  Our 2014 Forecast shows RE portfolio growth improving to above 7.0% in 2014. Growth is forecast to slow in 2015 and 2016 as longer-term interest rates rise and CUs shed some fixed-rate 1st mortgage holdings to reduce interest rate risk.  Currently, RE loans equal 52.4% of all loans, down 0.8 pp from March 2013 and 31.2% of assets, up 0.8 pp from March 2013.

Selected CU Real Estate Growth Rates 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10

March 2014

Percent

1st Mortgages 9.5% Total RE 6.9%

Home Equity/Seconds -2.1%

10 12

11 06

11 12

12 06

12 12

13 06

13 12

14 06

14 12

Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics

Figure 4 Surplus Funds (Cash + Investments) Surplus funds finished March at roughly $410 billion, down $1.5 billion for the month as loan demand outpaced deposit inflows. During the past 12 months, surplus funds are down $10 billion. This reduction primarily reflects an increase in loans outstanding, but also $4.9 billion in additional borrowing.  The surplus funds to asset ratio currently stands at 36.5%, down 2.5 pp from its March 2013 level, an improvement which should translate into better net interest margins. The CU system continues to have plenty of liquidity. During the past 10 years, the surplus funds to asset ratio averaged 31.4% and for the five years before the recession it was down to 29.6%. CUNA estimates also show the share of surplus funds with a maturity of one year or less is now 44.9%, down 2.7 pp from March 2013. This too should help net interest margins. Savings and Assets The left graphic in Figure 5 shows annual growth for savings and assets is down significantly in March. A look back at March 2013 indicates this month had five payroll Fridays. This implies savings balances (and assets) were temporarily inflated skewing the year-over-year percent change. Member savings balances were up $3.8 billion (0.4%) in March and are up $35 billion (3.8%) on a YTD basis. Given the exceptional membership gains, I expected stronger growth.  Looking at the YTD increase, we see 95% of the gain came from highly liquid accounts. Almost 52% of the YTD deposit growth came from the 5.8% YTD gain in regular shares, with national average deposit yields holding at 0.22%. The right graphic in Figure 5 shows year-to-year deposit yield comparisons. Overall, we see a fractional downward movement.  Just slightly more than 33% of the YTD deposit growth was attributable to the 9.7% YTD increase in share draft accounts, and 10% came from money market accounts. While down for the month, CDs are up 0.9% YTD.  Total CU system assets of $1.12 trillion reflect a $4.1 billion increase in March and a $39 billion (3.6%) gain YTD.  Our 2014 Forecast calls for annual growth consistently below the 10-year average rate of expansion (5.6%). CUs will achieve this controlled growth by closely monitoring relative deposit yield competitiveness. Expect total annual asset growth to average 4.8% through 2018. Assets reach $1.37 trillion by the end of 2018 or roughly 26% above their yearend 2013 level. Asset gains will be highly concentrated in the nation’s largest CUs. 3 ● Credit Union Trends Report

CU Savings / Asset Growth & Key Rates March 2014 10

Annual Growth (%)

0.9% Assets

0.8%

Savings

8

National Average CU Deposit Rates

6

0.7%

March 2013

0.6%

March 2014

0.5% 0.4%

4

0.3% 0.2%

2

0.1% 0.0%

0 10 12

11 12

12 12

13 12

14 12

Share Drafts

Regular Shares

MMAs

1-Yr. CDs

Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics

Figure 5

Capital and Other Key Measures CUs added $400 million to their capital base in March, bringing total capital up to $116.2 billion. This represents a YTD increase of 2.5% and an annual gain of $5.7 billion or 5.1%. The capital-to-asset (C/A) ratio held at 10.3% and is up nine basis points from March 2013. Our 2014 Forecast assumes CUs will continue to expand their capital base in line with asset growth. This will be a challenge given narrowing margins beyond mid-2015 and reduced fee income. Expect the C/A ratio to move in a narrow range from 10.2% - 10.6% through 2018.  In aggregate, the CU industry continues to generate improving results for almost all indicators as we help more member households improve their financial well-being. BUT….Figure 6 clearly shows we have additional capacity to help members with their borrowing and debt service needs. The current loan-to-share (L/S) ratio is 69.4%, up a healthy 305 bp since March 2013, as shown by the red line in Figure 6. While this is a nice improvement, we need to return to pre-recession levels in the low 80s. This implies we need to significantly grow loans. Looking at the loan-to-asset (L/A) ratio (blue line) we see less than 60% of CU assets are in member loans. The L/A ratio peaked at 70.2% in September 2008. Imagine the bottom line (capital) impact if 10 percentage points more of assets ($112 billion) were in member loans versus short-term investments. Now imagine the positive member impact of better rates and terms.  The loan delinquency rate (loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans outstanding) improved in March. At 0.902%, it is down 11 bp from a year ago, 95 bp from its recession cycle peak and just 14 bp above its 5year pre-recession average. CUs would likely benefit from taking more member risk.

Loan-to-Asset & Loan-to-Share Ratios 100

Percent Recession July 1990 - March 1991

95

Recession Dec. 2007 – June 2009

Recession March 2001 – Nov. 2001

90

Loan-to-Share

85 80 75 70 65 60 55

Loan-to-Asset

50 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics

Figure 6

4 ● Credit Union Trends Report

Credit Unions and Members Initial estimates show a first quarter net loss of 48 CUs, well below recent trends, as shown in the left-most bars in Figure 7. While current CUNA results are slightly below the NCUA’s 53 approved mergers YTD, we see the consolidation rate accelerating. It is extremely difficult to imagine how the 1,531 CUs (23% of all CUs and 0.45% of industry assets) with two or fewer full-time equivalent employees (FTE + 0.5*PTE) handle marketing, member services, the back office and regulatory/compliance. These CUs ranged in asset size from $2,400 to $44 million.  At the end of March, the CU count stood at 6,747 institutions. This reflects a year-over-year decline of 261 CUs. Again, current annual consolidation is below recent trends, as shown by the right-most bars in Figure 7.  Looking back at detailed NCUA data (Insurance Report of Activity) covering the past five years, we see total assets of merged CUs (CUs that went away) of $23.5 billion or just 2.3% of industry assets. First quarter 2014 data shows the assets of merged CUs equal to 0.1% of the industry total.  Our 2014 Forecast shows 5,215 CUs by the end of 2018. This represents an average decline of 316 CUs per year.

Comparison of Declines in # of CUs March 2014 Actual = 6,747 400

Annual Declines March to March

Number of CUs

300

261

278

270

261

12

13

14

212

200

100

63

73

62

12

13

41

48

0 10

11

14

10

YTD March Declines

11

Annual Declines

Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics

Figure 7 The 1.03 million member increase through March 2014 (see left-most bars in Figure 8) dwarfs 2013’s YTD gain and 2013 was a record year for membership growth. CUNA’s estimates show CUs added 457,000 memberships during March, the third highest month-only gain in the past four years.  At 99.4 million, the membership count is up almost 2.8 million year-over-year. The right-most bars in Figure 8 help put these exceptional results in a historical perspective. It’s important to remember that these gains are highly concentrated in the largest CUs. As noted in our March report; 80% of 2013’s membership increase came from the 328 largest CUs (4.9% of all CUs) and roughly 54% (3,606 CUs) reported membership declines in 2013.  Our 2014 Forecast shows membership expansion continuing, but at a more sustainable pace. Look for total membership to reach 105.6 million by the end of 2018, a 7.2 million increase during the next five years.

Comparison of Membership Increases March 2014 Actual = 99.4 Million

3.0

Annual Increase March to March

Members in Millions

2.8

2.5 2.0

2.0

1.8

1.5 1.0

1.0 0.5

0.3

0.7

0.7

12

13

1.0 0.6

0.3

0.0 10

11

14

10

YTD March Increase Source data: CUNA Economics & Statistics and CUNA Mutual Group - Economics

Figure 8 5 ● Credit Union Trends Report

11

12

13

Annual Increase

14

National Monthly Credit Union Aggregates YR/MO 12 03 12 04 12 05 12 06 12 07 12 08 12 09 12 10 12 11 12 12 13 01 13 02 13 03 13 04 13 05 13 06 13 07 13 08 13 09 13 10 13 11 13 12 14 01 14 02 14 03

|------------------ ($ Billions) ---------------------| LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL 586.9 1,022.8 884.6 102.1 590.3 1,017.9 878.8 103.1 594.3 1,020.4 880.3 103.9 597.7 1,028.7 887.4 104.5 600.9 1,023.1 880.7 105.5 605.0 1,036.3 892.3 106.4 607.8 1,034.1 888.3 107.0 610.9 1,031.1 886.6 107.6 611.8 1,043.0 896.8 108.3 615.1 1,043.1 896.6 108.7 615.7 1,043.9 896.3 109.2 614.8 1,060.8 913.7 109.8 616.5 1,077.3 929.3 110.5 620.6 1,072.5 924.4 111.3 624.5 1,080.9 932.4 111.0 630.2 1,077.8 928.7 110.1 636.3 1,073.7 824.0 110.2 642.7 1,083.1 931.3 109.8 647.1 1,078.2 924.9 111.3 651.8 1,082.3 926.0 112.3 654.9 1,088.9 932.1 112.7 660.1 1,083.7 929.2 113.3 663.0 1,096.5 939.9 114.8 664.3 1,118.5 960.6 115.8 669.3 1,122.6 964.4 116.2

(Millions) MEMBERS 94.7 94.8 95.1 95.3 95.5 95.8 96.0 95.8 95.9 96.0 96.1 96.4 96.7 96.8 97.2 97.3 97.7 97.9 98.1 98.1 98.1 98.4 98.6 99.0 99.4

CREDIT UNIONS 7,278 7,259 7,240 7,219 7,191 7,162 7,144 7,115 7,116 7,070 7,057 7,047 7,008 6,999 6,987 6,930 6,902 6,880 6,864 6,834 6,828 6,795 6,763 6,754 6,763

LOAN / SAVINGS 66.4 67.2 67.5 67.3 68.2 67.8 68.4 68.9 68.2 68.6 68.7 67.3 66.3 67.1 67.0 67.9 68.9 69.0 70.0 70.4 70.3 71.0 70.5 69.2 69.4

CAPITAL/ ASSET RATIO 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.3 10.3

# OF CUs DECLINE (278) (274) (267) (266) (289) (287) (293) (298) (275) (281) (282) (260) (270) (261) (252) (289) (289) (282) (280) (281) (288) (275) (294) (293) (261)

Delinquency Ratio* 1.445% 1.373% 1.287% 1.198% 1.175% 1.180% 1.172% 1.129% 1.143% 1.153% 1.117% 1.081% 1.013% 1.001% 1.002% 1.033% 1.020% 1.018% 1.013% 1.009% 1.028% 1.005% 0.992% 0.951% 0.902%

Credit Union Growth Rates Percent Change Previous Year YR/MO 12 03 12 04 12 05 12 06 12 07 12 08 12 09 12 10 12 11 12 12 13 01 13 02 13 03 13 04 13 05 13 06 13 07 13 08 13 09 13 10 13 11 13 12 14 01 14 02 14 03

LOANS 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.6

ASSETS 6.6 5.2 6.0 6.9 6.0 7.8 6.5 6.1 7.3 6.2 6.5 6.2 5.3 5.4 5.9 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.3 5.0 4.4 3.9 5.0 5.4 4.2

SAVINGS 6.7 5.2 6.2 6.9 6.0 8.0 6.2 6.1 7.3 6.1 6.3 6.1 5.0 5.2 5.9 4.7 4.9 4.4 4.1 4.4 3.9 3.6 4.9 5.1 3.8

CAPITAL 7.8 7.5 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 7.9 7.8 7.9 8.5 8.1 8.4 8.3 8.0 6.8 5.4 4.4 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.1 4.2 5.1 5.4 5.1

MEMBERS 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9

* Loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans.

6 ● Credit Union Trends Report

# OF CUs (3.7) (3.6) (3.6) (3.6) (3.9) (3.9) (3.9) (4.0) (3.7) (3.8) (3.8) (3.6) (3.7) (3.6) (3.5) (4.0) (4.0) (3.9) (3.9) (4.0) (4.0) (3.9) (4.2) (4.2) (3.7)

Distribution of Credit Union Loans Estimated $ (Billions) Outstanding YR/MO 12 03 12 04 12 05 12 06 12 07 12 08 12 09 12 10 12 11 12 12 13 01 13 02 13 03 13 04 13 05 13 06 13 07 13 08 13 09 13 10 13 11 13 12 14 01 14 02 14 03

TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL LOANS | VEHICLE LOANS | 586.9 59.3 110.0 169.4 590.3 59.8 110.8 170.6 594.3 60.4 111.9 172.3 597.7 61.0 113.1 174.0 600.9 61.6 113.9 175.5 605.0 62.3 115.1 177.4 607.8 63.0 116.1 179.1 610.9 63.6 117.0 180.5 611.8 64.0 116.8 180.8 615.1 64.4 117.3 181.7 615.7 64.7 117.7 182.4 614.8 65.2 117.9 183.1 616.5 65.7 119.0 184.6 620.6 66.2 120.4 186.6 624.5 66.5 121.4 187.9 630.2 67.5 123.4 190.9 636.3 68.6 124.9 193.5 642.7 69.5 126.1 195.6 647.1 70.1 127.2 197.3 651.8 71.3 128.9 200.2 654.9 72.0 129.5 201.5 660.1 72.5 129.6 202.1 663.0 73.8 130.6 204.4 664.3 74.3 131.3 205.6 669.3 75.6 132.8 208.4

UNSEC CREDIT Ex. CC’S CARDS 25.1 36.8 25.3 37.0 25.3 37.3 25.8 37.6 26.1 38.0 27.1 38.4 26.6 38.6 26.9 38.8 27.3 39.2 27.3 40.3 27.4 39.8 27.0 39.3 26.7 39.3 27.2 39.5 27.4 39.9 27.6 40.3 28.2 40.8 28.6 41.3 28.7 41.5 29.0 41.6 29.3 42.0 29.8 43.4 29.7 42.7 29.4 42.0 29.0 42.1

CUCIC 223.0 227.7 229.4 231.2 234.7 237.1 236.7 238.8 242.6 244.0 246.4 248.2 245.5 248.2 248.9 253.8 255.9 259.2 261.9 263.2 263.8 265.6 267.9 267.9 270.0

1ST MORT TOTAL 241.8 241.9 243.8 245.9 245.3 246.3 249.1 250.6 249.0 252.0 251.8 251.6 254.2 254.7 257.5 259.7 263.4 266.5 268.3 270.8 271.6 273.9 274.4 275.7 278.5

TOT. OTHR TOTAL MORT REAL 2ND +HE ESTATE 79.5 321.3 79.1 321.0 78.5 322.4 78.1 324.1 77.7 323.0 77.4 323.7 77.0 326.1 76.6 327.2 76.7 325.7 75.5 327.6 74.8 326.7 74.3 326.0 73.6 327.8 73.4 328.2 72.9 330.4 72.6 332.3 72.2 335.6 72.2 338.7 72.3 340.6 72.0 342.8 71.7 343.3 72.5 346.3 72.4 346.8 72.3 348.0 72.0 350.5

MBLs* 42.6 41.6 42.5 42.4 43.2 44.1 45.1 45.0 43.5 43.5 42.7 40.7 43.2 44.2 45.2 44.8 44.8 44.8 44.7 45.8 47.7 48.2 48.4 48.5 48.8

TOT. OTHR TOTAL MORT REAL 2ND +HE ESTATE (7.7) 1.4 (7.9) 1.9 (8.2) 2.0 (8.2) 2.0 (7.7) 1.9 (8.0) 2.5 (8.3) 2.4 (7.9) 2.5 (7.4) 2.3 (8.1) 2.3 (7.7) 2.2 (7.4) 1.8 (7.5) 2.0 (7.2) 2.2 (7.2) 2.5 (7.1) 2.5 (7.0) 3.9 (6.8) 4.6 (6.1) 4.4 (6.1) 4.8 (6.5) 5.4 (4.1) 5.7 (3.2) 6.2 (2.8) 6.8 (2.1) 6.9

MBLs* 11.3 7.0 9.3 8.4 9.0 9.6 13.9 12.1 7.0 6.5 3.0 (3.4) 1.3 6.2 6.2 5.5 3.6 1.6 (0.8) 1.9 9.8 10.8 13.4 19.2 13.2

* Member Business Loans

Distribution of Credit Union Loans Percent Change From Prior Year YR/MO 12 03 12 04 12 05 12 06 12 07 12 08 12 09 12 10 12 11 12 12 13 01 13 02 13 03 13 04 13 05 13 06 13 07 13 08 13 09 13 10 13 11 13 12 14 01 14 02 14 03

TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL LOANS | VEHICLE LOANS | 2.4 (4.0) 6.5 2.6 2.8 (2.4) 6.5 3.2 3.1 (0.8) 6.9 4.1 3.4 0.6 7.1 4.8 3.8 2.3 7.2 5.4 4.2 4.0 7.4 6.2 4.4 5.8 7.8 7.1 4.6 6.6 7.9 7.4 4.7 7.5 7.7 7.6 4.8 8.6 7.9 8.1 4.9 9.3 8.3 8.6 4.9 10.5 8.1 8.9 5.0 10.6 8.2 9.0 5.1 10.7 8.6 9.4 5.1 10.2 8.4 9.0 5.4 10.7 9.2 9.7 5.9 11.4 9.6 10.2 6.2 11.6 9.6 10.3 6.5 11.3 9.6 10.2 6.7 12.1 10.2 10.9 7.0 12.5 10.9 11.4 7.3 12.6 10.4 11.2 7.7 14.0 10.9 12.0 8.1 13.9 11.4 12.3 8.6 15.2 11.6 12.9

7 ● Credit Union Trends Report

UNSEC CREDIT Ex. CC’S CARDS 1.8 4.7 3.8 5.1 2.0 4.7 3.1 4.7 3.6 4.9 6.3 5.0 4.2 5.5 4.5 5.3 5.5 5.5 4.8 5.7 5.4 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.8 7.3 6.6 8.1 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.9 7.3 5.6 7.5 8.0 7.6 8.2 7.4 7.2 7.2 9.0 7.7 8.5 7.4 8.7 6.9 8.7 6.9

CUCIC 2.2 3.4 3.6 4.7 5.5 5.6 5.7 6.3 7.8 8.0 9.3 10.9 10.1 9.0 8.5 9.5 9.0 9.3 10.7 10.2 8.7 8.8 8.7 7.9 9.9

1ST MORT TOTAL 4.8 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 5.7 5.9 5.5 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.6 7.4 8.2 7.7 8.1 9.1 8.7 8.9 9.6 9.5

Annual Growth Rates Total Loans & Installment Credit 15

CU Loan Portfolio 700

Percent

Total Loans

$ in Billions $660.1 $669.3

600

CUCIC

500 400

10

300

$474.2 $388.5 47.0%

$511.1

$580.5 $587.4 $580.3 $587.0

$544.1

$615.1

$428.6 51.8%

54.1% 56.7%

59.3%

59.6% 61.0% 61.5% 60.3%

59.8% 59.7%

49.8%

200

5

100 0

0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2012

2013

2014

CIC

CIC Share of Total Loans at Credit Unions 45

Other

Consumer Installment Credit at Credit Unions

Percent

280

$ Billions

260

40 240

35 220

30

1

2 3

4

5

6

7 8

2012

9 10 11 12 1

2

3

4 5

6

7

8 9 10 11 12 1 2

2013

3

4

5 6

7

8

9 10 11 12

200

1 2

3 4 5

2014

6 7

8 9 10 11 12 1 2

3 4 5

2012

6 7

2013

8 9 10 11 12 1 2

3 4 5

6 7

8 9 10 11 12

2014

This report on key CU indicators is based on data from CUNA E&S’s Monthly Credit Union Estimates, the Federal Reserve Board, and CUNA Mutual Group – Economics. To access this report on the Internet:  Sign in at cunamutual.com  Go to the “Resource Library” tab  Under “Publications” heading, select Credit Union Trends Report If you have any questions, comments, or need additional information, please call. Thank you. Dave Colby 800.356.2644, Ext. 665.7720 [email protected] CUNA Mutual Group – Economics © CUNA Mutual Group, 2014 All Rights Reserved. CUNA Mutual Group is the marketing name for CUNA Mutual Holding Company, a mutual insurance holding company, its subsidiaries and affiliates.

8 ● Credit Union Trends Report