Copper rally - Too good to be true? Copper prices have risen in a near vertical line to its highest level since June 2015. Despite optimism from some quarters, there still appears little solid fundamental justification for the recent surge. Hopes for a jump in infrastructure spending in the United States following the election of Donald Trump will need to be built on concrete foundations, not just rhetoric. November 29

REUTERS/Peter Andrews

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COPPER

A port worker checks a shipment of copper that is to be exported to Asia in Valparaiso port, Chile August 21, 2006. REUTERS/Eliseo Fernandez

Copper execs cast doubt on 'irrational' price rally By Josephine Mason and Melanie Burton

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lobal copper markets will be oversupplied for at least two years, executives at some of the world's major producers of the metal and traders said in mid-November, casting doubt on the chances of a prolonged rally in prices. That tempered assessment of the market at an industry conference in Shanghai came after benchmark copper prices last week recorded their biggest weekly gain since 2011, largely fuelled by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's promises of infrastructure spending. "In 2017, it will still be a relatively oversupplied market. In 2018 it will not be better than 2017," said Yuneng Wu, vice president of Jiangxi Copper Co, China's largest copper producer. Global markets for the metal, used in everything from wiring to construction, have been burdened by oversupply as mines ramp up output in places such as Chile and Zambia. Some bullish

traders and analysts had embraced last week's rally as the first sign the market was poised for a prolonged bull run, ending a years-long rout that saw prices fall more than a third since July 2014 as demand growth in China faded. But while prices may have bottomed out for now, they will not trade beyond $5,000-6,000 per tonne going into 2017, said Jinbi, the founder and president of Maike Metals Group. Prices stood around $5,500. He also called on China's government to control what he described as "overspeculation" in the local futures market, hit by volatile trading over the last week as it was whipsawed by speculative cash. "We want a market that is supervised rationally and reasonably, otherwise the market will be hurt," he said. Jiangxi Copper's Wu described recent market moves as "irrational". "I've never seen this rocketing of prices ... Some irrational factors were

driving up the prices," he said in a panel discussion at the Metal Bulletin Cesco copper conference. China Minmetals Non-Ferrous Metals Co general manager Xiaoyu Gao told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference that there would probably be "more volatility and more uncertainty" in 2017. Meanwhile, Duncan Wanbald, head of base metals and minerals at Anglo American Plc, said he only saw a "slow" increase in prices over the next two years before a deficit emerges in 2019. But other executives said that China's mammoth infrastructure spending would translate into higher manufacturing demand for 2017, also buttressed by supply-side reforms, pushing up the floor for copper prices. A lack of discoveries of major new deposits, declining ore grades at existing mines, tougher environmental regulation on mining and higher costs will also remain a major long-term challenges for the industry, executives said.

 

COPPER

Zambia copper concentrate duty to disrupt global supplies By Melanie Burton

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plan by Zambia to put a duty on copper concentrates imports could put a kink in the global supply chain for the metal, industry sources said, by forcing neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to send surplus mine output elsewhere. The 7.5 percent duty announced earlier this month and due to come into force at the start of 2017, is likely to disrupt supply of refined metal in the early part of the year, just as the global market moves away from surplus, helping to support prices. Zambia, Africa's second-largest copper producer, will produce about 425,000 tonnes of copper metal this year, according to consultancy GFMS, accounting for about 2 percent of global output. The country's smelters, including those run by privately held Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) and India's Vedanta Resources, currently source some 500,000 tonnes of concentrate from the DRC, according to consultants Wood Mackenzie. This is made up of 400,000 tonnes from ERG's Frontier mine and around 100,000 tonnes from La SinoCongolaise Des Mines S.A. (Sicomines), a joint venture between DRC's Gecamines, China Railway Construction Corp. and Sinohydro Corp . "It will not be viable for smelters to buy concentrates from the DRC," said an industry source working in Zambia. "This change will upset the supply chain for the first six months of 2017." Miners in the DRC would be forced to look for other ways to process their concentrate, such as sending it some 3,000 km overland to Durban in South Africa for shipping to China, a twomonth trip, three industry sources said.

This would take the supplies out of circulation for several months and delay production of up to 150,000 tonnes of copper metal. SMELTERS UNDER STRESS Smelters in Zambia, where capacity far outstrips current mine supply, are already struggling with low feed stocks after miners including Glencore closed copper shafts as prices fell to six-year lows. The duty could mean they have even less concentrate to process, at least in the short term, raising costs per unit. "People are well aware that Zambian smelters are under considerable stress to which this will add significantly," said a source familiar with the matter. The sources said the most affected smelters would be ERG's Chambishi Smelter and Vedanta's Konkola Copper Mine which source a significant part of their concentrate needs from DRC.

Officials at ERG did not reply to an emailed request for comment. Konkola declined to comment. The new duty was likely aimed at boosting Zambian refined metal production from local concentrate supplies, but the move could backfire and instead benefit smelters in other countries such as China and India, Wood Mackenzie said. Companies with local mines including First Quantum Minerals and Barrick Gold could increase output, traders said. Officials from both companies did not respond to requests for comment. The Zambian government was also coming under sustained lobbying from smelters to reverse its proposal, industry sources said. "Some are already threatening to close down," said a Swiss trader active in the region. "I believe that the duty is not a definitive decision".

A truck exits the mine after collecting ore from at the Chibuluma copper mine in the Zambian copperbelt region. REUTERS/Rogan Ward

 

COPPER

Trump infrastructure plan adds little to global copper backdrop By Eric Onstad

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nvestors who sent copper to a 17month peak on hopes for a splurge of U.S. infrastructure spending by Donald Trump may end up underwhelmed given that the plans, even if successful, would add only modestly to world demand. China dominates the global copper market, accounting for half of all demand, and an uptick in consumption there following further stimulus is much more relevant to the market. That, together with less mine supply than expected, would support slightly firmer prices, but not the wild frenzy that erupted after the U.S. election last week, investors and analysts said. "The infrastructure ambitions of Trump I think are meaningless in terms of the course and direction of commodities," said Scottish hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry, founder and chief investment officer of Eclectica Asset Management, which has around $200 million under management. Copper prices soared about 25 percent from the start of the month to a peak of $6,025 a tonne, but have since retreated to $5,466 - still nearly a fifth higher since the start of 2016.

Experts brush off the impact on copper of plans by the incoming U.S. president to spend $1 trillion over 10 years on building infrastructure, even as they are more upbeat on the plan's impact on the U.S. steel sector. Unlike copper, steel prices are set regionally, and an infrastructure spending spree coupled with even stronger trade protectionism would initially be a big boost for the U.S. steel market, even though longer term the fear is that steel price inflation will cripple demand growth. U.S. COPPER DEMAND SLIDES Copper consumption in the United States has slid 40 percent over the past 15 years to 1.8 million tonnes last year, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. That compares to 10 million in China, Thomson Reuters GFMS data shows. "Even an assumed 10 percent increase in infrastructure-related copper consumption would hardly matter on a global scale," said analyst Carsten Menke at Julius Baer in Switzerland. "This is not least due to the fact that part of the increase in copper demand would be met by increasing recycling, considering that

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump gestures to the news media as he appears outside the main clubhouse at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, U.S., November 20. REUTERS/Mike Segar

existing infrastructure would be replaced rather than expanded." A position paper by Trump's advisors about his infrastructure plans published before the election did not mention specific projects, but referred to the broad sweep of possibilities including bridges, airports and digital superhighways. "Even if Trump’s infrastructure plan goes ahead, the impact on physical markets is likely to be only modest," said Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale. "If spending goes towards building roads and bridges, this wouldn’t be as beneficial for metals demand as extra spending on sectors such as power, transportation and capital infrastructure projects," Bhar said in a note. More important is whether stronger demand in China on the back of stimulus earlier this year persists. China's real estate sector is a prime driver of demand for industrial metals including copper, but investment has slowed and builders started fewer new homes year-on-year in September, the first such decline since December. "These are lead indicators for copper demand by six to 12 months, but have clearly turned sharply negative," Liberum analyst Richard Knights said in a note. Hendry, although dismissing the impact of infrastructure spending on commodities, says a wider fiscal stimulus could boost overall economic growth and give the sector a lift. "A trillion plus tax cuts are not (meaningless) and would certainly seem to be the first dramatic and politically supported step," he told the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit. "That's a world where commodities, you have to imagine, retain their outperformance."

 

COPPER COLUMN

Is the copper mine supply wave peaking? By Andy Home

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opper's recent turbocharged rally has upended the market's narrative of supply surplus. Too much supply was supposedly the reason why copper, until this month, was the worst performer among the base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME). But right now the market is struggling to work out where all that extra copper actually is. LME stocks are low and falling. Stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) are rising but still low. The shuffle of metal between the two exchanges has blown a smokescreen around the stocks signals this year but the much-feared wall-ofcopper is proving surprisingly elusive. The best bet is that it is still working its way down the supply chain with this year's surge in mine production yet to be converted into refined metal. Because at the heart of copper's supply story has always been the wave of extra material coming from a combination of new mines and expansions, all entering the price cycle at precisely the wrong moment. Yet even this assumption has been thrown into doubt by a surprise drop in smelter treatment terms for 2017 shipments, implying the copper raw materials picture may be tightening earlier than expected. TERMS FALL...TOO FAR? Freeport McMoRan and Jiangxi Copper have inked a concentrates supply deal with treatment and refining terms (TCRCs) of $92.50 per tonne and 9.25 cents per lb. That's how much Jiangxi will charge Freeport for converting its mine production into refined metal next

Annual Benchmark Copper Concentrate Terms

year. The treatment charge is lower than both this year's $97.35 and last year's $107.00 with the refining component registering the same percentage drop. It's a big surprise. Most analysts were looking for the fees to rise year-on-year with smelters capitalising on an over-supplied concentrates sector to maximise their revenue streams. Many smelters were looking for the same. Aurubis, which operates smelter -refineries in Germany, Belgium and Bulgaria, has already described the Freeport-Jiangxi terms as "too low". There may be more to the deal than meets the eye. Concentrate conversion contracts can be complex with secondary clauses, covering such esoterica as quotational period, acting as modifiers to the headline treatment and refining charges. But, that said, Freeport's terms have served as the market's annual benchmark in the last couple of years and there's no reason to think they won't again in 2017. And the terms, at least at a headline level, suggest a tightening in the copper concentrates part of the supply chain. This was only really supposed to

happen from 2018 onwards, when copper miners' collective capital expenditure crunch translated into a lack of new projects entering the market. So why's it happening early? THE RETURN OF DISRUPTION One element of copper's supply picture that has changed significantly in the last month or so is the level of disruption. There was hardly any production disruption in the first half of 2016, a rarity in a metal that has a long history of unexpected mine supply hits. Indeed, analysts build a "disruption allowance", typically around five percent, into their supply-side calculations to account for copper's propensity to under-perform relative to mine plan. But disruption was conspicuous by its absence in the first part of the year, compounding the sense of a building wall of copper coming to market. The third-quarter reporting season, however, brought several downgrades to expected production from major producers such as Freeport, Rio Tinto and Anglo American. Since when there has been a major outage at BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam

 

COPPER operations in Australia, a strike at Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia and a blockade of MMG's Las Bambas mine in Peru. Copper, it seems, has reverted to previous unpredictable form and it has done so just as smelters and miners do battle over their 2017 contracts. PASSING WAVE There is a sense, also, that the wave of new mine supply has already peaked. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) estimates that global mined production will increase by four percent this year. That figure, though, understates the growth experienced in the copper concentrates part of the chain because it includes straight-tometal mine production which has fallen this year thanks to Glencore's cuts to its African operations. Strip out mines using leaching technology to produce refined copper cathode and the surge has been a more impressive six percent. But next year the ICSG is forecasting zero growth in mine supply. The headline figure comprises a sharper six-percent year-on-year decline in cathode leaching, implying some growth in concentrates supply, but nowhere near this year's pace. In part this flattish outlook picture is down to the fact that new mines such as Las Bambas have come online far more smoothly than might have been expected of such large, complex operations. Las Bambas only began production in the fourth quarter of 2015 but this year's third-quarter output of 106,000 tonnes was already close to nameplate capacity. Such efficient ramp-up has acted to bring forward the burst in supply growth that was expected to extend until 2018.

The burst, it seems, has already largely taken place ahead of schedule. There are far fewer big supply boosts scheduled for next year, other than an expansion of capacity at the Escondida mine in Chile. And beyond Escondida the project pipeline starts to dry up, reflecting the lock-down on new project approvals occasioned bycopper's weak price environment over the last couple of years. True, Glencore can be expected to bring back to production its Democratic Republic of Congo operations but these are straight-tometal leaching mines with no impact on availability of copper concentrates. WELL STOCKED Smelters such as Jiangxi should, however, be well stocked with concentrates. China, which is the world's largest

converter of copper as well as its largest user, has been soaking up ever increasing amounts of concentrate for many months now. The country's imports of copper concentrates are running at record levels, up 31 percent to 12.2 million tonnes (bulk weight) in the first nine months of this year. It may still be the case, as the bears argue, that this will translate into higher refined production by Chinese smelters over the next year. Or it may not. Because this benchmark deal between Freeport and Jiangxi suggests smelters are factoring in an earlier-thanexpected turn of the mine supply cycle. If so, they may want to hold on to their raw material stocks rather than transmitting them into the refined metal part of the supply chain. The copper supply feast may still be playing out but the days of famine already seem to be nearing.

Sheets of copper cathodes are seen at the copper cathodes plant inside the La Escondida copper mine near Antofagasta, about 1545km (980 miles) north of Santiago city and 3100 meters (10,170 feet) above sea level, March 31, 2008. REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado

 

COPPER GFMS

Copper’s rally built on sand or sound foundations? By Karen Norton

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he copper price has risen in a near vertical line, gaining 21% to touch a high of $6,026/tonne, and its loftiest since June 2015. Despite a modicum of optimism directed by some quarters towards the metal during London Metal Exchange (LME) week, there still appears little solid fundamental justification for the recent price surge. Hopes for a jump in infrastructure spending in the United States following the election of Donald Trump and backed by strong Republican support, will need to be built on concrete foundations, not just rhetoric. In the meantime, the largely technically-inspired move takes pressure off producers as they dodge making further cutbacks and lock in prices. Restarts of idled capacity must surely also come back on the agenda. It may yet prove to be fleeting, but copper has woken out of its slumber and reasserted itself as the LME’s benchmark contract this week, leading prices for other industrial metals sharply higher. The LME 3-month copper price was last indicated at $5,990/tonne, down from earlier highs above $6,000/ tonne, but still well above recent weak levels largely between $4,600-4,800/ tonne, with much talk about a return to a bull market. As momentum-based trading holds sway, there appears to be little technically in the way for copper before $6,400 and a need to consolidate. The move follows the earlier break out from the double bottom at the neckline of $5,091/tonne and the RSI’s break of a six year range, which currently points to stronger and sustainable momentum. Infrastructure hopes Jumping on the back of the CTA/ algorithm-based rally, some industry

REUTERS/Peter Andrews

watchers are searching for fundamental reasons to believe in this move. The election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president did not unsettle metals markets as much as previously expected, but rather generated hope that the much talked about infrastructure investment will broadly propel metals demand growth higher. Ultimately they may be disappointed once some measure of normality returns. In the absence of tangible plans some of that optimism may start to at least fizzle even before Trump takes office. Admittedly, the market is also taking heart from recent firmer Chinese data, such as October’s manufacturing PMI which showed the nation’s manufacturing sector expanded at a faster than expected pace. However, while the construction-led strength, facilitated by strong credit expansion will help boost copper demand next year, the impact is expected to fade as the year wears on. Meanwhile, investment in China’s power sector, which accounts for around half of copper demand, will focus on less copper-intensive projects. Despite the current glass half full view,

headwinds undoubtedly remain for China in its transition to a consumerbased economy. On our numbers, all other things being equal demand in both China and the United States could grow by 5% next year and still the copper market would remain over-supplied. For a little perspective, it is perhaps worth remembering that the United States accounts for less than 10% of world copper consumption. On a very optimistic view, a 10% increase in demand would boost U.S. copper offtake by 150,000 tonnes more than we currently forecast next year. That’s in a market where total demand is put at 22.85 million tonnes in 2017.   Producers chomp at the bit? Sustained stronger demand growth of course cannot be dismissed, but also to be taken into account is the improvement in producers’ margins as prices rise. The dearth of cutbacks in recent months even with copper prices around multi-year lows, already pointed to a lack of willingness among producers to act and this upturn could ease pressure further if higher cost producers lock in around these levels. Indeed, we understand that the recent price strength has already prompted some miners to hedge at least part of their production. Karen Norton, based in London , is a Senior Analyst for Thomson Reuters GFMS, focused on Copper and Nickel. The GFMS team at Thomson Reuters provides fundamental information, forecasts and analysis on base, precious metals and mine cost analysis. These include: historical supply and demand; forecasts of supply, demand and price; metal movements through the supply chain; field research reports on key markets; and analyst commentaries. To know more, Eikon users can click here.

 

COPPER

Rio Tinto 'cautiously optimistic' about market in short term

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io Tinto is "cautiously optimistic" about the current copper market that has spiked in recent weeks, a senior executive at the world's second-largest miner said in mid-November. However, Rio holds a stronger outlook for the mid- and long-term copper market, he said. Copper prices have surged around 18 percent this month, led by stronger economic indicators out of the world's biggest consumer China and expectations that the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president would boost metals markets through increased infrastructure spending. Three-month copper on the London

Metal Exchange briefly hit $6,025.50 a tonne, its highest level since June 2015, though it pared some of the gains last week. "Copper prices have rallied due to a combination of different things," Arnaud Soirat, Rio's chief executive for copper and diamonds, told Reuters on the sideline of "Copper 2016" industry conference being held in Kobe, Japan. "People thought demand was higher than they had anticipated, with the Chinese economy showing some good signs of healthy demand," he said, adding that expectations for the positive effect from the U.S. presidential election also lent support. Trump has said he plans to fix inner cities, rebuild highways and

infrastructure, while erecting barriers against cheap imports, leading to higher consumption of industrial raw materials. "But we think the market will be volatile in the near-term and we are cautiously optimistic about the market in a short term," Soirat said, without giving more details. Still, copper has attractive long-term fundamentals, he said, due to a limited number of new projects, depleting mines and the declining quality of the ore being mined. Asked when Rio expects global supply to exceed demand, Soirat said: "It's difficult to predict whether it will be three years, five years or seven years...But the outlook in the mid- to long-term is pretty healthy."

A miner drills for copper ore in the copper mine in the Serbian town of Bor, some 238 km (148 miles) south-east from Belgrade June 8, 2013. REUTERS/Marko Djurica

 

COPPER

Codelco cuts China 2017 copper premium to lowest since 2009 By Yuka Obayashi

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he world's leading copper producer Codelco has cut its 2017 term premiums to China by more than a quarter, an executive at the Chilean company said recently, reducing them to their lowest level since 2009. Japan's biggest copper smelter Pan Pacific Copper (PPC) also expects its term premiums to China next year to be near Codelco's offer of $72 a tonne, down 31 percent from this year, its president said. The cut underlines slower demand growth in China and comes despite the recent rally in the industrial metal prices on signs of economic strength in the world's biggest copper consumer. Codelco's senior commercial vice president Rodrigo Toro, speaking on the sidelines of a conference, said the company had set next year's premium for physical delivery of metal in China at $72 a tonne over the London Metal Exchange benchmark. That is down from $98 a tonne for this

year's contracts and the lowest since 2009, Reuters data shows. Traders said it was the first time that Codelco's premium in China has been lower than for Europe. The company has offered to cut premiums there to $80-$85 a tonne. "Codelco has gone in aggressively for next year to conserve market share," said a trader in Shanghai. The miner is battling with domestic smelters that have ramped up production of refined metal by 8.4 percent to 6.2 million tonnes this year. PPC President Yoshihiro Nishiyama told Reuters that Codelco's $72 a tonne was an appropriate level given recent spot premiums that reflected softer Chinese demand and higher inventories. "Premiums in Asia had been higher than Europe due to strong appetite from China. But that has changed since last year in the face of slower growth in China and increased stock built by speculators who had failed to sell them at a high profit," Nishiyama said.

The lower premiums reflect a tougher environment for metals sales after miners in Peru churned out a bumper year of supply this year. But analysts have recently made a downward revision to forecasts for 2017 mine supply growth to 0-1 percent. One trader said the premiums represent a bet by Codelco on a drop in copper supply. "Codelco are trying to sell as much as they can on term deals for 2017 to maximise upside exposure for the spot market," he said. Copper futures prices have soared in the past week on worries that an expected surplus next year may be smaller than expected or even balanced. But the price spike has also fuelled concerns that it will blunt fragile demand in China. Investors have piled into copper futures on signs of recovering global economic growth, limiting profit opportunities in other asset classes. Codelco's premiums are viewed as a benchmark for global contracts, with other producers likely to follow suit.

The cathode manufacturing process is pictured inside a plant at the copper smelter of Codelco Ventanas in Ventanas city, Chile. January 7, 2015. REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido  

 

COPPER

Freeport sees copper TC/RCs flat to lower in 2017 By Yuka Obayashi

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iversified U.S. miner Freeport-McMoRan Inc expects treatment and refining charges for copper concentrates (TC/RCs) to be flat or slightly lower in 2017 compared to this year, with supply and demand largely balanced, a senior executive said. TC/RCs are fees paid by miners to smelters to process copper concentrate into refined metal and are a key part of the global copper industry's earnings. Benchmark TC/RCs for 2016 were set at $97.35 a tonne, 9.735 cents a pound, down 9 percent from the previous year, as global miners cut output due to low prices. "I would say TC/RCs will remain where they are this year or go down slightly,"

Javier Targhetta, Freeport's senior vice president of marketing and sales, told reporters when asked on the progress of TC/RCs talks for 2017 which began this month. Speaking on the sidelines of the Copper 2016 industry conference in Kobe, he said TC/RCs may come in at $90-97.35 a tonne, 9-9.735 cents a pound next year with the market largely balanced, similar to this year. "Only difference is that concentrate inventories in smelters were significantly higher this time last year than this year," he said. Copper on the LME has risen nearly 20 percent in 2016, recovering after a three-year decline, amid signs of economic strength in top consumer China. The industrial metal widened price gains after Republican Donald

Trump's victory in the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election stoked hopes of increased infrastructure spending in the world's biggest economy. The recent rally was primarily driven by financial investors including speculators and hedge funds, Targhetta said. "There have also been good signs of faster growth in consumption in China over the past few months. There are better expectations about China growth now than six months ago," he said. Copper prices may strengthen over the next two to three years on solid demand in China, India and other Asian nations, said Targhetta. "I think the so-called supercycle has never ended and will continue for number of decades."

LME WEEK

Copper market seen 'broadly balanced' in 2016, 2017 - IWCC

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lobal demand for copper is expected to broadly meet supply in 2016 and 2017, while there is a chance of stronger-than-expected consumption in top user China, an industry body said. The International Wrought Copper Council (IWCC) sees a modest 120,000 -tonne deficit this year, narrowing to 60,000 tonnes in 2017. "Forecasts therefore suggest that in both 2016 and 2017 the copper market will be broadly balanced," the IWCC said in a statement. Refined copper production in 2016 is

expected to rise 2 percent from the year before to 22.38 million tonnes, while global demand for refined copper will climb 2.6 percent to 22.26 million tonnes. For 2017, the body sees refined copper output at 22.77 million tonnes, growing 1.7 percent compared with 2016, with demand climbing 2 percent to 22.71 million tonnes. Demand in top consumer China is set to hit 10.5 million tonnes this year, up 4.1 percent on last year, with 2.4-percent growth next year to 10.75 million tonnes. "There is perhaps more upside demand potential in China in 2017 than the

figure might suggest," the IWCC said, without giving details. Meanwhile, demand for refined copper in the European Union is forecast to increase 0.5 percent to 3.15 million tonnes this year, rising to 3.19 million tonnes in 2017. The IWCC sees slightly lower demand from Japan and the U.S. in 2016, although that will stabilise next year in Japan and recover in the U.S. to 1.82 million tonnes. Global copper mine production this year is expected to grow 1.4 percent to 19.2 million tonnes, rising another 2.1 percent to 19.61 million tonnes in 2017.

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