Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
Dr. Michael Buser AssTech Risk Management Service
ab
Conventional Loss Prevention goes
ab
Advanced Risk Management
Content Risk Management – Basic Principles - Probability / Consequences of Losses - Individual Risk Perception - Risk Assessment Conventional Loss Prevention - Structural / Spacial - Technical / Physical - Operational / Organisational Dr. Michael Buser AssTech Risk Management Service
Advanced Risk Management - Multi Level Protection - Hardware, Software, Lifeware - Human Element
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Risk Management – Basic Principles
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Risk: Definition
R=P C x
RISK = Probability x Consequence
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Probability
Consequence
- frequent - often - rarely - unlikely
- catastrophic - critical - disruptive - minor
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
Likelihood of a Loss Occurrence
ab
4 - frequent: >1 per year Losses occur in comparable systems frequently and are statistically reported 3 - often: every 2-5 years Losses occurred in comparable systems and are statistically reported. 2 - rarely: 10 -20 years Losses are reported in comparable systems Dr. Michael Buser AssTech Risk Management Service Page 5
1 - unlikely: > 100 years Losses theoretically possible but based on experience, losses not very likely
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
Consequence of a Loss Severeness 4 - catastrophic irreversible losses, system destroyed e.g. company is out of business 3 - critical reversible losses, critical for system e.g. total loss of annual earnings 2 - disruptive system damaged e.g. loss of1/10 of annual earnings
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1 - minor minor damages e.g. loss not relevant to balance sheet
ab
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Risk Assessment Probability of a Loss
non acceptable
regular prevalent
average
rare
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never
acceptable negligible
minor
average
serious catastrophic
Consequence of a Loss
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Primary Cover: FLEXA
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F
ire
L
ightning
Ex
plosion
A
ircraft
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
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Fire Hazard: Effects and Consequences
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Fire
Explosion
Smoke
Heat Radiation
Shock Wave
Corrosive Gases
Conventional Loss Prevention goes
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Advanced Risk Management
Conventional Loss Prevention Structural / Spacial
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Fire Separation Spatial and structural separation avoid fire spread and smoke contamination production / storage machinery / installations
Storage Lager
protected / unprotected aras
Büros Office
fire load / ignition sources value concentration Dr. Michael Buser AssTech Risk Management Service Page 11
A
Produktion Production
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Construction Materials
Classification B
Hazard Potential
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A
Description B3
easily flammable / combustible
B2
normally flammable / combustible
B1
hardly flammable / combustible
A1 / A2
non-flammable non-combustible
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Non Combustible = Fire Resistant ??? Total destruction of steel construction and concrete
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Building Construction Concrete - excellent fire resistance - best fire protection properties Brick, masonry, plaster - good fire resistance - critical in terms of explosion hazards
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Steel - at 500°C → 50% strength - critical in terms of loss prevention
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Hidden Fire Load Cable insulation Plastic piping Electrical installations Insulation material Lubrication fluids Heat transfer fluids
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Roof Construction
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Hidden Fire Load Cable Insulation
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Electrical Installations
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
Smoke Contamination: Corrosive Fire Gases (e.g. PVC) 100 kg PVC burning 40 m3 Hydrochlorine gases 200 l conc. Hydrochlorine-acid (in contact with water) Contamination / Corrosion: - 500.000 m2 Metal-Surface - 2.700 m2 Concrete-Surface
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Other fire gases CO, HCN, NOx
ab
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
Openings in Fire Partition Walls Openings in fire partition walls in general are inacceptable If openings in fire partition walls are necessary for operational reasons they have to be provided with fireproof devices (90 minutes fire resistance) e.g. fire doors and gates, fire dampers, expansion joints, cable and pipe fire interlocks
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ab
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Fire Doors Fire doors always have to be closed If it is necessary to keep fire doors open for operational reasons, they shall be provided with self-closing devices, controlled by smoke detectors, which close automatically in case of a fire The required smoke detectors shall be fitted at both sides of the wall under the ceiling
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Fire Doors for Conveyor Systems
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes
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Advanced Risk Management
Conventional Loss Prevention Technical / Physical
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
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Fire Water Supply: Design Criteria Type of risk
Number of pipes
Water demand [l/min]
Duration [min]
Water capacity [m3]
residential
2
600
45
30
farming
3
900
60
50
light industry hospitals, hotels
12
3.600
180
600
heavy industry chemistry, warehouses
16
4.800
180
800
petrochemical, paper, tyre
40
12.000
240
2.500-3.000
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Sprinkler Systems Rooms, plants and installations with substances of fire class A Warehouses High-rack storage High-rise bildings Process units
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Gas Extinguishing Systems Rooms or local applications with substances of fire class B or C, or fast melting substances Electrical installations Paintshops Explosion Protection: For inertising atmosphere in silos and mills (alternative to nitrogen)
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Foam Extinguishing Systems Outdoor installations and process areas with substances of fire class A and B Tank farms Storage of solvents Installations and units of petrochemical industry
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Powder Extinguishing Systems Outdoor installations and process areas with substances of fire class A, B, and C. Filling stations for flammable liquids and gases Installations and units with high-pressurised liquids or gases
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
Water Spray / Deluge Extinguishing Systems
ab
Rooms, plants and installations with very quick or violent burning substances of fire class A or liquids with flash points below 100°C Paper industry Wood processing industry, Storage of foamed plastics Storage of garbage Dr. Michael Buser AssTech Risk Management Service Page 27
Water spray for cooling purpose of tanks
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Foam Monitors Tank farms Large-scale storage Areas Petrochemical process areas
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Fire Detection Systems Smoke detectors (Optical sensors or Ionisation Sensors) Flame Detector (Infra-Red Radiation Sensors) Heat detectors (Temperature Sensors)
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes
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Advanced Risk Management
Conventional Loss Prevention Operational / Organisational
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Organisatorischer Brandschutz Fire Brigade / Emergency Response Team Safety Officer / Security Organisation Inspection / Maintenance Work Permits / Audits
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Organisatorischer Brandschutz Safety Trainings / Emergency Drill Smoking Ban / Safe Work Practice Housekeeping / Order Storage Procedures / Waste Management
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
Fire Brigade: Rating Criteria
ab
Public fire brigade ↔ Plant fire brigade Professional fire brigade ↔ Voluntary fire brigade Response time / intervention delay Equipment Experience / training Accessibility of site / Free access ways Dr. Michael Buser AssTech Risk Management Service Page 33
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Fire Prevention Officer Consulting of management in terms of safety-relating aspects, fire protection and loss prevention Arrange for to eliminate deficiencies in terms of fire protection and loss prevention Organisation and monitoring of operational requirements in terms of fire protection and loss prevention
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Organisation and lead through factory assessments and risk management audits
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Training, Exercise and Practice Knowledge and practictice of functional mode and effect of manual fire fighting equipment Elimination of fear and reticence to use fire fighting equipment
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes
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Advanced Risk Management
Conventinal Loss Prevention Opportunities
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
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Risk Assessment: Structural Loss Prevention
Complex Separation Fire Compartments
Probability of a Loss
non acceptable
regular prevalent
average
rare
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never
acceptable negligible
minor
average
serious catastrophic
Consequence of a Loss
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
Risk Assessment: Operational Loss Prevention
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Fire Prevention Officer Inspection, Maintenance
Probability of a Loss
non acceptable
regular prevalent
average
rare
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never
acceptable negligible
minor
average
serious catastrophic
Consequence of a Loss
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab
Risk Assessment: Technical Loss Prevention
Fire Detection Fire Extinguishing System
Probability of a Loss
non acceptable
regular prevalent
average
rare
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never
acceptable negligible
minor
average
serious catastrophic
Consequence of a Loss
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
Handling with Risks: Financial Resources
ab
We should stop asking ourselves whether we can afford to invest in loss prevention measures ...
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... the question really should be whether we can afford NOT (or not adequately) to provide such investments.
Conventional Loss Prevention goes
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Advanced Risk Management
Advanced Risk Management
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Major Losses / Catastrophic Events major losses always caused by "failure of a system" or "deficiencies in procedures" by a combination of: technical failures organisational deficiencies conceptual weakness
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human errors
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Major Losses / Catastrophic Events major losses can only be controlled by a combination of appropriate Loss Prevention Programmes and adequate Fire Protection Measures and proper (advanced) Risk Management Procedures
STOP
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab
What do these desasters have in common ?
Pampa
Flixborough
Pasadena
Bintulu
Chiapas
Al Ahmadi
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Tschernobyl Challenger
Zeebrugge
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab “Unforseen” Incidents Human Elements wrong operation management mistakes lack of organisation human errors
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
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Who is responsible for the Errors ? Human Beings = Risk ?
ab
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab The Human Element
Safety through human action
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Safety despite human errors
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Lifeware: “Human Errors” mistakes of operators must be seen in the context of systems vulnerable to fail vulnerability of systems arises from a complex interaction of various factors: - organisation + management systems - training + education - procedures + practice - regulations + guidelines
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- inspection + checks
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Advanced Safety Management safety culture
Lifeware Interactive Risks
Hardware Software Dr. Michael Buser AssTech Risk Management Service Page 49
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Hardware plant layout (spacing) construction (non-combustible) process design (fail-safe) protection systems (sprinkler)
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safety features (fire detection)
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Software management programmes guidelines, rules, prohibitions work instructions, permits to work control, checks, audits
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inspection, maintenance
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Lifeware safety culture risk awareness motivation
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Protection Systems
System 1
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System 3
System 5
Hardware-Defense
Software-Defense
Lifeware-Defense
- plant layout - construction - process design - protection systems - safety features
- management systems - guidelines, rules - prohibitions - permits to work - control, checks,audits - inspection
- motivation - safety culture - risk awareness
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Failure of Protection Systems
System 1
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System 3
System 5
Hardware-Failure
Software-Failure
Lifeware-Failure
- conguested layout - combustibles - deficient detection systems - inadequate protection systems
- no permit to work procedure - poor maintenance - lack of inspection
- no motivation - underdeveloped safety culture - risk awareness is not enforced
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Multi-Level Protection
Triggering Event
Tra j
System 1 System 2
ect o
ry
of
System 3
an
acc ide
nt
System 4 System 5 System 5
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Failure of all Protection-Systems
Triggering Event
Tra j
System 1 System 2
ect o
ry
of
System 3
an
acc ide
nt
System 4 System 5 System 5
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accident
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Catastrophic Event
emergency response crisis management
accident
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economical Chaos
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Multi-Level Protection
processdesign operator control process control (DCS) pressure release valves (PSV) emergency shut-down (ESD) Dr. Michael Buser AssTech Risk Management Service Page 58
constructural protection emergency response crisis management
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Holistic Risk Assessment inspections
response to recommendations
maintenance loss history risk awareness
near misses investigation
physical protection safety audits
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process design
exposureanalysis
risk management philosophy
instructions emergency planning
safety culture
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Advanced Risk Management… … requires scenario-thinking !
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Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Advanced Risk Management
Dr. Michael Buser AssTech Risk Management Service Page 61
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Your Contact Dr. Michael Buser AssTech - Risk Management Service Swiss Re Group Loss Prevention Manager
telephone: +49 89 3844 1841 Dr. Michael Buser AssTech Risk Management Service Page 62
email: Michael_Buser @ AssTech.com
Conventional Loss Prevention goes Advanced Risk Management
ab Your Contact Dr. Michael Buser Loss Prevention Manager (project manager) risk management services and business interuption studies in process industry, trade and commercial business - fire protection, process safety, emergency planning, etc. - risk surveys, loss inspections, Bi-studies, etc. - loss control programmes, safety audits, etc. - lectures, seminars, training, workshops, etc. - valuation, cost appraisal in selected industries instructor and teacher of German Insurance Academy
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member of expert committees: - technical expert council of German Insurance Association, GDV - expert advisor of Federal Fire Brigade Association - Munich expert panel for loss prevention