Commodities Weekly Rates, FX, and Commodities Strategy

Commodities Weekly Rates, FX, and Commodities Strategy 18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy WANING BREXIT-RELATED ANGST BOOSTS COMMODITIE...
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Commodities Weekly Rates, FX, and Commodities Strategy

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

WANING BREXIT-RELATED ANGST BOOSTS COMMODITIES, HURTS GOLD

COMMODITIES UPDATE & WEEK AHEAD DRIVERS

2

COMMODITIES CHART LOGIC: SPEC INTEREST AMID OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK BODES WELL FOR MORE PALLADIUM OUTPERFORMANCE

TD SECURITIES GLOBAL METALS INDEX

7

4

WEEKLY PRICE TABLE

8

ECONOMIC INDICATORS & DATA CALENDAR

5

ETF MONITOR TABLE & CHARTS

9

COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS

6

CHART PACKAGE

11

MODEL PORTFOLIO TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS

6

RESEARCH TEAM

18

Weekly Commodity Movers & Shakers

Commodity Price Percent Change (8-Jul-16 to 15-Jul-16) Palladium

4.9%

Copper

4.3%

Nickel

4.1%

Gasoline

3.7%

Lead

3.1%

Change in Price (%)

Zinc

2.9%

Brent

1.8%

WTI

1.2%

Coal

1.0%

S&P GSCI Index

0.9%

Aluminum

0.1%

Silver

-0.2%

Platinum

-1.1%

AECO NG

-1.1%

Gold Uranium

optimism and deficit projections

Investors sent copper higher as China data beats expectations and markets consider weaker Chilean exports

Lead and zinc get lift from a rise in risk appetite

Crude oil lingers near support as higher-than -expected gasoline inventories put demand into question

-0.3%

Heating Oil

Henry Hub NG

Palladium outperforms amid China demand

-1.6%

Gold sees some profit-taking amongst waning Brexit angst, higher yields, and a record high US stock market

-2.1% -2.3%

Molybdenum-5.1%

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Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

COMMODITIES UPDATE & WEEK AHEAD DRIVERS

Rising Gasoline Inventories, Lower Crack Spreads Forcing Crude Oil Lower

Crude oil posts lackluster gains in the face of higher inventories and new surplus concerns

Base metals and palladium get a lift from monetary easing and China's recovery hopes

Gold trading lower as renewed risk appetite, record US equities, and new growth optimism prompt specs to cut length

242

1.2

241

1.1

240

1.0 239 0.9 0.8 0.7

mn b/d

less Brexit-related market volatility

Indexed to Apr 25, 2016

Commodities rise amid central bank stimulus chatter and

1.3

238 WTI Price

237

WTI Crushing Crack Spread DOE Gasoline Inventories (RHS)

0.6 25-Apr 10-May 25-May

236 9-Jun

24-Jun

9-Jul

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

Despite the angst associated with the UK vote to leave the EU, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index, which tracks the majority of energy, metals and agricultural commodities, continued to hold onto quite a decent performance so far this year.

Commodities Still Showing a Good YTD Performance Despite Brexit Angst

term weakness in the face of an expected longer-term improved supply-demand outlook, it is likely that we will see volatility but not convincingly in either direction for now. Market flux is likely to be augmented by the reduction in liquidity associated with the fact that many traders will be going on their summer vacations and many desks unwilling to commit capital. Similarly, investors have sharply cut their net long gold holdings following a week of very strong equity market performance, less Brexit-related angst and surprising strong US data which is prompting some to speculate that the next Fed rate hike may come sooner than many now think.

410 390 370

Index

350 330 310 290 S&P GS Commodity Index

270 250 Jan 04

Jan 25

Feb 15

Mar 07

Mar 28

Apr 18

May May 09 30

Jun 20

Jul 11

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

Nonetheless, there is some evidence emerging that investors are reluctant to take this year's stars, oil and gold, higher. Surprisingly, high gasoline inventories and dropping crack spreads are prompting money managers to voice concerns that the road to supply rebalancing may by choppy, and that has prompted them to cut long exposure while buildings brand new short positions. WTI crude oil, which had nearly doubled from its February lows some six weeks ago, continues to trade near technical support at around $45/bbls. Since the market is now responding to short-

Very robust spec long liquidations have dragged gold lower for the first the first time in some seven weeks. Traders are taking profits following the surge in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, which has triggered a big increase in demand for safe-haven assets such as precious metals. With equity markets surging, following the promises to hike central bank liquidity and monetary stimulus, and the US economy once again showing respectable economic data, the drivers behind the recent gold rally are now fading and entering consolidation mode. But since global yields will very likely near record lows, gold should once again move materially higher on the first signs showing a reduction in risk appetite and lower equity valuations. In contrast, industrial metals received support from a growing sense that additional stimulus coming from the PBoC, the Chinese government, the BOE and others could work in tandem with stronger-than-expected Chinese economic numbers to tighten fundamentals. Copper led the charge higher, with nickel following close behind.

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Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

But, we should not expect copper or nickel to rip higher. Stimulus notwithstanding, China growth is not going to go far above the 6.7% reported for Q2-2016—slowly growing Europe and massive Chinese debt problems being just a few reasons why not. In the second half of June, Chilean ports were closed for several days in a row due to weather issues, which suggests that copper tightness is unlikely to continue. It should be noted that the rally has been driven by short covering and that longs have not been very aggressive participants. Longs are necessary to extend this rally. As such, copper has likely gotten ahead of itself at this stage considering the supply-demand environment which is still pointing to a surplus. This suggests that any level near $5,000/tonne should be sold. At the same time, ample inventories and still poor demand outlook suggests nickel above $11,000/t is also a candidate for liquidation. And it is not at all certain that supplies of ore into China will drop by as much as some anticipate. In addition, the Brexit issue is likely to reduce risk appetite and the base metals demand outlook. This is not a recipe for aggressive long participation in these markets.

Bart Melek

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Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

SPEC INTEREST AMID OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK BODES WELL FOR MORE PALLADIUM OUTPERFORMANCE Short-Covering Specs Handing the Baton to Longs for a Palladium Breakout

Palladium Palladium has jumped some 24% from the lows recorded in late -May to the current $648/oz, with more upside still in the cards. We would not be surprised to see palladium test the highs near $725/oz recorded back in October 2015. Palladium rallied a large 2.5% today alone, as traders increased their appetite for risk and responded to speculation that the Chinese government will add fiscal and monetary stimulus in order to support growth. The gains witnessed recently can be traced back to specs covering short positions as the industrial and investment demand environment looked more favourable. Given that Chinese auto sales which drive palladium autocatalyst demand have picked up already in recent months, it is reasonable to assume that new stimulus could accelerate this trend and tighten this market. June Chinese auto sales accelerated some 14.9% y/y and posted a 2.1% m/m gain (seasonally adjusted).

1,000

30%

900

20% 800 10% 700 0% 600 -10% -20%

China Auto Sales

Palladium price ($/oz)

Trade recommendation — Long Palladium — Entry: $644.50/oz, Target: $724/oz, Stop: $620/oz

Y/Y Change in Auto Sales

Increases in open interest over the last few days suggest that longs may also be starting to get interested in palladium. Deep deficits, a very favourable precious metals interest rate environment, and technical factors should help facilitate a move towards $724/oz.

China Auto Sales to Steer Palladium Higher 40%

500

Palladium price

Bart Melek *Originally published as a Commodities Chart Logic report on Wednesday, July 13th, 2016

-30% Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16

400

* EM countries: Brazil, Russia, India, Argentina, Turkey, Thailand Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

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Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

ECONOMIC INDICATORS & DATA CALENDAR Commodity markets will have little in the way of economic data to drive them this week, while central banker talk will be nonexistent as well. As such we expect choppy trading action based more on headlines rather than the fundamentals. As such, USD, yield and equity market flux is likely to be the source of commodity price movements. A rising USD and yields should be negatives for commodities, while continued rising stock valuations will tend to have a mixed impact on the complex. One interesting item in the US will be the June release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which has a close relationship with GDP growth. Another contractionary reading, as expected, wouldn't necessarily suggest negative GDP growth, but would set up the potential for a roughly 2% reading for Q2 GDP. This would suggest things are not dire in the US, but also wouldn't advocate that strength abounds either, and certainly would fall short of convincing Fed members that growth in the US is strong enough to overcome international headwinds. Gold/silver would likely to hold onto their key support levels, where they currently sit, unless the USD and yields continue much higher. The two July indicators, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity and the Philly Fed Business Outlook, are unlikely to impact commodity markets but will generate some indication of how the manufacturing sector could fare this month. These indicators have on average pointed to even weaker conditions in the country, despite last month's big jump in the more widely followed ISM Manufacturing index. If the broad regional data suggests a further slowing in manufacturing, it would be likely that the broad measure should pullback from the confidence inspiring jump of last month. If the regional indicators push higher, then worries about a return to the early year slowdown may recede further. Outside of the US, the ECB meeting is likely to pass with little fanfare for any stimulus-related commodity boost. Mr. Draghi will be quite content to continue with the current program, while he awaits further developments first out of the BoE, in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. Meanwhile, base metals should continue to hang onto recent gains, as the latest data out of China surprised expectations on the higher end, and deeper lending activity was seen for the month. This should keep the narrative on one that is stimulative for base metal demand, as the policymakers have basically abandoned attempts to put the country's growth on a structurally stronger footing, in place of boosting short-term activity. As for oil, the DOE data will help to shape the narrative about US supply. If crude drawdowns remain at a lighter pace, while

production rises and implied domestic demand is seen lower for a second week, prices will take a dive lower on concerns that the summer drawing period will not be enough to alleviate the inventory overhang. And this is negative, because we will start to transition into a period of even lighter seasonal crude drawdowns throughout August and September. Mike Dragosits Release TUESDAY (July 19th) 05:00 EUR Construction Output m/m (May) 05:00 EUR Construction Output y/y (May) 05:00 EUR ZEW Survey Expectations (Jul) 08:30 USD Housing Starts (Jun) 08:30 USD Housing Starts m/m (Jun) 08:30 USD Building Permits (Jun) 08:30 USD Building Permits m/m (Jun) WEDNESDAY 04:00 EUR ECB Current Account SA (May) 04:00 EUR Current Account NSA (May) 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (Jul) 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Jul A) 10:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE Distillate Implied Demand (Jul) 21:00 CNY Swift Global Payments CNY (Jun) THURSDAY 02:30 CNY Diesel Exports Volume MT (Jun) 02:30 CNY Natural Gas Imports Volume MT (Jun) 02:30 CNY LNG Imports Volume MT (Jun) 07:45 EUR ECB Main Refinancing Rate (Jul) 07:45 EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (Jul) 07:45 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility (Jul) 07:45 EUR ECB Asset Purchase Target (Jul) 08:30 USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (Jun) 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul) 08:30 USD Continuing Claims (Jul) 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Jul) 09:00 USD FHFA House Price Index m/m (May) 09:45 USD Bloomberg Economic Expectations (Jul) 09:45 USD Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (Jul) 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (Jun) 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales m/m (Jun) 10:00 USD Leading Index (Jun) 10:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Jul) 10:30 USD EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (Jul) FRIDAY 04:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul P) 04:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (Jul P) 04:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (Jul P) 09:45 USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Jul P) 13:00 USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (Jul) 13:00 USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs (Jul) 13:00 USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs (Jul) SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY (July 25th) 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (Jul)

Consensus

Prior

---1165k 0.1% 1150k 1.2%

-0.2% -0.4% 20.2 1164k -0.3% 1138k 0.7%

----8 ----------

36.2bn 34.0bn 7.2% -7.3 -2546k -232k 1213k 4058k -0.2% 16690 10065.9 4511.3 1.9%

---0.0% -0.4% 0.3% EU80bn -0.2 265k 2140k 4.5 0.4% --5.48m -0.9% 0.2% ---

1477201 2.03m 1.43m 0.0% -0.4% 0.3% --0.51 254k 2149k 4.7 0.2% 41 44.7 5.53m 1.8% -0.2% 64 64

52 52.3 52.5 51.5 ----

52.8 52.8 53.1 51.3 447 89 357

-10

-18.3

Time = Eastern Standard Time Source: Bloomberg

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Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS: Commodity (Avg of forward month contracts)

Spot Price

2016

2017

Q1

Q2

Q3F

Q4F

Q1F

Q2F

Q3F

Q4F

2015

Annual 2016F

2017F

Precious Metals Gold Silver Platinum Palladium

1

$/oz $/oz $/oz $/oz

1,335 19.72 1,092 645

1,183 14.85 915 525

1,260 16.78 1,003 568

1,350 18.50 980 560

1,325 18.00 1,050 600

1,295 17.50 1,050 625

1,250 16.75 1,075 700

1,225 16.50 1,100 700

1,200 16.00 1,150 750

1,160 15.70 1,053 692

1,279 17.03 987 563

1,243 16.69 1,094 694

$/lb $/tonne $/lb $/tonne $/lb $/tonne $/lb $/tonne $/lb $/tonne $/lb $/tonne

2.22 4,901 1.00 2,201 0.85 1,867 4.64 10,239 0.75 1,655 6.45 57

2.12 4,678 0.76 1,680 0.79 1,740 3.86 8,508 0.69 1,515 5.32 49

2.15 4,736 0.87 1,919 0.78 1,718 4.00 8,827 0.71 1,572 7.00 55

2.15 4,750 0.84 1,850 0.76 1,676 4.15 9,150 0.70 1,550 6.00 54

2.19 4,825 0.88 1,950 0.80 1,764 4.18 9,215 0.72 1,587 6.50 55

#N/A 2.20 4,850 0.96 2,116 0.90 1,984 4.20 9,259 0.74 1,631 7.50 60

2.21 4,875 1.00 2,205 0.98 2,161 4.20 9,259 0.74 1,631 7.50 62

2.26 4,975 1.05 2,315 1.02 2,249 4.50 9,921 0.76 1,676 8.50 65

2.27 5,000 1.10 2,425 1.02 2,249 4.50 9,921 0.76 1,676 8.50 70

2.50 5,512 0.88 1,931 0.81 1,787 5.38 11,864 0.75 1,664 6.68 56

2.15 4,747 0.84 1,850 0.78 1,724 4.05 8,925 0.71 1,556 6.21 53

2.23 4,925 1.03 2,265 0.98 2,161 4.35 9,590 0.75 1,653 8.00 64

$/bbl $/bbl $/gal $/gal $/MMBtu $/MMBtu CAD/GJ $/lb $/tonne

45 47 1.37 1.39 2.73 1.73 2.10 26 62

34 35 1.08 1.18 1.98 1.35 1.72 33 51

46 47 1.39 1.54 2.25 1.17 1.33 28 52

45 46 1.36 1.47 2.71 1.76 2.24 35 55

56 56 1.60 1.55 2.80 2.20 2.82 35 75

#N/A 60 60 1.80 1.80 2.90 2.20 2.86 40 80

62 61 1.80 2.00 3.10 2.50 3.22 45 80

64 63 1.85 2.00 3.40 2.70 3.46 45 80

64 63 1.95 1.90 3.60 3.00 3.81 48 80

49 54 1.66 1.64 2.63 2.10 2.56 37 59

45 46 1.36 1.44 2.43 1.62 2.03 33 58

63 62 1.85 1.93 3.25 2.60 3.34 45 80

1 1 1

Base Metals Copper

2

Zinc

2

Lead

2

Nickel

2

Aluminium

2

Molybdenum Iron Ore

3 4

Energy WTI Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil Heating Oil (ULSD) Gasoline NYMEX Natural Gas AECO Natural Gas Uranium Newcastle Thermal

5

No tes: F = Fo recast, E = Estimate, A = A ctual; 1. Lo ndo n P M Fix; 2. LM E; 3. M o lybdenum equivalent to mo ly o xide, FOB USA ; 4. CFR China, 62% Fe, dry; 5. Japan CIF steam co al marker-Newcastle So urce: B lo o mberg, TD Securities

MODEL PORTFOLIO TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS ONGOING MODEL TRADES Entry Date Entry

Trade Long Palladium Long Copper/Zinc ratio Long Nickel 1

13/Jul/16 12/Jun/16 23/Nov/15

CLOSED MODEL TRADES Entry Date Entry

Trade Long Zinc-Short Aluminum spread Long Copper/Zinc ratio Short Gold/Silver ratio Long Platinum Long Gold (short-term) Short Gold/Silver Ratio 1 Long WTI (rolling front) 1 Long Palladium Long Gold/Silver ratio Short WTI (rolling front) Short rolling WTI-Brent spread Long Gold/Silver Ratio

644.50 2.20 8,270.00

1,2

10/Nov/15 7/Jun/16 29/Apr/16 4/Feb/16 1/Feb/16 14/Dec/15 13/Nov/15 11/Nov/15 27/Oct/15 3/Nov/15 3/Jun/15 30/Oct/14

132.00 2.28 77.6 909.07 1,128.90 77.6 42.50 577.0 73.40 48.0 (4.00) 71.5

Stop 620.00 2.15 7,500.00

Exit 400.00 2.20 76.0 1,038.00 1,225.00 80.0 32.50 495.0 77.56 42.5 (1.35) 78.2

Current 640.13 2.22 10,280.00

Target 724.00 2.75 12,500.00

P/L -0.7% 0.8% 24.3%

Exit Date

Target

P/L

16/Jun/16 9/Jun/16 19/May/16 18/May/16 23/Mar/16 22/Feb/16 11/Jan/16 7/Jan/16 14/Dec/15 13/Nov/15 15/Sep/15 24/Aug/15

700.00 2.75 69.0 1,175.00 1,300.00 69.0 60.00 800.0 77.50 42.5 (8.00) 78.0

268.00/t -3.5% -2.0% 14.2% 8.5% -3.1% -23.5% -14.2% 5.7% 11.5% -2.65/bbl 9.4%

No tes: Spread trades P &L calculated o n abso lute basis; 1. Trade fro m 2016 Co mmo dity Outlo o k (o r 2016 Glo bal Strategy Outlo o k); 2. Sto p adjusted in June 10, 2016 Co mmo dities Weekly So urce: B lo o mberg, TD Securities

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Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

TD SECURITIES GLOBAL METALS PRICE INDEX The TD Securities Global Metals Price Index (TDGMPI) is an aggregate, weighted price measure based on a basket of spot base and precious metals. TDGMPI weights are based on the metals’ importance in the global economy, with USD dollar value used as a proxy. The TDGMPI encompasses nine metals. The weights are based on a rolling 5 year average contribution of each metal to the total value of global metal production. The nine metals and their current weights are: copper (26.3%), aluminum (16.6%), nickel (5.5%), zinc (4.6%), lead (4.0%), gold (35.6%), silver (4.6%), platinum (2.1%) and palladium (0.8%). Thus, metals which have a greater impact on the value of world metal production receive a greater weighting in the index. This index can be used as an analytical tool, mainly to track how the metals sector is performing over time, but also to compare performance of each of the individual metals and sub-sectors (precious metals, base metals) to the index as a whole.

TD Global Metals Price Index TD Base Metals Price Index TD Precious Metals Price Index

700

450 400

600

350 500

250

300

200

$bn

400

$bn

300

150 200 100 100

50 0 2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

0

2011

TD Global Metals Price Index (lhs) TD Base Metals Price Index (rhs) TD Precious Met als Price Index (rhs)

Source: TD Securities

7

Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

WEEKLY PRICE TABLE Commodity Markets-- Weekly Update Commodity

19-Jul

a week ago

a month ago

a year ago

year to date

437.44 217.07 220.37

433.12 211.80 221.32

415.49 201.89 213.60

447.51 198.86 248.65

416.57 175.92 212.19

1328.84 20.02 1094.80 644.32

1355.35 20.29 1101.38 624.33

1299.00 17.50 970.00 534.60

1134.47 14.89 994.25 615.85

1229.33 16.16 970.20 553.30

1654.75 4900.50 2200.50 10238.75 1867.25 6.45 11.48 433.32 25.90

1653.75 4697.75 2138.50 9839.50 1810.50 6.80 11.30 424.68 26.50

1613.75 4627.25 2026.50 8997.00 1688.75 8.08 10.93 409.91 27.40

1674.75 5508.50 2068.50 11436.00 1852.50 5.83 14.15 325.68 36.25

1552.16 4715.93 1826.62 8780.17 1738.17 6.22 10.95 753.71 29.81

61.80 745.00

62.40 704.00

62.15 587.00

82.80 1048.00

62.10 503.87

45.24 46.97 137.50 139.06 2.73 1.73 1.57

44.76 46.25 141.63 138.35 2.70 1.75 1.58

47.98 49.75 148.17 150.53 2.62 1.56 1.68

50.89 61.61 166.41 192.86 2.87 2.33 1.55

40.23 43.60 1.25 1.37 2.17 1.30 1.50

3.22 3.41 10.68 149.45 74.44 78.13 141.20 112.70

3.32 3.44 10.78 149.30 68.14 79.63 139.45 109.35

3.90 4.17 11.49 140.75 64.57 86.18 137.43 116.72

5.17 4.16 10.60 128.40 65.87 75.68 215.20 146.65

3.87 3.66 9.79 1.26 0.62 73.24 151.92 127.59

2166.44 14514.67 266.02 66.25 2368.07 107.41 6695.42 16497.85

2137.16 14361.88 277.24 66.90 2351.04 108.20 6682.86 15106.98

2071.22 13901.77 232.17 58.20 2268.05 90.34 6021.09 15599.66

2126.64 14642.84 136.72 57.39 2401.08 54.20 6775.08 20650.92

2023.26 13410.21 196.15 52.23 2129.77 73.63 6138.51 16550.81

0.771 1.11 106.03 1.33 6.70 90.62

0.762 1.11 102.80 1.30 6.70 89.94

0.781 1.13 103.94 1.47 6.58 88.54

0.770 1.08 124.27 1.56 6.21 90.91

0.753 1.12 110.99 1.42 6.55 91.34

TD Global Metals Price Indices TD Global Metals Price Index ($bn) TD Global Precious Metals Price Index ($bn) TD Global Base Metals Price Index ($bn)

Precious Metals Gold Spot (US$/oz.) Silver Spot (US$/oz.) Platinum Spot (US$/oz.) Palladium Spot (US$/oz.)

Base Metals & Minerals Aluminum (US$/tonne) Copper (US$/tonne) Zinc (US$/tonne) Nickel (US$/tonne) Lead (US$/tonne) Molybdenum (US$/lb.) Cobalt (US$/lb) Tin (US$/lb) UxC Uranium U308 Swap (US$/lb)

Bulks Thermal Coal Baltic Dry Index

Energy WTI Crude Oil (US$/bbl.) Brent Crude Oil (US$/bbl.) Heating Oil (US$/gal.) Gasoline, RBOB (US$/gal.) NYMEX Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) AECO Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) Denatured Ethanol (US$/gal.)

Softs USDA No. 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat (US$/bush USDA No. 2 Yellow Corn (US$/bush) USDA No. 1 Yellow Soybeans (US$/bush) Coffee (US$/lb) Cotton (US$/lb) Lean Hogs (US$/lb) Cattle, Feeder (US$/lb) Cattle, Live (US$/lb)

Equities S&P 500 S&P TSX Composite S&P TSX Global Gold S&P TSX Global Mining S&P TSX Energy Index XAU Philly Gold & Silver Index FTSE 100 Nikkei 225

Currencies CAD/USD Euro/USD Japanese Yen British Pound Yuan US Trade Weighted Dollar (1973=100) Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

8

Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

ETF MONITOR TABLE TD Securities: Commodities Trade Strategy - Precious Metals ETF Monitor Latest Holdings Last Updated Date Total GOLD ETFs SPDR Gold Trust ETF Securities iShares ZKB Source Sprott Physical Central Fund of CA Xetra Gold Julius Baer NewGold Central Gold Trust Royal Canadian Mint Goldist Total SILVER ETFs iShares Central Fund of CA ETF Securities ZKB Sprott Physical Julius Baer Claymore Silver Bullion Trust Royal Canadian Mint Total PLATINUM ETFs ETF Securities NewPlat ZKB Swiss & Global Source Sprott Physical Deutsche Bank Total PALLADIUM ETFs ETF Securities Standard Bank NewPall ZKB Source Swiss & Global Sprott Physical Deutsche Bank

July 15, 2016 July 18, 2016 July 15, 2016 June 10, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 14, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 14, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 18, 2016 June 10, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 14, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 18, 2016 July 15, 2016 June 10, 2016 July 14, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 18, 2016 June 24, 2016 July 15, 2016 June 10, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 14, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 15, 2016

Ounces 65,113,606 30,956,432 9,311,782 6,955,383 4,566,387 2,811,470 1,766,804 1,672,644 1,575,065 1,509,640 1,208,700 701,335 309,493 51,923 650,107,563 348,580,600 76,964,103 75,898,814 71,894,788 53,899,010 13,770,990 3,373,064 2,978,230 2,747,964 2,156,038 855,053 794,663 270,214 80,845 76,700 42,077 36,486 2,176,377 729,345 581,649 271,327 215,382 142,857 120,813 96,032 18,972

Value ($US Millions) 86,580 41,162 12,382 9,248 6,072 3,738 2,349 2,224 2,094 2,007 1,607 933 412 69 12,986 6,993 1,544 1,523 1,442 1,081 276 68 60 55 2,368 939 873 297 89 84 46 40 1,405 471 376 175 139 92 78 62 12

5-Day Change 30-Day Change Value Value ($US Millions) Ounces ($US Millions) Ounces (374,336) (2,182) 3,673,787 7,329 (591,928) (1,598) 1,996,412 3,807 94,225 (112) 601,440 1,146 72,300 (81) 512,122 937 (127) (118) 53,374 250 20,034 (45) 360,691 577 0 (45) 6,084 78 0 (43) 0 67 0 (41) 0 63 1,600 (37) 51,500 126 30,442 10 87,413 161 (841) (19) (841) 27 (40) (8) (104) 12 0 (1) 0 2 7,245,783 5 12,585,915 1,879 7,127,400 68 11,233,300 1,090 0 (17) 0 197 (362,537) (24) 363,366 201 326,394 (9) 797,435 198 0 (12) 0 138 155,000 0 193,000 39 0 (1) 0 9 0 (1) 0 8 (474) (1) (1,186) 7 (49,985) (62) (106,412) 138 (49,847) (58) (25,382) 71 (35) (3) (88,129) 3 (96) (1) 4,504 35 0 (0) 400 9 (3) (0) 2,197 11 0 (0) 0 5 (3) (0) (3) 4 (4,943) 44 12,587 217 (4,779) 13 1,459 71 (38) 12 830 57 (21) 6 3,881 28 (96) 5 (96) 21 (6) 3 2,015 15 0 3 4,500 14 0 2 0 9 (2) 0 (2) 2

Note: Totals include more than the listed ETFs, hence do not always add up, and the data updates at different times.

Yearly Change Value ($US Millions) Ounces 13,647,818 30,148 8,159,102 16,165 1,841,563 4,191 1,561,860 3,334 129,195 1,206 1,265,656 2,043 525,736 988 (22,000) 366 0 367 (33,700) 315 339,052 654 (3,317) 160 (19,226) 51 0 12 25,603,320 3,843 19,746,100 2,157 0 412 3,237,716 454 (1,679,922) 360 4,841,570 360 (364,000) 68 0 18 (165,600) 14 (12,543) 15 (386,088) (118) (22,471) 81 (335,205) (232) 675 33 (11,680) (2) 19,147 28 (16,860) (11) (19,693) (15) (245,782) (63) (217,442) (103) (183,237) (88) 271,327 175 (6,567) 5 9,722 12 (41,900) (21) (38,530) (20) (39,155) (23)

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities, respective ETF issuer

Bart Melek I Head of Commodity Strategy I 1 416 983 9288 I [email protected] Mike Dragosits I Senior Commodity Strategist I 1 416 983 8075 I [email protected]

9

Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

ETF CHARTS Gold ETF Holdings

Silver ETF Holdings 800

1,900

90

50

Total ETF Holdin gs (lh s) Sp ot Go ld P rice (rhs)

85

Total ETF Holdin gs (lh s)

1,800

Sp ot Silver Pr ice (rh s)

45

75

1,600

70

1,500

65

1,400

60

1,300

55

1,200

50

1,100

40 700 35 650

30

$US/Oz

1,700

Million Ounces

80

$US/Oz

Million Ounces

750

25 600 20 550 15

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

10

500

1,000

45

2011

2016

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities, Respective ETF issuer

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities, Respective ETF issuer

Palladium ETF Holdings

Platinum ETF Holdings 3,000

3,100

2,000

1,000

2,900

1,500

2,700 800 2,500 2,300

700

$US/Oz

1,400

Thousand Ounces

1,600 2,000

$US/Oz

Thousand Ounces

900

1,800

2,500

2,100

1,200

600 1,900

1,000

1,000

500 1,700

Total ETF Holdin gs (lh s)

Total ETF Holdin gs (lh s) Sp ot Pa lladium Price (rh s)

Sp ot Pla tin um P rice (r hs)

500

800 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities, Respective ETF issuer

1,500

400 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities, Respective ETF issuer

10

Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

CHART PACKAGE — FORWARD CURVES COMEX Silver

COMEX Gold

22.0 21.0

1,400

20.0

1,350

19.0

$US/Troy Oz

$US/Troy Oz

1,450

1,300 1,250

18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0

1,200

14.0

1,150

13.0 1

1,100 1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

Week ago

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Months

Today

Months Today

2

17

Month ago

Week ago

Month ago

Year ago

Year ago

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

LME Aluminum 0.84

0.80

2.85 2.80

0.83

0.78

0.82

2.75 2.65 2.60 2.55

0.81

0.76

2.70

0.80 0.74

0.79

0.72

0.78 0.77

2.50

0.70

0.76

2.45 2.40

0.68

2.35

0.66

2.30 1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

$US/lb

2.28 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.20 2.18 2.16 2.14 2.12 2.10 2.08 2.06 2.04 2.02

$US/lb

$US/lb

LME Copper

0.75 0.74 0.73 1

3

5

7

23 Today

9

11 13 15 Months Week ago

17

19

21

Month ago

23 Year ago (rhs)

Months Today

Week ago

Month ago

Year ago (rhs)

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

LME Nickel

LME Zinc 5.35

4.75

5.30

4.65

5.25

4.55

5.20

$US/lb

4.45

5.15

4.35

5.10

4.25

5.05

4.15 4.05

5.00

3.95

4.95

3.85

4.90

3.75

4.85 1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

1.10 1.05 1.00 $US/lb

4.85

0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 1

3

5

7

Months Week ago

Month ago

11

13

15

17

Months Today

Today

9

Week ago

Month ago

Year ago

Year ago (rhs)

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

11

Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

CHART PACKAGE — FORWARD CURVES (CONTINUED) ICE Brent Crude Oil

50

45

40 1

5

80

63

70 60

59 $US/bbl

$US/bbl

55

65 61

$US/bbl

70 69 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56

57

50

55

40

53

30

51

20

49

10

47

0

45 1

9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57

4

7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46

Months Today

Week ago

$US/bbl

NYMEX WTI Crude Oil 60

Months

Month ago

Year ago (rhs)

Today

Week ago

Month ago

Year ago (rhs)

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

NYMEX 2:1:1 Crack Spread

NYMEX Natural Gas

26

4.00

24

3.80

22

3.60 3.40 $US/MMBtu

$US/bbl

20 18 16 14

3.20 3.00 2.80 2.60

12

2.40

10

2.20 2.00

8 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1

12

5

9

13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 Months

Months Today

Week ago

Month ago

Year ago Today

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

Week ago

Month ago

Year ago

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

NYMEX Coal

NYMEX Uranium 40

43

38 36

42 $US/Ton

$US/Ton

34 41

40

32 30 28 26 24

39

22 38

20 1

2

3

4

5

1

2

3

4

5

Months Today

Week ago

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

Month ago

Year ago

Today

Week ago

6

7 8 Months Month ago

9

10

11

12

Year ago

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

12

Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

CHART PACKAGE — VOLATILITY CURVES COMEX Silver 40

ATM Implied Vol (%)

ATM Implied Vol (%)

COMEX Gold 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10

35

30

25

20 0.25 0.5 0.75

1

Today

2

3 6 Months

Week ago

12

18

24

36

0.25 0.5 0.75

60

2

3

6

12

18

24

36

60

Months Month ago

Today

Year ago

NYMEX Platinum

Week ago

Month ago

Year ago

NYMEX Palladium

30 35

28 26

ATM Implied Vol (%)

ATM Implied Vol (%)

1

24 22 20 18

30

25

20

16 14 0.25 0.5 0.75

1

2

3

6

12

18

24

36

60

15 0.25 0.5 0.75

1

2

Months Today

Week ago

3

6

12

18

24

36

60

Months Month ago

Year ago

Today

Week ago

Month ago

Year ago

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

13

Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

CHART PACKAGE — INDUSTRIAL METAL INVENTORIES Copper Warehouse Inventories

Aluminum Warehouse Inventories 60

Inventory at LME + SHFE (lhs)

2.00

35

1.80

30

1.60

25

5.30 Inventory at LME, SHFE, COMEX (lhs)

Cop per Price (rhs)

Alumin um Price (rhs)

4.80

1.40 1.20

30

3.30

20

2.80 15

2.30

1.00

20

1.80

10

0.80

1.30

10

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

0.60

5

0.40

0 1980

0.80

2015

0.30 1985

Inventory at LME + SHFE (lhs)

2.00

100

1.80

90

1.60

80

1.40

70

Lea d Price (rhs)

1.20 1.00

15

2015

2010

50

0 1980

0.00 2005

20.00

60 15.00

10.00

5.00

10

0.20 2000

25.00

Nickel Price (rhs)

20

0.40

5

30.00

30

0.60

1995

2010

40

0.80 10

Days Supply

20

1990

2005

Inventory at LME (lhs)

$US/lb

Days Supply

25

1985

2000

Nickel Warehouse Inventories

Lead Warehouse Inventories

0 1980

1995

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

30

1990

$US/lb

0 1980

3.80

$US/lb

40

Days Supply

4.30

$US/lb

Days Supply

50

2015

0.00 1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

Zinc Warehouse Inventories 90

2.20

Inventory at LME + SHFE (lhs)

80

2.00

70

1.80 1.60

60

1.40 50 1.20

$US/lb

Days Supply

Zinc Price (rhs)

40 1.00 30

0.80

20

0.60

10

0.40

0 1980

0.20 1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities

14

Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

CHART PACKAGE — PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES U.S. Crude Oil Inventory

570

Gasoline Inventory

270 260 250

470

MMbbl

MMbbl

520

420

240 230 220 210

370

Prior 5yr Avg

2015

Crude Oil Inventory at Cushing, OK 170

55

160

Dec-23

Nov-25

Oct-28

Sep-2

Sep-30

Aug-5

Jul-8

Jun-10

May-13

Apr-15

140

Prior 5yr Range

Prior 5yr Avg

Dec-23

Oct-28

2015

Nov-25

Jul-8

Jun-10

May-13

Apr-15

Mar-18

Feb-19

Jan-22

2016

Source: DOE, TD Securities

Sep-30

Dec-23

Nov-25

Oct-28

Sep-30

Sep-2

2015

100

Oct-30

Prior 5yr Avg

Aug-5

May-13

Mar-18

Feb-19

Prior 5yr Range

Jul-8

110 Jun-10

15 Apr-15

120

Sep-2

130

25 Jan-22

Mar-18

150

Dec-25

35

Dec-25

2016

Heating Oil (ULSD) Inventory

Nov-27

45

Nov-27

2015

Aug-5

MMbbl

65

Oct-30

Prior 5yr Avg

Source: DOE, TD Securities

180

MMbbl

Feb-19

Prior 5yr Range

2016

Source: DOE, TD Securities

75

Jan-22

Dec-25

Oct-30

Nov-27

190

Dec-23

Nov-25

Oct-28

Sep-30

Sep-2

Jul-8

Jun-10

May-13

Apr-15

Mar-18

Feb-19

Jan-22

Dec-25

Nov-27

Oct-30

Prior 5yr Range

Aug-5

200 320

2016

Source: DOE, TD Securities

US Natural Gas Storage Level

Refinery Utilization 4,500 4,000 95.0%

Storage (Bcf)

3,500

5yr Avg

1,000

2015

500

2016 23/Dec

25/Nov

28/Oct

30/Sep

2/Sep

5/Aug

8/Jul

10/Jun

13/May

15/Apr

Dec-23

Nov-25

Oct-28

2016

5yr Range

1,500

18/Mar

2015

Sep-30

Jul-8

Jun-10

May-13

Apr-15

Mar-18

5yr Avg

2,000

19/Feb

5yr Range Source: DOE, TD Securities

Feb-19

Jan-22

Dec-25

Nov-27

Oct-30

75.0%

Sep-2

80.0%

2,500

22/Jan

85.0%

3,041 Bcf

3,000

25/Dec

90.0%

Aug-5

Operating Capacity Utilization (%)

100.0%

Source: EIA, TD Securities

15

Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

CHART PACKAGE — CFTC COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS Net Contracts

COMEX Gold

$UD/oz

400,000

Net Contracts

1,700

100,000

350,000

1,600

90,000

300,000

1,500

250,000

1,400

200,000

1,300

50,000

150,000

1,200

40,000

100,000

1,100

50,000

1,000

COMEX Silver

$UD/oz 35 30

80,000 70,000

25

60,000

20

30,000 20,000

Gold Net Spec Position (lhs)

-

Gold Price (rhs)

NYMEX Platinum

$UD/oz

60,000

1,800 1,700

50,000

1,600 1,500

40,000

1,400

Oct-16

Jul-16

Apr-16

Oct-15

Jan-16

Jul-15

Apr-15

Oct-14

Silver Net Spec Position (lhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net Contracts

Jan-15

Jul-14

Apr-14

Oct-13

Jan-14

Jul-13

10

Jan-13

Oct-16

Jul-16

Apr-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Oct-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Jul-14

Oct-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

900

Apr-13

-

15

10,000

Silver Price (rhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net Contracts

NYMEX Palladium

$UD/oz

35,000

1,000

30,000

900

25,000

800

20,000

1,300

30,000 20,000

700

1,200

15,000

1,100

10,000

600

1,000

Platinum Price (rhs)

COMEX Copper

$UD/lb

20,000

430

10,000

Oct-16

Jul-16

Apr-16

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Palladium Net Spec Position (lhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net Contracts

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

400

Jan-13

Oct-16

Jul-16

Apr-16

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Platinum Net Spec Position (lhs)

-

Oct-13

800

-

500

5,000

Jul-13

900

Apr-13

10,000

Palladium Price (rhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net Contracts

NYMEX & ICE Natural Gas

$UD/MMbtu

600,000

6.50

500,000

6.00

380

5.50

400,000

Copper Price (rhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Natural Gas Net Spec Position (lhs)

Oct-16

Jul-16

Apr-16

Jan-16

Oct-15

1.50

Jul-15

(200,000)

Apr-15

2.00

Jan-15

Oct-16

Jul-16

Apr-16

Oct-15

Jan-16

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Jan-13

Apr-13

Copper Net Spec Position (lhs)

2.50

(100,000)

Oct-14

180

(50,000)

3.00

-

Jul-14

(40,000)

3.50

Apr-14

230

100,000

Oct-13

(30,000)

4.00

Jan-14

280

4.50

200,000

Jul-13

(20,000)

5.00

300,000

Apr-13

330

(10,000)

Jan-13

-

Natural Gas Price (rhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

16

Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

CHART PACKAGE — CFTC COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS $UD/bbl

250,000

120

110

200,000

110

100

150,000

100

90

100,000

90

80

50,000

80

-

70

WTI Net Spec Position (lhs)

WTI Price (rhs)

Brent Net Spec Position (lhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net Contracts

NYMEX Gasoline

$UD/gal

120,000

350

100,000

300

80,000

250

Jul-16

20

Oct-16

(250,000)

Apr-16

30

20

Jan-16

(200,000)

Jul-15

40

30

Oct-15

(150,000)

Apr-15

50

40

Jan-15

Jul-16

(100,000)

Oct-16

Apr-16

Jan-16

Jul-15

Oct-15

Apr-15

Oct-14

Jan-15

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Jul-13

Oct-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

-

60

50

Jul-14

100,000

(50,000)

Oct-14

200,000

70

60

Jan-13

300,000

Apr-14

400,000

$UD/bbl

120

Jan-14

500,000

NYMEX & ICE Brent Crude Oil

Jul-13

600,000

Net Contracts

Oct-13

NYMEX & ICE WTI Crude Oil

Apr-13

Net Contracts

Brent Price (rhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Net Contracts

NYMEX Heating Oil

$UD/gal

50,000 40,000 290

30,000 20,000

240

10,000 60,000

200

190

(10,000) 40,000

150

20,000

100

(20,000) 140

(30,000) (40,000)

Gasoline Net Spec Position (lhs)

Gasoline Price (rhs)

90

Heating Oil Net Spec Position (lhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

Oct-16

Jul-16

Apr-16

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

(50,000)

Apr-13

Oct-16

Jul-16

Apr-16

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Oct-14

Jan-15

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

50

Jan-13

-

Heating Oil Price (rhs)

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities

COMMODITIES RESEARCH TEAM: Bart Melek Head of Global Commodity Strategy [email protected] +1 416 983 9288

Mike Dragosits Senior Commodity Strategist [email protected] +1 416 983 8075 17

Commodities Weekly

18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy

GLOBAL STRATEGY TEAM Commodities Strategy Bart Melek

Head of Global Commodity Strategy

1 416 983 9288

Mike Dragosits

Senior Commodity Strategist

1 416 983 8075

Global Strategy Richard Kelly

Head of Global Strategy

44 20 7786 8448

Global Macro Strategy David Tulk

Head of Global Macro Strategy

1 416 983 0445

Millan Mulraine

Deputy Chief US Macro Strategist

1 212 827 7186

Annette Beacher

Chief Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist

Jacqui Douglas

Chief European Macro Strategist

44 20 7786 8439

James Rossiter

Senior Global Strategist

44 20 7786 8422

Robert Both

Macro Strategist

65 6500 8047

1 416 983 0859

Global Rates Strategy

Global Strategy

Priya Misra

Head of Global Rates Strategy

1 212 827 7156

Gennadiy Goldberg

US Rates Strategist

1 212 827 7180

Cheng Chen

US Rates Strategist

1 212 827 7183

Andrew Kelvin

Canada Rates Strategist

1 416 983 7184

Prash Newnaha

Asia/Pac Rates Strategist

Renuka Fernandez

Quantitative Strategist

44 20 7786 8408

44 20 7786 8420

65 6500 8047

FX Strategy Ned Rumpeltin

European Head of FX Strategy

USA

Mark McCormick

North American Head of FX Strategy

1 212 827 7190

Canada

Mazen Issa

Senior FX Strategist

1 212 827 7182

Australia New Zealand

Emerging Markets Strategy

UK

Cristian Maggio

Head of Emerging Markets Strategy

44 20 7786 8436

Europe

Paul Fage

Senior Emerging Markets Strategist

44 20 7786 8424

Emerging Markets

Sacha Tihanyi

Senior Emerging Markets Strategist

1 212 827 7043

FX & Commodities

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