Commodities Weekly Rates, FX, and Commodities Strategy
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
WANING BREXIT-RELATED ANGST BOOSTS COMMODITIES, HURTS GOLD
COMMODITIES UPDATE & WEEK AHEAD DRIVERS
2
COMMODITIES CHART LOGIC: SPEC INTEREST AMID OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK BODES WELL FOR MORE PALLADIUM OUTPERFORMANCE
TD SECURITIES GLOBAL METALS INDEX
7
4
WEEKLY PRICE TABLE
8
ECONOMIC INDICATORS & DATA CALENDAR
5
ETF MONITOR TABLE & CHARTS
9
COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS
6
CHART PACKAGE
11
MODEL PORTFOLIO TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS
6
RESEARCH TEAM
18
Weekly Commodity Movers & Shakers
Commodity Price Percent Change (8-Jul-16 to 15-Jul-16) Palladium
4.9%
Copper
4.3%
Nickel
4.1%
Gasoline
3.7%
Lead
3.1%
Change in Price (%)
Zinc
2.9%
Brent
1.8%
WTI
1.2%
Coal
1.0%
S&P GSCI Index
0.9%
Aluminum
0.1%
Silver
-0.2%
Platinum
-1.1%
AECO NG
-1.1%
Gold Uranium
optimism and deficit projections
Investors sent copper higher as China data beats expectations and markets consider weaker Chilean exports
Lead and zinc get lift from a rise in risk appetite
Crude oil lingers near support as higher-than -expected gasoline inventories put demand into question
-0.3%
Heating Oil
Henry Hub NG
Palladium outperforms amid China demand
-1.6%
Gold sees some profit-taking amongst waning Brexit angst, higher yields, and a record high US stock market
-2.1% -2.3%
Molybdenum-5.1%
1
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
COMMODITIES UPDATE & WEEK AHEAD DRIVERS
Rising Gasoline Inventories, Lower Crack Spreads Forcing Crude Oil Lower
Crude oil posts lackluster gains in the face of higher inventories and new surplus concerns
Base metals and palladium get a lift from monetary easing and China's recovery hopes
Gold trading lower as renewed risk appetite, record US equities, and new growth optimism prompt specs to cut length
242
1.2
241
1.1
240
1.0 239 0.9 0.8 0.7
mn b/d
less Brexit-related market volatility
Indexed to Apr 25, 2016
Commodities rise amid central bank stimulus chatter and
1.3
238 WTI Price
237
WTI Crushing Crack Spread DOE Gasoline Inventories (RHS)
0.6 25-Apr 10-May 25-May
236 9-Jun
24-Jun
9-Jul
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
Despite the angst associated with the UK vote to leave the EU, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index, which tracks the majority of energy, metals and agricultural commodities, continued to hold onto quite a decent performance so far this year.
Commodities Still Showing a Good YTD Performance Despite Brexit Angst
term weakness in the face of an expected longer-term improved supply-demand outlook, it is likely that we will see volatility but not convincingly in either direction for now. Market flux is likely to be augmented by the reduction in liquidity associated with the fact that many traders will be going on their summer vacations and many desks unwilling to commit capital. Similarly, investors have sharply cut their net long gold holdings following a week of very strong equity market performance, less Brexit-related angst and surprising strong US data which is prompting some to speculate that the next Fed rate hike may come sooner than many now think.
410 390 370
Index
350 330 310 290 S&P GS Commodity Index
270 250 Jan 04
Jan 25
Feb 15
Mar 07
Mar 28
Apr 18
May May 09 30
Jun 20
Jul 11
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
Nonetheless, there is some evidence emerging that investors are reluctant to take this year's stars, oil and gold, higher. Surprisingly, high gasoline inventories and dropping crack spreads are prompting money managers to voice concerns that the road to supply rebalancing may by choppy, and that has prompted them to cut long exposure while buildings brand new short positions. WTI crude oil, which had nearly doubled from its February lows some six weeks ago, continues to trade near technical support at around $45/bbls. Since the market is now responding to short-
Very robust spec long liquidations have dragged gold lower for the first the first time in some seven weeks. Traders are taking profits following the surge in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, which has triggered a big increase in demand for safe-haven assets such as precious metals. With equity markets surging, following the promises to hike central bank liquidity and monetary stimulus, and the US economy once again showing respectable economic data, the drivers behind the recent gold rally are now fading and entering consolidation mode. But since global yields will very likely near record lows, gold should once again move materially higher on the first signs showing a reduction in risk appetite and lower equity valuations. In contrast, industrial metals received support from a growing sense that additional stimulus coming from the PBoC, the Chinese government, the BOE and others could work in tandem with stronger-than-expected Chinese economic numbers to tighten fundamentals. Copper led the charge higher, with nickel following close behind.
2
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
But, we should not expect copper or nickel to rip higher. Stimulus notwithstanding, China growth is not going to go far above the 6.7% reported for Q2-2016—slowly growing Europe and massive Chinese debt problems being just a few reasons why not. In the second half of June, Chilean ports were closed for several days in a row due to weather issues, which suggests that copper tightness is unlikely to continue. It should be noted that the rally has been driven by short covering and that longs have not been very aggressive participants. Longs are necessary to extend this rally. As such, copper has likely gotten ahead of itself at this stage considering the supply-demand environment which is still pointing to a surplus. This suggests that any level near $5,000/tonne should be sold. At the same time, ample inventories and still poor demand outlook suggests nickel above $11,000/t is also a candidate for liquidation. And it is not at all certain that supplies of ore into China will drop by as much as some anticipate. In addition, the Brexit issue is likely to reduce risk appetite and the base metals demand outlook. This is not a recipe for aggressive long participation in these markets.
Bart Melek
3
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
SPEC INTEREST AMID OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK BODES WELL FOR MORE PALLADIUM OUTPERFORMANCE Short-Covering Specs Handing the Baton to Longs for a Palladium Breakout
Palladium Palladium has jumped some 24% from the lows recorded in late -May to the current $648/oz, with more upside still in the cards. We would not be surprised to see palladium test the highs near $725/oz recorded back in October 2015. Palladium rallied a large 2.5% today alone, as traders increased their appetite for risk and responded to speculation that the Chinese government will add fiscal and monetary stimulus in order to support growth. The gains witnessed recently can be traced back to specs covering short positions as the industrial and investment demand environment looked more favourable. Given that Chinese auto sales which drive palladium autocatalyst demand have picked up already in recent months, it is reasonable to assume that new stimulus could accelerate this trend and tighten this market. June Chinese auto sales accelerated some 14.9% y/y and posted a 2.1% m/m gain (seasonally adjusted).
1,000
30%
900
20% 800 10% 700 0% 600 -10% -20%
China Auto Sales
Palladium price ($/oz)
Trade recommendation — Long Palladium — Entry: $644.50/oz, Target: $724/oz, Stop: $620/oz
Y/Y Change in Auto Sales
Increases in open interest over the last few days suggest that longs may also be starting to get interested in palladium. Deep deficits, a very favourable precious metals interest rate environment, and technical factors should help facilitate a move towards $724/oz.
China Auto Sales to Steer Palladium Higher 40%
500
Palladium price
Bart Melek *Originally published as a Commodities Chart Logic report on Wednesday, July 13th, 2016
-30% Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16
400
* EM countries: Brazil, Russia, India, Argentina, Turkey, Thailand Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
4
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
ECONOMIC INDICATORS & DATA CALENDAR Commodity markets will have little in the way of economic data to drive them this week, while central banker talk will be nonexistent as well. As such we expect choppy trading action based more on headlines rather than the fundamentals. As such, USD, yield and equity market flux is likely to be the source of commodity price movements. A rising USD and yields should be negatives for commodities, while continued rising stock valuations will tend to have a mixed impact on the complex. One interesting item in the US will be the June release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which has a close relationship with GDP growth. Another contractionary reading, as expected, wouldn't necessarily suggest negative GDP growth, but would set up the potential for a roughly 2% reading for Q2 GDP. This would suggest things are not dire in the US, but also wouldn't advocate that strength abounds either, and certainly would fall short of convincing Fed members that growth in the US is strong enough to overcome international headwinds. Gold/silver would likely to hold onto their key support levels, where they currently sit, unless the USD and yields continue much higher. The two July indicators, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity and the Philly Fed Business Outlook, are unlikely to impact commodity markets but will generate some indication of how the manufacturing sector could fare this month. These indicators have on average pointed to even weaker conditions in the country, despite last month's big jump in the more widely followed ISM Manufacturing index. If the broad regional data suggests a further slowing in manufacturing, it would be likely that the broad measure should pullback from the confidence inspiring jump of last month. If the regional indicators push higher, then worries about a return to the early year slowdown may recede further. Outside of the US, the ECB meeting is likely to pass with little fanfare for any stimulus-related commodity boost. Mr. Draghi will be quite content to continue with the current program, while he awaits further developments first out of the BoE, in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. Meanwhile, base metals should continue to hang onto recent gains, as the latest data out of China surprised expectations on the higher end, and deeper lending activity was seen for the month. This should keep the narrative on one that is stimulative for base metal demand, as the policymakers have basically abandoned attempts to put the country's growth on a structurally stronger footing, in place of boosting short-term activity. As for oil, the DOE data will help to shape the narrative about US supply. If crude drawdowns remain at a lighter pace, while
production rises and implied domestic demand is seen lower for a second week, prices will take a dive lower on concerns that the summer drawing period will not be enough to alleviate the inventory overhang. And this is negative, because we will start to transition into a period of even lighter seasonal crude drawdowns throughout August and September. Mike Dragosits Release TUESDAY (July 19th) 05:00 EUR Construction Output m/m (May) 05:00 EUR Construction Output y/y (May) 05:00 EUR ZEW Survey Expectations (Jul) 08:30 USD Housing Starts (Jun) 08:30 USD Housing Starts m/m (Jun) 08:30 USD Building Permits (Jun) 08:30 USD Building Permits m/m (Jun) WEDNESDAY 04:00 EUR ECB Current Account SA (May) 04:00 EUR Current Account NSA (May) 07:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (Jul) 10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Jul A) 10:30 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE Gasoline Implied Demand (Jul) 10:30 USD DOE Distillate Implied Demand (Jul) 21:00 CNY Swift Global Payments CNY (Jun) THURSDAY 02:30 CNY Diesel Exports Volume MT (Jun) 02:30 CNY Natural Gas Imports Volume MT (Jun) 02:30 CNY LNG Imports Volume MT (Jun) 07:45 EUR ECB Main Refinancing Rate (Jul) 07:45 EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (Jul) 07:45 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility (Jul) 07:45 EUR ECB Asset Purchase Target (Jul) 08:30 USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (Jun) 08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul) 08:30 USD Continuing Claims (Jul) 08:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Jul) 09:00 USD FHFA House Price Index m/m (May) 09:45 USD Bloomberg Economic Expectations (Jul) 09:45 USD Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (Jul) 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales (Jun) 10:00 USD Existing Home Sales m/m (Jun) 10:00 USD Leading Index (Jun) 10:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Jul) 10:30 USD EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (Jul) FRIDAY 04:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul P) 04:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI (Jul P) 04:00 EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (Jul P) 09:45 USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI (Jul P) 13:00 USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (Jul) 13:00 USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Gas Rigs (Jul) 13:00 USD Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs (Jul) SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY (July 25th) 10:30 USD Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (Jul)
Consensus
Prior
---1165k 0.1% 1150k 1.2%
-0.2% -0.4% 20.2 1164k -0.3% 1138k 0.7%
----8 ----------
36.2bn 34.0bn 7.2% -7.3 -2546k -232k 1213k 4058k -0.2% 16690 10065.9 4511.3 1.9%
---0.0% -0.4% 0.3% EU80bn -0.2 265k 2140k 4.5 0.4% --5.48m -0.9% 0.2% ---
1477201 2.03m 1.43m 0.0% -0.4% 0.3% --0.51 254k 2149k 4.7 0.2% 41 44.7 5.53m 1.8% -0.2% 64 64
52 52.3 52.5 51.5 ----
52.8 52.8 53.1 51.3 447 89 357
-10
-18.3
Time = Eastern Standard Time Source: Bloomberg
5
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS: Commodity (Avg of forward month contracts)
Spot Price
2016
2017
Q1
Q2
Q3F
Q4F
Q1F
Q2F
Q3F
Q4F
2015
Annual 2016F
2017F
Precious Metals Gold Silver Platinum Palladium
1
$/oz $/oz $/oz $/oz
1,335 19.72 1,092 645
1,183 14.85 915 525
1,260 16.78 1,003 568
1,350 18.50 980 560
1,325 18.00 1,050 600
1,295 17.50 1,050 625
1,250 16.75 1,075 700
1,225 16.50 1,100 700
1,200 16.00 1,150 750
1,160 15.70 1,053 692
1,279 17.03 987 563
1,243 16.69 1,094 694
$/lb $/tonne $/lb $/tonne $/lb $/tonne $/lb $/tonne $/lb $/tonne $/lb $/tonne
2.22 4,901 1.00 2,201 0.85 1,867 4.64 10,239 0.75 1,655 6.45 57
2.12 4,678 0.76 1,680 0.79 1,740 3.86 8,508 0.69 1,515 5.32 49
2.15 4,736 0.87 1,919 0.78 1,718 4.00 8,827 0.71 1,572 7.00 55
2.15 4,750 0.84 1,850 0.76 1,676 4.15 9,150 0.70 1,550 6.00 54
2.19 4,825 0.88 1,950 0.80 1,764 4.18 9,215 0.72 1,587 6.50 55
#N/A 2.20 4,850 0.96 2,116 0.90 1,984 4.20 9,259 0.74 1,631 7.50 60
2.21 4,875 1.00 2,205 0.98 2,161 4.20 9,259 0.74 1,631 7.50 62
2.26 4,975 1.05 2,315 1.02 2,249 4.50 9,921 0.76 1,676 8.50 65
2.27 5,000 1.10 2,425 1.02 2,249 4.50 9,921 0.76 1,676 8.50 70
2.50 5,512 0.88 1,931 0.81 1,787 5.38 11,864 0.75 1,664 6.68 56
2.15 4,747 0.84 1,850 0.78 1,724 4.05 8,925 0.71 1,556 6.21 53
2.23 4,925 1.03 2,265 0.98 2,161 4.35 9,590 0.75 1,653 8.00 64
$/bbl $/bbl $/gal $/gal $/MMBtu $/MMBtu CAD/GJ $/lb $/tonne
45 47 1.37 1.39 2.73 1.73 2.10 26 62
34 35 1.08 1.18 1.98 1.35 1.72 33 51
46 47 1.39 1.54 2.25 1.17 1.33 28 52
45 46 1.36 1.47 2.71 1.76 2.24 35 55
56 56 1.60 1.55 2.80 2.20 2.82 35 75
#N/A 60 60 1.80 1.80 2.90 2.20 2.86 40 80
62 61 1.80 2.00 3.10 2.50 3.22 45 80
64 63 1.85 2.00 3.40 2.70 3.46 45 80
64 63 1.95 1.90 3.60 3.00 3.81 48 80
49 54 1.66 1.64 2.63 2.10 2.56 37 59
45 46 1.36 1.44 2.43 1.62 2.03 33 58
63 62 1.85 1.93 3.25 2.60 3.34 45 80
1 1 1
Base Metals Copper
2
Zinc
2
Lead
2
Nickel
2
Aluminium
2
Molybdenum Iron Ore
3 4
Energy WTI Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil Heating Oil (ULSD) Gasoline NYMEX Natural Gas AECO Natural Gas Uranium Newcastle Thermal
5
No tes: F = Fo recast, E = Estimate, A = A ctual; 1. Lo ndo n P M Fix; 2. LM E; 3. M o lybdenum equivalent to mo ly o xide, FOB USA ; 4. CFR China, 62% Fe, dry; 5. Japan CIF steam co al marker-Newcastle So urce: B lo o mberg, TD Securities
MODEL PORTFOLIO TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS ONGOING MODEL TRADES Entry Date Entry
Trade Long Palladium Long Copper/Zinc ratio Long Nickel 1
13/Jul/16 12/Jun/16 23/Nov/15
CLOSED MODEL TRADES Entry Date Entry
Trade Long Zinc-Short Aluminum spread Long Copper/Zinc ratio Short Gold/Silver ratio Long Platinum Long Gold (short-term) Short Gold/Silver Ratio 1 Long WTI (rolling front) 1 Long Palladium Long Gold/Silver ratio Short WTI (rolling front) Short rolling WTI-Brent spread Long Gold/Silver Ratio
644.50 2.20 8,270.00
1,2
10/Nov/15 7/Jun/16 29/Apr/16 4/Feb/16 1/Feb/16 14/Dec/15 13/Nov/15 11/Nov/15 27/Oct/15 3/Nov/15 3/Jun/15 30/Oct/14
132.00 2.28 77.6 909.07 1,128.90 77.6 42.50 577.0 73.40 48.0 (4.00) 71.5
Stop 620.00 2.15 7,500.00
Exit 400.00 2.20 76.0 1,038.00 1,225.00 80.0 32.50 495.0 77.56 42.5 (1.35) 78.2
Current 640.13 2.22 10,280.00
Target 724.00 2.75 12,500.00
P/L -0.7% 0.8% 24.3%
Exit Date
Target
P/L
16/Jun/16 9/Jun/16 19/May/16 18/May/16 23/Mar/16 22/Feb/16 11/Jan/16 7/Jan/16 14/Dec/15 13/Nov/15 15/Sep/15 24/Aug/15
700.00 2.75 69.0 1,175.00 1,300.00 69.0 60.00 800.0 77.50 42.5 (8.00) 78.0
268.00/t -3.5% -2.0% 14.2% 8.5% -3.1% -23.5% -14.2% 5.7% 11.5% -2.65/bbl 9.4%
No tes: Spread trades P &L calculated o n abso lute basis; 1. Trade fro m 2016 Co mmo dity Outlo o k (o r 2016 Glo bal Strategy Outlo o k); 2. Sto p adjusted in June 10, 2016 Co mmo dities Weekly So urce: B lo o mberg, TD Securities
6
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
TD SECURITIES GLOBAL METALS PRICE INDEX The TD Securities Global Metals Price Index (TDGMPI) is an aggregate, weighted price measure based on a basket of spot base and precious metals. TDGMPI weights are based on the metals’ importance in the global economy, with USD dollar value used as a proxy. The TDGMPI encompasses nine metals. The weights are based on a rolling 5 year average contribution of each metal to the total value of global metal production. The nine metals and their current weights are: copper (26.3%), aluminum (16.6%), nickel (5.5%), zinc (4.6%), lead (4.0%), gold (35.6%), silver (4.6%), platinum (2.1%) and palladium (0.8%). Thus, metals which have a greater impact on the value of world metal production receive a greater weighting in the index. This index can be used as an analytical tool, mainly to track how the metals sector is performing over time, but also to compare performance of each of the individual metals and sub-sectors (precious metals, base metals) to the index as a whole.
TD Global Metals Price Index TD Base Metals Price Index TD Precious Metals Price Index
700
450 400
600
350 500
250
300
200
$bn
400
$bn
300
150 200 100 100
50 0 2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
2011
TD Global Metals Price Index (lhs) TD Base Metals Price Index (rhs) TD Precious Met als Price Index (rhs)
Source: TD Securities
7
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
WEEKLY PRICE TABLE Commodity Markets-- Weekly Update Commodity
19-Jul
a week ago
a month ago
a year ago
year to date
437.44 217.07 220.37
433.12 211.80 221.32
415.49 201.89 213.60
447.51 198.86 248.65
416.57 175.92 212.19
1328.84 20.02 1094.80 644.32
1355.35 20.29 1101.38 624.33
1299.00 17.50 970.00 534.60
1134.47 14.89 994.25 615.85
1229.33 16.16 970.20 553.30
1654.75 4900.50 2200.50 10238.75 1867.25 6.45 11.48 433.32 25.90
1653.75 4697.75 2138.50 9839.50 1810.50 6.80 11.30 424.68 26.50
1613.75 4627.25 2026.50 8997.00 1688.75 8.08 10.93 409.91 27.40
1674.75 5508.50 2068.50 11436.00 1852.50 5.83 14.15 325.68 36.25
1552.16 4715.93 1826.62 8780.17 1738.17 6.22 10.95 753.71 29.81
61.80 745.00
62.40 704.00
62.15 587.00
82.80 1048.00
62.10 503.87
45.24 46.97 137.50 139.06 2.73 1.73 1.57
44.76 46.25 141.63 138.35 2.70 1.75 1.58
47.98 49.75 148.17 150.53 2.62 1.56 1.68
50.89 61.61 166.41 192.86 2.87 2.33 1.55
40.23 43.60 1.25 1.37 2.17 1.30 1.50
3.22 3.41 10.68 149.45 74.44 78.13 141.20 112.70
3.32 3.44 10.78 149.30 68.14 79.63 139.45 109.35
3.90 4.17 11.49 140.75 64.57 86.18 137.43 116.72
5.17 4.16 10.60 128.40 65.87 75.68 215.20 146.65
3.87 3.66 9.79 1.26 0.62 73.24 151.92 127.59
2166.44 14514.67 266.02 66.25 2368.07 107.41 6695.42 16497.85
2137.16 14361.88 277.24 66.90 2351.04 108.20 6682.86 15106.98
2071.22 13901.77 232.17 58.20 2268.05 90.34 6021.09 15599.66
2126.64 14642.84 136.72 57.39 2401.08 54.20 6775.08 20650.92
2023.26 13410.21 196.15 52.23 2129.77 73.63 6138.51 16550.81
0.771 1.11 106.03 1.33 6.70 90.62
0.762 1.11 102.80 1.30 6.70 89.94
0.781 1.13 103.94 1.47 6.58 88.54
0.770 1.08 124.27 1.56 6.21 90.91
0.753 1.12 110.99 1.42 6.55 91.34
TD Global Metals Price Indices TD Global Metals Price Index ($bn) TD Global Precious Metals Price Index ($bn) TD Global Base Metals Price Index ($bn)
Precious Metals Gold Spot (US$/oz.) Silver Spot (US$/oz.) Platinum Spot (US$/oz.) Palladium Spot (US$/oz.)
Base Metals & Minerals Aluminum (US$/tonne) Copper (US$/tonne) Zinc (US$/tonne) Nickel (US$/tonne) Lead (US$/tonne) Molybdenum (US$/lb.) Cobalt (US$/lb) Tin (US$/lb) UxC Uranium U308 Swap (US$/lb)
Bulks Thermal Coal Baltic Dry Index
Energy WTI Crude Oil (US$/bbl.) Brent Crude Oil (US$/bbl.) Heating Oil (US$/gal.) Gasoline, RBOB (US$/gal.) NYMEX Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) AECO Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) Denatured Ethanol (US$/gal.)
Softs USDA No. 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat (US$/bush USDA No. 2 Yellow Corn (US$/bush) USDA No. 1 Yellow Soybeans (US$/bush) Coffee (US$/lb) Cotton (US$/lb) Lean Hogs (US$/lb) Cattle, Feeder (US$/lb) Cattle, Live (US$/lb)
Equities S&P 500 S&P TSX Composite S&P TSX Global Gold S&P TSX Global Mining S&P TSX Energy Index XAU Philly Gold & Silver Index FTSE 100 Nikkei 225
Currencies CAD/USD Euro/USD Japanese Yen British Pound Yuan US Trade Weighted Dollar (1973=100) Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
8
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
ETF MONITOR TABLE TD Securities: Commodities Trade Strategy - Precious Metals ETF Monitor Latest Holdings Last Updated Date Total GOLD ETFs SPDR Gold Trust ETF Securities iShares ZKB Source Sprott Physical Central Fund of CA Xetra Gold Julius Baer NewGold Central Gold Trust Royal Canadian Mint Goldist Total SILVER ETFs iShares Central Fund of CA ETF Securities ZKB Sprott Physical Julius Baer Claymore Silver Bullion Trust Royal Canadian Mint Total PLATINUM ETFs ETF Securities NewPlat ZKB Swiss & Global Source Sprott Physical Deutsche Bank Total PALLADIUM ETFs ETF Securities Standard Bank NewPall ZKB Source Swiss & Global Sprott Physical Deutsche Bank
July 15, 2016 July 18, 2016 July 15, 2016 June 10, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 14, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 14, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 18, 2016 June 10, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 14, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 18, 2016 July 15, 2016 June 10, 2016 July 14, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 18, 2016 June 24, 2016 July 15, 2016 June 10, 2016 July 15, 2016 July 14, 2016 July 11, 2016 July 15, 2016
Ounces 65,113,606 30,956,432 9,311,782 6,955,383 4,566,387 2,811,470 1,766,804 1,672,644 1,575,065 1,509,640 1,208,700 701,335 309,493 51,923 650,107,563 348,580,600 76,964,103 75,898,814 71,894,788 53,899,010 13,770,990 3,373,064 2,978,230 2,747,964 2,156,038 855,053 794,663 270,214 80,845 76,700 42,077 36,486 2,176,377 729,345 581,649 271,327 215,382 142,857 120,813 96,032 18,972
Value ($US Millions) 86,580 41,162 12,382 9,248 6,072 3,738 2,349 2,224 2,094 2,007 1,607 933 412 69 12,986 6,993 1,544 1,523 1,442 1,081 276 68 60 55 2,368 939 873 297 89 84 46 40 1,405 471 376 175 139 92 78 62 12
5-Day Change 30-Day Change Value Value ($US Millions) Ounces ($US Millions) Ounces (374,336) (2,182) 3,673,787 7,329 (591,928) (1,598) 1,996,412 3,807 94,225 (112) 601,440 1,146 72,300 (81) 512,122 937 (127) (118) 53,374 250 20,034 (45) 360,691 577 0 (45) 6,084 78 0 (43) 0 67 0 (41) 0 63 1,600 (37) 51,500 126 30,442 10 87,413 161 (841) (19) (841) 27 (40) (8) (104) 12 0 (1) 0 2 7,245,783 5 12,585,915 1,879 7,127,400 68 11,233,300 1,090 0 (17) 0 197 (362,537) (24) 363,366 201 326,394 (9) 797,435 198 0 (12) 0 138 155,000 0 193,000 39 0 (1) 0 9 0 (1) 0 8 (474) (1) (1,186) 7 (49,985) (62) (106,412) 138 (49,847) (58) (25,382) 71 (35) (3) (88,129) 3 (96) (1) 4,504 35 0 (0) 400 9 (3) (0) 2,197 11 0 (0) 0 5 (3) (0) (3) 4 (4,943) 44 12,587 217 (4,779) 13 1,459 71 (38) 12 830 57 (21) 6 3,881 28 (96) 5 (96) 21 (6) 3 2,015 15 0 3 4,500 14 0 2 0 9 (2) 0 (2) 2
Note: Totals include more than the listed ETFs, hence do not always add up, and the data updates at different times.
Yearly Change Value ($US Millions) Ounces 13,647,818 30,148 8,159,102 16,165 1,841,563 4,191 1,561,860 3,334 129,195 1,206 1,265,656 2,043 525,736 988 (22,000) 366 0 367 (33,700) 315 339,052 654 (3,317) 160 (19,226) 51 0 12 25,603,320 3,843 19,746,100 2,157 0 412 3,237,716 454 (1,679,922) 360 4,841,570 360 (364,000) 68 0 18 (165,600) 14 (12,543) 15 (386,088) (118) (22,471) 81 (335,205) (232) 675 33 (11,680) (2) 19,147 28 (16,860) (11) (19,693) (15) (245,782) (63) (217,442) (103) (183,237) (88) 271,327 175 (6,567) 5 9,722 12 (41,900) (21) (38,530) (20) (39,155) (23)
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities, respective ETF issuer
Bart Melek I Head of Commodity Strategy I 1 416 983 9288 I
[email protected] Mike Dragosits I Senior Commodity Strategist I 1 416 983 8075 I
[email protected]
9
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
ETF CHARTS Gold ETF Holdings
Silver ETF Holdings 800
1,900
90
50
Total ETF Holdin gs (lh s) Sp ot Go ld P rice (rhs)
85
Total ETF Holdin gs (lh s)
1,800
Sp ot Silver Pr ice (rh s)
45
75
1,600
70
1,500
65
1,400
60
1,300
55
1,200
50
1,100
40 700 35 650
30
$US/Oz
1,700
Million Ounces
80
$US/Oz
Million Ounces
750
25 600 20 550 15
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
10
500
1,000
45
2011
2016
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities, Respective ETF issuer
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities, Respective ETF issuer
Palladium ETF Holdings
Platinum ETF Holdings 3,000
3,100
2,000
1,000
2,900
1,500
2,700 800 2,500 2,300
700
$US/Oz
1,400
Thousand Ounces
1,600 2,000
$US/Oz
Thousand Ounces
900
1,800
2,500
2,100
1,200
600 1,900
1,000
1,000
500 1,700
Total ETF Holdin gs (lh s)
Total ETF Holdin gs (lh s) Sp ot Pa lladium Price (rh s)
Sp ot Pla tin um P rice (r hs)
500
800 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities, Respective ETF issuer
1,500
400 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities, Respective ETF issuer
10
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
CHART PACKAGE — FORWARD CURVES COMEX Silver
COMEX Gold
22.0 21.0
1,400
20.0
1,350
19.0
$US/Troy Oz
$US/Troy Oz
1,450
1,300 1,250
18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0
1,200
14.0
1,150
13.0 1
1,100 1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
Week ago
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Months
Today
Months Today
2
17
Month ago
Week ago
Month ago
Year ago
Year ago
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
LME Aluminum 0.84
0.80
2.85 2.80
0.83
0.78
0.82
2.75 2.65 2.60 2.55
0.81
0.76
2.70
0.80 0.74
0.79
0.72
0.78 0.77
2.50
0.70
0.76
2.45 2.40
0.68
2.35
0.66
2.30 1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
$US/lb
2.28 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.20 2.18 2.16 2.14 2.12 2.10 2.08 2.06 2.04 2.02
$US/lb
$US/lb
LME Copper
0.75 0.74 0.73 1
3
5
7
23 Today
9
11 13 15 Months Week ago
17
19
21
Month ago
23 Year ago (rhs)
Months Today
Week ago
Month ago
Year ago (rhs)
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
LME Nickel
LME Zinc 5.35
4.75
5.30
4.65
5.25
4.55
5.20
$US/lb
4.45
5.15
4.35
5.10
4.25
5.05
4.15 4.05
5.00
3.95
4.95
3.85
4.90
3.75
4.85 1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
1.10 1.05 1.00 $US/lb
4.85
0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 1
3
5
7
Months Week ago
Month ago
11
13
15
17
Months Today
Today
9
Week ago
Month ago
Year ago
Year ago (rhs)
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
11
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
CHART PACKAGE — FORWARD CURVES (CONTINUED) ICE Brent Crude Oil
50
45
40 1
5
80
63
70 60
59 $US/bbl
$US/bbl
55
65 61
$US/bbl
70 69 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56
57
50
55
40
53
30
51
20
49
10
47
0
45 1
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57
4
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46
Months Today
Week ago
$US/bbl
NYMEX WTI Crude Oil 60
Months
Month ago
Year ago (rhs)
Today
Week ago
Month ago
Year ago (rhs)
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
NYMEX 2:1:1 Crack Spread
NYMEX Natural Gas
26
4.00
24
3.80
22
3.60 3.40 $US/MMBtu
$US/bbl
20 18 16 14
3.20 3.00 2.80 2.60
12
2.40
10
2.20 2.00
8 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1
12
5
9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 Months
Months Today
Week ago
Month ago
Year ago Today
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
Week ago
Month ago
Year ago
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
NYMEX Coal
NYMEX Uranium 40
43
38 36
42 $US/Ton
$US/Ton
34 41
40
32 30 28 26 24
39
22 38
20 1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
Months Today
Week ago
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
Month ago
Year ago
Today
Week ago
6
7 8 Months Month ago
9
10
11
12
Year ago
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
12
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
CHART PACKAGE — VOLATILITY CURVES COMEX Silver 40
ATM Implied Vol (%)
ATM Implied Vol (%)
COMEX Gold 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
35
30
25
20 0.25 0.5 0.75
1
Today
2
3 6 Months
Week ago
12
18
24
36
0.25 0.5 0.75
60
2
3
6
12
18
24
36
60
Months Month ago
Today
Year ago
NYMEX Platinum
Week ago
Month ago
Year ago
NYMEX Palladium
30 35
28 26
ATM Implied Vol (%)
ATM Implied Vol (%)
1
24 22 20 18
30
25
20
16 14 0.25 0.5 0.75
1
2
3
6
12
18
24
36
60
15 0.25 0.5 0.75
1
2
Months Today
Week ago
3
6
12
18
24
36
60
Months Month ago
Year ago
Today
Week ago
Month ago
Year ago
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
13
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
CHART PACKAGE — INDUSTRIAL METAL INVENTORIES Copper Warehouse Inventories
Aluminum Warehouse Inventories 60
Inventory at LME + SHFE (lhs)
2.00
35
1.80
30
1.60
25
5.30 Inventory at LME, SHFE, COMEX (lhs)
Cop per Price (rhs)
Alumin um Price (rhs)
4.80
1.40 1.20
30
3.30
20
2.80 15
2.30
1.00
20
1.80
10
0.80
1.30
10
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
0.60
5
0.40
0 1980
0.80
2015
0.30 1985
Inventory at LME + SHFE (lhs)
2.00
100
1.80
90
1.60
80
1.40
70
Lea d Price (rhs)
1.20 1.00
15
2015
2010
50
0 1980
0.00 2005
20.00
60 15.00
10.00
5.00
10
0.20 2000
25.00
Nickel Price (rhs)
20
0.40
5
30.00
30
0.60
1995
2010
40
0.80 10
Days Supply
20
1990
2005
Inventory at LME (lhs)
$US/lb
Days Supply
25
1985
2000
Nickel Warehouse Inventories
Lead Warehouse Inventories
0 1980
1995
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
30
1990
$US/lb
0 1980
3.80
$US/lb
40
Days Supply
4.30
$US/lb
Days Supply
50
2015
0.00 1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
Zinc Warehouse Inventories 90
2.20
Inventory at LME + SHFE (lhs)
80
2.00
70
1.80 1.60
60
1.40 50 1.20
$US/lb
Days Supply
Zinc Price (rhs)
40 1.00 30
0.80
20
0.60
10
0.40
0 1980
0.20 1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities
14
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
CHART PACKAGE — PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES U.S. Crude Oil Inventory
570
Gasoline Inventory
270 260 250
470
MMbbl
MMbbl
520
420
240 230 220 210
370
Prior 5yr Avg
2015
Crude Oil Inventory at Cushing, OK 170
55
160
Dec-23
Nov-25
Oct-28
Sep-2
Sep-30
Aug-5
Jul-8
Jun-10
May-13
Apr-15
140
Prior 5yr Range
Prior 5yr Avg
Dec-23
Oct-28
2015
Nov-25
Jul-8
Jun-10
May-13
Apr-15
Mar-18
Feb-19
Jan-22
2016
Source: DOE, TD Securities
Sep-30
Dec-23
Nov-25
Oct-28
Sep-30
Sep-2
2015
100
Oct-30
Prior 5yr Avg
Aug-5
May-13
Mar-18
Feb-19
Prior 5yr Range
Jul-8
110 Jun-10
15 Apr-15
120
Sep-2
130
25 Jan-22
Mar-18
150
Dec-25
35
Dec-25
2016
Heating Oil (ULSD) Inventory
Nov-27
45
Nov-27
2015
Aug-5
MMbbl
65
Oct-30
Prior 5yr Avg
Source: DOE, TD Securities
180
MMbbl
Feb-19
Prior 5yr Range
2016
Source: DOE, TD Securities
75
Jan-22
Dec-25
Oct-30
Nov-27
190
Dec-23
Nov-25
Oct-28
Sep-30
Sep-2
Jul-8
Jun-10
May-13
Apr-15
Mar-18
Feb-19
Jan-22
Dec-25
Nov-27
Oct-30
Prior 5yr Range
Aug-5
200 320
2016
Source: DOE, TD Securities
US Natural Gas Storage Level
Refinery Utilization 4,500 4,000 95.0%
Storage (Bcf)
3,500
5yr Avg
1,000
2015
500
2016 23/Dec
25/Nov
28/Oct
30/Sep
2/Sep
5/Aug
8/Jul
10/Jun
13/May
15/Apr
Dec-23
Nov-25
Oct-28
2016
5yr Range
1,500
18/Mar
2015
Sep-30
Jul-8
Jun-10
May-13
Apr-15
Mar-18
5yr Avg
2,000
19/Feb
5yr Range Source: DOE, TD Securities
Feb-19
Jan-22
Dec-25
Nov-27
Oct-30
75.0%
Sep-2
80.0%
2,500
22/Jan
85.0%
3,041 Bcf
3,000
25/Dec
90.0%
Aug-5
Operating Capacity Utilization (%)
100.0%
Source: EIA, TD Securities
15
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
CHART PACKAGE — CFTC COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS Net Contracts
COMEX Gold
$UD/oz
400,000
Net Contracts
1,700
100,000
350,000
1,600
90,000
300,000
1,500
250,000
1,400
200,000
1,300
50,000
150,000
1,200
40,000
100,000
1,100
50,000
1,000
COMEX Silver
$UD/oz 35 30
80,000 70,000
25
60,000
20
30,000 20,000
Gold Net Spec Position (lhs)
-
Gold Price (rhs)
NYMEX Platinum
$UD/oz
60,000
1,800 1,700
50,000
1,600 1,500
40,000
1,400
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jul-15
Apr-15
Oct-14
Silver Net Spec Position (lhs)
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Net Contracts
Jan-15
Jul-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
10
Jan-13
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Jul-15
Oct-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Jul-14
Oct-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
900
Apr-13
-
15
10,000
Silver Price (rhs)
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Net Contracts
NYMEX Palladium
$UD/oz
35,000
1,000
30,000
900
25,000
800
20,000
1,300
30,000 20,000
700
1,200
15,000
1,100
10,000
600
1,000
Platinum Price (rhs)
COMEX Copper
$UD/lb
20,000
430
10,000
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Palladium Net Spec Position (lhs)
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Net Contracts
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
400
Jan-13
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Platinum Net Spec Position (lhs)
-
Oct-13
800
-
500
5,000
Jul-13
900
Apr-13
10,000
Palladium Price (rhs)
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Net Contracts
NYMEX & ICE Natural Gas
$UD/MMbtu
600,000
6.50
500,000
6.00
380
5.50
400,000
Copper Price (rhs)
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Natural Gas Net Spec Position (lhs)
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
1.50
Jul-15
(200,000)
Apr-15
2.00
Jan-15
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Oct-15
Jan-16
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Copper Net Spec Position (lhs)
2.50
(100,000)
Oct-14
180
(50,000)
3.00
-
Jul-14
(40,000)
3.50
Apr-14
230
100,000
Oct-13
(30,000)
4.00
Jan-14
280
4.50
200,000
Jul-13
(20,000)
5.00
300,000
Apr-13
330
(10,000)
Jan-13
-
Natural Gas Price (rhs)
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
16
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
CHART PACKAGE — CFTC COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS $UD/bbl
250,000
120
110
200,000
110
100
150,000
100
90
100,000
90
80
50,000
80
-
70
WTI Net Spec Position (lhs)
WTI Price (rhs)
Brent Net Spec Position (lhs)
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Net Contracts
NYMEX Gasoline
$UD/gal
120,000
350
100,000
300
80,000
250
Jul-16
20
Oct-16
(250,000)
Apr-16
30
20
Jan-16
(200,000)
Jul-15
40
30
Oct-15
(150,000)
Apr-15
50
40
Jan-15
Jul-16
(100,000)
Oct-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Jul-15
Oct-15
Apr-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
-
60
50
Jul-14
100,000
(50,000)
Oct-14
200,000
70
60
Jan-13
300,000
Apr-14
400,000
$UD/bbl
120
Jan-14
500,000
NYMEX & ICE Brent Crude Oil
Jul-13
600,000
Net Contracts
Oct-13
NYMEX & ICE WTI Crude Oil
Apr-13
Net Contracts
Brent Price (rhs)
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Net Contracts
NYMEX Heating Oil
$UD/gal
50,000 40,000 290
30,000 20,000
240
10,000 60,000
200
190
(10,000) 40,000
150
20,000
100
(20,000) 140
(30,000) (40,000)
Gasoline Net Spec Position (lhs)
Gasoline Price (rhs)
90
Heating Oil Net Spec Position (lhs)
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
(50,000)
Apr-13
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
50
Jan-13
-
Heating Oil Price (rhs)
Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, TD Securities
COMMODITIES RESEARCH TEAM: Bart Melek Head of Global Commodity Strategy
[email protected] +1 416 983 9288
Mike Dragosits Senior Commodity Strategist
[email protected] +1 416 983 8075 17
Commodities Weekly
18 July, 2016 | TD Securities | Global Strategy
GLOBAL STRATEGY TEAM Commodities Strategy Bart Melek
Head of Global Commodity Strategy
1 416 983 9288
Mike Dragosits
Senior Commodity Strategist
1 416 983 8075
Global Strategy Richard Kelly
Head of Global Strategy
44 20 7786 8448
Global Macro Strategy David Tulk
Head of Global Macro Strategy
1 416 983 0445
Millan Mulraine
Deputy Chief US Macro Strategist
1 212 827 7186
Annette Beacher
Chief Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist
Jacqui Douglas
Chief European Macro Strategist
44 20 7786 8439
James Rossiter
Senior Global Strategist
44 20 7786 8422
Robert Both
Macro Strategist
65 6500 8047
1 416 983 0859
Global Rates Strategy
Global Strategy
Priya Misra
Head of Global Rates Strategy
1 212 827 7156
Gennadiy Goldberg
US Rates Strategist
1 212 827 7180
Cheng Chen
US Rates Strategist
1 212 827 7183
Andrew Kelvin
Canada Rates Strategist
1 416 983 7184
Prash Newnaha
Asia/Pac Rates Strategist
Renuka Fernandez
Quantitative Strategist
44 20 7786 8408
44 20 7786 8420
65 6500 8047
FX Strategy Ned Rumpeltin
European Head of FX Strategy
USA
Mark McCormick
North American Head of FX Strategy
1 212 827 7190
Canada
Mazen Issa
Senior FX Strategist
1 212 827 7182
Australia New Zealand
Emerging Markets Strategy
UK
Cristian Maggio
Head of Emerging Markets Strategy
44 20 7786 8436
Europe
Paul Fage
Senior Emerging Markets Strategist
44 20 7786 8424
Emerging Markets
Sacha Tihanyi
Senior Emerging Markets Strategist
1 212 827 7043
FX & Commodities
Global Disclaimer https://goo.gl/Fa25VD TD Securities is a trademark of TD Bank and represents TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC and TD Securities Limited and certain investment and corporate banking activities of TD Bank and its subsidiaries. © Copyright 2015 The Toronto-Dominion Bank. All rights reserved.
18