Deutsche Post DHL
Commerzbank - German Investment Seminar
Larry Rosen, CFO New York, 9-11 January, 2012
Highlights
Operational performance on track
Clear strategic ambitions and targets
Leverage our growth potential
• EBIT growth of 40% in 9M 2011
• Strategy 2015:
• Organic growth driven by a focused business portfolio
• 2011 guidance increased with Q3 figures • Major restructuring is completed • Taking full benefit of globalization and outsourcing trends
– Provider of choice – Employer of choice – Investment of choice • MAIL: stabilization of EBIT at ~EUR 1bn, key driver parcel growth
• Leading market position in key growth regions • Solid liquidity and balance sheet position
• DHL: 13–15% EBIT CAGR in 2010–15, key driver fast growing regions
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page
2
Agenda
Performance on track, clear strategic ambition and targets
Mail: strategic levers for EBIT stabilization in place
DHL: strong positioning in structural growth markets
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page
3
Deutsche Post DHL at a Glance
2010 key figures
Group: Sales: EUR 51,481mn; EBIT1): EUR 2,205mn; Employees2): 421,274
Domestic German Mail and Parcel
International and Domestic Express
Global Air, Ocean and Road Freight
Global Supply Chain Solutions
Sales: EUR 13,821mn
Sales: EUR 11,111mn
Sales: EUR 14,341mn
Sales: EUR 13,301mn
EBIT1): EUR 1,152mn
EBIT1):
EBIT1):
EBIT1):
Empl.2):
Empl.2):
146,365
The postal service for Germany
EUR 785mn 88,384
Empl.2):
EUR 390mn 41,729
EUR 274mn
Empl.2):
131,032
The logistics company for the world
Corporate Center / Other: Sales: EUR 1,302mn; EBIT1): EUR -395mn; Employees2): 13,764
1) Underlying EBIT; 2) Average FTEs FY 2010
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page
4
Clear Strategic Ambition
Provider of Choice
Investment of Choice Building a track record of solid and improving performance • 2010 results above increased guidance • Guidance for FY 2011 increased after Q3 figures
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Improvement in customer satisfaction • Stable or increased overall satisfaction in 3/4 of recent surveys Divisional business development programs set up
Employer of Choice Excellent trend in engagement (Employee Opinion Survey 2010) • 79% participation rate (+3% yoy) • Significant improvement in satisfaction for all KPIs (range of +2% to +8%) yoy
Deutsche Post DHL | Page
5
Group P&L 9M 2011 Ongoing growth momentum in Q3 drives strong 9M figures
EUR mn
9M 2010
9M 2011
Chg.
Revenue
37,610
38,806
3.2%
1,310
1,837
40.2%
896 716
861 1,271
-3.9% 77.5%
964
-411
NA
EBIT1) t/o Mail t/o DHL
Financial result
• Reported revenue growth affected by adverse fx-effects and divestments. Organic growth of +6.0% • EBIT continues to improve strongly driven by continuous growth in our DHL divisions while Mail EBIT is stabilizing • 9M 2011 Financial result was impacted by Postbank effects of EUR -107mn compared to EUR +1,334mn last year • Tax rate in line with 25% guidance
-162
-356
>100%
Consolidated net profit2)
2,054
988
-51.9%
EPS (in EUR)
1.70
0.82
-51.8%
Taxes
• Consolidated net profit up by 52% excluding Postbank effects
1) 2010 EBIT included non-recurring items of EUR -302mn, t/o Mail EUR -4mn and DHL EUR -298mn; 2) Attributable to Deutsche Post AG shareholders
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page
6
Full-year 2011 Guidance EBIT guidance: Group EBIT above EUR 2.4bn 2011 Group
Above EUR 2.4bn prev. EUR 2.2–2.4 bn
~ EUR 1.1bn
Mail
prev. EUR 1.0–1.1 bn
• Net profit excl. Postbank transaction effects to improve in line with operational performance • Capex not more than EUR 1.6bn • Tax rate of 25%
DHL divisions
Above EUR 1.7bn prev. EUR 1.6–1.7 bn
Corp. Center/ Other
• Restructuring will have a considerably lower influence on operating cash flow than last year (in 2011 c. EUR 200mn cash outflow)
~ EUR -0.4bn unchanged
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page
7
Overview DPDHL Finance Strategy Target balance sheet structure is the leading element of our finance strategy Fundamental finance objectives
• Reliability
Balance sheet structure
Target / maintain BBB+ rating
Dividend policy
• 40–60% of net profit (cash flow / continuity considered) • 2010 dividend up 8.3% to EUR 0.651) (pay-out of 59%)
Priority for use of excess liquidity
1. Invest in business 2. Fund pensions 3. Increase rating to A4. Special dividend, share buyback
Financial debt portfolio
• Syndicated bank facilities • Bonds
• Predictability • Strategic flexibility • Low cost of capital • Clear steering metric
1) Proposal to AGM
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page
8
Agenda
Performance on track, clear strategic ambition and targets
Mail: strategic levers for EBIT stabilization in place
DHL: strong positioning in structural growth markets
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page
9
MAIL: Key Figures
€ mn Revenue EBIT1)
9M 2010
Mail communication volumes
9M 2011
Chg.
10,145 10,223
0.8%
896
861
mn units 8,380
-1.6% 8,112
• Solid growth in Parcel continues, supported by gradual capacity enhancements • Stable volume development in Mail Communication so far in 2011 • Union agreement on further labor flexibility
7,955
7,826
+0.8% 5,750
-3.9%
Highlights
8,185
CAGR: -1.7%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
9M 2011
Parcel volumes mn units 749
+4.2% 753
773
761
793
+9.4% 605
• Legislator sets new price-cap at CPI – 0.6% CAGR: +1.4%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
9M 2011
1) Reported EBIT: including non-recurring items of € -4mn in 9M 2010
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 10
Mail Target: EBIT Stabilization at EUR 1bn EBIT stabilization elements being realized Long-term union agreement
New price-cap formula
• Comprehensive package for improved productivity and employee satisfaction
Parcel concept 2012
• More headroom for future price increases
Wage negotiations • Investment in service quality and capacity increase to enable future parcel growth
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
• Negotiations started • Agreement expected in Q1 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 11
Mail: Long-term Union Agreement Comprehensive package, agreed until 2015
New flexible model for age-based working solutions • Option to pay proportion of current salary into worktime account • Partial-retirement program supplemented by working-time accounts and a demographic fund Extension of no compulsory redundancy until 2015 Continued outsourcing • 990 parcel-delivery districts handled by sub-contractors • Outsourcing of transportation extended by 1,000 drivers Agreed salary/working condition changes • 4% lower entry wage for new Mail employees • New vacation policies based on company service, not age • Renewal of non-chargeable overtime, work days and short breaks agreements
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 12
Mail: New Price Cap Set at CPI-0.6% New price cap regime offering more headroom
• Postal price cap decision of Federal Network Agency1) – New formula: x-factor reduced from 1.8 to 0.6% – Reference period for relevant CPI2) brought forward by six months – Regulation valid until 31 Dec. 2013
• Conclusions for Deutsche Post – No price increase for 2012 – Buffer of +1.2% carried over to 2013 (1.8% inflation rate minus 0.6% x-factor)
Directly impacted Mail revenues of EUR 3.5bn
1) Federal Network Agency = Bundesnetzagentur; 2) CPI = German Consumer Price Index
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 13
Mail: Growth in German Parcel Market 5% market growth until 20201) driven by changing consumer behavior towards e-commerce Online share of total retail spend (by segment, in %) Established segments
New segments
92 35 20 11 8 Media (books/ CD/DVD)
Fashion and shoes
Consumer electronics
Total
Driver: Convenience/Cost
4
4
60,000
> 30,000
> 10,000
> 20,000
Market position
No. 1
No. 1
No. 1
No. 1
> 500,000
> 86,000
> 300
Customers
1) 3rd party revenue Asia/Pacific; sum of DHL divisions or respective division
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 19
DHL: Economic Outlook and Implications Well prepared for volatile environment Global GDP % growth (real)
Levers for cost flexibility
IHS Global Insight EIU IMF
+4 • Increased proportion of cost structure made variable (e.g. temporary labor in international operations)
+2 0 -2
• Optimized mix of owned aircraft, short-term leases and long-term leases Forecast
-4 ‘07 ’08 ‘09 ’10 ’11F ’12F ’13F ’14F ’15F
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
• Discretionary spend (e.g. advertising) • Long-term contracts in Supply Chain, often with agreed minimum volumes
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 20
DHL Express: Key Figures
Time Definite International (TDI) – key trends
EUR mn
9M 2010
9M 2011
Chg.
Revenue
8,207
8,644
5.3%
EBIT1)
273
679 >100%
Revenues per day2) in EUR mn
Shipments per day ‘000s
+12.3%
+9.8%
26.8
30.1
481
528
9M 10
9M 11
9M 10
9M 11
Highlights • Shipment growth even accelerating in Q3 • Volume growth again clearly ahead of competition • Further yoy margin improvement as operating leverage and overall cost discipline offset ongoing investments into network, advertising and training • “Speed of Yellow” global advertising campaign
Margin increased, second-best in the industry Underlying EBIT margin
+40 bp 8.2% 7.8% 8.3% 7.5% 5.9% 6.9% 7.1%
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11
1) Reported EBIT: including non-recurring items of EUR -267mn in 9M 2010; 2) Currency translation impacts are eliminated. Hence, 2010 and 2011 data are aggregated with the same currency rate
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 21
DHL Express: Focus on our Core Competence TDI
2008
2010
DHL Express‘ focus on TDI has moved the needle • Major domestic withdrawals contributing to that proportion
Revenue 61%
75%
• Domestic activity shifted from mature EU markets to growth markets in Asia / Pacific and Latin America Domestic Strategy:
19%
Shipments
34%
• Maintain successful, profitable businesses, e.g. India Blue Dart, Mexico • Continuous monitoring of lower performing businesses
Domestic = TDD + DDD
International = TDI + DDI
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 22
DHL Express: Asia Market Position Dynamic growth continues: Double digit volume growth on all major Asia-related trade lanes DHL TDI global shipment flow, by origin/destination
DHL TDI regional trade lanes, Q3 2011, yoy volume growth
Inbound Asia
Others
IntraAsia
~50% of global DHL TDI shipments touch Asia
Europe ↔ Asia Intra-Asia > 10% > 10%
US ↔ Asia > 10%
Outbound Asia
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 23
DHL Express: Global Market Positions in TDI External Research Underlining TDI Leadership across all regions outside the Americas Americas [3,914mEUR] DHL 13%
Europe [5,288m EUR] Others 12%
Others 4% FedEx 11%
FedEx 51%
UPS 32%
TNT 16%
EEMEA [360m EUR]
UPS 23%
Asia Pacific [4,316m EUR]
Others 18%
Others 27% DHL 47%
TNT 17%
UPS 12%
DHL 38%
FedEx 6%
DHL Express‘ Global Market Share TDI of 30%
DHL 36%
TNT 6% UPS 10%
FedEx 21%
Source: Market Intelligence 2011 (FY 2010 data, MRSC); Scope: BE, CH, DE, ES, FR, IT, NL, PL, SE, UK, IE; AE, RU, TR, ZA; AU, CN, HK, IN, JP, KR, SG, TW; US, CA, MX, BR
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 24
DHL Global Forwarding, Freight: Key Figures
Key volume trends
9M 2011
Chg.
Air freight ‘000s Tons Export
Revenue 10,443 11,108
6.4%
+1.2%
EUR mn
EBIT1)
9M 2010
252
303 20.2%
Ocean freight ‘000s TEU2)
-0.2%
1,802
1,823
2,047
2,042
9M 10
9M 11
9M 10
9M 11
Highlights • Positive revenue and profit development despite unfavorable currency effects and volatile market environment in Q3 • As expected slightly weaker volumes due to increased general market softening and strong volumes in Q3 2010 • Trend towards higher margin levels driven by favorable buying conditions, profitable growth approach and efficient operations • Focus on sector strategy and value-added services
Gross profit increased Air freight GP/Tons Export
Ocean freight GP/TEU2)
+6.9%
+16.0%
414
443
205
238
9M 10
9M 11
9M 10
9M 11
1) Reported EBIT: including non-recurring items of € -6mn in 9M 2010
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 25
DHL Forwarding, Freight Reflects Global Flows of International Trade A global business with strong contributions from emerging markets Airfreight, weight by origin
Seafreight, FCL volume by origin
North Asia-Pac
Europe Europe
North Asia-Pac
North America
South Asia -Pac & Africa North America MENAT
LATAM
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
South Asia -Pac & Africa
Other LATAM MENAT
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 26
DHL Global Forwarding, Freight : Network Expansion in China from 2006–2011
Presence in 2006 …
… and today in 2011
Shenyang
Urumqi Beijing
Dalian
Tianjin Qingdao
China North (17)
Xian
China North (32)
Suzhou Wuxi Shanghai Wuhan
Nanjing Hangzhou
Chengdu
Ningbo Xiamen
Kunming Guangzhou Dongguan Shenzhen Zhongshan
Branch
22
Office
0
Hongkong
China South (5)
Note: ( ) = no. of Branches = Branch Location = Sales Office Location
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Branch
39
Office
26
China South (7)
Note: ( ) = no. of Branches = Branch Location = Sales Office Location
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 27
DHL Global Forwarding, Freight: Service Extension Towards a Comprehensive Portfolio Connecting China and Beyond • DGF is the leading provider in China Domestic airfreight and road freight • Innovative solutions e.g. cross border road freight, multimodal, rail, connect China to fast growing neighbors, e.g. ASEAN, CIS What DGF offered in 2006 … International Airfreight
International Ocean freight
Industrial Project
Customer Program Management
Customs Brokerage
Our current service offering in China 2011 … International Airfreight
Domestic Airfreight
Logistics Management Services
International Ocean freight
Domestic Road freight
Value added service
Industrial Project & Chartering
MultimodalRail Segments
Customs Brokerage
MultimodalAir Segments (SeAir, Rail-Air)
Chinese Desks At Overseas
Carbon Report & Offsetting Offering
Control Tower Management/ LLP
MultimodalLand Bridge & Mini Land Bridge
Trade Facilitation (IOR/EOR)
Ocean Secure with GPSenabled devices
International Supply Chain
MultimodalCross-border Segments
Shippers Insurance
Trade/Fair/ Exhibition Logistics
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 28
DHL Supply Chain: Key Figures Steady margin improvement
EUR mn Revenue EBIT
1)
9M 2010 9,559 185
Revenue by sector 9M 2011
9M 2011
Chg.
9,675 289
1.2% 56.2%
Energy
Others2)
2% 7%
Williams Lea
Retail 26%
9%
Highlights • Continuous growth momentum driven by existing contracts and new business wins • Asia Pacific again posting the highest growth, now representing ~10% of total revenue • New business of around EUR 280mn in annualized revenue signed in Q3 2011 (Q3 2010: EUR 200mn). Majority of new signings in Retail, Consumer, Life Sciences & Healthcare and Automotive
Automotive 7%
Technology
12% 20% Consumer
17%
Life Sciences & Healthcare
1) Reported EBIT: including non-recurring items of EUR -25mn in 9M 2010 and disposal gain on ETS in 9M 2011; 2) incl.Airline Business Solutions
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 29
Outsourcing: Simplify Our Customers Supply Chain End-to-End Supply Chain capability: more than pure warehousing Raw Materials
Inbound Production Transport Flows
Outbound Transport
Warehousing
Distribution
Returns
DHL Supply Chain Services
~ 2/3 of SC sales Plan – Laying the foundation for a supply chain
Source – Getting the materials at the time required
Make – Supporting product manufacturing
Store & Customize – Getting it ready to sell
Deliver – Getting it where it needs to be
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Return – Bringing it back when it’s not needed
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 30
DHL Supply Chain: Global Sector Focus By focusing on our six global sectors we are getting closer to our customers, offering sector-specific supply chain solutions Global Sector Focus Energy
Our Approach Automotive
• Sector approach implemented and enhanced since several years now; considered as key to success • Dedicated Global Sector teams established to strengthen our approach for six key industries
Retail
Consumer
Technology
Life Sciences & Healthcare
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
• Development of sector-specific, innovative solutions, ensuring sustainable competitive advantage for our customers and DHL • Focus on best practice & knowledge exchange – across regions, DHL Divisions, and with our customers
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 31
DHL Supply Chain: Asia Pacific Deep Dive DHL Supply Chain is the contract logistics market leader in Asia Pacific and keeps on growing fast Key Facts
Asia Pacific Strategy
• Market leader in Asia Pacific
• Following Supply Chain’s global strategy, the strategic focus in Asia Pacific depends on local market maturity and dynamics:
• Strongest growing region, currently generating ~10% DHL Supply Chain’s global revenue • > 26,000 employees • 700 facilities with total surface of 4 million m2 • 14 countries
– High growth countries (China, India): Enhance growth organically and through targeted, small acquisitions – Immature markets: Consolidation of customer supply chains through integrated end-to-end solutions – Mature markets: Innovative, transformational deals, offering Value Added Services and leveraging strategic products replication program • Strong focus on talent management
Regional Regional HQ HQ Singapore Singapore
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
• Drive footprint growth with build/lease-back agreements
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 32
DHL Supply Chain: Strategic products successful in Asia Pacific Our strategic products continue to deliver results and offer innovative solutions beyond conventional warehousing & distribution Co-Packing
Lead Logistics Provider
Airline Solutions
Airline solutions are optimized „Above the Wing“ operations. Services are based upon globally defined standards and the support of a dedicated team Core Services: • Assembly and delivery of catering trays and other “Above the Wing“ products such as „In-Flight-Retail & Entertainment“ • Inventory management, cleaning of equipment and waste management Benefit: • Improved service level along with significant reduction of weight, waste, unused products and hence cost through an optimized endto-end solution
E-Fulfillment
Technical Services
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Based on the success with our Airline Solution business with British Airways at London Heathrow, we furthered our “Abovethe-Wing” product offering through the new Qantas contract in Australia
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 33
SUMMARY Focus on organic profitable growth in structurally growing markets • Logistics industry driven by growth in global trade • DHL is market leader in Asia and other growth regions • Mail business benefits from strong growth in parcel and digital services • Further margin potential due to operating leverage and efficiency improvements • 2011 guidance increased in November: confident to sustain and continue our performance improvement in the short- and medium-term Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 34
Agenda
Performance on track, clear strategic ambition and targets
Mail: strategic levers for EBIT stabilization in place
DHL: strong positioning in structural growth markets
Appendix
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 35
Group P&L Q3 2011 Performance improvement accelerating in Q3
EUR mn
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Chg.
Revenue
12,799
13,125
2.5%
545
646
18.5%
t/o Mail
257
302
17.5%
t/o DHL
382
440
15.2%
-222
-92
58.6%
-74
-138
86.5%
EBIT1)
Financial result Taxes Consolidated net profit2)
226
385
70.4%
EPS (in EUR)
0.19
0.32
68.4%
• Revenue kept growing in Q3 despite ongoing adverse effects from FX and divestments. Organic growth was +5.7% • DHL again posts double-digit EBIT growth and margin improvement in all three divisions • Mail also contributed to EBIT growth – VAT regulation no longer impacts yoy comparison • Q3 2011 Financial result was impacted by Postbank effects of EUR +26mn compared to EUR -92mn last year • Consolidated net profit and EPS increase reflect underlying EBIT improvement and lower financial costs
1) 2010 EBIT included non-recurring items of EUR +2mn, t/o Mail EUR 0mn and DHL EUR +2mn; 2) Attributable to Deutsche Post AG shareholders
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 36
Free Cash Flow Q3 2011 Strong Operating Cash Flow drives Free Cash Flow improvement
EUR mn Cash from operating activities before changes in Working Capital Changes in Working Capital Net cash from operating activities after changes in Working Capital
Q3 20101)
Q3 20111)
616
635
16
191
632
826
-250
-288
Net M&A
-23
-42
Net Interest paid
-32
-16
Free Cash Flow
327
480
Net Capex
• Strong increase in Operating Cash Flow reflects EBIT growth and tightened working capital management • Free Cash Flow improved despite somewhat higher outlays for capex and M&A • FFO/Debt improved to 31.9% in line with usual seasonal pattern of liquidity build-up in H2
1) Included restructuring cash out of EUR -42mn in Q3 2011 and EUR -76mn in Q3 2010
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 37
Net Debt (-)/Liquidity (+) Net financial liquidity reduced compared to year-end 2010 due to annual payment to civil servants pension fund and dividend EUR mn +1,3821)
Net financial liquidity improved by EUR 390mn vs. last quarter-end
-542
-786 +538
+5921) +202
Dec 31, 2010
Civil Servant Pensions
Dividend
All other liquidity effects
Sep 30, 2011
June 30, 2011
1) Adjusted for mandatory exchangeable bond and cash collateral on put options as well as the effects of the net valuation of the financial derivatives related to the Postbank transaction
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 38
Mail: Divisional Results Q3 2011 EBIT stabilization materializing
EUR mn
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Chg.
• Solid revenue driven by parcel growth and good volume development in Mail Communication • EBIT performance reflects
Revenue EBIT
3,288
3,373
2.6%
257
302
17.5%
– Strong German parcel business – Good volumes in Mail communication – Ongoing cost control
Operating Cash Flow
287
407
41.8%
Capex
101
90
-10.9%
– Normalization of e-investments • Operating cash flow improves strongly, reflecting EBIT growth and working capital management • Capex remains below last year only due to phasing
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 39
Parcel Germany: Quarterly Development Dynamic growth of Parcel Germany Revenues, in EUR mn
Volumes, in mn units yoy +10%
yoy +11%
239
888 696
Q1
749 665
678
Q2 Q3 2010
Q4
Q1
710
Q2 2011
748
Q3
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
206 188
Q1
181
184
Q2 Q3 2010
Q4
Q1
194
Q2 2011
205
Q3
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 40
MAIL: Growing in Parcel & Digital Services
Digital strategy
Take our core business model into the digital world
Mail Communication
Secure communication • E-Postbrief
Dialogue Marketing
Efficient and targeted online advertising • nugg.ad • Adcloud • Werbemanager
Press Services E-Commerce
Traditional parcel business
Pioneer a marketplace for quality journalistic content • DieRedaktion.de Facilitating online shopping and parcel shipment • DHL eParcel • MeinPaket.de
Successful integration into MAIL business in 2007 •
New parcel network (faster, more efficient, more capacity, more flexible pick-up times)
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 41
MAIL: Securing Sustainable Profitability EUR 1bn EBIT secures Mail as a self-financing unit within the group Why EUR 1bn?
Beyond 2011 EBIT stabilize at ~ EUR 1bn level
Cash generation
Funding requirements
D&A ~ EUR 0.2 bn
Share of: Corp. costs, tax, dividend, etc
EBIT ~ EUR 1bn
Pensions in excess of EBIT expenses
Investments
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 42
Express: Divisional Results Q3 2011 Ongoing strong volume growth drives further EBIT improvement
EUR mn
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Chg.
Revenue
2,719
2,929
7.7%
EBIT
1991)
219
10.1%
Operating Cash Flow Capex
317
370
16.7%
48
135
>100%
• Revenues increased due to ongoing strong international volume growth. Organic growth was 12.7% • Strong intra-Asia platform also supporting growth on Asia-bound lanes out of Europe and the US • EBIT growth reflects revenue increase and strengthening margin despite ongoing investment in advertising and training • Overproportionate increase in Operating Cash Flow driven by tightened working capital management • Higher Capex dedicated to investments into aviation network and our new Shanghai hub
1) 2010 EBIT included non-recurring items of EUR +5mn
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 43
DHL Express: TDI1) Market Position Global leading position with particular strength in Asia TDI market share in Asia/Pacific2)
Pioneer/Early-mover in Asia Examples
Japan • Operating in Express since 1972
Others 27%
DHL 36%
Singapore • Operating in Express since 1972 Malaysia • Operating in Express since 1973
TNT 6% UPS 10%
India • Market entry in 1979
FedEx 21%
• Blue Dart acquisition in 2005 China • Joint venture with Sinotrans since 1986
1) TDI = Time Definite International; 2) Source: Market Intelligence 2011 (FY 2010 data, MRSC); Scope: AU, CN, HK, IN, JP, KR, SG, TW
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 44
Global Forwarding, Freight – Divisional Results Q3 2011 Continued profitable growth and high cash flow
EUR mn
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Chg.
Revenue
3,715
3,787
1.9%
EBIT
1001)
122
22.0%
Operating Cash Flow
98
133
35.7%
Capex
31
38
22.6%
• Revenues increased slightly despite adverse fx-effects, volatile market environment and lower freight rates, especially in Ocean Freight. Organic growth was 3.4% • Good improvement in Road Freight operating performance • Strong Gross Profit performance due to better buying conditions and profitable growth approach – Air freight: GP/export ton +8% yoy – Ocean freight: GP/TEU +13% yoy • Improved Gross Profit and cost discipline drive EBIT increase; EBIT margin significantly increasing from 2.7% last year to 3.2% • Substantial growth in operating cash flow primarily due to focused net working capital management • Continued investment to improve IT solutions for global applications
1) 2010 EBIT included non-recurring items of EUR -2mn
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
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Supply Chain – Divisional Results Q3 2011 Executing a steady improvement in operating performance
EUR mn
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Chg.
Revenue
3,326
3,323
-0.1%
831)
99
19.3%
147
86
-41.5%
52
58
11.5%
EBIT Operating Cash Flow Capex
Contracts won – Annualized revenue Supply Chain New gains
200
• Revenue flat on reported basis due to adverse fx-effects and disposal of ETS. Organic revenue was up by 6.2% • Strong EBIT growth driven by good underlying business activity and continuous improvement measures • Operating Cash Flow lower due to receivables increase from ongoing growth in existing and new contracts as well as timing effects • Capex increase supports further business growth
280
1) 2010 EBIT included non-recurring items of EUR -1mn
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 46
Dividend for FY 2010 increased to € 0.65
Dividend development since IPO • Dividend increase of 8.3% to € 0.65 approved by the AGM on May 25th
0,90 0,75 0,70 0,60
0,60
0,65
• Adjusted for Postbank effects and non-recurring items this reflects a payout ratio of 59% and is within our target payout ratio of 40 – 60%
0,50 0,37
0,40
0,44
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 47
P+L Impact of Postbank Transaction in 2009/10 2010 financial result excluding Postbank related effects was EUR -580mn 2009
EUR mn Net income from associates Net other finance costs/ net other financial income t/o Postbank-related t/o not Postbank related Total net finance costs/net financial income t/o Postbank-related t/o not Postbankrelated
Q1 20 598 737
Q2 26
Q3 25
Q4 -43
-34 -355 -212 97 -188
Main impacts on the financial result
2010
-14
FY 28
Q1
Q2
34
Q4
FY
31
-33
56
17 1,294 -166 -253
58
933
632 1,414
24
Q3
-46 -123
272 1,517
-139 -131 -147 -198 -615 -120 -120 -130 -214 -584 618 757
-8 -310 -255 123 -163
-66
45 1,328 -142 -222 651 1,448
-22
-92
25
• at equity result of Postbank • Postbank transaction valuation effects • interest component for mandatory exchangeable bond and cash collateral
989
235 1,569
-139 -131 -147 -189 -606 -120 -120 -130 -210 -580
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 48
Changes to the P+L Impact of Postbank Transaction in 2011 Reclassification of Postbank shares as ‘Assets held for sale’ at end of February 2011 Share price < ~ EUR 22.00 • Mark to market valuation of investment • Offset by mark to market valuation of derivatives
Share price > ~ EUR 22.00 • Value of investment capped at ~ EUR 22.00 • Mark to market valuation of derivatives
Impact 2011 Interest component
Valuation
EUR -180mn p.a.
no significant impact
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
EUR -180mn p.a.
~ EUR -90m per EUR 1 increase in Postbank share price and vice versa
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 49
Impact of Postbank Transaction on the P+L Net profit excluding Postbank effects increased to EUR 359mn in Q3 2011 • Postbank effects include EUR mn Consolidated net profit (reported)1) t/o Postbank effects Net profit excluding Postbank effects
9M 2010 2,054
9M 2011 988
Q3 2010 226
Q3 2011 385
– At equity result of Postbank until Feb 28th – Reclassification of Postbank shares as ‘Assets held for sale’, i.e. no further equity consolidation – Postbank valuation effects
1,334
-107
-92
26
720
1,095
318
359
+52.1%
– Interest component for mandatory exchangeable bond and cash collateral
+12.9%
1) Attributable to Deutsche Post AG shareholders
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
Deutsche Post DHL | Page 50
Investor Relations Contacts
Martin Martin Ziegenbalg, Ziegenbalg, Head Head of of Investor Investor Relations Relations •• +49 +49 228 228 182 182 63000 63000 •• E-mail: E-mail:
[email protected] [email protected] Robert Robert Schneider Schneider •• +1 212 +1 212 672 672 1729 1729 •• E-mail: E-mail:
[email protected] [email protected] Sebastian Sebastian Slania Slania •• +49 228 182 +49 228 182 63203 63203 •• E-mail: E-mail:
[email protected] [email protected] Florian Florian Bumberger Bumberger •• +49 228 +49 228 182 182 63208 63208 •• E-mail:
[email protected] E-mail:
[email protected] Daniel Daniel Stengel Stengel •• +49 +49 228 228 182 182 63202 63202 •• E-mail:
[email protected] E-mail:
[email protected]
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported results nor other historical information. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond Deutsche Post AG’s ability to control or estimate precisely, such as future market and economic conditions, the behavior of other market participants, the ability to successfully integrate acquired businesses and achieve anticipated synergies and the actions of government regulators. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which apply only as of the date of this presentation. Deutsche Post AG does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to subscribe for or buy any security, nor shall there be any sale, issuance or transfer of the securities referred to in this presentation in any jurisdiction in contravention of applicable law. Copies of this presentation and any documentation relating to the Offer are not being, and must not be, directly or indirectly, mailed or otherwise forwarded, distributed or sent in or into or from Australia, Canada or Japan or any other jurisdiction where to do so would be unlawful. This document represents the Company‘s judgment as of date of this presentation.
Commerzbank German Investment Seminar | New York | 9-11 January, 2012
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