Climate Scientists’ Perceptions of Climate Change Science

Authors: D. Bray H. von Storch

GKSS 2007/11

GKSS 2007/11

Climate Scientists’ Perceptions of Climate Change Science

Authors: Dennis Bray Institute for Coastal Research GKSS Forschungszentrum Max-Planck-Strasse 1 D-21502 Geesthacht Germany

Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research GKSS Forschungszentrum Max-Planck-Strasse 1 D-21502 Geesthacht Germany

GKSS – Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH Geesthacht 2007

GKSS 2007/ The Perspectives of Climate Scientists on Global Climate Change Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch 124 pages with 11 tables and 100 figures

Abstract

This report presents the findings of two surveys of climate scientists’ perceptions of the global warming issue. The first survey was conducted in 1996 and the second survey in 2003. A brief text section demonstrates some of the significant findings. The surveys investigate the means by which scientific conclusions are reached and the climate scientists interpretations of what these conclusions might mean. The complete responses to the surveys are presented in Appendix A: Tables and Appendix B: Figures. Each table and figure is presented in a manner to indicate statistically significant change in scientists perspectives over the period of the two surveys.

Die Perspektiven von Klimaforschern über Globale Klima-Veräderungen

Zusammenfassung

Dieser Reports stellt die Ergebnisse zweier Studien vor, in welchen Klimawissenschaftler zu ihrer Sichtweise zum Thema globale Klimaerwärmung befragt worden. Die Befragungen hierzu wurden in den Jahren 1996 und 2003 durchgeführt. Die Wissenschaftler wurden sowohl zur Methodik ihrer Ergebnissfindung als auch zur Interpretation dieser um Auskunft gebeten. Die detaillierten Ergebnisse sind in Anhang A (Tabellen) und in Anhang B (Abbildungen) dargestellt. Hierbei werden die Ergebnisse aus den jeweiligen Befragungsjahren gegenübergestellt, um statistisch signifikante Unterschiede zu verdeutlichen. Ein kurzer Textabschnitt zu Beginn dieses Report fasst die wesentlichen Ergebnisse zusammen.

CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION

1

2. SAMPLING

1

3. CONTROVERSY

3

4. DISCUSSION

4

5. CONCLUSION

7

BIBLIOGRAPHY

9

APPENDIX A

A1

APPENDIX B

B1

Introduction The following is a presentation of descriptive statistics resulting from two surveys of climate scientists. The short text body highlights some of the findings and is followed by Appendix A: Tables and Appendix B: Figures, providing descriptive statistics for all variables contained in the surveys. The first survey of climate scientists’ perspectives regarding global warming was conducted in 1996 and hard copies were distributed by post to scientists in 5 countries in their respective languages: Germany, USA, Canada, Denmark and Italy. (more discussion of the 1996 results are available in Bray and Bray and von Storch, and Bray et al, 1997, 1999). To assist in the design of pertinent questions, a series of in-depth interviews was conducted with scientists in major institutions in the USA, Canada and Germany. The resulting questionnaire, consisting of 74 questions, was pre-tested in a German institute and after revisions, distributed in North America and Europe. The second survey was conducted in late 2003 by electronic means and extended to include questions pertaining to impacts, adaptation and media involvement. Responses were forthcoming from some 30 countries. Distribution was only in the English language. Most questions were designed on a seven point rating scale. A set of statements was presented to which the respondent was asked to indicate his or her level of agreement or disagreement, for example, 1 = strongly agree, 7 = strongly disagree. The value of 4 can be considered as an expression of ambivalence or impartiality or, depending on the nature of the question posed, for example, in a question posed as a subjective rating such as "How much do you think climate scientists are aware of the information that policy makers incorporate into their decision making process?", a value of 4 is no longer a measure of ambivalence, but rather a metric. Following the discussion of the sampling and the resultant controversy in 2003, some of the highlights of the findings are detailed before presenting the results in Appendix A and B.

Sampling Sample 1996 The anonymous, self-administered questionnaire was distributed by post with no follow up letters of reminder. Sampling was less than ideal. First, sample size was limited by resources. The sample for the North American component was drawn from the EarthQuest mailing list. Due to the fact that the mailing list is more extensive than the discipline of climate science, a true random sampling technique was not employed. Rather, subjects were selected according to institutional and disciplinary affiliations, all of which were related to the climate sciences. Nonetheless, the mailing list was adequate to provide the predetermined sample size of 500 North American scientists. This resulted in a final sample of 460 US scientists and 40 Canadian scientists. The sampling of German scientists, due to reasons of confidentiality, was beyond full control. A random

1

sample of German scientists was drawn from the mailing list of the Deutsche Meteorlogische Gesellschaft by its administration, resulting in the distribution of 450 survey questionnaires. A further 50 questionnaires were distributed to members of the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, and members of the University of Hamburg. Returns of the German sample extended beyond Germany and included 13 respondents reporting to be other than German. However, since they were drawn from the German mailing list they are included here in the German sample. The questionnaire was further distributed in Denmark with an approximate 30% return with the assistance of the Danish Meteorological Society and in Italy, with the assistance of Dr. P. Battinelli of the Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma, with 73 out of 240 potential respondents completing the survey. The overall response rate of the survey was approximately 40%, a favourable response rate when compared to response rates of similar surveys. Similar surveys include the following: Stewart et al (1992), a SCIENCEnet electronic survey received 118 responses from “a computer-based network ... which has over 4000 subscribers”(p.2); the National Defense University Study (1978) based its conclusions on the responses from 21 experts; the Slade Survey (1989) based conclusions on responses from 21 respondents; the Global Environmental Change Report Survey (1990) had a response rate of approximately 20% from a sample 1500; the Science and Environmental Policy project (Singer 1991) received a 32% response rate from a sample of 102, and later a 58% response rate from another sample of 24; the Greenpeace International Survey received 113 responses from a sample of 400, and; Auer et al (1996) report that “about 250 questionnaire were distributed [by method of personal contact at conferences] and 101 were sent back”. Morgan and Keith, (1995) employed the data drawn from a sample size of 16 US climate scientists. This list is by no means exhaustive of such surveys but is included for further reference should the reader be so inclined as to asses other perspectives. Sample 2003 In 2003 the survey was repeated and the list of questions extended to 106 to include questions pertaining to adaptation and science-media interaction. This was conducted by electronic means and responses were forthcoming from some 30 countries. The existence of the survey was posted in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, the Climlist server, and was sent to institutional lists in Germany and Denmark. As an effort to prevent general access to the survey, the survey was password protected. The password was contained in the informative message distributed according to the above. Consequently response rate cannot be calculated. The total number of respondents was 558. The notable decline of the European respondent number in 2003 might be attributed to the fact that in 1996 the survey was dispersed in the language of the target country but in 2003 the questionnaire was presented in English only.

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Controversy The 2003 survey was not without controversy. Comments concerning response rate, sampling bias were made. Response rate Controversy arose concerning some aspects of the 2003 survey. Once such controversy concerned response rates and on-line surveys, i.e. that response rate could not be calculated. However, Dillman (2000: p.400) argues that a survey on the WWW is a useful methodology. Watt (1999) argues that lower cost data collection via the WWW results in larger samples with more statistical powers and more useful results. Bradley (1999) similarly argues that utilizing a technique called ‘saturation sampling’, which attempts to survey all identifiable targets, overcomes any lack of reliable sampling frame. (It should be noted that the intention was never to conduct a panel study, i.e. the exact same respondents in both surveys.) Sampling Bias Critics of the survey suggested that sceptics could submit multiple copies of the survey (see: Lambert, Tim, 2005), thereby biasing the results. (However, no criticism was raised suggesting that the other polemic might also act in a similar manner, that is, a biasing of the results by multiple submissions by climate change alarmists.) It is claimed that the 2003 survey was posted on a sceptics mailing list and concern was raised that the sample for the 2003 survey might not be representative and as such the results invalid. In an effort to determine if indeed the sample was biased the Two-sample KolmogorovSmirnov test and the Wald-Wolfowitz Test (general tests that detect differences in both the locations and the shapes of distributions) have been employed. 1. Two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test This test compares the cumulative distribution functions for two groups to detect differences in shapes and locations. This test is to determine whether two independent samples (1996 and 2004) have been drawn from the same population or populations with the same distribution. The two-tailed test is sensitive to any kind of difference in the distributions from which the two samples were drawn - differences in location, in dispersion, in skewness, etc. This test is based on the maximum absolute difference between the observed cumulative distribution functions for both samples. A small significance value indicates the two groups differ in either shape or location. In some instances, of course this would be expected as the knowledge of the phenomenon improves.

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2. Wald-Wolfowitz Test results This is a nonparametric test of the null hypothesis that two samples come from the same population, against the alternative hypothesis that the two groups differ in any respect whatsoever. This test can reject the null hypothesis if the two populations differ in any way: central tendency, variability or skewness, etc. This test combines and ranks the observations from both groups. If the two samples are from the same population the two groups should be randomly scattered throughout the rankings. Summary of results of analyses of all variables: There are 67 variables common to the 1996 and 2004 surveys. The Two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test suggests there are no discernible differences between samples in 34 of these variables. The Wald-Wolfowitz Test was unable to calculate conclusion regarding group differences in all but one variable, for which results indicated no discernible difference between the two samples.

Discussion The complete results of all questions are presented in Appendix A and Appendix B. This discussion addresses only some of the highlights apparent in the data. Demographics Appendix A presents tables of the demographics of the sample demonstrating the similarity and differences between the two surveys. Table 2, Number of Years Worked in Climate Science seems to aptly demonstrate the transition of years worked of a relatively constant base of climate scientists. Climatologist and meteorologist seem to remain the main classifications of academic training (Table 3) with ‘climatology’ becoming a much more pronounced category in the latter survey. Table 4 suggests that the main activity of the respondents is listed as modelling, consistent in both surveys, as is the case for ‘type’ of research in Table 5, where ‘applied’ remains the predominant response. In summary, in addition to the Two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Wald-Wolfowitz Test results, the demographic features of the two samples tend to demonstrate much in common. Self-Assessment of the State of Climate Science by Climate Scientists The self assessment of the state of climate science by climate scientists concerns a brief analysis of what could be construed as the research components of the science. The list is not exhaustive but addresses areas of significant research effort and concern. The discussion encompass Figures 1 thru 15 in Appendix B. Within this section the notable statistically significant differences in the means include a slight increase in the understanding of the role of albedo, land surface processes, and sea ice but no statistically significant increase in the understanding of the role of greenhouse gases or turbulence.

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Table 1. Assessment of Science Components: How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with the following processes? 1 – very inadequate; 7 = very adequate

Hydrodynamics Radiation Vapour Clouds Precipitation Convection

1996 mean 4.60 4.63 3.62 3.06 3.16 3.57

2003 mean 4.45 4.71 3.83 3.22 3.29 3.48

Stat Sig t .116 .353 .013 .077 .165 .290

Table 2. Assessment of Science Components: How well do you think ocean models can deal with the following processes? 1 – very inadequate; 7 = very adequate

Hydrodynamics Heat Transport Convection Coupling models

1996 mean 4.60 4.42 3.71 3.29

2003 mean 4.71 4.49 3.82 3.62

Stat Sig t .191 .362 .177 .000

Table 3. The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of: 1 = strongly disagree; 7 = strongly agree

Turbulence Albedo Land surface proc. Sea ice Greenhouse gases

1996 mean 3.68 4.58 3.71 3.86 4.47

2003 mean 3.68 4.91 4.01 4.09 4.84

Stat Sig t .941 .000 .001 .008 .093

After having assessed the components of the science, scientists were asked to assess the utility of their efforts in terms of assessing the accuracy of the models and future climate conditions. Respondents perceived no change in the ability of models to accurately verify the climatic conditions for which they are calibrated and in neither year suggested this ability to be very high. When asked generally about the models’ skill to predict the future the responses indicate that in general scientists do not have much faith in this ability. When asked about specific time periods, the ability was perceived to deteriorate over time. This is presented in Table 4 and in Figures 16 thru 21 in Appendix B.

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Table 4. The ability of models to predict the future: How much do you agree with the following statements: 1 = strongly agree; 7 = strongly disagree

Models accurately verify conditions for which they are calibrated Models can accurately predict conditions of the future

1994 mean 3.93

2003 mean 3.94

Stat Sig t .921

4.69

4.53

.096

As Table 4 indicates, scientists do not perceive any significant change in he ability of the models in the period between 1996 and 2003. Table 5 presents the assessment of the ability of models to address specified time periods.

Table 5. To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of : 1 = a great degree; 7 = none at all

Inter-annual variability Climate variability on decadal scale Climate variability on 100 year scale Climate variability in >100 year scale

1994 mean 4.63

2003 mean 4.01

Stat Sig t .000

4.89

4.51

.000

5.24

4.78

.000

5.47

5.11

.000

While there have been some statistically significant minor improvements over the years the data suggests that the scientific community do not perceive the models to be the truth machine as often portrayed in the media. On the contrary, climate scientists seem all too aware of the limitations of climate models, demonstrating a minimal amount of faith in the output when if comes to making either long term or short term predictions. Stating Impacts Having determined the scientists’ assessment of the abilities of the science, attention is turned towards the utility of the output. This section briefly looks at the assessment of the perception of climate change impacts as presented in Figures 22 thru 27 in Appendix B. The perception of the ability to be able to determine local impacts has remained unchanged and minimal over the years (Figure 22). Even the ability to

6

explicitly state what these impacts might be remains elusive (Figure 23). A greater degree of certainty seem to persist however, that there will be detrimental impacts somewhere (Figure 24), although the risk is perceived to be greater elsewhere than at home (Figure 25). This seems somewhat at contradiction to the claims that there is a slight tendency to lean towards the argument that climate change might also have some positive effects for some societies, but not for the society in which the scientist lives. In short, both positive and negative impacts of climate change are perceived to be more likely to occur somewhere else other than where the scientist is located, collectively suggesting that climate change will have a ‘not-in-my-back-yard’ catastrophic impact rating irregardless of where my back yard is located.

The Crux of the Debate In this section of the discussion attention is turned to the expert opinion of things that raise public and political hackles. First, can we say for certain that global warming – man made or otherwise – is underway (Figure 28)? From 1996 to 2003 there was quite a significant shift saying yes. Given that it is happening how much is it of a leading problem facing humanity? According to the data (Figure 29) climate change is perceived by climate scientists are representing a significant global problem (this however is difficult to reconcile given the discussion concerning impacts). Furthermore, as Table 6, Appendix A indicates, in 2003 only 7.9% of those scientists responding to the question ‘I feel the most pressing issue facing humanity today is …’ claimed climate change/global warming as the most pressing issue. (One should note however the possible role of competing issues, i.e. terrorism.) So, if global warming is happening, and if it might be a significant global problem, who, according to science, is to blame? Figure 30 suggests there is quite some hesitance about putting all of the blame on humans. However, when considering attribution one should keep in mind the self proclaimed relative lack of understanding of green house gases and when considering the claim of climate change being a leading global issue one should keep in mind the self proclaimed lack of predictive capabilities in the models.

Conclusion The purpose of this report has been to point out some of the controversy surrounding the survey of climate scientists and to high light some of the findings that have added to the controversy (and some that have not). Figures 31 to 100 (Appendix B) allow for the exploration of some of these issues in greater detail, with figures 69 – 100 pertaining to questions asked only on the 2003 survey. As the data seems to suggest, the matter is far from being settled in the scientific arena. A repeat of the survey is planned for 2007. It is hoped that the cooperation of the broad scientific community will again be forthcoming and that subsequent analysis will shed light not just on controversial claims but also on those areas of science that are consensually in need of further study, i.e. figures 1 – 15 in Appendix B.

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Bibliography Auer, I., R. Böhm, and R. Steinacker. 1996: ‘An opinion poll among climatologists about climate change topics’. Meteor. Z., 5, 145–155. Battinelli, P., D. Bray and H. von Storch, 1999: Il punto di vista delgi scienziati del clima sul Cambiamento Climatico Globale. La Comunita Scientifica Italiana. Sotto il patrocinio del Ministero dell'Ambiente . Bradley, N. 1999 ‘Sampling for Internet Surveys. An examination of respondent selection for Internet research’, Journal of Market Research Society 41 (4) 387-395. Bray, D. and H. von Storch, 1999: ‘Climate Science. An empirical example of postnormal science’. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80: 439-456 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch. 1999 ‘Climate Science and the Transfer of Knowledge to Public and Political Realms’ Ch.9. pp. 281-322 in Hans von Storch and Götz Flöser (eds.) Anthropogenic Climate Change Springer Verlag.1999 Bray, D., H. von Storch and S. Rau. 1999. ’Der Klimawandel: Sichtweisen und Interpretation. Ergebnisse des Projektes "The Perspectives of Climate Scientists on Global Climate Change"’. Mitteilungen der Deutschen Meteorologischen Gesellschaft 3/99, 8-13 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch. 1997 ‘The Climate Change Issue Perspectives and Interpretations’ in Proceedings of the 14th International Congress of Biometeorology vol. 3:439-450. edited by A Hocevar, Z. Crepinsek and L. Kajfez-Bogataj. International Society of Biometeorology Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch. 1997 ‘Survey Explores Views of 400 Climate Scientist’ in United Nations Climate Change Bulletin Issue 14, 2nd Quarter, 1997: 6 – 7 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch 1997 ‘Encuesta entre 400 epsecialistas en clima’ Naciones Unida Cambio Climatico Boletin 14: 1997: 7-8 Bray, Dennis and Hans von Storch. 1997 ‘L' opionion de 400 climatologues à l'étude’ Nations Unies Changements Climatiques Bulletin 14: 1997: 7-8 Dillman, D. 2000. Mail and Internet Surveys: The tailored design method (2nd Ed.) New York, John Wiley and Sons. Global Environmental Change Report, 1990: GECR climate survey shows strong agreement on action, less so on warming. Global Environmental Change Rep. 2, 9, 1–3.

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Greenpeace. 1991. Climate Impacts Database: Many scientists believe runaway greenhouse possible. http://archive.greenpeace.org/climate/database/records/zgpz0638.html Lambert, T. 2005. ‘Useless on-line survey of climate scientists’. http://cgi.cse.unsw.edu.au/~lambert/cgi-bin/blog/science. Morgan, M. G., and D. W. Keith. 1995. ‘Subjective judgements by climate experts’. Environmental Science and Technology., 29, 468A–476A National Defense University (NDU), 1978. ‘Climate Change To The Year 2000: A Survey of Expert Opinion’. National Defense University, 109 pp. Singer, S. F., and J. S. Winston. 1991: IPCC Report: Survey, Science and Environmental Policy Project. IPCC. Slade, D. H. 1990. ‘A Survey of Informed Opinion Regarding the Nature and Reality of a Global “Greenhouse” Warming’. Climatic Change vol. 16 no. 1 Stewart, T. R., J. L. Mumpower, and P. R. Cirincione. 1992. ‘Scientists’ agreement and disagreement about global climate change: Evidence from surveys’. Research Report, Nelson A. Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy. von Storch, H., A. Walløe Hansen and D. Bray. 1999. ‚En meningsmåling blandt danske klimaforskere om deres anskuelser med hensyn til globale klimaforandringer og dens betydning for politik og samfund’. Vejret, 79, Maj 1999: 39-44 von Storch, H. and D. Bray, ‘Perspectives of climate scientists on global climate change’. Conference Proceedings. Climate Change Policy in Germany and the United States, Berlin, the German-American Academic Council. Publication of the GAAC, Symposia Volume 7, 1999, June 15-18, 1997. Publications of the GAAC, Volume 7, ISSN 0948-4809, 33-48 Watt, J.H. 1999. ‘Internet systems of evaluation research’. In G. Gay and T. Bennington (Eds.) Information technologies in evaluation: social, moral, epistemological and practical implications (pp 23-44) San Francisco Josey –Bass, no. 8h. Siegel, Sidney and N. John Costella Jr. 1988. NonParametric Statistics for Behavioural Sciences. McGraw-Hill.

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Appendix A

Table 1. The country in which I work is

1996 Valid

2003 Valid

Missing Total

USA Canada Germany Italy Denmark Other Total

USA Canada Germany Italy Denmark Netherlands Sweden France United Kingdom Australia Norway Finland New Zealand Austria Ethiopia South Africa Poland Switzerland Mexico Russia Argentina India Spain Japan Brazil Taiwan Bulgaria Total Missing value

Frequency 149 35 228 73 33 28 546

Valid Percent 27.3 6.4 41.8 13.4 6.0 5.1 100.0

Frequency 372 14 56 14 5 4 5 5 18 21 3 3 6 3 1 3 1 7 3 1 1 3 2 3 1 1 1 557 1 558

Valid Percent 66.8 2.5 10.1 2.5 .9 .7 .9 .9 3.2 3.8 .5 .5 1.1 .5 .2 .5 .2 1.3 .5 .2 .2 .5 .4 .5 .2 .2 .2 100.0

A1

Table 2. The approximate number of years that I have worked in climate sciences is

1996 Valid

Missing Total

2003 Valid

Missing Total

0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 >20 Total Missing value

Frequency 162 95 72 52 152 533 13 546

Valid Percent 30.4 17.8 13.5 9.8 28.5 100.0

0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 >20 Total Missing value

Frequency 78 153 100 66 159 557 2 558

Valid Percent 14.0 27.5 18.0 11.8 28.5 100.0

A2

Table 3. My academic training is mostly in (i.e. mathematics, physics, meteorology, ecology)

1996 Valid

Missing Total

2003 Valid

Missing Total

Mathematics Physics Atmospheric physics Meteorology Oceanography Ecology Geophysics Geography Chemistry Geology Engineering Other Climatology Fluid dynamics Hydrology Palaeoclimatology Atmospheric chemistry Medicine Agriculture Physiology Biometeorology Total Missing value

Frequency 17 66 70 281 32 18 1 16 10 6 4 7 6 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 545 1 546

Valid Percent 3.1 12.1 12.8 51.6 5.9 3.3 .2 2.9 1.8 1.1 .7 1.3 1.1 .2 .6 .2 .2 .4 .2 .2 .2 100.0

Mathematics Physics Atmospheric physics Meteorology Oceanography Ecology Geophysics Geography Chemistry Geology Engineering Other Climatology Hydrology Palaeoclimatology Atmospheric chemistry Agriculture 100 Total Missing value

Frequency 42 98 34 195 42 17 4 28 19 7 5 25 22 11 1 1 2 1 554 4 558

Valid Percent 7.6 17.7 6.1 35.2 7.6 3.1 .7 5.1 3.4 1.3 .9 4.5 4.0 2.0 .2 .2 .4 .2 100.0

A3

Table 4. The area in which I conduct most of my research is (i.e. physical processes, modeling, observations, experimentation, impact assessment,...)

1996 Valid

Frequency 21 1 6 91 3 2 123 8 1 8 20 1 1 3 1 51 2 2 1 1 3 2 4 1 21 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 6 15 3 3 3 1 1 2 7 2 2 1 3 2 6

Impact assessment Geoscience instrumentation Oceanography Observations Biogeo-cyles Climate science assessment Modeling Measurement Nutrient cycles Administration Fluid dynamics Monitoring Boundary layers Ecology Ecosystems Physical processes Radiation Nonlinear dynamics Computer application Ocean modeling Environmental change Physics Remote sensing Global policy Experimentation Atmospheric radiation Inter-seasonal climate Biometeorology Palaeo-climatology. Fluid mechanics Science policy Biochemistry Physical chemistry Chemistry Atmospheric processes Climate theory Air/sea interact. Diagnostic Convection Turbulence Engineer Cloud physics Stratosphere dynamics Solar influences Snow/ice Public forecast Agro-meteorology Regional climate

A4

Valid Percent 4.1 .2 1.2 17.8 .6 .4 24.1 1.6 .2 1.6 3.9 .2 .2 .6 .2 10.0 .4 .4 .2 .2 .6 .4 .8 .2 4.1 .2 .2 .6 .4 .2 .2 .2 .2 1.2 2.9 .6 .6 .6 .2 .2 .4 1.4 .4 .4 .2 .6 .4 1.2

Table 4 continued 1996 Valid

Missing Total

2003 Valid

Thermodynamics Aviation meteorology Economic geography Stochastic processes Forecasting Data systems Synoptic Climate change Meteorology Meso-climate Dendrochronology Downscaling Human - climate interaction Biophysiology Medicine Climatology Animal biometeorology Met impacts on humans Phonological modelling Topoclimatology Other Total Missing

Impact assessment Oceanography Observations Biogeo-cyles Climate science assessment Modeling Measurement Monitoring Boundary layers Ecology Physical processes Ocean modeling Remote sensing Experimentation Atmospheric radiation Palaeoclimatology Science policy Atmospheric processes Diagnostic Cloud physics Stochastic processes Forecasting

A5

1 2 2 2 3 3 3 14 5 1 5 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 10 510 36 546

.2 .4 .4 .4 .6 .6 .6 2.7 1.0 .2 1.0 .4 .4 .4 .2 .2 .2 .2 .4 .2 2.0 100.0

Frequency 27 1 149 2 2 191 1 1 1 2 60 1 5 7 1 8 1 1 1 3 1 15

Valid Percent 4.9 .2 26.8 .4 .4 34.4 .2 .2 .2 .4 10.8 .2 .9 1.3 .2 1.4 .2 .2 .2 .5 .2 2.7

Table 4 continued 2003 Valid

Missing Total

Data systems Synoptic Climate change Meteorology Human - climate interaction Climatology Other Total Missing values

4 3 3 1 1 9 53 555 3 558

A6

.7 .5 .5 .2 .2 1.6 9.5 100.0

Table 5. I consider my research to be mainly (i.e. applied, theoretical, targeted, ...)

1996 Valid

Missing Total

2003 Valid

Missing Total

Applied Theoretical Qualitative Other Experimental Theory and applied Administration Public broadcasting Total Missing value

Frequency 360 126 7 26 2 13 2 1 537 9 546

Valid Percent 67.0 23.5 1.3 4.8 .4 2.4 .4 .2 100.0

Applied Theoretical Qualitative Quantitative Other Experimental Theory and applied Administration Targeted Total Missing value

Frequency 348 102 1 1 44 2 2 1 50 551 7 558

Valid Percent 63.2 18.5 .2 .2 7.4 .4 .4 .2 9.1 100.0

A7

Table 6. I feel the most pressing issue facing humanity today is (open ended question recoded into following categories) Valid 468 518

1996 2003 1996 Valid

Missing 78 39 Frequency 234 16 14

Valid Percent 50.0 3.4 3.0

Climate change

14

3.0

Resource distribution

13

2.8

Global warming

12

2.6

Ecological problems Pollution Distribution of wealth Peace Poverty Global inequality Global economy Water resources Societal problems Good government Resource depletion Food-water supply Politics and business Ozone War Malnutrition/hunger 3rd world 3rd world dev Religion Nuclear holocaust North south conflict Corruption Energy consumption Morality Economic security Greed Terrorism Nationalism Nuclear technology Political instability Environmental problems Sin Health Sociopathic frailties What to do now Lack of discipline Lack of community Societal intolerance

12 11 10 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

2.6 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 .9 .9 .9 .9 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2

Population pressure Environmental change Sustainable development

A8

Table 6 continued Aids Lack of community Societal intolerance Aids Immorality Racial tension Climate prediction National unemployment USSR transition Human health Quality of life Food production Predicting the future Stress Behaviour of sun Total

2003 Valid

Population pressure Global inequality Terrorism

Climate change Poverty Sustainable development War Environmental problems Other

Global warming Peace Food-water supply Resource distribution Pollution Nuclear holocaust Resource depletion Water resources Environmental change Good government Societal intolerance Global change Distribution of wealth Malnutrition/hunger Globalization Sin 3rd world dev Violence Education Aids Ecological problems Justice Health 3rd world

A9

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 468

.2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 100.0

Frequency 114 29 28 26 24 21 21 21 19 15 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3

Valid Percent 22.0 5.6 5.4

5.0 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.7

2.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 .8 .8 .8 .8 .6 .6

Table 6 continued Global economy Lack of community Humanity Economic security Greed Corruption Energy consumption Quality of life Communicating climate change Egoism Short time horizons Technology Lack of compassion Morality Consumption Societal problems Religion North south conflict Nuclear technology Political instability Bigotry Environment vs. economy Dictatorships Purpose of life Understanding planet Malaria Human nature Natural hazards International politics Fossil fuels Total

3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 518

A10

.6 .6 .6 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 100.0

Appendix B

Figure 1. How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with hydrodynamics? 30 28

28 25

20 18

15

15 14 13

10

11

10

Percent

8

year 6 1996

4 1

0

3

2

2003

Missing

2

4

very inadequate

6

3

5

very adequate

Group Statistics

How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with hydrodynamics

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

539

4.60

1.415

.061

500

4.45

1.640

.073

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with hydrodynamics

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

22.023

.000

1.574 1.565

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1037

.116

.15

.095

-.037

.335

988.893

.118

.15

.095

-.038

.336

df

B1

Figure 2. How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with radiation? 40

34 30 29

29 25

20

16

12

10

12

11

year

Percent

8 7

6

1996 3 3

2

0 Missing

2

4

very inadequate

2003

6

3

5

very adequate

Group Statistics

How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with radiation

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

539

4.63

1.333

.057

525

4.71

1.397

.061

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with radiation

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

1.593

.207

-.929 -.929

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1062

.353

-.08

.084

-.242

.086

1056.327

.353

-.08

.084

-.242

.087

df

B2

Figure 3. How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with vapour in the atmosphere? 30

25

24 23 21

20 19

19

15

14 13

Percent

10

year

7

6

6

5

1996 2

1

0

Missing

2

4

very inadequate

2003

6

3

5

very adequate

Group Statistics

How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with water vapour in the atmosphere

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

538

3.62

1.400

.060

527

3.85

1.532

.067

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with water vapour in the atmosphere

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

6.448

.011

-2.489 -2.486

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1063

.013

-.22

.090

-.400

-.047

1050.212

.013

-.22

.090

-.400

-.047

df

B3

Figure 4. How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with the influence of clouds? 40

34 30 27

20

21 18 14

14 13 12

Percent

10

15

11

year 1996

5 5

5

3

0 Missing

2

4

very inadequate

2003

6

3

5

very adequate

Group Statistics

How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with clouds

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

538

3.06

1.503

.065

532

3.22

1.570

.068

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with clouds

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

1.539

.215

-1.768 -1.767

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1068

.077

-.17

.094

-.350

.018

1064.830

.077

-.17

.094

-.350

.018

df

B4

Figure 5. How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with precipitation? 30

26

25 23

20 18 16 16

12 10

16 15

11

year

Percent

7 5

1996

4

1

0

1

Missing

2

4

very inadequate

2003

6

3

5

very adequate

Group Statistics

How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with precipitation

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

538

3.16

1.452

.063

532

3.29

1.553

.067

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with precipitation

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

6.161

.013

-1.390 -1.389

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1068

.165

-.13

.092

-.308

.053

1061.448

.165

-.13

.092

-.308

.053

df

B5

Figure 6. How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with atmospheric convection? 30

24 21

20

21

20 18

18 18

16

10 10

9

8

year

7

Percent

6 1996 0

2

2003

Missing

2

very inadequate

4

6

3

5

very adequate

Group Statistics

How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with atmospheric convection

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

536

3.57

1.383

.060

511

3.48

1.527

.068

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How well do you think atmospheric climate models can deal with atmospheric convection

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

7.340

.007

1.058 1.055

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1045

.290

.10

.090

-.081

.272

1023.026

.291

.10

.090

-.082

.272

df

B6

Figure 7. To what extent do you think that ocean models can deal with hydrodynamics? 40

30

31

25 20

21

20

10

Percent

25

22

10

12

year

10

6 6

1996 4

3

2

0

2003

Missing

2

4

very inadequate

6

3

5

very adequate

Group Statistics

To what extent do you think that ocean models can deal with hydrodynamics

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

527

4.60

1.313

.057

434

4.71

1.434

.069

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what extent do you think that ocean models can deal with hydrodynamics

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

4.974

.026

-1.309 -1.298

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

959

.191

-.12

.089

-.290

.058

888.488

.195

-.12

.090

-.292

.060

df

B7

Figure 8. To what extent do you think that ocean models can deal with heat transport in the ocean? 40 37

30 27

20

20

20

18

17 15

13 11

Percent

10

year 8

7

1996

3 0

2003 Missing

2

very inadequate

4

6

3

5

very adequate

Group Statistics

To what extent do you think that ocean models can deal with heat transport in the ocean

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

527

4.42

1.247

.054

457

4.49

1.328

.062

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what extent do you think that ocean models can deal with heat transport in the ocean

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

3.921

.048

-.911 -.907

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

982

.362

-.07

.082

-.236

.086

942.366

.364

-.07

.083

-.237

.087

df

B8

Figure 9. To what extent do you think that ocean models can deal with oceanic convection? 30

26 23

22

23

20

20

16

16

14 12 10 9

Percent

year 6 5 4

4

1996 2003

0 Missing

2

4

very inadequate

6

3

5

very adequate

Group Statistics

To what extent do you think that ocean models can deal with oceanic convection

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

526

3.71

1.300

.057

433

3.82

1.429

.069

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what extent do you think that ocean models can deal with oceanic convection

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

7.007

.008

-1.350 -1.338

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

957

.177

-.12

.088

-.292

.054

883.539

.181

-.12

.089

-.294

.056

df

B9

Figure 10. To what extent do you think that ocean models can deal with the coupling of atmospheric models and ocean models? 30 28

21

20

20

20 19 17 16 14

13 10

Percent

8 8

8

year 1996

3

3

2003

0 Missing

2

4

very inadequate

6

3

5

very adequate

Group Statistics

To what extent do you think that ocean models can deal with the coupling of atmospheric and ocean models

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

531

3.29

1.320

.057

485

3.62

1.505

.068

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what extent do you think that ocean models can deal with the coupling of atmospheric and ocean models

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

17.073

.000

-3.755 -3.733

B10

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1014

.000

-.33

.089

-.507

-.159

967.249

.000

-.33

.089

-.508

-.158

df

Figure 11. The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of turbulence. 30

23 20

20

20 18

19

17 14

15

13 11 12

Percent

10

6

year

7

1996

3 0

2003 Missing

2

4

strongly disagree

6

3

5

strongly agree

Group Statistics

The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of turbulence

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

527

3.68

1.483

.065

485

3.68

1.586

.072

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of turbulence

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

F

Sig.

t

df

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

5.639

.018

-.074

1010

.941

-.01

.096

-.196

.182

-.074

987.91

.941

-.01

.097

-.197

.183

B11

Figure 12. The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of surface albedo. 40

33

32

30

26

25

20

15

15

Percent

10

11 7 7

7 0

year

9 7

1996

3

2 Missing

2

4

strongly disagree

2003

6

3

5

strongly agree

Group Statistics

The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of surface albedo

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

533

4.58

1.339

.058

521

4.91

1.431

.063

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of surface albedo

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means 95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

F

Sig.

t

df

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

.000

.991

-3.934

1052

.000

-.34

.085

-.503

-.168

-3.931

1043.710

.000

-.34

.085

-.503

-.168

B12

Figure 13. The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of land surface processes. 40

30 29

23 22

21

20 17

17

16

15

13 10

year

Percent

8 5 0

3

1996 4

3

Missing

2003 2

4

strongly disagree

6

3

5

strongly agree

Group Statistics

The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of land surface proceses

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

530

3.71

1.387

.060

528

4.01

1.444

.063

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of land surface proceses

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

1.036

.309

-3.403

-3.403

B13

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1056

.001

-.30

.087

-.467

-.125

1053.932

.001

-.30

.087

-.467

-.125

df

Figure 14. The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of sea-ice. 30

27 27

26

20 18

17

13

13

12

10

19

10 9

Percent

year 1996

4

3

2

0 Missing

2003 2

4

strongly disagree

6

3

5

strongly agree

Group Statistics

The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of sea ice

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

531

3.86

1.346

.058

502

4.09

1.374

.061

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of sea ice

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.301

.584

-2.637

-2.636

B14

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1031

.008

-.22

.085

-.389

-.057

1024.932

.009

-.22

.085

-.389

-.057

df

Figure 15. The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of green-house gases. 40

35 30 29 25 20 20 18

12

10

13 10

Percent

8 8

year

10

1996 3

0

3

3 3

Missing

2

4

strongly disagree

2003

6

3

5

strongly agree

Group Statistics

The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of greenhouse gases

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

537

4.47

1.458

.063

540

4.84

1.595

.069

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of greenhouse gases

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

2.724

.099

-3.908

-3.909

B15

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1075

.000

-.36

.093

-.547

-.181

1067.473

.000

-.36

.093

-.547

-.181

df

Figure 16. Climate models accurately verify the climatic conditions for which they are calibrated. 30 28 25

21

20 18

17 16

15

14 13 10

10

Percent

8

year

5 1996

3 0

2 2

1

2003

Missing

2

strongly agree

4

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

Climate models accurately verify the climatic conditions for which they are calibrated

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

538

3.93

1.514

.065

539

3.94

1.591

.069

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

Climate models accurately verify the climatic conditions for which they are calibrated

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

2.449

.118

-.099 -.099

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1075

.921

-.01

.095

-.195

.176

1072.607

.921

-.01

.095

-.195

.176

df

B16

Figure 17. Climate models can accurately predict climatic conditions of the future. 30 28

23 22 20 18

18 18 15

15 15 13

10

Percent

year 6

5

1996

3 0

2003 Missing

2

4

strongly agree

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

Climate models can accurately predict climatic conditions of the future.

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

540

4.69

1.560

.067

542

4.53

1.583

.068

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

Climate models can accurately predict climatic conditions of the future.

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.492

.483

1.668 1.669

B17

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1080

.096

.16

.096

-.028

.347

1079.871

.096

.16

.096

-.028

.347

df

Figure 18. To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of inter-annual variability? 30 27

23 20

21

20 17

17

17

16 15

10

10

year

Percent

7

0

1996

4

4 2

2003

Missing

2

a great degree

4

6

3

5

none at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of inter-annual variability

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

536

4.63

1.496

.065

538

4.01

1.503

.065

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of inter-annual variability

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.030

.863

6.789

6.789

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1072

.000

.62

.092

.442

.801

1071.999

.000

.62

.092

.442

.801

df

B18

Figure 19. To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of climatic variability of time scales of 10 years? 30

25 24

23

23

20

21

16

16 14 13

10 9

Percent

8

year 1996

4 0

2 2

2003

Missing

2

4

a great degree

6

3

5

none at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of climatic variablity of time scales of 10 years

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

537

4.89

1.413

.061

549

4.51

1.495

.064

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of climatic variablity of time scales of 10 years

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

8.273

.004

4.304

4.306

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1084

.000

.38

.088

.207

.553

1082.729

.000

.38

.088

.207

.553

df

B19

Figure 20. To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of climatic variability of time scales of 100 years? 30 28 25 22 20 18 16

16 16

15

14 12 10 9

Percent

year

0

1996

4

3 1

2003

Missing

2

4

a great degree

6

3

5

none at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of climatic variablity of time scales of 100 years

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

538

5.24

1.579

.068

541

4.78

1.653

.071

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of climatic variablity of time scales of 100 years

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

1.877

.171

4.652

4.653

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1077

.000

.46

.098

.265

.651

1075.303

.000

.46

.098

.265

.651

df

B20

Figure 21. To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of climatic variability of time scales of greater than 100 years? 50

40 38

30

25 20

23

21

15

Percent

10

10

11

13

year

11

11

1996

7 5

5 0

2003 Missing

2

4

a great degree

6

3

5

none at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of climatic variablity of time scales of >100 years

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

537

5.47

1.657

.072

528

5.11

1.640

.071

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think the current state of scientific knowledge is able to provide reasonable predictions of climatic variablity of time scales of >100 years

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.308

.579

3.594

3.594

B21

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1063

.000

.36

.101

.165

.561

1062.953

.000

.36

.101

.165

.561

df

Figure 22. To what degree do you think that, through the process of downscaling, it is now possible to determine local climate impacts? 30

26

25

23 20

21

20 19 18

13 10 8

Percent

8

7

year 6 1996

3

3 0

2003 Missing

2

4

a great degree

6

3

5

none at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think that, through the process of downscaling, it is now possible to determine local climate impacts

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

532

4.75

1.361

.059

516

4.57

1.467

.065

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think that, through the process of downscaling, it is now possible to determine local climate impacts

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

8.008

.005

2.062

2.060

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1046

.039

.18

.087

.009

.352

1034.484

.040

.18

.087

.009

.352

df

B22

Figure 23. To what degree can we explicitly state the detrimental effects that climate change will have on society? 30

26 25 23

23 21

20 18 15 13 10

11 9

year

Percent

8 5

1996 3

1 1

0

2003

Missing

2

4

a great degree

6

3

5

none at all

Group Statistics

To what degree can we explicitly state the detrimental effects that climate change will have on society

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

541

4.43

1.539

.066

544

4.22

1.550

.066

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree can we explicitly state the detrimental effects that climate change will have on society

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.003

.953

2.280 2.280

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1083

.023

.21

.094

.030

.398

1082.996

.023

.21

.094

.030

.398

df

B23

Figure 24. To what degree do you think climate change will have detrimental effects for some societies? 50

40

41 36 32

30

22

20 20

15

year

Percent

10

10 1996 5

3 4

3

0

Missing

2

2 4

4

a great degree

2003

6

3

5

none at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think climate change will have detrimental effects for some societies

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

544

2.47

1.215

.052

544

2.25

1.353

.058

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think climate change will have detrimental effects for some societies

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

1.056

.304

2.806 2.806

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1086

.005

.22

.078

.066

.372

1073.702

.005

.22

.078

.066

.372

df

B24

Figure 25. To what degree do you think climate change will have a detrimental effect for the society in which you live? 30

27 27

23 20 18 16

16 14

14 13

12

10

Percent

year 5

4

1996

4

3

3

0

2003 Missing

2

4

a great degree

6

3

5

none at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think climate change will have a detrimental effect for the society in which you live

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

543

3.81

1.474

.063

533

3.70

1.501

.065

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think climate change will have a detrimental effect for the society in which you live

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.967

.326

1.219 1.218

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1074

.223

.11

.091

-.067

.289

1072.575

.223

.11

.091

-.067

.289

df

B25

Figure 26. To what degree do you think that climate change might have some positive effects for some societies? 50

40

42

33

30

25 22

20

Percent

10

4 0

year

13

11 9

9

8

7

4

1996

5

5

2003

Missing

2

4

a great degree

6

3

5

none at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think that climate change might have some positive effects for some societies

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

315

3.39

1.449

.082

534

3.11

1.401

.061

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think that climate change might have some positive effects for some societies

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

1.597

.207

2.772 2.748

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

847

.006

.28

.101

.082

.477

640.969

.006

.28

.102

.080

.479

df

The large reduction in 1996 N is the result of the question being missed in the translation of the questionnaire into German, therefore N, in this case, does not include the German sample.

B26

Figure 27. To what degree do you think that climate change might have some positive effects for the society in which you live?. 30

25 23

22 21

20

18

18

17

16

12

10

Percent

8

year

8 5

5

1996

0

2003 Missing

2

a great degree

4

6

3

5

none at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think that climate change might have some positive effects for the society in which you live

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

540

4.70

1.459

.063

514

4.30

1.427

.063

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think that climate change might have some positive effects for the society in which you live

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.402

.526

4.544 4.547

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1052

.000

.40

.089

.230

.579

1051.211

.000

.40

.089

.230

.579

df

B27

Figure 28. We can say for certain that global warming is a process already underway. 40

34 31

30

26

26

20

16 13 11

10

year

Percent

10 8 6 5

4

3

2

0

Missing

2

strongly agree

1996

5

4

2003

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

We can say for certain that global warming is a process already underway.

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

542

3.39

1.677

.072

546

2.41

1.533

.066

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

We can say for certain that global warming is a process already underway.

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

13.253

.000

10.054 10.050

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1086

.000

.98

.097

.788

1.170

1075.889

.000

.98

.097

.788

1.170

df

B28

Figure 29. How much do you think global climate change is one of the leading problems facing humanity? 40

30 29 27

26

23 20 17 13

12

10

11

Percent

year

10

9

9

7

1996 3 3

0 Missing

2

4

very much

2003

6

3

5

not at all

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

Group Statistics

How much do you think global climate change is one of the leading problems facing humanity

year 1996

N

2003

544

3.21

1.583

.068

553

2.92

1.756

.075

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How much do you think global climate change is one of the leading problems facing humanity

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

6.613

.010

2.899 2.901

B29

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1095

.004

.29

.101

.095

.491

1086.791

.004

.29

.101

.095

.491

df

Figure 30. Climate change is mostly the result of anthropogenic causes. 30

24 20

20

20 18

17 14

13

14

10

11

Percent

9

10

8

year

5

5 0

10

1996

1

2003

Missing

2

4

strongly agree

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

Climate change is mostly the result of anthropogenic causes

year 1996

539

Mean 4.17

Std. Deviation 1.804

Std. Error Mean .078

530

3.62

1.840

.080

N

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

Climate change is mostly the result of anthropogenic causes

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.003

.957

4.968 4.967

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1067

.000

.55

.111

.335

.772

1065.553

.000

.55

.111

.335

.772

df

B30

Figure 31. We can say for certain that, without change in human behavior, global warming will definitely occur some time in the future. 50

42

40

30

31 27 25

20 16

year

Percent

10

11 7

7

1996

6 3

3

0

Missing

2

4

strongly agree

5 5

4

5 2003

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

We can say for certain that, without change in human behavior, global warming will definitely occur some time in the future.

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

539

2.67

1.677

.072

541

2.35

1.751

.075

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

We can say for certain that, without change in human behavior, global warming will definitely occur some time in the future.

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.037

.847

3.035

3.035

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1078

.002

.32

.104

.112

.521

1076.349

.002

.32

.104

.112

.521

df

B31

Figure 32. Climate should be considered a natural resource. 60 57 50 48 40

30

20

21 18

Percent

year 10 9

7

11

1996

8

6 3 3

3

0 Missing

2

4

strongly agree

2003

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

Climate should be considered a natural resource.

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

536

1.98

1.519

.066

519

2.07

1.512

.066

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

Climate should be considered a natural resource.

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.003

.955

-1.004 -1.004

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1053

.316

-.09

.093

-.277

.089

1052.176

.316

-.09

.093

-.277

.089

df

B32

Figure 33. Assuming climate change will occur, it will occur so suddenly, that a lack of preparation could result in devastation of some areas of the world. 30

20

20 19

19

18 16 16

15

11

10 10

9

10

10

10

9

year

Percent

7

1996 0

2003 Missing

2

strongly agree

4

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

Assuming climate change will occur, it will occur so suddenly, that a lack of preparation could result in devastation of some areas of the world

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

540

4.26

1.746

.075

503

3.79

1.809

.081

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

Assuming climate change will occur, it will occur so suddenly, that a lack of preparation could result in devastation of some areas of the world

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.310

.578

4.301

4.296

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1041

.000

.47

.110

.258

.690

1029.320

.000

.47

.110

.257

.690

df

B33

Figure 34. There is enough uncertainty about the phenomenon of global warming that there is no need for immediate policy decisions. 50 46 40

33

30

32

24 20

15

year

Percent

10

10

3

0

4

7

6

1996

6 4

Missing

5

2

4

2003

4

strongly agree

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

There is enough uncertainty about the phenomenon of global warming that there is no need for immediate policy decisions.

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

543

5.48

1.656

.071

555

5.67

1.788

.076

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

There is enough uncertainty about the phenomenon of global warming that there is no need for immediate policy decisions.

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

2.105

.147

-1.823

-1.824

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1096

.069

-.19

.104

-.394

.015

1092.698

.068

-.19

.104

-.394

.014

df

B34

Figure 35. To what degree do you think it would be possible for most societies to adapt to climate change without having to make any substantial changes? 40

30 30

30 26

20

21

14 12 13

12

10

Percent

year

10

10

8 1996

5

4

3 2003

0 Missing

2

4

there is a need for

6

3

5

no substantial chang

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think it would be possible for most societies to adapt to climate change without having to make any substantial changes to current societal practices

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

540

2.96

1.377

.059

529

3.36

1.625

.071

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

F To what degree do you think it would be possible for most societies to adapt to climate change without having to make any substantial changes to current societal practices

Equal variances assumed

Equal variances not assumed

38.195

Sig. .000

t-test for Equality of Means

t

df

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

-4.426

1067

.000

-.41

.092

-.588

-.227

-4.418

1031.863

.000

-.41

.092

-.588

-.226

B35

Figure 36. To what extent do you agree or disagree that the IPCC reports are of great use to the advancement of climate science? 40

30

30

25 25

25

20 17

18

14

Percent

10

year 8

8

5 0

4

3 Missing

2

4

strongly agree

5

4

1996

4 3

2003

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

The IPCC reports are of great use to the advancement of climate science

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

530

3.04

1.482

.064

529

2.61

1.705

.074

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

The IPCC reports are of great use to the advancement of climate science

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

12.427

.000

4.350 4.350

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1057

.000

.43

.098

.234

.620

1036.336

.000

.43

.098

.234

.620

df

B36

Figure 37. To what extent do you agree or disagree that the IPCC reports accurately reflect the consensus of thought within the scientific community? 40

30

31

26 23 20

23

22

14

Percent

10 7 0

year

10 8

8

7

6

1996

5

4 4

3

2003

Missing

2

4

strongly agree

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

The IPCC reports accurately reflect the consensus of thought within the scientific community

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

529

3.38

1.468

.064

521

2.83

1.768

.077

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

The IPCC reports accurately reflect the consensus of thought within the scientific community

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

18.419

.000

5.515 5.507

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1048

.000

.55

.100

.356

.749

1008.270

.000

.55

.100

.356

.750

df

B37

Figure 38. To what extent do you agree or disagree that climate change is an extremely complex subject, full of uncertainties, and this allows for a greater range of interpretations than many other scientific endeavors? 40

33 31

30

30 29

20 18 18

Percent

10

year 8

6

3

3

0 Missing

2

4

strongly agree

1996

5

5 5

2003

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

Climate change is an extremely complex subject, full of uncertainties, and this allows for a greater range of assumptions and interpretations than many other scientific endeavors

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

537

2.34

1.417

.061

551

2.52

1.586

.068

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

Climate change is an extremely complex subject, full of uncertainties, and this allows for a greater range of assumptions and interpretations than many other scientific endeavors

Equal variances assumed

Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

7.493

.006

-2.034

-2.036

B38

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1086

.042

-.19

.091

-.365

-.007

1077.929

.042

-.19

.091

-.364

-.007

df

Figure 39. To what extent do you agree or disagree that the users of the information produced by General Circulation Models are most often aware of the uncertainties associated with such models? 30

23 20 20 18 18

17

18

15

14 11 11

10

10 8

Percent

7

year

6 1996

4 0

2

2003

Missing

2

4

strongly agree

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

The users of the information produced by General Circulation Models are most often aware of the uncertainties associated with such models

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

536

4.10

1.822

.079

537

4.24

1.781

.077

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

The users of the information produced by General Circulation Models are most often aware of the uncertainties associated with such models

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.643

.423

-1.302

-1.302

B39

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1071

.193

-.14

.110

-.359

.073

1070.339

.193

-.14

.110

-.359

.073

df

Figure 40. To what extent do you agree or disagree that in general, those scientists producing GCMs are knowledgeable about what data are needed by those scientists that endeavor to study the impacts of climate change? 30

26

25 23

21

20

18

17

13 12 10 9 10

Percent

8

year 5

1996

4 0

3 3

2

2003

Missing

2

4

strongly agree

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

In general, those scientists producing GCMs are knowledgeable about what data are needed by those scientists that endeavor to study the impacts of climate change

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

535

3.64

1.466

.063

512

3.47

1.570

.069

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

In general, those scientists producing GCMs are knowledgeable about what data are needed by those scientists that endeavor to study the impacts of climate change

Equal variances assumed

Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

3.807

.051

1.735

1.733

B40

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1045

.083

.16

.094

-.021

.347

1032.008

.083

.16

.094

-.022

.347

df

Figure 41. To what extent do you agree or disagree that CO2 will have controlled emission levels in the near future? 30

26 24 20 17

13

12

11

10

17 14

13

14

10

9

Percent

8

year 1996

3 3

3

2003

0 Missing

2

strongly agree

4

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

CO2 will have controlled emission levels in the near future.

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

532

4.41

1.697

.074

494

4.79

1.737

.078

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

CO2 will have controlled emission levels in the near future.

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.004

.947

-3.486 -3.483

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1024

.001

-.37

.107

-.584

-.163

1014.359

.001

-.37

.107

-.584

-.163

df

B41

Figure 42. To what extent do you agree or disagree that natural scientists have established enough physical evidence to turn the issue of global climate change over to social scientists for matters of policy discussion? 30

20 20

19 17

17

16

16

12

10

10

15 16

11 11

8

year

Percent

7

1996

4 0

2

2003

Missing

2

4

strongly agree

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

Natural scientists have established enough physical evidence to turn the issue of global climate change over to social scientists for matters of policy discussion

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

534

4.27

1.934

.084

538

4.11

1.995

.086

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

Natural scientists have established enough physical evidence to turn the issue of global climate change over to social scientists for matters of policy discussion

Equal variances assumed

Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.922

.337

1.364

1.364

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1070

.173

.16

.120

-.072

.399

1069.404

.173

.16

.120

-.072

.399

df

B42

Figure 43. To what extent do you agree or disagree that stabilizing CO2 emissions will require a fundamental restructuring of the global economy? 40

34 32

30

33

27

20 17 17

Percent

10

year 6 5

5

5 5

4 4

0 Missing

2

4

strongly agree

1996 3

2003

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

Stabilizing CO2 emissions will require a fundamental restructuring of the global economy.

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

538

2.36

1.464

.063

529

2.42

1.593

.069

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

Stabilizing CO2 emissions will require a fundamental restructuring of the global economy.

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

4.204

.041

-.632 -.631

B43

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1065

.528

-.06

.094

-.243

.125

1054.256

.528

-.06

.094

-.243

.125

df

Figure 44. To what extent do you agree or disagree that the climate sciences are developed well enough to provide information for local social impact assessments? 30

25 23

22 20

21

15

16 13 14

12 12

12

10

9

Percent

year 1996

3 2

0

2

2003

Missing

2

4

strongly agree

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

The climate sciences are developed well enough to provide information for local social impact assessments

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

540

4.56

1.697

.073

549

4.53

1.718

.073

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

The climate sciences are developed well enough to provide information for local social impact assessments

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.015

.902

.265 .265

B44

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1087

.791

.03

.103

-.176

.230

1086.976

.791

.03

.103

-.176

.230

df

Figure 45. To what extent do you agree or disagree that climate scientists are well attuned to the sensitivity of human social systems to climate impacts? 30

27

20

21

21 19

18

15 14

14

13

10

Percent

9

8

8

year

6

2

0

5

1996

2

2003

Missing

2

4

strongly agree

6

3

5

strongly disagree

Group Statistics

Climate scientists are well attuned to the sensitivity of human social systems to climate impacts

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

534

3.87

1.657

.072

515

4.70

1.541

.068

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

Climate scientists are well attuned to the sensitivity of human social systems to climate impacts

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

4.975

.026

-8.433 -8.444

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1047

.000

-.83

.099

-1.028

-.640

1045.625

.000

-.83

.099

-1.028

-.640

df

B45

Figure 46. How often are you contacted by the media for information pertaining to climate change? 30 28

27 26

22 20

14 11

10

Percent

9

3 0

12

12

8

11 8

year 1996

4

1 2

2003

Missing

2

very often

4

6

3

5

not at all

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

Group Statistics

How often are you contacted by the media for information pertaining to climate change?

year 1996

N

2003

539

4.95

1.814

.078

549

5.12

1.827

.078

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How often are you contacted by the media for information pertaining to climate change?

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.046

.830

-1.592 -1.593

B46

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1086

.112

-.18

.110

-.392

.041

1085.864

.112

-.18

.110

-.392

.041

df

Figure 47. To what degree do you think exposure to the media has the potential to change the attitude of the scientist? 30

27 24 20

17

17 17

16 14 14 12 10 10 8

Percent

4 0

year

7

6

1996

4

2

2003

Missing

2

4

a great deal

6

3

5

not at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think exposure to the media has the potential to change the attitude of the scientist

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

535

3.95

1.675

.072

513

3.77

1.674

.074

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think exposure to the media has the potential to change the attitude of the scientist

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.017

.898

1.754 1.754

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1046

.080

.18

.103

-.022

.385

1044.172

.080

.18

.103

-.022

.385

df

B47

Figure 48. How much do you think scientists actually enjoy the attention they receive in the popular media? 40

30

30

25 22

20

23 18 15

12

10 9

Percent

11

10

year

9 7 6

1996

0

2003 Missing

2

very much

4

6

3

5

not at all

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

Group Statistics

How much do you think scientists actually enjoy the attention they receive in the popular media

year 1996

N

2003

538

3.24

1.412

.061

510

3.13

1.508

.067

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How much do you think scientists actually enjoy the attention they receive in the popular media

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

2.677

.102

1.202 1.200

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1046

.230

.11

.090

-.069

.285

1031.245

.231

.11

.090

-.069

.286

df

B48

Figure 49. How much do you think that a scientist's exposure to publicity influences the direction of his or her future research? 40

33 30

26 20 19 17

16 14

14 13

11

10

11

year

Percent

8 7

1996

4

4

0

2003 Missing

2

4

very much

6

3

5

not at all

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

Group Statistics

How much do you think that a scientist's exposure to publicity influences the direction of his or her future research

year 1996

N 540

3.65

1.466

.063

511

3.84

1.685

.075

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How much do you think that a scientist's exposure to publicity influences the direction of his or her future research

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

19.398

.000

-1.890 -1.883

B49

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1049

.059

-.18

.097

-.375

.007

1011.360

.060

-.18

.098

-.375

.008

df

Figure 50. How much have you been involved with those people who make climate related policy decisions? 50

40 39 34 30

23 20

21

12 13

Percent

10

11

7 8

6 6

2

4

year 10 1996

3 3

0

2003

Missing very much

6

3

5

not at all

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

Group Statistics

How much have you been involved with those people who make climate related policy decisions

year 1996

N

2003

544

5.37

1.817

.078

547

5.24

1.855

.079

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How much have you been involved with those people who make climate related policy decisions

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.681

.409

1.202 1.202

B50

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1089

.230

.13

.111

-.085

.352

1088.746

.230

.13

.111

-.085

.352

df

Figure 51. How much would you rate global climate change as a problem that concerns the social and economic aspects of societies? 40

35 30

30

30

24 21

20

16

10

year

Percent

9 7

7 7

6

1996

4 0

2003 Missing

2

4

very much a problem

6

3

5

not a problem at all

Group Statistics

How much would you rate global climate change as a problem that concerns the social and economic aspects of societies

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

542

2.57

1.373

.059

552

2.55

1.552

.066

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How much would you rate global climate change as a problem that concerns the social and economic aspects of societies

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

12.263

.000

.281 .281

B51

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1092

.779

.02

.089

-.149

.199

1080.483

.779

.02

.089

-.149

.199

df

Figure 52. How much do you think the IPCC reports are used in the decision making process of climate related policy issues? 30

27 25

24

22 20

17 15

12

10

12 10

10

8

Percent

8

year

5

1996

3 2

0 Missing

2

4

very much

2003

6

3

5

not at all

Group Statistics

How much do you think the IPCC reports are used in the decision making process of climate related policy issues

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

518

3.65

1.400

.062

472

3.14

1.476

.068

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How much do you think the IPCC reports are used in the decision making process of climate related policy issues

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.186

.667

5.607

5.593

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

988

.000

.51

.091

.333

.692

967.507

.000

.51

.092

.333

.692

df

B52

Figure 53. To what extent are those who present the extremes of the climate debate, for example, those presenting the worst case scenarios or those claiming that climate change is a hoax, the people most likely to be listened to by those involved in making policy decisions? The large reduction in 1996 N is the result of the question being poorly translated into German, therefore N, in this case, does not include the German sample. 50

43 40

35 30

20 18

18 16

Percent

year

12

10

10

9

9

6

6 5

1996

7 5

2003

0 Missing

2

4

a great extent

6

3

5

none at all

Group Statistics

To what extent are those who present the extremes of the climate debate, for example, those presenting the worst case scenarios or those claiming that climate change is a hoax, the people most likely to be listened to by those involved in making policy de

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

309

3.13

1.458

.083

506

2.72

1.461

.065

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what extent are those who present the extremes of the climate debate, for example, those presenting the worst case scenarios or those claiming that climate change is a hoax, the people most likely to be listened to by those involved in making policy de

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.232

.630

3.872

3.874

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

813

.000

.41

.105

.201

.615

651.925

.000

.41

.105

.201

.615

df

Equal variances assumed

Equal variances not assumed

B53

Figure 54. How would you describe what you see as the working relationship between climate scientists and policy makers? 30

26

26

25 25

21

20 19

14

13 10 9

Percent

8

year

6

0

1996

4

3 1

2003

Missing

2

4

very good

6

3

5

very poor

Group Statistics

How would you describe what you see as the working relationship between climate scientists and policy makers

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

538

4.72

1.251

.054

510

4.74

1.399

.062

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How would you describe what you see as the working relationship between climate scientists and policy makers

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

7.956

.005

-.221

-.221

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1046

.825

-.02

.082

-.179

.143

1018.378

.825

-.02

.082

-.179

.143

df

B54

Figure 55. How much do you think climate scientists are aware of the information that policy makers incorporate into their decision making process? 40

30

30 27 22

20

23

18 15 15

15

Percent

10

year 8

7

7

1996

5 5 2

0

2003

Missing

2

4

very aware

6

3

5

not aware at all

Group Statistics

year 1996

How much do you think climate scientists are aware of the information that policy makers incorporate into their decision making process

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

542

4.59

1.337

.057

520

4.56

1.490

.065

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How much do you think climate scientists are aware of the information that policy makers incorporate into their decision making process

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

11.557

.001

.312

.312

B55

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1060

.755

.03

.087

-.143

.197

1036.999

.755

.03

.087

-.144

.198

df

Figure 56. To what degree do you think that the results of scientific inquiry are instrumental in causing policy makers to redefine their perception of a climate related issue? 40

30

31

26 23 20 18

17

17 14

15 12

Percent

10

10

year

7 1996 4

2 2

0 Missing

2

4

very much

2003

6

3

5

not at all

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think that the results of scientific inquiry are instrumental in causing policy makers to redefine their perception of a climate related issue

year 1996

N 543

4.01

1.356

.058

518

3.99

1.522

.067

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think that the results of scientific inquiry are instrumental in causing policy makers to redefine their perception of a climate related issue

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

10.115

.002

.211

.211

B56

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1059

.833

.02

.088

-.155

.192

1032.114

.833

.02

.089

-.155

.193

df

Figure 57. How often do you think policy makers draw on the most current and state-ofthe-art knowledge of the climate sciences? 40

30 29 26 24 22

20 20

18

19 18

Percent

10

year 6

3

0 Missing

1996

5

4 4 2

4

always

2003

6

3

5

never

Group Statistics

How often do you think policy makers draw on the most current and state-of-the-art knowledge of the climate sciences

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

539

4.62

1.316

.057

522

4.66

1.297

.057

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How often do you think policy makers draw on the most current and state-of-the-art knowledge of the climate sciences

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.003

.958

-.466

-.466

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1059

.641

-.04

.080

-.195

.120

1058.676

.641

-.04

.080

-.195

.120

df

B57

Figure 58. How often do you think that experts frame problems so that the solution fits his or her area of expertise? 50

40 38

32

30

31

30

20

15 13

Percent

10

year

9

8

6 0

1996 5

4

3

3

2003

Missing always

2

3

4

5

6

Group Statistics

How often do you think that experts frame problems so that the solution fits his or her area of expertise

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

531

3.04

1.111

.048

507

3.07

1.179

.052

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How often do you think that experts frame problems so that the solution fits his or her area of expertise

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

3.737

.053

-.443 -.442

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1036

.658

-.03

.071

-.171

.108

1024.572

.659

-.03

.071

-.171

.108

df

B58

Figure 59. How much do you feel that scientists have played a role in transforming the climate issue from being a scientific issue to a social and public issue? 40

35 30

30 28 25

20

13 14

Percent

10

11 12

year

7

7

6

1996

5

4 0

2003 Missing

2

very much

4

6

3

5

not at all

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

Group Statistics

How much do you feel that scientists have played a role in transforming the climate issue from being a scientific issue to a social and public issue

year 1996

N 542

3.15

1.308

.056

536

3.22

1.392

.060

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How much do you feel that scientists have played a role in transforming the climate issue from being a scientific issue to a social and public issue

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

4.586

.032

-.882

-.882

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1076

.378

-.07

.082

-.234

.089

1070.218

.378

-.07

.082

-.234

.089

df

B59

Figure 60. To what degree do you think climate science has remained a value-neutral science? 30 28

22

22

20

19

19 16 14 13

13 10

10 9

Percent

year 6 4 1

0

1996

2 2

2003

Missing

2

a great degree

4

6

3

5

not at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think climate science has remained a value-neutral science

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

539

4.23

1.400

.060

508

4.29

1.599

.071

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think climate science has remained a value-neutral science

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

22.889

.000

-.701 -.698

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1045

.484

-.06

.093

-.247

.117

1008.175

.485

-.06

.093

-.248

.118

df

B60

Figure 61. Some scientists present the extremes of the climate debate in a popular format with the claim that it is their task to alert the public. How much do you agree with this practice? 30

25

20

21

21 19

19 17 14 12

10

11 10

9

year

Percent

7 7 4 0

1996

4

2

2003

Missing

2

4

very much

6

3

5

not at all

Group Statistics

Some scientists present the extremes of the climate debate in a popular format with the claim that it is their task to alert the public. How much do you agree with this practice

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

537

4.09

1.992

.086

536

4.75

1.886

.081

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

Some scientists present the extremes of the climate debate in a popular format with the claim that it is their task to alert the public. How much do you agree with this practice

Equal variances assumed

Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

5.011

.025

-5.532

-5.532

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1071

.000

-.66

.118

-.887

-.423

1068.031

.000

-.66

.118

-.887

-.423

df

B61

Figure 62. How much influence do you think the IPCC has over what areas come to be considered worthy research topics? 40

34 31

30

24

23

20 20

14

Percent

10

11

10

year

9 6

5

1996 4 3

4

0

2003 Missing

2

4

a great influence

6

3

5

no influence at all

Group Statistics

How much influence do you think the IPCC has over what areas come to be considered worthy research topics

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

518

3.31

1.200

.053

480

2.82

1.298

.059

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How much influence do you think the IPCC has over what areas come to be considered worthy research topics

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

1.566

.211

6.174 6.156

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

996

.000

.49

.079

.333

.643

972.734

.000

.49

.079

.333

.644

df

B62

Figure 63. How much do you think the direction of research in the climate sciences has been influenced by external politics? 40

35 32

30 27

26

20

14 10

11 9

Percent

8

9

year

9

7

7

1996

4 0

2003 Missing

2

very much

4

6

3

5

not at all

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

Group Statistics

How much do you think the direction of research in the climate sciences has been influenced by external politics

year 1996

N 542

3.14

1.390

.060

534

2.82

1.391

.060

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How much do you think the direction of research in the climate sciences has been influenced by external politics

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.379

.538

3.775 3.775

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1074

.000

.32

.085

.154

.486

1073.727

.000

.32

.085

.154

.486

df

B63

Figure 64. To what degree do you think climate scientists have control over what information gets transferred to the policy makers? 30

23 22

21 22

20

18

18 16 13 12

13

10

year

Percent

7 5 3

1996 3

3

2003

0 Missing

2

4

a great degree

6

3

5

no control at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think climate scientists have control over what information gets transferred to the policy makers

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

541

4.06

1.603

.069

521

4.23

1.560

.068

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think climate scientists have control over what information gets transferred to the policy makers

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.442

.506

-1.723

-1.724

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1060

.085

-.17

.097

-.358

.023

1059.889

.085

-.17

.097

-.358

.023

df

B64

Figure 65. To what degree do you think policy makers are influential in causing scientists to redefine their perceptions of an issue? 30

24 22

22

21

20

20 20 18

14 10 10

9

year

Percent

7 4 4

3 0

1

1

1996 2003

Missing

2

4

a great degree

6

3

5

not at all

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think policy makers are influential in causing scientists to redefine their perceptions of an issue

year 1996

N

2003

538

4.37

1.470

.063

520

4.27

1.539

.067

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think policy makers are influential in causing scientists to redefine their perceptions of an issue

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

1.665

.197

1.006 1.005

B65

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1056

.315

.09

.093

-.088

.275

1049.344

.315

.09

.093

-.089

.275

df

Figure 66. To what degree do you think there is growing pressure for climate research to be justified in terms of policy relevance? 40

36 34 30 30

24 20

15 12

10

Percent

year

10

9

7

7

1996

5

4

3

0 Missing

2

4

a great degree

2003

6

3

5

none at all

Group Statistics

To what degree do you think there is growing pressure for climate research to be justified in terms of policy relevance

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

537

2.98

1.326

.057

521

2.63

1.278

.056

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

To what degree do you think there is growing pressure for climate research to be justified in terms of policy relevance

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

.843

.359

4.298 4.301

B66

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1056

.000

.34

.080

.187

.501

1055.952

.000

.34

.080

.187

.501

df

Figure 67. How much do you think climate scientists should be involved in alerting the general public to the possible social consequences arising from changes in the climate? 40

34 34 30

23

23

20

21 17

Percent

10

11 7

year 6

5 6

2 2

2

0

1996

5

Missing

2

a great deal

4

2003

6

3

5

not at all

Group Statistics

How much do you think climate scientists should be involved in alerting the general public to the possible social consequences arising from changes in the climate

year 1996

N

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

537

2.65

1.557

.067

547

2.77

1.458

.062

2003

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How much do you think climate scientists should be involved in alerting the general public to the possible social consequences arising from changes in the climate

Equal variances assumed

Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

1.860

.173

-1.307

-1.306

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1082

.191

-.12

.092

-.300

.060

1074.384

.192

-.12

.092

-.300

.060

df

B67

Figure 68. How often do you think the members of the general public are being given only part of the picture? 50

40

41 39

30

30 25

20

21

15

year

Percent

10

1996

6 6 0

4

3 Missing

2

2

4

always

3

2003 6

3

5

never

Group Statistics

How often do you think the members of the general public are being given only part of the picture?

year 1996

N

2003

Mean

Std. Deviation

Std. Error Mean

540

2.34

1.228

.053

540

2.12

1.122

.048

Independent Samples Test Levene's Test for Equality of Variances

How often do you think the members of the general public are being given only part of the picture?

Equal variances assumed Equal variances not assumed

t-test for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

9.631

.002

3.104 3.104

95% Confidence Interval of the Difference Lower Upper

Sig. (2-tailed)

Mean Difference

Std. Error Difference

1078

.002

.22

.072

.082

.363

1069.257

.002

.22

.072

.082

.363

df

B68

The following questions were asked only in the 2003 survey Figure 69. How much has climate science advanced in the understanding of climate change in the last 5 years? 40

30 29

31

20

12

10

Percent

9 8

7

0

3 Missing

2 not at all

4 3

6 5

a significant amount

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic How much has climate science advanced in the understanding of climate change in the last 5 years? Valid N (listwise)

541

Mean Statistic Std. Error

5.04

541

B69

.06

Std. Statistic

1.445

Variance Statistic

2.089

Figure 70. How much does new scientific discovery in the last decade confirm the anthropogenic influence on climate? 40

33 30

23 20 18

Percent

10 7

0

6

6

4

3 Missing

2 not at all

4 3

6 5

a significant amount

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic How much does new scientific discovery in the last decade confirm the anthropogenic influence on climate Valid N (listwise)

540

Mean Statistic Std. Error

5.24

540

B70

.07

Std. Statistic

1.701

Variance Statistic

2.894

Figure 71. How much has the uncertainty regarding climate change been reduced in the last ten years? 40

31

30

20 19

13 10

10

Percent

9

8

6 0

3 Missing

2 not at all

4 3

6 5

a significant amount

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic How much has the uncertainty regarding climate change been reduced in the last ten years Valid N (listwise)

541

Mean Statistic Std. Error

4.40

541

B71

.07

Std. Statistic

1.702

Variance Statistic

2.897

Figure 72. Are we beginning to experience the effects of climate change? 30

27

27

20

15 12 10

Percent

7 5

6

2

0 Missing

2 not at all

4 3

6 5

a significant amount

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Are we beginning to experience the effects of climate change Valid N (listwise)

520

Mean Statistic Std. Error 5.10

520

B72

.06

Std. Statistic 1.456

Variance Statistic 2.120

Figure 73. How feasible is adaptation to climate change an option for the society in which you live? 40

32

30

22

20

21

10

Percent

9 6 5

4

0 Missing

2

not feasible at all

4 3

6 5

very feasible

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic How feasible is adaptation to climate change an option for the society in which you live Valid N (listwise)

532

Mean Statistic Std. Error 5.38

532

B73

.06

Std. Statistic 1.399

Variance Statistic 1.956

Figure 74. How feasible is adaptation as a global option? 30

24 20 18 17 15

11

Percent

10

6

5 4 0 Missing

2

not feasible at all

4

6

3

5

very feasible

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic How feasible is adaptation as a global option Valid N (listwise)

528

Mean Statistic Std. Error 3.97

528

B74

.07

Std. Statistic 1.610

Variance Statistic 2.591

Figure 75. To what degree is mitigation still an option? 30

20

20

13

20

13

10

12 11

Percent

8

3 0 Missing

2 not at all

4 3

6 5

very much

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic To what degree is mitigation still an option Valid N (listwise)

513

Mean Statistic Std. Error 4.52

513

B75

.08

Std. Statistic 1.748

Variance Statistic 3.055

Figure 76. The region in which you live could be defined as having a pattern of seasonal change that is 40

30

30

20

20

20

10

Percent

8 7

6

4

4 0 Missing

2

hardly varied

4 3

6 5

greatly varied

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic The region in which you live could be defined as having a pattern of seasonal change that is Valid N (listwise)

535

Mean Statistic Std. Error 5.12

535

B76

.07

Std. Statistic 1.697

Variance Statistic 2.878

Figure 77. How easy would it be for the general daily routine of the people who live in your local region to adapt to climate change? 40

32

30

20 19 15 12

Percent

10

8

7

5 2

0 Missing

2 very easy

4 3

6 5

very difficult

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Ease of adaptability: The general daily routine of the people who live in your local region Valid N (listwise)

530

Mean Statistic Std. Error 2.95

530

B77

.07

Std. Statistic 1.558

Variance Statistic 2.427

Figure 78. How easy would it be for the general daily routine of the people who live in your nation to adapt to climate change? 30

27 24 20

13 10

10 9

Percent

8 5

3 0 Missing

2 very easy

4 3

6 5

very difficult

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Ease of adaptability: The general daily routine of the people who live in your nation Valid N (listwise)

529

Mean Statistic Std. Error 3.29

529

B78

.07

Std. Statistic 1.561

Variance Statistic 2.437

Figure 79. How easy would it be for agriculture in your region to adapt to climate change? 30

20

21 19

15

15

13 10

Percent

8 5 3 0 Missing

2 very easy

4 3

6 5

very difficult

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Ease of adaptability: Agriculture in your region Valid N (listwise)

513

Mean Statistic Std. Error 3.89

513

B79

.07

Std. Statistic 1.586

Variance Statistic 2.517

Figure 80. How easy would it be for the housing design in your region to adapt to climate change? 40

34 30

20 19

18

10

Percent

10 7 5

5

0 Missing

2 very easy

4

6

3

5

very difficult

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Ease of adaptability: Housing design in your region Valid N (listwise)

529

Mean Statistic Std. Error 2.74

529

B80

.06

Std. Statistic 1.479

Variance Statistic 2.187

Figure 81. How easy would it be for transportation in your region to adapt to climate change? 40

30 29

20 17

16

12

10

Percent

9 7

6

4 0 Missing

2 very easy

4

6

3

5

very difficult

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Ease of adaptability: Transportation in your region Valid N (listwise)

526

Mean Statistic Std. Error 3.06

526

B81

.07

Std. Statistic 1.703

Variance Statistic 2.899

Figure 82. How easy would it be for public water utilities in your region to adapt to climate change? 20

18 17

16

16

11

10 9

8

Percent

6

0 Missing

2 very easy

4

6

3

5

very difficult

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Ease of adaptability: Public utilities in your region: water Valid N (listwise)

527

Mean Statistic Std. Error 3.94

527

B82

.08

Std. Statistic 1.818

Variance Statistic 3.304

Figure 83. How easy would it be for the public utilities of natural gas or heating and air conditioning fuels in your region to adapt to climate change? 30

22

20

21

17

13 10 9

8

Percent

7

3 0 Missing

2 very easy

4

6

3

5

very difficult

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Ease of adaptability: Public utilities in your region: natural gas, heating/air conditioning fuel Valid N (listwise)

517

Mean Statistic Std. Error

3.46

517

B83

.07

Std. Statistic

1.596

Variance Statistic

2.547

Figure 84. How easy would it be for public utility electricity in your region to adapt to climate change? 30

21

20

20 17

12

10

10 9

Percent

7 4 0 Missing

2 very easy

4

6

3

5

very difficult

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Ease of adaptability: Public utilities in your region: electricity Valid N (listwise)

518

Mean Statistic Std. Error 3.57

518

B84

.07

Std. Statistic 1.679

Variance Statistic 2.818

Figure 85. How easy would it be for forestry in your nation to adapt to climate change? 20

18 17 16

16

12

12

10

Percent

5 4

0 Missing

2 very easy

4 3

6 5

very difficult

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Ease of adaptability: Forestry in your nation Valid N (listwise)

489

Mean Statistic Std. Error 3.84

489

B85

.07

Std. Statistic 1.612

Variance Statistic 2.599

Figure 86. How easy would it be for tourism in your nation to adapt to climate change? 30

27

23 20

16

10 9

9

8

Percent

6

2

0 Missing

2 very easy

4 3

6 5

very difficult

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Ease of adaptability: Tourism in your nation Valid N (listwise)

508

Mean Statistic Std. Error 2.93

508

B86

.07

Std. Statistic 1.538

Variance Statistic 2.365

Figure 87. How easy would it be for manufacturing in your nation to adapt to climate change? 30

26

21

20

15 13 10

11

Percent

8

4 2

0 Missing

2 very easy

4

6

3

5

very difficult

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Ease of adaptability: Manufacturing in your nation Valid N (listwise)

485

Mean Statistic Std. Error 3.02

485

B87

.07

Std. Statistic 1.443

Variance Statistic 2.082

Figure 88. How much would you agree that future research efforts and funding should focus more on adaptation and less on detection.

30

20 19 16

17

14 11

10

11

Percent

6 5 0 Missing

2 very much

4

6

3

5

not at all

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic How much would you agree that future research efforts and funding should focus more on adaptation and less on detection Valid N (listwise)

523

Mean Statistic Std. Error

4.31

523

B88

.08

Std. Statistic

1.723

Variance Statistic

2.968

Figure 89. How much do you think the media influences the public perception of climate change? 60

54 50

40 37 30

20

Percent

10

5

0 Missing very much

2

3

4

5

not at all

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic How much do you think the media influences the public perception of climate change Valid N (listwise)

549

Mean Statistic Std. Error 1.56

549

B89

.03

Std. Statistic .763

Variance Statistic .583

Figure 90. To what extent do you think that the media provides the public with adequate information to understand the basics of climate change?

50

40 38

30

20 18 16

Percent

10

11

10

5 0 Missing

2

a great extent

4 3

6 5

not at all

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic To what extent do you think that the media provides the public with adequate information to understand the basics of climate change Valid N (listwise)

549

Mean Statistic Std. Error

5.00

549

B90

.06

Std. Statistic

1.424

Variance Statistic

2.027

Figure 91. The media provides too much coverage, about the right amount of coverage (middle of the scale) or too little coverage of the most current state of the art knowledge of the climate sciences.

40

35 30

24 20

16

15

Percent

10

4

4 0 Missing too little

2

3

4

5

6

too much

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Media coverage: The most current state of the art knowledge of the climate sciences Valid N (listwise)

538

Mean Statistic Std. Error 2.59

538

B91

.05

Std. Statistic 1.163

Variance Statistic 1.353

Figure 92. The media provides too much coverage, about the right amount of coverage (middle of the scale) or too little coverage of the likely effects of climate change on the society in which you live. 40

30 29

23 20

16 13

Percent

10 7 5

5

2

0 Missing too little

2

3

4

5

6

too much

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Media coverage: The likely effects of climate change on the society in which you live Valid N (listwise)

532

Mean Statistic Std. Error 3.01

532

B92

.06

Std. Statistic 1.472

Variance Statistic 2.168

Figure 93. The media provides too much coverage, about the right amount of coverage (middle of the scale) or too little coverage of the likely effects of climate change in other societies. 40

30 29

23 20

14 12

10

Percent

8 6

5 2

0 Missing too little

2

3

4

5

6

too much

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Media coverage: The likely effects of climate change in other societies Valid N (listwise)

527

Mean Statistic Std. Error 2.74

527

B93

.07

Std. Statistic 1.587

Variance Statistic 2.518

Figure 94. The media provides too much coverage, about the right amount of coverage (middle of the scale) or too little coverage of the conflicting findings or conclusions reached by climate scientists. 20 18

18

16 14

11 10 9

Percent

8

4

0 Missing too little

2

3

4

5

6

too much

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Media coverage: Conflicting findings or conclusions reached by climate scientists Valid N (listwise)

537

Mean Statistic Std. Error 3.62

537

B94

.09

Std. Statistic 1.989

Variance Statistic 3.955

Figure 95. The media provides too much coverage, about the right amount of coverage (middle of the scale) or too little coverage of the changes that would be necessary to adapt to climate change in their region. 40 37

30

20

21 19

13

Percent

10

6 2

0 Missing too little

2

3

4

5

6

too much

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Media coverage: The changes that would be necessary to adapt to climate change in their region Valid N (listwise)

525

Mean Statistic Std. Error

2.42

525

B95

.05

Std. Statistic

1.216

Variance Statistic

1.478

Figure 96. The media provides too much coverage, about the right amount of coverage (middle of the scale) or too little coverage of the worst case scenarios of climate change. 30

22

22

6

too much

20

15 12

Percent

10 10

10

2

3

6 4 0 Missing too little

4

5

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Media coverage: The worst case scenarios of climate change Valid N (listwise)

536

Mean Statistic Std. Error 4.78

536

B96

.08

Std. Statistic 1.879

Variance Statistic 3.532

Figure 97. The media provides too much coverage, about the right amount of coverage (middle of the scale) or too little coverage of the claims of skeptical scientists who dispute the IPCC consensus. 20

17

17

16

11

12

11

10

8

Percent

8

0 Missing too little

2

3

4

5

6

too much

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Media coverage: The claims of sceptical scientists who dispute the IPCC consensus Valid N (listwise)

516

Mean Statistic Std. Error 4.33

516

B97

.09

Std. Statistic 2.033

Variance Statistic 4.132

Figure 98. The media provides too much coverage, about the right amount of coverage (middle of the scale) or too little coverage of the possible costs of implementing the Kyoto Accords. 30

23 20 20

15 12 10 9 8

Percent

7 6

0 Missing too little

2

3

4

5

6

too much

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Media coverage: The possible costs of implementing the Kyoto Accords Valid N (listwise)

527

Mean Statistic Std. Error 3.42

527

B98

.08

Std. Statistic 1.832

Variance Statistic 3.357

Figure 99. The media provides too much coverage, about the right amount of coverage (middle of the scale) or too little coverage of the gains that might be made through energy efficiency. 40 37

30 29

20

14

Percent

10

10

4

3

0 Missing too little

2

3

4

5

2 6

too much

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Media coverage: The gains that might be made through energy efficiency Valid N (listwise)

538

Mean Statistic Std. Error 2.25

538

B99

.05

Std. Statistic 1.239

Variance Statistic 1.535

Figure 100. The media provides too much coverage, about the right amount of coverage (middle of the scale) or too little coverage of the personal differences among claimsmakers who differ about the reality of climate change. 30

20 20 18

15 13 11

10

10

Percent

9

5

0 Missing too little

2

3

4

5

6

too much

Descriptive Statistics N Statistic Media coverage: Personal differences among claims-makers who differ about the reality of climate change Valid N (listwise)

458

Mean Statistic Std. Error

3.58

458

B100

.08

Std. Statistic

1.799

Variance Statistic

3.238