Climate Risk Management in Finnish Development Cooperation Ethiopia Adapting to Climate Change Climate Screening Assessment Final report 2009

Mikko Halonen, Jussi Nikula, Alina Pathan, Pasi Rinne Gaia Consulting Oy

Table of Contents Abbreviations ....................................................................................................3 Executive summary (in Finnish) .........................................................................4 1

Introduction................................................................................................6 1.1 Project background ......................................................................................................6 1.2 Finnish development cooperation in Ethiopia and climate change.............................7 1.3 Objectives.....................................................................................................................8 1.4 Approach and implementation ....................................................................................8

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Climate change in Ethiopia..........................................................................12 2.1 Climate patterns and climate variability ......................................................................12 2.2 Climate change projections for Ethiopia in the 21st century........................................16

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Climate vulnerability and adaptation priorities in Ethiopia..........................20 3.1 Vulnerability to climate variability and change............................................................20 3.2 National adaptation priorities and capacity needs ......................................................21 3.3 Climate mainstreaming by international development cooperation partners............24

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Preliminary climate screening of selected development cooperation projects in Ethiopia...................................................................................................27 4.1 Overview of the selected projects and screening process...........................................27 4.2 Rural Water Supply and Environmental Programme in Amhara Region (RWSEP) ......29 4.3 Rural Water supply, Sanitation and Hygiene programme in Benishangul Gumuz region (FinnWASH BG)...................................................................................................................32 4.4 Technical Assistance to the Watershed Monitoring and Evaluation (WME) Component of the Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Development Project (TBIWRDP)............36

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Conclusions and recommendations ............................................................40

Appendix ...........................................................................................................44 Annex I. Ethiopia Climate Change Implications for Finland ...............................................44 Annex II. Activities supported by the Government of Finland in the water sector ...........58 Annex III. Climate risk screening & mainstreaming approaches & tools ...........................59 Annex IV. List of organizations/persons consulted during the assignment .......................60

References ........................................................................................................62

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Abbreviations ACPC African Climate Policy Centre AfDB African Development Bank CDF Community Development Fund DFID Department for International Development ENTRO Support to Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office FinnWASH Rural water supply, Sanitation and Hygiene programme GTZ German Technical Cooperation IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LDC Least Developed Countries LULUCF Land use, land-use change and forestry M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MIS Management Information System MoFa Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NGO Non-Government Organisation PASDEP Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty REDD/REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation RWSEP Rural Water Supply and Environmental Programme in Amhara Region TBIWRDP Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Development Project UAP Universal Action Plan UNDAF United Nations Development Assistance Framework UNDP United Nations UNMEE United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea WME Watershed Monitoring and Evaluation

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Executive summary (in Finnish) Ilmastonmuutos muodostaa erään 2000-luvun keskeisimmistä kehityshaasteista. Se miten onnistumme vastaamaan tähän haasteeseen vaikuttaa ratkaisevasti tulevaisuuden kehityspolkuihin eri puolilla maapalloa. Käytännössä tämä tulee merkitsemään merkittäviä panostuksia niin ilmastonmuutoksen hillintään kuin sopeutumiseen. Suomen kehityspolitiikan ensisijaisina tavoitteina on köyhyyden poistaminen, ympäristöllisesti kestävän kehityksen toteuttaminen ja maailmanlaajuisen kumppanuuden luominen. Tavoitteiden saavuttaminen tulee edellyttämään ilmastohaasteen systemaattista ja läpileikkaavaa huomioimista kaikessa kehityspoliittisessa toiminnassa. Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset tulevat koettelemaan erityisesti köyhimpiä kehitysmaita, joilla on usein jo lähtökohdiltaan heikot valmiudet sopeutua uusiin haasteisiin. Etiopian on yksi maailman köyhimmistä maista ja sen arvioidaan olevan yksi ilmastonmuutoksen suurimmista kärsijöistä, jota ilmaston voimakas luontainen vaihtelu sekä yhä hankalammat kuivuudet ja tulvat vuoroin koettelevat. Etiopiassa noin 85 % väestöstä saa päivittäisen elantonsa maataloudesta, josta valtaosa on perinteisin menetelmin harjoitettua pienmaataloutta ja joka on täysin riippuvaista sadannasta. Suomen kehitysyhteistyö Etiopiassa fokusoituu sektoreille (vesi, koulutus, maankäyttö), jotka monin tavoin ovat kehitys- ja ilmastonmuutoshaasteiden leikkauspisteessä. Tästä syystä Suomella on erityinen mahdollisuus sekä velvollisuus varmistaa, että kaikki toteuttamamme yhteistyöhankkeet Etiopiassa tukevat samanaikaisesti niin köyhyyden vähentämisen ja kestävän kasvun päämääriä kuin ilmastotavoitteita. Pyrkien edistämään ilmastonäkökulman systemaattista huomioimista Suomen kehitysyhteistyössä sekä vahvistamaan Etiopian sopeutumiskykyä, tässä hankkeessa tarkasteltiin Etiopian kansallista sopeutumiskapasiteettia sekä erityisesti kolmea Suomen rahoittamaa kehitysyhteistyöhanketta ilmastonäkökulmasta. Vesisektoriin kohdistuneiden hankkeiden tarkastelu ”ilmastolinssin” läpi osoitti, että ilmastonmuutos ei muodosta merkittävää riskiä kyseisten hankkeiden tavoitteiden saavuttamiselle Tana-Belesin valuma-alueella. Sen sijaan useat hankkeiden komponentit esim. vesihuollon, sanitaation, vesivarojen kestävän hallinnan tai monitoroinnin lisäksi, voivat samanaikaisesti vahvistaa paikallisten ihmisten sopeutumiskykyä ja luovat parempia edellytyksiä alueellisen ja kansallisen tason sopeutumista koskevalle päätöksenteolle. Tarkastelun perusteella voitiin myös tunnistaa keinoja parantaa ilmastonäkökulman huomioimista niin kehitysyhteistyön suunnittelussa, hankevalmistelussa kuin jo käynnissä olevien hankkeiden toteuttamisessa.

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Selvityksen havaintojen ja johtopäätösten perusteella nousevat esiin seuraavat keskeiset suositukset jatkotoimenpiteille:


Etiopian kansallisen ilmastopolitiikan vahvistamista ja jalkauttamista pitää tukea. Suomen tulisi myös aktiivisesti edistää kansainvälisten toimijoiden tehokkaampaa ja läpinäkyvämpää koordinaatiota ilmastoon liittyvässä yhteistyössä Etiopiassa.




Suomen kehitysyhteistyön fokusoituminen vesisektoriin, koulutukseen sekä maankäytön hallintaan tarjoaa erinomaisen mahdollisuuden tukea Etiopiaa ilmastohaasteidensa edessä ja kyseisillä sektoreilla toteutettavien hankkeiden sopeutumista ja hillintää vahvistavat potentiaalit tulee hyödyntää täysimääräisesti.




Suomen tulee laatia kokonaisvaltainen lähestymistapa sekä kehittää tarvittavat työkalut ilmastonäkökulman systemaattiseksi huomioimiseksi kaikessa Suomen kehitysyhteistyössä.

Johtopäätöksistä ja ilmastonäkökulman huomioimisesta saaduista kokemuksista tulisi aktiivisesti jakaa tietoa ja keskustella Etiopialaisten sekä kansainvälisten toimijoiden kanssa. Hankkeen lopputulokset luovat hyvät lähtökohdat Suomelle välittömästi jatkaa ilmastonäkökulman huomioimista kehitysyhteistyössään myös muissa partnerimaissaan.

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1 Introduction 1.1 Project background Climate change is one of the central challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. The way in which we will address it will have profound implications for human development. Despite international efforts to curb the emissions of greenhouse gases, it is clear that during the forthcoming decades all societies will have to adapt to the on-going changes caused by climate change. One of the central objectives of Finnish Development Cooperation is to enhance sustainable development and growth in partner countries, which necessarily implies systematically integrating climate mitigation and adaptation into all planning, implementation and monitoring activities. Assessing climate risks and identifying optimal adaptation measures in development cooperation will require particular attention as i) climate research indicates clearly that the developing countries in general and the least developed countries (LDCs) such as Ethiopia in particular are most vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate variability and change, ii) LDCs, small vulnerable economies (SVE) and small island developing states (SIDS) have currently very limited resources to adapt, and iii) the public sector will have a critical role in particular related to adaptation with regards to catalyzing funding, capacity building and technology transfer in the immediate future. Taking note of lessons learned from international forerunners on reviewing their development cooperation through a “climate lens”1 as well as the extensive knowledge base on climate change adaptation that has been elaborated in Finland during past few years2, Finland has a responsibility and an exceptional opportunity to enhance and strengthen the adaptive capacity of its development cooperation partner countries as well as draw important lessons learned for further climate adaptation measures internationally and in Finland.

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E.g. climate screening and/or mainstreaming efforts and approaches by DFID, DANIDA, DGIS, GTZ, SDC, WB, ADB, see Annex III 2 Finnish research programmes (such as FINADAPT, ISTO-The national Climate Change Adaptation Research Programme) have catalyzed extensive knowledge about climate adaptation and contributed to developing tools for integrating the latest climate science results into concrete decision making on national and local levels.

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1.2 Finnish development cooperation in Ethiopia and climate change Finnish development cooperation with Ethiopia is based on the priorities identified in the Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty (PASDEP). Through its activities, Finland aims to support Ethiopia to address some of its key sustainable development and poverty challenges related to climate variability, rapid population growth, environmental degradation and societal instability. In particular, Finnish cooperation efforts have focused on the education and water sectors. Within the education sector, cooperation is expected to continue on education support for special / vulnerable groups (groups with special needs) with a focus on the quality of education. With regards to the water sector, project based cooperation with the overall objective of enhancing sustainable management of water resources has been implemented in the states of Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuz. As part of the Eastern-Nile regional cooperation, together with the Government of Ethiopia, Support to Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) and the World Bank, Finland has also prepared a project for integrated watershed management in the Tana-Beles sub-basin. As highlighted in the Ethiopian National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)3, current climate variability is already imposing a significant challenge to Ethiopia by affecting food security, water and energy supply, poverty reduction and sustainable development efforts, as well as by causing natural resource degradation and natural disasters. The extremely high dependence on rain fed agriculture4 and generally under-development of water resources, only accentuate the urgency of systematic adaptation and sustainable growth in Ethiopia. E.g. the droughts of the 1972/73, 1984 and 2002/03 as well as the floods in 2006 caused substantial human life and property loss in many parts of the country, and provide an indication of events that are likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change in the future. Climate change has been generally identified as a threat to development goals, in particular due to Ethiopia’s low adaptive capacity and high climate sensitivity of its socio-economic systems. Extensive efforts are rapidly required to prevent continued climate variability and change undermining efforts to reach the national development objectives. It is also important to note that good adaptation can reduce present and future losses from climate

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Climate change national adaptation progranmme of action (NAPA) of Ethiopia, 2007. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is a mechanism within the UNFCCC, designed to help the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) including Ethiopia to identify their priority adaptation needs to climate change and to communicate these needs to the Conference of Parties (COP) of the UNFCCC and other concerned bodies. 4 Agricultural production forms the basis of the Ethiopian economy and some 85% of the population practically lives on agriculture.

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variability and change as well as be synergistic with other development objectives (be it mitigation, poverty reduction, disaster risk reduction and overall improved livelihood etc.). The international partners can play a valuable role in assisting Ethiopia in these efforts.5

1.3 Objectives The overall objective of the study was to contribute to the mainstreaming of climate change into Finnish development cooperation and find ways to strengthen the capacities to adapt to climate variability and change in Ethiopia. The project strengthens Finnish climate risk and adaptation know-how and its inclusion as an integral part in development cooperation. It aims to support systematic mainstreaming of climate considerations into Finnish country/sector programmes and climate proofing of selected development cooperation projects in Ethiopia. Through the consultative working process and its recommendations the study also aims to support further climate adaptation capacity building efforts in Ethiopia. In addition to the core objectives described above, the study examines potential direct and/or indirect implications of climate change in Ethiopia from the perspective of the Finnish society in Annex 16.

1.4 Approach and implementation This study includes an assessment of climate risks and vulnerability in Ethiopia. While the resources allocated for this study have not allowed a detailed risk assessment on country, sector and project levels, it presents a preliminary review on how climate risks7 are taken into account in Finnish development cooperation in Ethiopia, and particularly in the water sector. The study suggests approaches, concrete tools and potential measures how to strengthen adaptation8 measures and climate proofing Finnish development cooperation in

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As also noted in the Ethiopian NAPA, adaptation is neither a one-off intervention nor a stand-alone activity. It is rather a process that needs to be incorporated in the overall development planning, including the design and implementation of projects and programs across relevant sectors. 6 In addition to Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland (MoFa) funding, the study is co-funded by the Finnish National Climate Change Adaptation Research Programme (ISTO, coordinated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry) and contributes in parallel to the Finnish climate adaptation strategy process. 7 The risks can be direct risks to ODA programmes and deliverables, e.g. due to extreme weather events or lack of climate proofing in design phase. The risks can cause underperformance e.g. due to changes in rainfall patterns or health impacts. The risks may also arise from direct/indirect impacts on target population, which e.g. may have had to migrate due to losses of livelihood. See e.g. Danida Climate change screening of Danish development cooperation in Kenya, 2007. 8 The survey focuses on adaptation, taking note of an on-going UNDP assessment of mitigation and CDM potential in Ethiopia. When identifying and assessing potential adaptation measures, potential linkages and synergistic measures e.g. with disaster risk reduction (DRR) and mitigation have been noted.

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Ethiopia. As noted above, the climate screening has been complemented by a preliminary assessment of potential direct and/or indirect implications of climate change in Ethiopia for Finland.9 This pilot assessment has looked at Finnish development cooperation and climate adaptation needs in Ethiopia on three complementary levels, i.e. country level, sector level and programme/project level. The preliminary climate screening10 focused on the water sector portfolio, which forms a cornerstone of Finnish development cooperation with Ethiopia. Within the water sector, three programmes/projects have been reviewed, providing examples of a variety of projects in different phases of their project cycle. Given the overall objectives of the study as well as the pilot nature of this screening exercise, the “combined approach” used in this study has drawn on experiences and lessons learned from a series of climate screening forerunner countries and organizations (in particular ORCHID - Opportunities and Risks of Climate Change and Disasters, DANIDA climate change screening matrixes and CRiSTAL/Community-based Risk Screening – Adaptation and Livelihoods, see Annex III). It also makes use of the climate risk management methods and experiences (such as the Climate-CIVA11 method) elaborated as part of the Finnish national climate research adaptation programme 12 . This “combined approach” has allowed consideration of climate risks widely from a strategic point of view as well as from a livelihoods point of view. The “combined approach” used in this study is presented in figure 1 below. The objective has been to integrate risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation into the development programme rather than as stand-alone climate adaptation (or mitigation) projects. This could be achieved in a manner that acknowledges latest climate science, communicates climate risks in an easily understandable manner to all relevant stakeholders, allows integrating climate risk management and reduces any climate vulnerability in a manner that does not overstretch programme/project staff resources and supports reaching of specific project objectives and development objectives at large.

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See Annex I. These potential implications may be reflected e.g. through environment and conflict linkages, increased need for humanitarian assistance and disaster risk reduction, increased migration and immigration, potential repercussions through trade etc. This project component will serve more broadly the ISTO research programme and make use of preliminary scoping activities conducted within it. See ISTO project IMPLIFIN: an investigation of the international impacts of climate change having potential implications for Finland, conducted by the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Finland. 10 The climate change screening will include an assessment of the risks of climate change in achieving the outcomes of the Finnish development programmes and identification of opportunities for reduced vulnerability. It will provide a preliminary screening of selected on-going activities and guidance for applying a “climate lens” on planned and forthcoming activities. 11 The Climate-CIVA method (Climate Induced Vulnerability Assessment, in Finnish Ilmasto-KIHA), developed within the Finnish adaptation research programme (ISTO), is a decision-making tool that allows systematic risk mapping, impact assessment and identification of priority adaptation solutions. 12 The approach can also provide a screening for disaster risks reduction especially in some parts of Ethiopia where disasters are predominantly associated with droughts and floods.

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Figure 1. Overall (combined) approach

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The application of the “climate lens” (see Box 1) builds on existing data and knowledge about climate variability and projected change in Ethiopia, which are presented in chapter 2. With regards to projected climate change, the focus of the scenario analysis is on short- to mid-term, i.e. max 2030-2050, taking note of the high vulnerability of the Ethiopian society to current climate variability and extremes as well as the need to identify concrete adaptation measures in Finnish development cooperation that can reduce the immediate climate risks and be flexibly stepped-up (so called low-regrets/no-regrets adaptation measures) in view of continued climate change.

Box. 1. The “Climate lens” means applying a set of questions and subsequent analyses in order to understand and improve a measure’s climate adaptation fitness. The questions are following 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

the extent to which a measure (strategy, policy, plan or programme) could be vulnerable to risks arising from climate variability and change the extent to which climate change risks have been taken into consideration in the course of the formulation of this measure the extent to which measure activities could inadvertently increase vulnerability to climate-related hazards the extent to which measure activities could contribute to increasing the ability of poor people to cope with and adapt to climate-related hazards where entry points exist to alter interventions to address the above

See e.g. OCED Policy Guidance on Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Cooperation (2009) and ORCHID (Piloting Climate Risk Screening in DFID Bangladesh (2007).

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The sustainable livelihoods aspects used in this assessment draw on lessons learned from Crick & Dougherty (2006) as well as the CRiSTAL and ORCHID approaches (see references and Annex III).

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Chapter 3 presents a strategic overview of the national framework with regards to climate vulnerability and adaptation priorities. It also presents on-going activities by international partners to strengthen adaptive capacity in Ethiopia. This initial climate screening focused on selected Finnish development cooperation projects in the water sector, as presented in chapter 4. It provides a preliminary review of risk that might be posed to the projects due to climate change or variability and how these risks have been taken into account during project planning. It also reports whether the projects have the potential to contribute to livelihoods improvements (be it natural, physical, financial, human and/or social resources)14 that simultaneously can strengthen the climate adaptive capacity of local communities. The key findings of the study and conclusions, with priority areas for follow-up measures are presented in chapter 5. The study has been conducted by the experts of Gaia Consulting Ltd in May-August 2009. The project included a preparatory phase during which the approach, target country and sector was identified with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland; desk study during which extensive volumes of literature was studied; mission to Addis Ababa which included tens of meetings with relevant national and international partners as well as discussions with representatives of the selected development cooperation projects, and a final reporting phase.15

14 The following definitions for livelihoods assets are used: i) Natural resources: the natural resource stock upon which people rely both directly (i.e. for income or medicine) or indirectly (i.e. flood control, protection from storms), ii) Physical resources: the basic infrastructure and productive capital for transport, buildings, water management, energy and communications, iii) Financial resources: the stocks and flows of money that allow people to achieve their livelihood objectives, iv) Human resources: the skills, knowledge, capacity and good health important to the pursuit of livelihoods, and v) Social resources: the formal and informal social relationships and institutions from which people draw in pursuit of their livelihoods. See e.g. CRiSTAL: Community-based Risk Screening – Adaptation and Livelihoods 15 Assessment team: Mikko Halonen, Pasi Rinne, Jussi Nikula and Alina Pathan. During a field mission in June 2009 several key stakeholders were met in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (see Annex IV). Due to time constraints key regional and local level project stakeholders (project coordinators and team leaders for selected development projects in the water sector) on the regional level were consulted on the phone.

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2 Climate change in Ethiopia 2.1 Climate patterns and climate variability Corresponding to the country’s extensive geographical diversity and considerable size in the African Horn16, the Ethiopian climate also presents a wide variety differing features. While located at latitudes of 4 to 15°N, Ethiopia’s climate in the south-eastern and north-eastern lowland regions is typically tropical but much cooler in the large central highland regions of the country. The climate of the country, including rainfall is mainly driven by the seasonal migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and strongly influenced by the diverse topography of the country.

Figure 2. Daily mean annual temperature in °C (left) and Cumulative mean annual rainfall in mm 17 (right)

With regards to temperature, mean annual temperatures in Ethiopia vary greatly, from ca. 10°C over the highlands in the north-west, central and south-east parts of the country to about 35°C in a small zone in the north-east of the country (see Figure 2). In general, the

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With a land area of about 1.12 million km2, Ethiopia shares boundaries to the east and southeast with Djibouti and Somalia, to the north with Eritrea, to the south with Kenya, and to the west with the Sudan. 17 Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE). 2001. Initial National Communication of Ethiopia to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Ministry of Water Resources, National Meteorological Services Agency. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

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hottest period in the year is from March to May, while the lowest annual minimum temperatures occur over the highlands between the months of November and January.18 Likewise, the rainfall patterns and quantities vary greatly within Ethiopia, with mean annual rainfall varying from ca 2000mm in some areas in the southwest to less than 250mm over the Afar lowlands in the northeast and Ogaden in the southeast. As indicated in the figure 2 rainfall decreases northwards and eastwards from the high rainfall pocket areas in the Southwest. Unlike most areas in the tropics, which experience one wet season, in Ethiopia three distinct seasons can be defined. Most of Ethiopia experiences one main wet season (called ‘Kiremt’) from mid-June to mid-September, with rainfall of up to 350mm per month in the wettest regions.19 Parts of northern and central Ethiopia also have a secondary wet season of sporadic, and considerably lesser, rainfall from February to May (called the ‘Belg’). The southern regions of Ethiopia experience two distinct wet seasons which occur as the ITCZ passes through this more southern position The March to May ‘Belg’ season is the main rainfall season yielding 100-200mm per month, followed by a lesser rainfall season in October to December called ‘Bega’ (around 100mm per month). The eastern most corner of Ethiopia receives very little rainfall at any time of year.20 During the past decades a noticeable ~1 degree increase in mean annual temperature can be noted.21 The strong inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in Ethiopia’s rainfall makes it difficult to detect long-term trends. There is not a statistically significant trend in observed mean rainfall in any season in Ethiopia between 1960 and 2006 (trend analysis of annual rainfall shows that rainfall has remained more or less constant when averaged over the whole country, see figure 3 below). There are insufficient daily rainfall records available to identify trends in daily rainfall variability.22

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Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE). 2001. The main rainy season accounts for about 70% of total annual rainfall, with this proportion varying with latitude: it ranges from about 60% in the south-west (at Gore) to 78% at Gondr, north of Lake Tana (Conway, 2000). 20 Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of water resources, National Meteorological Agency, 2007 19

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See e.g. Conway, D et al (2007) noting a ~0.5 degree increase since the early 1960s, UNDP (2008) noting a mean annual temperature increase by 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006.

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UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles, Ethiopia (2008).

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Figure 3. Year to Year Variability of Annual Rainfall and trend over Ethiopia (in Normalized Deviation). Source NAPA

While trend analysis of annual rainfall shows that average annual rainfall remained fairly constant in the second half of the 20th century when averaged over the whole country, some regional longer-term trends can be distinguished (see figure 4 below), indicating a declining trend in the northern and south western parts of Ethiopia and increasing trend in central Ethiopia.23 On shorter term both upward and downward trends can be indentified in different parts of the country, depending strongly on the specific region that is being studied and in particular the period of time that is covered.24

Figure 4. Inter-annual variability of annual rainfall over Ethiopia (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE), 2001).

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A study by Verdin et al (2005) which looked at seasonal trends in rainfall found that, nationally, the Kremt rains have been fairly consistent since the 1960s but that the Belg rains have been decreasing consistently since 1996. Verdin et al state that the decrease in the Belg rains may be part of a larger set of climate changes in the Indian Ocean basin. 24 Multiple sources of evidence converge on a post-1997 tendency towards lower rainfall, especially during the Belg (March-May) season. This finding appears to hold for many parts of eastern Africa. Source: Funk et al. (2005).

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Regarding experienced climate variability and in particular extremes, major droughts and floods have hit Ethiopia throughout its history (see figures 5 and 6 below).

Figure 5. Flood hazard frequency in Ethiopia during past 30 years.

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For example, the years 1961, 1964, 1967, 1977 and 1996 and 2006 were very wet, while the years 1962, 1965 and 1984 and 2002 years were extremely dry. It is good to note, that e.g. floods do not only occur during the wet season, as widespread flooding occurred across Ethiopia during the October to February dry season of 1997/98.26

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Mathewos Hunde Early Warning and Response Directorate, DMFSS, MoARD. January 15, 2008. Presentation “Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture” at the first Ethiopian National Climate Change Conference, January 15, 2009 UNECA Conference Center . Addis Ababa 26 Considered the wettest dry season on record (Conway, 2000).

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Figure 6. Drought hazard frequency in Ethiopia during past 30 years.

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Analysis of currently available data do not yet show any marked longer-term trends in rainfall intensity and climate extremes despite commonly expressed concerns by most stakeholders in Ethiopia. 28 However, recent studies indicate an increasing amount of woredas29 being affected by droughts and/or floods during the past years.30 Taking note of the climatic risks associated in particular with extreme events and intense rainfall, it is of vital importance to continue analysing in more detail potential changes in extreme events trends in different parts of Ethiopia.

2.2 Climate change projections for Ethiopia in the 21st century Regarding future climate change implications for Ethiopia, climate models indicate that temperatures will increase in the future, although the extent of the temperature increase varies significantly between different models. Results from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, looking at regional climate projections,

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Mathewos Hunde Early Warning and Response Directorate, DMFSS, MoARD. January 15, 2008. Presentation “Climate Change and Ethiopian Agriculture” at the first Ethiopian National Climate Change Conference, January 15, 2009 UNECA Conference Center . Addis Ababa 28 During the expert mission in June 2009, national and regional authorities communicated a common understanding of increased frequency of extreme events during the past 5-10 years. However, solid baseline information on several other climatic parameters (such us e.g. heat waves, cold days/nights, storms, wild fires, etc) is lacking. 29 Administrative entity in Ethiopia (equivalent to a district). 30 Mathewos Hunde Early Warning and Response Directorate, DMFSS, MoARD. January 15, 2008.

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notes that warming in Africa is very likely to be larger than the global annual mean warming throughout the continent and in all seasons, with drier subtropical regions warming more than the moister tropics. In recent scenario work conducted for Ethiopia for the period 2040-2069 temperatures are projected to increase between 1°C and 3°C. For the period 2070-2099 the scenarios and models suggest temperatures increases of 2°C to 4°C, with the possibility that the increase may be as high as 6°C (see figure 7).

Figure 7. Annual mean temperature anomaly - trend in annual temperature for the recent past and projected future (values shown are anomalies, relative to the 1970-1999 mean Climate). Black curve show the mean of observed data from 1960 to 2006, brown curve show the median (solid line) and range (shading) of model simulations of recent climate across an ensemble of 15 models. Colored lines from 2006 onwards show the median (solid line) and range (shading) of the ensemble projections of climate under three emissions scenarios. Colored bars on the right-hand side of the projections summarize the range of mean 2090-2100 climates simulated by the 15 models for each emissions scenario (source UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles, Ethiopia)

These projections are rather similar to modelling results that served the elaboration of the NAPA, indicating warming in all regions in Ethiopia during all seasons in the future (figure 8). Another recent emission scenario exercise, which produced averaged results for five geographical regions of Ethiopia: Central, East, North, Southwest and the whole of Ethiopia, projects annual warming for the whole of Ethiopia by the 2050s of 2.2°C with a range of 1.4°C – 2.9°C and the regional differences in warming relatively modest – within tenths of a degree centigrade.31 The temperature increase, which can be projected with rather high confidence, can be expected to also increase the frequency of other, directly temperature bound events, such as the frequency of hot days and nights as well as heat waves. It is important to note that higher temperatures will probably also increase the rates of evaporation and, assuming other influences remain unchanged, increase surface water evaporation and affect soil moisture balances.

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Looking at a total of 18 Global Climate Models, analyzed with two IPCC SRES-A2 and B1 emissions scenarios. Conway, D et al (2007).

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Figure 8. Composite (average of 19 Global Climate Models/GCMs) change in temperature (oC) relative to 1961-1990 normal for A1B emission scenario. Source NAPA.

With regards to changes in precipitation there is likely to be an increase in annual mean rainfall in Eastern Africa. 32 However, in comparison to temperature, rainfall projections for Ethiopia are a lot less certain. While showing a tendency for slightly wetter conditions in the future (figure 9, providing one projection from NAPA), both increases and decreases in rainfall are predicted by the different models and scenarios, with considerable regional and seasonal differences. Figure 9. One projection for future change in annual rainfall. Composite percentage change (%) in rainfall relative to 1961-1990 normal for A1B emission scenario. Source NAPA.

The considerable regional and seasonal differences between climate model simulations of future rainfall conditions warrants caution in interpreting the results. The usage of a range of scenarios to represent the uncertainty in future climate change impacts has been identified as one useful option to deal with these uncertainties in adaptation decision making. 33 The wide range of potential rainfall changes (regionally and seasonally) is presented in the projections is highlighted in the diversity of results in different scenario work.34

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IPCC fourth assessment report, 2007. Uncertainties in rainfall projection are partly explained by: i) difficulties of GCMs to reproduce the mechanisms responsible for precipitation, ii) model limitations to simulate the different teleconnections and feedback mechanisms, which are responsible for rainfall variability in Africa, and iii) other factors that complicate African climatology (e.g. at present there are no clear indications of future behaviour in El Niño, associated with dry wet seasons in Ethiopia, and the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is sometimes associated with flood events during October to December, and their possible influence on Ethiopian climate. Conway, D et al (2007). In general Model simulations show wide disagreements in projected changes in the amplitude of future El Niño events (Christensen et al., 2007). East Africa’s seasonal rainfall can be strongly influenced by ENSO, and this contributes to uncertainty in climate projections, particularly in the future inter-annual variability, for this region. 34 See e.g. Conway, D et al (2007). 33

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Some models also indicate an increase in the proportion of total rainfall that falls in ‘heavy’ events, with annual changes ranging from -1 to +18%. The largest increases are projected for the periods July-September and October-December. These models are broadly consistent in indicating increases in the magnitude of 1- and 5-day rainfall maxima. The annual increases arise largely due to increases in October-December. The changes in maxima in 1-day events in October-December range from 0 to +29mm and -4 to +40mm in 5-day events.35 The overall uncertainty about the future precipitation patterns, changes in both amount and timing of rainfall in different parts of Ethiopia will exacerbate the already considerable challenges with high rainfall variability. Taking note of all these projected trends, including a potential increase in climate extremes, Ethiopia will have to find ways to adapt to a highly unpredictable climate. Some recent studies of river basins in Eastern Africa, including Ethiopia show a tendency for higher flows due to higher rainfall, i.e. increases in rainfall big enough to offset greater losses due to evaporation.36 While flood characteristic have not been well studied it is very likely that flood frequency and magnitude will increase under such conditions. While temperature increase can be projected with a rather high confidence many of the other climatic parameters remain uncertain, with considerable regional and seasonal variations to be expected for Ethiopia. The national response to the already experienced changes, as well as the longer-term adaptation strategy must be able to propose a wide set of solid climate adaptation measures, that can cope with a wide range of climatic patterns and flexibly stepped-up where and whenever required.

35 36

UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles, Ethiopia (2008). Conway, D et al (2007).

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3 Climate vulnerability and adaptation priorities in Ethiopia 3.1 Vulnerability to climate variability and change Ethiopia is exceptionally vulnerable37 to climate variability and weather extremes such as droughts, floods, heavy rains, frost and heat waves. While the historical social and economic impacts of climatic hazards in Ethiopia have not been well documented, the existing records on major droughts and floods (see chapter 2) give a clear indication of the overall high climate vulnerability of the country. These recurrent extreme weather events have caused huge loss of lives and property, resulted in migration of people and disrupted livelihoods in different parts of Ethiopia. Looking at the already experienced climate variability as well as projected climate change, a multitude of major adverse impacts has been identified, including: -

food insecurity arising from occurrences of droughts and floods; outbreak of diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, water borne diseases (such as cholera, dysentery) associated with floods and respiratory diseases associated with droughts; land degradation due to heavy rainfall; damage to communication, road and other infrastructure by floods; shifts in species distributions, increased evaporation and losses of wetlands due to temperature increase and changes in rainfall patterns; disruptions in energy production due to changes in rainfall patterns

Obviously many of the impacts are driven simultaneously by other factors (e.g. land degradation by deforestation, low agricultural productivity, lacking land ownership frameworks, etc) but the climate change induces a critical additional stress on already vulnerable livelihoods in many parts in Ethiopia. The very high dependence on rain fed agriculture, which is very sensitive to climate variability, is one of the main causes of vulnerability in Ethiopia. The overall underdevelopment of the water-sector is another critical component contributing to climate vulnerability. Despite the fact that Ethiopia has substantial water resources, these have neither been developed nor managed well, leaving populations vulnerable to the destructive impacts of water and climate variability, while not providing benefits from effectively harnessing the water and land resources. In addition, several other contributing factors can be identified, such as low health service coverage, high population growth rate, low overall economic development level, low adaptive capacity,

37

See e.g. Yohe, G., E. Malone, A. Brenkert, M. Schlesinger, H. Meij, X. Xing, and D. Lee. 2006. “A Synthetic Assessment of the Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change from the IPCC Perspective that Reflects Exposure and Adaptive Capacity.” Palisades, New York: CIESIN (Center for International Earth Science Information Network), Columbia University. http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/mva/ccv/

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inadequate road infrastructure in drought prone areas, weak institutions and lack of awareness, which all contribute to the exceptionally high level of climate vulnerability of the country. The vulnerability assessments that have so far been carried out point out agriculture, water and health as the most vulnerable sectors in Ethiopia. Smallholder rain-fed farmers and pastoralists belong to the most vulnerable population groups.38 However, currently only limited data is available on the impacts as well as the actual adaptive capacity of local communities in different parts of Ethiopia. It should be noted, that in some cases, in some areas, e.g. increased precipitation may also have some benign impacts. Ethiopia’s five-year PASDEP outlines development and growth aspirations until 2009/10. It also clearly suggests that many of the key sectors, which should contribute to reaching Ethiopian national development objectives, are highly sensitive to climate variability and/or change (see table 1). Table 1. The table indicates a broad categorization of the main sectors contained in the PASDEP and a review of these against climate change scenarios shows that the key climate-sensitive sectors in Ethiopia are agriculture and water resources. In addition, infrastructure and health are also highly sensitive.39

3.2 National adaptation priorities and capacity needs The Ethiopian NAPA40 (National Adaptation Programme of Action of Ethiopia, 2007) outlines the national adaptation framework and identifies a set of priority action, which should guide all adaptation efforts in Ethiopia. In addition to the NAPA, there are a number of other national policy initiatives, sectoral policies, programs and strategies that may directly or indirectly address climate change adaptation, including the PASDEP, Environmental policy of Ethiopia, Agriculture and Rural Development Policy and Strategy, Water resources Management Policy, Health Sector Development Policy and Program as well as the National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness.

38

The arid, semiarid and the dry sub-humid parts of the country are affected most by drought.. Conway, D et al (2007). 40 By summer 2009, some 40 LDCs (Least Developed Countries) have prepared their NAPAs, with a view to guide national priority adaptation measures and catalyze required funding. 39

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Table 2. List of NAPA priority projects.

In Ethiopia, traditional and contemporary coping mechanisms to climate variability and extremes include changes in cropping and planting practices, reduction of consumption levels, collection of wild foods, use of inter-household transfers and loans and increased petty commodity production. In addition, temporary and/or permanent migration, grain storage, sale of assets such as livestock and agricultural tools, mortgaging of land, credit from merchants and money lenders, use of early warning system, food appeal/aid have been part of traditional ways to secure livelihoods when adapting to climate variability. The NAPA identified in total some 40 projects, with the priority ones broadly focusing in areas of human and institutional capacity building, improving natural resource management through community participation, enhancing irrigation agriculture and water harvesting, strengthening early warning systems and awareness rising (see table 2). The NAPA stresses the importance of integrated management approaches, in watershed management and management of land use. The PASDEP also identifies several policy measures that should reduce climate vulnerability, e.g. related to the development of water resources, such as small-scale irrigation and water harvesting as well as on-farm diversification, which should help insulate the agriculture sector from droughts.

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However, in the near future, rain fed agriculture will continue to dominate Ethiopia’s agricultural production making it highly vulnerable for climate variability and change. To date, the NAPA has not succeeded in catalyzing concerted efforts and funding for implementing “adaptation specific” projects. While some donor funded activities, falling broadly under the umbrella of the NAPA priorities are currently on-going or planned, a clear nationally driven adaptation project portfolio is still waiting to get launched. Despite climate change having recently risen onto the Ethiopian national policy agenda41, several barriers remain, hampering the implementation of pro-adaptation measures on national, regional and local levels. A strong institutional ownership of climate policy (be it adaptation or mitigation) is still lacking in Ethiopia, with the absence of a clear home-base for climate policy and decisive leadership for policy coordination and cross-sectoral communication. The recent establishment of a “National Forum on Climate Change” may help to overcome some of these barriers, possibly leading to the elaboration of a national climate strategy. An active national climate forum could also serve to overcome other critical barriers related to low overall level of environmental awareness and lack of efficient climate outreach mechanisms to local communities. The currently available body of knowledge, despite significant gaps, could be used to consistently guide overall policy development and investments in Ethiopia towards lower climate vulnerability. This will imply among other things diversifying the energy production portfolio (currently relying almost exclusively on hydropower) and gradually increasing the share of non-agricultural livelihoods, i.e. creating employment in economic activities less directly dependant on climatic patterns. In the immediate future, specific data gaps must be filled and information services improved in order to protect Ethiopian communities from current climate variability and on-going climate change. This means filling gaps and knowledge about already experienced climate variability and changes and collecting information and understanding how local communities have so far been able to adapt. This means learning from past experiences and understanding that just coping is not enough but reducing poverty, catalyzing sustainable growth and improving livelihoods, in spite of changing climate. Taking note of Ethiopia’s extensive geographical diversity, considerable size and the climate diversity there is a need for country specific climate projections that would facilitate solid risk proofing of major regional and local level development and investment decisions.42 Due to lacking capacities and

41

The Ethiopian Prime Minister has in 2009 on several occasions, on national and international forums, expressed the need to address climate challenges, highlighting the responsibility of developed countries in urgent mitigation efforts as well as in assisting developing countries in adaptation. 42 The currently available climate change projections for Africa are very uncertain, especially concerning local and temporal details. For impact and vulnerability assessments, they can only provide an indication of the range of possible climate

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resources, no detailed national modelling and analyses are currently available.43 Unless Ethiopia manages to establish an adequate number of cadres that can spearhead climate change issues and help apply climate risk management tools in policy planning and decision making, implementation of adaptation will remain slow. Lessons learned from other countries point out the importance of ensuring that climate risk considerations and mainstreaming are particularly well rooted in national economic planning. Climate change related information is being produced in several activities by numerous stakeholders. The institutional capacity to manage and share the climate information is still weak. There is a need to effectively collate and coordinate these efforts as well as improve the utilization of the existing climate information. E.g. the Ministry of Water Resources is currently enhancing its capacity to model rainfall and predict flooding, which should improve preparedness for weather extremes and serve adaptation strengthening on local level. For this to happen, information sharing between sectors and different levels of authorities must continue to improve. While funding remains a critical challenge hampering implementation of adaptation specific projects, several on-going national development programmes and projects are actually strengthening the adaptive capacity of the Ethiopian society. The international community should support Ethiopia in its development efforts and ensure that all development cooperation also contributes to proadaptation (and pro-mitigation) progress in Ethiopia, in line with Ethiopian development objectives.

3.3 Climate mainstreaming by international development cooperation partners The development cooperation partners of Ethiopia (including international organizations, donor agencies, civil society organizations etc) are generally aware of the challenges posed by climate change to Ethiopian development aspirations. Climate change (adaptation and mitigation) features well e.g. in some of the World Bank funded activities such as the Sustainable Land Management (SLM) programme. UNDP has focused in its climate work on natural resource management and strengthening coping measures on local level, which directly contribute to reduced climate vulnerability. DFID has, among other activities, during several years provided support on climate data, climate risk identification and policy advice e.g. most recently on the economics of climate change through the advisory by Sir Nicolas Stern. Some international organizations, in cooperation with national partners, are investigating the potential for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). However, many barriers are still hampering

changes. Müller, Christoph: Climate change impact on Sub-Saharan Africa : an overview and analysis of scenarios and models / Christoph Müller. – Bonn : DIE, 2009 – (Discussion Paper / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik ; 3/2009). 43 See e.g. the Nile Basin Initiative and ENTRO (Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office) Climate Change Approach Paper, June 2009, which identifies a need for regional predictions that would allow analyzing e.g. potential climate change implications for river flows, sedimentation levels, hydropower generation, etc.

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the progress and to date no CDM projects have been registered in Ethiopia.44 Taking note that sustainable land and water management will among a.o. require considerable reforestation and recultivation activities, several stakeholders have expressed an interest to investigate the potential for gaining additional project finance through carbon markets. The climate negotiations at Copenhagen in December 2009 should provide guidance on LULUCF (Land use, land-use change and forestry) and REDD/REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) activities and increase the possibilities for carbon funding in Ethiopia. Getting access to this additional layer of funding will however, require further decisive institutional and capacity strengthening efforts. The German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) has a long history on sustainable development activities in Ethiopia and is very committed to various activities, in particular under the SLM. The GTZ funded activities will also include specific climate screening exercises as well as training activities during 2009. Several NGOs, including OXFAM have promoted the establishment of the National Climate Change Forum, which could serve as a driver for climate mainstreaming on national level. Within the Nile Basin Initiative, ENTRO (Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office) has taken an active approach to integrate climate risks into its work. Japan has also recently pledged significant support for a climate adaptation programme in Ethiopia. While there is clearly a great interest among the international partners to better integrate climate risks into their development cooperation, systematic climate mainstreaming is only in its initial phases in Ethiopia. Mirroring the lack of a strong national focal point for climate change, the efforts by the international community on climate mainstreaming have been rather patchy. A stronger coordination and sharing of climate information and lessons learned would accelerate the integration of climate risks into development cooperation. The on-going UNDAF (United Nations Development Assistance Framework, 2007-2011) mid-term review, to be completed in summer 2009, should highlight the need to strengthen climate change related actions under the UNDAF. This would provide a required incentive for more coordinated efforts by international partners. The Climate Information for Development in Africa initiative, ClimDev-Africa45 has received initial funding (incl. AfDB, DFID, Norway, Sweden, EU) for launching its activities, including funding to its policy arm i.e. the African Climate Policy Center (ACPC) to be established. Despite being in its startup phase, this regional initiative can be expected to provide important climate information and lessons learned from other African countries. It is important still to note, that despite evident data and capacity gaps in Ethiopia, the currently available data on climate change provides already a sufficient basis for national authorities 46 as well as international partners to initiate climate mainstreaming of their development efforts.

44

By 1 July only one project was in validation (reforestation project in the region Southern Nations with some 180 000 CERs expected by 2012). The UNEP Risoe CDM/JI Pipeline Overview, 1.7.2009. Prepared by J Fenhann: www.CDMpipeline.org 45 A joint initiative of the African Union Commission (AUC), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and the African Development Bank (AfDB) 46 The priorities of the national policies, sector strategies and programmes of the Ethiopian government are primarily targeted at promoting rural and agricultural development and poverty reduction. Consequently, climate change and adaptation issues are often treated indirectly in sector specific policies and programmes since climate impacts are considered as a sub-component of the overall development goal.

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As there is a need to ensure that all relevant development cooperation activities are climate proofed, it is also important to highlight that many of the on-going cooperation efforts covering e.g the management of water resources, land use management, institutional strengthening, are already contributing to strengthened climate adaptive capacity, as they improve local livelihoods and make them less vulnerable current climate variability. In many cases successful adaptation does not necessarily require totally new strategies and technologies developed specifically for adaptation. However, climate mainstreaming will require policy leadership and a climate sensitive planning approach & framework, which explicitly takes into account rising risks of climate variability and change and their implications for development projects and investment decisions.47 The climate sensitive planning approach also provides the basis to identify synergies between key development policy areas, including poverty reduction, food security, disaster prevention and management, climate adaptation and mitigation etc.

47

As noted in footnote 6, climatic shocks can pose a direct threat to investments from effects on infrastructure, indirect effects through diminished performance, and outright inappropriateness of investments in the face of climatic trends. Burton, I. and M. van Aalst (2004).

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4 Preliminary climate screening of selected development cooperation projects in Ethiopia 4.1 Overview of the selected projects and screening process While the previous chapters have provided a strategic overview of the national and sectoral level climate vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity (applying the “climate lens” on national and sectoral levels), this chapter focuses on an initial climate screening of selected Finnish development cooperation projects in Ethiopia. Finnish development cooperation in Ethiopia has a strong focus on the education and water sectors. Finland has already a long history of development cooperation in the water sector, which in many aspects is at the nexus of climate change and Ethiopian development challenges. Consequently, at the project level, the initial climate screening covers 3 development cooperation projects in the water sector funded or co-funded by the government of Finland. Selection of the projects for this initial climate screening was done in consultation with the representatives of the MoFa.48 Two of the selected projects focus on water supply and sanitation (and hygiene/environment) in local communities as well as on the communities’ ability to implement and maintain sustainable community managed water supply facilities. One of the selected projects has its focus on watershed monitoring and evaluation as a part of an integrated water resources development project. The selected projects are summarized in the following table (table 3). Table 3. Projects selected for preliminary climate screening. Project Timing and Phase

Notes

Rural Water Supply and July 2007 - June 2011 (5 years). Total € 11,3 m of which 9 Environmental Programme in Continuation from phases I-III. M from Finland Amhara Region, Phase IV (RWSEP) Phase IV is a phase-out phase. Rural Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene Programme in Benishangul Gumuz Region (FinnWASH BG) Technical Assistance to the Watershed Monitoring and Evaluation (WME) Component of the Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Development Project (TBIWRDP) in Ethiopia

48

Planning Phase April 2008 - June Total € 12,8 M of which 2009. Implementation Phase 11,4 M from Finland July 2009 - June 2013 (5 years) June 2009 - October 2013 (4 Implemented as a M&E years 4 months). component of TBIWRDP. Total grant from the Government of Finland € 1,5M (WME) + € 3,5M for TBIWRDP

The water sector portfolio, which is supported by the Finnish Government in Ethiopia, is presented in Annex II.

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The overall screening approach has been presented in chapter 1.4. The “climate lens” is applied for each of the reviewed projects below in chapters 4.2-4.4 with subchapters looking at different key questions through the “climate lens” (see Box 1). Climate data and projected climatic patterns, which have served as basis for the screening, are summarized in chapter 2. Building on a review and analysis of project documentation, the interviews and discussions with key project stakeholders (including team leaders, programme coordinators) form a central component of this screening exercise.49 This initial screening classifies the programmes into low – medium – high categories, based on identified climate risks to development effectiveness, where: - “low” refers to very limited risks for project outcomes potentially caused by climate variability and change - “medium”, refers to limited risks for project outcomes potentially caused by climate variability and change - “high” refers to potentially considerable risks for project outcomes caused by climate variability and change This initial classification should guide immediate further steps for any high risk projects (including indepth risk assessment) and flag out potential modifications and entry points for projects with medium risks. In addition, the screening approach contributes to a review of the potential of the selected development programmes to contribute to climate adaptive capacity (through strengthened livelihoods assets) in the programme areas.

49

See Annex IV, for full list of stakeholders consulted during the assignment, including key project stakeholders.

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Figure 10. Map of Ethiopia highlighting coarsely Benishangul-Gumuz Region in green, Amhara Region in blue grey, Lake Tana sub-basin in red and Beles sub-basin in yellow (map combined from FinnWASH BG project document p.4 and WME Annex 7 p. ii). Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuz regions are located in the Ethiopian plateau, in the central and partly in the northern Ethiopia. These regions are notably cooler than the more low lying regions. More detailed description about the regional climate conditions, which serves as the basis for assessing climate risks here, is presented in chapter 2.

The figure above depicts the map of Ethiopia highlighting coarsely the project areas (Figure 10). Amhara Region where the RWSEP project is implemented is highlighted in blue grey. The home of FinnWASH BG project, Benishangul-Gumuz Region, is highlighted in green. The two sub-basins where WME project functions is illustrated in red (Lake Tana sub-basin) and yellow (Beles sub-basin).

4.2 Rural Water Supply and Environmental Programme in Amhara Region (RWSEP) The overall (long term) objective of RWSEP Phase IV is “Capacity of communities to initiate, manage and implement their priority projects with support from woredas in Amhara Region and other regions in Ethiopia”. The purpose of Phase IV of RWSEP is “Institutionalised capacity (at all levels) to implement and maintain sustainable community managed water supply facilities with CDF funding”. Climate risks for project outcomes Project result achievement is based largely on institutional development in organizing water supply facilities. The technical facilities are however essential for delivering the expected services. The

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climate risks for the infrastructure and implementation (direct effect) are assessed here separately from the social, human resource and institutional risks (indirect effect). A priori, climate-induced direct risks for project outcomes are mostly related with extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods and heavy rains. These weather events could cause discontinued water supply by established systems due to i) lowered availability of water due to droughts or decreased precipitation in longer term, ii) temporary unavailability of (good quality) drinking water due to flooding of water systems (e.g. contamination of wells or other water sources due to surface water overflow), iii) destruction of water infrastructure due to floods. In the longer-term (20302050), continued temperature increase, projected to increase between 1°C and 3°C, could among other things pose risks to groundwater level, i.e. water scarcity risks at water points, in case rainfall patterns show a diminishing trend. The initial screening reveals that floods have during past years not posed a considerable risk to water points, as only one of the programme woredas (Fogera) has encountered minor problems due to floods. Droughts have neither caused major risks to project outcomes at the 14 programme woredas located at highlands areas50, with the programme water points of the programme launched already in 1994 showing a 95% level of functionality.51 While local stakeholders have reportedly noted in some locations a slight decline in groundwater level at water points, no systematic trend has so far been measured. With regards to other potential climate parameters (e.g. heat waves, cold days/nights, storms, hailstorms, forest and bush fires, etc) no risks to project outcomes have been noted, and solid climate data on potential longer term trends is lacking for most of these parameters. In addition to these risks on the technical water supply system, also project implementation (indirect effect) could in principle be hampered by climate factors, e.g. due to limited access to project areas caused heavy rains or floods. Also construction conditions of planned water infrastructure can be worsened for same reasons. However, these risks have been well managed through weather sensitive timing of project activities. Climate risks also include the possibility of reduced staff resources as well as reduced capacity of local communities to manage and operate water supply systems due to climate hardships (floods and droughts) targeting their livelihoods. Also the targeted private sector might suffer from climate change and variability. However, several project components directly support livelihoods improvements that strengthen local capacities to adapt to these climate challenges (see below Project elements supporting local adaptation), which pose low indirect risks to project outcomes. Prior climate considerations Natural calamites, such as droughts and floods, have been identified as risks to project implementation and outcomes in the project document. However, no further elaboration on these

50 51

Drought related problems to functionality have occasionally been only noted in one of the woredas, i.e. East Estie. No problems related to surface water runoff have been reported.

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risks or coping measures has been provided, as it is noted that these risks are “beyond the control of the project”. Project elements supporting local adaptation RWSEP project has two major elements that support local climate adaptation: i) increased community capacity initiate, manage and implement their priority projects with support from woredas, and ii) sustainable water supply facility implementation and maintenance. Looking at the contribution of the RWSEP on adaptive capacity through a set of livelihoods components, it can be noted that project activities contribute positively to several pro-climate adaptation livelihoods assets (incl. human, social, natural, physical and financial – see figure 1). Major improvement has happened in physical assets in the form of water supply facility construction, relying strongly on local people52, which has made critical natural assets, i.e. fresh water resources available in better quantity and quality. Water supply facility is basic infrastructure providing basic service (potable water) thus freeing time to other (livelihood) activities. The project activities include protection measures around the water points, with limited re-vegetation and e.g. planting of trees.53 A water supply system, with well selected locations for water points and that is robust enough to stand climate change and variability, enhances social and economic stability in local communities suffering, in addition to climate challenges, from many other, often more acute interlinked challenges such as high density of population, health risks, low agricultural production, deforestation, soil erosion, competition of scarce resources etc. Improvement in local level financial assets has been pursued by developing CDF 54 and Credit products. Water stakeholder forum supports social relationships (social asset) in the communities that can be also utilized in pursuit for other livelihood activities. There are several elements in the project that contribute to human assets and enhanced local skills. Private sector development is not necessarily focused exactly on local communities, but optimally it is supporting local capacity on water resources services. The programme contains also other elements of human capacity building, such as sanitation training and improved health conditions, which contribute to reduction of overall vulnerability of local communities to climatic and non-climatic threats.55

52

Hand dug wells up to some 30 meters depth. In some cases overflows from water points are also used for irrigation of growing vegetables nearby, for improved hygiene such as washing clothes, taking showers as well as for animals 54 The Community Development Fund (CDF) is a financing mechanism for community initiatives in rural development. 55 RWSEP project has also reshaped some of the structures (i.e. different levels of governance and private sector) and processes (i.e. laws, policies, culture and institutions) that influence livelihoods. Different levels of government are targeted as several of the measures were focused on development of increased capacity of woreda, zonal and regional levels. Private sector development is also one of the focuses since CDF related materials and services production was supported. Cultural changes contributing to resilience have also been promoted in the form of sustainable sanitation and hygiene behavioral change and gender mainstreaming. 53

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Project elements undermining local adaptation Through the screening process no element that would contribute negatively to local adaptation capacity is identified. Obviously e.g. a rapid decline in the functionality of water points could endanger wider progress reached (be it human, social, financial development)56 but with regards to programmed project activities, they consistently contribute to improved adaptive capacity. Conclusions and potential entry points for interventions In conclusion, the initial climate screening of RWSEP reveals low-medium level risks for project outcomes (currently and in the short-term). Climate extremes have so far posed only limited problems for project implementation but taking note of the reported climatic experiences of past 510 years on local level and the projected increase in intensity and frequency of floods, drought and heavy rains, further coping measures should be considered as part of the on-going project phase-out phase in order to ensure the functionality of some 3000 water points also in the future. While the high level functionality of the water points indicates a good choice of sites and preparation of wells, systematic monitoring of ground water level could provide valuable information for potential follow-up measures. On a wider level the integrated watershed and land use management approach has been widely adopted and provides the framework for addressing, in addition to increasing climate challenges, the other pressing development needs on local level. Taking note of the aim to duplicate the successful programme approach and scale-up the activities in other woredas, considering systematically the longer-term climate risks as part of project preparation (despite uncertainties and gaps in climate data), identifying potential coping measures also to weather extremes as well as further strengthening concrete local level adaptive skills and awareness, could provide opportunities to further climate proof the implemented programmes.

4.3 Rural Water supply, Sanitation and Hygiene programme in Benishangul Gumuz region (FinnWASH BG) The overall (long term) objective of the FinnWASH programme is “universal access to improved water supply, sanitation and hygiene in Benishangul-Gumuz Region”. The programme purpose is to achieve “increased capacity in the Region to plan and manage the WASH programme for the achievement of UAP (Universal Access Plan)57 goals in Benishangul Gumuz, using CDF as a strategic funding mechanism for community empowerment”.

56

Reportedly local communities have the capacity to regulate water usage in case scarcity or quality problems arise. In 2005, GoE produced a Universal Access Program, focusing only on water supply and sanitation. This plan redefines the concept of access to basic water supply and sanitation. According to the new definition, the access to an improved water source means the availability of at least 15 litres per person per day (lpcd) from a source within one and half a kilometre of the dwelling in rural areas and 20 litres in urban areas. 57

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Climate risks for project outcomes FinnWASH BG project approach and content (including institutional, environmental and technical setting) are very similar to RWSEP, which was studied above. Taking note of the start of actual FinnWASH implementation phase in July 2009, this initial screening reviews expected project outcomes and strongly refers to analysis and findings of the RWSEP climate screening exercise. The success of institutional development efforts in organizing water supply facilities will be decisive for the achievement of FinnWASH project objectives. The provision of clean water in 5 woredas, for 250 000 people in approximately 600 communities will require a.o. the establishment of some 600700 water points, which are essential for delivering the expected services.58 While climate change and variability may have direct effects on the foreseen project infrastructure and implementation, it may also pose some indirect risks related to social, human and institutional capacities necessary to achieve the project outcomes. Climate-induced direct risks for FinnWASH project outcomes could be related with extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods and heavy rains. However, so far droughts and floods have not been frequently reported in the programme woredas. While the programme area generally enjoys an annual average rainfall amount in the range of +-1,000 mm the increased variability in rainfall patterns (changed arrival of rains, intensiveness of rains etc) do already pose increased challenges for local livelihoods and food security. In the longer-term, continued temperature increase (by mid century projected to increase between 1°C and 3°C) could among other things pose risks to groundwater level, i.e. water scarcity risks at some water points. With regards to other potential climate parameters (e.g. heat waves, cold days/nights, storms, wild fires, etc), reportedly these do currently not pose any significant risks at the project area. In addition to these risks on the technical water supply system, project implementation could in some cases be indirectly hampered by climate factors, e.g. due to limited access to project areas caused by heavy rains or floods. Construction conditions of planned water infrastructure could be worsened for the same reasons but these risks can be managed through sensible timing of project activities. Prior climate considerations During project preparation, climatic hazards, in particular floods and droughts, have been identified as the most serious external risks that might affect FinnWASH BG (in addition to overall peace and stability in the region). The likelihood of these climate extremes has been assessed low but potential impacts significant. These risks have been considered beyond control of the FinnWASH programme

58

Some 90% of the water points will be hand dug (into a depth of approximately 12-20 meters) and some 10% of the water points will consist of “protected springs”.

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and addressed in the logical framework as assumptions (“No major change in climate affects implementation”). Project elements supporting local adaptation FinnWASH project has several elements that support local climate adaptation, related to its core objectives, i.e. i) Institutionalised community capacity to construct and maintain community managed water supply and adopt appropriate technologies and behaviours related to sanitation and hygiene sustainably, ii) CDF mechanism institutionalized as a mechanism to finance WASH investments, iii) Institutionalised capacity at woreda level to support communities in implementing WASH activities, including reinvestment, and iv) Institutionalised capacity at zonal and regional levels to support WASH activities and replicate CDF approach. The activities that will be undertaken to reach these objectives can be expected to contribute positively to several pro-climate adaptation livelihoods assets (incl. human, social, natural, physical and financial – see figure 1). Construction of water supply facilities will make fresh water resources available in better quantity and quality and contribute to both improved natural and physical livelihood assets that directly reduce immediate vulnerability to climate variability. Institutionalized community capacity can be expected to have positive effects on social networks and assets, on human capital and cultural transformation. Knowledge and skills obtained through project activities can be beneficial in other (livelihood) activities, contribute to improved social networks and relationships in the communities and support sustainable sanitation and hygiene behavioural change. As experiences from RWSEP have demonstrated, the replication of the CDF mechanism should have a positive effect on FinnWASH target communities’ financial assets and help channel funds towards development efforts initiated by local stakeholders. Overall, the project activities will have a positive effect on local and regional governance. Increased local governance capacity, supporting local communities at initiating, managing and maintaining water supply facilities, can be expected to contribute to a reduction of overall vulnerability of local communities to climatic and non-climatic threats. Project elements undermining local adaptation The initial screening does not flag out project elements that would contribute negatively to local adaptation capacity. On the contrary, as noted above, the overall framework for FinnWASH can be expected to contribute to improved climate adaptive capacity in the programme areas. Conclusions and potential entry points for interventions In conclusion, the initial climate screening of FinnWASH BG reveals low - medium level risks for project outcomes. Reportedly floods and droughts have so far not been frequent in the programme woredas (figure 11). However, the already experienced variability in rainfall patterns as well as the projected changes in rainfall patterns, which could a.o. entail changes in timing of rainfall/rainfall periods as well as the intensity of rain events (see chapter 2) can pose real climate risks to local

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livelihoods. The potential increase of flood and drought events cannot be ruled out either, based on the available climate data. Figure 11. Map of Benishangul Gumuz and programme woredas (source: FinnWASH-BG MIS, based on various GIS datasets)

The CDF mechanism provides several opportunities to further strengthen the local adaptive capacity. The inclusion e.g. of a complementary project component (already envisioned by project stakeholders) of rainwater harvesting (possibly from house roofs), can provide a concrete tool for reducing local vulnerability to increased rainfall variability and droughts. As stated in chapter 2 analysis of climate projections, in particular related to rainfall patterns, the models show a wide variety in results, indicating a need for increased local level preparedness for both reduced rainfall as well as considerably increased rainfall in the future. Measures such as the harvesting of rainwater and usage for home gardens and growing fodder for cattle can be expected to improve food security and provide a no-regrets approach for strengthening local climate adaptive capacity in view of the uncertain climatic changes. Any further integrated efforts, promoting sustainable land use and water management and soil degradation, and more broadly climate vulnerability, 59 possibly funded through the CDF mechanism, should be carefully considered, in order to strengthen local livelihoods assets during the FinnWASH programme.

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Sedimentation of rivers poses also a considerable risk for fisheries.

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4.4 Technical Assistance to the Watershed Monitoring and Evaluation (WME) Component of the Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Development Project (TBIWRDP) The overall development objective of the WME project is “improved watershed and natural resource management, leading to improved and sustainable livelihoods in the Ribb, Gumera and Jema subwatersheds”. Hereby the Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) system that will be established should demonstrate the benefits of watershed conservation and management practices and facilitate the utilization of information produced for the benefit of all stakeholders. The project, which is entering implementation phase in July/August 2009, has identified 6 results (see Climate risks for project outcomes, below) that can be achieved through two main activities, i.e. i) development of a modern reliable MIS (Management Information System) and M&E, including data collection and database design into a system which will enable horizontal and vertical communication, and ii) improving management, planning and decision making based upon the use of M&E through capacity building and encouraging the use of timely and reliable data to raise awareness of its benefits and thereby increase ownership. The WME project, which is a component of the Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Development Project (see figure 12 below) has a very strong focus on organisational development, capacity building, training, and awareness and could serve as a basis for improved monitoring and evaluation services on regional and national level in Ethiopia.

Figure 12. WME project area. The overall objective of TBIWRDP is to develop enabling institutions and investments for integrated planning, management and development in the Tana and Beles Sub-basins to accelerate sustainable growth. Component B1 is one of the seven sub-components of TBIWRDP has been

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specifically designed to support sustainable watershed development and management through community based planning and participation in the Ribb, Gumera, and Jema sub-watersheds in the Lake Tana sub-basin. The WME Project, has been attached to the B1 to provide specific Technical Assistance to support the management of Component B1, and the entire TWIRDP, with regards to monitoring and evaluation.

Climate risks for project outcomes As a technical support project aimed at local and regional governance there are very few direct climate risks threatening the achievement of the expected six key results: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Relevant, accurate and reliable baseline information is available; Fully functional M&E system and MIS established; M&E system effectively used for planning and implementation by managers at national, regional, 60 Woreda and Kebele levels; Human and organisational capacity at regional, Woreda and Kebele levels enhanced to effectively implement M&E, M&E system is operating as a platform for effective horizontal and vertical information sharing among project stakeholders; Component B1 M&E system and MIS are institutionalised across levels among stakeholders.

The direct climatic risks e.g. due to possible extreme weather events associated with field measurements (such as riverbank gauging stations) can be considered low. Climate extremes might also create some difficulties in reaching remote project areas, but do not pose any considerable risks to reaching the identified key results. Outcomes of the project could in some cases be indirectly influenced by natural hazards leading to reduced staff resources in project and woreda/kebele organisations or e.g. lead to interruptions to participatory sampling programme (depending on local vulnerability). However, the current climatic hazards nor the projected climate change in the longer-term (including temperature increase 1-3°C by mid-century, changes in precipitation or other climatic parameters), do not pose any significant risks to the achievement of the project outcomes. Prior climate considerations During WME project preparation and planning climate change and variability issues have generally been taken into consideration, noting that “natural disasters do not pose direct risks to the project but may potentially indirectly affect implementation”. WME project documentation does not elaborate further on these considerations e.g. how the potential climate implications have been assessed or in which manner implementation might be indirectly affected. A priori, climate considerations are at the heart of the entire Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Development Project (TBIWRDP), of which WME will form a key component. Investments that are to be provided through TBIWRDP in watershed development are expected to provide tangible benefits

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A kebele, which is part of a woredas, is the smallest administrative unit of Ethiopia.

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in terms of providing climate resilience to highly vulnerable stakeholders who primarily depend on rain-fed agriculture and livestock.61 Project elements supporting local adaptation As a technical support project aimed at local and regional governance the project will not have considerable direct impacts on local livelihoods and the livelihood assets that enable climate adaptation. However, as a by-product several project activities may indirectly contribute to local livelihood assets. The WME project is clearly focusing on different levels of governance in order to enhance the capacity and means for natural resource management. In the climate adaptation point of view, it is essential that local governance is provided with means for climate sensitive planning and management, which in turn can create an operating environment for local livelihoods that enables feasible adaptation opportunities for climatic conditions. For example, produced MIS and M&E systems can provide local and regional governance insight on critical issues related e.g. to irrigation and farming practices, which may be at risk in the future due to weather extremes, temperature increase and/or changed rainfall patterns. With this insight, and based on reliable data and M&E processes, local governance can design their planning and management interventions to best enhance local livelihood assets (e.g. human capital in form of knowledge on suitable farming practices in changing climate) and therefore also adaptive capacity. Increased availability of information in local and regional governance is especially important when considering natural resources management. Without this information regional level water and land resources management cannot, or is extremely difficult to, be carried out successfully. Successful watershed scale land use and water resources management is crucial for the local livelihoods. In line with project documents, project baseline studies will produce information that can be very useful when considering climate change implications to the area. Baseline information will include essential climatic data as well as rather comprehensive package of social and socio-economic information on the local societies. While local people are not the target user group for baseline studies and M&E results, produced information can “trickle down” to village level and be used to enhance local adaptation measures. Hence local awareness and knowledge (human assets) on natural resource management may indirectly increase through WME. Also social assets may be increased through the establishment of participatory sampling programmes which can result in enhanced social networks locally.

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The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) and the World Bank (WB) have been preparing the TBIWRDP since 2006. See e.g. PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT, TANA & BELES INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (May 2, 2008) which assesses the sustainability and potential project risks and safeguard policies of the TBIWRDP. It highlights high climate variability that impacts local livelihoods, in particular through droughts in the sub-basins, and floods (especially around Lake Tana) and points out that future climate change is expected to exacerbate this variability and adds to the uncertainties that currently impact livelihoods and investments in that area. In addition, Lake Tana faces significant water and natural resources degradation problems.

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Project elements undermining local adaptation Through the screening process no element that would contribute negatively to local adaptation capacity was identified. Conclusions and potential entry points for interventions This initial climate screening of Technical Assistance to the Watershed Monitoring and Evaluation (WME) Component of the Tana Beles reveals only low level risks for project outcomes. Even if climate risks have not been explicitly assessed, they have been taken into consideration in a rather comprehensive manner, through an integrated watershed approach to management of water resources and land use. The baseline studies will answer a wide set of questions and will a.o. provide information on amount of rainfall, water flows and soil erosion (incl. sedimentation in the rivers) which could be systematically analyzed also from a climate adaptation perspective. For proper inclusion of the climate adaptation perspective it is vital to obtain information on the local communities affected. Social and power structures in the societies, livelihood strategies and economic activities among others are key factors determining adaptive capacity. Consequently, the well elaborated baseline studies could provide valuable information on experienced climate hazards, sensitivity of key resources (land, water, forest) to climate change and variability, local coping strategies, level of soil loss and degradation etc, which could directly feed into formulation of measures for strengthening local adaptation capacity.62 The WME will also provide information on reforestation progress, which could also serve as a basis for seeking additional funding for sustainable watershed and land use management activities through carbon sequestration funding. Consequently, during WME project implementation several potential entry points for further informing and monitoring pro-adaptation decision making as well as supporting concrete local level adaptation measures may be identified. Regarding the entire TBIWRDP, World Bank is planning to address climate risks in more detail as part of its long-term engagement for the Growth Corridor.63 These efforts should feed into all on-going and planned development cooperation activities in the Tana Beles watershed.

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See draft baseline questionnaires. Technical Assistance to the Watershed Monitoring and Evaluation (WME) Component of the Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Development Project (TBIWRDP) in Ethiopia. Version May 2009. 63 At the time of writing this document, the World Bank is about to finalize its “Growth Study” for the Tana & Beles area, which will contribute to setting a road map for WB support in the area in the longer term.

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5 Conclusions and recommendations Key findings and conclusions Climate variability and change pose critical challenges to Ethiopian development aspirations and the ability of existing institutions to manage new and emerging risks. Managing these risks effectively will require a systematic integration of climate risk considerations into national policies, management practices and development programmes. Despite climate change having recently risen onto the Ethiopian national policy agenda, mainstreaming climate into Ethiopian development policies is only at an initial stage and several barriers block the access to mitigation funding and hamper the concrete implementation of climate adaptation measures on national, regional and local levels. The extremely high dependence of the Ethiopian economy on rain fed agriculture, which is very sensitive to climate variability, is one of the main causes of vulnerability in Ethiopia. The overall underdevelopment of the water-sector is another critical component contributing to climate vulnerability. Despite the fact that Ethiopia has substantial water resources, these have neither been developed nor managed well, leaving rapidly growing populations vulnerable to the destructive impacts of water and climate variability. Ethiopia’s extensive dependence on hydropower and plans to build additional damns may further increase the country’s exposure to climatic risks. As the national Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty still strongly relies on agricultural production being the primary driver for growth in the coming years, it is of vital importance to find concrete and immediate means to strengthen the national adaptive capacity and in the longer term guide economic growth towards less climate sensitive activities. A strong institutional ownership of climate policy (be it adaptation or mitigation) is still lacking in Ethiopia, with the absence of a clear home-base for climate policy and decisive leadership for policy coordination and cross-sectoral communication. The recent establishment of a “National Forum on Climate Change” may help to overcome some of these barriers, possibly leading to the elaboration of a national climate strategy. International cooperation currently lacks strategy, capacity and effective cooperation models on climate change. The international community should improve their coordination on climate & development issues in order to ensure that all development cooperation efforts systematically take climate risk management as well as adaptation strengthening as cross-cutting issues into account. The mid-term review of UNDAF (United Nations Development Assistance Framework, 2007-2011) provides one opportunity to elevate the priority of climate change. While a continued increase in temperature can be projected with high confidence for Ethiopia, there is still considerable uncertainty about the future patterns of rainfall and weather extremes including droughts and floods, which cause major socioeconomic disruption. Despite these uncertainties and evident climate data gaps (a.o. data on already experienced climate variability, information on how

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local communities have adapted, short-term forecasting, regional climate modelling and projections) the existing body of knowledge could guide overall policy development and investments in Ethiopia towards lower climate vulnerability. Climate mainstreaming will require a climate sensitive planning approach and risk management capacity, which explicitly takes into account climate risks by identifying robust, low/no – regrets solutions. Lessons learned from other countries point out the importance of ensuring that climate risk considerations and mainstreaming are particularly well rooted in national economic planning. Ethiopia has not been able to gain access to carbon market funding and further efforts are required to capitalize potential for climate mitigation parallel to adaptation. In particular, additional specific capacity building and technical assistance are needed to develop examples of multi-benefit climate projects in areas such as renewable energy and land-use management and REDD+. The Finnish development cooperation activities in Ethiopia focus strategically on sectors (in particular water, education, land use) which are in many respects at the nexus of development and climate challenges. This provides Finland an exceptional opportunity, and a particular responsibility, to ensure that all Finnish activities contribute to sustainable growth, poverty reduction as well as strengthened adaptive capacity in Ethiopia to cope with climate variability and change. With the dual aim to contribute to the mainstreaming of climate into Finnish development cooperation and strengthen Ethiopian adaptive capacity, three development cooperation projects in the water sector in the states of Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuz have been climate screened as part of this assessment. Two of the selected projects focus on water supply and sanitation (and hygiene/environment) in local communities as well as on the communities’ ability to implement and maintain sustainable community managed water supply facilities. One of the selected projects has its focus on watershed monitoring and evaluation as a part of an integrated water resources development project. The initial screening (applying a “climate lens” on the projects) reveals only limited climate risks to project outcomes, even if climate variability and change in particular, have not been explicitly considered during project planning. Weather extremes, in particular floods and droughts may pose low-to-medium level risks for some specific project activities. However, in general these weather extremes have been considered to be “beyond the immediate control of the projects”. The selected three projects comprise several elements that strengthen local adaptive capacity as they contribute to improved livelihoods assets (bet it natural, social, human, financial and/or physical assets). As such, the applied integrated approach to watershed management acknowledges explicitly the vital interlinkages between water resource management and sustainable land use, and hereby promotes several pro-climate adaptation activities. The monitoring and evaluation programme will help strengthen institutional capacity and cooperation (regional and local level) and provide solid baseline and monitoring information, which can also serve as basis for systematic adaptation planning and implementation. The innovative CDF (Community Development Fund) financing mechanism, launched as part of project implementation, has proven to be a successful means to strengthen local livelihoods and hereby also reduce vulnerability to climate variability.

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The initial screening also identified potential for improvement in project planning and implementation phases in order to ensure better climate mainstreaming in the future. With regards to project planning phase, taking note of the considerable social, environmental and economic impacts of weather extremes, and the probability of increase thereof, the projects should systematically include a longer-term strategy for addressing these challenges, beyond the immediate planning horizon of the development project.64 During implementation, by introducing specific modifications and adjustments to project activities (e.g. water harvesting, reforestation, revegetation, adaptation monitoring, carbon sequestration & monitoring etc) the Finnish funded projects could even further strengthen livelihoods and the climate adaptive capacity on local and regional levels. Discussions with various project partners during the assessment have shown a profound understanding of the importance of climate adaptation within the projects and an interest in further strengthening the climate adaptation dimension of the projects.

Recommendations As part of the international community Finland is committed to climate mitigation efforts as well as assisting developing countries to adapt to climate change. In line with this responsibility and based on the findings of this assessment a set of recommendations for follow-up can be made: A. Support Ethiopian climate policy formulation and efforts to adapt to climate variability and the already on-going impacts of climate change i. ii. iii.

Provide further support to Ethiopian climate policy formulation, inter-sectoral coordination, institutional capacity and implementation. Promote more efficient and systematic donor coordination on climate adaptation and mitigation. Provide additional support to identify climate mitigation and adaptation synergies (“multi-benefit projects”) and new innovative climate funding opportunities (including improved access to carbon markets).

B. Continue addressing climate challenges through Finnish focus sectors, i.e. water, education and land use management, which provide excellent pathways for supporting Ethiopian climate priorities iv.

v.

Integrate climate change considerations into all Finnish funded activities (planned and on-going) in order to ensure that they contribute to sustainable growth and poverty reduction in a manner that reduces climate vulnerability in Ethiopia. Carry on with the application of integrated watershed and ecosystem approaches with considerable potential to ameliorate local livelihoods.

C. Develop a comprehensive policy and a set of tools to integrate climate risk considerations in all Finnish Development Cooperation.

64 This finding concurs with lessons learned from other studies, noting that development projects and plans are reasonably well designed relative to average climatic risks but pay much less attention to risks associated with climate variability and extreme events, which is resulting in rapidly rising disaster losses.

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vi.

vii.

viii.

Conduct initial climate risk screenings in other sectors and partner countries to gain additional lessons and practical recommendations on how to best carry out the systematic mainstreaming. At the first place, the screening could address Finnish funded projects in sectors such as forestry, water and energy. Apply a phased approach in climate mainstreaming including an initial screening and in-depth risk assessment, when/where required due to high climate risks and/or high adaptation strengthening potential. This overall approach should allow an efficient and focused use of resources in climate mainstreaming efforts. Design a flexible and cost-effective project evaluation mechanism which actively involves key project formulation persons as well as all relevant national and local level stakeholders. This should ensure a strong commitment to climate screening follow-up and help build national and local awareness, capacity and ownership.

E. Actively share the lessons learned from all climate mainstreaming activities in Ethiopia with the national partners as well as the international community and make use of the experience in climate mainstreaming efforts in other development cooperation partner countries.

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Appendix Annex I. Ethiopia Climate Change Implications for Finland Climate change is one of the central challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. The way in which we will address it will have profound implications for human development in different parts of the planet. This annex studies some of the climate challenges that Ethiopia is already facing and what the implications could mean for Finland. The cases, which are looking at the potential implications through trade, security, conflict and human displacement interlinkages highlight the urgent need to strengthen the adaptive capacity of a country such as Ethiopia in view of on-going and still accelerating climate change. While pointing out several important interlinkages that have to be taken into account in Ethiopian and Finnish-Ethiopian development efforts, the cases provide a strong argument for keeping the focus of developed countries in particular, and the more advanced developing countries, on immediate and considerable climate mitigation efforts – adaptation is necessary but only part of a sustainable long-term solution.

Climate change and trade Introduction In order to assess impacts of climate change to a country’s economy, it is necessary to have estimates of the impacts and costs of climate change (be it gradual temperature increases, changed precipitation patters, increased climate variability or weather extremes) on different socio-economic activities. In many countries information (qualitative and quantitative) on costs is not readily available. In particular in developing countries climate data on observed climatic changes is rarely recorded in a consistent manner over time, and where it exists it is often in a form that requires additional work before it can be used. However, certain overall trends and requirements for socio-economic transformations, due to climate change and policy responses thereto, can be identified. Climate change will have implications for economic activities through production, consumption and international trade. Climate change may hinder economic growth and thereby also worsen poverty and social instability (see more on climate change and conflict in Chapter 2). Figure 1 presents how greenhouse gas emissions create socio-economic impacts. Responding to climate change will require a fundamental

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restructuring across key economic sectors such as energy, industry, transportation and agriculture. It will also require action within a wide range of global regulatory frameworks, well beyond the climate regime itself.65 Population, technology, production, consumption Emissions Atmospheric concentrations Radiative forcing and global climate Regional climate and weather Direct impacts (e.g. crops, forests, ecosystems) Socio-economic impacts

Figure 1. Modelling climate change from emissions to impacts66 A global and swift energy transition will be necessary to move to a low-carbon economy path. Improvements in the generation and use of energy as well as development and diffusion of new and clean sources of energy are needed.67 Also land use will require a lot of attention due to climate change as agriculture and forestry cumulatively account for over 30 percent of global carbon emissions, with e.g. deforestation and forest degradation contributing to approximately 18 percent of global carbon emissions.68 Production and trade patterns are likely to change as some regions become less suited to agricultural production, and others become better adapted. Currently, experts anticipate that the production potential of mid- to high-latitudes is likely to increase, and to decrease in low latitudes. As a result, trade flows of high-latitude and mid-latitude products are expected to increase, with products such as cereals and livestock products being exported towards low-latitude regions. However, the exact nature of these shifts in production and trade patterns remains unclear, and more research is needed before policy-makers can properly understand the likely implications. 69 As countries increasingly focus on addressing their adaptation needs, trade remains largely unchartered territory. Sectors such as agriculture that provide the greatest trade potential for many developing countries will be most affected by climate change, and therefore the most in need of

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Crick & Dougherty (2006: 8), ICTSD (2008: 1) Stern (2006:146) 67 ICTSD (2008: xii) 68 The three main areas for mitigating climate change using forestry and wood products are:, i) activities that reduce greenhouse gas emissions from forests, ii) activities that help maintain the ability of forests to store carbon (such as management techniques including low impact logging, and long-term use of forests and forests products) and iii) activities that expand the capacity of forests to store carbon (such as reforestation and agroforestry). ICTSD 2008: xiii 69 ICTSD 2008: 18 66

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adaptation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts that by 2020, rain-fed agricultural production in several African countries will decline by 50 percent. On the other hand, in temperate regions, production may increase due to warmer weather, allowing the generation of a surplus. Such changes are likely to affect patterns of international trade, with gains in some places and losses in others, in ways that are yet to be fully understood. In addition, the changes in energy prices as well as shape and structure of a post-2012 climate agreement could have considerable trade related implications for developing countries. As many poor countries depend on export revenues from few sectors, in particular agriculture, these economic implications need to be given careful consideration in trade and climate policy processes. 70 Impacts on Ethiopia Ethiopia’s major industry is agriculture and animal husbandry (80 % of total employment). Government and services account for 12 % and industry and construction 8 %. Agriculture accounts for nearly half the country's GDP, 60% of its exports and 80% of total employment. Major trading partners are Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, US, Germany, China, Japan, Italy and India.71 Coffee is critical to the Ethiopian economy with exports of some $350 million in 2006, but historically low prices have seen many farmers switching to other crops to supplement income. The Ethiopian economy has done well in recent years, with GDP growing by 11.4% in 2006-07 and with the poverty headcount reducing from 44% in 1999/2000 to 39% in the recent 2004/05 survey. There have been important recent gains, especially in human development indicators, transport, the investment climate, small town development, and the fight against food insecurity. Pro-poor spending as a share of the budget has risen from 41% in 1997/98 to 62% in 2005/06. The Country Economic Memorandum 2006 (CEM) on Growth and Governance finds that important progress has been achieved in the past decade, largely driven by improved institutions, including at the regional and local levels, which have been able to deliver a scaling-up o f services and infrastructure. 72 However, significant challenges remain to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), especially the goal of halving poverty by 2015, particularly considering that the recent progress is from a very low base and that the Ethiopian economy remains highly vulnerable to climate shocks. Inflation was high (18% during 2006/07), with associated increases in food prices. Imports have been growing faster than exports, enlarging the trade deficit. However, public expenditure has been well managed in recent years and the fiscal deficit has reduced from 4.6% of GDP in 2005/06 to 3.6% of GDP in 2006/07.73 The Ethiopian agricultural sector is dominated by small-scale farmers who employ largely rain-fed and traditional practices – a state which renders Ethiopia highly vulnerable to climate variability, and thus to climate change. An indication of the impact that climate variability and climate change has

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ICTSD 2008: xv http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/about-the-fco/country-profiles/sub-saharan-africa/ethiopia?profile=economy&pg=2 72 World Bank (2008:9) 73 World Bank (2008:9) 71

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on its economy is illustrated in Figure 2, which shows that economic growth as measured by GDP is strongly correlated with rainfall patterns.74

Figure 2. Rainfall variation around the mean and GDP growth in Ethiopia75 It is not uncommon to observe an upward and downward relationship with rainfall and GDP and agricultural GDP, the most definite ones being around the drought years of 1984/85, 1994, 1998, and 2002/2003. Loss of export earnings during drought years are consistently double or triple the percentage losses of agricultural GDP. For example, in 1978 when a rain shortage of 21% occurred, export loss was 8% while agricultural GDP decreased by about 1.6%. The 1983/84 drought had left a 20% reduction of exports in 1984 and successive slumps of 14% and 3% in the years that followed. 76 Rainfall in many parts of Ethiopia, in the Belg season and in its timing shows high levels of variability. Major droughts may result in sharp reductions in agricultural output, related productive activity, and employment. This in turn can lead to lower agricultural export earnings and other losses associated with a decline in rural income, reduced consumption and investment, and destocking and may have additional multiplier effects on the monetary economy. Figure 3 presents Ethiopia’s various sectors’ vulnerability to climate change. Ethiopia’s agriculture and water resources sectors are in particular at risk. While historically floods have never been a major economic hazard in Ethiopia (with exceptions in the Awash River) recent years have seen significant socio-economic disruption due to flooding (e.g. 1997, 2006). 77

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Crick & Dougherty (2006: 1) Crick & Dougherty (2006: 1) 76 World Bank (2006). 77 Crick & Dougherty (2006: 8-9) 75

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Figure 3. Impacts of climate change on various sectors in Ethiopia78 Layered on top of these, prevailing conditions of poverty, environmental and climatic factors create a number of pressing challenges for Ethiopia. The depletion of forests – primarily for household fuel use – threatens species and communities, diminishes tourism potential and reduces other valuable services forests provide. This example represents the type of current environmental concerns that could be exacerbated under climate change conditions. However, very little work has been done to quantify the economic effects of climate variability or extremes in Ethiopia, despite the high profile and significant impacts that e.g. droughts have had.79 Potential implications to Finland In 2008, the value of imports from Ethiopia to Finland was 6.3 million euro and exports to Ethiopia were 5.5 million euro. The share of imports and exports from and to Ethiopia was close to 0 % from total Finnish imports and exports. Ethiopia is in 88th place in the list of importing countries to Finland according to magnitude,80 indicating that trade between Ethiopia and Finland is currently very limited. Imports from Ethiopia to Finland include coffee, leather and leather products as well as textile fabrics and garments. Finland exports to Ethiopia equipment and machinery, paper, cardboard chemicals and medicine81. Finland operates in Ethiopia mainly in terms of development cooperation. As trade between Finland and Ethiopia is insignificant, climate change impacts on Ethiopia will have few trade-related implications to Finland despite the severe impacts it will have on Ethiopia’s own economy and trade. In development cooperation, Finland should assist Ethiopia in sustainable agriculture methods, which produce better crop productivity and tolerate better climate change conditions. In addition, alternative livelihoods should be encouraged and supported to reduce climate change vulnerability of agricultural livelihoods as well as to support Ethiopia’s accelerated path to development. One of the existing problems to this is Ethiopia's land tenure system, where the government owns all land and provides long-term leases to the tenants. This system continues to hamper growth in the industrial sector as entrepreneurs are unable to use land as collateral for loans. Improving farm productivity is also challenging as low productivity derives from a handful of reasons: lack of agricultural inputs, outdated farming methods, deforestation, overgrazing, soil erosion, widespread

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Conway et al. (2007: 29-30). Crick & Dougherty (2006: 5, 8-9) 80 National Board of Customs, Finland: www.tulli.fi 81 Embassy of Finland in Ethiopia: http://www.finland.org.et/Public/default.aspx?nodeid=31695 79

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land degradation, insecure land tenure as well as recurrent droughts and floods. Consequently, climate adaptation should be systematically mainstreamed into all development planning and programming as droughts as well as war with Eritrea in 1998-2000 have buffeted the economy. The on-going Finnish development cooperation activities are focusing on many of the key challenges above (including a.o. integrated watershed management, sustainable land management and administration, education) and provide a good basis to further support Ethiopia in its efforts to address the development and climate challenges in a comprehensive manner.

Climate change and security Introduction The United Nations Security Council held its first meeting on climate change, energy supplies and security in April 2007. Some countries were hesitant to deal with such a topic at the council, but the majority however agreed that climate change poses a threat to international security, and the Security Council is an appropriate forum to discuss the matter.82 Climate change is perceived to threaten existing drivers of conflict and therefore threaten achieved development across many countries. One of the areas most likely to suffer from the threats posed by climate change to international peace and security is Africa. Conflict of Darfur is considered to be an example which has been driven partly by climate change and environmental degradation. Rainfall has fallen by 30 % during the past 40 years and the Sahara has advanced by more than a mile each year. This has led to increased tensions among farmers and herders and led to conflict. However, in this and other instances, environmental considerations are only partly to blame. It is important to recognise that a range of climate-related shocks and stresses can raise the risk of conflict. 83 Predicting conflicts alone is challenging and analysing in detail the role of climate change to future conflicts is difficult. In some parts of the world, climate change is contributing to socio-political tensions but only as one factor amongst other, more immediate environmental triggers like water shortages, food insecurity and land degradation. However, certain potential paths can be identified. Climate change can create scarcity of resources, such as water resources, which leads to competition and conflict. Climate change may further decrease local agricultural productivity and make global food prices increasingly volatile, further politicizing the issues of food security. Violence can also arise when conflict-resolution institutions and mechanisms fail. But conflict is the result of many social factors such as ethnicity, adverse economic conditions and low levels of international trade.84 Figure 4 shows where drought-risk hotspots intersect with areas already considered being at high and extreme risk of conflict. According to the map, climate change raises the risk of conflict in, among others, east Africa. However, during the next 20-30 year period, the additional degree of risk resulting from climate change is uncertain and probably not substantial. During this short timeframe,

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Brown et al. 2007: 1142-1143 Brown et al. (2007: 1142-1143); Ehrhart et al. (2008: 19) 84 Brown et al. (2007: 1147-1148, 1150); Ehrhart et al. (2008: 19); IISD (2009: 2); UNEP (2009: 5) 83

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according to some estimates, it may be more important to understand and address how conflict undermines societies’ capacity to adapt to climate change. 85

Figure 4. Drought hotspots/conflict86 The potential consequences of climate change for water availability, food security, prevalence of disease, coastal boundaries, and population distribution may aggravate existing tensions and generate new conflicts. Conflicts can occur when there is a local abundance of valuable resources and acute poverty or lack of income opportunities. This creates an incentive for groups to attempt to capture them. In addition, conflicts can occur over the direct use of scarce resources such as land, forests, water and wildlife. Also economies that are dependent on the export of a narrow set of primary commodities are more likely to be politically fragile. A determining factor is how natural resources, the environment, poverty and inequality are governed.87 Climate change adaptation can therefore provide an opportunity for positive, fruitful invention by the international community to foster peaceful economic cooperation among competing groups of resource users in regions where achieving sustainable livelihoods is a challenge. Designing and implementing adaptation strategies can either create or resolve conflicts, depending on how adaptation is implemented. Alternative livelihood strategies can encourage local dependency on activities that prove to be unreliable and therefore increase vulnerability to climate stress and potentially conflict. At best, adaptation can help direct money and attention to reduce vulnerability to climate change and also environmental degradation, poverty and conflict.88

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Ehrhart et al. (2008: 19) Ehrhart et al. (2008: 22) 87 UNEP (2009: 5, 8-10); Ehrhart et al. (2008: 19) 88 Brown et al. (2007: 1150-1152) 86

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Impacts on Ethiopia Ethiopia is an authoritarian state. Authoritarianism derives from history, feudal society and from a long-term communist government era, which came to an end in the 1991 revolution. This tradition can be still seen in present hierarchical structures, inequality and slow democracy development. There have been three democratic elections since 1995, but they have been characterized by unclarities in vote counting and been disturbed by opposition parties. Ethiopia recognizes civil rights but despite this freedom of speech, freedom of the press and political opinion freedom has not materialized. Ethiopia is a potential hotspot for conflicts associated with climate change due to the fact that it is already a poor state (Figure 5). Due to climate change (see chapter 2) Ethiopia is likely to suffer particularly from increased drought and extreme precipitation which will challenge peace and security questions. Additionally Ethiopia will be affected by situations in neighbouring states and obviously any climatic changes and environmental pressures in Ethiopia affects its neighbouring countries and vice versa. Access to water in the countries of the Nile basin is dependent on runoff from the Ethiopian highlands and the level of Lake Victoria, both of which are sensitive to variations in rainfall. Ethiopia is in a region already characterised by weak states, civil wars and major refugee flows (e.g. Somalia, Chad, Sudan, Niger) and climate change is predicted to cause additional environmental stress and social crises such as drought, harvest failure and water scarcity89.

Figure 5. Security risks associated with climate change: Selected hotspots

89

WBGU 2007: 3

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For example in the Lake Tana sub-basin there are a number of issues contributing to emerging conflicts over resource uses and threats to the Lake Tana ecosystem. These include90: • Lake regulation; • Growing population and livestock pressures on land, and serious land degradation; • Increasing demand for energy; • Uncoordinated water resources development, an inadequate policy framework, • Inadequate scientific and socio-economic information and knowledge on limnology, lack of a clear institutional responsibility for the management of Lake Tana; fisheries, wetlands, and other biological resources; and • Absence of a regulatory framework for allocating water, controlling pollution, managing watersheds, regulating fisheries, and protecting forests and wetlands. There are also major human factors at play in the Boma area. The food security status of the populations in this area has deteriorated, partially due to drought and this has led to conflicts. The populations in this area are also overly-dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods. The unsustainable exploitation of wildlife and other natural resources are a direct threat to the traditional livelihoods of local people and sustainable development.91 Potential implications to Finland In June 2000, after two years of fighting in a border dispute, Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a cessation of hostilities agreement. In July, the Security Council set up United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) to maintain liaison with the parties and establish a mechanism for verifying the ceasefire. In September 2000, the Council authorized UNMEE to monitor the cessation of hostilities and to help ensure the observance of security commitments. With the decision of the Security Council, the UNMEE mandate was terminated in July 2008. The Council decision came in response to crippling restrictions imposed by Eritrea on UNMEE, as well as the cutting off of fuel supplies – making it impossible for the operation to continue carrying out its mandated tasks, and putting at risk the safety and security of UN personnel. 92 Finland participated in UNMEE from the beginning by providing military observers. A Finnish officer also commanded a contact office between UNMEE and Ethiopian officials in Addis Ababa. As mentioned in previous chapter, climate change may intensify existing disputes and create new conflicts, which could increase the need of Finnish peacekeepers and observers in the future.93 While the direct security implications for Finland may be considered minimal, Finland should carefully take note of the multiple causes behind conflicts, including environmental concerns, and work actively to reduce the vulnerability of Ethiopian society to climate change. In addition, cross-

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World Bank (2008: 27-28) Crick (2006: 57) 92 http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/missions/unmee/index.html 93 http://www.mil.fi/rauhanturvaaja/operaatiot/etiopia.dsp 91

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border initiatives, such as the Nile Basin Initiative (including Finnish support to ENTRO, the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office, working together with Ethiopian, Sudanese and Egyptian stakeholders on integrated basin management) may provide an important complementing tool for other security and development efforts in the region

Climate change and human displacement Introduction Migration to climatic changes is by far not a new issue. Scarce resources have driven people to flee previously throughout history. What distinguishes the climate change we talk about now from previous climate changes is the speed of change and the magnitude of the impacts. In addition, the global scale of environmental changes and the potential of human agency to respond to it are new phenomena.94 Already in 1990 the IPCC noted that one of the greatest single impacts of climate change might be on human migration due to shoreline erosion, coastal flooding and agricultural disruption. In the mid-1990s 25 million people were considered to have been forced from their homes and land because of serious environmental pressures such as pollution land degradation, droughts and natural disasters. This figure exceeded refugee figures from war and political persecution together.95 According to some estimations climate change could displace 200 million people by 2050. The figure would mean in practice that one in every 45 people in the world would be displaced by climate change in 2050. However, there are no certainties of exact figures because climate change impacts to human populations are not clearly known. Climate migrants will occur both from climate processes, which are slow-onset changes such as sea-level rise, salinization of agricultural land, desertification, growing water scarcity and food insecurity, as well as climate events, which are sudden and dramatic hazards such as monsoon floods, storms, hurricanes and typhoons. 96 In addition non-climate drivers are equally important. Vulnerability to, for example, natural disasters depends vastly on the communities’ potentials to protect themselves from the impacts. Poor built houses, lack of warning systems and peoples’ ignorance of needed actions in the event of, for example, a storm, all increase vulnerability. Therefore, a community’s vulnerability is a function of its exposure to climatic conditions such as a coastal location as well as the community’s adaptive capacity.97 Adaptive capacity varies by regions, countries and communities. Also national and individual wealth determines vulnerability and can enable better disaster risk reduction, disaster education and prompter responses. Richer countries have better potentials to protect their citizens and richer

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Boano et al. (2008: 5) Brown (2008a: 11) 96 Brown (2008a: 11) 97 Brown (2008a: 11-18) 95

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citizens have more options than poorer people. Climate change will have foremost an impact on already existing problems such as food security questions and water scarcity. But the impacts of climate change and amount of people displaced by climate change will depend, among others, on the temperature rise in the future. At the moment, there are only different kinds of scenarios available as the future is impossible to predict precisely. Impacts on forced migration will depend on the following issues98: -

The quantity of future greenhouse gas emissions The rate of future population growth and distribution The meteorological evolution of climate change The effectiveness of local and national coping and adaptation strategies

Several scholars emphasise that it must be kept in mind that migration is always due to several reasons: environmental, economical and social. When climate stresses coincide with economical and/or social stresses, potential for forced migration increases significantly. Thus, environmental processes are hard to separate from other structures. Migration is typically not the first adaptive measure for households. Only when immediate needs cannot be met and communities and governments have failed in giving assistance, people will consider migration as an option. Especially migration related to gradual climate processes requires access to money, family networks and contacts, if people have any choice. Most people displaced by climate change will look for new homes within their own home country where they have existing cultural or ethnic bonds. Intercontinental migration is likely to follow pre-existing paths and old colonial relationships.99 People’s vulnerability to environmental change reflects a combination of their exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. As a result, degree of vulnerability varies widely within countries, communities and even households. For instance, poor people’s exposure to the impacts of climate change is often higher than others because economic and political forces confine them to living in high-risk landscapes. Meanwhile, one of the most important factors shaping adaptive capacity is people’s access to and control over natural, human, social, physical, political and financial resources. Women are especially at risk as gendered roles, as well as cultural prescriptions and prohibitions, make it far more difficult for most women and female-headed households to migrate in response to environmental change.100 The problem with climate migrants is their “invisibility” in the refugee framework. The term environmental refugee is not a legal term in the sense of the 1951 Convention or the 1967 Protocol on refugee definitions. The term forced migrant has been suggested to be more appropriate as it characterises people fleeing their place of residence due to environmental stress, whether they are internally displaced or crossed international borders. There is also little international interest in extending the refugee regime to applying to environmental or climate refugees. Rather receiving states are willing to restrict the refugee regime than extend it. Despite this, the international

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Brown (2008a: 18, 27) Brown (2008a:22-24; Boano 2008: 9) 100 Warner et al (2009: 21) 99

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community will have to deal with the large-scale displacement of climate change and rethink current policies. 101 Impacts on Ethiopia As described in the previous chapter on climate change and security, Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts and to potential conflicts. These factors can increase human displacement in the future. Figure 6 presents a displacement index of current and future social unrest and thus indicates vulnerability. The index includes both refugees by country of origin as well as internally displaced people (IDPs).

Figure 6. Displacement risk index Figure 6 presents how Ethiopia has a relatively high displacement index. So far there is no modelling on the potential amount of forced migrants potentially in Ethiopia. Potential displacement depends on how climate change proceeds, political and economic situation and the availability of natural resources. As stated above climate change forced migrants tend to flee to nearby areas, foremost within the country, where there are existing cultural or ethnic bonds. However, if conflicts break out within the country in the future, this could create potential refugees. Displacement may occur also depending on events in neighbouring countries and their impacts to the regional area. Currently, forced migration in Ethiopia is classified in three categories: internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees in Ethiopia, and trafficking. Conflict-induced displacement is the most significant form of internal displacement in Ethiopia. The Ethio-Eritrean war, which erupted in May 1998, accounted for the largest number of displaced people since the current government came to power

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Boano (2008: 12; Brown 2008b: 41)

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in 1991. Over 350,000 people were displaced at the start of the war from areas along the common border of the Tigray and Afar regions. An additional 95,000 Ethiopians were deported from Eritrea, and as the conflict escalated, people residing close to the borderlines were evacuated. Droughtinduced and famine-induced displacements are chronic problems in Ethiopia and e.g. developmentinduced displacement occurs due to road construction. Relevant issues concerning IDPs include the presence of landmines, HIV/AIDS, and problems of the families of deceased soldiers. Refugees in Ethiopia - principally Somalis, Sudanese, and Eritreans – often arrive as a result of ongoing political and civil unrest in the Horn of Africa as well as natural disasters (mostly drought). Trafficking, particularly of women and young girls, is another significant form of forced migration in Ethiopia.102

Implications to Finland In 2008, 668 Ethiopians immigrated to Finland. Out of the immigrants 430 were men and 238 women. The figures include Ethiopians who have lived a year or more in Finland. The largest group of immigrants were 18-40 year old men. Overall, the amount of immigrants from Ethiopia to Finland is small in comparison to the amount of all immigrants arriving to Finland. Asylum seekers represent only a small proportion of Ethiopian immigrants as other reasons such as family, study and work immigration are more dominant.103 As mentioned in previous chapters, climate change could increase potentials of conflict and therefore create refugees and asylum seekers even to Finland. Climate change itself will not create Ethiopian immigrants to Finland as people tend to move to local areas when living conditions worsen. Already now, Ethiopia’s politicised ethnicity, where the country has been divided up into a number of self-determining ethnically defined and administrated territories, has left people less willing to migrate into regions administered by ethnic groups other than their own104. In development cooperation, actions mentioned in previous chapters are also valid in the case of human displacement. Climate processes require long-term planning in development cooperation in terms of adaptation measures and securing livelihoods. Sudden climate events may demand increasing amounts of emergency relief and humanitarian assistance from Finland and other donor countries. Both sudden and slow-onset disasters will require substantial protection and humanitarian assistance because displacement creates new, or exacerbates pre-existing vulnerabilities. Finland should support Ethiopia in reducing risks created by climate change and vulnerabilities caused by it. In addition, Finland can support Ethiopia in protecting individuals displaced by the effects of climate change. Adaptation measures should cover protection of and assistance for the displaced. Measures to mitigate and reduce risks of disasters should include measures such as disaster risk mapping, early warning systems, predetermination of evacuation routes, prepositioning of humanitarian aid, building capacities of local communities to deal with

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http://www.forcedmigration.org/browse/regional/ethiopia.htm Telephone discussion with Leena Hiljanen, Finnish Immigration Service/10.6.2009 104 Morrissey (2008: 29) 103

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disasters and their consequences, evacuations and in some cases even permanent relocations away from danger zones etc.105

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As recommended by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

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Annex II. Activities supported by the Government of Finland in the water sector106 Programme Rural Water Supply and Environment Programme (RWSEP) Phase IV

Brief Information on Ongoing and Pipeline GOF supported Water Cluster Programs Target region(s) Key outcome(s) Duration of support Amhara 1. Sustainable community schemes financed by the Community Development Fund (CDF) mechanism; 2. 07/2007 - 06/2011 (4 years) Enabling environment for community based management in all (programme) woredas; 3. Competent, efficient and responsive TA provided to strengthening Government capacity. 4. 1.2 million people served with clean potable water and improved sanitaion services 5. Institutionalized capacity at region, zone and woreda level to sustain CDF

Funds allocated (EURO) 9 MEUR grant from Finland, 1.12 MEUR from GOE and 1.15 MEUR in-cash and inkind from the participating communities.

Rural Water Supply, BenishangulSanitation and Hygiene Gumuz Programme (Beni WASH), Planning Phase (EFY 2001)

Planning Phase expected results are: (i) assess the potential for hand dug wells and spring development using 03/2008 - 06/2009 (15 CDF funding mechanism; define programme area and scope; (ii) Socio-cultural studies, (iii) Human Resources months) Development needs assessment, iv) Hydrological study completed to support technology choices and CDF applicability; (v) capacity building in pilot woredas, (vi) physical implementation piloted and 75 WPs constructed by 06/2009, and (vii) Programme Document for implementation phase prepared, appraised and approved.

Rural Water Supply, BenishangulGumuz Sanitation and Hygiene Programme (FinnWash BG), Implementation Phase

Implementation Phase expected results are: (i) all communities in target areas provided with water supply via 07/2009 - 06/2013 (4 years) 11,37 MEUR grant CDF, target figure 1000 WPs; (ii) all rural dwellers sencouraged and technically supported to reach sanitation (investment + TA) UAP; (iii) communities able to implement and manage water and sanitation facilities, including re-investment; (iv) woredas able to support communities; (v) regional bureaux able to coordinate support to woredas; (vi) donors and NGOs able to implement CDF approach in their programmes. Coordinated and enhanced capacity building support to the WASH sector 01/2009 - 12/2011 (3 years) Open

Support to Capacity Building Pooled Fund for WASH (WASH Pool)

Ethiopia

Support to WASH sectoral appoach via Water and Sanitation Programme (WSP) of The World Bank

Ethiopia

Support to Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO)

Ethiopia, Egypt and Capacity Building support to Entro Office, contributing to the efforts of the Eastern Nile countries in better Sudan management of the River Nile as expressed in “2020 Operational Vision of the eastern Nile”

ENTRO-IDEN Watershed Management Project, T&BIWRDP, Implementation Phase

Ethiopia, Amhara & GoF intends to provide financial and technical support the Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Development Benishangul Project of GoE and the World Bank. The project facilitates sustainable growth within the Tana-Beles growth Gumuz corridor, as identified in PASDEP, focusing on capacity-building, and monitoring and evaluation in the watershed management component of the project.

Sustainable Land Mangement

Amhara and Benishangul Gumuz

Identification mission was conducted in March 2008, which recommended that GoF support SLM in Ethiopia, 2009 -2012 particularly in the topic of land administration. The sector landscape has changesd somewhat since then, and GoF is currently assessing the situation based on the previous recommendations.

Supporting Poverty Reduction through Economic Growth and Rural development ENTRO-IDEN Watershed Management Project, Implementation Phase

TB Growth Corridor: Amhara and Benishangul Gumuz Sudan

GoF preparing a Concept Note concerning possible support directly to the economic growth agenda ofthe Tana Beles Growth Corridor

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Support the Regional states in the move to a sector-wide approach and the introduction of Country Level Sector Information and Monitoring Systems for the sector.

Prepared together regionally with, and a sister project to TBIWRMP; GoF is preparing a similar support to the EASTERN NILE WATERSHED MANAGEMENT PROJECT, supporting the Community Watershed Management component

2.15 MEUR grant from Finland, 0.07 MEUR from GOE and 0.037 MEUR incash and in-kind from the participating communities.

01/2008 - 12/2010 (3 years) 1.15 MEUR grant

10/2006 - 09/2009 (3 years) 1.0 MEUR in general budget support. Contribution channelled via Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF) administered by WB 2009 - 2012 5 MEUR: Financial contribution 3,5MEUR, Technical Assistance: 1,5 MEUR

20092009 - 2012

open

Implementation Status on-going

The planning phase of the program started in April 2008.The final draft of the program document is finalized, based on an extensive appraisal.

The procurement of TA consultancy finished, bilateral agreement with Ethiopia signed, commencement of work in July 2009.

The intended Capacity-Building Pooled Fund idea has not materialized, GoF is realigning its plans in order to define a feasible alternative for a sector capacity building intervention. Proposals being drafted. The implementation is on going, trust fund agreement is signed with WB . The WASH M&E Frame Work is finalized and is approved by all stakeholders on-going

Trust Fund establishment with the World Bank in final stages. Selection of TA consultancy (watershed M&E) complete. Estimated time of commencement June 2009 Preparation mission for GOF engagement complete, mission recommendations under review

Initial plan to prepare for eventual Open engagement in 2010 Maximum 9.25 MEUR; Expected date of effectiveness in 2009. TF Financial Contribution 7Meur, agreement and TA TOR being drafted. Technical Assistance: 2,25 Meur

Status May/June 2009. 58

Annex III. Climate risk screening & mainstreaming approaches & tools107 Operational agency Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Tool name Climate-FIRST (Climate Framework Integrating Risk Screening Tool)

Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA)

Climate change screening matrix http://ccs-asia.linddal.net

Department for International Development (DFID), United Kingdom

Opportunities and Risks of Climate Change and Disasters (ORCHID), and Climate Risk Impacts on Sectors and Programmes (CRISP) http://tinyurl.com/ccorchid Integrated screening

Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (DGIS)

Climate quick scans www.nlcap.net

German Technical Cooperation (GTZ)

Climate check www.gtz.de/climate-check

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) / Inter-cooperation

Community-based Risk Screening Tool – Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRiSTAL) www.iisd.org/security/es/resilience/climate_phas e2.asp

United States Agency for International Development (USAID) World Bank

SERVIR-viz climate mapper www.servir.net World Bank climate change portal, including ADAPT tool http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal

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Substantive coverage Climate risk screening software tool for rapid assessment of potential risk of projects from a number of pre-determined climate change impacts and risk factors; classification of projects into high, moderate and low risk categories. Guidance and check-list for use by field-mission representatives and Danish development partners. Climate change integrated as part of wider “environment” as a cross-cutting issue. Portfolio (ORCHID) and sector-based (CRISP) climate risk assessment methodologies.

Integrated environment, climate change and disaster risk reduction screening. Consultant-based “quick scans” of bilateral portfolios to screen them for risks and identify adaptation entry points. Climate-proofing and emission saving; ensuring that climate risks and emissions reduction potentials are taken into account for all affected or relevant development co-operation activities. Project management tool to help (a) understand the links between local livelihoods and climate; (b) assess a project's impact on livelihood resources important for climate adaptation; and (c) devise adjustments to improve a project's impact on these key livelihood resources. GIS-based information tool for environmental decision-making. Google maps-based platform representing wide range of data; the portal presents climate model outputs, historical climate observations, natural disaster data, crop yield projections and socioeconomic data.

Where and when applied? Tool / checklist in draft stage (March 2009).

Testing on sector programmes in 17 countries. Results available for Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Kenya, Mali, Nepal, Niger. ORCHID piloted on DFID bilateral portfolios in Bangladesh and India in 2007/08. CRISP piloted in Kenya in 2008.

Piloted in five programmes in India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme led work in Bangladesh, Bolivia and Ethiopia. Completed in 2007. Piloted in Morocco and India in 2008.

Field-tested on natural resources/ livelihoods projects in Bangladesh, Mali, Tanzania, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Ecuador and India. Meso-America, with current development of tools for Africa. ADAPT tested in South Asia and subSaharan Africa.

Examples of Tools and Screening Approaches for Adaptation to Climate Change. Table produced by Thomas Tanner and Anne Hammill. (October 2008). OECD 2009 59

Annex IV. List of organizations/persons consulted during the assignment Ministry of Water Resources
Mr. Fekahmed Negash, National Project Coordinator for Tana Beles IWRDP
Mr Alemayehu, Senior Watershed Expert
Mrs Semunesh Golla, Head of Hydrology Department Ministry of Agriculture
Mr Daniel Denano, Head of Sustainable Land management (SLM) secretariat Environmental Protection Authority, EPA
Mr Desalegn Deza, Environmental Protection Authority, deputy head of EPA National Meteorological Agency
Mr. Kidane Asefa, Director General
Mr. Dula Shanko, A/D/Director General Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development, Amhara
Mr. Alehegne Degnew, Tana-Beles project coordinator, Integrated watershed development and land use planning expert ENTRO (Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office)
Mr. Ahmed Khalid Eldaw, Executive director
Mr. Mohamed Elmuntasir I Ahmed, Environmental Management Specialist United Nations Development Programme
Mr Girma Hailu, UNDP Programme Manager
Ms. Kidanua Abera, CDM Programme Coordinator United Nations Environment Programme
Mr. Strike Mkanla, UNEP Representative to AU, ECA & Ethiopia
Mr. Destra Mebratu, UNEP, Chief, Industry Unit United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
Mr. Josué Dioné, Director, Food Security and sustainable Development Division, ECA
Mr. Charles Akol European Union Delegation to African Union
Ms Leda Giuffrida, Advisor, operational section
Ms. Sofia Moreira de Sousa, Political Advisor World Bank
Mr E.V. Jagannathan, Senior Water Resource Management Specialist, Tana Beles Project German Technical Cooperation GTZ
Mr. Eckhart Bode, Director Operations 60

SIDA


Ms. Annlouise Olofsson, First Secretary, Programme Officer for Rural Development

UK Embassy, Department for International Development (DFID)
Mr. Mike McCarthy ,Senior Regional Development Adviser, DFIID USAID
Mr Yacob Wondimkun Rural Water Supply and Environmental Programme in Amhara Region (RWSEP)
Mr. Elis Karsten, TA Team Leader
Mr. Muatu Ferede RWSEP Program Coordinator Technical Assistance to the Watershed Monitoring and Evaluation (WME) Component of the Tana Beles (TBIWRDP)
Mr. Veli Pohjonen, Team Leader
Ms. Mikaela Krupskopf , RWSEP Advisor Rural water supply, sanitation and hygiene programme in Benishangul Gumuz region (FinnWASH BG)
Mr. Tapio Niemi Team Leader
Mr. Minilik Wube, WASH BG Program Coordinator Mr. Mika Turpeinen
Energy consultant. Addis Ababa Mr. Tauno Pihlava
Ethiopian Evangelical Church Mekane Yesus (EECMY/DASSC)

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