Climate change scenarios for the Barents Region Jan Erik Haugen Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo Conference on Climate Change in the Barents Region, Rica Hotel, Vadsø, Sept 1-3 2009 Meteorologisk institutt met.no
Some facts as introduction... • Higher warming rate over Arctic landareas during last 2-3 decades than any other region on the earth • Sea-ice cover has decreased in the order of 10% during the same period • The Barents Sea has essentially been ice-free in the summers during the last 4 years • Observations indicate that the IPCC AR4 models underestimate the rate of heating and decrease in icecover • The climate change in the Arctic has already led to impact on the environment and on economic activities • Large variability, from year-to-year and on decadal scale • Continued warming will greatly affect ecosystems, cultures, lifestyles and economics across the Arctic Meteorologisk institutt met.no
Outline
• Sea-ice – Historical development – Results from global climate models
• Temperature, precipitation, wind, waves – Historical development and climatology – Results from simulations in the “NorACIA” and RegClim projects
• Ocean • Summary Meteorologisk institutt met.no
Seaice: What has happened since 1979 Arctic seaice coverage today
September NB Melt ponds source of measurement error during summer Source: NSIDC (The National Snow and Ice Data Center)
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September 1979-2008
• Min. i 2007
Trend: -11,7% per tiår
•
Min. during last 4 years
•
2008 first year with open Northwest and Northeast Passage
•
Trend 1979-2008: -11.7 % per decade
•
Trend 1953-2006: - 7.8 % per decade
•
NB Naturlig variability + geographical distribution Meteorologisk institutt met.no
source: NSIDC & Univ. Bremen
Seaice: What has happened since 1979 Trend in Arctic seaice coverage (sept)
Seaice: What has happened since 1979 Distribution with respect to multiyear ice
Sorce: NOAA report ”State of the Arctic”, oktober 2006, og NSIDC. Meteorologisk institutt met.no
Seaice: Observed trend and climate models (IPCC AR4) • All IPCC have a clear trend towards decreased seaice • 1979 – 2006: trend(OBS) = 2 x trend(MOD) • 2007/2008 observed = average IPCC model estimate in 2050 • Model weaknesses – Too little heat transport into the Arctic (ocean and atmosphere) – Vertical water profile
UCARMeteorologisk 2007, Steve instituttDeyo met.no
The NorACIA scenarios... • A regional climate model with spatial resolution of 25km, covers the Barents Sea. Scenarios based on the ECHAM4 model for 2021-2050 og 2071-2100 • Statistical downscaling of temperatureand precipitation scenarios from a number of IPCC-models at selected stations
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DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING FOR THE NORDIC ARCTIC A regional climate modell used in the NorACIA project ● Horizontal resolution 25 km ● Vertical reolution 31 levels Most European regional climate models do not cover Barents Region The NorACIA model had a more realistic terrain compared to previoes simulation
The seaice and ocean state was still specified from relative coarsemesh global data
Empirical – Statistical Downscaling F(x) OSLO - ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE 10.0 9.0
Temperature, deg C
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1900
1925 OBS
1950 OBS-F1
1975 OBS-F2
2000 MOD
MOD-F1
2025 MOD-F2
2050
Temperature Climatology Mean seasonal temperatures (degC) for 1961-2000 based upon a NorACIA downscaling of ERA40
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Temperature last 100 years Annual meantemperature, SvalbardAirport - Longyearbyen 0 -2 -4
T, grader C
-6
OBS filt 1 filt 2
-8 -10
+0.22 C/decade
-12 -14 1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
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Temperature last 100 years Summer
W inter 8
-4 -6 -8
6
-10
T, grader C
T, grader C
-12 -14 -16
4
-18
2
-20 -22
+0.10 deg/decade
(+0.21 deg/decade)
-24 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Spring
Autunm 0
-2 -4
-2 -6
-4
-10
T, grader C
T, grader C
-8
-12 -14
-6 -8
-16 -18
-10
+0.45 deg/decade
-20 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
+0.16 deg/decade
-12 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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Temperature 1900-2100 from empirical downscaling
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A scenario for Vardø 1900-2100
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Temperature scenarios Projected change (degC) in seasonal temperature from 1981-2010 to 2021-2050 (Global model: MPI ECHAM4 SRES: IS92a RCM: NorACIA 24 km)
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Temperature scenarios
Projected change (degC) in seasonal temperature from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 (Global model: MPI ECHAM4 SRES: B2; RCM: NorACIA 24 km)
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Precipitation climatology Mean seasonal precipitation (mm) for 1960-2000 based upon a NorACIA downscaling of ERA40
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Precipitation last 100 years Annual precipitation, SvalbardAirport - Longyearbyen 350 300 250 200
OBS filt 1 filt 2
150 100 50
+ 2 %/decade
0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Meteorologisk institutt met.no
Precipitation last 100 years 800 700 600 N y-Å lesund S valbardA irport IsfjordR adio B jø rnø ya JanM ayen H open
mm
500 400 300 200 100 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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Precipitation 1900-2100 from empirical downscaling
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Precipitation scenario Projected change (%) in seasonal precipitation from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 (Global model: MPI ECHAM4 SRES: B2; RCM: NorACIA 24 km)
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2071-2100 vs 1961-90
Change (%) Precip > 20mm/day Left: RegClim (8 mod) 50 km, Right NorACIA: 25 km Meteorologisk institutt met.no
2071-2100 vs 1961-90
Change (%): Snowfall > 10 cm/day Left: RegClim (8 mod) 50 km, Right NorACIA: 25 km Meteorologisk institutt met.no
Projections of changes in annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation Given values are indicating intervals of geographical gradients, and are not a measure for uncertainty
Annual Temp Spring (degC) Summer Autumn Winter Annual Precip Spring (%) Summer Autumn Winter
A* 1.5 - 4 1.5 - 4 1 - 1.5 2-6 2.5 - 8 10 - 20 5 - 20 0 10 - 20 10 - 40
Svalbard B* 3-8 2-6 2-4 4-8 4-8 10 - 40 10 - 40 10 - 30 10 - 40 0 - 40
ESD** 6-7 2-3 4-6 6 - 10 0 - 30 10 - 15 5 - 20 20 - 50
A* 1-2 1 - 1.5 1 1-2 1 - 2.5 0 - 10 0 - 10 0 0 10 - 20
Northern-Norway B* RegClim*** Comb**** 2.5 - 3.5 2.8 2-3 2.5 - 3.5 2.9 2-3 1-2 2.4 1.5 - 2.5 2.5 - 4 3.3 2.5 - 4 2.5 - 4.5 2.8 2.5 - 4 20 - 30 13 10 - 20 20 - 30 11 5 - 20 10 12 10 - 20 10 - 20 23 10 - 20 20 - 40 7 10 - 20
ESD** 4-7 3-4 3-7 4 - 11 5 - 20 10 - 15 5 - 20 10 - 30
A: From 1981-2010 to 2021-2050 (NorACIA-RCM) B: From 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 NorACIA-RCM RegClim: From 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 (Comb HAD + MPI (B2), RegClim-brochure, 2005) Komb: Change during 70 years [Comb, 8 AOGCMs, Haugen & Iversen (2008)] Meteorologisk institutt met.no
Wind scenarios Change (%) in max. daily windspeed from 19611990 to 2071-2100 (Global modell: MPI ECHAM4, SRES: B2; RCM: NorACIA 24 km)
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Extreme wind scenarios Projected change in occurance of wind speed with return period of 5 years (in present climate) Based on 8 RegClimscenarios with 50km grid (Haugen og Iversen, 2008)
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Wave-heigh scenarios
• Increase in the Barents Sea for average and extreme wave height • Average significant wave height winter (DJF): +2% in southern part +10% in northern part • Extreme wave height (99 percentile) +2% in Barents Sea, max +8% NE of Svalbard (Debernard og Røed 2008) Meteorologisk institutt met.no
Average sea-level increase (cm) from year 2000 to 2100 (Drange et al. 2007)
Northern Norway: +18-20 cm in 2050 and +45-65 cm in 2100 (corrected for land-rise) Drange et al.
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Summary Sea-ice extent in the Arctic • Dramatic decrease in sea-ice extent last 30 years • Decreasing areas with multi-year ice • High probability for about 10% less ice-cover per decade – Influenced by large natural variability
• Within 2050 most years will probably have a few months with ice-free (
