Climate Change and Food

Beatriz Del ValleValleCardenas

Mexico City Government

CLIMATE CHANGE EVIDENCES World temperature has increased 0.75° C. 11 of the last 12 years have been the warmest since 1850. Increase in rainfall and storms and longer droughts.

Behavioral B h i l changes h iin severall animal and vegetal species. Source: IPCC

CLIMATE CHANGE EVIDENCES Reduction of permafrost extension and ice caps on Earth’s surface Arctic ice has reduced 2.7% in the past decade

Ocean level O l lh has iincreased d 1.8 mm/year Source: IPCC

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE 21ST CENTURY

POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE PHENOMENA

IMPACT

W Warm Periods P i d

• C Crops yield i ld reduction d ti in i warmer regions

Intense Precipitation

• Crops damages • Soil erosion • Inability to sow flooded land

Droughts g

• • • •

Tropical Cyclones

• Crops damages

With consequences in food availability …

Land degradation g Less yield Crops deterioration Livestock losses

IMPACTS IN FOOD AVAILABILITY ASSOCIATED TO ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE RISE Temperature rise: +0°C

FOOD

+1°C

+2°C

+4°C

Complex and localized negative impacts over small owners, farmers and subsistence fishermen. Productivity Reduction trend on changes on all grain productivity in grains on some lower latitudes. regions In some cases, grain productivity increases on medium to high latitudes.

Source:

+3°C

+5°C

Acidity increase on oceanic water. Fishing reduction

EXAMPLES OF PLANNED ADAPTATION FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT AND GENERAL ADAPTATION MEASURES S Suggested t d Adaptation Ad t ti Measures M

• Agricultural planning. • Crop variations better adapted to soil conditions. • Preventive storage of food and grains to offset scarce crops crops. • Changes in agricultural practices . • Increase meteorological awareness to improve weather prediction.

CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS AND GENERAL ADAPTATION MEASURES Suggested adaptation measures • Consider reordering agriculture taking into account climate change effects • Climate Cli t F Forecastt analysis l i • Drought analysis • Soil recovery • Plantation of trees • Changes in agricultural practices

MEXICO CITY METROPOLITAN AREA • •

16 Districts in Mexico City 59 Councils in Estado de Mexico

3 22 50

59

21

27 7

36

45 26



Population: p 20.1 millions

58

31

48

• •

Vehicles: Industries:

3.75 millions 35,000

56

42

41

17

18

35

40

36

14



Water:

65

37

10 5

24

54

54

47

4

19

28

51

32 34

m3/s

46 1

23

13 11 30

25

57 9



Trip per day: 28.3 millions

53 43 44 2

8



Oxygen

23% less

29 6 38

20

MEXICO CITY 1.484 km2



Surface:



Conservation Soil :

59%



Population: p 8.7 millions



Homes:

2.54 millions



Vehicles:

2.47 millions



Trips per day:12 millions



Water:



Solid waste: 12 thousand tons per day

32 m3/s

ACUMULATED RAINFALL PER YEAR, MEXICO CITY CITY, 1900 1900-2006 2006 Milímetros por año 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100

19 00 19 05 19 10 19 15 19 20 19 25 19 30 19 35 19 40 19 45 19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05

0

YEAR

TEMPERATURE AVERAGE IN MEXICO CITY 1990-2007 1990 2007 Temperature (°C) 19.0

18.0

17.0

16 0 16.0

15.0

19 00 19 05 19 10 19 15 19 20 19 25 19 30 19 35 19 40 19 45 19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05

14.0

Temperature average and minimum at Tacubaya Observatory from 1900 to 2007

TEMPERATURE AVERAGE IN MEXICO CITY 1990-2007 1990 2007 Mexico City has undergone d a process off fast heating due to a great extent of urbanization and the “Heat Heat Island” Island effect, also, because of the man made global warming caused by the high GHG emissions.

• In the last thirty years, changes in Mexico City's temperature have occurred, being now, almost 2 degrees Celsius hotter than it was at the middle of the Seventies, and almost 4 degrees Celsius hotter than it was at the beginning of the last century.

MEXICO CITY GHG EMISSIONS INVENTORY 2007 México City: 37 million tons of CO2 equivalent

Comercial Public Sector 5% Rural 6% 0.5% Solid Waste 11%

Mexico City Metropolitan Area: 60 million tons of CO2 eq Transport 43%

9.1% of national emissions

Residential 13% Industry 22%

Mexico, as a country, is rated No. 12 emitter of GHG in the world and contributes with 1.5% of these emissions.

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY PROGRAMS JIERARCHY AND ADMINISTRATION, IN MEXICO CITY Mexico City’s City s General Development Program 2007-2012

Green Plan Environmental Agenda: Sector Programming 2007-2012

Air Qualityy Improve Program 2002-2010

Integral Management Program for Solid Waste 2004-2008

Sustainable Water Management for Mexico City Program, 2007-2008

Mexico City Climate Action Program 2008-2012

CLIMATE ACTION PROGRAM ADAPTATION ACTIONS RELATED TO FOOD

• Protection and recovery of native crops and flora • Soil and water conservation on agricultural land for rural development • Transgenic agriculture monitoring and fostering organic production • Soil recovery for agricultural development

PROTECTION AND RECOVERY OF NATIVE CROPS AND FLORA Benefits

Short Term 3 years

Long Term 20 years

Environmental Identification f off native species

C Consolidate native species

Social

Recovery of cultural and productive traditions

Sources of food supply sufficiency

Economic

Alternatives of employment for peasants

Creation of jobs, productive costs management and local market consolidation

SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION ON AGRICULTURAL LAND FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT Benefits

Middle Term 6 years

Long Term 20 years

Environmental

Climate regulation and modulation, biodiversity and soil protection and restoration.

Impact reduction of natural phenomena. Integral soil and water management.

Social

Increase of productive soil.

Agro-foresting development.

Economic

Familyy incomes. Productive diversity. y

TRANSGENIC AGRICULTURE MONITORING AND FOSTERING ORGANIC PRODUCTION Benefits

Middle Term 6 years

Long Term 20 years

Environmental

Identification and control of genetically modified crops.

Productive migration of transgenic crops for genetically invariant ones.

Social

Settling and protection of crops.

Defense of traditions and productive processes. Alimentary health.

Economic

Identification of investment channels and cost reduction.

Consolidate Program.

SOIL RECOVERY FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT Benefits

Short Term 3 years

Mid Term 6 years

Environmental

Plague reduction

Soil recovery, urban sprawl reduction

Social

g backyard y Fostering farming activities

Jobs creation

Economic

Family income

Th k you ffor your Thank attention ! Beatriz del ValleValle-Cardenas [email protected] Mexico City Government

www.sma.df.gob.mx