Climate Change and Food
Beatriz Del ValleValleCardenas
Mexico City Government
CLIMATE CHANGE EVIDENCES World temperature has increased 0.75° C. 11 of the last 12 years have been the warmest since 1850. Increase in rainfall and storms and longer droughts.
Behavioral B h i l changes h iin severall animal and vegetal species. Source: IPCC
CLIMATE CHANGE EVIDENCES Reduction of permafrost extension and ice caps on Earth’s surface Arctic ice has reduced 2.7% in the past decade
Ocean level O l lh has iincreased d 1.8 mm/year Source: IPCC
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE 21ST CENTURY
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE PHENOMENA
IMPACT
W Warm Periods P i d
• C Crops yield i ld reduction d ti in i warmer regions
Intense Precipitation
• Crops damages • Soil erosion • Inability to sow flooded land
Droughts g
• • • •
Tropical Cyclones
• Crops damages
With consequences in food availability …
Land degradation g Less yield Crops deterioration Livestock losses
IMPACTS IN FOOD AVAILABILITY ASSOCIATED TO ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE RISE Temperature rise: +0°C
FOOD
+1°C
+2°C
+4°C
Complex and localized negative impacts over small owners, farmers and subsistence fishermen. Productivity Reduction trend on changes on all grain productivity in grains on some lower latitudes. regions In some cases, grain productivity increases on medium to high latitudes.
Source:
+3°C
+5°C
Acidity increase on oceanic water. Fishing reduction
EXAMPLES OF PLANNED ADAPTATION FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT AND GENERAL ADAPTATION MEASURES S Suggested t d Adaptation Ad t ti Measures M
• Agricultural planning. • Crop variations better adapted to soil conditions. • Preventive storage of food and grains to offset scarce crops crops. • Changes in agricultural practices . • Increase meteorological awareness to improve weather prediction.
CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS AND GENERAL ADAPTATION MEASURES Suggested adaptation measures • Consider reordering agriculture taking into account climate change effects • Climate Cli t F Forecastt analysis l i • Drought analysis • Soil recovery • Plantation of trees • Changes in agricultural practices
MEXICO CITY METROPOLITAN AREA • •
16 Districts in Mexico City 59 Councils in Estado de Mexico
3 22 50
59
21
27 7
36
45 26
•
Population: p 20.1 millions
58
31
48
• •
Vehicles: Industries:
3.75 millions 35,000
56
42
41
17
18
35
40
36
14
•
Water:
65
37
10 5
24
54
54
47
4
19
28
51
32 34
m3/s
46 1
23
13 11 30
25
57 9
•
Trip per day: 28.3 millions
53 43 44 2
8
•
Oxygen
23% less
29 6 38
20
MEXICO CITY 1.484 km2
•
Surface:
•
Conservation Soil :
59%
•
Population: p 8.7 millions
•
Homes:
2.54 millions
•
Vehicles:
2.47 millions
•
Trips per day:12 millions
•
Water:
•
Solid waste: 12 thousand tons per day
32 m3/s
ACUMULATED RAINFALL PER YEAR, MEXICO CITY CITY, 1900 1900-2006 2006 Milímetros por año 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
19 00 19 05 19 10 19 15 19 20 19 25 19 30 19 35 19 40 19 45 19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05
0
YEAR
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE IN MEXICO CITY 1990-2007 1990 2007 Temperature (°C) 19.0
18.0
17.0
16 0 16.0
15.0
19 00 19 05 19 10 19 15 19 20 19 25 19 30 19 35 19 40 19 45 19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05
14.0
Temperature average and minimum at Tacubaya Observatory from 1900 to 2007
TEMPERATURE AVERAGE IN MEXICO CITY 1990-2007 1990 2007 Mexico City has undergone d a process off fast heating due to a great extent of urbanization and the “Heat Heat Island” Island effect, also, because of the man made global warming caused by the high GHG emissions.
• In the last thirty years, changes in Mexico City's temperature have occurred, being now, almost 2 degrees Celsius hotter than it was at the middle of the Seventies, and almost 4 degrees Celsius hotter than it was at the beginning of the last century.
MEXICO CITY GHG EMISSIONS INVENTORY 2007 México City: 37 million tons of CO2 equivalent
Comercial Public Sector 5% Rural 6% 0.5% Solid Waste 11%
Mexico City Metropolitan Area: 60 million tons of CO2 eq Transport 43%
9.1% of national emissions
Residential 13% Industry 22%
Mexico, as a country, is rated No. 12 emitter of GHG in the world and contributes with 1.5% of these emissions.
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY PROGRAMS JIERARCHY AND ADMINISTRATION, IN MEXICO CITY Mexico City’s City s General Development Program 2007-2012
Green Plan Environmental Agenda: Sector Programming 2007-2012
Air Qualityy Improve Program 2002-2010
Integral Management Program for Solid Waste 2004-2008
Sustainable Water Management for Mexico City Program, 2007-2008
Mexico City Climate Action Program 2008-2012
CLIMATE ACTION PROGRAM ADAPTATION ACTIONS RELATED TO FOOD
• Protection and recovery of native crops and flora • Soil and water conservation on agricultural land for rural development • Transgenic agriculture monitoring and fostering organic production • Soil recovery for agricultural development
PROTECTION AND RECOVERY OF NATIVE CROPS AND FLORA Benefits
Short Term 3 years
Long Term 20 years
Environmental Identification f off native species
C Consolidate native species
Social
Recovery of cultural and productive traditions
Sources of food supply sufficiency
Economic
Alternatives of employment for peasants
Creation of jobs, productive costs management and local market consolidation
SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION ON AGRICULTURAL LAND FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT Benefits
Middle Term 6 years
Long Term 20 years
Environmental
Climate regulation and modulation, biodiversity and soil protection and restoration.
Impact reduction of natural phenomena. Integral soil and water management.
Social
Increase of productive soil.
Agro-foresting development.
Economic
Familyy incomes. Productive diversity. y
TRANSGENIC AGRICULTURE MONITORING AND FOSTERING ORGANIC PRODUCTION Benefits
Middle Term 6 years
Long Term 20 years
Environmental
Identification and control of genetically modified crops.
Productive migration of transgenic crops for genetically invariant ones.
Social
Settling and protection of crops.
Defense of traditions and productive processes. Alimentary health.
Economic
Identification of investment channels and cost reduction.
Consolidate Program.
SOIL RECOVERY FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT Benefits
Short Term 3 years
Mid Term 6 years
Environmental
Plague reduction
Soil recovery, urban sprawl reduction
Social
g backyard y Fostering farming activities
Jobs creation
Economic
Family income
Th k you ffor your Thank attention ! Beatriz del ValleValle-Cardenas
[email protected] Mexico City Government
www.sma.df.gob.mx