PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT
UK, EUROPE, RUSSIA / CIS BUSINESS AVIATION MARKETS
2015
FOREWORD
INDUSTRY FORECASTS V. Western Europe..................................... 17
INDUSTRY TRENDS
V. Northern and Central Europe................ 18
V. F light Departures Across Europe 2015... 5
V. South East Europe................................. 19
V. Key Countries........................................... 6 V. R egional Flows and Full Year Trends 2014.......................................................... 7
V. Europe (Including Russia)...................... 21
V. T op Airports and Activity by Mission Profile 2014.............................................. 8 V. Activity by Aircraft Fleet Category........... 9
V. Russia/CIS.............................................. 20
SUMMER HIGH SEASON TRENDS V. Event Overview....................................... 23
V. Activity by Aircraft Segment.................. 10
V. Med Traffic............................................. 24
V. Development of Summer Season Activity.................................................... 11
V. Three Airports to Watch......................... 28
V. Busiest Days for Flight Activity 2014..... 12 V. Long-Term Trends in Flight Activity...... 13 V. Top Aircraft-Types for Europe................ 14
V. Top City Pairs......................................... 25
ABOUT THIS REPORT
V. Top European City Pairs......................... 15
2
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
FOREWORD Having founded private jet charter service Victor in the depths of the eurozone’s 2011 recession, both the company and private jet travel have come a long, long way where technology and innovation are concerned. With four years of rapid change to look back on, and more ahead, we feel now is the ideal time to share our first-ever industry report. The following pages contain new findings relevant to British, European and Russian/Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) private jet travel markets. Of particular note are the new patterns of activity around the ‘summer VIP calendar’ and encouraging wider market growth, despite some ongoing challenges and an economically turbulent few years. It is particularly exciting for me to see continued, buoyant demand for private jet travel services from the high and ultra-high net worth individual customer base that Victor serves. Perhaps this can be put down to the gradual casting aside of the traditional opaque charter-broker model and the increasing adoption of on-demand, totally flexible private jet booking technology, which proves more efficient for both passenger and operator. With Victor, we are aiming to make private jet charter quicker, easier and more transparent. Booking by phone, web or innovative app, and gaining full disclosure of pricing and aircraft details across 130 trusted partner operators, our fliers are in total control. Supported by an experienced, around-the-clock customer service team, travellers can enjoy a truly flexible, high quality alternative to fixed ownership and other methods of charter. Page 8 of this special report highlights a specific increase in private AOC/charter flights. Before I go, I’d like to offer my special thanks to WINGX Managing Director Richard Koe for his valuable contribution to this report. I hope you find it as informative and interesting as I. Clive Jackson Founder & CEO Victor flyvictor.com
3
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
INDUSTRY TRENDS 4
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
FLIGHT DEPARTURES ACROSS EUROPE 2015 (JAN-JUNE) • The countries with most leisure activity are growing, including the UK, France, Spain and Italy
IS
FI
12,7% %
--9,5% -9 9,5%
-0,4%
RU
NO
• As of July 2015, France has gained on average an extra 536 private jet departures each month
-9,0% -3,2% -3 3,2% -5,8% -5,8 8%
IE
-2,9% %
UK
BE -3,8% -3,8 8%
DK
-24,3% 24 4,3%
D
NL
PL
-2.7% -2.7 7%
9,9% 9,9
CZ
LU CH
HR
0,0% 0 ,0% ,0
3,1% 3,
-52,5% -52, 52,5% 5%
4,6% 6%
SA -8,7% -8, ,7%
RS
10,6% 1 0,6% BA
5,4% % RO
-2,0% -2 ,0%
21,8% 8%
-9,0% -9 9,0 ,0% 0%
-8,0% %
ES
BG
GR
18,7% %
TR
0,2% 0,2 ,2%
)
MA
UA
MD
HG H G
3,8% 3,8 3 ,8%
--5,5% -5,5 5%
I
--9,7% -9 9,7 7%
A
--2,8% -2,8 8%
F
PT
BY
-4,8%
--1,2% -1,2 ,2 2%
2,9% ,9
25
-7,3% -7,3 %
-4,9%
1,8%
28
-7,3% %
SE
• Austria and Switzerland are down year-to-date (YTD)
-24,4% -24 4,4% 4% %
EE
CY
1,3% 1 ,3% %
* DEPARTURES RELATE TO ALL PRIVATE JET MOVEMENTS.
5
INDUSTRY TRENDS
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
122.737
600.000
102.014
500.000
60.645
400.000
50.040
40.803
300.000
24.625
23.513
23.266
200.000
21.714
21.154
14.515
14.482
100.000
12.537
10.913
99.359
Percent of Total HGG
Ot he r[ 29 ]
Po la nd
Gr ee ce
Be lg iu m
ed en N et he rla nd s
Sw
Ru ss ia
ey rk Tu
a st Au
Sp
ai
ri
n
nd la er
N or wa y
0
itz
• Austria the seventh-largest market (3.1%)
700.000
Ita ly
• Switzerland is the fifth-largest market (6.3%)
795.097 152.780
Sw
• Germany is the second-largest market (15.4%)
800.000
UK
• In 2014, almost a fifth of private jet demand came from France (19.2%)
Departures
Ye ar To 20 tal 14 Fr an ce Ge rm an y
KEY COUNTRIES IN 2014
100,0% 19,2%
15,4%
12,8%
HG
7,6%
12,5% 6,3%
5,1%
3,1%
3,0%
2,9%
2,7%
2,7%
G
1,8%
1,8%
1,6%
1,4%
YOY Growth [ ( + / - ) departures ] 3.363
4,000
2.256
2,000
1.150
-157
-2,000
6
INDUSTRY TRENDS
-230
-290
-454 -2.697
-4,000 -6,000
-263
-5.317
1.232
257
58
0
113 -355
-3.306 -5.994
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
REGIONAL FLOWS AND FULL YEAR TRENDS 2014 SWITZERLAND
SPAIN
NORWAY
85,131
6,588
12,135
7,231
11,298
4,784
136
-1.3%
0.4%
3.6%
1.5%
1.5%
-0.4%
6,680
71,215
4,975
3,699
6,424
2,491
339
5,019
1,381
1.0%
3.0%
3.1%
3.4%
0.0%
2.0%
7.3%
0.1%
-9.3%
11,919
5,210
48,073
3,758
5,317
3,627
604
913
614
2.3%
2.4%
4.8%
7.6%
1.3%
3.4%
6.9%
-1.2%
4.6%
7,336
3,645
3,779
25,794
4,021
2,086
62
1,560
130
508
1,855
0.6%
2.2%
6.6%
-2.9%
-1.0%
2.8%
24.0%
6.1%
-9.7%
-3.2%
-4.2%
11,431
6,576
5,304
4,008
7,897
1,975
108
1,723
351
344
1,551
829
881
317
386
2.5%
0.9%
-1.2%
-1.7%
-1.4%
-1.6%
-8.5%
-2.2%
10.0%
-15.9%
-6.0%
2.9%
-2.1%
-10.5%
-32.4%
4,827
2,372
3,724
2,036
1,939
17,338
106
554
141
156
642
466
590
99
95
1.1%
1.7%
5.1%
0.9%
-2.8%
4.3%
8.2%
12.1%
-4.1%
-6.6%
1.9%
11.2%
11.5%
-4.8%
-24.6%
116
73
19,703
46
867
18
89
81
57
27
13
-8.8%
-1.8%
-9.8%
2.0%
100.0%
-8.2%
26.6%
14.0%
-10.0%
-27.8%
1,605
3,177
555
503
8.0%
-1.2%
1.6%
-36.4%
790
1,951
2,441
1,376
1,529
450
-3.2%
-3.7%
2.1%
-4.4%
4.3%
-27.1%
553
1,617
1,925
1,591
283
285
8.2%
0.7%
0.7%
4.1%
1.4%
-26.2%
419
555
304
19.0%
-11.1%
POLAND
3,205 -6.0%
BELGIUM
NETHERLANDS
646 7.7%
TURKEY
399 9.9%
SWEDEN
1,498 -0.3%
AUSTRIA
RUSSIA
UKRAINE
ITALY
ORIGIN
• There were 6,576 flights between Switzerland and Germany, up 1%
UK
• Intra-UK has much lower activity (48,000) but was up 5% last year
France Flights Germany Flights UK Flights Italy Flights Switzerland Flights Spain Flights Norway Flights Austria Flights Sweden Flights Turkey Flights Russia Flights Netherlands Flights Belgium Flights Poland Flights Ukraine Flights
GERMANY
• France has the most intra-country travel, with 85,000 flights last year alone
FRANCE
DESTINATION
334 -41.6%
139
345
559
55
-7.3%
2.7%
5.9%
31.0%
1,531
5,093
890
1,609
1,714
540
36
5,578
92
221
980
275
234
343
411
-4.6%
1.4%
-3.1%
5.0%
-5.4%
13.7%
2.9%
-6.4%
-14.8%
1.4%
11.9%
5.0%
-4.1%
-10.2%
-18.6%
396
1,461
617
123
339
108
883
95
13,866
25
146
138
106
187
13
16.1%
-4.3%
7.3%
-10.2%
7.3%
-10.7%
-1.0%
-24.0%
-3.6%
-10.7%
-5.8%
15.0%
-17.2%
-3.6%
-27.8%
637
752
602
551
318
159
18
231
47
13,541
1,113
85
70
53
310
2.2%
6.2%
7.5%
-3.0%
-16.3%
-10.2%
50.0%
0.4%
27.0%
-11.6%
-47.2%
-2.3%
34.6%
-7.0%
-27.7%
3,121
1,978
1,556
1,847
1,509
640
107
926
178
1,118
29
170
137
272
1,336
-3.7%
-0.7%
-1.1%
-2.2%
-7.6%
2.9%
-1.8%
0.9%
6.6%
-47.5%
-63.3%
-14.6%
7.9%
-9.6%
-49.5%
1,556
2,557
1,930
430
827
449
82
287
155
57
148
3,343
920
119
27
3.1%
3.1%
-0.6%
18.1%
2.9%
22.3%
26.2%
-1.4%
26.0%
-5.0%
-20.4%
-1.8%
-5.3%
15.5%
-42.6%
3,322
1,443
1,605
560
946
554
60
238
106
50
0.7%
-4.0%
5.7%
-8.2%
6.4%
9.9%
15.4%
-5.6%
-6.2%
531
1,655
296
281
330
97
24
364
192
41
219
-0.9%
4.0%
6.1%
-6.6%
-6.8%
1.0%
-17.2%
-6.7%
-0.5%
-33.9%
-12.0%
132
892
2,784
126
22
8.2%
-7.5%
-8.2%
-2.3%
-57.7%
124
135
4,892
156
24.0%
6.3%
4.8%
-33.3%
474
452
276
324
362
93
15
442
13
317
1,320
20
25
179
5,004
-38.1%
-31.8%
-33.2%
-43.6%
-35.6%
-30.1%
7.1%
-12.5%
-18.8%
-25.2%
-48.1%
-52.4%
-57.6%
-23.5%
-47.4%
*ALL PRIVATE JET TRAVEL. 7
INDUSTRY TRENDS
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
TOP AIRPORTS AND ACTIVITY BY MISSION PROFILE 2014 • In 2014 AOC/charter flights grew, whilst private flights declined • The busiest 10 airports in Europe are roughly 60:40 commercial vs. AOC/charter versus private •O ut of Geneva: - Charter flights were up 4% - Private flights fell 12%
Le Bourget
44%
Geneva
47%
Nice Cote D’Azur
56% 53%
40%
Luton
53%
Zurich
55%
45%
59%
11.248
Linate
43%
57%
10.155
Ciampino
54%
46% 41%
59%
7.971
Munchen
40%
60%
6.854
Stuttgart
40%
Biggin Hill Barajas London Oxford
6.623
60% 41% 57%
43%
44%
56% 72%
28%
Northolt
31%
69%
5.210
31%
69%
5.137
Zhuliany
57%
43%
Private
AOC/charter
4.943
-1,7%
0,9% 7,2%
8,5%
9,5%
-3,5%
1,2%
4,9% 3,1%
-0,9%
-4,0%
-7,3%
0,2%
6,0%
-5,1%
-1,6%
1,0%
-9,1%
1,9%
11,1%
-5,4%
-3,0%
0,6%
-11,0%
0,0%
10,2% 11,7%
7,7%
2,9%
21,3%
9,6%
5,6%
-3,6%
10,4% 2,3%
7,6%
2,8%
-10,1% -29,2%
-1,9%
3,3%
5.694
Vaclav Havel
6,2%
9,1%
-4,7%
5.794
0,6%
6,1%
-9,0%
5.282
82%
18%
5.874
2,0% -3,8%
4,2% 3,1%
6.453
YOY Growth Total
2,9%
-6,6%
8.672
Vienna Schwechat
59%
0,9%
12.050
41%
YOY Growth AOC/charter
-11,5%
13.859
Farnborough
Schoenefeld
INDUSTRY TRENDS
17.742
12.379
60%
40%
25.593 15.737
60%
47%
Vnukovo
Mandelieu
8
YOY Growth Private
Total Departures Top 20 Airports (Year 2014)
0,4% -32,0%
2,7% -3,1% -30,9% Low
High
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
ACTIVITY BY AIRCRAFT FLEET CATEGORY A snapshot from May 2015 shows: • Most private jet activity was business jet (60%) • The rest was turboprop and piston (40%) • At the start of the summer season, private jet activity was 2% down on last year
Departures May 2015 Private
Business Jet
Business Turboprop
Business Piston
Total
42,7%
AOC/charter
57,5%
59,0%
80,0%
53,3%
Market Share
44.328
41,0%
60,0%
14.642
20,0%
20,0% 14.466
20,0%
46,7%
73.436
YOY: Private
YOY: AOC/charter
-1/3%
-2,0
-1/4%
-1,7%
1,5%
5,4%
100,0%
0,6%
YOY: Total
-0,2%
13,9%
0,8%
9,8%
0,7%
100%
9
INDUSTRY TRENDS
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
ACTIVITY BY AIRCRAFT SEGMENT The most frequently used private jets in Europe are: • Light (capacity: 4-8 passengers) • Heavy (capacity: 12-15 passengers) • During the past 12 months, ULR flights have risen 8%
AC Segment - Avg Seats
Private Departures May 2015
Bizliner* (22+)
-20.7%
322
Ultra Long Range (15-17)
Midsize Jet (9-10)
3,785
Very Light Jet (4-5)
-5.9%
-10.4%
6,008 9,528
-0.9%
2,642
2.4%
3,207
2.2% 14,642
Piston** (4-16)
14,466
-3.8%
-3.2% -6.3%
-3.4%
-2.0%
-3.1%
-2.9%
-2.0%
-4.9%
-0.6%
-0.2%
73,436
8.1% -5.6%
-13.0% 0.1%
Turboprop (4-16)
Total
4.0%
7.9%
4,559
Light Jet (4-8) Entry Level Jets** (4-5)
-6.8%
Last 12 Months
-35.7%
2.8% 8,699
Super Light Jet (9-10)
YTD Growth
-4.9%
5,574
Heavy Jet (12-15) Super Midsize Jet (10-11)
YOY Growth
5.4% 0.8%
9.8% 0.7%
1.5% -1.9%
2.1% -0.3% -1.2%
* Only Airbus A318 Elite , Airbus A319, and BBJ3 are considered ** Entry Level jets comprise older light jet types such as Citation I and CJ1 *** Only 2 engine piston aircraft are considered
10 INDUSTRY TRENDS
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
DEVELOPMENT OF SUMMER SEASON ACTIVITY 2006-2014 • 2014’s peak season totalled 61,831 departures (down 2.5% on the previous year) • 2014 saw the least activity since 2010 (63,530) • 2014 was on a similar level with 2006 (59,070) • 2014 was 8% below the August peak in 2008 (67,426)
Departures per Month 0 2006
66,491
2008
67,426
2009
YOY Growth 12,0%
59,070
2007
12,6%
1,4%
-10,7%
60,230
2010
63,530
2011
64,396
2012
63,053
2013
63,439
2014
11 INDUSTRY TRENDS
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
61,381
5,5%
-8.3%
1,4%
-2,1%
0,6%
-2,5%
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
BUSIEST DAYS FOR FLIGHT ACTIVITY 2014 23rd May Monaco Grand Prix 2,221 Flights 20th June 2,160 Flights 27th June 2,319 Flights
23/05/2014
20/06/2014
27/06/2014
2.221
2.160
2.319
Departures 2014 2.400 2.200 2.000 1.800 1.600 1.400
0 1.447
1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 1/1/2014
12 INDUSTRY TRENDS
31/12/2014
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
LONG-TERM TRENDS IN FLIGHT ACTIVITY • High season summer demand peaked in July 2014 with a 83% increase in departures (77,000) • The 2014 winter low was 42,000 • Growth since the 2008 Eurozone recession can be seen in the Growth Corridor.
Departures per Month 80.000 85.000 75.000 70.000 65.000 60.000 55.000 50.000 45.000 40.000 35.000 2005
2006
2007
2008
Inc. Seasonal Variation
2009
Excl. Seasonal Variation
Growth Path 2006-2008
13 INDUSTRY TRENDS
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
6 Month Rolling Average
Recovery Corridor
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
TOP AIRCRAFT-TYPES FOR EUROPE 2014
Departures 2014
• The King Air 200 was the most popular private jet in Europe for 2014 (more than 50,000 departures)
50.000
• The jet with most growth in departures was the Falcon 7X (10% increase)
55.000 BEECH Super King Air 200
45.000
CESSNA Cessna Excel/XLS
HAWKER BEECHCRAFT 700-900
40.000
DASSAULT Falcon 2000
35.000
CESSNA CitationJet/CJ1
CESSNA Citation C12
30.000 25.000
10.000
DASSAULT Falcon 900
-6,0%
-4,0%
BOMBARDIER Global Express
BOMBARDIER Challenger 300
5.000
-8,0%
39,6%
Top 15 Aircraft Other
BOMBARDIER Challenger 600 Series
CESSNA Citation II/Bravo
0 -10,0%
60,4%
PILATUS PC-12
GULFSTREAM V/G500
20.000 15.000
CESSNA Citation Mustang
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
10,0%
DASSAULT Falcon F7X
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
YOY Growth 18,0%
YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH Note: Only Jets and TurboProp are considered
14 INDUSTRY TRENDS
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
TOP EUROPEAN CITY PAIRS
Flights 2014
During 2014, the busiest private jet connection by far was Paris-Le Bourget (France)-Geneva Cointrin International (Switzerland). Vnukovo International (Russia)-Nice-Cote d’Azur (France) also features as a top pair, with some growth (4%) despite the repercussions of the Ukraine crisis.
GENEVA COINTRIN INTERNATIONAL - PARIS-LE BOURGET NICE-CÔTE D’AZUR - VNUKOVO INTERNATIONAL CIAMPINO–G. B. PASTINE INTERNATIONAL - LINATE VNUKOVO INTERNATIONAL - NICE-CÔTE D’AZUR PARIS-LE BOURGET - NICE-CÔTE D’AZUR NICE-CÔTE D’AZUR - PARIS-LE BOURGET
LONDON LUTON - PARIS-LE BOURGET PARIS-LE BOURGET - LONDON LUTON Vnukovo International
PARIS-LE BOURGET - FARNBOROUGH NICE-CÔTE D’AZUR - LONDON LUTON FARNBOROUGH - PARIS-LE BOURGET NICE-CÔTE D’AZUR - FARNBOROUGH ADOLFO SUÁREZ MADRID–BARAJAS - R T LEBLANC
London Luton Farnborough
LONDON LUTON - NICE-CÔTE D’AZUR FARNBOROUGH - GENEVA COINTRIN INTERNATIONAL
Paris-Le Bourget
FARNBOROUGH - NICE-CÔTE D’AZUR PARIS-LE BOURGET - LINATE
Zürich
LINATE - PARIS-LE BOURGET Bordeaux-Mérignac
Linate
Geneva Cointrin International
Sabiha Gökçen International
Nice-Côte d'Azur Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas
R T Leblanc
Ciampino–G. B. Pastine International
Atatürk International
GENEVA COINTRIN INTERNATIONAL - FARNBOROUGH R T LEBLANC - ADOLFO SUÁREZ MADRID–BARAJAS GENEVA COINTRIN INTERNATIONAL- ZÜRICH
Esenboga International
ESENBOĞA INTERNATIONAL - ATATÜRK INTERNATIONAL ATATÜRK INTERNATIONAL - ESENBOĞA INTERNATIONAL LONDON LUTON - GENEVA COINTRIN INTERNATIONAL PARIS-LE BOURGET - BORDEAUX-MÉRIGNAC ESENBOĞA INTERNATIONAL - SABIHA GÖKÇEN INTERNATIONAL
15 INDUSTRY TRENDS
1.182 1.159 1.123 1.113 1.059 1.041
LINATE AIRPORT- CIAMPINO–G. B. PASTINE INTERNATIONAL
NICE-CÔTE D’AZUR - GENEVA COINTRIN INTERNATIONAL
TOP 30 CITY PAIRS - 2014
1.888 1.868
PARIS-LE BOURGET - GENEVA COINTRIN INTERNATIONAL
GENEVA COINTRIN INTERNATIONAL - NICE-CÔTE D’AZUR
BUSINESS JET ONLY
+/-
-257
42
-256
41 87 79
-117 -131
821 799 700 658 639 572 571 561 546 546 546 537 527 526 507 503 491 4,3% 480 469 469 447 438
173 143
53 64 42 71 42 80 56 -1 37 59 -19 -3 -6 11 -66 -107 -115
95,7%
-35 Top 30 Pairs
Other
45 22
YOY: Growth (in %) 10,1 8,5 -17,9 3,8 -18,6 3,8 9,0 8,2 -12,5 -14,1 8,2 10,8 7,0 14,2 7,9 16,6 11,4 -0,2 7,3 12,3 -3,5 -0,6 -1,2 2,2 -11,8 -18,2 -19,7 -6,9 11,2 5,3
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
INDUSTRY FORECASTS 16
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
WESTERN EUROPE UK and Ireland growth continues; and private jet travel is resilient in France despite a weak economy. Total Western Europe YOY: 2.8% Opportunities: •W estern Europe – London in particular – retains the largest and fastest-growing population of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) •S ustained recovery and jobs-creation in UK and Ireland •W estern Europe is a world-leader in UHNWI property and tourism •A weak Euro (EUR) is supporting export markets, with cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity at an all-time high, evident in ULR jet connections between UK and Africa, Middle East and Asia •C ost of private jet travel operations easing alongside a diminished fuel price
•M iddle East and CIS trade is particularly affected by geopolitical issues •B uyer intentions shifting towards lighter aircraft
Challenges: •F rance’s economy is ‘in a rut’ and UK growth is slowing. 2017 UK-EU referendum may slow investment and limit M&A •M uch of Western Europe has no more than a low growth trend with downside risk of further macroeconomic shocks •C orporate private jet users are cautious given an uncertain climate and an outdated preconception of the ‘expense’ and ‘excess’ of private jet travel •N et effect of oil prices appears to be negative for large aircraft users (regarding income-exposure to oil)
17 INDUSTRY FORECASTS
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL EUROPE Germany and Austria are in slow recovery mode, Scandinavia is strong and Switzerland slackening. Total Northern and Central Europe YOY: 1.5% Opportunities: •I mproved Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) outlook in Germany could herald recovery, after a poor first quarter (Q1 2015) •R obust growth in Poland •A weak EUR and falling oil prices will support German corporate exports and associated private jet travel •S candinavian economic growth forecasts upgraded •E xport orientation of Germany in particular requires direct links to extra-Euro destinations, an important private jet travel requirement (note Germany’s corporate fleet profile: heavy, large-cabin)
usage, with consequence for overall uplift trend •T here is some resurgence in light aircraft usage. Scandinavia’s increased activity in particular is largely light and turboprop
•A weak EUR is likely to spur more intercontinental tourism, for example from China, Middle East and US, drawing in larger-cabin aircraft Challenges: •T he Ukraine crisis is largely unresolved, with sanctions unlikely to lift. Germany is most exposed to impact on trade with CIS •S wiss franc (CHF) appreciation in Switzerland has set the economy back and had a direct impact on private jet travel, which stalled January-February 2015 •A ny impact on CIS trading links has direct repercussions for larger aircraft
18 INDUSTRY FORECASTS
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
SOUTHERN EUROPE Growth is sustained in Spain, but weak in Greece, Turkey and Italy. Total South East Europe YOY: 1.0% Opportunities: •S pain continuing to recover from recession, with International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2015 of 2.5%, versus 1.4% in 2014. Spain had leading Eurozone PMI for Q1 2015 •O ther smaller economies are in recovery mode, including Poland, Czech Republic and Israel •T here is modest recovery occurring in Italy, remaining an important UHNWI market •A weak EUR will bring in more travel and tourism from the Middle East and Asia, typically large-cabin aircraft •I beria recovery will galvanise South American connections
•E urozone members’ increasingly left-wing agenda may hamper corporate use of aircraft •A weak EUR further undermines purchasing power for new aircraft •W here there are signs of recovery, most apply to light-jet use
•T urkey, in particular, favours heavy jet usage. Latest data suggests GDP recovery Challenges: •E astern Europe experiences the greatest impact from Ukraine crisis. A number of countries (including Turkey) also have high risk from exposure to US Dollar (USD) fluctuations •T urkey PMI at six-year low April-May 2015
19 INDUSTRY FORECASTS
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
RUSSIA/CIS There’s recession in Russia; Ukraine’s near-bankrupt; and there’s negative spillover for CIS. Total Russia/CIS YOY: -25% Opportunities: •S till a chance that ceasefire with Ukraine holds and relations with Russia improve. Some Q1 2015 recovery in Russian Ruble (RUB), as well as oil price (though reversed in Q2) •M any UHNWIs are largely unsanctioned and still need aircraft to support their lifestyle. Med resorts should still get a big share of visitors from Vnukovo International (Russia) •I t is evident from city pair activity that some private jet connections between Russia and Europe are little-affected. For example Austria (where many Russian jets are registered). The large majority are heavy jets •M ore trade links with Asia and use of large aircraft Challenges: •U kraine situation uncertain with ongoing conflict possible in near future. •R ussia is currently in recession, with sanctions and low oil compounding alreadypresent structural weakness •T he predominant share of CIS regional fleet and activity is comprised of large jets – those most affected by any economic downturn •L arge aircraft users are typically most exposed to oil and commodity price-falls •B usiness jet purchasing power is undermined by depreciation 20 INDUSTRY FORECASTS
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
EUROPE (INCLUDING RUSSIA) There is cyclical recovery, but weak growth, due to a ‘cautious customer’ and CIS impact. Total Europe (including Russia) YOY: 0.5% Opportunities: •S light upgrade to Eurozone economic growth so far in 2015, with a handful of stronger economies meaning pick-up in private jet activity for Spain, UK and potentially Germany •L ikely continuation of a weak EUR, easing of fiscal austerity, support of European Central Bank (ECB) programme, strong stock market and a spike in M&A activity: all pointing to wealth-creation private jet activity •O il price-fall has freed up disposable income and lowered operating costs. Light jet owners get a relatively bigger boost •A fter long-stagnating, customer interest in mid-size and light aircraft has increased over the last 12 months •A strong US market and weak EUR should support transatlantic connections in particular Challenges: •L ong-overdue economic recovery in Europe is rather weak, and is lauded despite continued high levels of unemployment •G lobal uncertainty following China’s devaluation of Yuan Renmibi (CNY/RMB)
21 INDUSTRY FORECASTS
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
SUMMER HIGH SEASON TRENDS 22
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
Top Three Late-Summer Events September 2015
EVENT OVERVIEW Summer Events and Spikes in Flight Frequency In summer 2015, some smaller airports saw over 100% increase in all private jet arrivals and departures.
Monaco Yacht Show | Nice-Cote d’Azur (France) • 151.4% spike in flights through Nice’s airport (+60 per day) •F liers from France and UK provided 31% of demand
Events to be noted for their high levels of activity include:
•4 0% of arrivals were large-cabin jets
TOUR DE FRANCE FINISH JULY 2015
Monza Grand Prix | Linate (Italy)
Paris Le Bourget: 25.2% Up 17 per day to 83
• 81.3% more flights at Milan’s airport (+22 per day) • 40% of traffic is Italy-domestic
WIMBLEDON JUNE-JULY 2015
•F alcon 2000 was the most popular jet during this event, responsible for one-in-ten (10%) flights
London Northolt: 113% Up 13 per day to 25 TARS OF THE WHITE NIGHTS S JULY-AUGUST 2015
St Petersburg: 292% Up 19 per day to 25
23 SUMMER HIGH SEASON TRENDS
Venice Film Festival | Venice Marco Polo (Italy) 25%
113%
292%
Tour de France
Wimbledon
St Petersburg
•1 58.1% spike in flights through Tessera’s airport (+12 per day) •5 0% of arrivals are from Italy, France and UK •T he super-light Cessna XLS was the most-used aircraft type
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
MED TRAFFIC Top Airports June-August 2015
Top Aircraft June - August 2015 CESSNA XLS
Nice-Cote d’Azur, France • 13,250 flights • -1.4% year-on-year (YOY) • 23,025 passengers
16,563 departures 10% of total summer activity HAWKER BEECHCRAFT 700-900
• Indicative fare of over €141 million
11,305 departures 6.8% of total summer activity
Olbia Costa Smeralda, Italy
DASSAULT FALCON 2000
• 6,220 flights • +2.3% YOY • 10,251 passengers • Indicative of fare of over €52 million
Ibiza, Spain • 5,634 flights •+ 8.7% YOY •8 ,295 passengers • Indicative of fare of over €41 million
24 SUMMER HIGH SEASON TRENDS
6,400 departures 4% of total summer activity BOMBARDIER CHALLENGER 600
8,515 departures 5.1% of total summer activity BOMBARDIER GLOBAL EXPRESS
5,977 departures 3.6% of total summer activity
Cessna XLS
10%
Hawker Beechcraft 700-900
6.8%
Dassault Falcon 2000
4%
Bombardier Challenger 600
5.1%
Bombardier Global Express
3.6%
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
TOP CITY PAIRS Geneva and the Med 2014-2015 Geneva-Nice is the most popular of Geneva’s summer connections, attracting 1,842 flights per year. Other highly-frequented connections are Cannes (615), Ibiza (293), Olbia (289) and La Mole (246). 1. G eneva Cointrin International (Switzerland)-Nice-Cote d’Azur (France) The May-September summer season captures 46% of traffic between Geneva and Nice. May is boosted by Monaco Grand Prix. The highest peaks are in July and August, with 230 flights in each of these months. 2. G eneva Cointrin International (Switzerland)-Cannes-Mandelieu (France) Flights peak in May, with 87 flights (14% of total) and strong demand for both Cannes Film Festival and Monaco Grand Prix. There is also a late season peak in September (75 flights). 3. Geneva Cointrin International (Switzerland)-Ibiza (Spain) Ibiza is the second-busiest summer connection from Geneva, with more than two flights per day in August (65 flights). Even in October there is significant demand (20 flights). 4. G eneva Cointrin International (Switzerland)-Olbia Costa Smeralda (Italy) Olbia has a shorter season than Ibiza in terms of Geneva connections. August experiences very high activity, with over three flights per day (103 total). 5 G eneva Cointrin International (Switzerland)-La Mole (France) La Mole arrivals from Geneva increase fast in early summer, peaking in July (53 flights). The frequency drops in August (35 flights), then sees late season growth September-October.
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PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
TOP CITY PAIRS Istanbul and the Med 2014/2015 Istanbul has increasing demand for private jet travel, with the principal leisure destinations being Bodrum and Dalaman for domestic flights (648 and 237 per year respectively) and Nice for international flights (106). 1. A taturk International (Turkey)-Milas Bodrum International (Turkey)
Bodrum has a very busy summer peak in August, with 151 flights. By September the summer season for jet-setters slows (57 flights).
2. Ataturk International (Turkey)-Dalaman International (Turkey)
Nearby, Dalaman sees a peak in arrivals from Istanbul in June (53 flights) then becomes quiet until August and September, which are relatively busy (43 and 38 flights respectively).
3. Ataturk International (Turkey)-Nice-Cote d’Azur (France)
The Monaco Grand Prix attracts jet-setters from Istanbul in May (13 flights). The two peak months for flights from Istanbul to Nice are August and September (20 and 17 flights respectively).
4. Fast Facts:
Norwegians + Turks are Europe’s emerging jetsetters in 2014/2015. 1. Norway - Turkey (100% Flight Increase) 2. Turkey - Belgium (35% Flight Increase) 3. Norway - Italy (31% Flight Increase)
26 SUMMER HIGH SEASON TRENDS
PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
TOP CITY PAIRS 2014-2015 London and the Med Luton and Farnborough generate the most connections with the Med. Nice is a top destination, drawing 2,965 movements from London’s top four private jet airports. Ibiza and Cannes follow with 271 and 262 flights respectively. 1. L ondon Luton (UK)-Nice-Cote d’Azur (France)
The Monaco Grand Prix is an obvious draw in May, generating 164 flights. The height of the season is July (181 flights), with August and September also popular (130 and 124 flights respectively).
2. L ondon Luton (UK)-Ibiza (Spain)
Ibiza now provides a long summer season for London’s VIP tourists departing from Luton, with over 30 flights per month May-September, and 60 in August.
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PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
THREE AIRPORTS TO WATCH FOR 2016 Based on 2015 movement, these three airports stand as key hubs for private travel next summer.
Ibiza | Spain
Palma De Mallorca | Spain
Olbia Costa Smeralda | Italy
Overview
Ibiza private jet movements peak at 2,177 in August, equivalent to 70 daily arrivals and departures. The June-August period generates about 55% of total annual traffic.
Majorca experiences less activity than Ibiza, peaking at 1,541 flights for August, but has a longer season, with around 500 flights in March and again in November.
In August, Olbia is the second-busiest Med airport in Europe (behind Nice). After a peak in August (2,834 flights), there’s a big drop-off in September (820 flights).
Top Aircraft Segments
ight jets account for a fifth (20.9%) of activity L in Ibiza during the summer season. There are 788 ultra-long range (ULR) aircraft arrivals and departures, highlighting Ibiza’s increasing VIP status.
Majorca gets a relatively high number of turboprop arrivals (1,655 flights), and over a quarter (25.1%) of activity is light jet. Compared to Ibiza, fewer of Majorca’s visitors arrive in large-cabin aircraft.
More than one third (34%) of Olbia’s private jet visitors arrive in heavy jets, compared with 22% for Ibiza and 18% for Majorca. 13% of Olbia arrivals are in ULR jets.
Top Aircraft Types
Cessna XLS is the ‘workhorse’ for Ibiza’s VIP customers, accounting for 1,013 flights. The Mustang is also popular (735 flights). The most popular ULR jet is the Gulfstream V/550 (208 flights).
The King Air 200 drives most of the turboprop traffic (1,043 flights). Older light-cabin jets such as Cessna Citation CJ1 and CJ2 are also popular (398 and 664 flights respectively). The super mid-size Falcon 2000 jet flies in regularly (419 flights).
Several ULR aircraft-types feature in the top 20 touching down in Olbia: Bombardier Global Express (358 flights), Gulfstream V/G550 (350 flights) and Falcon 7X (186 flights). Piaggio Avanti is the most popular turboprop (270 flights).
Top Connections
Palma De Mallorca (Spain) generates 676 flights to-and-from Ibiza. The second-busiest connection is Barcelona International (Spain) (492 flights). Vnukovo International (Russia) stands out as the longest route, flown 114 times during the year.
There is a significant amount of Spanish islandhopping, with Ibiza and Menorca the busiest Majorca connections (689 and 670 flights respectively). Zurich (Switzerland) is the busiest connection outside Spain (258 flights).
Vnukovo International (Russia) is the third most popular connection with Olbia, with over 400 flights per year. Nice-Cote d’Azur (France) and Linate (Italy) bring the largest numbers of ‘local’ visitors (597 and 586 flights respectively).
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PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015
ABOUT THIS REPORT
ABOUT VICTOR
The Victor Private Jet Travel Report 2015 is a business aviation (private jet travel) industry report, based on research conducted by WINGX Advance.
Victor is revolutionising the world of private jet charter to make comparing, booking and managing flight simpler, faster and more enjoyable than ever before.
Report findings are based on data drawn from national private jet travel associations, Eurocontrol, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), covering 50 European, Middle Eastern and North African national territories. The data covers all types of private (owner) and commercial Air Operator’s Certificate (AOC) flights (AOC flights include charter and special mission activity such as medical flights, and exclude maintenance and training flights).
Membership is free – there are no hidden costs or surcharges. Victor delivers at least three charter quotes within 60 minutes, so that members can compare the best aircraft, operators and prices. Victor’s unique combination of smart technology, transparency and exceptional customer service provided by a dedicated 24/7 team means that its 45,000-plus members, with access to 7,000 aircraft – via a network of 131 partner operators – are always connected and in control. Victor has achieved three-year average sales growth of 142.93% per annum, ranked number 15 in the 2015 Sunday Times Hiscox Tech Track 100, and in 2013 was honoured at the Walpole British Luxury Awards as the ‘Brand of Tomorrow’ and won TTG’s ‘Leading Edge’ Award.
Flight activity analysis pertains to all Instrument Flight Rules (IFR)-registered flights, within Eurocontrol territories and between Eurocontrol territories and the rest of the world. Analysis covers all single and multi-engine aircraft categories – business jets, turboprops and pistons – equating to over 300 aircraft-types. Coverage of jet-types used by commercial airlines is not comprehensive, but does capture, for example, Embraer Legacy (ERJ135) Bombardier 850 (CRJ200), A318 Elite, Airbus 319 and BBJ3 flights.
www.flyvictor.com
Jet aircraft activity is segmented by cabin/range capability: airline (bizliner), ultralong range (ULR), heavy, super mid-size, mid-size, super light, light, entry-level, and very light.
MWWPR (London) |
[email protected] | +44(0)20 7046 6080
For further information please contact:
Aircraft use is measured by number of flight departures and the related number of flight hours. Analysis does not include over-flights. It does include arrival flights from all global International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) regions into Europe.
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PRIVATE JET TRAVEL REPORT 2015