Chart Collection for Morning Briefing Yardeni Research, Inc.
November 17, 2016
Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683
[email protected]
Mali Quintana 480-664-1333
[email protected]
Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Figure 1. 3.2
3.2
QUITS
(millions, sa)
Sep
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
yardeni.com 2002
2003
1.6 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 2. 7
7
QUITS RATES BY INDUSTRY
Total Private (2.3) Construction (1.7) Manufacturing (1.2) Trade, Transporation, & Utilities (2.5) Professional & Business Services (3.0) Education & Health Services (1.7) Leisure & Hospitality (4.3)
(percent, sa) 6
5
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
2 Sep
1
0
1
yardeni.com 2001
2002
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 1 / November 17, 2016 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Figure 3. 7
7
ATLANTA FED’S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER (yearly percent change)
6
6
Job Stayer (3.6) Job Switcher (4.4)
5
5 Oct
4
4 Oct
3
3
2
2
yardeni.com
1 97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1
18
* Three-month moving average of median wage growth. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Figure 4. 6.2 5.8
6.2
ATLANTA FED’S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER* (yearly percent change)
5.8
Wage Growth Tracker
5.4
5.4
Overall (3.9)
5.0
5.0
Average Hourly Earnings
4.6
4.6
Production & Nonsupervisory Workers (2.4)
4.2
4.2 Oct
3.8
3.8
3.4
3.4
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.6 Oct
2.2
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.4
1.4 yardeni.com
1.0 97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1.0
18
* Three-month moving average of median wage growth. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
Page 2 / November 17, 2016 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Figure 5. 140
2.8
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX & QUITS RATE
2.6
Consumer Optimism Index* (1985=100) (92.9)
120
2.4 Sep 2.2
Quits Rate (percent, sa) (2.3)
100
2.0 80
1.8 1.6
60 1.4 40
1.2 2002
110
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 2.8
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX & QUITS RATE
2.6
Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1 1966=100) (91.6)
100
2.4 Nov
90
2.2
Quits Rate (percent, sa) (2.3) 80
2.0 1.8
70 1.6 60 1.4 50
1.2 2002
150
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017 2.8
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & QUITS RATE
2.6
Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) (98.6)
2.4 Sep Oct
100
Quits Rate (percent, sa) (2.3)
2.2 2.0 1.8
50 1.6 1.4 yardeni.com
0 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1.2
2017
*Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Conference Board, and the University of Michigan.
Page 3 / November 17, 2016 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Figure 6. 5.8 5.7
YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & RETAIL SALES EXCLUDING GASOLINE
5.6
(trillion dollars, saar)
5.2 Oct
5.1 5.0
5.5
4.9
YRI Earned Income Proxy* (5.7)
5.4
4.8
5.3
4.7
Retail Sales ex Gasoline (5.2)
5.2
4.6
5.1
4.5
5.0
4.4
4.9
4.3
4.8
4.2
4.7
4.1
4.6
4.0
4.5
3.9
4.4
3.8
4.3
3.7
4.2
3.6 yardeni.com
4.1 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
3.5
2017
* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Figure 7. 460
3.5
REAL RETAIL SALES & QUITS (millions)
Real Retail Sales (billions) (414.1)
430
Sep Aug
Quits (millions) (3.1)
400
370
3.0
2.5
340 2.0 310
yardeni.com
280 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1.5
2017
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Page 4 / November 17, 2016 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Figure 8. 8
8
US TREASURY YIELDS: 10-YEAR vs. 2-YEAR (percent)
7
7
6
6
10-Year (2.2) 2-Year (1.0)
5
5
4
4
3
3 11/16
2
2
1
0
1 yardeni.com 2000
2001
0 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 9. 800 750
800
S&P FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INDUSTRIES
750
(indexed to 0 at 3-5-2009)
700
700
650
650
11/10
600
600
550
550
Internet Retail (641.70)
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0 yardeni.com
-50 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-50
2018
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 5 / November 17, 2016 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Figure 10. 19 18
S&P 500
45
REAL ESTATE
(daily forward P/E)
40
17
11/16
16
11/16
(16.7)
15
(35.6)
14 I 21 20 19 18 17 16 15
21
IV
I
II III 2016
IV
I
II III 2017
IV
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
I
II III 2015
IV
I
II III 2016
INDUSTRIALS
IV
30 I
II III 2017
IV 18
11/16
17 16
11/16
15
(17.5)
(17.9)
14 13
I 22
II III 2015
35
II III 2015
IV
I
II III 2016
IV
I
II III 2017
IV
CONSUMER STAPLES
I
II III 2015
IV
I
II III 2016
IV
I
II III 2017
IV 18
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
17
11/16
20 19
16 15
11/16
(18.9)
18
(16.3)
14
17
13 I
60 50
II III 2015
IV
I
II III 2016
IV
I
II III 2017
IV
ENERGY
I
II III 2015
IV
I
II III 2016
IV
I
II III 2017
IV 20
MATERIALS
18 11/16
40
16
11/16
30
(32.3)
20
14
(16.7)
12
10 I 15
II III 2015
IV
I
II III 2016
IV
I
II III 2017
IV
FINANCIALS
I
II III 2015
IV
I
II III 2016
IV
I
II III 2017
IV 16
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
15
14 11/16
14
13
13
11/16
12
(13.4)
12
(12.6)
11
11 I
19 18 17 16 15 14 13
II III 2015
IV
I
II III 2016
IV
I
II III 2017
IV
HEALTH CARE
I
II III 2015
IV
I
II III 2016
IV
I
II III 2017
IV
UTILITIES (14.6) 11/16
11/16
(16.3) yardeni.com
I
II III 2015
IV
I
II III 2016
IV
I
II III 2017
IV
I
II III 2015
IV
I
II III 2016
IV
I
II III 2017
20 19 18 17 16 15 14
IV
* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 6 / November 17, 2016 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
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