Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing Yardeni Research, Inc. November 17, 2016 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Mali Quintana 4...
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Chart Collection for Morning Briefing Yardeni Research, Inc.

November 17, 2016

Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]

Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Figure 1. 3.2

3.2

QUITS

(millions, sa)

Sep

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.6

yardeni.com 2002

2003

1.6 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 2. 7

7

QUITS RATES BY INDUSTRY

Total Private (2.3) Construction (1.7) Manufacturing (1.2) Trade, Transporation, & Utilities (2.5) Professional & Business Services (3.0) Education & Health Services (1.7) Leisure & Hospitality (4.3)

(percent, sa) 6

5

6

5

4

4

3

3

2

2 Sep

1

0

1

yardeni.com 2001

2002

0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 1 / November 17, 2016 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Figure 3. 7

7

ATLANTA FED’S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER (yearly percent change)

6

6

Job Stayer (3.6) Job Switcher (4.4)

5

5 Oct

4

4 Oct

3

3

2

2

yardeni.com

1 97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

1

18

* Three-month moving average of median wage growth. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Figure 4. 6.2 5.8

6.2

ATLANTA FED’S MEDIAN WAGE GROWTH TRACKER* (yearly percent change)

5.8

Wage Growth Tracker

5.4

5.4

Overall (3.9)

5.0

5.0

Average Hourly Earnings

4.6

4.6

Production & Nonsupervisory Workers (2.4)

4.2

4.2 Oct

3.8

3.8

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.0

2.6

2.6 Oct

2.2

2.2

1.8

1.8

1.4

1.4 yardeni.com

1.0 97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

1.0

18

* Three-month moving average of median wage growth. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Page 2 / November 17, 2016 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Figure 5. 140

2.8

CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX & QUITS RATE

2.6

Consumer Optimism Index* (1985=100) (92.9)

120

2.4 Sep 2.2

Quits Rate (percent, sa) (2.3)

100

2.0 80

1.8 1.6

60 1.4 40

1.2 2002

110

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017 2.8

CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX & QUITS RATE

2.6

Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1 1966=100) (91.6)

100

2.4 Nov

90

2.2

Quits Rate (percent, sa) (2.3) 80

2.0 1.8

70 1.6 60 1.4 50

1.2 2002

150

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017 2.8

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & QUITS RATE

2.6

Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) (98.6)

2.4 Sep Oct

100

Quits Rate (percent, sa) (2.3)

2.2 2.0 1.8

50 1.6 1.4 yardeni.com

0 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1.2

2017

*Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Conference Board, and the University of Michigan.

Page 3 / November 17, 2016 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Figure 6. 5.8 5.7

YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY & RETAIL SALES EXCLUDING GASOLINE

5.6

(trillion dollars, saar)

5.2 Oct

5.1 5.0

5.5

4.9

YRI Earned Income Proxy* (5.7)

5.4

4.8

5.3

4.7

Retail Sales ex Gasoline (5.2)

5.2

4.6

5.1

4.5

5.0

4.4

4.9

4.3

4.8

4.2

4.7

4.1

4.6

4.0

4.5

3.9

4.4

3.8

4.3

3.7

4.2

3.6 yardeni.com

4.1 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

3.5

2017

* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Figure 7. 460

3.5

REAL RETAIL SALES & QUITS (millions)

Real Retail Sales (billions) (414.1)

430

Sep Aug

Quits (millions) (3.1)

400

370

3.0

2.5

340 2.0 310

yardeni.com

280 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1.5

2017

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Page 4 / November 17, 2016 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Figure 8. 8

8

US TREASURY YIELDS: 10-YEAR vs. 2-YEAR (percent)

7

7

6

6

10-Year (2.2) 2-Year (1.0)

5

5

4

4

3

3 11/16

2

2

1

0

1 yardeni.com 2000

2001

0 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Haver Analytics.

Figure 9. 800 750

800

S&P FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INDUSTRIES

750

(indexed to 0 at 3-5-2009)

700

700

650

650

11/10

600

600

550

550

Internet Retail (641.70)

500

500

450

450

400

400

350

350

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0 yardeni.com

-50 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

-50

2018

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Page 5 / November 17, 2016 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

Figure 10. 19 18

S&P 500

45

REAL ESTATE

(daily forward P/E)

40

17

11/16

16

11/16

(16.7)

15

(35.6)

14 I 21 20 19 18 17 16 15

21

IV

I

II III 2016

IV

I

II III 2017

IV

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

I

II III 2015

IV

I

II III 2016

INDUSTRIALS

IV

30 I

II III 2017

IV 18

11/16

17 16

11/16

15

(17.5)

(17.9)

14 13

I 22

II III 2015

35

II III 2015

IV

I

II III 2016

IV

I

II III 2017

IV

CONSUMER STAPLES

I

II III 2015

IV

I

II III 2016

IV

I

II III 2017

IV 18

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

17

11/16

20 19

16 15

11/16

(18.9)

18

(16.3)

14

17

13 I

60 50

II III 2015

IV

I

II III 2016

IV

I

II III 2017

IV

ENERGY

I

II III 2015

IV

I

II III 2016

IV

I

II III 2017

IV 20

MATERIALS

18 11/16

40

16

11/16

30

(32.3)

20

14

(16.7)

12

10 I 15

II III 2015

IV

I

II III 2016

IV

I

II III 2017

IV

FINANCIALS

I

II III 2015

IV

I

II III 2016

IV

I

II III 2017

IV 16

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

15

14 11/16

14

13

13

11/16

12

(13.4)

12

(12.6)

11

11 I

19 18 17 16 15 14 13

II III 2015

IV

I

II III 2016

IV

I

II III 2017

IV

HEALTH CARE

I

II III 2015

IV

I

II III 2016

IV

I

II III 2017

IV

UTILITIES (14.6) 11/16

11/16

(16.3) yardeni.com

I

II III 2015

IV

I

II III 2016

IV

I

II III 2017

IV

I

II III 2015

IV

I

II III 2016

IV

I

II III 2017

20 19 18 17 16 15 14

IV

* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Page 6 / November 17, 2016 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com

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