Challenges and Present Status of India’s 100GW Solar Target

Webinar by International Solar Energy Society 30th September 2016

DV Satya Kumar Independent Consultant & MD, Shri Shakti Alternative Energy Ltd

About Shri Shakti and some of our Firsts in Solar

First to achieve financial closure on full non recourse basis for AES Solar India for 5MW project under JNNSM migration scheme in Jan, 2010

Grant award from PACEsetter Fund in May 2016 for Remote Monitoring of Solar Pumps and Off-grid Solar Plants

First Solar Company to be incubated by IFC, Washington under PVMTI Program, circa 2000

Developed the First private solar park in Rajasthan under a MoU with State Government. Tata Power developing 50MW capacity.

Advised RERC for determination of tariff for the earliest MW solar power projects in India, 2009-10

02/10/2015 – INDCs Announced

02/10/2016 – Paris Agreement Ratification by India

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India’s Commitments

• Reduce energy intensity by 33% to 35% by 2030 • 40% of cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel based energy resources by 2030  India projects 800GW capacity by 2030 and 40% would be 320GW of Renewables  63GW Nuclear by 2030 may be difficult to achieve. Hydro capacity 47GW and additions aren’t easy.  If India can do 100GW by 2022, then Solar can be over 142GW by 2030 (as per IEA’s Solar Roadmap, 2014).

Flashback to Sep 2015

 Big Questions about 100GW solar target  Link to webinar recording  http://www.ssael.co.in/knowledg e/webinar-recordings

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The Big Questions

“India will develop 100GW of solar by 2022!”

Can India do it?

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“I want to kill 10 birds with one stone!”

Can Mr Piyush Goyal do it?

IEA’s Roadmap for Solar PV

The 210 GW of cumulative capacity expected by 2020 was achieved five years earlier Capacity expected for 2020 has been revised to 420GW, ie double of what was foreseen in the 2010 roadmap.

IEA, in 2014, has forecasted 142GW by 2030 and 575GW by 2050 for India (Hi Ren scenario)

India’s new target of 100GW under JNNSM can be seen against this background

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IEA Solar Roadmap 2014

IEA’s analysis is based on a bottom-up TIMES* model that uses cost optimization to identify least-cost mixes of energy technologies and fuels to meet energy demand, given availability constraints of natural resources. * The Integrated MARKAL (Market Allocation)- EFOM (energy flow optimization model) System.

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Key Targets and Technologies for 100GW by 2022 60GW through utility scale solar projects 40GW through rooftop solar 25GW target by NTPC 40GW solar parks capacity

Mono and poly crystalline solar, CdTe thin film, CIGS modules have been deployed. Few CSP projects.

Fixed tilt mostly but seasonally adjustable tilt and single axis trackers are being deployed increasingly Grid tied (Mostly 3phase; central and string inverters), hybrid inverters and stand alone offgrid inverters are used. Waterless robotic solutions for panel cleaning being introduced

1 million solar pumps (may be 3 million) Off grid projects gaining significance Over 8GW commissioned and nearly 15GW in pipeline

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Plant based SCADA more common than cloud based monitoring. Automated data analytics lacking.

Net metering regulations being adopted widely along with Forecasting and Scheduling regulations

Macro Economic Drivers for 100GW Solar Market

Fastest growing economy in the world in the last two years. India rose to No.1 position in attracting FDI inflows in 2015 WEF’s Global Competitiveness Report places India at 39th position (71 in 2014, 16 notches jump each for two years in a row) World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index - improvement expected with various reforms and forthcoming GST in 2017

Interest rates are lower, inflation control is still a major concern and current account deficit lowest in years

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100% EV by 2030 Goal

India aims at 100% EV by 2030. An inter ministerial group has been formed with power, petroleum, transport and environment Ministers. India imports 80% of it’s oil and uses 50% of forex earnings for oil imports

Large part of such EV drive may have to be powered with solar A Study done by our Company in Rajasthan, reveals a potential of 20,000MW of Solar to displace just 5% of the gas / petrol used for cars and two wheelers!

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Solar Power for Agriculture 30% electrical energy consumption in India used only for irrigation No of agricultural pumpsets in India over 16million (about 20% Diesel – about 10,000MW solar PV capacity) Huge T & D losses in agri feeders – warrants distributed energy Focus on ‘Citizen Centric’ solutions rather than ‘Supply Centric’ solutions “Multiple bottom line” impacts – power, water, enhanced livelihoods / doubling of incomes

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Innovation and Market Transformation International Solar Alliance hosted in India

Green Hub for renewable energy startups in Hyderabad in collaboration with University of Texas, Austin

Policy for renewable energy startups on the anvil

Smart Cities, Smart Villages and Green Buildings provide impetus for renewables

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The pitfalls of rapid growth… Worldwide, performance of PV plants is not without it’s share of issues. This is mainly because:  Plants were constructed under extreme time pressure  Some EPC Contractors had limited or no experience in solar PV  Some of the EPC Contractors who undertook the O&M of the plants became financially distressed and neglected their O&M obligations  Solar O&M has been very often perceived as trivial  Boom and bust in the solar market

With five years of MW solar plants in operation, experience in India is no different MNRE funded study by IIT, Bombay, on field performance and degradation of solar modules is a wake up call

India can learn from global experience and plan to counter such shortcomings in advance

Importance of Performance Monitoring and O&M Operations & Maintenance (O&M) is no more an add-on to Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) A critical component in the solar energy value chain, best outsourced to professional O&M contractors Carries the longest period of financial impact – throughout the plant life cycle O&M costs in NPV terms is 15% of overall plant cost

What can we learn from the last five years of utility solar market? How can Banks and Regulators assess plant performance?

Can we have common benchmarking for performance and experience sharing to avoid pitfalls?

Questions to answer What role can professional bodies like ISES and SESI play to support the market growth?

What can we learn from Best Practices and Standards from Sun Spec Alliance and Solar Power Europe?

In Summary

Agriculture, EVs, Market Innovation and Technology adoption hold the key to creating a sustainable market

100 GW of solar generation is in clear sight

EPCs and Developers must be focused on capacity growth without neglecting O&M and performance issues

Global markets have hard lessons to offer on viability and sustainability

Off-grid generation is a driver which needs to become ‘solution centric’ rather than ‘supply centric’

Thank You

DV Satya Kumar +91 98491 29629 [email protected]

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