Challenges and Policy Issues of Sustainable Development of Energy Sector in

Iran Sharif Energy Research Inst. – SERI Sharif University of Technology September 2014

Table of Content 1.

Introduction

2.

Problems of Energy Sector in Iran

3.

Energy Management & Policy Issue

4.

Challenges and Programs

Introduction 1.

What are major energy issues in Iran?

2.

What

are

challenges

of

Sustainable

development of energy sector? 3.

What are the ways for improving the role of scientific community in the process of decision making?

4.

How could the research contribute to improved decision making?

Energy Problems Energy Balance

Year 2012 1.

Final Energy

1325 MBOE

2.

Primary Energy

1832 MBOE

3.

Oil & Gas Subsidy

112 Billion US$

‫‪Energy Problems‬‬ ‫ﺸﺮﮐﺖ ﻤﻟی ﻧﻔﺖ اﻳﺮان‬

Energy Problems Economic Dependence

1.

Share of Oil in Export

> 80%

2.

Share of Oil in Public Budget

> 50%

3.

Share of Oil in GDP

16%

Energy Problems Energy - Environment

1.

Local Environment 

Water - Oil & Gas Upstream



Soil - Degradation & Salt Content



Air - Air Pollution in Large Cities

2.

Global 

CO2 & GWP

> 630 Mt/a



GWP per Capita

7.5 t/Cap/a

Energy Problems Energy - Development

1.

Energy Requirement 

Rising Energy Demand



Increased Energy Losses



Energy Unbalances



High Costs of Energy

Extractio n Import(Prim.) Crude Oil

Coal Nat. Gas Feed

Primary Transport Processi Import(Proc.) ng Oil Refinery

D P C R Coal Processing

Injection

Biomass Hydro Other Renewable

Nuclear Fuel Fab. Biomass Processing Hydro Power Hydrogen Production

Transpor t Pet. Prod.

Feed

Thermal Power Plant

Gas Processing

Solar Nuclear

Conversi on Network

Solar Conversion Nuclear Power Plant

Transport

Storage Nat. Gas Transport H2 Transport

Renewable Power Plant FC Power Plant

Distributio n Pet. Prod.

Natural Gas

Coal

End Use r

Useful Energ y

Urban Household Rural Household

Industry

District Heating1 Hydrogen

Transport

Biomass Agriculture

Transmission

Import(Elec.)

Electricity

Commercial

Storage Export

SERI-Sept 2014

Losses

Energy Problems Potentials of Economic Development Per Capital GDP 50

Million Rials/Capita/a

45 40 35 30

Historical

25

BAU

20

LOW

15

BASE

10

HIGH

5 0 1995

2010

2025 Year

2040

Energy Problems Growth of GDP

‫ﺸﺮﮐﺖ ﻤﻟی ﻧﻔﺖ اﻳﺮان‬ 4500000 4000000

Mrd. Rials/a

3500000 3000000

Historical

2500000

BAU

2000000

LOW

1500000

BASE

1000000

HIGH

500000 0 1375

1390

1405

1420

50

10.0%

45

9.0%

40 35 30

Historical

25

BAU

20

LOW

15

BASE

10

HIGH

5

8.0% 7.0% 6.0%

Historical

5.0%

BAU

4.0%

LOW

3.0% 2.0%

BASE

1.0%

HIGH

0.0%

0 1375

È◊óvô ¨ ◊ò÷wfiöÎ÷∙ Éö©ùï ûfi

Million Rials/Capita/a

Year

1390

1405 Year

1420

1375

1385

1395

‘w •

1405

1415

Energy Problems Potentials of Economic Development Per Capita Useful Energy Requirement

Trend of Useful Energy Demand per Capita

GJ/Person

200 150 BAU

100

LOW

50

BASE

0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

HIGH

Energy Problems Potentials of Economic Development Useful Energy Intensity

Trend of Useful Energy Intensity

kJ/Rials1376

8.0 6.0 BAU

4.0

LOW

2.0

BASE

0.0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Year

HIGH

Energy Problems Trend of Energy Supply

Trend of Final Energy Consumption

BAU BASE HIGH

MBOE/a

5000

7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

4000 3000 2000

BAU

1000

BASE

0

HIGH

1390 1395 1400 1405 1410 1415 1420 1425 1430

1390 1395 1400 1405 1410 1415 1420 1425 1430

Year

Year

Trend of Ueful Energy Utilization

MBOE/a

MBOE/a

Trend of Primary Energy Supply

3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

BAU BASE HIGH

1390 1395 1400 1405 1410 1415 1420 1425 1430

Year

Energy Problems Trend of primary Energy Intensity

4.00 3.00 2.00

BAU

1.00

BASE

0.00

HIGH

1390 1395 1400 1405 1410 1415 1420 1425 1430

Year Trend of Final Energy Intensity

BOE/Mio. Rls1376

BOE/Mio. Rls1376

Trend of Primary Energy Intensity

2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00

BAU

0.50

BASE

0.00

HIGH

1390 1395 1400 1405 1410 1415 1420 1425 1430

Year

Energy Efficiency 1.

Potential

2.

Barriers

390 MBOE/a



Energy Subsidy



Low Efficiency of Technologies



Scarcity of Capital



Poor Private Investors



Limited Experience in Tech Dev

Energy Problems Energy - Development

Policy Requirements 

Improving Energy Efficiency



Renewable Energy Resources



Changes in Energy Market



Expansion of Private Sector



Capacity Building for Tech Dev

Policy Measures 1.

Promotion of Private Investors 

Opportunity Costs of Energy Saving Financial Resources: 100 Billion US$



Energy Saving Companies



Introduction of Energy Service Market



Development of Efficient Technologies



Capacity Building

Policy Measures 2.

Policy Coordination 

Commission: Energy Efficiency & Management of Environment



3.

Center for Innovation and Technology Development

Development of Energy Networks 

Energy Service Companies



Knowledge Based Companies



Local Enterprise Partnership



International Cooperation

Priorities Energy Efficiency

1.

Development & Application of 

Utilization of Gas Flare



SCCHP System



Turbo Expanders



ORC



HRSG



Hybrid Energy Systems



Energy Management Systems

Priorities Energy Efficiency

2.

Renewable Energy Resources 

Local Green Energy – Rural Areas



Management of Energy & Environment in Assaluyeh

3.

Management of Environment 

Water Desalination – Oil & Gas Upstream



Pollution Control in Large Cities

‫ﺸﺮﮐﺖ ﻤﻟی ﻧﻔﺖ اﻳﺮان‬

Energy Resource 1.

2.

Oil & Gas Reserves:

361.7 Billions BOE

Production:

3.05 Billions BOE/Year

R/P Ratio

> 100 Years

Solar

300 GW

Potentials

290 Millions BOE/a

3. Hydro Power

16 GW

4. Wind

2 GW

Model of ‫ﺸﺮﮐﺖ ﻤﻟی ﻧﻔﺖ اﻳﺮان‬

Energy-Environment



Integrated System of Modules



Energy-Environment Optimization 

Model Concept •

Reference Energy System

•

Environmental Flow Diagram





Objective 

Economically Feasible



Environmentally Compatible



Socially Acceptable

ESM