June-July 2015

CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil Market Access is Here Today for Western Canadian Crude Peter Howard Historically pipelines have been the method of choice when moving crude petroleum medium to long distances from field supply locations to refinery entrances. This is especially true when looking at western Canadian crude (conventional light, bitumen, and synthetic crude) which reached 3.5 million barrels per day of production in 2014 with only 0.9 million barrels per day of domestic demand in Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan. Exports to the United States averaged 2.8 million barrels per day or 80 percent of the production. Even in light of the current pull back in oil pricing, western Canadian crude supply is expected to grow over the next 10 to 20 years based on the underlying assumption that oil prices will return to profitable levels within the next one to two years. Unfortunately, this growth in supply has managed to fill the existing pipeline capacity – leading industry to anxiously await the development of new pipelines either to the west coast of Canada, the United States Gulf Coast, or the east coast of Canada. Protracted timelines for regulatory approval coupled with pushback from aboriginal and environmental groups have resulted in a general feeling of uncertainty about pipeline developments. This has led to industry investigating other options such as repurposing existing pipelines to handle crude and using railways, barges, and trucks. In western Canada the movement of crude by rail has seen limited use. This is because oil pipeline gathering systems are weaved throughout supply areas, and there are also well developed oil pipeline transport systems to connect supply areas to the refinery complex and export CERI Commodity Report – Crude Oil Editorial Committee: Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Jon Rozhon, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].

storage terminals in the Edmonton region (including Hardisty). Truck transport moves crude from remote areas to the Edmonton facilities, and oil export pipelines link western Canada with markets in the United States. Crude movement by rail has historically averaged less than 6,000 railcar movements per year. However, the continued growth in oil production has exceeded pipeline takeaway capacity; this has led to industry expanding the use of railcars to transport crude to US markets. In the first quarter of 2012 the oil industry moved on average 15,000 barrels per day (approximately 9,000 annual railcar movements). These volumes grew to 173,000 barrels per day (105,000 annual railcar movements) in the fourth quarter of 2014. Railcar usage could reach the 700,000 barrels per day level (425,000 annual railcar movements) by 2017, based on CERI’s growth projection for conventional crude and oil sands. Because construction has yet to begin on four major pipeline projects (Northern Gateway, Trans Mountain expansion, Keystone XL and Energy East),it appears new pipeline capacity (other than enhancements on the Enbridge mainline) will not be available until 2019 at the earliest. Crude by rail could approach the 1,000,000 barrel per day level by 2019/2020, assuming crude pricing returns to the $75 level within the next 2 years. Historically, the perception has been that the movement of crude by pipeline to access export markets was the cheapest form of transportation. Railcars, on the other hand, were considered more costly and useful in limited ways, such as in transporting specific crude blends to refineries not reachable by the pipeline system. The reality for western Canadian producers today, however, is that the WCSB supply basin is a land-locked resource with limited incremental pipeline developments under development to access either North American or global markets. Enter the North American rail systems, which today connect supply areas with every coast and virtually every refinery. Rail systems offer speed to market, optionality, scalability, product integrity, location flexibility, and low capital requirements. On the negative side, rail costs can Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 2

be volatile, with tanker car cycle times affected by congestion, weather and/or disruptions on the rail systems themselves. The invention of unit train movement (trains carrying one commodity from point A to point B) offers cost savings but requires unit train offloading capability at destination points. In addition, transport of bitumen, or bitumen with less than 10 percent diluent, requires steam generating equipment at the destination in order to offload the product. Tables 1 and 2 offer a comparison of transport costs for pipeline and rail transport. For this comparison it is assumed that to transport bitumen via pipeline, the addition of 32 barrels of diluent (condensate or pentanes plus) must be added to every 100 barrels of bitumen. For rail transport it is assumed that 12 barrels of diluent are added to 100 barrels of bitumen to permit loading of the railcars in cold weather. Further, these comparisons are based on a closed system transporting diluent from Mt. Belvieu to Edmonton/Hardisty, truck transport to a theoretical SAGD (steam assisted gravity drainage) bitumen in-situ site, transport diluent bitumen blend back to Edmonton, transport on the Keystone base pipeline system to the US Gulf Coast, and recycling diluent back to Mt. Belvieu. Diluent recovery costs and diluent makeup costs are assumed at the destination site; also assumed is the availability of steam facilities for offloading train cars at the destination.

Input costs are on a per barrel basis with the final transport cost specified on a per barrel of input bitumen basis. Comparing Table 1 to Table 2 it appears that a diluted bitumen (DilBit) pipeline system offers a $1.13 advantage over a low diluent bitumen (NeatBit) rail system. Not using any diluent in the rail case may offer some cost savings but would reduce the amount of bitumen loaded in each car (weight restrictions) also likely raising the steaming costs at destination. Increasing the use of diluent in railcars adds to the cost on a per barrel of bitumen basis, making that process more expensive. What this suggests is that oil by rail is a realistic longterm option to move bitumen to market. While pipelines are more cost effective and have a better safety record than rail, rail capacity can be added incrementally, matching demand requirements, a definite cost savings. Rail is also flexible. Destinations for pipelines are fixed. Rail shipments can be moved from one destination to another based on market demand. With the optionality of a flexible destination, incremental capacity investments and existing regulatory and government approvals, it can be argued that market access is already a reality for Western Canadian bitumen.

Table 1: Pipeline Transportation Cost Alberta Oil Sands SAGD Project to United States Gulf of Mexico

Source: Enbridge, TransCanada, Grizzly Oil Sands, CAPP, and CERI

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

Page 3

Table 2: Rail Transport Cost Alberta Oil Sands SAGD Project to United States Gulf of Mexico

Source: Enbridge, TransCanada, Grizzly Oil Sands, CAPP, and CERI

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

Jul-09

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

US$/bbl

Jul-10

Jan-15

WTI

WTI 52.56 57.72 44.94

Brent 57.25 61.56 48.30

Jul-11

Differential

Jul-12

WTI

Price Differentials

Hardisty Heavy

Jul-13

Jul-15

Jul-14

Cdn.Light* 48.54 54.67 59.13

Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15

Brent

WTI - Hardisty Heavy

Spot Prices Year-to-Date Quarter-to-Date August 10, 2015

SOURCE: NRCan, EIA.

W

Differential

Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14

SOURCE: EIA.

Jul-14

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

US$/bbl

Price Differentials

WTI -WTI Edmonton - Brent Light Spot Crude Prices

-4

Jul-15

H.Hardisty 40.43 45.66 52.24

Aug-15

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

US$/bbl

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

US$/bbl

Jul-11

WTI

Jul-12

Edmonton Light

Jul-13

Jul-14

1

2

11-Jun-15

10-Jul-15

4 contract months

3

11-Aug-15

4

NYMEX WTI Crude Forward Curve

Jul-10

Differential

SOURCE: EIA, CERI.

N

SOURCE: EIA.

Jul-09

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

US$/bbl

Price Differentials

WTI - Edmonton Light

Jul-15

Page 4

Sep-14

Nov-14

2Q14

4Q14

Total OECD

3Q14

SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

MMbpd 100

NYMEX Prices Year-to-Date Quarter-to-Date August 10, 2015

Mar-15

Unleaded Gasoline 1.8079 1.9877 1.6940

May-15

Total Non-OECD

1Q15

2Q15

4Q15

non-OECD Demand share

3Q15

Jul-15

49.5%

50.0%

50.5%

51.0%

51.5%

52.0%

Heating Oil 1.8150 1.9028 1.5630

1Q16

Global Oil Demand Oil Demand in Selected Countries

SOURCE: EIA, CERI.

Jul-14

1.00

1.25

Jan-15

0.80

1.75

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

% 15%

Total

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jet Fuel

Distillate

Residual

July 2014 - July 2015 Y-on-Y change

US Products Demand

Gasoline

Jul-10

CDN/US$ Exchange Rate

SOURCE: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

U

SOURCE: NRCan.

Jul-09

0.60

0.70

0.90

1.50

1.00

2.00

1.20

1.30

2.25

Heating Oil 1.10

RBOB Gasoline

1.40

CDN/US$

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

US$/gal

NYMEX Petroleum Products

Propane

Jul-14

Other

Jul-15

Page 5

Relevant • Independent • Objective

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

2Q14

4Q14

non-OPEC Supply

3Q14

OPEC Supply

1Q15

1Q16

AB L/M/H

AB Bitumen

2Q15

SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

SK

Other

3Q15 NGLs

4Q15

1Q16 Synthetic

Jun-12

3Q15 Federal GOM

Jun-13 OECD North America

SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Mbpd

3,500

Texas

2Q15

4Q15 Other Lower 48

OECD Europe

OECD Pacific

Jun-14

by region

3,500

4,000

California

OECD Commercial Stocks

Mbpd

4,500

1Q15 Alaska

SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report.

0

by region

by product

57.0%

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

5,000

1Q15

4Q15

non-OPEC Share of Global Supply

3Q15

57.5%

58.0%

58.5%

59.0%

59.5%

60.0%

60.5%

61.0%

61.5%

Mbpd 14,000

US Oil Production

Canadian Oil Production

2Q15

Global Oil Supply

SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report, CERI.

0

20

40

60

80

100

MMbpd 120

S

NGLs

Jun-15

Other

1Q16

Page 6

Crude

Gasoline

Distillate

SOURCE: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

MMb

Products

June 26- July 31, 2015 M-on-M Change

US Commercial Stocks

Total

2Q14

3Q14

SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report.

170

172.5

175

177.5

180

182.5

185

187.5

190

192.5

195

MMb

4Q14

1Q15

Canadian Stocks on Land

2Q15

Page 7

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 8

World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd) 2012

2013

2014

2015

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

World Demand OECD non-OECD

90.7 45.9 44.8

91.9 46.0 45.9

92.6 45.6 47.0

94.2 46.1 48.2

90.7 45.9 44.8

91.4 45.6 45.8

92.6 46.4 46.2

93.0 46.6 46.4

91.8 45.7 46.0

91.8 44.7 47.1

93.1 45.7 47.4

93.8 46.3 47.6

93.6 46.6 47.1

93.5 45.1 48.4

94.5 46.1 48.5

95.2 46.5 48.7

World Supply

90.9

91.4

93.7

95.7

90.4

91.3

91.8

91.9

92.2

93.0

94.1

95.2

95.2

96.5

95.5

95.4

53.3 6.2 28.4

54.6 6.2 27.4

57.0 6.4 27.0

58.1 6.6 27.1

53.7 6.2 30.5

54.1 6.3 30.9

54.9 6.3 30.6

55.8 6.3 29.8

55.9 6.3 30.0

56.6 6.3 30.1

57.2 6.4 30.5

58.3 6.4 30.5

58.2 6.5 30.5

58.4 6.6 31.5

57.9 6.7 30.9

57.9 6.7 30.8

0.2

-0.6

1.1

1.5

-0.3

-0.1

-0.8

-1.1

0.4

1.2

1.0

1.4

1.7

3.0

1.0

0.2

2665 58

2657 58

2662 57

2697 58

2566 56

2582 58

2652 58

2720 59

2712 58

2817 62

2950 64

2994 64

Non-OPEC OPEC NGLs OPEC Crude Supply - Demand1 OECD Stocks (MMbbls) Days Cover

OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)

Saudi Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait

Sustainable Capacity 10.85 4.00 2.85 2.65

Qatar Nigeria Libya Algeria Ecuador OPEC-11 Iraq1 Total OPEC

0.90 2.60 1.75 1.43 0.49 32.12 2.50 34.62

May-15 10.31 2.85 2.87 2.77

Production Jun-15 10.48 2.82 2.88 2.74

Jul-15 10.40 2.87 2.91 2.74

0.66 1.76 0.45 1.11 0.55 27.52 3.84 31.36

0.66 1.79 0.42 1.11 0.54 27.66 4.15 31.81

0.63 1.77 0.39 1.11 0.55 27.61 4.18 31.79

Over (+)/Under (-) Target May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 2.26 2.43 2.35 -0.49 -0.52 -0.47 0.65 0.66 0.69 0.55 0.52 0.52 -0.07 0.09 -1.02 -0.09 0.12 -2.48

-0.07 0.12 -1.05 -0.09 0.11 -2.34

-0.10 0.10 -1.08 -0.09 0.12 -2.39

WTI Price Projections ($US/barrel) 2013

2014

2015 48.95

2016 50.60

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15 49.50

4Q15 48.40

1Q16 49.50

2Q16 50.60

3Q16 51.70

98.03

93.28

48.84

46.00

97.59

73.62

48.49

57.85

45.00

44.00

45.00

46.00

47.00

37.83

39.10

38.25

37.40

38.25

39.10

39.95

High Price Case Reference Case Low Price Case

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

Page 9

Data Appendix

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 10

A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel) NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month

Spread

Close 94.86 96.82 96.53

Average 95.15 97.37 96.37

Near Mo. 95.30 97.01 96.73

Strip Avg. 96.89 97.45 87.56

(1-2 Mo.) -0.35 -0.12 0.54

2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

101.33 102.58 83.30 51.08 53.32 -47.4%

101.93 102.08 83.34 51.34 53.04 -48.0%

101.28 102.22 86.59 54.75 52.84 -47.8%

99.77 99.28 86.30 56.95 56.55 -43.3%

0.69 0.90 0.56 -0.47 -1.51

Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

104.42 96.07 91.52 82.81 75.58 56.52 46.39 50.34 45.72 55.26 58.98 59.68 50.36 -51.8%

104.05 95.65 92.33 82.76 74.92 55.70 47.11 51.21 44.78 55.79 58.56 59.91 50.47 -51.5%

103.81 98.42 93.49 87.91 78.37 64.33 50.64 49.29 47.98 51.65 58.89 59.63 54.66 -47.3%

97.86 97.09 92.94 87.10 78.87 65.55 52.78 52.53 52.78 55.42 61.46 61.11 53.70 -45.1%

0.73 1.27 0.78 0.81 0.10 -0.19 -0.45 -0.78 -1.84 -1.57 -1.12 -0.41 -0.36

2012 2013 2014

A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon) NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month

NYMEX Heating Oil Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month

Spread

Spread

Close 296.8 284.3 270.6

Average 295.4 285.6 272.8

Near Mo. 291.2 284.5 271.8

Strip Avg. 274.6 274.2 260.8

(1-2 Mo.) 5.0 0.5 1.7

Close 301.8 298.2 285.9

Average 301.7 299.0 287.7

Near Mo. 301.9 298.9 286.4

Strip Avg. 307.0 304.9 290.2

(1-2 Mo.) -1.4 -0.5 1.4

2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

297.2 289.7 222.0 153.9 197.2 -33.6%

299.1 289.9 227.8 151.7 194.1 -35.1%

296.7 289.6 230.0 152.1 191.8 -35.4%

282.1 264.6 218.0 165.9 181.2 -35.8%

2.1 6.6 4.8 -9.1 0.5

291.7 290.5 246.4 194.4 188.3 -35.5%

293.7 291.5 251.5 189.3 185.6 -36.8%

294.5 290.1 256.3 188.0 186.1 -36.8%

298.7 297.6 261.0 186.9 192.9 -35.4%

0.9 -0.8 0.7 5.3 0.3

Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

283.1 278.3 258.7 217.0 190.4 143.5 141.5 176.8 178.0 205.0 208.6 209.0 184.1 -35.0%

284.8 276.1 264.8 219.6 199.0 144.7 137.1 173.2 179.3 202.3 200.5 205.6 183.0 -35.7%

291.0 273.4 259.0 225.3 205.8 161.8 134.1 160.5 182.6 189.9 202.8 206.9 191.1 -34.3%

265.7 249.9 240.4 214.5 199.0 173.3 149.9 174.6 172.6 180.4 190.6 180.1 157.2 -40.8%

2.9 13.7 8.2 4.5 1.8 -1.4 -3.5 -22.4 0.3 0.1 1.2 3.7 6.0

288.7 285.7 264.7 251.5 223.1 184.7 168.6 229.9 171.8 197.6 195.5 188.7 158.4 -45.1%

289.5 285.6 268.4 252.1 234.1 185.5 164.5 218.0 172.6 194.7 189.4 186.2 159.3 -45.0%

288.7 285.2 274.5 253.3 241.3 200.9 167.1 196.1 178.2 184.0 196.3 188.9 168.2 -41.7%

296.9 292.4 281.7 258.4 242.9 200.7 168.8 191.2 183.2 191.9 203.6 197.6 177.8 -40.1%

-1.1 -0.6 -0.6 0.5 2.3 3.2 2.5 10.3 1.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -1.3

2012 2013 2014

Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average contract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

Page 11

A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel) Saudi

U.A.E.

Oman

U.K.

Norway

Russia

Venez.

Kuwait

Ecuador

Mexico

Nigeria

Indon.

2012 2013 2014

Arab Lgt 110.27 106.60 97.07

Dubai 109.11 105.51 96.61

Oman 109.39 105.57 96.94

Brent 111.62 108.69 99.00

Ekofisk 112.67 109.89 99.78

Urals1 T.J. Light Blend 110.50 103.85 108.98 108.05 96.71 105.10 98.01 86.87 95.21

Oriente 102.82 97.77 87.25

Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas 106.57 113.68 116.63 105.16 111.41 107.32 93.58 100.77 98.63

2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

106.43 102.21 74.04 50.15 60.43 -43.2%

106.09 101.44 74.44 52.03 61.28 -42.2%

106.23 101.83 75.25 52.77 60.91 -42.7%

109.67 101.83 76.28 53.97 61.84 -43.6%

110.73 102.37 76.76 54.96 62.53 -43.5%

108.06 101.45 75.69 53.30 62.18 -42.5%

96.25 92.33 65.25 44.05 52.11 -45.9%

104.63 100.46 72.09 48.36 58.72 -43.9%

96.32 90.65 66.74 45.02 55.83 -42.0%

103.45 97.56 74.73 49.87 62.12 -40.0%

112.26 103.17 77.47 54.57 62.72 -44.1%

110.16 100.02 73.44 52.13 60.54 -45.0%

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

107.15 102.24 97.23 85.93 76.07 60.13 44.47 53.78 52.20 57.73 62.62 60.94 54.95 -48.7%

106.13 101.73 96.47 86.73 76.33 60.25 45.57 55.85 54.66 58.55 63.54 61.76 56.15 -47.1%

106.15 102.15 97.18 86.77 77.81 61.16 46.61 56.58 55.12 58.66 63.60 60.48 55.06 -48.1%

106.64 101.56 97.30 87.41 78.90 62.53 47.86 58.13 55.93 59.50 64.32 61.69 56.54 -47.0%

107.33 102.04 97.75 87.87 79.27 63.15 48.48 59.22 57.18 60.51 64.86 62.23 57.08 -46.8%

106.23 101.98 96.13 86.63 78.92 61.53 47.03 57.81 55.07 59.70 64.33 62.52 55.84 -47.4%

95.06 93.31 88.61 76.17 68.42 51.17 37.96 48.41 45.79 49.49 55.09 51.74 44.43 -53.3%

105.50 100.57 95.30 83.99 74.04 58.25 42.31 52.25 50.52 55.96 60.92 59.29 53.85 -49.0%

95.21 89.53 87.20 76.84 69.52 53.86 42.26 47.00 45.79 52.73 58.04 56.71 47.78 -49.8%

102.20 96.78 93.70 85.40 79.04 59.74 45.52 52.68 51.41 59.10 63.78 63.48 55.62 -45.6%

109.19 102.26 98.07 88.51 80.10 63.81 48.51 58.46 56.75 60.65 65.31 62.19 56.77 -48.0%

105.06 99.94 95.07 84.46 75.92 59.95 46.37 55.90 54.11 58.55 62.98 60.09 51.86 -50.6%

Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel) United States

2012 2013 2014

ANS 1 Lost Hills Kern R. 105.08 110.02 101.45 100.20 106.62 99.05 94.79 94.13 87.39

WTI 90.58 94.46 88.44

WTS 85.58 89.46 83.44

GCS 83.58 87.65 82.19

Okla. Sw. 90.58 94.46 88.44

Kans. Sw. 89.42 93.48 85.77

Mich. So. 82.58 86.46 80.44

Wyo. Sw. 85.26 90.27 83.52

Canada CDN Sweet2 HH3 86.16 78.02 92.93 78.90 91.36 81.69

2Q 2014 98.82 3Q 2014 98.33 4Q 2014 85.16 1Q 2015 60.55 2Q 2015 48.46 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -51.0%

107.32 96.38 66.61 52.27 61.76 -42.5%

100.53 89.95 59.72 41.63 53.02 -47.3%

100.00 92.42 64.25 46.33 55.33 -44.7%

95.00 87.42 59.25 41.33 50.33 -47.0%

93.75 86.17 58.00 40.08 49.08 -47.6%

100.00 92.42 64.25 46.33 55.33 -44.7%

99.00 91.42 63.25 44.42 54.42 -45.0%

92.00 84.42 56.25 38.33 47.33 -48.6%

95.06 87.29 59.65 42.56 51.58 -45.7%

104.18 97.75 75.03 53.33 68.68 -34.1%

90.77 84.40 67.45 43.37 57.43 -36.7%

Jul-14 99.80 Aug-14 101.47 Sep-14 93.71 Oct-14 93.71 Nov-14 85.02 Dec-14 76.76 Jan-15 85.02 Feb-15 53.97 Mar-15 42.65 Apr-15 46.82 May-15 46.61 Jun-15 51.94 Jul-15 57.76 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -42.1%

103.10 97.51 88.53 79.83 64.19 55.81 48.28 54.05 54.47 61.44 62.72 61.13 49.87 -51.6%

97.45 90.75 81.65 73.00 57.10 49.05 40.40 41.55 42.95 51.15 54.05 53.85 41.75 -57.2%

98.50 92.50 86.25 77.00 62.75 53.00 44.75 46.25 48.00 53.75 56.25 56.00 43.50 -55.8%

93.50 87.50 81.25 72.00 57.75 48.00 39.75 41.25 43.00 48.75 51.25 51.00 38.50 -58.8%

92.25 86.25 80.00 70.75 56.50 46.75 38.50 40.00 41.75 47.50 50.00 49.75 37.25 -59.6%

98.50 92.50 86.25 77.00 62.75 53.00 44.75 46.25 48.00 53.75 56.25 56.00 43.50 -55.8%

97.50 91.50 85.25 76.00 61.75 52.00 43.75 45.25 44.25 52.75 55.25 55.25 42.50 -56.4%

90.50 84.50 78.25 69.00 54.75 45.00 36.75 38.25 40.00 45.75 48.25 48.00 35.50 -60.8%

93.17 87.46 81.24 72.04 57.65 49.27 40.99 42.51 44.18 49.90 52.47 52.38 39.87 -57.2%

100.07 96.38 96.80 87.73 75.39 61.98 48.48 55.75 55.75 62.72 70.64 72.68 59.45 -40.6%

89.38 81.00 82.81 80.12 71.77 50.47 37.55 46.28 46.28 49.82 58.42 64.04 56.69 -36.6%

Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. Edmonton Light Sweet prices are discontinued as of May 1, 2014 and replaced by the Canadian Light Crude blend which is traded daily on the Net Energy Index. 3. Hardisty Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 12

A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel) Light vs. Heavy Arab Hv 108.36 103.96 93.57

Maya 99.74 97.74 85.88

Diff. 6.83 7.42 7.69

HH2 78.06 76.52 73.85

Diff. 1.92 2.64 3.50

Isthmus 106.57 105.16 93.58

2Q 2014 106.43 102.94 3Q 2014 102.21 98.85 4Q 2014 74.04 70.43 1Q 2015 50.15 46.89 2Q 2015 60.43 57.19 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -43.2% -44.4%

3.48 3.35 3.62 3.26 3.24

103.45 95.26 97.56 91.19 74.73 67.60 49.87 44.36 62.12 52.52 -40.0% -44.9%

8.19 6.37 7.13 5.51 9.60

95.54 83.24 89.77 77.51 65.56 58.93 43.14 35.08 55.84 46.69 -41.6% -43.9%

12.30 12.26 6.62 8.06 9.15

93.75 95.00 86.17 87.42 58.00 59.25 40.08 41.33 49.08 50.33 -47.6% -47.0%

-1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25

Jul-14 107.15 103.69 Aug-14 102.24 99.14 Sep-14 97.23 93.73 Oct-14 85.93 82.45 Nov-14 76.07 72.18 Dec-14 60.13 56.65 Jan-15 44.47 40.25 Feb-15 53.78 51.07 Mar-15 52.20 49.34 Apr-15 57.73 54.26 May-15 62.62 59.42 Jun-15 60.94 57.90 Jul-15 54.95 52.90 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -48.7% -49.0%

3.46 3.10 3.50 3.48 3.89 3.48 4.22 2.71 2.86 3.47 3.20 3.04 2.05

102.20 94.33 96.78 91.10 93.70 88.13 85.40 78.85 79.04 71.43 59.74 52.52 45.52 40.11 52.68 47.31 51.41 45.67 59.10 49.53 63.78 54.68 63.48 53.35 55.62 44.42 -45.6% -52.9%

7.87 5.68 5.57 6.55 7.61 7.22 5.41 5.37 5.74 9.57 9.10 10.13 11.20

93.23 83.27 88.21 74.13 87.92 75.21 78.24 71.44 66.57 63.37 52.46 42.72 40.11 31.06 44.58 37.01 44.58 37.01 50.79 40.34 57.96 47.93 58.78 51.79 46.29 44.14 -50.3% -47.0%

9.96 14.08 12.70 6.79 3.20 9.74 9.04 7.58 7.58 10.45 10.03 6.99 2.15

92.25 93.50 86.25 87.50 80.00 81.25 70.75 72.00 56.50 57.75 46.75 48.00 38.50 39.75 40.00 41.25 41.75 43.00 47.50 48.75 50.00 51.25 49.75 51.00 37.25 38.50 -59.6% -58.8%

-1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25 -1.25

2012 2013 2014

Arab Lt 110.27 106.60 97.07

Sweet vs. Sour CDN Sweet2 86.20 90.13 82.59

Diff. 8.14 13.61 8.74

GCS 83.58 87.65 82.19

WTS 85.58 89.46 83.44

Diff. -2.00 -1.81 -1.25

Notes: 1. Edmonton Light Sweet prices are discontinued as of May 1, 2014 and replaced by the Canadian Light Crude blend which is traded daily on the Net Energy Index. 2. Hardisty Heavy. Based on contract prices at the end of each month. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel) WTI

Brent

Spot Prices Dubai

Urals

Basket1

94.12 98.03 93.28

111.68 108.68 98.94

109.02 105.44 96.52

110.85 108.39 97.97

109.19 105.94 96.19

-16.82 -11.87 -2.41

-14.16 -8.63 0.01

-15.99 -11.58 -1.44

-14.33 -9.12 0.34

2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

103.06 97.59 73.62 48.49 57.85 -43.9%

109.66 101.91 76.61 53.96 61.87 -43.6%

106.16 101.47 74.13 51.72 61.23 -42.3%

108.19 100.92 75.94 52.93 61.53 -43.1%

105.87 100.78 73.36 50.30 59.89 -43.4%

-8.33 0.67 6.69 -2.88 -8.55

-4.83 1.11 9.17 -0.64 -7.91

-6.86 1.66 7.36 -1.85 -8.21

-4.53 1.80 9.94 0.78 -6.57

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

102.92 96.38 93.21 84.40 76.34 59.47 47.27 50.61 47.79 54.46 59.27 59.80 50.90 -50.5%

106.63 101.56 97.29 87.42 78.94 62.57 47.84 58.09 56.05 59.79 64.35 61.63 56.48 -47.0%

106.12 101.76 96.55 86.53 76.40 60.22 45.62 55.42 54.53 58.37 63.58 61.84 56.20 -47.0%

105.51 101.43 95.65 86.68 78.92 61.34 46.48 57.61 54.82 59.44 63.67 61.57 55.87 -47.0%

105.61 100.75 95.98 85.06 75.57 59.46 44.38 54.06 52.46 57.30 62.16 60.21 54.19 -48.7%

-2.21 -5.49 -5.77 -4.61 -3.36 -6.05 -1.45 -7.75 -10.33 -4.53 -5.37 -1.95 -6.12

-1.70 -5.69 -5.03 -3.72 -0.82 -3.70 0.77 -5.08 -8.81 -3.11 -4.60 -2.16 -5.84

-1.09 -5.36 -4.13 -3.87 -3.34 -4.82 -0.09 -7.27 -9.10 -4.18 -4.69 -1.89 -5.51

-1.19 -4.68 -4.46 -2.25 0.01 -2.94 2.01 -3.72 -6.74 -2.04 -3.18 -0.53 -3.83

2012 2013 2014

Differentials WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket

Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

Page 13

A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel) US Gulf Coast, Pipeline Gasoline1 No. 6 3%2 Jet/Ker.

Rotterdam, Barges Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3

Singapore, Cargoes Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3

2012 2013 2014

120.03 114.66 106.68

99.32 92.96 82.82

114.82 122.77 113.25

122.89 116.69 108.16

128.03 123.40 112.63

97.65 91.47 81.04

123.44 118.98 110.75

128.08 123.24 112.53

103.94 96.39 87.22

2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

121.73 115.08 78.12 63.89 82.07 -32.6%

91.80 87.61 62.38 44.30 50.94 -44.5%

120.88 117.49 91.93 68.11 49.72 -58.9%

121.39 114.96 84.41 63.79 80.08 -34.0%

121.80 115.68 91.21 69.16 76.66 -37.1%

89.59 86.31 61.15 40.74 48.84 -45.5%

122.15 114.70 87.39 67.08 80.94 -33.7%

122.16 115.88 90.04 68.08 75.00 -38.6%

94.05 92.22 67.69 48.30 55.91 -40.6%

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

119.70 115.60 109.71 91.18 81.99 60.49 53.61 67.30 70.31 76.63 83.36 86.09 81.50 -31.9%

89.05 87.79 85.90 73.17 64.32 48.91 38.53 48.61 45.84 48.56 52.41 51.88 44.40 -50.1%

118.48 119.43 114.56 103.36 96.97 75.47 63.07 72.93 68.32 71.50 77.67 0.00 0.00 -100.0%

120.46 112.83 111.13 97.03 89.01 66.20 54.20 66.10 70.86 75.57 80.72 83.63 81.21 -32.6%

119.14 116.36 111.44 100.98 94.94 76.95 63.06 74.34 70.27 73.77 79.43 76.89 68.74 -42.3%

88.38 86.61 83.86 72.85 63.00 46.58 34.64 44.45 43.18 47.19 51.12 48.37 42.27 -52.2%

121.96 111.35 110.62 100.80 90.56 71.71 57.24 70.33 73.82 75.56 83.68 83.70 75.84 -37.8%

118.97 116.73 111.97 100.23 93.87 76.84 62.64 71.19 70.73 72.38 78.05 74.73 65.06 -45.3%

94.13 92.60 89.94 78.06 70.99 54.80 42.94 52.69 49.83 52.92 58.72 56.22 47.86 -49.2%

Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. Waterborne 3. High Sulfur (3.5-4.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon) NY Harbor

US Gulf

Los Angeles

2012 2013 2014

Gasoline1 293.97 281.29 261.23

No. 2 H.O. 302.38 292.59 269.64

Distill. 311.33 301.40 280.48

Gasoline1 281.37 269.60 248.81

Jet Fuel 305.65 292.34 269.65

Distill. 305.29 296.78 271.08

Gasoline1 303.06 292.19 266.81

Distill. 310.61 301.28 278.58

2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

288.47 274.27 208.20 153.83 191.20 -33.7%

287.67 272.07 217.63 170.70 177.20 -38.4%

295.20 282.30 233.20 184.17 189.87 -35.7%

280.40 264.97 184.63 151.73 185.43 -33.9%

287.97 279.50 218.60 163.03 176.10 -38.8%

291.90 279.07 219.93 168.87 183.17 -37.3%

310.70 281.17 195.67 175.33 227.10 -26.9%

300.67 289.33 229.37 174.50 191.60 -36.3%

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

280.20 270.50 272.10 239.80 216.50 168.30 136.40 160.70 164.40 179.30 193.80 200.50 186.00 -33.6%

277.60 275.30 263.30 242.40 224.90 185.60 161.60 187.30 163.20 172.20 183.20 176.20 155.70 -43.9%

287.90 285.00 274.00 253.20 243.00 203.40 167.80 199.10 185.60 184.30 196.50 188.80 168.40 -41.5%

271.30 263.10 260.50 217.90 193.70 142.30 127.10 160.30 167.80 173.40 188.40 194.50 186.00 -31.4%

281.70 283.90 272.90 246.00 229.70 180.10 149.60 176.60 162.90 170.20 184.90 173.20 154.90 -45.0%

284.20 282.10 270.90 250.00 231.40 178.40 153.10 182.40 171.10 177.60 191.70 180.20 162.40 -42.9%

290.80 280.80 271.90 233.80 202.40 150.80 130.10 194.20 201.70 215.40 247.20 218.70 266.30 -8.4%

293.50 294.90 279.60 257.70 240.80 189.60 155.90 195.10 172.50 181.20 204.00 189.60 171.60 -41.5%

Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 14

B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

N. A.

OECD Europe Asia-Pac

Total1

Asia

Non-OECD Non-Asia FSU

Total1

OPEC P. Gulf Non-Gulf

Total2

World Total3

Demand 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

24.1 24.0 23.6 24.1 24.1

14.7 14.3 13.8 13.6 13.4

8.2 8.2 8.5 8.4 8.2

47.0 46.4 45.9 46.0 45.6

18.5 19.3 19.9 20.7 21.1

11.3 11.4 12.1 12.1 12.2

4.1 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8

33.9 35.3 36.6 37.5 38.1

4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5

2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2

7.5 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.9

88.5 89.5 90.7 91.9 92.6

2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015

23.9 24.3 24.3 23.9 23.7 24.2 24.5 24.2 24.1

13.9 14.0 13.6 13.0 13.3 13.8 13.4 13.6 13.4

7.8 8.0 8.6 8.9 7.7 7.7 8.3 8.8 7.7

45.6 46.4 46.6 45.7 44.7 45.7 46.3 46.6 45.1

20.6 20.4 20.9 20.9 21.1 20.8 21.6 21.6 22.1

12.0 12.5 12.0 11.7 12.3 12.7 12.2 11.6 12.3

4.7 4.9 5.0 4.6 4.8 5.0 4.9 4.6 4.8

37.3 37.8 37.9 37.2 38.2 38.5 38.7 37.8 39.2

5.3 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.8 5.8

3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.4

8.5 8.5 8.5 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 9.2 9.2

91.4 92.6 93.0 91.8 91.8 93.1 93.8 93.6 93.5

Supply 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

14.1 14.6 15.8 17.1 19.0

4.1 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.3

0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5

20.1 20.1 21.0 22.2 24.0

7.8 7.7 7.9 7.7 7.7

8.5 8.5 8.1 8.0 8.1

13.6 13.6 13.6 13.8 13.9

30.8 30.7 30.5 30.5 30.7

23.3 25.7 26.2 26.2 26.8

10.7 9.6 10.6 9.8 9.2

34.6 35.8 37.6 36.7 36.6

87.4 88.6 90.9 91.2 93.7

2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015

16.6 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.8 19.1 19.7 20.0 19.7

3.3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.5

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4

21.7 22.3 22.8 23.4 23.8 24.0 24.9 25.0 24.9

7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.9 7.9 8.0

7.8 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.2

13.7 13.7 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.0

30.3 30.2 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.6 31.1 31.2 31.2

26.1 26.8 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.8 27.3 28.3

10.3 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.4 8.8 9.0

37.3 37.1 36.1 36.3 36.4 37.0 37.0 37.0 38.1

91.3 91.8 91.9 92.2 93.0 94.1 95.2 95.3 96.5

Balance 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-10.0 -9.4 -7.8 -7.0 -5.1

-10.6 -10.5 -10.3 -10.3 -10.1

-7.5 -7.6 -7.9 -7.9 -7.7

-26.9 -26.3 -24.9 -23.8 -21.6

-10.7 -11.6 -12.0 -13.0 -13.4

-2.8 -2.9 -4.0 -4.1 -4.1

9.5 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.1

-3.1 -4.6 -6.1 -7.0 -7.4

18.5 20.8 21.1 20.9 21.2

8.0 6.7 7.6 6.7 5.9

27.1 28.0 29.4 28.2 27.8

-1.1 -0.9 0.2 -0.7 1.1

2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015

-7.3 -6.9 -6.5 -5.7 -4.9 -5.1 -4.8 -4.2 -4.4

-10.6 -10.8 -10.2 -9.5 -10.1 -10.7 -9.9 -10.2 -9.9

-7.3 -7.5 -8.1 -8.4 -7.2 -7.2 -7.8 -8.4 -7.3

-23.9 -24.1 -23.8 -22.3 -20.9 -21.7 -21.4 -21.6 -20.2

-12.8 -12.9 -13.2 -13.2 -13.4 -13.2 -13.7 -13.7 -14.1

-4.2 -4.5 -4.0 -3.6 -4.3 -4.5 -3.9 -3.3 -4.1

9.0 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.0 8.8 9.0 9.4 9.2

-7.0 -7.6 -7.2 -6.5 -7.7 -7.9 -7.6 -6.6 -7.9

20.8 21.5 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.6 22.5

7.2 6.4 5.8 5.8 5.7 6.1 6.1 5.4 5.6

28.7 28.5 27.6 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.1 27.8 28.9

-0.1 -0.8 -1.1 0.4 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.7 3.0

Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and losses. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

Page 15

B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day) OECD N. A. 2012 2013 2014

Non-OECD

Europe Asia-Pac

OPEC

World

Total

Asia

Non-Asia

FSU

Total

P. Gulf Non-Gulf

Total

Total1

15.85 17.14 18.98

3.45 3.32 3.34

0.56 0.48 0.51

19.87 20.94 22.83

7.82 7.73 7.71

8.05 7.97 8.20

13.66 13.80 13.87

29.52 29.50 29.77

26.21 26.18 26.78

10.56 9.80 9.16

37.55 36.72 36.64

86.94 87.16 89.24

2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

18.62 18.99 19.69 19.97 19.74 6.0%

3.25 3.13 3.46 3.44 3.49 7.4%

0.49 0.52 0.50 0.43 0.43 -12.2%

22.37 22.64 23.66 23.84 23.66 5.8%

7.66 7.54 7.86 7.90 7.95 3.8%

8.05 8.18 8.38 8.41 8.23 2.2%

13.84 13.81 13.93 14.05 13.98 1.0%

29.56 29.53 30.18 30.36 30.17 2.1%

26.81 26.88 26.80 27.31 28.31 5.6%

8.95 9.34 9.36 8.83 8.97 0.2%

36.44 36.98 36.97 37.03 38.13 4.6%

88.37 89.15 90.81 91.23 91.96 4.1%

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

18.60 18.81 18.94 19.20 19.09 19.65 19.37 19.83 20.11 20.12 19.54 19.80 19.56 5.2%

3.26 3.05 3.15 3.41 3.41 3.46 3.50 3.37 3.48 3.54 3.53 3.45 3.35 2.8%

0.50 0.50 0.52 0.51 0.49 0.51 0.47 0.47 0.37 0.45 0.39 0.47 0.53 6.0%

22.36 22.37 22.61 23.12 23.00 23.63 23.33 23.68 23.96 24.12 23.46 23.72 23.44 4.8%

7.52 7.52 7.61 7.51 7.64 7.52 7.72 7.95 8.01 7.98 7.89 8.04 7.91 5.2%

8.14 8.18 8.24 8.27 8.23 8.20 8.29 8.42 8.41 8.22 8.23 8.19 8.14 0.0%

13.70 13.86 13.89 13.90 13.86 14.02 13.99 14.06 14.06 14.01 14.01 13.97 13.87 1.2%

29.35 29.55 29.75 29.69 29.73 29.75 30.01 30.44 30.48 30.22 30.13 30.19 29.92 1.9%

27.00 26.73 26.89 26.68 26.67 27.18 27.04 26.98 27.82 28.09 28.22 28.68 28.70 6.3%

9.15 9.29 9.56 9.62 9.40 9.02 8.88 8.72 8.89 9.10 8.98 8.87 8.87 -3.1%

36.90 36.80 37.23 37.13 36.84 37.01 36.80 36.61 37.55 37.96 38.00 38.44 38.45 4.2%

88.61 88.72 89.59 89.94 89.57 90.39 90.14 90.73 91.99 92.30 91.59 92.35 91.81 3.6%

R/P Ratio2

30.5

11.4

20.7

27.5

11.5

22.5

25.1

20.8

74.8

122.7

84.1

49.3

Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels) North America

Europe

Asia-Pacific

OECD

Crude

Product

Total

Crude

Product

Total

Crude

Product

Total

Crude

Product1

Total2

501 500 553

704 670 727

1,362 1,315 1,443

307 307 311

539 497 505

906 869 880

159 145 157

170 170 169

397 382 389

967 952 1,020

1,413 1,337 1,401

2,665 2,566 2,712

2Q 2014 530 3Q 2014 512 4Q 2014 553 1Q 2015 625 2Q 2015 624 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 17.7%

685 720 727 695 745 8.8%

1,382 1,411 1,443 1,483 1,545 11.8%

316 305 311 347 344 8.6%

490 512 505 524 530 8.0%

878 887 880 942 944 7.5%

165 164 157 178 200 21.0%

157 183 169 153 165 5.3%

392 422 389 392 428 9.1%

1,012 981 1,020 1,150 1,167 15.4%

1,332 1,415 1,401 1,372 1,440 8.1%

2,652 2,720 2,712 2,817 2,916 10.0%

Jun-14 530 Jul-14 519 Aug-14 511 Sep-14 512 Oct-14 538 Nov-14 544 Dec-14 553 Jan-15 576 Feb-15 601 Mar-15 625 Apr-15 638 May-15 630 Jun-15 624 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 17.7%

685 703 713 720 689 706 727 714 693 695 704 725 745 8.8%

1,382 1,395 1,401 1,411 1,409 1,424 1,443 1,456 1,454 1,483 1,512 1,529 1,545 11.8%

316 309 302 305 304 298 311 314 322 347 350 344 344 8.6%

490 494 517 512 500 509 505 529 526 524 520 533 530 8.0%

878 871 890 887 875 877 880 905 914 942 940 947 944 7.5%

165 163 167 164 169 156 157 167 173 178 171 198 200 21.0%

157 166 180 183 180 182 169 167 158 153 158 168 165 5.3%

392 399 418 422 418 406 389 399 392 392 391 431 428 9.1%

1,012 992 980 981 1,011 998 1,020 1,058 1,096 1,150 1,158 1,172 1,167 15.4%

1,332 1,362 1,410 1,415 1,368 1,397 1,401 1,410 1,377 1,372 1,382 1,426 1,440 8.1%

2,652 2,665 2,709 2,720 2,703 2,707 2,712 2,760 2,761 2,817 2,842 2,907 2,916 10.0%

2012 2013 2014

Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 16

B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day) Persian Gulf UAE Kuwait

Arabia

Iran

9.78 9.66 9.72

3.00 2.68 2.81

2.65 2.76 2.76

2.73 2.81 2.80

0.74 0.73 0.71

2.50 2.50 2.46

2Q 2014 9.72 3Q 2014 9.81 4Q 2014 9.64 1Q 2015 9.87 2Q 2015 10.33 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.3%

2.84 2.79 2.80 2.82 2.85 0.4%

2.74 2.81 2.75 2.84 2.87 4.7%

2.80 2.84 2.78 2.80 2.77 -1.1%

0.71 0.72 0.68 0.67 0.66 -7.0%

2.48 2.48 2.44 2.39 2.44 -1.6%

Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

10.01 9.68 9.73 9.68 9.61 9.62 9.69 9.71 10.19 10.21 10.31 10.48 10.40 3.9%

2.76 2.80 2.78 2.76 2.81 2.84 2.82 2.84 2.79 2.88 2.85 2.82 2.87 4.0%

2.83 2.82 2.78 2.74 2.74 2.80 2.84 2.84 2.84 2.87 2.87 2.88 2.91 2.8%

2.80 0.73 2.86 0.73 2.87 0.69 2.82 0.69 2.76 0.68 2.77 0.67 2.80 0.67 2.80 0.67 2.80 0.68 2.81 0.67 2.77 0.66 2.74 0.66 2.74 0.63 -2.1% -13.7%

Quotas3 Over/Under 4

8.05 3.34 2.22 2.22 0.73 29.2% -14.1% 31.1% 23.4% -13.7%

2012 2013 2014

Qatar

Venez. Nigeria 2.10 1.95 1.90

Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-11 OPEC-11 Libya Algeria Angola Ecuador Total1 Target 1.39 0.90 0.46

1.17 1.15 1.12

Iraq2

1.78 1.72 1.66

0.50 0.52 0.55

28.35 27.38 26.95

30.00 30.00 30.00

2.95 3.08 3.33

1.91 0.23 1.14 1.89 0.57 1.15 1.88 0.67 1.13 1.81 0.37 1.11 1.78 0.46 1.11 -6.8% 100.0% -2.6%

1.63 1.71 1.72 1.77 1.76 8.0%

0.55 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.0%

26.75 27.31 27.03 27.00 27.58 3.1%

30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00

3.33 3.22 3.48 3.49 3.91 17.4%

2.48 2.48 2.48 2.46 2.44 2.42 2.40 2.38 2.40 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 -1.6%

1.85 1.88 1.89 1.88 1.89 1.86 1.87 1.83 1.74 1.80 1.76 1.79 1.77 -4.3%

0.42 0.53 0.78 0.87 0.69 0.44 0.34 0.29 0.48 0.52 0.45 0.42 0.39 -7.1%

1.73 1.71 1.72 1.75 1.69 1.73 1.77 1.79 1.75 1.73 1.77 1.78 1.80 4.0%

0.56 0.56 0.56 0.54 0.55 0.55 0.56 0.53 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.55 -1.8%

27.31 27.17 27.39 27.31 26.99 26.82 26.85 26.78 27.34 27.57 27.52 27.66 27.61 1.1%

30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00

3.15 3.14 3.36 3.32 3.39 3.73 3.44 3.32 3.70 3.75 3.84 4.15 4.18 32.7%

1.99 22.6%

1.67 6.0%

1.47 1.20 -73.5% -7.5%

1.52 0.43 18.4% 27.9%

30.00 -8.0%

1.16 1.15 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.12 1.10 1.10 1.12 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 -4.3%

Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. 3. OPEC-10 production targets. 4. As of latest month. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel) North America

Europe

Asia-Pacific

OECD

Input

Util.

Margin1

Input

Util.

Margin2

Input

Util.

Margin3

Input

Util.

18.1 18.4 18.9

86.3 87.7 90.0

1.72 1.40 1.67

12.1 11.5 11.4

79.5 75.2 75.0

5.80 3.48 3.35

6.8 6.7 6.5

75.8 75.1 73.2

-0.65 -1.63 -1.98

37.0 36.6 36.8

81.9 81.0 81.6

2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

19.0 19.4 18.9 18.5 19.3 1.7%

90.4 92.4 90.0 88.2 92.0

4.28 2.99 -1.03 5.93 5.89 37.5%

11.1 11.7 11.8 12.0 11.9 7.1%

72.9 76.6 77.4 78.5 78.0

2.65 4.79 4.72 7.03 8.10 205.2%

6.1 6.6 6.6 7.1 6.4 5.9%

68.2 73.6 74.1 78.8 72.1

-3.3 -2.7 -0.1 2.6 0.5 -113.9%

36.2 37.6 37.3 37.5 37.6 4.1%

80.1 83.4 82.6 83.0 83.3

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

19.1 19.6 19.6 19.0 18.2 19.0 19.5 18.5 18.4 18.6 19.1 19.3 19.5 2.1%

90.9 93.7 93.2 90.4 86.6 90.5 92.8 88.1 87.7 88.7 91.1 0.0 0.0

0.51 0.51 3.86 4.59 0.19 -0.87 -2.42 2.80 8.01 6.98 4.55 5.58 7.53 1376.5%

10.8 11.5 12.0 11.6 11.8 11.9 11.7 11.9 12.2 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.0 10.5%

70.9 75.4 78.4 76.0 77.6 77.9 76.8 77.9 79.9 77.6 77.6 0.0 0.0

1.75 3.96 4.55 5.86 4.56 5.93 3.68 5.75 6.60 8.75 7.71 7.40 9.18 425%

5.8 6.5 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.3 7.7%

65.0 72.2 75.5 73.1 69.9 74.7 77.7 79.7 80.0 76.8 75.2 0.0 0.0

-4.3 -4.3 -3.1 -0.7 -2.0 1.0 0.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 0.5 0.7 0.2 -104.4%

35.7 37.6 38.3 37.1 36.2 37.5 38.1 37.5 37.7 37.3 37.7 37.5 37.7 5.6%

79.1 83.2 84.7 82.1 80.3 83.1 84.4 83.0 83.6 82.6 83.4 0.0 0.0

2012 2013 2014

Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

Page 17

C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day) Supply 10.82 12.11 13.67

2012 2013 2014

United States1 Demand Net-Imp. 18.54 7.41 18.89 6.20 19.03 5.04

Stk. Chg. 0.15 -0.13 0.26

Supply 0.15 0.19 0.31

East Demand 5.16 5.23 5.45

Balance -5.02 -5.04 -5.14

Supply 2.57 2.90 3.35

Mid-West Demand 4.79 4.88 4.91

Balance -2.21 -1.97 -1.56

1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

12.84 13.51 13.93 14.38 14.45 12.5%

18.81 18.71 19.16 19.45 19.29 2.6%

5.39 5.18 4.99 4.62 4.93 -8.4%

-0.07 0.66 0.23 0.24 0.56

0.26 0.28 0.33 0.37 0.36 40.5%

5.67 5.26 5.34 5.55 5.81 2.4%

-5.41 -4.98 -5.00 -5.18 -5.45

3.06 3.28 3.48 3.55 3.56 16.1%

4.76 4.79 4.98 5.10 4.99 4.8%

-1.70 -1.51 -1.49 -1.55 -1.43

May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

13.32 13.79 13.80 13.93 14.05 14.23 14.33 14.59 14.24 14.34 14.76 15.12 14.91 11.9%

18.52 18.83 19.16 19.28 19.04 19.63 19.21 19.52 19.25 19.40 19.24 19.04 19.12 3.2%

5.26 4.66 4.99 4.78 5.19 4.79 4.60 4.48 4.83 4.54 5.43 4.36 4.60 -12.6%

0.94 0.15 0.13 0.13 0.45 -0.16 0.39 0.47 0.57 0.13 0.99 0.90 0.73

0.29 0.29 0.31 0.34 0.35 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.36 0.33 0.39 0.42 0.43 51.6%

5.28 5.21 5.48 5.33 5.21 5.64 5.44 5.56 5.64 5.99 5.79 5.49 5.52 4.6%

-4.99 -4.91 -5.17 -4.99 -4.85 -5.28 -5.08 -5.18 -5.28 -5.65 -5.40 -5.07 -5.09

3.24 3.41 3.46 3.46 3.53 3.51 3.51 3.65 3.54 3.54 3.59 3.58 3.65 12.5%

4.82 4.87 4.98 4.94 5.02 5.19 5.07 5.05 4.91 5.08 4.97 4.88 5.01 4.0%

-1.58 -1.46 -1.52 -1.48 -1.49 -1.68 -1.56 -1.40 -1.37 -1.54 -1.38 -1.30 -1.37

100.0%

100.0%

2.9%

28.9%

24.5%

26.2%

% of Total2

2012 2013 2014

Supply 5.88 6.77 7.65

South-Central Demand Balance 5.16 0.73 5.28 1.49 5.16 2.50

Supply 0.85 0.87 0.98

North-West Demand 0.69 0.71 0.71

Balance 0.16 0.16 0.27

Supply 1.36 1.37 1.38

West Demand 2.75 2.79 2.81

Balance -1.39 -1.42 -1.43

1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

7.21 7.59 7.80 8.01 8.08 12.1%

5.01 5.07 5.24 5.31 5.02 0.2%

2.20 2.51 2.56 2.70 3.06

0.91 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.08 18.7%

0.68 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.70 3.0%

0.23 0.26 0.28 0.32 0.38

1.40 1.39 1.31 1.42 1.37 -2.3%

2.69 2.87 2.89 2.78 2.78 3.3%

-1.29 -1.48 -1.58 -1.36 -1.41

May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

7.46 7.71 7.74 7.88 7.78 7.93 8.01 8.11 7.96 8.03 8.27 8.59 8.39 12.4%

4.95 5.07 5.09 5.35 5.27 5.19 5.35 5.39 5.28 4.78 5.00 5.05 5.07 2.4%

2.51 2.64 2.65 2.53 2.51 2.74 2.65 2.72 2.68 3.24 3.27 3.54 3.32

0.94 1.01 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.04 1.03 1.08 1.14 1.14 1.10 17.6%

0.67 0.76 0.70 0.74 0.71 0.73 0.66 0.74 0.72 0.73 0.66 0.69 0.66 -1.9%

0.26 0.24 0.30 0.26 0.29 0.29 0.36 0.30 0.30 0.35 0.48 0.46 0.44

1.40 1.37 1.29 1.26 1.38 1.41 1.43 1.42 1.35 1.36 1.38 1.39 1.34 -4.0%

2.80 2.92 2.92 2.93 2.83 2.88 2.68 2.78 2.69 2.82 2.82 2.93 2.86 1.9%

-1.41 -1.55 -1.63 -1.67 -1.45 -1.47 -1.25 -1.36 -1.33 -1.46 -1.44 -1.54 -1.51

% of Total2

56.2%

26.5%

7.4%

3.4%

9.0%

14.9%

Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from nonconventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 18

C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day) Finished Petroleum Products Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. 1.40 3.73 0.35 1.42 3.84 0.32 1.47 4.01 0.26

Total1 16.15 16.32 16.64

NGLs Total 2.32 2.45 2.40

Petroleum Total2 18.54 18.89 19.03

2012 2013 2014

Gasoline 8.70 8.77 8.92

1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

8.53 9.01 9.09 9.05 8.81 3.3%

1.39 1.47 1.51 1.50 1.45 3.9%

4.17 3.93 3.86 4.08 4.27 2.6%

0.23 0.26 0.24 0.30 0.24 5.5%

16.07 16.63 16.96 16.90 16.62 3.4%

2.66 2.06 2.26 2.60 2.72 2.3%

18.81 18.71 19.16 19.45 19.29 2.6%

May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

9.02 9.03 9.22 9.29 8.78 9.20 8.93 9.02 8.72 8.65 9.06 9.14 9.25 2.6%

1.40 1.56 1.54 1.52 1.48 1.46 1.49 1.56 1.37 1.44 1.54 1.48 1.51 7.3%

3.94 3.88 3.86 3.82 3.91 4.24 3.88 4.14 4.24 4.54 4.05 4.00 3.79 -3.7%

0.24 0.26 0.24 0.21 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.30 0.27 0.20 0.26 0.15 0.23 -0.4%

16.56 16.80 17.13 17.06 16.67 17.22 16.60 16.87 16.50 16.56 16.80 16.74 16.84 1.7%

1.92 2.13 2.11 2.35 2.32 2.42 2.61 2.76 2.83 2.84 2.50 2.34 2.17 13.4%

18.52 18.83 19.16 19.28 19.04 19.63 19.21 19.52 19.25 19.40 19.24 19.04 19.12 3.2%

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

2012 2013 2014

East 152 151 158

Petroleum Stocks1 Mid-West S-Cent N-West 287 1,178 38 269 1,162 39 289 1,227 42

West 151 139 140

U.S. 1,807 1,760 1,856

Crude Oil Finished Products Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. 1,060 57 39 135 34 1,054 40 37 127 38 1,085 31 38 136 34

Total3 314 291 287

1Q 2014 139 2Q 2014 156 3Q 2014 156 4Q 2014 158 1Q 2015 152 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.4%

252 265 275 289 316 25.4%

1,178 1,213 1,221 1,227 1,247 5.8%

42 39 41 42 44 5.2%

142 139 142 140 150 5.3%

1,753 1,814 1,835 1,856 1,908 8.9%

1,080 1,075 1,052 1,085 1,166 8.0%

34 29 29 31 27 -21.5%

36 36 40 38 37 3.3%

115 122 131 136 128 11.2%

36 37 37 34 38 4.8%

275 274 283 287 288 4.7%

May-14 154 Jun-14 156 Jul-14 154 Aug-14 154 Sep-14 156 Oct-14 149 Nov-14 148 Dec-14 158 Jan-15 164 Feb-15 152 Mar-15 152 Apr-15 157 May-15 164 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.3%

258 265 263 268 275 269 274 289 297 302 316 323 320 23.9%

1,210 1,213 1,223 1,224 1,221 1,232 1,237 1,227 1,227 1,235 1,247 1,267 1,285 6.3%

41 39 39 40 41 40 42 42 42 42 44 45 44 5.2%

145 139 139 136 142 141 141 140 145 146 150 144 145 -0.4%

1,809 1,814 1,818 1,822 1,835 1,830 1,842 1,856 1,874 1,878 1,908 1,935 1,958 8.2%

1,085 1,075 1,060 1,052 1,052 1,073 1,078 1,085 1,112 1,139 1,166 1,174 1,172 8.0%

31 29 28 28 29 27 30 31 30 31 27 26 27 -14.4%

39 36 35 36 40 36 36 38 38 39 37 38 42 9.5%

122 122 126 128 131 120 126 136 132 123 128 129 134 10.1%

38 37 36 38 37 37 36 34 34 37 38 39 41 6.9%

282 274 275 276 283 265 274 287 287 284 288 289 301 7.0%

Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

Page 19

C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)

2012 2013 2014

Canada 2.55 2.59 2.58

Region of Origin Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa 0.47 1.12 0.03 0.74 0.39 0.74 -0.08 0.37 0.29 0.56 -0.12 0.17

1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

2.58 2.47 2.57 2.72 2.97 15.2%

0.39 0.29 0.26 0.21 0.16 -59.2%

0.54 0.52 0.59 0.59 0.65 21.2%

-0.04 -0.11 -0.26 -0.07 -0.12 221.1%

May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

2.59 2.38 2.39 2.55 2.78 2.64 2.51 3.01 2.95 2.93 3.03 2.84 2.51 -3.1%

0.26 0.32 0.17 0.33 0.29 0.23 0.26 0.13 0.04 0.09 0.34 0.15 0.03 -89.9%

0.51 0.36 0.63 0.62 0.53 0.56 0.81 0.38 0.63 0.51 0.82 0.78 0.71 39.1%

-0.04 -0.16 -0.28 -0.35 -0.16 -0.01 -0.11 -0.11 -0.12 -0.10 -0.14 -0.36 0.05 -220.5%

% of Total3

54.5%

0.6%

15.5%

M.E. 2.15 1.99 1.85

Total1 7.41 6.20 5.04

OPEC Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria 0.87 1.36 0.42 0.71 1.32 0.24 0.71 1.16 0.04

0.16 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.13 -17.6%

2.12 2.04 1.84 1.41 1.39 -34.4%

5.39 5.18 4.99 4.62 4.93 -8.4%

0.71 0.72 0.78 0.64 0.68 -4.0%

1.45 1.29 1.04 0.88 0.93 -35.7%

0.13 0.21 0.16 0.13 0.24 0.13 0.08 0.24 0.12 0.11 0.17 0.14 0.19 48.1%

1.92 1.92 2.14 1.76 1.62 1.36 1.58 1.29 1.32 1.41 1.44 1.52 1.71 -10.9%

5.26 4.66 4.99 4.78 5.19 4.79 4.60 4.48 4.83 4.54 5.43 4.36 4.60 -12.6%

0.69 0.67 0.82 0.76 0.74 0.61 0.71 0.59 0.60 0.71 0.74 0.80 0.77 11.8%

1.24 1.02 1.23 0.89 1.00 0.82 1.01 0.81 0.82 0.94 1.04 1.20 1.21 -2.4%

1.0%

4.2%

37.1% 100.0%

16.8%

26.3%

Total2 4.10 3.47 2.98

P. Gulf 2.14 1.99 1.86

0.05 0.07 0.01 0.03 0.04 -28.4%

3.19 3.14 3.08 2.50 2.49 -22.1%

2.14 2.04 1.84 1.41 1.40 -34.6%

0.01 0.06 0.02 -0.03 0.04 -0.01 -0.01 0.10 0.04 -0.01 0.09 0.03 0.05 650.0%

2.95 2.98 3.34 2.93 2.97 2.36 2.67 2.45 2.36 2.55 2.56 2.63 2.82 -4.4%

1.92 1.92 2.14 1.76 1.62 1.37 1.58 1.29 1.33 1.42 1.45 1.53 1.72 -10.1%

1.0%

61.4%

37.5%

Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) PAD District S-Cent N-West 3.60 0.42 4.33 0.50 5.00 0.58

West 1.12 1.11 1.11

U.S. Total 6.22 7.31 8.35

Alaska 0.54 0.52 0.50

Major Producers Calif.1 Louis. Texas 0.58 0.19 1.83 0.59 0.20 2.47 0.60 0.19 3.04

0.54 0.55 0.61 0.63 0.68 24.7%

1.17 1.11 1.08 1.08 1.14 -2.5%

8.05 8.02 8.48 8.85 9.38 16.4%

0.55 0.52 0.48 0.47 0.53 -5.0%

0.62 0.59 0.60 0.61 0.62 -0.2%

0.20 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 -6.7%

2.91 2.90 3.07 3.26 3.52 21.0%

1.27 1.31 1.39 1.43 1.46 15.1%

4.92 5.04 4.97 4.95 5.31 5.26 5.30 5.41 5.25 6.15 5.55 5.21 5.78 17.6%

0.56 0.58 0.58 0.60 0.65 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.62 0.74 0.68 0.66 0.76 34.5%

1.13 1.14 1.13 1.05 1.06 1.01 1.09 1.15 1.09 1.25 1.09 1.04 1.11 -1.8%

8.19 8.38 8.36 8.26 8.82 8.65 8.86 9.05 8.73 10.21 9.19 8.62 9.53 16.4%

0.53 0.54 0.52 0.47 0.44 0.40 0.48 0.54 0.50 0.58 0.50 0.46 0.51 -3.6%

0.60 0.60 0.60 0.58 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.59 0.67 0.58 0.58 0.60 -0.1%

0.20 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.18 -11.5%

2.97 3.01 3.02 2.97 3.21 3.18 3.25 3.36 3.29 3.82 3.46 3.23 3.67 23.8%

1.33 1.40 1.33 1.38 1.45 1.44 1.42 1.42 1.34 1.60 1.44 1.36 1.41 5.8%

8.6

10.1

16.5

9.6

18.0

15.2

9.1

8.3

9.6

2012 2013 2014

East 0.02 0.03 0.04

Mid-West 1.06 1.34 1.62

1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 37.0%

1.52 1.51 1.67 1.77 1.86 22.2%

4.78 4.82 5.08 5.32 5.65 18.1%

May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 30.0%

1.54 1.59 1.64 1.61 1.75 1.73 1.80 1.80 1.72 2.03 1.82 1.67 1.84 18.8%

R/P Ratio3

8.5

8.5

G. of Mex.2 1.25 1.28 1.35

Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 20

C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) East 2012 2013 2014

Input 1.04 1.10 1.09

Util. 87.9 85.1 84.2

2Q 2014 1.13 3Q 2014 1.13 4Q 2014 1.11 1Q 2015 1.14 2Q 2015 0.76 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -32.5% May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

1.15 1.17 1.14 1.09 1.16 1.13 1.11 1.08 1.09 1.27 1.08 1.13 1.16 0.7%

% of Total1

7.0%

Mid-West Input Util. 3.47 94.6 3.42 90.7 3.52 92.5

South-Central Input Util. 8.14 93.7 8.22 90.4 8.38 91.5

North-West Input Util. 0.58 93.6 0.58 92.7 0.58 90.5

West Input Util. 2.66 89.3 2.56 84.8 2.57 87.0

U.S. Input Util. 15.89 92.7 15.88 89.2 16.14 90.4

87.1 87.0 86.6 90.9 90.1

3.58 3.62 3.48 3.60 2.46 -31.2%

93.8 95.0 91.5 93.8 96.0

8.35 8.68 8.49 8.54 5.80 -30.5%

91.2 94.9 92.6 93.2 93.9

0.57 0.61 0.59 0.60 0.40 -29.7%

89.3 94.6 91.5 92.6 92.7

2.54 2.59 2.59 2.63 1.62 -36.3%

85.0 89.0 89.0 91.5 82.9

16.17 16.63 16.25 16.51 11.05 -31.7%

90.4 93.4 91.3 92.9 92.2

88.5 89.9 87.5 84.3 89.1 87.2 87.5 85.1 85.5 102.6 85.0 89.1 91.1

3.59 3.66 3.72 3.58 3.57 3.28 3.47 3.69 3.43 3.84 3.52 3.70 3.68 2.5%

94.1 96.1 97.6 93.9 93.6 86.1 91.4 97.1 88.8 101.1 91.5 96.4 95.7

8.32 8.22 8.79 8.78 8.48 8.13 8.60 8.74 8.20 9.20 8.24 8.66 8.75 5.1%

90.9 89.8 96.0 95.9 92.6 88.7 93.8 95.2 89.1 101.1 89.6 93.5 94.3

0.59 0.56 0.57 0.64 0.63 0.56 0.61 0.61 0.58 0.65 0.56 0.60 0.60 1.4%

92.8 87.4 88.1 98.9 96.8 86.4 94.4 93.7 90.0 100.6 87.2 92.9 92.6

2.53 2.47 2.64 2.59 2.53 2.54 2.58 2.64 2.51 2.92 2.46 2.43 2.44 -3.8%

83.4 84.8 90.9 89.2 87.0 87.4 88.6 90.8 86.1 104.5 84.4 82.7 83.0

16.18 16.07 16.86 16.68 16.36 15.64 16.37 16.75 15.81 17.87 15.86 16.52 16.61 2.7%

90.2 90.3 94.6 93.7 91.8 87.7 92.0 94.2 88.4 101.7 88.7 92.0 92.5

22.1%

52.6%

3.6%

14.7%

100.0%

Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)

2012 2013 2014

NY Harbor (East Coast Comp.) 11.87 9.20 8.62

Chicago (WTI) 26.89 21.63 16.57

US Gulf (WTS) 14.78 12.83 11.76

Los Angeles (ANS) 11.65 10.25 8.68

2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

8.85 9.30 9.85 12.42 17.92 102.5%

18.85 17.07 13.81 15.57 19.00 0.8%

15.02 13.06 7.28 14.05 15.05 0.2%

13.18 10.22 5.02 15.73 21.91 66.3%

Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

7.70 6.78 10.08 11.05 7.62 11.10 10.82 10.14 13.35 13.76 12.22 19.58 21.95 185.1%

19.13 12.98 18.41 19.82 17.35 17.47 6.61 6.45 17.85 22.41 16.73 19.79 20.49 7.1%

13.50 11.20 13.87 14.10 9.48 8.36 4.01 10.11 15.52 16.51 14.22 14.96 15.98 18.4%

11.20 7.23 11.56 11.86 6.81 6.10 2.14 3.71 21.14 22.35 20.81 28.22 16.69 49.0%

Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite. Source: Oil and Gas Journal.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

Page 21

D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)

2012 2013 2014

Supply 3.77 4.04 4.35

Canada Demand Net-Exp 1.72 2.06 1.65 2.40 1.56 2.80

Stk. Chg. 0.01 0.01 0.02

Supply 0.26 0.28 0.27

East Demand 1.05 0.98 0.93

Balance -0.80 -0.70 -0.67

Supply 3.51 3.76 4.08

West Demand 0.67 0.66 0.63

Balance 2.84 3.09 3.45

1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

4.38 4.30 4.36 4.54 4.65 6.3%

1.66 1.48 1.53 1.58 1.69 2.0%

2.74 2.76 2.85 3.05 2.92 6.7%

0.02 -0.06 0.02 0.08 -0.04

0.34 0.31 0.28 0.31 0.30 -11.4%

0.98 0.89 0.90 0.95 1.03 5.0%

-0.64 -0.58 -0.63 -0.64 -0.73

4.04 3.98 4.09 4.24 4.35 7.8%

0.67 0.59 0.63 0.63 0.66 -2.5%

3.36 3.39 3.46 3.61 3.69

Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

4.46 4.32 4.24 4.33 4.37 4.34 4.38 4.53 4.52 4.58 4.69 4.69 4.58 2.8%

1.56 1.42 1.55 1.47 1.56 1.51 1.53 1.42 1.62 1.68 1.69 1.71 1.67 6.9%

2.87 2.87 2.62 2.78 2.89 2.82 2.84 3.23 3.02 2.89 2.96 2.93 2.88 0.2%

-0.02 -0.02 -0.07 -0.08 0.08 -0.01 -0.01 0.12 0.12 0.00 -0.04 -0.05 -0.03

0.35 0.30 0.33 0.31 0.30 0.23 0.30 0.27 0.34 0.31 0.33 0.31 0.27 -21.9%

0.93 0.85 0.93 0.88 0.94 0.86 0.91 0.85 0.98 1.02 1.01 1.06 1.03 10.7%

-0.58 -0.56 -0.60 -0.57 -0.64 -0.62 -0.61 -0.58 -0.63 -0.71 -0.68 -0.75 -0.75

4.11 4.02 3.91 4.01 4.07 4.11 4.08 4.26 4.17 4.28 4.36 4.38 4.31 4.9%

0.64 0.57 0.62 0.59 0.62 0.65 0.62 0.57 0.64 0.67 0.68 0.65 0.64 1.4%

3.47 3.45 3.29 3.42 3.45 3.45 3.46 3.69 3.53 3.61 3.68 3.73 3.66

100.0%

100.0%

6.0%

61.5%

94.0%

38.5%

% of Total1

Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

2012 2013 2014

D2: Canada Demand by Product

D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks

(million barrels per day)

(million barrels)

Gasoline 0.74 0.77 0.78

Finished Products Distil. Resid. 0.53 0.08 0.56 0.05 0.56 0.07

Total1 1.81 1.84 1.86

NGLs Total 0.56 0.66 0.65

Petrol. Total2 2.37 2.50 2.51

2012 2013 2014

Finished Products Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 18.2 18.7 2.8 56.0 16.5 13.8 2.4 52.4 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4

Crude Oil Total 100.0 98.9 105.9

Petrol. Total2 156.0 151.3 165.3

1Q 2014 0.74 2Q 2014 0.79 3Q 2014 0.82 4Q 2014 0.78 1Q 2015 0.74 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -0.3%

0.58 0.52 0.58 0.57 0.57 -1.4%

0.08 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 -12.6%

1.83 1.79 1.97 1.85 1.79 -2.4%

0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.0%

2.48 2.44 2.61 2.49 2.44 -1.8%

1Q 2014 19.3 16.9 2Q 2014 17.5 15.2 3Q 2014 17.9 13.5 4Q 2014 18.9 18.1 1Q 2015 17.0 15.7 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -11.9% -7.2%

2.6 2.5 1.9 3.0 2.9 11.1%

57.8 54.8 54.1 59.4 54.1 -6.4%

101.8 101.0 103.1 105.9 104.0 2.1%

159.6 155.8 157.2 165.3 158.1 -1.0%

Mar-14 0.74 Apr-14 0.75 May-14 0.80 Jun-14 0.83 Jul-14 0.85 Aug-14 0.81 Sep-14 0.79 Oct-14 0.79 Nov-14 0.78 Dec-14 0.78 Jan-15 0.75 Feb-15 0.75 Mar-15 0.72 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.5%

0.55 0.49 0.54 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.63 0.62 0.56 0.54 0.56 0.62 0.54 -2.1%

0.07 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.05 0.08 0.07 -92.8%

1.73 1.67 1.80 1.90 2.01 1.93 1.96 1.91 1.81 1.82 1.76 1.87 1.74 0.5%

0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.0%

2.38 2.31 2.45 2.54 2.66 2.57 2.61 2.56 2.46 2.47 2.40 2.52 2.39 0.4%

Mar-14 19.3 16.9 Apr-14 19.3 19.1 May-14 17.3 14.3 Jun-14 17.5 15.2 Jul-14 19.4 14.6 Aug-14 18.3 15.0 Sep-14 17.9 13.5 Oct-14 16.8 14.9 Nov-14 18.3 13.7 Dec-14 18.9 18.1 Jan-15 19.6 19.1 Feb-15 18.2 16.3 Mar-15 17.0 15.7 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -11.9% -7.2%

2.6 2.8 3.1 2.5 3.1 2.7 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.9 11.1%

57.8 59.9 55.1 54.8 58.3 58.4 54.1 53.4 56.1 59.4 62.1 54.6 54.1 -6.4%

101.8 103.6 101.6 101.0 103.2 103.1 103.1 106.7 104.7 105.9 104.0 103.2 104.0 2.1%

159.6 163.4 156.7 155.8 161.5 161.6 157.2 160.1 160.8 165.3 166.1 157.8 158.1 -1.0%

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/ oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 22

D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) Major Producers B.C. N.W.T. 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.01

Alta. 2.47 2.63 2.91

Sask. 0.47 0.47 0.51

1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2015 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

2.87 2.81 2.92 3.04 3.17 10.6%

0.51 0.51 0.50 0.53 0.51 -1.2%

0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 18.3%

Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Yr-on-Yr Chg.

2.92 2.83 2.75 2.86 2.91 2.93 2.90 3.06 2.98 3.07 3.16 3.21 3.13 7.1%

0.53 0.52 0.51 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.50 0.50 -5.3%

0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 20.6%

2012 2013 2014

Atlantic 0.20 0.23 0.22

Canada Total1 3.25 3.46 3.76

Light 0.86 0.91 0.94

SCO 0.90 0.94 0.95

Petroleum Type Heavy Bitumen 0.45 0.89 0.45 0.98 0.46 1.21

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -5.4%

0.24 0.22 0.19 0.22 0.22 -7.6%

3.74 3.66 3.72 3.90 4.02 7.3%

0.97 0.94 0.89 0.95 0.93 -3.9%

1.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 1.09 9.5%

0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.45 -3.4%

1.13 1.20 1.23 1.28 1.32 17.3%

0.18 0.20 0.23 0.27 0.22 21.1%

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -5.2%

0.24 0.20 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.15 0.21 0.18 0.25 0.22 0.24 0.22 0.19 -20.8%

3.82 3.68 3.60 3.69 3.73 3.70 3.74 3.89 3.87 3.94 4.04 4.07 3.94 3.3%

0.99 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.86 0.91 0.91 0.98 0.96 0.97 0.93 0.89 -10.2%

0.97 0.87 0.82 0.93 0.95 0.90 0.98 0.97 1.04 0.99 1.10 1.11 1.07 10.0%

0.47 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.44 0.44 -7.4%

1.19 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.23 1.28 1.19 1.33 1.19 1.30 1.31 1.34 1.32 10.2%

0.19 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.26 0.26 0.28 0.20 0.22 0.23 22.5%

NGLs 0.14 0.15 0.22

Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)

2012 2013 2014

Mexico 22 24 17

U.S. 16 15 164

Non-OPEC U.K. Norway 25 50 36 55 3 12

1Q 2014 14 146 2Q 2014 2 189 3Q 2014 31 202 4Q 2014 21 118 1Q 2015 0 303 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -100.0% 107.3% Mar-14 18 Apr-14 4 May-14 1 Jun-14 0 Jul-14 18 Aug-14 30 Sep-14 46 Oct-14 31 Nov-14 19 Dec-14 12 Jan-15 0 Feb-15 0 Mar-15 0 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -100.0% % of Total3

0.0%

0 11 0 2 0 -

216 0 292 276 0 329 276 0 353 0 300 286 322 49%

0 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0.0%

54.7%

0.0%

0 19 11 19 7 >100%

Total1 372 466 453

Algeria 142 71 38

OPEC Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. 52 67 6 47 16 2 27 0 1

431 450 479 451 485 12.4%

70 12 28 43 61 -13.0%

17 25 46 21 30 78.9%

0 372 6 344 21 476 30 529 8 467 26 565 0 406 23 393 0 454 34 505 20 495 0 439 0 522 -100.0% 40.2% 0.0%

88.7%

0 0 0 0 0 0.0%

Total2 350 177 90

P. Gulf 150 57 23

4 143 52 0 79 42 0 74 0 0 64 0 0 91 0 -100.0% -36.1% -100.0%

Imports Total 723 643 543 574 528 554 515 576 0.3%

33 51 35 30 0 14 0 31 33 62 0 0 51 77 58 0 54 64 18 0 83 0 33 91 67 0 102.8% -100.0%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%

145 61 125 60 80 66 31 0 95 0 0 0 128 0 58 0 117 0 18 0 83 0 125 0 67 0 -54.0% -100.0%

517 470 556 560 562 565 534 452 572 523 577 564 588 13.8%

11.3%

0.0%

0.0%

11.3%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

Page 23

E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs) OECD 2012 2013 2014

N. A. 2,390 2,221 2,323

Europe 99 117 122

Non-OECD

Asia-Pac 24 27 26

Total 2,513 2,365 2,472

Asia 217 219 228

OPEC

Non-Asia Total1 368 585 368 586 371 598

World Total1 3,517 3,435 3,573

P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total 254 165 419 288 195 483 318 185 503

2Q 2014 2,141 3Q 2014 2,373 4Q 2014 2,395 1Q 2015 1,755 2Q 2015 1,068 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -50.1%

126 124 124 109 96 -23.6%

27 25 25 21 17 -37.8%

2,294 2,522 2,544 1,886 1,181 -48.5%

221 231 229 214 203 -8.3%

376 374 374 357 326 -13.5%

598 605 603 571 529 -11.5%

327 321 314 322 313 -4.3%

181 188 172 172 155 -14.4%

508 510 486 494 468 -7.9%

3,399 3,636 3,632 2,950 2,177 -36.0%

Jul-14 2,312 Aug-14 2,384 Sep-14 2,423 Oct-14 2,432 Nov-14 2,425 Dec-14 2,329 Jan-15 2,120 Feb-15 1,774 Mar-15 1,372 Apr-15 1,133 May-15 1,029 Jun-15 1,041 Jul-15 1,094 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -52.7%

130 119 122 124 124 123 107 108 112 97 96 95 90 -30.8%

25 26 25 25 26 24 20 22 22 20 15 16 16 -36.0%

2,467 2,529 2,570 2,581 2,575 2,476 2,247 1,904 1,506 1,250 1,140 1,152 1,200 -51.4%

228 229 235 227 229 231 212 218 211 208 202 199 196 -14.0%

378 374 370 365 379 377 361 358 352 337 322 318 320 -15.3%

606 603 605 592 608 608 573 576 563 545 524 517 516 -14.9%

340 318 306 305 316 320 324 323 319 319 308 312 300 -11.8%

195 192 178 179 171 166 165 183 167 154 155 155 149 -23.6%

535 510 484 484 487 486 489 506 486 473 463 467 449 -16.1%

3,608 3,642 3,659 3,657 3,670 3,570 3,309 2,986 2,555 2,268 2,127 2,136 2,165 -40.0%

4.2%

0.7%

55.4%

9.1%

14.8%

23.8%

13.9%

6.9%

20.7%

100.0%

% of Total2

50.5%

Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs) United States 2012 2013 2014

East 113 89 86

Mid-West S-Cent 440 1,144 420 1,049 453 1,114

N-West 168 153 156

West 53 50 53

Canada Total 1,919 1,761 1,861

2

Land 1,871 1,705 1,804

Offshore 47 56 57

Total 364 351 376

North America1 Oil 1,725 1,728 1,905

Gas 558 384 332

Total 2,283 2,112 2,238

2Q 2014 85 445 1,118 148 55 1,852 1,796 56 3Q 2014 84 468 1,138 159 54 1,903 1,842 61 4Q 2014 89 467 1,135 166 53 1,911 1,854 56 1Q 2015 74 358 814 107 27 1,380 1,330 49 2Q 2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0%

202 385 407 309 0 -100.0%

1,736 318 2,054 1,964 324 2,288 1,976 341 2,317 1,400 289 1,688 0 0 0 -100.0% -100.0% -100.0%

Jul-14 83 Aug-14 82 Sep-14 87 Oct-14 90 Nov-14 90 Dec-14 87 Jan-15 80 Feb-15 72 Mar-15 69 Apr-15 72 May-15 68 Jun-15 48 Jul-15 45 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -45.8%

458 470 477 466 469 468 437 348 288 252 226 220 213 -53.5%

1,127 1,140 1,146 1,144 1,145 1,118 992 802 649 557 505 486 501 -55.5%

154 158 165 172 168 159 140 102 78 71 69 67 67 -56.4%

54 53 55 54 54 51 29 26 27 27 23 42 40 -25.6%

1,876 1,904 1,930 1,925 1,925 1,882 1,683 1,348 1,109 976 889 861 866 -53.8%

1,819 1,842 1,866 1,868 1,872 1,824 1,629 1,296 1,066 943 857 833 835 -54.1%

57 62 64 57 53 59 53 52 43 33 32 28 31 -45.0%

350 399 406 424 421 375 368 363 195 90 80 129 183 -47.7%

1,912 1,979 2,000 2,018 1,995 1,915 1,731 1,415 1,054 844 746 766 834 -56.4%

314 324 336 331 351 342 320 296 250 222 223 224 216 -31.2%

2,226 2,303 2,336 2,349 2,346 2,257 2,051 1,711 1,304 1,066 969 989 1,049 -52.9%

% of Total3

20.3%

47.7%

6.4%

3.8%

82.6%

79.6%

3.0%

17.4%

79.4%

20.6%

100.0%

4.3%

Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Page 24 Geographical Specifications 1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republ ic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD Crude Oil Qualities Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and nonProducing API Sulfur OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England Country or Gravity Content BBLs/Metric (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Crude Stream Region (@60° F) (%) Tonne Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910 Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773 -West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640 Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640 Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama, Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640 Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640 (PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640 (PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640 Washington.

Brent Blend Bonny Light Oman Blend Arabian Light Minas Isthmus Michigan Sour WTS Urals Tia Juana Light Dubai Lost Hills Cano Limon Arabian Heavy ANS Oriente Hardisty Heavy Maya Kern River

United kingdom Nigeria Oman Saudi Arabia Indonesia Mexico Michigan Texas Russia Venezuela U.A.E. California Colombia Saudi Arabia Alaska Ecuador Alberta Mexico California

38 37 36 34 34 34 34 33 32 32 31 30 28 27 27 25 25 22 13

0.8 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.6 2.8 1.1 1.4 2.1 3.3 1.0

7.551 7.506 7.462 7.373 7.373 7.373 7.373 7.328 7.284 7.284 7.239 7.194 7.105 7.061 7.061 6.971 6.971 6.838 6.436

3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon). Additional Notes

1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates. Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3. Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5. Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production, net imports/exports, stock changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.

For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected]. Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil