Autumn School Dealing with Uncertainties Utrecht-Bunnik, 8-10 October 2012

13.00-15.00 Case study analysis session

Tiago Capela Lourenco1 and Annemarie Groot2 1SIM/CCIAM

- Faculty of Sciences - University of Lisbon 2Wageningen UR 1

Objectives • to provide participants with a sense of how different approaches that are used to deal with uncertainties can (or not) influence decision-making processes on adaptation • to critically analyse two real-world case-studies where researchers had to deal with and communicate uncertainties • making processes on adaptation

Programme • Brief introduction to the case study (10 min) • Discussion on the real life case (60 minutes) - Reading the case description - Discussing questions (in sub-groups) - The Portuguese reality - Exchange of sub-group results

• Plenary discussion (45 minutes) Brief introduction to the case Major findings Discussion

When did ignorance become a point of view? Framing uncertainties in climate adaptation decision-making

18th Dilbert book by Scott Adams (2001)

4

Introduction

http://siam.fc.ul.pt/adaptaclima-epal/

www.circle-era.eu

5

Case study #2 - EPAL, Lisbon, Portugal How did it start and evolve?  EPAL - Water Supply Utility - Lisbon Metropolitan Area  Abstraction, treatment, transport and water supply  Direct supplier Lisbon (500.000 upstream clients) & indirect supplier 33 Municipalities (clients serving population)

 Total population served ≈ 2,8 million

 How will resource availability change under CC?  What are the Impacts and Vulnerabilities?  How to respond (possible Adaptation measures)? http://siam.fc.ul.pt/adaptaclima-epal/

6

Surface Water - dam reservoir [162,4 hm3 (2010)]

Adapted from: Público 2012

Sub study areas

Surface Water - river abstraction [56,6 hm3 (2010)]

Groundwater [23,4 hm3 (2010)]

7

Adaptation Decisions? (not published - do not cite) Enlarge reservoir to enhance adaptive capacity? Maintain 3 types of sources or abandon least important? Explore new sources? Groundwater? Quality issues?

8

Group discussion • Imagine you are a group of researchers taking up the assignment: how would you deal with the request? • Use your own experience and common sense • Not all information is not provided/available, make assumptions explicit

Guiding questions for debate a) What strategy would you choose to reply to the client’ s request and why (e.g. top down, bottom up..)

b) Which uncertainties do you recognize in your strategy? (level, location, nature) c) Which methods would you use in dealing with these particular types of uncertainties? Why? d) Who are important stakeholders in the case? Which stakeholders would you involve for what purpose and at what stage? e) To what type of uncertainty do you think will the decision be most sensitive to? 10

Portuguese reality

11

Climate & Socio-economic data used •

Precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature downscaled until the end of the century from Global Circulation Model HadCM3 for scenarios A2 and B2, using statistical downscaling techniques.



Data from European Climate Assessment & Dataset with a regular grid of 25 x 25 Km was used to obtain observed data for these three variables for the study area, which consisted of 52 points in the dataset.



For calibration and validation of the model it was used the NCEP reanalysis data. 12

Methodology Global Climate Scenarios (HadCM3, A2/B2)

Global Socioeconomic Scenarios (SRES, IPCC)

Statistical downscaling for study area

Downscaled scenarios for study area (linear)

Impact Assessments: Surface water Groundwater Saltwater intrusion (Tagus R.)

Adaptation 13

Types of uncertainties and the way they are addressed • Source of uncertainties:  Climate and Human Systems (ontic nature), including scenario use, climate data downscalling, impact modelling, vulnerability assessment, and adaptation responses (e.g. lifetime, nature of uncertainty drivers). • Methods to address uncertainty:  Expert elicitation  Scenarios analysis  Sensitivity analysis  Stakeholder involvement  Extended peer review

15

Key messages from the case • Sensitivity analyses and the expert elicitation worked - Involving decision makers and stakeholders in the project is a new task for researchers and a time consuming process but seems to be crucial for the success of the adaptation planning process. • Dealing with the company's high level strategic information (often confidential) is necessary, but sometimes access is difficult and barriers emerge. A high level of trust needs to be created and that is why a continuous engagement is necessary. • Quantifying the cumulative uncertainty trough all working groups (researchers) of the project (uncertainties chain/cascade) is a hard and difficult task, but seems to be feasible if the criteria and the "communication rules" (category definition) is defined and agreed among the partners from the start.

5. References  Walker, W. E., Harremoes, P., Rotmans, J., Sluijs, J. P. v. d., Asselt, M. B. A. v., Janssen, P. and Krayer von Krauss, M. P. (2003) Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support. Integrated Assessment 4 (1), 5-17.  Hallegatte, S. (2009). Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change Global Environmental Change 19 (2), 240-247.  Smith, M. S., Horrocks, L., Harvey, A. and Hamilton, C. (2011) Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369 (1934), 196-216, 10.1098/rsta.2010.0277.  Petersen, A.C. (2012) Simulating Nature: A Philosophical Study of Computer-Simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science and Policy Advice, Second Edition, Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC. [The First Edition, from 2006, is available through open access: http://hdl.handle.net/1871/11385.]  Dessai, S. and van der Sluijs, J. P. (2007) Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation - a Scoping Study. Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht, NL.  Ranger, N., Millner, A., Dietz, S., Fankhauser, S., Lopez, A. and Ruta, G (2010) Adaptation in the UK: a decision-making process. Policy brief - Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London, UK.

 Willows, R. and Connell, R. (Eds.) (2003) Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and DecisionMaking, UKCIP, Oxford, UK 17

Thank you for the attention! [email protected]

18