Capacity Study and Facilities Plan

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Atlanta Public Schools Capacity Study and Facilities Plan SRT 1 and 4 ((Northwest Cluster)) Community Meeting: Tuesday, Novembe...
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C APACITY S TUDY 2011

Atlanta Public Schools Capacity Study and Facilities Plan SRT 1 and 4 ((Northwest Cluster)) Community Meeting: Tuesday, November 29, 2011 Douglass High School

C APACITY S TUDY 2011

T i h’ A d Tonight’s Agenda

Ag genda

• Consultant Presentation – Provide an update on the Study process – Describe the rationale behind the Options presented • Demographic forces impacting enrollment Demographic forces impacting enrollment • Key capacity issues impacting SRT 1 & 4 • How to interpret the maps How to interpret the maps

• Review the detailed maps and provide your input – Ask Ask questions of the consultant team  questions of the consultant team – Provide your written comments on the forms provided • Rank and record your thoughts and observations  related to the Options presented • Suggest refinements or additional considerations

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Study Status Update Study Status Update

C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Phase I: Data Collection/Modeling

Study y Processs

Phase II: Alternatives Analysis

Phase III: Implementation Strategies

Submit Report: to the Superintendent and brief the School Board on findings g

Tonight begins the process of  vetting Options  and developing  “preferred“  implementation implementation  strategies to  present to the  Superintendent  of Schools fS h l

Post Completion: Superintendent considers findings & makes recommendations to the School Board

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P bli I Public Input Process to Date P D Public In nput Pro ocess

• Focus group meetings with SRT representatives Focus group meetings with SRT representatives – Held October 16 to 20 – Representative participation – Discussed strengths, weaknesses, opportunities & threats  impacting local schools – Provided the consultant team with specific information  id d h l ih ifi i f i regarding local school and neighborhood conditions, local  p issues and parental concerns – Discussed  pros/cons of potential concepts to be  evaluated 

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Public Input Process Public Input Process

Public In nput Process

• On‐line demographics survey

– 4,250 4,250 responses received through November 23 responses received through November 23 – Paper version added in October to broaden response rate • 600+ paper survey returns are now being processed – On line survey will remain active for another week – Results will be used to help narrow/refine range of  options and possibly suggest additional concepts to be  i d ibl ddi i l b explored before making study recommendations

• Community meeting input Community meeting input – You will be given an opportunity to respond in writing to  the Options presented tonight – Responses will be tabulated and reported in January with  the study recommendations

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Focus F Gro oup Summ mary

Focus Group Summary Focus Group Summary • Some schools are “centers” of their neighborhoods • Need to address pockets of poverty – there are  larger community issues that impact some schools • Consolidating schools could be acceptable IF – Average class sizes are reduced as a result – More /better educational resources and programming are  allocated to retained schools – The end result is more students attending the best  The end result is more students attending the best facilities and best performing schools

• Test the primary center concept ( K‐2/3‐5) where it  p y p ( / ) makes sense

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F Focus Group Summary G S • Don’t make parental involvement more difficult by  d drawing zones that are too large  i h l • There are redevelopment opportunities in the SRT  th t that could impact enrollment in the future ld i t ll t i th f t • If possible, avoid splitting neighborhoods into  multiple feeder zones multiple feeder zones • Single gender academies and non‐traditional  schools are drawing students out of SRT 1 & 4 – schools are drawing students out of SRT 1 & 4 – don’t make decisions which accelerate that trend Have a plan to re‐use use closed schools as quickly as  closed schools as quickly as • Have a plan to re possible

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Nextt Steps in the Study y Processs

Remaining Study Process Remaining Study Process  • We will combine, analyze & report input from tonight’s  session PLUS the demographic survey & focus groups session, PLUS the demographic survey & focus groups • We will consider that input in narrowing options down  to two recommended implementation strategies to two recommended implementation strategies  – Incorporate/refine the best elements of the 4 Options – Test additional scenarios for localized areas that may emerge  Test additional scenarios for localized areas that may emerge from these meetings 

• Calculate/report the financial implications of the two  recommended strategies • Hold a second round of community meetings in  January before finalizing recommendations and  reporting findings to the Superintendent

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Summary of Key Issues Impacting the Atlanta Public Schools and SRT 1 & 4 NW Cluster

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Enro ollment F Forecast S Summary y

U d t d E ll Updated Enrollment Forecasts tF t • Revised forecasts for each school and grade level have been  updated and extended from the previous 2010 estimates d d d d df h i 2010 i • These updated forecasts:  – Reflect Reflect 2010 Census data 2010 Census data – Incorporate final first quarter FTE student attendance figures for all  APS schools, including charters – Include revised student address data for students attending traditional  Include revised student address data for students attending traditional APS schools, charter schools, private schools and home schooled

• Forecasts are extended to the 2021‐22 school year – Provides 2 additional forecast years

• These revised enrollment forecasts are based on  existing attendance zone boundaries

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Enro ollment F Forecast S Summary y

K Key variables impacting APS enrollment i bl i ti APS ll t • Enrollment bubble started in the past decade will be moving  through the middle & high school grades h h h iddl & hi h h l d • Substantially lower housing starts – greater influence of resale  market turnover and households aging in place market turnover and households aging in place • More renter households delaying home ownership and having  school‐aged children • Less out‐migration of families with school‐aged children to  suburban counties • Higher retention of students progressing through high school  Higher retention of students progressing through high school (dropout/exit rates are declining)   • Access to private school alternatives will be limited by the  economy and a finite supply of available private school seats

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District wide enrollment forecast District‐wide enrollment forecast 35,000

APS Enrollment Trends & Forecasts (Including Charter Schools)

30,000

Total Enrolllment

25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000

Trends

Q1‐2011  A Actual l

Forecast

0 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 Elementary Schools

Forecast Summary Forecast Summary Current SRT Enrollment 2005 ‐ 11 Enrollment Change Forecast Peak Enrollment Forecast Change: 2011 to Peak Year Peak Enrollment Year 2021‐22 Forecast Enrollment Forecast Change: Current to 2021‐22

Middle Schools

Elementary        27,424           3,127 12.9%        29,288         1,864 6.8% 2016‐17        26,765           (659) ‐2.4%

High Schools

Middle High TOTAL        10,610        11,957        49,991              478 4.7%             (810) ‐6.3%           2,795        12,146        14,092        55,526         1,536 14.5%         2,135 17.9%         4,169 2019‐20 2021‐22 2018‐19        11,989        14,092        52,846         1,379 13.0%         2,135 17.9%         2,855

5.9% 8.3%

5.7%

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SRT Elementary School Enrollment Forecasts SRT Elementary School Enrollment Forecasts  (Updated to reflect 2010 Census Results)

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SRT Middle School Enrollment Forecasts SRT Middle School Enrollment Forecasts  (Updated to reflect 2010 Census Results) Middl S h l E ll Middle School Enrollment Trends & Forecasts by SRT (Including Charter Schools) T d &F b SRT (I l di Ch S h l ) 5,000 4,500

Total Enrollment

4,000 3 500 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500

Trends

Q1‐2011  Actual

Forecast

0 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 SRT 1

Forecast Summary Current SRT Enrollment 2005 ‐ 11 Enrollment Change Forecast Peak Enrollment F Forecast Change: 2011 to Peak Year t Ch 2011 t P k Y Peak Enrollment Year 2021‐22 Forecast Enrollment Forecast Change: Current to 2021‐22

SRT 2

SRT 3

SRT 4

SRT 1 SRT 2 SRT 3 SRT 4           3,435           1,737           2,444           2,994             (139) ‐3.9%               (93) ‐5.1%              240 10.9%              470 18.6%           3,638           1,778           3,094           4,023             203 5 9%               41 5.9% 2 4%             650 2.4% 26 6%         1,029 26.6% 1 029 34 4% 34.4% 2013‐14 2012‐13 2021‐22 2020‐21           3,322           1,555           3,094           4,018           (113) ‐3.3%           (182) ‐10.5%             650 26.6%         1,024 34.2%

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SRT High School Enrollment Forecasts SRT High School Enrollment Forecasts  (Updated to reflect 2010 Census Results) 4,500

Hi h S h l E ll High School Enrollment Trends & Forecasts by SRT (Including Charter Schools) T d &F b SRT (I l di Ch S h l )

4,000

Total Enrollment

3,500 3 000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500

Trends

Q1‐2011  Actual

Forecast

0 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 SRT 1

Forecast Summary Current SRT Enrollment 2005 ‐ 11 Enrollment Change Forecast Peak Enrollment F Forecast Change: 2011 to Peak Year t Ch 2011 t P k Y Peak Enrollment Year 2021‐22 Forecast Enrollment Forecast Change: Current to 2021‐22

SRT 2

SRT 3

SRT 4

SRT 1 SRT 2 SRT 3 SRT 4           3,457           2,361           3,110           3,029             (831) ‐19.4%              458 24.1%              204 7.0%             (641) ‐17.5%           3,807           2,493           3,421           4,497             350 10 1%             132 10.1% 5 6%             311 5.6% 10.0% 10 0%         1,468 1 468 48 5% 48.5% 2021‐22 2016‐17 2013‐14 2021‐22           3,748           2,426           3,421           4,497             291 8.4%               65 2.8%             311 10.0%         1,468 48.5%

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SRT 1 Enrollment Forecasts SRT 1 Enrollment Forecasts  (Updated to reflect 2010 Census Results) SRT 1 Enrollment Trends and Forecasts (Including Charter Schools) 9,000 8,000

Total Enrolmen nt

7,000

Q1‐'11  Actual

Trends

6,000

Forecast

5,000 4,000 3,000 2 000 2,000 1,000 0 2005‐06 06‐07

07‐08

08‐09

09‐10

10‐11 2011‐12 12‐13

Elementary Schools Elementary Schools

Elementary  & middle  schools lose  enrollment  after mid‐ decade.

Forecast Summary Current SRT 1 Enrollment 2005 ‐ 11 Enrollment Change Forecast Peak Enrollment Forecast Increase: 2011 to Peak Year Peak Enrollment Year Forecast 2021‐22 Enrollment Forecast Increase: Current to 2021‐22

13‐14

14‐15

Middle Schools Middle Schools

Elementary Schools     8,172         739 9.9%    8,172 ,          ‐ 0.0% 2011‐12     7,251       (921) ‐11.3%

15‐16

16‐17

17‐18

18‐19

19‐20

20‐21

21‐22

High Schools High Schools

Middle Schools         3,435           (139) ‐3.9%        3,638 ,             203 5.9% 2013‐14         3,322           (113) ‐3.3%

High Schools          3,457            (831) ‐19.4%         3,807 ,              350 10.1% 2016‐17          3,748              291 8.4%

HS  enrollment  continues continues  growth  through the  forecast.

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SRT Issues

Key SRT 1/SRT 4 NW Cluster Challenges Key SRT 1/SRT 4 NW Cluster Challenges • The area has substantial existing excess capacity at  the elementary grade levels currently • Elementary enrollment should remain stable to mid‐ decade and then decline through 2021‐22 • Middle and High schools remain relatively stable  throughout the forecast h h h f • Single gender academies are drawing students from  t diti traditional schools  l h l • The locations of several school facilities are out of  balance with the distribution of where students live balance with the distribution of where students live – I‐285 and I‐20 are complicating factors in some areas

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S ifi S h l I Specific School Impacts If no action is taken…. Ten elementary and 3   middle schools are  projected to remain  below 60% utilization  over the  term of the  forecast forecast. Seven schools are  projected to remain projected to remain  below 400 total  enrollment.

Forecast Peak School Crowding Conditions (>95% of Design Capacity) (>95% of Design Capacity) Bunche MS Therrell HS Mays HS Boyd

Current 2011‐12 Enrollment                  821               1,018               1,404                  392

Peak  Forecast Enrollment               884           1,341           1,571               493

Forecasted Severe School Underutilization  (