C APACITY S TUDY 2011
Atlanta Public Schools Capacity Study and Facilities Plan SRT 1 and 4 ((Northwest Cluster)) Community Meeting: Tuesday, November 29, 2011 Douglass High School
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
T i h’ A d Tonight’s Agenda
Ag genda
• Consultant Presentation – Provide an update on the Study process – Describe the rationale behind the Options presented • Demographic forces impacting enrollment Demographic forces impacting enrollment • Key capacity issues impacting SRT 1 & 4 • How to interpret the maps How to interpret the maps
• Review the detailed maps and provide your input – Ask Ask questions of the consultant team questions of the consultant team – Provide your written comments on the forms provided • Rank and record your thoughts and observations related to the Options presented • Suggest refinements or additional considerations
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
Study Status Update Study Status Update
C APACITY S TUDY 2011 Phase I: Data Collection/Modeling
Study y Processs
Phase II: Alternatives Analysis
Phase III: Implementation Strategies
Submit Report: to the Superintendent and brief the School Board on findings g
Tonight begins the process of vetting Options and developing “preferred“ implementation implementation strategies to present to the Superintendent of Schools fS h l
Post Completion: Superintendent considers findings & makes recommendations to the School Board
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
P bli I Public Input Process to Date P D Public In nput Pro ocess
• Focus group meetings with SRT representatives Focus group meetings with SRT representatives – Held October 16 to 20 – Representative participation – Discussed strengths, weaknesses, opportunities & threats impacting local schools – Provided the consultant team with specific information id d h l ih ifi i f i regarding local school and neighborhood conditions, local p issues and parental concerns – Discussed pros/cons of potential concepts to be evaluated
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
Public Input Process Public Input Process
Public In nput Process
• On‐line demographics survey
– 4,250 4,250 responses received through November 23 responses received through November 23 – Paper version added in October to broaden response rate • 600+ paper survey returns are now being processed – On line survey will remain active for another week – Results will be used to help narrow/refine range of options and possibly suggest additional concepts to be i d ibl ddi i l b explored before making study recommendations
• Community meeting input Community meeting input – You will be given an opportunity to respond in writing to the Options presented tonight – Responses will be tabulated and reported in January with the study recommendations
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
Focus F Gro oup Summ mary
Focus Group Summary Focus Group Summary • Some schools are “centers” of their neighborhoods • Need to address pockets of poverty – there are larger community issues that impact some schools • Consolidating schools could be acceptable IF – Average class sizes are reduced as a result – More /better educational resources and programming are allocated to retained schools – The end result is more students attending the best The end result is more students attending the best facilities and best performing schools
• Test the primary center concept ( K‐2/3‐5) where it p y p ( / ) makes sense
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
F Focus Group Summary G S • Don’t make parental involvement more difficult by d drawing zones that are too large i h l • There are redevelopment opportunities in the SRT th t that could impact enrollment in the future ld i t ll t i th f t • If possible, avoid splitting neighborhoods into multiple feeder zones multiple feeder zones • Single gender academies and non‐traditional schools are drawing students out of SRT 1 & 4 – schools are drawing students out of SRT 1 & 4 – don’t make decisions which accelerate that trend Have a plan to re‐use use closed schools as quickly as closed schools as quickly as • Have a plan to re possible
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
Nextt Steps in the Study y Processs
Remaining Study Process Remaining Study Process • We will combine, analyze & report input from tonight’s session PLUS the demographic survey & focus groups session, PLUS the demographic survey & focus groups • We will consider that input in narrowing options down to two recommended implementation strategies to two recommended implementation strategies – Incorporate/refine the best elements of the 4 Options – Test additional scenarios for localized areas that may emerge Test additional scenarios for localized areas that may emerge from these meetings
• Calculate/report the financial implications of the two recommended strategies • Hold a second round of community meetings in January before finalizing recommendations and reporting findings to the Superintendent
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
Summary of Key Issues Impacting the Atlanta Public Schools and SRT 1 & 4 NW Cluster
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
Enro ollment F Forecast S Summary y
U d t d E ll Updated Enrollment Forecasts tF t • Revised forecasts for each school and grade level have been updated and extended from the previous 2010 estimates d d d d df h i 2010 i • These updated forecasts: – Reflect Reflect 2010 Census data 2010 Census data – Incorporate final first quarter FTE student attendance figures for all APS schools, including charters – Include revised student address data for students attending traditional Include revised student address data for students attending traditional APS schools, charter schools, private schools and home schooled
• Forecasts are extended to the 2021‐22 school year – Provides 2 additional forecast years
• These revised enrollment forecasts are based on existing attendance zone boundaries
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
Enro ollment F Forecast S Summary y
K Key variables impacting APS enrollment i bl i ti APS ll t • Enrollment bubble started in the past decade will be moving through the middle & high school grades h h h iddl & hi h h l d • Substantially lower housing starts – greater influence of resale market turnover and households aging in place market turnover and households aging in place • More renter households delaying home ownership and having school‐aged children • Less out‐migration of families with school‐aged children to suburban counties • Higher retention of students progressing through high school Higher retention of students progressing through high school (dropout/exit rates are declining) • Access to private school alternatives will be limited by the economy and a finite supply of available private school seats
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
District wide enrollment forecast District‐wide enrollment forecast 35,000
APS Enrollment Trends & Forecasts (Including Charter Schools)
30,000
Total Enrolllment
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
Trends
Q1‐2011 A Actual l
Forecast
0 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 Elementary Schools
Forecast Summary Forecast Summary Current SRT Enrollment 2005 ‐ 11 Enrollment Change Forecast Peak Enrollment Forecast Change: 2011 to Peak Year Peak Enrollment Year 2021‐22 Forecast Enrollment Forecast Change: Current to 2021‐22
Middle Schools
Elementary 27,424 3,127 12.9% 29,288 1,864 6.8% 2016‐17 26,765 (659) ‐2.4%
High Schools
Middle High TOTAL 10,610 11,957 49,991 478 4.7% (810) ‐6.3% 2,795 12,146 14,092 55,526 1,536 14.5% 2,135 17.9% 4,169 2019‐20 2021‐22 2018‐19 11,989 14,092 52,846 1,379 13.0% 2,135 17.9% 2,855
5.9% 8.3%
5.7%
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
SRT Elementary School Enrollment Forecasts SRT Elementary School Enrollment Forecasts (Updated to reflect 2010 Census Results)
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
SRT Middle School Enrollment Forecasts SRT Middle School Enrollment Forecasts (Updated to reflect 2010 Census Results) Middl S h l E ll Middle School Enrollment Trends & Forecasts by SRT (Including Charter Schools) T d &F b SRT (I l di Ch S h l ) 5,000 4,500
Total Enrollment
4,000 3 500 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500
Trends
Q1‐2011 Actual
Forecast
0 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 SRT 1
Forecast Summary Current SRT Enrollment 2005 ‐ 11 Enrollment Change Forecast Peak Enrollment F Forecast Change: 2011 to Peak Year t Ch 2011 t P k Y Peak Enrollment Year 2021‐22 Forecast Enrollment Forecast Change: Current to 2021‐22
SRT 2
SRT 3
SRT 4
SRT 1 SRT 2 SRT 3 SRT 4 3,435 1,737 2,444 2,994 (139) ‐3.9% (93) ‐5.1% 240 10.9% 470 18.6% 3,638 1,778 3,094 4,023 203 5 9% 41 5.9% 2 4% 650 2.4% 26 6% 1,029 26.6% 1 029 34 4% 34.4% 2013‐14 2012‐13 2021‐22 2020‐21 3,322 1,555 3,094 4,018 (113) ‐3.3% (182) ‐10.5% 650 26.6% 1,024 34.2%
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
SRT High School Enrollment Forecasts SRT High School Enrollment Forecasts (Updated to reflect 2010 Census Results) 4,500
Hi h S h l E ll High School Enrollment Trends & Forecasts by SRT (Including Charter Schools) T d &F b SRT (I l di Ch S h l )
4,000
Total Enrollment
3,500 3 000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500
Trends
Q1‐2011 Actual
Forecast
0 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 SRT 1
Forecast Summary Current SRT Enrollment 2005 ‐ 11 Enrollment Change Forecast Peak Enrollment F Forecast Change: 2011 to Peak Year t Ch 2011 t P k Y Peak Enrollment Year 2021‐22 Forecast Enrollment Forecast Change: Current to 2021‐22
SRT 2
SRT 3
SRT 4
SRT 1 SRT 2 SRT 3 SRT 4 3,457 2,361 3,110 3,029 (831) ‐19.4% 458 24.1% 204 7.0% (641) ‐17.5% 3,807 2,493 3,421 4,497 350 10 1% 132 10.1% 5 6% 311 5.6% 10.0% 10 0% 1,468 1 468 48 5% 48.5% 2021‐22 2016‐17 2013‐14 2021‐22 3,748 2,426 3,421 4,497 291 8.4% 65 2.8% 311 10.0% 1,468 48.5%
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
SRT 1 Enrollment Forecasts SRT 1 Enrollment Forecasts (Updated to reflect 2010 Census Results) SRT 1 Enrollment Trends and Forecasts (Including Charter Schools) 9,000 8,000
Total Enrolmen nt
7,000
Q1‐'11 Actual
Trends
6,000
Forecast
5,000 4,000 3,000 2 000 2,000 1,000 0 2005‐06 06‐07
07‐08
08‐09
09‐10
10‐11 2011‐12 12‐13
Elementary Schools Elementary Schools
Elementary & middle schools lose enrollment after mid‐ decade.
Forecast Summary Current SRT 1 Enrollment 2005 ‐ 11 Enrollment Change Forecast Peak Enrollment Forecast Increase: 2011 to Peak Year Peak Enrollment Year Forecast 2021‐22 Enrollment Forecast Increase: Current to 2021‐22
13‐14
14‐15
Middle Schools Middle Schools
Elementary Schools 8,172 739 9.9% 8,172 , ‐ 0.0% 2011‐12 7,251 (921) ‐11.3%
15‐16
16‐17
17‐18
18‐19
19‐20
20‐21
21‐22
High Schools High Schools
Middle Schools 3,435 (139) ‐3.9% 3,638 , 203 5.9% 2013‐14 3,322 (113) ‐3.3%
High Schools 3,457 (831) ‐19.4% 3,807 , 350 10.1% 2016‐17 3,748 291 8.4%
HS enrollment continues continues growth through the forecast.
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
SRT Issues
Key SRT 1/SRT 4 NW Cluster Challenges Key SRT 1/SRT 4 NW Cluster Challenges • The area has substantial existing excess capacity at the elementary grade levels currently • Elementary enrollment should remain stable to mid‐ decade and then decline through 2021‐22 • Middle and High schools remain relatively stable throughout the forecast h h h f • Single gender academies are drawing students from t diti traditional schools l h l • The locations of several school facilities are out of balance with the distribution of where students live balance with the distribution of where students live – I‐285 and I‐20 are complicating factors in some areas
C APACITY S TUDY 2011
S ifi S h l I Specific School Impacts If no action is taken…. Ten elementary and 3 middle schools are projected to remain below 60% utilization over the term of the forecast forecast. Seven schools are projected to remain projected to remain below 400 total enrollment.
Forecast Peak School Crowding Conditions (>95% of Design Capacity) (>95% of Design Capacity) Bunche MS Therrell HS Mays HS Boyd
Current 2011‐12 Enrollment 821 1,018 1,404 392
Peak Forecast Enrollment 884 1,341 1,571 493
Forecasted Severe School Underutilization (