Can We Teach that Duck to Fly?

Can We Teach that Duck to Fly? Carl Linvill, PhD Principal Renewable Energy Markets Sacramento, CA December 2014 December 3, 2014 The Regulatory Ass...
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Can We Teach that Duck to Fly?

Carl Linvill, PhD Principal Renewable Energy Markets Sacramento, CA December 2014 December 3, 2014

The Regulatory Assistance Project

50 State Street, Suite 3 Montpelier, VT 05602

Phone: 802-223-8199 www.raponline.org

Takeaways • More variable renewables and local resources affect electricity needs • Institutional and behavioral evolution is the key • Reforms: “integration challenge” • Reforms: “duck curve” • Beyond capacity and energy toward valuing capabilities is key 2

The Integration Challenge • More Efficiency, Conservation and DG affects Net Load • More Variable Renewable Energy affects Net Load

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Changes in Consumption & More Nondispatchable Generation affects Net Load

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Meeting Targets at Least Cost (WGA/RAP/NREL – June 2012) • • • • • • • • •

Expand Sub-hourly Scheduling Facilitate Dynamic Transfers Implement EIM Improve Forecasting Leverage Geographic Diversity Improve Reserves Management Retool Demand Response Use Flexibility of Existing Generation Flexibility in New Gas Generation

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The “Duck Curve” Challenge • Local generation on the distribution system combined with large scale PV installations affects net load in a particular way • This has become known as the “duck curve” challenge

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The California ISO “Duck Curve”: Increasing solar means steep afternoon ramping.

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Guess What: Ducks Can Fly A duck in water has very much the shape of the CAISO graphic. The “fat body” floats, and the tall neck breathes.

A duck in flight stretches out its body and straightens its neck in order to reduce wind resistance.

Our job is to straighten this duck out. 8

Ten Strategies To Align Loads to Resources (and Resources to Loads) 1. Targeted energy efficiency 2. Orient solar panels 3. Use solar thermal with storage. 4. Manage electric water heat 5. Require new large air conditioners to include storage

6. Retire older inflexible power plants 7. Concentrate demand charges into “ramping” hours 8. Deploy energy storage in targeted locations 9. Implement aggressive demand response programs 10. Use inter-regional exchanges of power

Not every strategy will be applicable to every utility. 9

Teaching the Duck to Fly

Requesting Permission for Take-Off

How Did We Do? Pre-Strategy, without Solar/Wind: 73% LF Pre-Strategy, with Solar/Wind: 63% LF Post-Strategy, with Solar/Wind: 83% LF Hourly Ramp: 340 MW vs. 400 today, and 550 w/o strategies

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Beyond Capacity and Energy toward Valuing Capabilities • Identify needed capabilities and compensate resources fairly – Make system needs transparent – Qualify all resources (and verify) – Reform markets & procurement

• “What Lies Beyond Capacity Markets,” RAP, 2012

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Takeaways • More variable renewables and local resources affect electricity needs • Institutional and behavioral evolution is the key • Reforms: “integration challenge” • Reforms: “duck curve” • Beyond capacity and energy toward valuing capabilities is key 13

To 33% and Beyond: It’s about individual & institutional evolution This is not about a technology silver bullet … How well do we use today’s info tech? Energy is abundant

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Resource Materials: The Least Cost Integration Challenge: http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/5041 Teaching the Duck to Fly: http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/6977 Clean Keeps the Lights On: http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/7175 Regulatory Consideration Associated with Expanded Adoption of Solar (w/ NREL): http://www.raponline.org/document/download/id/6891 The Regulatory Assistance Project

50 State Street, Suite 3 Montpelier, VT 05602

Phone: 802-223-8199 www.raponline.org

About RAP The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) is a global, non-profit team of experts that focuses on the long-term economic and environmental sustainability of the power and natural gas sectors. RAP has deep expertise in regulatory and market policies that:  Promote economic efficiency  Protect the environment  Ensure system reliability  Allocate system benefits fairly among all consumers Learn more about RAP at www.raponline.org Carl Linvill [email protected] 775-450-0603