in the matter of:
the Resource Management Act 1991
and in the matter of:
an application for resource consent CRC071029 by the South Canterbury Irrigation Trust and Meridian Energy Limited to take and use water from the Waitaki River
Brief of evidence of Charles Nicholas Taylor
Dated: October 2007
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BRIEF OF EVIDENCE OF CHARLES NICHOLAS TAYLOR INTRODUCTION 1
My name is Charles Nicholas Taylor of Rangiora, and I am a principal of Taylor Baines and Associates. I have been a consultant and researcher in the field of applied social research and social assessment for 26 years, working on a wide range of projects for both the public and private sectors. I was a senior research officer at the Centre for Resource Management at Lincoln College before starting my own consulting firm.
2
I have a BA from the University of Otago (1972), an MSc in resource management from University of Canterbury and Lincoln College (1976) and a PhD in sociology from the University of Canterbury (1981).
3
I am a member of the International Association for Impact Assessment and have served on various committees of this organisation, the New Zealand Association for Impact Assessment, the Rural Sociological Society, and the Resource Management Law Association, am a Senior Adjunct, Department of Sociology, University of Canterbury, on the Advisory Board, Social Science Research Centre, University of Canterbury and on the Social Science Committee of the Royal Society of New Zealand.
4
My research and consulting work has involved a wide range of projects including developing concepts and methods in the field of social assessment, publishing the third edition of the text Social Assessment: theory, process and techniques in 2004, and leading social assessment training courses in a number of countries. I have also conducted extensive research in New Zealand on the effects of facilities on their host communities, social aspects of irrigation development, social and economic aspects of tourism development, and the process of resource community formation and change. I have presented evidence at numerous hearings before Local Authorities and the Environment Court regarding applications for resource consents.
5
Founded in 1989 as an independent research provider and consulting firm, Taylor Baines and Associates undertakes social science research and social assessments, and provides consultancy services and training in social assessment methods. The social science focus of our firm has been applied frequently in relation to natural resource management, exploring relationships between
ws110
3
communities and their environment. Our firm has specific experience relating to rural development issues, the planning of large scale projects in New Zealand, and social changes resulting from irrigation, having conducted several studies of the social aspects of irrigation development as outlined in more detail below. 6
In preparing my evidence I have reviewed: 6.1
The Code of Conduct for Expert Witnesses and agree to abide by its terms;
6.2
South Canterbury Irrigation Trust (SCIT) and Meridian’s resource consent application and the Assessment of Environmental Effects for the Hunter Downs Irrigation Scheme (“HDI”);
6.3
Relevant parts of the Waitaki Catchment Water Allocation Regional Plan;
6.4
Other reports or relevant documents including the Scheme Management Plan and the Farm Management Plan for Irrigated Land Use;
6.5
A number of submissions on the application;
6.6
Draft evidence of Mr Ford, Mr Butcher, Mr Greenaway, Ms Mulcock and Ms Mead.
SCOPE OF THE EVIDENCE 7
I was asked by SCIT and Meridian to prepare evidence on the social aspects of land use change associated with the proposed allocation of water to Hunter Downs Irrigation. This evidence supplements the economic evidence presented by Mr Ford, to consider the social effects of allocating water to irrigation.
8
There is a long history of individuals and communities utilising surface and ground water for the irrigation of farming in New Zealand. It is generally accepted that irrigation has the potential to transform both farming systems and the landscape, bringing greater security to farmers and economic, social and environmental benefits that flow throughout the region. Indeed, these are primary reasons for the major investment involved, and also a rationale for the environmental changes expected with a scheme such as HDI.
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9
I have approached my assessment of the social effects of land use change with a view to assisting the commissioners in determining whether or not allocation of water to HDI is consistent with the sustainable management of resources in a way or at a rate that enables people and communities to provide for their social wellbeing (as provided for in section 2 and section 5 of the Resource Management Act, 1991).
10
My evidence therefore provides: 10.1
a short description of previous research on the social impacts of social change resulting from irrigation, with emphasis on research completed under public science research funding, the Ministry of Agriculture and other sources;
10.2
a general model of land/use change and social effects of irrigation based on this previous research;
10.3
a profile of the HDI area, the current demographic characteristics of this area using official statistics, and identifying the social characteristics of current land use;
10.4
a socio-economic description of the Waimate District (and town) with an emphasis on recent trends;
10.5
an analysis of the likely social changes from new land uses with HDI, using the economic modelling of land use change scenarios and likely economic impacts;
10.6
a number of proposals for ensuring social/community change/impacts are managed in a positive way to enhance social and economic wellbeing.
11
The scope of this evidence is only on the social effects of land use change resulting from applying the abstracted water to wide-scale irrigation in the HDI area. It is not a full social impact assessment of the scheme, which would address issues and effects such as headraces and other earth works. Neither does it include analysis of effects for people who recreate in the areas of the lower Waitaki River below the point of abstraction; these effects are covered by Mr Greenaway in his evidence.
12
By way of summary, in my opinion, for the reasons set out below, the HDI is likely to result in considerable economic and social change in the command area, Waimate District and associated
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communities. Broadly, I conclude that this change is consistent with the objective of enhancing social and community well being. PREVIOUS RESEARCH ABOUT LAND USE CHANGE UNDER IRRIGATION 13
The use of comparative cases is an integral part of social impact assessment methodology1. Comparative cases are used as part of a robust analytical process to develop scenarios of change for a similar project in another social context. The development of a scenario of change should treat the new project area as dynamic, and account for changes that would take place anyway without the project in question. So whenever possible, comparative cases should utilise longitudinal analysis of social change in the relevant social contexts examined.
14
There are a number of researched sources of comparative case data for large scale irrigation development in the Canterbury area. These cases range from the Lower Waitaki River in the 1970's to the more recent Opuha Dam in South Canterbury. The social research base includes information from public science funding (Foundation for Research Science and Technology) and research by the Ministry of Agriculture, as well as research commissioned by Central Plains Water. A full list of the research accessed is provided in Appendix 1.
15
A paper by Heather McCrostie Little and myself2 provides an overview of this research and traces the development of community irrigation schemes, including the role of central and local government. The paper examines the attitudes and adaptations of farm families as well as ownership changes. The conclusions show there are community level changes associated with new land uses under irrigation, including changes in demographics, the nature of farm work, and the dynamics of rural communities. We concluded
1
C. Nicholas Taylor, Colin G. Goodrich and C. Hobson Bryan (2004). Social Assessment: Theory, Process and Techniques, Third Edition. Middleton, Wisconsin: Social Ecology Press.
Nick Taylor, Colin Goodrich, Gerard Fitzgerald and Wayne McClintock (2003). Undertaking longitudinal research. Chapter 2 in Henk Becker and Frank Vanclay (Eds), Handbook of Social Impact Assessment, Conceptual and Methodological Advances. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. 2
Heather McCrostie Little and Nick Taylor (2001).
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rural areas need to be active in maximising the social benefits of irrigation. 16
The available research shows that when irrigation water reached pastoral farmers in the 1970s and 1980s, the hey day of major community irrigation schemes in the Lower Waitaki, Amuri and Waipara areas, they had few expectations of radically changing their farming systems. Water was seen primarily as a vital insurance against drought. When irrigation was first proposed for the Amuri, for example, it was not envisaged that there would be land-use change, just more intensive sheep and beef farming systems. The New Zealand Planning Council and Centre for Agricultural Policy Studies, Massey University3 suggested tentatively that irrigation might make dairying more attractive. The report acknowledged that most farmers believed that irrigation would lead to more intensive sheep systems, with some possibility of land sub-divided for horticulture.
17
Our research shows a clear lesson learnt by farmers and rural communities that substantial investment in the use of water resources for irrigation should not be seen simply as an ‘insurance’ against a perverse climate. It was not until sophisticated irrigation technology developed with spray and sprinkler systems that the full potential of water application came to be realised by farmers. The application of water becomes a central new farm function with substantial associated technology, capital investment and changes in patterns of work. Therefore irrigation was often linked to youth and enthusiasm, and in many instances to new farmers, particularly dairy farmers. In terms of life style changes, Blake and Taylor4 found that when considering the move into irrigation “most families did not, in fact, anticipate fully the changes that would eventuate”. In contrast to pastoral farmers, dairy farmers always see irrigation as a basic management tool in their farming system.
18
Development of a scenario of land-use change under irrigation for HDI is further assisted by a recent study5 based primarily on surveys of properties serviced by the Opuha Dam infrastructure, with comparisons to dryland farms in equivalent circumstances. The
3
1982:55
4
Hilary Blake and Nick Taylor, 1984:9.
5
Harris et al., 2006.
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study also involved interviews with other businesses in the area, development of a model of the local economy and assessment of the flow-on effects of irrigation. A DESCRIPTIVE SCENARIO OF SOCIAL CHANGE WITH IRRIGATION 19
Drawing on the research base, my colleagues and I developed a general, descriptive model of land-use change and social change that is associated with irrigation. It should be noted that this model has evolved through a number of research papers and reports (see Appendix 1) as more information has become available, and also to reflect changing attitudes and responses by farmers towards investment in irrigation, irrigation technology and changes in farming systems, particularly conversion to dairying.
20
The available research shows successive ownership and land use changes coming in waves after the introduction of irrigation. On the Waitaki Plains, for instance, many established, dry-land, sheep farming families sold their farms and were replaced by younger families.
These new farmers modified traditional farming systems
with the support of an accessible and regular water supply. They invested heavily in farm improvements, upgrading pasture for cropping and sheep and later for dairying, and building bigger and better homes and farm buildings. The Amuri area latter replicated the Waitaki experience with farms there changing ownership and with a substantial shift to dairying. 21
To summarise the waves of change: 21.1
During the first wave existing pastoral farmers improve their traditional farming base of stock breeding, meat and wool production, and some cropping. They view on-farm irrigation as labour and capital expensive. Older farmers are reluctant to incur additional or new debt and can find the work too physically demanding so they retire in favour of the next generation.
21.2
The second wave of new-generation farmers make major investments in irrigation plant and structures. They increase stock numbers and productivity but generally retain the same production base. These farmers discover that pastoral farming and irrigation are not always compatible, some suffer from the results of over-capitalisation, so they sell their properties to irrigation farmers.
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21.3
Some second-wave farmers do radically change their production base to incorporate more intensive arable farming, dairying or horticulture. They realise that the full potential of land and water lies in new land uses. The shift to dairying may be achieved via interim changes, such as bull beef raising, winter dairy run off and in some cases share milkers. It is likely that these farmers will not make the total change to new forms of farming such as dairying themselves, electing eventually to sell, retire or farm elsewhere.
21.4
By now, widespread changes in land use and farm ownership have taken place. Newcomers have bought into converted farms or directly convert them once they takeover a property. They are usually dairy farmers by choice and experience and frequently arrive in the district from an established dairying area. This third ‘wave’ of irrigation farmers reinforces the ‘new’ dairy economy in the host district.
22
The fundamental dynamic of these waves of irrigation development is the interlinked changes of farm ownership and land use. Ownership changes impact on characteristics of farm families, demographics and the social structure of the host community, its settlements and small service towns.
23
In districts where generational farming is a common practice the process of farm succession provides continuity for farm families and the host community alike. Thus the introduction of irrigation to a district can challenge both traditional farming production systems and community stability as new land uses demand a different set of farming skills and frequently attract farmers with different occupational values and work schedules. On the other hand, newcomers to the community may create additional demand for struggling rural services such as primary schools and medical centres6.
24
Dairy farming families are often in their lower to middle life cycle and sharemilkers frequently have young children. As a consequence, declining school rolls are turned around, especially in the junior classes. An increased school roll can revitalise a community, particularly where the school acts as a focus for the district’s
6
McClintock et al., 2002
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identity. As roll and staff numbers increase the school continues to operate as a centre for educational, recreational and social activities in the community7. 25
Changes in land use can trigger a local perception that the population base of the district has ‘exploded’ through the commercial and employment opportunities offered by irrigation – when in fact the growth of the population has been more modest. For instance, between 1981 and 2001 the population of the Lower Waitaki area in North Otago increased by 15.4 per cent, compared with the overall New Zealand growth rate of 18.9 per cent. The growth in population of irrigated areas does become significant, however, when compared with the decline in population experienced in many non-irrigated districts.
26
Land use change may also impact on the age structure of a district’s population. In the Amuri area of North Canterbury, for example8, there was an overall rise in the number of younger to mid-life males and that conversely in the same district there was a fall in the 60 years cohort.
27
Districts undergoing irrigation development and associated conversion to dairy farming undergo considerable social change as the ‘old’ families move out and are replaced by ‘new’ families. Potential social divisions are created as the first dairy families arrive from outside the district. Dairy farming is often viewed by other farmers as a lower status occupation than traditional sheep and beef farming. It has very different work patterns with a relatively high level of farm workers per farm. The continual migration of dairy farm workers can also create feelings of dislocation among longterm residents of the district.
28
While the average age of the community may become younger, the expectation that youth and enthusiasm will result in a higher rate of participation in community activities may not be fulfilled. The transient nature of sharemilking and dairy farm work may mean that some families take little part in community activities – often a cause of criticism from more established community members.
7
McCrostie Little et al., 1998a
8
Hunt (1998)
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29
Another issue is the capacity of the district to take advantage of flow-on effects from the new land use activity and changes in population. Opportunities will be created for irrigation contractors and supplies, building contractors and supplies, dairy equipment, veterinary services, transport, etc. Some farm workers and local contractors will have to change their skills base to take advantage of these opportunities, or in some cases to survive where demands for previous occupations such as shearing are reduced9. LAND USE CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH HDI
30
Before developing a scenario of social change expected with HDI it is important to consider the sorts of land-use change expected. For this assessment of land-use change I have relied primarily on the analysis of Mr Stuart Ford of the Agribusiness Group.
31
He provided estimates of likely changes in land use as outlined in Table 1. It is evident from these estimates that the main change in land use is expected to be towards dairying, with some increases for beef and dairy support, and also for arable farming. The major associated decrease in land use is for sheep farming.
32
It should be noted that these are changes in land-use proportions. One would expect associated increases in numbers of people employed on all types of farms and in farm income and expenditure. The economic analysis indicates as many as 450 FTE’s of additional on-farm employment, as well as considerable increases in gross farm income and cash farm surpluses.
33
As the social change scenario below uses the Lower Waitaki and Amuri areas as comparison cases, areas where there has been a very large proportional increase in dairying, it is important to consider why the land use change for HDI envisages less than half the total area in dairying.
9
McCrostie Little et al., 1998a, 1998b
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Table 1
Basic scenario of land use change
Land use
Current proportion of area %
Expected proportion of area %
Dairy
6
46
Dairy support
2
7
Arable
14
19
Sheep
58
18
Beef
5
7
Deer
12
4
Other
3
0
Source: The Agribusiness Group and Butcher partners, HDI AEE, Annexure C.
34
There are a number of features of the HDI area to consider here. First, the command area of 40,000 ha incorporates a large amount of downlands compared to river flats or plains. While downland irrigation technology has advanced considerably, not all of the command area topography or soils will be suitable for dairying.
35
Secondly, there is a strong arable farming presence already in the area with crops such as barley, peas and potatoes, and this area is expected to increase along with cropping outputs on existing arable farms as a result of irrigation. The Opuha dam ex post study10 shows that there was a drop in cereal production and small seeds as a proportion of the cropping area but a marked increase in processed vegetables and feed crops grown for sale (likely in support of increased dairying). New crop opportunities are sure to arise as well, such as canola for biodiesel.
10
Harris et al., 2006
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36
In support of the potential change to dairying, there is already a strong presence of irrigated dairy farms outside the HDI area, in addition to the 6% of the command area already in dairying. Conversions to dairy farming are continuing in the command area. Furthermore, conversion to dairying has strong visible support in the new dairy factory at Studholme, and this factory will buy milk from farmers who convert without Fonterra shares.
37
The potential rate of conversion to dairying is another issue. Given that dairying is not a new form of land use in the district, farmers are well familiar with current irrigation technology. Dairy conversions are already taking place in the command area, and with the new dairy factory, the rate of land use change will most likely be much faster than experienced with the comparison case irrigation projects I have discussed. There is also a potential propensity to change amongst sheep farmers who have experienced a long period of difficult economic conditions and are getting older, with few having an option to subdivide into lifestyle bocks. These farms could potentially change their land use and/or ownership relatively quickly. For instance, the Opuha study showed that in just five years there was a change from no dairying in the area to 27% of respondents reporting they were dairy farming. A modest projection of the speed of land use with HDI is for a shift of up to half the command area in dairying within 10 years, along with an increase in arable farming and dairy support, and some additional horticulture in that time period. PARAMETERS OF CHANGE IN THE HDI COMMAND AREA
38
In order to develop a likely scenario of social change resulting from these projected land-use changes in the HDI command area (referred to here as Hunter Downs) I use a number of parameters11 to identify existing social trends and comment on likely changes with irrigation.
39
I emphasise from the outset that the existing social environment is already dynamic and changing.
40
For this analysis statistical maps of the mesh blocks in Waimate and Timaru districts were compared with the command area of the
11
The footnotes are based on the analysis in MAF study
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proposed Hunter Downs irrigation scheme. A cluster of mesh blocks was identified for the proposed scheme12 and census data obtained for the command areas and the country as a whole. The analysis covers five censuses between 1986 and 2006. This longitudinal analysis also raises the issue of comparability of data between censuses that is discussed later with regard to particular parameters. 41
The parameters selected for analysis from these five censuses were as follows: 41.1
usually resident population
41.2
age structure of the usually resident population
41.3
age structure of the farmers and farm workers occupation group
41.4
dairy farmers and dairy workers
41.5
age structure of the dairy farmers and dairy workers occupation group
41.6
highest educational qualifications held by residents
41.7
employment by industry
41.8
occupational status of residents
41.9
employment status of residents
41.10 labour force status of residents 41.11 median of household incomes 41.12 distribution of household incomes.
12
Mesh block numbers 2776702, 2776800, 2777400, 2777500, 2814600, 2814700, 2814800, 2815000, 2815100, 2815600, 2815700, 2815800, 2815900, 2816000, 2816100, 2816200, 2816300, 2816400, 2816700, 2816800, 2817200, 2817300, 2817902, 2818000, 2818300, 2818400, 2822702, 2824300, 2824400, 2825400, 2825100, 2825200, 2825300. The mesh block boundaries did not always coincide with the geographical boundary of the proposed irrigation scheme; where the mesh block extended over the boundary but had a major proportion in the area it was included.
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42
Tables describing these parameters are provided in Appendix B and a parallel set of tables for the comparative cases of the Lower Waitaki and the Amuri are provided in Appendix C. It should be noted that these comparative cases only provide a guide to the HDI scenario of change, which has to be interpreted in light of the baseline conditions and trends as well as the projected land use changes. Usually resident population
43
Changes in the usually resident population of an area indicate whether there has been an inflow or exodus of people which in certain circumstances are associated with changes in the district’s economy. These types of population movements are characteristic of rural districts with natural resource based industries that are subject to commodity price cycles. In areas such as the Lower Waitaki and Amuri where community irrigation schemes have been introduced (Appendix 3, Table 1), intensified use of the land arrested population decline and resulted in a moderate rate of population growth over at least three census (10-15 years).
44
Usually resident populations13 of Hunter Downs and New Zealand were compiled for the 1986 to 2006 censuses, and the increases or decreases in population between the censuses were calculated as percentages. The results of this analysis are presented in Appendix B, Table 1 and show the Hunter Downs area lost around 200 people over a 20 year period (9% of the 1986 population). The population decline has levelled off since 2001, probably partly as a result of dairy conversions that have already occurred in the area.
45
Given the projected increase in on-farm labour the HDI is likely to generate a marked period of population growth in the command area from the time it is commissioned, in the order of at least 5% per quintile over 10 years then levelling off again. This population increase will have implications for the vitality of small rural communities and social services as discussed below. Age structure of the usually resident population
46
The age structure of the usually resident population provides information about the proportions of children and elderly people
13 The usually resident population figure provides a better indicator of population growth than the total population figure, which is also recorded by the census, because it excludes people who are temporarily visiting the area, and includes residents of the area who are elsewhere in New Zealand on the night of the census.
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living in an area, and the proportion of people of working age (1564 years) who may be available for employment in the local economy. As the age structure of an area’s population changes over time the pattern of demand for particular educational, health, and social services will increase or decrease. Thus the arrival of young families in a district to work on dairy farms, for instance, may subsequently boost school rolls. Moreover, any decline in the proportion of people of working age may indicate that many people in this age group have left the area to find jobs. 47
Age structures of the Hunter Downs and New Zealand populations from the 1986 to 2006 censuses were summarised in several age categories and the categories 0-14 years and 15-64 years are presented in Appendix B, Table 2. The data show that there has been an increase in the proportion of working age people (15-64) over this time but the number peaked in 1996 and has fallen a little since then. It should be noted that the size of the rural workforce typically drives the level of population - in other words if there are insufficient jobs then people tend to move away and vice versa.
48
Evidence from the Lower Waitaki and Amuri (Appendix C, Tables 2a and 2b) suggests a period of demographic change with an increase in the proportion of the population aged 14 years and under and an increase in the working age group (15-64 years).
While the cohort
of additional young people will move through as new families are attracted to the area, despite the churning effect with some farm worker families, the proportion of working aged people should remain relatively stable for at least 20 years or more. Numbers and age structure of the farmers and farm workers occupational group 49
An examination of the ages of farmers and farm workers indicates whether there have been any changes in the age structure of residents directly involved in agricultural production. Rapid changes in the age composition of farmers and farm workers indicate that there has been a major shift in land use in a particular area as shown in the Lower Waitaki and Amuri areas (Appendix C, Table C3), where the number of farmers and farm workers under 30 years of age increased markedly with the shift to dairying, and, while it then falls over time, remains well above the national average.
50
The numbers and age structure of farmers and farm workers of the Hunter Downs and New Zealand populations were collected from the 1996 to 2006 censuses. Statistics New Zealand assembled this data by using occupational codes for each census to separate the farmers
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and farm workers from the rest of the population (Appendix B, Table B3). A key trend is that the total number of farmers and farm workers in the Hunter Downs area declined from 612 to 489 between 1996 and 2006, while the proportion of them under 30 years fell from 19 to 14 per cent. There were relatively fewer farmers and farm workers among this younger age group than was the national pattern over this time period. 51
We therefore predict a substantial increase in both the number of farmers and farm workers and the proportion of them aged under 30 with the shift towards up to 50% of the HDI area in dairying. Dairy farmers and dairy farm workers
52
Changes in the proportion of dairy farmers and dairy farm workers among the broader occupational group of farmers and farm workers indicates the extent to which particular areas have either taken up or opted out of this type of agricultural production. By examining census data about particular farming occupations over a period of twenty years the magnitude of that shift in land use can be quantified as shown by the Lower Waitaki and Amuri areas (Appendix C, Table C4).
53
Data about the number of dairy farmers and dairy farm workers in Hunter Downs and New Zealand populations were compiled from the 1996 to 2006 censuses as described above. The proportion of dairy farmers and dairy farm workers to the total number of the farmers and farm workers occupation group in each area were calculated as percentages as presented in Appendix B, Table B4.
54
The number of dairy farmers and dairy farm workers increased from 6 to 45 between 1996 and 2006 indicating that there has been a slow rate of conversion to this type of production in the Hunter Downs area as I have already noted. The proportionate number of dairy farmers and dairy farm workers will increase noticeably in Hunter Downs with the scheme, probably to over a third of the overall farmers and farm worker group. Age structure of the dairy farmers and dairy farm workers occupation group
55
The conversion of farm units to dairy production was investigated further by examining census data about the age structure of dairy farmers and dairy farm workers. As dairy farmers and dairy farm workers become a growing proportion of the farmers and farm workers occupational group they alter the demographic characteristics of farmers and farm workers in general, and also
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influence the cultural values and practices of farming itself. Thus an examination of the age structure of dairy farmers and dairy workers provides an indicator of the cultural gap between dairying and other forms of agricultural production. 56
The previous section described how the data about dairy farmers and dairy farm workers were collected. Like the farmers and farm workers occupational group they were summarised in several age categories and the percentages of these categories were consolidated to show the proportion of dairy farmers and dairy farm workers under 30 years of age. The results of this analysis are documented in Appendix B, Table B5, where it can be seen that the small number of new dairy farmers and dairy farm workers are relatively young compared to the national figure. The comparative analysis for the Lower Waitaki and Amuri areas (Appendix C, Table C5) reinforces the likelihood that the average age of farmers will fall considerably as a result of irrigation and the movement of younger farmers into the area. Educational qualifications of the usually resident population
57
The educational qualifications held by residents provide information about the quality of human resources available to employers in a particular area. Jobs earning high incomes demand skills that generally require higher educational qualifications than jobs which provide moderate or low incomes. Analysis of the proportion of residents with no educational qualifications indicates whether a better educated workforce is likely for the Hunter Downs area.
58
Data about educational qualifications for Hunter Downs were compiled from the 1986 to 2006 censuses and focussed on the category of those with no qualifications (Appendix B, Table B6). The area shows a strong trend towards more farm families and workers with some form of formal qualification. Data from the Lower Waitaki and Amuri (Appendix C, Table C6) suggest this trend will be strengthened as new farmers and farm mangers come into the area. However, while dairying requires highly qualified operators and managers, it also needs a pool of young people to provide relatively unskilled labour for milking and other farm tasks, which is likely to keep Hunter Downs above the national average for unskilled residents. Overall the advent of dairying and a more skilled workforce in the area will most likely narrow the education “gap” in relation to national levels.
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Employment by industry 59
Employment by industry records the numbers of residents of a particular area employed by major industrial sectors. This information reveals the range of industries in which residents are employed. It also provides a profile of the local economy, although that profile may not entirely be accurate as some people work outside their area of residence and other workers employed in local industries reside outside the area. Over the long term (i.e. 15 to 20 years) changes in employment by industry may indicate how residents of an area have become more or less dependent on specific industries for their employment.
60
Data about employment by industry indicate the standard industrial categories were basically the same for 1986 and 1991 censuses14, but reclassification by Statistics New Zealand for the 1996 census expanded the number of industrial categories from nine to seventeen. Percentages of the number of residents employed in each of the industries were calculated for all five censuses even though there were a higher number of industrial categories for the last three censuses. It was possible to compare changes over this 20 year period by deducting the percentages of residents employed in the primary sector15 and those whose source of employment was “not specified” from 100 per cent to determine the percentage of residents employed outside the primary sector. The results of this analysis are presented in Appendix B, Table B7.
61
The Hunter Downs shows a strong trend towards fewer residents employed in the primary sector. At first glance this may appear incongruous for an area largely involved in farming. However, it should be recognised that the census only records industry and occupation for the first job of residents. National research on multiple job holding shows a strong trend towards greater multiple job holding by rural residents and those in farming occupations in the period 1981-2001, as farming became less labour intensive, and a large proportion of rural workers do not record farming as their
14 Finance, insurance, real estate and business services category (1986) was changed to business and finance services in 1991. 15 The agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing category for 1986 and 1991, which subsequently became the agriculture, forestry and fishing category for 1996, 2001 and 2006.
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primary occupation16. However, dairying is the farming occupation with the lowest level of multiple job holding, therefore the census statistics are likely to show a trend of less change away from the primary sector in future years, as demonstrated by the Lower Waitaki and Amuri areas (Appendix C, Table C7). Occupational status of residents 62
The type of occupations held by residents of a particular area reveals the diversity of jobs that are available to them and provides information about the access they have to quality jobs with high status and better than average incomes. Longitudinal data about occupations can indicate whether residents of an area have improved their economic welfare through holding higher status occupations.
63
Occupational data17 show percentages of the number of residents employed in each of the occupational categories and changes over the 20 year period were made by consolidating most of the occupational categories into two broad occupational groups - higher status occupations and blue collar occupations18. The results of this analysis are presented in Appendix B, Table B8. It is evident that while the occupational status of Hunter Downs has improved over time it remains well below national figures. The trend is similar to the Lower Waitaki and Amuri (appendix C, Table C8) so irrigation is unlikely to advance the status of the HDI area’s occupations beyond the existing trend.
16 Taylor, Nick, Baines, James and James Newell (2006). The potential influence of multiple job holding on official statistics describing the rural workforce: issues for data series and workforce policy. Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Nelson, 24-25 August. 17 There were seven major occupational categories in 1986. In 1991 the number of occupational categories was increased to ten and several were reclassified. Then in the 1996 census the armed forces category was removed. There were nine occupational categories for 1996, 2001 and 2006, and their classifications remained the same as in 1991. The minor exception was elementary occupations which had “(incl. residuals)” added at the 2001 census. 18 Higher status occupations comprise the professional, technical and related workers; and administrative workers in 1986, and legislators, administrators and managers; professionals; and technicians and associate professionals in 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006. Blue collar occupations comprise agriculture, animal husbandry and forest workers, fishermen and hunters; and production and related workers, transport equipment operators and labourers in 1986, and agriculture & fishery workers; trade workers; plant and machine operators and assemblers; and elementary occupations in 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006. Clerical workers, sales and service workers; and armed forces (1991) were the occupational categories that were excluded for the purposes of this analysis.
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Employment status of residents 64
The employment status of residents provides information about the numbers of residents of a particular area who are wage and salary earners, employers, self-employed, and unpaid family workers. This information can be used to assess changes in the scale of local enterprises, and to ascertain the nature of jobs generated in the area whether they be on farm or in agricultural support industries.
65
Employment status is in five categories from 1986 onwards and the classification system is relatively consistent over all five censuses. Three of these categories of employment - wage and salary earners/ paid employees, employers, and self-employed - were selected, and percentages of the number of residents employed in each category were calculated for the censuses. The results for Hunter Downs shows the proportions of employers and wage and salary earners changed only a little in the 20-year period (Appendix B, Tables B9a, B9b and B9c). A shift to dairy farming could mean an increase in the proportions of employers and wage and salary earners in the area with more labour intensive dairy farming and larger farm units. Labour force status
66
The labour force status of residents of a particular area allows the quality of jobs to be appraised. The classification of jobs into fulltime and part-time provides a relatively unsophisticated measure of the quality of employment. A shift into part-time employment by residents with a concurrent loss of full-time jobs would indicate a decline in job quality; particularly in the current climate where parttime employment has become associated with unskilled and low paid work.
67
Data about the labour force status of Hunter Downs residents over the five censuses19 is represented for the percentages of residents employed full-time in Appendix B, Table B9. The proportion employed full time changed little in this period and less so than for the New Zealand workforce as a whole. Full-time employment should remain relatively strong with irrigation and larger, more labour intensive farm units.
19 The number of labour force status categories at each census varied between three and five. The five categories, although varying in their names, were full-time, part-time, unemployed not in labour force, and work and labour force unidentifiable. The unemployed and work and labour force unidentifiable categories only appeared in the 2001 and 2006 census data.
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Median of household incomes 68
The median of household incomes provides a benchmark to compare levels of economic welfare between different areas at a particular time. Unless it is adjusted for inflation, however, it is a less reliable indicator of changes in economic welfare within a particular area over the long term. Comparative experience in the Lower Waitaki and Amuri (Appendix C, Table C9) does suggest that with irrigation median household incomes in the HDI area will rise strongly and above the national trend. CHANGE IN THE WIDER WAIMATE DISTRICT
69
I now turn to consider implications of HDI for the wider Waimate District. The HDI command area incorporates a significant proportion of the rural population of the district between the coast and the Hunter Hills in the west, with a number of smaller settlements including St Andrews, Makikihi, Studholme, Morven, Glenavy, Otaio and Willowbridge. Overall, the population of the district fell 8.3% from 7,743 in 1991 to 7,101 in 2001 but then grew a little to 7,206 in 2006. The proposed HDI scheme is likely to add to population growth in the district as a whole as well as for the command area.
70
The main town of Waimate itself is located on the coastal strip near the Hunter Hills and had a usually resident population of 2,835 in 2006, up a few from 2,757 in 2001. Previously the number of residents declined by 8 per cent between 1991 and 2001. In 2001 29.8 per cent of the town’s population were aged 65 years and over and this proportion increased further to 31.8 per cent in 2006. The district had 19.2 per cent aged 65 years and over in 2006, well over the national figure of 12.3 per cent. The town provides services for the surrounding farming communities and is the seat of the District Council. Growth in the population of the town is also likely with the HDI project both in the construction stage and then with changes in land uses and associated services, including processing workers at new milk factory nearby at Studholme.
71
Significant facilities in the town include a high school, three primary schools, a residential home for aged people, two medical centres, a library, and swimming pool20. Retirees from major urban centres
20
Waimate District Council, 2006: 1-1, 2-23-26.
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have moved to the town for the affordable housing. Other new arrivals are attracted by the lifestyle of the district, with a number of them leasing their farms while being employed in occupations outside the agricultural sector. Moreover, some workers from the town commute daily to Timaru and Oamaru. The HDI will bolster the regional labour market as discussed by Mr Ford, providing a range of new work in addition to the jobs on farm. The long-term effect will be to support the viability of the services available in Waimate. 72
By national standards District incomes were relatively low in 2001 as 28 per cent of the district households reported earnings of $20,000 or less (cf. 20 per cent for NZ). The likely effect of HDI is to increase District incomes in addition to incomes in the command area as I have discussed. This view is supported by the findings of the Opuha report and the evidence of Mr Ford and Mr Butcher.
73
The rolls of schools, and qualitative data about schools, are important indicators of social change in rural communities. Rural schools provide an important focus for community activities, both directly associated with the school or using the school’s facilities. These activities create and maintain social networks necessary for social capital and sustain community vitality. Data about the rolls of schools were obtained from the Ministry of Education (Appendix D). It can be seen that the total roll has fallen substantially over recent years (-21.8% from 1996-2005) and a number of small schools have closed. Even the amalgamated schools are struggling to maintain their rolls. While the HDI will bolster school rolls further amalgamations of rural schools are possible and will depend on Ministry of Education policy.
74
The District has 16 rural halls, two community libraries and seven camping grounds which provide recreational opportunities for residents and visitors. A directory of clubs and organisations lists over 150 organisations and clubs and 10 churches in the district. The organisations and clubs include 45 sports clubs, 37 community groups, 24 hobby clubs, and 17 health and welfare organisations21.
75
However, like many rural districts Waimate struggles to maintain the high levels of voluntary input required to maintain social capital.
21
Waimate District Council, 2006: 2-23-26, 3-34, Waimate Resource Centre, 2005
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In this regard the comparative research22 shows that the ethos and work practices of dairying, particularly with the mobility of sharemilking contracts and additional workers and families, does not necessarily lead to the same time commitment to community leadership and voluntary work as provided by the retiring farmers. Value conflicts can arise between the different occupational cultures of dairy farmers versus dry-land-farmers. Increasing ethnic diversity of the dairy farm workforce with immigrant workers may also be an issue as employers look further a field for workers in a tight labour market23. In these regards the process of social change needs to be carefully managed, as discussed below. MANAGEMENT OF SOCIAL EFFECTS 76
The research on social change with irrigation and new forms of land use shows the importance of an approach that manages social and community change in a positive way to enhance scheme social benefits and mitigate any identified problems or issues. In this respect the principles of adaptive management applied to other forms of ecosystem change can also be applied to social issues. Furthermore, with the two-phased resource consent approach adopted by SCIT and Meridian for HDI there is plenty of opportunity to plan for and proactively manage social change.
77
I understand that HDI is committed to an environmental management system (EMS), incorporating policies and performance standards, compliance and capacity building that will tie sustainable farming practices to the access to water. In addition to the Scheme Management Plan, the approach emphasises taking advantage of opportunities for technology transfer through individual compulsory farm management plans for water and nutrient budgets, riparian protection etc, as well as opportunities to identify local solutions to local problems, as described by Ms Mulcock. In a submission (351) Fonterra, who are likely to have a number of milk producers as their suppliers, indicate that they are taking an industry-wide lead on environmentally sustainable farming practices.
22
McClintock et al., 2002.
23
Nona Verwoerd, Lincoln University, identifies three main groups of foreign workers on dairy farms: young people on short-term permits, immigrants looking for a long-term new home and refugees, noting each group brings potential benefits as workers but also needs careful personnel management..
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78
In addition to the EMS, is the management of social and economic change from irrigation to promote economic diversification and employment opportunities in the District. This will require HDI to liaise regularly with government agencies such as the Department of Labour, WINZ, Ministry of Education and Ministry of Social Development. It is also necessary to liaise closely with economic development agencies in Waimate including the Waimate District Council and Waimate Resource Centre, and with the regional agencies: the Aoraki Development Trust (see submission 1) and the Waitaki Development Board (see submission 218). This ongoing liaison can build on the relationships established through consultation undertaken during project planning described by Ms Mead.
79
Opportunities that could be developed in relation to likely social change include mechanisms to assist newcomers into the district and participate in community life such as information packages; development of a range of employment opportunities for farm families and workers outside farming; a strategy to assist local contractors to take advantage of scheme construction and later the construction of dairy sheds and new houses; strategies for development and niche marketing of arable crops and horticulture; development of recreation activities on major feeder canals and any reservoirs constructed; Waimate District Long Term Council Community Planning and land use planning, to enable suitable residential development in Waimate and to provide appropriate levels of infrastructure for the town.
80
As in any programme of adaptive management, ongoing monitoring of social and economic conditions will assist communities to take full advantage of the irrigation water. This monitoring will require collaboration between the above agencies, and HDI could consider using the proposed liaison mechanisms for this purpose. With active participation of interested and affected parties, and management of change from a community perspective, the benefits of using this water for agriculture will be enhanced from a social perspective. Ms Mead has covered the question of community liaison and Ngai Tahu liaison in her evidence. CONCLUSION
81
Experience shows social impacts will vary over the life cycle of an irrigation project, from planning and design, through construction and then phases of operation as land–use changes take place. There is a robust empirical basis to argue irrigation projects will
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bring economic benefits to a district. However, the social-impact framework utilises a broader analysis of social benefits and costs. 82
In the case of the HDI, benefits will include additional employment both on farm and off farm, strengthening the population base of the Waimate district and providing the population basis, including a more youthful population, for better funding and facilities for education, health and social services. Increased business and turnover for existing businesses, and opportunities for economic diversification, will flow through into the workforce and the vitality of Waimate town in particular.
83
These benefits could be offset by some initial social division or dislocation between newcomers and long-term residents as farms change hands and farming systems adapt. Some social services may be stretched initially beyond their capacity and have to adjust to new lifestyles such as more mobile farm workers and families.
84
There is therefore a need for ongoing strategies to monitor and manage social change and support the development of social capital and community capacity to take full advantage of the scheme.
85
However, in balance, considering the likely population growth in areas that are otherwise declining, potential economic diversification and greater employment opportunities, especially for younger people and families, I have concluded that within the scope of this evidence on the proposed use of lower Waitaki River water for irrigation and associated land use change, the HDI will bring net social benefits.
Dated:
October 2007
Charles Nicholas Taylor
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APPENDIX A - LIST OF REFERENCES RELATING TO IRRIGATION AND SOCIAL CHANGE Blake, Hillary and Taylor, Nick(1986). Social impacts of irrigation: diversification into horticulture. New Zealand Agriculture Science, 20, 1. Butcher Partners Ltd (2000). Central Plains Water Enhancement: Economic and Social Impact of Proposed Irrigation Schemes. Central Plains Water Enhancement Committee, Selwyn District Council and Christchurch City Council, Leeston. Evans, Mary, and Cant, Garth (1976). The Effect of Irrigation on Farm Production and Rural Settlement in Mid-Canterbury: A Comparison of the Irrigated and Dryland Farming Zones in the Lyndhurst-Pendarves Area, 1945-1976. New Zealand Geographer, 37, 2:58-66. Ford, S. (2002). Economic and Social Assessment of Community Irrigation Projects. MAF Technical Paper No. 2002/13. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Wellington (with contributions by G. Butcher and Taylor Baines & Associates). Hamilton, D. J. and Elliot, G. L. (1994). Lower Waitaki Irrigation Scheme: 25 Years On. Paper No. SEAg 94/025, Conference on Engineering in Agriculture, Lincoln University, Christchurch, 21-24 August 1994. Houghton, Ruth M.(1980). Lower Waitaki Communities study. Town and Country Planning Division, Ministry of Works and Development, Dunedin. Hunt, Lesley, (1978). Changing to Cows : the impact of land-use change in the Amuri. NSOF Dairy Programme 1997-98. Internal report 2.2, AgResearch, Lincoln. McClintock, W., Taylor, N. and McCrostie Little, H. (2002). Social assessment of land use change under irrigation. Working Paper 33, prepared for the Foundation for Research Science and Technology Project Resource Community Formation & Change (TBA 801). Taylor Baines & Associates, Christchurch. McCrostie Little, Heather and Taylor, Nick (2001). Social and economic impacts associated with irrigated land use change. Proceedings of Seventh Annual Conference of the New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (Inc.), Blenheim, July, AERU Discussion paper No. 148, Lincoln University, Canterbury.
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Taylor, Nick; Gerard Fitzgerald and Wayne McClintock (2001). Resource communities in New Zealand: perspectives on community formation and change. In Geoffrey Lawrence, Vaughan Higgins and Stewart Lockie (eds), Environment, Society and Natural Resource Management, Theoretical Perspectives from Australasia and the Americas, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK. Taylor, Nick, Colin Goodrich, Gerard Fitzgerald and Wayne McClintock (2002). Undertaking longitudinal research. In Henk Becker and Frank Vanclay (Eds), Handbook of Social Impact Assessment, Conceptual and Methodological Advances, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK. Nick Taylor, Wayne McClintock and Heather McCrostie Little (2003). Assessing the social impacts of irrigation - a framework based on New Zealand cases. Paper presented to the International Association for Impact Assessment Annual Meeting, Marrakech, Morocco, 17-20 June. Taylor, Nick, Baines, James and James Newell (2006). The potential influence of multiple job holding on official statistics describing the rural workforce: issues for data series and workforce policy. Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, Nelson, 24-25 August.
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APPENDIX B - DEMOGRAPHIC DATA FOR HUNTER DOWNS AND NEW ZEALAND Table B1:
Changes in Usually Resident Population 1986-2006
Census Year
Hunter Downs
New Zealand
Number
% change over five years
Number
% change over five years
1986
2148
n/a
3263280
n/a
1991
2106
-2
3373932
3.4
1996
2091
-0.7
3618297
7.2
2001
1947
-6.9
3737277
3.3
2006
1950
0.2
4027947
7.8
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Table B2a:
Percentage of Usually Resident Population 14 years & under
1986-2006 1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Hunter Downs
28.524
27.7
24.5
24.2
24.3
New Zealand
24.4
23.2
23
22.7
21.5
Source: Statistics New Zealand Note: 2006 census data for Hunter Downs is based on only 27 mesh blocks of the command area as access to data for the other six (with URP of 126) is restricted by Statistic NZ’s confidentiality procedures.
24 There were difficulties reconciling the total UR population of Hunter Downs from Supermap - 1981 and 1991 - with the total UR populations of Hunter Downs after adding up the age groups. The proportions for these three census years were therefore calculated using the totals from the age groups, and are included in Tables B2a and B2b in italics.
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Table B2b:
Percentage of Usually Resident Population 15-64 years 1986-
2006 1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Hunter Downs
65.9
66.3
69.6
68.3
68.3
New Zealand
65.2
65.5
65.3
65.3
66.2
Source: Statistics New Zealand Note: 2006 census data for Hunter Downs is based on only 27 mesh blocks of the command area as access to data for the other six (with URP of 126) is restricted by Statistic NZ’s confidentiality procedures.
Table B3:
Percentage of Farmers and Farm Workers Occupation Group
under 30 years of age 1996-2006 1996
2001
2006
Hunter Downs
19.1
14.0
14.1
New Zealand
24.7
22.2
21.2
Source: Statistics New Zealand data compiled for the full command area
Table B4:
Percentage of Dairy Farmers & Dairy Workers in the Farmers
and Farm Workers Occupation Group 1996-2006 1996
2001
2006
Hunter Downs
1.0
5.5
9.2
New Zealand
23.5
23.8
24.0
Source: Statistics New Zealand data compiled for the full command area
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Table B5:
Percentage of Dairy Farmers & Dairy Workers under 30 years
of age 1996-2006 1996
2001
2006
Hunter Downs
-
-
46.7
New Zealand
25.1
21.5
25.1
Source: Statistics New Zealand data compiled for the full command area
Table B6:
Percentage of Usually Resident Population aged 15 years &
over with no educational qualifications 1986-2006 1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Hunter Downs
40.1
35.8
36.4
27.8
28.3
New Zealand
37.1
31.1
32.2
23.7
22.4
Source: Statistics New Zealand Note: 2006 census data for Hunter Downs is based on only 24 mesh blocks of the command area as access to data for the other nine (with URP of 222) is restricted by Statistic NZ’s confidentiality procedures.
Table B7:
Percentage of residents employed outside the primary sector
1986-2006 1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Hunter Downs
35.5
38.4
41.6
42.9
48
New Zealand
88.3
87.9
84.6
86.4
87.5
Source: Statistics New Zealand Note: 2006 census data for Hunter Downs is based on only 15 mesh blocks of the command area as access to data for the other 18 (with URP of 678) is restricted by Statistic NZ’s confidentiality procedures.
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Table B8:
Percentage of residents with high and low status occupations
High status
Low status
High status
Low status
High status
Low status
2006
Low status
2001
High status
1996
Low status
1991
High status
1986
Hunter Downs
8.1
78.4
12.3
74.3
15.1
70.8
18.4
69.8
21.4
64
New Zealand
19.9
41.5
34.4
37
34.2
33.6
37.4
36
41.1
34.4
Source: Statistics New Zealand Note: 2006 census data for Hunter Downs is based on only 27 mesh blocks of the command area as access to data for the other six (with URP of 132) is restricted by Statistic NZ’s confidentiality procedures.
Table B9a:
Wage & Salary Earners/Paid Employees as Percentage of
Residents 1986-2006 1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Hunter Downs
47.5
47.3
46.1
46.6
50.7
New Zealand
75.7
70.1
68.6
69.7
76.1
Source: Statistics New Zealand Note: 2006 census data for Hunter Downs is based on only 30 mesh blocks of the command area as access to data for the other three (with URP of 45) is restricted by Statistic NZ’s confidentiality procedures.
Table B9b:
Employers as Percentage of Residents 1986-2006 1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Hunter Downs
11.5
11.5
10.3
12.2
13.9
New Zealand
6.8
6.9
6.9
6.9
7.2
Source: Statistics New Zealand Note: 2006 census data for Hunter Downs is based on only 30 mesh blocks of the command area as access to data for the other three (with URP of 45) is restricted by Statistic NZ’s confidentiality procedures.
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Table B9c:
Self Employed as Percentage of Residents 1986-2006 1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Hunter Downs
28
28.1
23.9
26.2
25.6
New Zealand
8.2
10.2
10.5
11.5
11.8
Source: Statistics New Zealand Note: 2006 census data for Hunter Downs is based on only 30 mesh blocks of the command area as access to data for the other three (with URP of 45) is restricted by Statistic NZ’s confidentiality procedures.
Table B10:
Employed Full-Time as Percentage of Residents 1986-2006 1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Hunter Downs
61.1
58
59.4
61.8
59.9
New Zealand
54.3
49.3
45
46
48.4
Source: Statistics New Zealand Note: 2006 census data for Hunter Downs is based on only 32 mesh blocks of the command area as access to data for the remaining mesh block (with URP of 9) is restricted by Statistic NZ’s confidentiality procedures.
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APPENDIX C - DEMOGRAPHIC DATA FOR THE LOWER WAITAKI AND AMURI Table C1:
Changes in Usually Resident Population of Lower Waitaki and
Amuri 1981-2001 Census Year
Lower Waitaki
Amuri
New Zealand
Number
% change over five years
Number
% change over five years
Number
% change over five years
1981
681
n/a
1071
n/a
3143310
n/a
1986
714
4.8
1041
-2.8
3263280
3.8
1991
762
6.7
951
-8.6
3373932
3.4
1996
795
4.3
1008
6
3618297
7.2
2001
786
-1.1
1086
7.7
3737277
3.3
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Table C2a:
Percentage of Usually Resident Population 14 years & under
1981-2001 1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Lower Waitaki
33
27.7
22.8
23
26
Amuri
30
30.325
31.4
27.5
27.9
26.9
24.4
23.2
23
22.7
New Zealand
Source: Statistics New Zealand
25 There were difficulties reconciling the total UR population of Amuri from Supermap so the proportions for these three census years were calculated using the totals from the age groups, and are included in Tables 2 and 3 in italics.
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Table C2b:
Percentage of Usually Resident Population 15-64 years 1981-
2001 1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Lower Waitaki
59.4
64.3
68.6
66.1
65.8
Amuri
66.1
65.6
63.9
64.2
64.1
New Zealand
63.2
65.2
65.5
65.3
65.3
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Table C3:
Percentage of Farmers and Farm Workers Occupation Group
under 30 years of age 1981-2001
Lower Waitaki Amuri New Zealand
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
24.5
27.5
30.1
35.9
36.5
40
35.6
31.1
29.7
30.8
34.1
31
24.4
24.7
22.2
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Table C4:
Percentage of Dairy Farmers & Dairy Workers in the Farmers
and Farm Workers Occupation Group 1981-2001
Lower Waitaki Amuri New Zealand
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
5.7
19.4
39.7
48.7
56.8
-
2.6
9.5
36.3
45.1
24.4
24
23.4
23.5
23.8
Source: Statistics New Zealand, using the relevant occupational codes for each census
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Table C5:
Percentage of Dairy Farmers & Dairy Workers under 30 years
of age 1981-2001 1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Lower Waitaki
-
58.3
40
50
45.2
Amuri
-
-
71.4
42.4
36.6
24.4
31.5
24.3
25.1
21.5
New Zealand
Note: Percentages were not calculated for Lower Waitaki in 1981, and Amuri in 1981 and 1986 as the number of dairy farmers and workers recorded in these areas at these censuses was below ten. Source: Statistics New Zealand
Table C6:
Percentage of Usually Resident Population aged 15 years &
over with no educational qualifications 1981-2001
Lower Waitaki Amuri New Zealand
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
59.1
40
37.5
36.6
31.2
40
41.2
35.6
34.3
29.8
44.4
37.1
31.1
32.2
23.7
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Table C7:
Percentage of usual residents employed outside the primary
sector 1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Lower Waitaki
41.3
42.6
44.3
38
40
Amuri
49.4
46.4
46.7
36.2
40.1
New Zealand
87.6
88.3
87.9
84.6
86.4
Source: Statistics New Zealand, adjusted for reclassification of sectors in 1996
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Table C8:
Percentage of residents with high and low status occupation
High status
Low status
High status
Low status
High status
Low status
2001
Low status
1996
High status
1991
Low status
1986
High status
1981
Lower Waitaki
6.2
76.5
7.7
79.9
12.8
70.4
13.6
71.4
19.2
70.2
Amuri
9.3
70.3
9
68.7
20.4
67.8
15.1
67
18.6
69.6
New Zealand
17.7
43.5
19.9
41.5
34.4
37
34.2
33.6
37.4
36
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Table C9:
Median Household Income ($NZ) 1981-2001 1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Lower Waitaki
14220
18690
31060
34740
43860
Amuri irrigated area26
15750
17580
24060
34700
42000
New Zealand
14960
23230
30910
34710
39590
Source: Statistics New Zealand
26
The settlements of Culverden and Rotherham are excluded.
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APPENDIX D- WAIMATE DISTRICT SCHOOL ROLLS School number and name Waimate High School
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
470
427
409
397
346
325
306
352
352
351
30
26
30
30
42
68
60
56
38
45
47
51
30
29
34
39
33
43
37
Cannington School Glenavy School
33
44
Hook School
16
16
Hunter School
19
15
Ikawai School
10
11
Makikihi School
15
16
36
Maungati School
21
17
16
Morven School
38
31
33
32
29
34
34
34
27
31
Otaio School
21
11
Southburn School
30
St Patrick's School (Waimate)
99
90
85
82
73
61
72
63
77
79
Waihao Downs School
32
30
43
43
37
39
48
41
49
40
Waihaorunga School
13
19
17
18
22
19
21
17
13
9
Waimate Centennial School
170
185
188
182
192
164
169
176
152
146
Waimate Main School
142
147
127
130
119
120
107
119
132
120
Waituna Creek School
35
32
38
38
44
57
68
71
81
75
9
10
10
8
6
7
7
9
27
29
26
29
25
30
23
24
1200
1130
1070
1087
1008
976
962
984
973
939
Cattle Creek School Hakataramea Valley School Total
211193.08
38
211193.08
