BlackRock Private Equity Partners Private Equity Asset Class Discussion and Market Overview
Stephen J. Kelly Managing Director
Table of Contents 1.
Asset Class Discussion • What is Private Equity? • Who invests in Private Equity? • Why invest in Private Equity? • How much should one invest in Private Equity? • How does Private Equity work in practice?
Structures Cashflow Mechanics J-Curve
• What are some risks associated with Private Equity?
2. Private Equity Market Overview •
Current Macro Environment — —
Capital Raised Credit Markets
•
Fund of Funds Environment
•
Is the Party Over? — —
Historical Performance Across Market Cycles Outlook for the Future
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Private Equity Asset Class Discussion
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What is Private Equity? Private equity represents investments in private or unlisted companies:
• Traditionally thought of as an alternative asset class • Is a sizeable asset class in its own right • Generally includes investments in the following categories: VENTURE CAPITAL
SEED
EARLY STAGE
EXPANSION STAGE
BUYOUTS / RESTRUCTURING
LATER STAGE
PRE-IPO
DEVELOPMENT CAPITAL
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LEVERAGED BUYOUT
MANAGEMENT RESTRUCTURING MEZZANINE BUYOUT
Value Creation – How do PE Firms Make Money ? Private Equity returns are driven by three basic premises:
BUY
1) How well do you purchase the asset?
CHANGE
2) How well do you develop the asset?
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SELL
3) How well do you exit the asset?
How is Private Equity Investing Different than Buying Public Equities?
•
Level of Due Diligence – PE has access to proprietary information BUY
•
Entry Valuations – Private firms typically trade at a discount
•
Control of Investment – PE investors take board seats as majority owners
•
Value-Added Investing – PE investors are operators vs. passive observers
•
Time horizon – Longer-term investing
CHANGE
SELL
•
Exit Options – PE investing has flexibility across IPOs, M&As and ReCaps
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6
Who Invests in Private Equity? Investors in Private Equity Based on Available Dry Powder Family Offices / Foundations
Endowments 6.0%
6.0% Sovereign
Public Pensions
Wealth Funds/
30.0%
Government 10.0% Financial Institutions 15.0%
Insurance Non-Public
17.0%
Pensions 16.0%
Fund of Funds represent approximately 10-15% of LP commitments to PE firms.*
7
* Fund of Funds, asset managers and secondary fund of funds excluded from study because they are intermediaries. Source: “Driving the Shakeout in Private Equity, The Role of Investors in the Industry’s Renaissance,” The Boston Consulting Group, July 2009.
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How Much Should One Invest in Private Equity?
•
Investors in private equity seek higher long-term return and risk diversification
•
Returns typically are above those available in the public markets ― Investments made in companies at the start of an anticipated
period of rapid growth
― Potential premium for illiquidity •
Diversification ― Many of the factors that drive returns to private equity investors
are unrelated to what is happening in the public markets
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8
Private Equity Has Outperformed Public Equity and Fixed Income, However… 15-year Annualized IRR
10-year Annualized IRR US PE Top Quartile Mean
US PE Top Quartile Mean
Europe PE Top Quartile Mean
Europe PE Top Quartile Mean
World Equities Top Quartile Mean
World Equities Top Quartile Mean
US Equities Top Quartile Mean
US Equities Top Quartile Mean
Europe PE Mean
US PE Mean
US PE Mean
Europe PE Mean
World Government Bond
US Equities
World Equities
World Equities
US Equities
World Government Bond
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Data as of December 31, 2008. Includes performance of all private equity funds in every vintage. All Asset Classes except for private equity are sourced from Thomson DataStream, using ready made indexes: MSCI USA-Index (USD); MSCI World Index (USD); S&P/Citigroup W. Gov. Bond Index (USD). Index performance assumes reinvestment of all distributions for the period ended December 31, 2008. “Top Quartile Mean” represents the average of the top quartile population. Private equity returns shown above are investment horizon pooled IRR returns, calculated on a total return basis, for the 10- and 15-year periods ended December 31, 2008, compounded annually, net to investors of all fees, expenses and carried interest. Private equity returns are derived from the Venture Economics VentureXpert database as of May 15, 2009 which contains a representative sample of the private equity universe. Cash flows collected from investors and general partners are used to calculate IRRs based on cash-in/cash-out returns, with consideration of the net asset value of the remaining partnership holdings. The IRR is an annualized compounded rate of return calculated using monthly cash flows and annual valuations. Public market returns are typically stated as timeweighted returns, while private equity returns are stated as internal rates of return, or dollar weighted returns. Thus, care must be taken when making direct comparisons of public and private market performance. Please see accompanying End Notes for additional information on quartile rankings. Performance data reflects past performance and does not guarantee future results. The returns shown are not predictive of the Fund’s future returns.
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40%
50%
…Manager Selection Is Critical to Generate Superior Returns Persistent, wide disparity between median and top-quartile private equity returns in the United States and Europe
U.S. Private Equity ($)
Difference Between 15-Year Top- and Bottom-Quartile Performance1 21%
European Private Equity (€)
Difference Between 15-Year Top- and Bottom-Quartile Performance1 21%
17.4%
15.9% 16%
16% 11.5%
11%
11%
6.2%
6.6%
6%
5.3%
6% 0.9%
1%
16.3%
0.5%
2.9%
1% -1.1%
-4% -4%
-1.6%
-9% -6.2%
-9% Buyout
Top Quartile
-1.2%
Venture Capital
Median
-8.2%
-14% Mezzanine
Bottom Quartile
Buyout
Top Quartile
Venture Capital
Median
1 Venture Economics Information Services, Cumulative Vintage Year Composite Performance IRRs for the 15-year periods ended December 31, 2008 for US and Europe PE. Private equity returns are internal rates of return net to investors after fees and carried interest. Private equity returns are derived from the Venture Economics VentureXpert database as of May 15, 2009, which contains a representative sample of the Private equity universe. Cash flows collected from investors and General Partners are used to calculate IRRs based on cash-in/cash-out returns, with consideration of the net asset value of the remaining partnership holdings. The IRR is an annualized compounded rate of return calculated using monthly cash flows and annual valuations. Please see accompanying End Notes for additional information on quartile rankings. Performance data reflects past performance and does not guarantee future results. The returns shown are not predictive of the Fund’s returns.
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Bottom Quartile
PE Return Dispersion: All US Private Equity Funds (Vintages 1969 through 2008) Annual Net IRRs (%) Vintage Year 1969-75 1976-79 1980 1980-83 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
11
Max IRR
Upper Quartile
Median
Lower Quartile Min IRR
36.20
24.50
19.90
12.50
74.10
43.80
31.20
14.00
7.80 3.20
41.10
21.60
13.70
9.10
-1.90 -57.50
146.70
13.30
7.50
0.90
40.20
14.80
10.10
0.10
-3.30
13.50
9.10
4.20
0.10
-21.40
146.70
13.00
6.90
1.40
-57.50
124.80
12.40
4.20
1.00
-18.40
54.70
16.80
11.80
3.40
-41.50
64.50
13.00
7.10
3.80
-11.20
65.10
17.10
8.20
0.70
-69.80
42.70
18.50
10.50
1.80
-10.20
71.30
21.80
11.20
4.40
-42.20
74.90
19.30
10.30
-0.10
-25.30
61.30
25.60
14.10
4.20
-0.70
116.30
37.00
15.70
10.30
-47.20
98.60
28.90
12.60
3.60
-25.00
112.90
28.60
14.90
1.20
-47.90
247.80
32.20
10.50
2.10
-28.60
454.90
39.90
8.10
0.30
-16.30
296.00
25.20
8.50
-1.10
-27.90
721.00
10.40
3.50
-3.20
-44.80
140.00
5.70
-1.70
-10.60
-100.00
112.10
7.80
-1.20
-5.50
-25.50
58.80
12.90
2.40
-3.10
-24.10
54.60
13.10
1.30
-2.20
-19.10
41.60
13.60
5.80
2.00
-7.60
60.80
9.40
1.50
-7.60
-35.20
29.80
7.90
0.70
-5.50
-18.80
19.90
2.00
-8.70
-19.00
-67.70
78.40
-10.40
-21.50
-32.30
-68.70
24.10
-24.70
-38.90
-57.00
-91.70
Source: Venture Economics Information Services, Cumulative Vintage Year Performance for all US Private Equity funds through the period ending December 31, 2008. Private Equity returns are compounded annually, net to investors after fees and carried interest. Private Equity returns are derived from the Venture Economics VentureXpert database as of August 31, 2009, which contains a representative sample of the Private Equity universe. Cash flows collected from investors and general partners are used to calculate IRRs based on cash-in/cash-out returns, with consideration of the net asset value of the remaining partnership holdings. The IRR is an annualized compounded rate of return calculated using monthly cash flow and annual valuations. Performance data reflects past performance and is not indicative of future results. The returns shown are not predictive of the Fund’s returns.
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Diversification Within PE is Also Important
140.0 120.0
Annualized IRR (%)
100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-40.0 -60.0 US VC 1st Quartile
12
US Buyout 1st Quartile
Data Source: VentureXpert database from Thomson Venture Economics, Cumulative Vintage Year Performance as of December 31, 2008.
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How Much Should One Invest in Private Equity?
• Set allocation target as a % of the overall plan. Factors to consider include: ― Risk appetite ― Liquidity ― Plan liability profile ― Time horizon ― Level of diversification sought ― Be a consistent investor; do not try to “time the market” ― Achieve appropriate levels of diversification •
Institutional research suggests an allocation of 5% to 15% to alternative assets does not significantly increase volatility
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How Much Should One Invest In Private Equity? Average Asset Allocation to Private Equity by U.S. Institutional Investors (1995-2005)
14
12.6
12
(% of Total Assets)
10 8
6.9 5.8
6 4 2 0 Endowment/Foundation
Corporate Pension
Source: Russell Survey on Alternative Investing 2006.
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Public Pension
How Does One Invest in Private Equity?
Direct investment into private companies
Ways to Invest in PE Include:
Private Equity Funds Quoted Closed-End Private Equity Funds (primarily in Europe) Private Equity Fund of Funds
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How Does One Invest in Private Equity? Mechanics of Traditional Funds and Fund of Funds Traditional Fund Structure
Fund of Funds Structure
Investors (Limited Partners) Cash investment
Cash returns
Fund Manager (General Partner) Investment A
Investors (Limited Partners)
Investment B
Cash investment
Cash returns
Fund of Funds Manager (General Partner)
Investment C
Fund Manager A
A
B
Investment in underlying company or fund Return from underlying company or fund
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C
Fund Manager B
A
B
C
Direct CoInvestment A
Direct CoInvestment B
How Does One Invest in Private Equity? Mechanics of Traditional Funds and Fund of Funds • Limited Partnerships are legal contracts ― Generally 10 years ― Provisions to extend, usually in one to two year increments
• Investment minimum is typically $5 million or greater • Investments are made over three to five years ― Capital is drawn from investors “as needed” to fund individual investments ― Typically 10 days notice
• Investments are made in 10 to 30 portfolio companies, depending on the type of fund (VC or LBO) • Thereafter, investments are managed and gradually realized • Distributions, if any, are made either in cash or stock to limited partners 17 CONFIDENTIAL. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED IN ANY FORM.
17
How Does One Invest in Private Equity? Cash Flow Example • Representative cash flows on a $100 commitment to a 10-year partnership assuming a 2.5x return, a 5-year investment period, and a gross IRR of 33% Year 1 Year 2 Drawn Cash $ (5) $ (25) Cash Returned Net Cash Flow $ (5) $ (25) Cumulative Cash Flow $
Year 3 $ (35) $ 10 $ (25)
Year 4 $ (30) $ 25 $ (5)
Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 $ (5) $ 35 $ 45 $ 60 $ 50 $ 20 $ 5 $ 30 $ 45 $ 60 $ 50 $ 20 $ 5
(5) $ (30) $ (55) $ (60) $ (30) $
15
$
75
$ 125
$ 145
Total $ (100) $ 250 $ 150
$ 150
• Capital is drawn as needed during years 1 through 5 • Capital is returned as investments are realized (typically years 3 through 10) • In this example, 100% of committed capital is drawn (not always the case) • Due to “netting” of cash flows, investor is only out-of-pocket $60 in year 4
* This graph is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not necessarily reflect the future results of any specific private equity fund or fund of funds. Private equity funds are long term investments and, although they seek to appreciate in value, there is no guarantee that investors will recover all or a part of their capital contributions or that the investment will follow this pattern of returns. The results of the Fund may differ materially from the results shown in the graph above.
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Historical Valuation of Private Companies • Underlying investments are illiquid, so valuations are necessarily subjective • Value of underlying investment is only certain when realized • Interim valuations tend to be quite conservative (e.g., cost) and write-downs are not uncommon due to restructuring, growth and changes within an investment, especially in the early stages • Investments generally are written up from cost upon the occurrence of a valuation event (e.g., a subsequent financing round or IPO) • FAS 157 is rapidly changing the landscape
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Fees and Carried Interest • The annual management fee for a fund is roughly 2% to 2.5% of committed capital for venture funds, 1.5% to 2% for buyout funds • “Carried interest” is the General Partner’s share of partnership profits (i.e., performance fees): ― Most often set at 20% of capital gains, typically after committed capital is returned
• Most funds offer a preferred return (or a hurdle) of 5% to 10% per annum before the General Partner begins to receive carried interest
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What is the “J-Curve” in Private Equity ? Successful private equity investment returns typically follow a “J curve” pattern Hypothetical Private Equity Return
Illustrative data only.
21
Note: Chart does not reflect actual data. This graph is provided for illustrative purposes only and does not necessarily reflect the future results of any specific private equity fund, or fund of funds. Private equity funds are long-term investments and, although they seek to appreciate in value, there is no guarantee that investors will recover all or a part of their capital contributions or that the investment will follow this pattern of returns. The results of a private equity investment may differ materially from the results shown in the graph above.
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What are the Risks in Private Equity Investing? •
Not diversifying across all segments of the market
•
Not diversifying over time
•
Investing in immature markets
•
Not being in a position to accept inherent illiquidity of the investment
•
Greatest risk is choice of fund given wide dispersion between the bottom and top quartile returns
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Private Equity Conclusions •
Private equity has the potential to enhance returns and provide diversification for long-term equity investors
•
Benefits of private equity investing are realized over the long term, so investors should be patient
•
Care in the choice of individual funds is vital as top performers significantly outperform the median
•
It is crucial to build a diversified portfolio when investing in private equity
•
A long-term strategic commitment is key as private equity cannot be easily timed: ― Keeps true to strategic commitment through the cycle ―
Leaves specific timing decision to General Partners
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BlackRock Private Equity Partners Market Overview
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Historical Commitments to Private Equity U.S. and European Commitments to Private Equity 1990 to 2008 600
117.4
113.8
$ in billions
400
107.8 65.8
77.8
200 24.7 2.5
0
5.3
6.5
11.1 21.0
76.8 4.6 9.6 1.7 44.4 52.3 35.4 22.8 18.2 13.8 9.9
432.6
463.3
30.5 25.6
218.2
121.5143.9
50.1 26.4
29.6 29.8 66.9 64.7
189.7
245.2
102.8
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
U.S. Commitments
European Commitments
Source: Venture Economics VentureXpert US and Europe Commitments Per Fund Raising (by year) All Private Equity as of December 31, 2008.
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Leveraged Loan Spreads Volatile Amidst Credit Crisis Average Secondary Spreads by Rating
Source: Standard and Poor’s LCD and S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index Excludes all loans trading at 70% of par or less and facilities in default 1997 – 8/21/09
L+3600
Assumes discount from par is amortized evenly over a three-year life.
L+3300 L+3000
B Loans
L+2700
All BB/B Loans
L+2400 L+2100
BB Loans
L+1800 L+1500 L+1200 L+900 L+600 L+300
Ja Apn-9 r 7 Ju -97 O c l- 9 7 Ja t-9 n- 7 Ap 9 r 8 Ju -98 O c l- 9 8 Ja t-9 8 n A p -9 r 9 Ju -99 O c l- 9 9 Ja t-9 n- 9 Ap 0 r 0 Ju -00 O c l- 0 0 Ja t-0 0 n A p -0 r 1 Ju -01 O c l- 0 1 Ja t-0 n- 1 Ap 0 r 2 Ju -02 O c l- 0 2 Ja t-0 2 n A p -0 r 3 Ju -03 O c l- 0 3 Ja t-0 n- 3 Ap 0 r 4 Ju -04 O c l- 0 4 Ja t-0 4 n A p -0 r 5 Ju -05 O c l- 0 5 Ja t-0 5 Apn-0 r 6 Ju -06 O c l- 0 6 Ja t-0 n- 6 Ap 0 r 7 Ju -07 O c l- 0 7 Ja t-0 7 Apn-0 r 8 Ju -08 O c l- 0 8 Ja t-0 n- 8 Ap 0 r 9 Ju -09 l- 0 9
L+0
Source: Standard & Poor’s LCD. Data as of 21 August 2009.
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Leveraged Loan Secondary Prices Plummet; Distressed Players Line-Up Average Bid and Ask
Source: Standard and Poor’s LCD and S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index Selected Large Institutional Flow Loans
105.00 100.00 95.00 90.00
Ask
85.00 80.00
Bid
75.00 70.00 65.00
Pr e 12 -9/ /1 11 2 03 /2 /1 0 0 1 2 06 /2 /0 0 0 3 3 08 /2 /2 0 0 8 3 11 /2 /2 0 0 0 3 02 /2 /2 0 0 4 3 05 /2 /1 0 0 8 4 08 /2 /1 0 0 0 4 11 /2 /0 0 0 4 4 02 /2 /0 0 0 8 4 05 /2 /0 0 0 3 5 07 /2 /2 0 0 6 5 10 /2 /1 0 0 8 5 01 /2 /1 0 0 7 5 04 /2 /1 0 0 1 6 07 /2 /0 0 0 6 6 09 /2 /2 0 0 8 6 12 /2 /2 0 0 7 6 03 /2 /2 0 0 2 6 06 /2 /1 0 0 4 7 09 /2 /1 0 0 1 7 12 /2 /0 0 0 6 7 03 /2 /1 0 0 1 7 06 /2 /0 0 0 3 8 10 /2 /1 0 0 0 8 04 /2 /0 0 0 9/ 8 20 09
60.00
Source: Standard and Poor’s LCD. As of 21 August 2009.
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Covenant-Lite Transactions Evaporate
Covenant-Lite Transaction Volume $100
$96.6
$90 $80
$ in billions
$70 $60 $50 $40 $30
$23.6
$20 $10
$1.8
$3.1
1997
1998
$0.3
$0.3
$0.0
$0.0
$0.5
$0.1
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
$0
28
Source: S&P (PMDZone). As of 30 June 2009
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$2.4
2005
2006
2007
$2.5
$0.3
2008
1H 2009
Credit Market Correction Forces Down PE Leverage Multiples… Average Total Debt/EBITDA for US and European Transactions
7.0x
6.0x
5.0x
4.0x
3.0x
2.0x 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 US
29
2006
2007
Europe
Source: S&P (PMDZone). As of 30 June 2009. Average Debt Multiples of Large Corporate LBO Loans for US (Defined as Issuers with EBITDA of more than $50M). US data as of 30 June 2009 is not available due to small sample size.
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2008
1H 2009
…And Leveraged Loan Volume Global New-Issue Leveraged Loan Volume $900 762.0
$800 $700
650.5
$600 $500
448.1
$400 $300
340.2 256.0
264.0
238.3
201.1
$200
177.2
233.9
218.8
$100
45.6
$0 1998
30
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: S&P (PMDZone). As of 30 June 2009
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2005
2006
2007
2008
1H 2009
LBO Valuations Starting to Moderate US LBO: EV/EBITDA Multiples Paid
EU LBO: EV/EBITDA Multiples Paid
11.0x 10.0x
11.0x
9.0x
10.0x
8.0x
9.0x 8.0x
7.0x
7.0x
6.0x
6.0x
5.0x
5.0x
4.0x
4.0x
3.0x
6/ 30 /0 9
20 08
LT M
20 07
20 06
20 05
20 04
20 02
20 08
20 07
0.0x 20 06
0.0x 20 05
1.0x
20 04
1.0x
20 03
2.0x
20 02
2.0x
20 03
3.0x
31
Source: Standard and Poors (PMDzone). Data as of 30 June 2009. US data as of 30 June 2009 is not available due to small sample size.
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M&A and LBO Activity Has Followed Suit EU & US M&A Announced Volume $1,000
EU & US LBOs $700
$900
$600
$800 $500
$ in billions
$700 $600
$400
$500 $300
$400 $300
$200
$200 $100
$100 $0
$0
2007
32
2008
1H09
2007
Source: Thomson Reuters League Tables, Global M&A Financial Advisory Report, and Standard and Poors (PMDzone). Data as of 30 June 2009.
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2008
1H09
Default Rates Reaching Record Levels Default Rate by Principal Amount 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0%
33
Source: Standard and Poors (PMD Zone) as of 30 June 2009.
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Jun-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
Jun-04
Dec-03
Jun-03
Dec-02
Jun-02
Dec-01
Jun-01
Dec-00
Jun-00
Dec-99
Jun-99
Dec-98
0.0%
BlackRock Private Equity Partners Fund of Funds Market Overview
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Historical Commitments to Private Equity Fund of Funds 35000
$32,432
30000 $25,064
$24,912
$ in thousands
25000
$21,611
$20,720
20000 15000
$16,612 $13,067
$12,498
$12,840
$12,441
$11,299 $9,688
$9,345
10000
$7,700
$7,294 $6,800
$5,882
$3,711
$3,577
5000
$8,703
$5,855 $4,145
0 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Total Raised by Fund of Funds
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total Raised by the Five Larget Funds of Funds
Source: Private Equity Analyst
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2008
Key Fund of Funds Competitors US-based Fund of Funds Managers by AUM
Global Fund of Funds Managers by AUM Rank
Management Firm
AUM ($ Mil)
Rank
Management Firm
AUM ($ Mil)
1
Goldman Sachs Asset Management
31,000
1
Goldman Sachs Asset Management
31,000
2
Credit Suisse Customized Funds
24,000
2
Credit Suisse Customized Funds
24,000
3
Pathway Capital
22,500
3
Pathway Capital
22,500
4
Partners Group
20,700
4
HarbourVest Partners
20,000
5
Capital Dynamics
20,000
5
Adams Street Partners
19,000
6
HarbourVest Partners
20,000
6
JP Morgan Investment
18,000
7
Pantheon Ventures
20,000
7
Commonfund Capital
11,500
8
Adams Street Partners
19,000
8
Horsley Bridge Partners
11,450
9
JP Morgan Investment
18,000
9
AIG Global
11,000
10
LGT Capital
12,500
10
NB Alternatives
10,000
11
Commonfund Capital
11,500
11
Siguler Guff
8,300
12
Horsley Bridge Partners
11,450
12
Morgan Stanley Alternatives
7,500
13
AIG Global
11,000
13
BlackRock Alternative Advisors (PEP)
6,100
14
NB Alternatives
10,000
15
Standard Life Investments
8,563
16
Siguler Guff
8,300
17
Morgan Stanley Alternatives
7,500
18
Sal Oppenheim Private Equity
6,796
19
BlackRock Alternative Advisors (PEP)
6,100
Total Universe # of managers Total AUM (mil)
Global
US-based
107
77
$424,969
$282,272
Of the top 18 managers, only 3 started on/after 1999, making BlackRock PEP a recent entrant to the marketplace. Source: Private Equity Insider, 20 May 2009. Operators of Private Equity Fund of Funds
36 CONFIDENTIAL. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED IN ANY FORM.
Key Fund of Funds Market Trends Strategic Partnerships • Large plans (or UHNW family offices) recently entering or greatly expanding exposure to PE •
Targets have staffing limitations ― Need to outsource some discretionary management ― Seek advice on overall PE program ― May wish to develop in-house expertise
• Choose to partner with a firm willing to provide training, transparency and access to broader resources of the firm
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Key Fund of Funds Market Trends Specialization • Sophisticated private equity investors with core private equity portfolios already built-out ― Targets may do core investing in-house or else have entrenched third party providers
• Seek discretionary managers for hard-to-access/analyze specialty private equity areas, e.g. ― Venture capital ― Small-market buyouts ― Direct co-investments ― Secondaries
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Private Equity Performance Across Market Cycles: • Is The Party Over?
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Economic Dislocations Benefit Private Equity, But… First Quartile
(25th
US Buyout Percentile) Vintage Year Returns
50.00 45.00 40.00
First Quartile Net IRR (%)
35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 -20.00
19 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 8083
Black Monday
Recession
Asian & Russian Financial Crisis
Dotcom Bubble Burst
9/11
Recession
Vintage Year US Buyout Performance data for US Buyout as of December 31, 2008. VentureXpert Venture Economics Cumulative Vintage Performance Report for US Buyouts, derived on September 3, 2009. Economic or market disruption data from National Bureau of Economic Research retrieved on January 29, 2008.
40 CONFIDENTIAL. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED IN ANY FORM.
Credit Bubble
…Primarily in the Top Quartile US Buyout Vintage Year Returns: Net IRR Differential Top Quartile (25th Percentile) vs. Bottom Quartile (75th Percentile) 50.00 45.00 40.00
IRR Spread (%)
35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 19 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 8083 Recession
Black Monday
Recession
Asian & Russian Financial Crisis
Vintage Year
Dotcom Bubble Burst
9/11
IRR Spread Performance data as of December 31, 2008. VentureXpert Venture Economics Cumulative Vintage Performance Report for US Buyouts, derived on September 3, 2009. Economic or market disruption data from National Bureau of Economic Research retrieved on January 29. 2008.
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Credit Bubble
Commitments to PE Follow the Public Market, But…
S&P 500 Index Value vs. Annual Private Equity Commitments Raised (US Buyouts) 300,000
1,600 1,400
250,000
USD Mil
200,000
1,000
150,000
800 600
100,000
400 50,000
200
0
0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Black Monday
Recession
Vintage Year
Asian & Russian Financial Crisis
US Buyout Commitments Raised
42
Dotcom Burst
S&P 500 Index Value
S&P 500 Index Value annual year-end index value from 1984-2006 sourced from Bloomberg. VentureXpert Venture Economics Fund Commitments Report for US Buyouts derived on September 3, 2009.
CONFIDENTIAL. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED IN ANY FORM.
9/11
Credit Bubble
Index Value
1,200
...Returns and Commitments Are Not Correlated (US) US Buyout First Quartile Percentile) Vintage Year Returns vs. Annual Buyout Funds Raised (25th
300,000
50.00 40.00
250,000
30.00 20.00 150,000 10.00 100,000 0.00 50,000
-10.00
0
-20.00 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Black Monday
Recession
Vintage Year
Asian & Russian Financial Crisis
US Buyout Commitments Raised
Dotcom Burst
9/11
First Quartile IRR
Performance data as of December 31, 2008. VentureXpert Venture Economics Cumulative Vintage Performance Report for US Buyouts and Fund Commitments for US Buyout Funds, derived on September 3, 2009. Economic or market disruption data from National Bureau of Economic Research retrieved on January 29, 2008.
43 CONFIDENTIAL. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED IN ANY FORM.
Credit Bubble
IRR (%)
USD Mil
200,000
Our Response to Current Market Conditions • While the market is correcting, there is more to come ― Prices are still high ― Leverage is difficult to find ― Default rates—after an extended period below historical levels— are rising quickly • Helped by “covenant-lite” structures • Distress will come when borrowers default on Interest and/or when refinancing comes due in 2013-2014
• Things will likely get worse before they get better
44
The information and opinions expressed are those of Private Equity Partners as of September 12, 2008 and do not necessarily reflect the views of BlackRock as a whole, or of any other group within BlackRock.
CONFIDENTIAL. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED IN ANY FORM.
Private Equity Conclusions • As always, take a diversified, long-term approach to private equity investing ― Diversifying by region, investment focus, vintage year, industry and manager helps to mitigate market risk ― Be positioned to sell into hot markets and buy into markets currently out-of-favor
• Invest with quality PE firms that demonstrate buying discipline ― In volatile periods, top-performers significantly outperform
• While we don’t “time the market” history suggests we are entering a prime buying opportunity ― Falling asset prices 45 CONFIDENTIAL. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED IN ANY FORM.
Outlook For Future Private Equity Returns • Private Equity returns will still outperform public markets •
Private Equity industry returns will come down ― Magnitude will vary across segments ― Capital calls will slow ― Distributions become a trickle ― Holding periods increase
•
Gap between top performers vs. average performers vs. poor performers will widen The views expressed are those of Private Equity Partners and do not necessarily reflect the view of BlackRock as a whole, or of any other group within BlackRock. The information and opinions expressed are as of September 1, 2009, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.
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Outlook For Future Private Equity Returns • FAS 157 will introduce additional volatility into Private Equity returns in the US •
Average premium over public markets will narrow ― But could vary by segment
•
Conclusion: — Private Equity is still an attractive option compared to broader financial markets — It is still important today to be with people who have the experience and proven track record
The views expressed are those of Private Equity Partners and do not necessarily reflect the view of BlackRock as a whole, or of any other group within BlackRock. The information and opinions expressed are as of September 1, 2009, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.
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BlackRock
Private Equity Partners
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