Birth Trends in the South East Midlands
Michael Griffin
2nd March 2012
Birth Trends in the South East Midlands
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Contents Recent Birth Trends by Local Authority .............................................................................. 2 Projected Births by Local Authority ..................................................................................... 2 Office of National Statistics Projections........................................................................... 2 Local Projections ............................................................................................................. 3 Births by Hospital Trust and Local Authority in 2010/11 ..................................................... 5 Estimated Future Births by Local Authority and Hospital Trust........................................... 7
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2 | Birth Trends in the South East Midlands
Recent Birth Trends by Local Authority The table below shows the trend in the number of live births for each local authority within the South East Midlands for the years 2006 to 2010. Table 1: Live births by local authority 2006 to 2010
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Northamptonshire Corby Daventry East Northamptonshire Kettering Northampton South Northamptonshire Wellingborough Milton Keynes UA Luton UA Bedfordshire Bedford/Bedford UA Mid Bedfordshire South Bedfordshire Central Bedfordshire South East Midlands
8,588 745 864 976
8,990 803 823 1,040
9,225 880 878 1,039
9,054 908 813 958
9,258 919 798 1,017
% Change Since 2006 7.8% 23.4% -‐7.6% 4.2%
1,153 3,028 899
1,198 3,135 944
1,212 3,298 922
1,250 3,250 862
1,267 3,383 854
9.9% 11.7% -‐5.0%
923 3,415 3,325 4,943 1,938 1,555 1,450 N/A 20,271
1,047 3,501 3,488 5,036 1,928 1,635 1,473 N/A 21,015
996 3,767 3,555 5,357 2,111 1,618 1,628 N/A 21,904
1,013 3,804 3,503 5,254 2,162 N/A N/A 3,092 21,615
1,020 3,912 3,532 5,295 2,119 N/A N/A 3,176 21,997
10.5% 14.6% 6.2% 7.1% 9.3% 8.5%
Source: Office for National Statistics, Birth Summary Tables
Table 1 shows that between 2006 and 2010 the total number of live births increased by 8.5%. The number of live births increased in each of the four South East Midlands localities, with Milton Keynes experiencing the largest percentage growth (14.6%) over this period. The number of live births recorded in Daventry and Corby in 2010 was lower than the number recorded in 2006.
Projected Births by Local Authority Office of National Statistics Projections The table below shows the projected future number of live births as estimated by the Office of National Statistics in 2008. These are the latest consistent set of projections for future birth numbers. Table 2: Projected numbers of live births for Local Authorities in the South East Midlands
Northamptonshire Corby Daventry East Northamptonshire Kettering Solutions for Public Health
2012 8,900 800 800 1,000 1,200
2015 9,000 800 800 1,000 1,200
2018 9,300 800 800 1,000 1,200
2020 9,300 800 900 1,000 1,200 www.sph.nhs.uk
Birth Trends in the South East Midlands
Northampton South Northamptonshire Wellingborough Milton Keynes Luton Bedfordshire Bedford Mid Bedfordshire South Bedfordshire SEM
3,300 900 1,000 3,500 3,700 5,000 1,900 1,500 1,500 21,100
3,400 900 1,000 3,500 3,800 5,000 1,900 1,500 1,500 21,300
3,500 900 1,000 3,600 3,900 5,100 1,900 1,600 1,600 21,900
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3,500 1,000 1,000 3,600 4,000 5,100 1,900 1,600 1,600 22,000
Source: ONS 2008 sub-national population projections for local and unitary authorities
Table 2 shows that the ONS expected quite modest increases in the number of live births across the South East Midlands between 2012 and 2020 in their 2008 based population projections. Comparison with the recorded live births shown in Table 1 for the years since 2008 suggests that the number of recorded live births has been higher than the ONS predicted.
Local Projections Some local authorities produce their own forecasts for future numbers of births using local population projections and published fertility rates. These are likely to incorporate more recent data on the actual number of live births than the 2008 ONS projections, but are produced using different methodologies, at different times and for different time periods. The table below shows a projection for the number of live births in 2019 for the local authorities in Northamptonshire published by Northamptonshire County Council. The data is drawn from the Northamptonshire County Council Demographic Model Population Forecasts version 3.07. This projects population growth modelled on national population data (ONS) and local housing and population growth. Table 3: Northamptonshire County Council Projection for live births by local authority
Source: Northamptonshire County Council
This forecast appears to be based on the ONS live births data for 2009 and indicates a greater rate of increase than the 2008 ONS projections. The table below shows birth projections produced for Milton Keynes by Milton Keynes Council in 2011.
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4 | Birth Trends in the South East Midlands Table 4: Milton Keynes Council projected number of births Year All Births
2009 3810
2010 3800
2011 3791
2012 3714
2013 3690
2014 3691
2015 3715
2016 3761
2017 3801
2018 3822
Source: Milton Keynes Council, 2011
As with the ONS projections, these suggest very little growth in the number of live births for residents of Milton Keynes between 2009 and 2019, but feature a higher absolute number of projected births than the ONS projections. The Eastern Region Public Health Observatory (ERPHO) undertook work in 2009 to forecast future numbers of births across the Eastern Region. To do this they developed a modelling methodology where alternative possible future fertility rates are applied to future predictions of the size of the female population aged 15–44 years to give likely future numbers of births. Predicted future female population size was based on ONS 2006-based sub-national population projections. The four fertility scenarios applied were: • The minimum GFR recorded locally from 1974 to 2007; • The maximum GFR recorded locally from 1974 to 2007; • The GFR predicted using statistical modelling (exponential smoothing) based on the GFR from 1974 to 2007; • The GFR predicted using statistical modelling (exponential smoothing) based on the GFR from 2001 to 2007. Table 5 below shows the estimate of live births produced by the final two fertility scenarios listed above. These seem to be the more reliable estimates of the four scenarios developed by ERPHO. The first of the two estimates below is based on the long term general fertility trend since 1974, whereas the second estimate uses only the more recent general fertility trends since 2001. Table 5: Estimated future numbers of live births in Bedfordshire and Luton
PCT Bedfordshire Luton
Applying GFR predicted using statistical modelling 1974 - 2007 2008 2020 5307 5632 3150 3138
Applying GFR predicted using statistical modelling 2001 - 2007 2008 2020 5145 6316 3521 4918
Source: Eastern Regional Public Health Observatory (ERPHO) Birth Trends in the East of England 2009
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2019 3843