BIOL 103 Global Climate Change: Policy & Politics

Americans emit 2x as much CO2 per person as any other major country

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Many scientists advocate reducing CO2 emissions to prevent global warming

These changes will probably cost TRILLIONS of dollars 3

Many say that this would be too expensive

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But, cost of global warming could be many trillions of dollars

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Lecture 1.Do scientists know enough about global warming for us to act? 2.Why do so many people not believe in climate change? 3.Concluding remarks

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Opponents of climate change reform have often argued:

Advice from Frank Luntz (Republican advisor to Newt Gingrich in the 1990’s regarding climate change See Frontline for an interview with Mr. Luntz about this memo.

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Should we wait until “all the facts are in?”

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“All the facts” will never be in

Scientists will always have unanswered questions It is unrealistic to expect all scientists to agree on anything 9

All scientists seldom accept new discoveries For example,

Ronald Fisher was statistical genius & has been called greatest biologist of 20th century.

Ronald Fisher

But Fisher never accepted that smoking causes cancer. 10

Therefore… it is probably more appropriate to ask: “Is there a strong scientific consensus humans are causing global warming?”

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US National Academy of Sciences

"The scientific understanding of climate change

is now sufficiently clear to justify taking steps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the

atmosphere." (2005)

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American Association for the Advancement of Science

“The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society.” (2006) 13

Joint Science Academies of G8 Countries

“It is unequivocal that the climate is changing, and it is very likely that this is predominantly caused by the increasing human interference with the atmosphere. These changes will transform the environmental conditions on Earth unless counter-measures are taken.” (2007)

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Federal Climate Change Science Program “Studies ... show clear evidence of human influences on the climate system (due to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and stratospheric ozone). ... The observed patterns of change over the past 50 years cannot be explained by natural processes alone, nor by the effects of short-lived atmospheric constituents (such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone) alone.” (2006) 15

"The Geological Society of America (GSA) supports the scientific conclusions that Earth’s climate is changing; the climate changes are due in part to human activities; and the probable consequences of the climate changes will be significant and blind to geopolitical boundaries. Furthermore, the potential implications of global climate change and the time scale over which such changes will likely occur require active, effective, long-term planning.” 16

American Meteorological Society "The nature of science is such that there is rarely total agreement among scientists. Individual scientific statements and papers—the validity of some of which has yet to be assessed adequately—can be exploited in the policy debate and can leave the impression that the scientific community is sharply divided on issues where there is, in reality, a strong scientific consensus.” -AMS, 2003 17

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) United Nation work group that reviews climate change literature Has written definitive reports in 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2014

2500+ reviewers 850+ authors Representatives from 113 countries

Best expression of scientific consensus available 18

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IPCC 2014 report1: “It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”

Warming of 1.5 to 4.5 C likely 19

Percentage of peer reviewed scientific papers that accept anthropogenic climate change

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American Association of Petroleum Geologists “The AAPG membership is divided on the degree of influence that anthropogenic CO2 has on recent and potential global temperature increases ... Certain climate simulation models predict that the warming trend will continue, as reported through NAS, AGU, AAAS and AMS. AAPG respects these scientific opinions but wants to add that the current climate warming projections could fall within well-documented natural variations in past climate and observed temperature data.” This is the only organization that doesn’t explicitly state that humans are changing climate.

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There are no national or international scientific organizations that reject human-caused climate change

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2. Yet, Roughly 50% of Americans don’t believe humans are causing planet

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Why does public not accept climate change while scientists do? 1. Public not aware of consensus.

2. Press has not reflected science well. 3. Small number of ‘deniers’ have raised doubts. Most have been funded by fossil fuel industry. 24

Public believes scientists are uncertain about climate change

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Has “balanced” media coverage been a problem?

“… the press’s adherence to balance actually leads to biased coverage of both anthropogenic contributions to global warming and resulting action.” 26

Fred Singer University of Virginia Atmospheric Scientist (emeritus)

Climate change “Denier”?

Does not believe: • Humans are causing global warming • CFC’s harm ozone • Second hand smoke is dangerous 27

3. Americans emit 2x as much CO2 per person as people in any other country

Photo: Gmark1, flickr.com

Some people say “We can’t help it, our country is too big.” “Reducing emissions would be too hard.” 28

Liberating Europe from the Nazis was hard

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Stopping Soviet aggression was hard

But Democrats and Republicans worked together

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And in 1989 the Berlin Wall came down

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And the world was grateful

President George HW Bush in Poland after fall of communist government

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People from all around the world are watching us now

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The United States is the most scientifically and technologically innovative country in the world

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If we decide we want clean sources of energy I believe, we’ll find them.

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Thank you.

Wind farm, Gray County, Kansas

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Study guide

Be able to discuss the degree to which there is controversy or consensus among scientists on climate change.

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