University of Kentucky
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Agricultural Economics
10-2010
Beef, Dairy, Equine, Poultry, Hogs, Sheep, and Goats Kenneth H. Burdine University of Kentucky,
[email protected]
A. Lee Meyer University of Kentucky,
[email protected]
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Follow this and additional works at: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/agecon_present Part of the Agricultural Economics Commons, and the Animal Sciences Commons Repository Citation Burdine, Kenneth H. and Meyer, A. Lee, "Beef, Dairy, Equine, Poultry, Hogs, Sheep, and Goats" (2010). Agricultural Economics Presentations. 5. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/agecon_present/5
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Beef, Dairy, Equine, Poultry, Hogs, Sheep, and Goats Kenny Burdine and Lee Meyer UK Ag Economics
Agricultural Economics
Overview of Equine Industry Fell
behind poultry in 2009 cash receipts
Will stay there in 2010
T-bred
sales make up nearly ¾ of equine receipts, balance is stud fees Majority of horses used recreationally, fewer dollars, more producers
Still challenges with recreation demand and lack of slaughter market
Agricultural Economics
Racing: Receipts and Sales $6,000,000 $5,000,000
($1,000)
$4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 KY Cash Receipts
Agricultural Economics
Equine Receipts
Poultry
Agricultural Economics
BROILER PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Ready-to-Cook Weight, Monthly Bil. Pounds 3.3 Avg. 2004-08
3.2 3.1 3.0
2009
2.9 2.8 2010
2.7 2.6 JAN
MAR
MAY
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
Agricultural Economics
JUL
SEP
NOV P-S-12 09/27/10
BROILER PRICES 12-City Composite, Weekly Cents Per Pound 93 Avg. 2004-08
88 83
2009 78 73 2010
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC
Agricultural Economics
T O C
L JU
AP R
JA N
68 P-P-01 09/20/10
Broiler Market Summary
Largest gross farm income source in Ky. Ag. Production up 3%, per person consumption continues to increase Exports are very important (about 20% of production) Prices are up, and are expected to be higher again in 2011, averaging in the $.83 - .88 range Profits will be hurt by higher feed costs
Agricultural Economics
Hogs
Agricultural Economics
BARROW AND GILT PRICES Iowa - So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 90 85
Avg. 2004-08
80 75 70 65
2009
60 55 50 2010
45
Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Agricultural Economics
T O C
L JU
AP R
JA N
40
H-P-09 09/20/10
SEPTEMBER 1 ALL HOGS AND PIGS U.S. Inventory (Prior to 1988 Estimated) Mil. Head 72 69 66 63 60 57 54 51 48 45 1984
1987 1990 1993 Livestock Marketing Information Center
1996
Data Source: USDA/NASS
Agricultural Economics
1999
2002
2005
2008 H-N-14 06/25/10
IOWA MARKET HOG PROFIT Farrow/Finish, Monthly $/Head 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40
Latest Data: August 2010
-50 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: Iowa State University
Agricultural Economics
09/17/10
Hog Market Summary Remarkable recovery in prices – up 60% from year ago (Oct.), and 2010 will average 35% higher than 2009; Price gains are from lower production, and stronger demand – at home and exports; Sow numbers down about 2%, but even production for 2011 with better efficiency; Futures markets for 2011 in the $80 to $85 range, about same as 2010 Profits hurt by increasing feeding costs.
Agricultural Economics
Sheep and Goats
Agricultural Economics
SLAUGHTER LAMB PRICES Wooled, 110-130 lbs, Sioux Falls, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 145 Avg. 2004-08
135 125
2009
115 105 95
2010
85 JAN
APR Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC
Agricultural Economics
JUL
OCT S-P-05 09/22/10
Meat Goat Prices New Holland, PA Sel. #2, 40-60 lbs. $ per head 90.00 80.00 70.00 2008 2009 2010
60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00
10.00 0.00 J
F
M
A
M
Agricultural Economics
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Lamb and Goat Summary • Ky sheep numbers down 7% to 37,000 • Lamb prices up about 20% from last year, selling for $1.40 – 1.50/lb. • Ky goat numbers are unchanged at 79,000 • Goat prices up 20%, with Selection #2 40-60 lb. kids selling for $1.35/lb. • Both goat and lamb prices likely to continue at these high levels (stronger economy, weak $ compared to NZ) Agricultural Economics
Dairy
Agricultural Economics
US Milk Production (billion lbs) 50 48 46
2008 2009 2010
44 42 40 1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
Agricultural Economics
3rd Qtr
4th Qtr
BUTTER PRICES US, Weekly $ Per Pound 2.40 Avg. 2004-08
2.20 2.00 1.80
2009
1.60 1.40 2010
1.20
Agricultural Economics
T O C
L JU
AP R
JA N
1.00
US All Milk Price $25
$ per cwt
$20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2004-2008
Agricultural Economics
2009
2010
2010 Dairy Outlook Milk
production likely to increase again
Primarily milk per cow
World
production was down in 2009, good chance for increase in 2010 USDA projecting $17-20 I’m seeing $15-18
Agricultural Economics
Agricultural Economics
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
KY Dairy Cow Inventory
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Beef Cattle
Agricultural Economics
Cattle Market Summary Cattle
numbers low, and likely dropping Weather Large corn crop, but a lot of difficulty getting a feel for size Feedlots saw some black ink this spring
Fed market has improved
Questionable
wheat grazing conditions and expensive wheat
Agricultural Economics
JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual Mil. Head 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
Agricultural Economics
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
Agricultural Economics
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 102 Avg. 2004-08
97 92
2009 87 82
2010
77 JAN
APR
Agricultural Economics
JUL
OCT
Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS
December Corn Futures
Agricultural Economics
Market Expectations
Calves likely have more downside
Heavy feeders
I look for 5wt steers in $90’s by November / December I expect rally into spring, to put calves above $110 again Price slides will tighten with higher corn prices Spring futures hovering around $110 5wt steers average $105 in KY
Spring board upper $110’s, calf prices in midupper $90’s Agricultural Economics
Med / Large Frame #1 Steers 500 to 600 lbs. 120
80 60
2008
Agricultural Economics
1995-2007
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
July
June
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
40
Jan
$ / cwt.
100
2009
Med / Large Frame #1 Steers 700 to 800 lbs. 110
90 80 70
1995-2007
Agricultural Economics
2008
2009
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
July
June
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
60
Jan
$ / cwt.
100
Agricultural Economics
20 08
20 06
20 04
20 02
20 00
19 98
19 96
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
19 94
1,000 tons
KY Hay Production
Wholesale Commodity Feeds (last 36 months) 180 160 140 120 100
SB Hulls
80 60 40
DDG
Agricultural Economics
Se p O ct No v De c
Ju l Au g
Ju n
Ja n Fe b M ar Ap r M ay
20 0
KY Cull Cow Prices Boning 80-85%
Agricultural Economics
Medium / Large Frame #1 Steers 500 to 600 lbs 120 110 100 90 80 70 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr May June July 2005-2009
Agricultural Economics
Aug Sept Oct 1995-2004
Nov Dec
Timing of Post-weaning Sales (2004 to 2009) Wean
530# in October, sell 650# in Dec
$61.72 gross margin to put on 120 lbs must put gain on for $0.51 per lb
From
650# in December to 770# in Feb
$87.87 gross margin to put on 120 lbs Must put gain on for $0.73
(NOTE: This assumes no price premium)
Agricultural Economics
12 /0 3/ 12 0 4 /3 1/ 01 0 4 /2 8/ 02 0 5 /2 5/ 03 0 5 /2 5/ 04 0 5 /2 2/ 05 0 5 /2 0/ 06 0 5 /1 7/ 07 0 5 /1 5/ 08 0 5 /1 2/ 09 0 5 /0 9/ 10 0 5 /0 7/ 05
October 2005-2009
114.00 112.00 110.00 108.00 106.00 104.00 102.00 100.00 98.00 96.00
Agricultural Economics
November CME Group Futures 2005 - 2009
Agricultural Economics
11/3/2005
10/3/2005
9/3/2005
8/3/2005
7/3/2005
6/3/2005
5/3/2005
4/3/2005
3/3/2005
2/3/2005
1/3/2005
12/3/2004
114.00 112.00 110.00 108.00 106.00 104.00 102.00 100.00 98.00 96.00
03 /0 4/ 04 0 5 /0 1/ 04 0 5 /2 9/ 05 0 5 /2 7/ 06 0 5 /2 4/ 07 0 5 /2 2/ 08 0 5 /1 9/ 09 0 5 /1 6/ 10 0 5 /1 4/ 11 0 5 /1 1/ 12 0 5 /0 9/ 01 0 5 /0 6/ 06
January 2006 - 2010
112.00 110.00 108.00 106.00 104.00 102.00 100.00 98.00 96.00 94.00 92.00
Agricultural Economics
Basic Backgrounding Budget (October to March) 550# steers @ $1.07 Hay (12 lbs @ $75 / ton) Hulls / Gluten (7 lbs @ $160) Mineral (.25 lbs at $20 / bag) Vet / Med Interest (6%) Death Loss (2%)
$588.50 $67.50 $84.00 $15.00 $20.00 $19.11 $17.00 $811.11
BE Price = $95 on 850 steers
March / April Futures at $110-112 Agricultural Economics