Market and Technology Trends in the Global Connected/Automated Vehicles Market By Praveen Chandrasekar Consulting Director Frost & Sullivan
August 3rd 2015
ADAS/Automation is the Fastest Growing Segment in the European and US Automotive Market 1
Overall ADAS Market Growth ADAS Market is Expected to Grow in Excess of 25% by 2020, Primarily driven by adoption in C/D vehicle segments and contribution from volume hitters
2
Regulations are Evolving Fast Crash imminent braking and dynamic brake support added to FCW, LDW and RVC to obtain 5 Star Rating 3
Cooperative Driving While a mandate is expected in US by 2015/16 on V2V (cost to OEM), Europe is unveiling its first ITS corridor focused on V2I initially 4
Automation Features are Getting In Besides the obvious OEMS, Tesla is coming out with update 7.0 that will feature L3 at high speeds and L4 at low speeds in private property 5
Low Cost Collision Avoidance Tech is Fast Scaling Up Rear end collisions, Lane keeping and improved pedestrian/night time detection , including low and high speed scenarios
2
By 2028, Frost & Sullivan expects 6.2 million vehicles to have automated features Automated Driving Market: Unit Shipment Forecast, Europe and North America, 2018–2028
7,000,000 Semi-automated
Highly Automated
Fully Automated
Vehicle Unit Shipment
6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Year Source: Frost & Sullivan 3
There are Business and Technology Related Challenges to Solve
Margin Impact
1
As collision avoidance ADAS technologies move into standard fitment space, a high margin optional business will be impacted
Low Cost CMOS Strategy
2
Pureplay CMOS strategy wont work from a redundancy level as the portfolio of ADAS and automation features improve
Addressing Human Factors
3
Handoff is still an extremely tricky situation- drastic differences between L3 and L4. L3 handoffs between driver and vehicle is a big tech challenge
Need to Evolve HMI
4
Need to augment drivers with more layers of useful alerts/information – need for improved HUD systems with AR without increasing complexity
Security
5
Besides the SPYCar act, the industry still needs more than the present band-aid approach to protect V2X channels and the heart of automation
4
LIDAR becomes a crucial part of this puzzle in the longer run With Camera Only- Better object recognition
With Radar Only – Real-time speed measurement With V2X+Camera – All of the above
Offsetting bad weather performance Enhanced Sensor Fusion
Functional Roadmap
LIDAR
Hypothesis generation
5
A lot of Effort is going on at OEMs to get the Technology Mix Right for L3 Automation and Above
Possible models
Functions that require LiDAR
2017
A7, A8, Q8
Traffic Assist, Piloted driving, Piloted Parking
Level 3
2019
7-Series, 5Series
Active Assist, Remote Valet Parking
Laser Scanner
Level 3
2018
CTS, Escalade
SuperCruise
Continental
Fixed Beam
Level 2
2017
Fusion, Escape
Active City Stop
Mercedes Benz
Quanergy (For R&D)
Laser Scanner
Level 3
2019
S-Class, EClass
Distronic Plus with Steer Assist
Volvo
Continental
Fixed Beam
Level 2/3
2016
Across Range
City Safety
Google*
Velodyne (For R&D)
Laser Scanner
Level 5
2021
Self Driving
Autonomous Driving
Supplier Tieup
Type of LIDAR used
Valeo (IBEO)
Laser Scanner
BMW
-Undisclosed-
Laser Scanner
Cadillac
-Undisclosed-
Ford
OEM
Audi
Level of Automation
Level 3
Launch Year
*DISRUPTOR Source: Frost & Sullivan. 6
HERE’s Acquisition by the German Consortium and Plans to Set up a Open Standard will help this Market
HD Maps & Cloud Fully Automated Driving
HERE’s Open Platform
Mobile Edge Computing HERE’s Finland V2V Pilot
Impact on Insurance & Mobility
Interesting Trends Vertical Integration between Tier 1 & 2 Suppliers and Overall Consolidation
Retrofit Automation
5G Introduction by 2022
Cruise Automation RP1
For selective use Cases like L3
7
Insurance - Vehicle- and traffic-related parameters will gain importance, apart from opening up new avenues of risks New-to-bracket parameters relevant to mainly Level 4 Automated Vehicles
Parameters with continued relevance for Level 4 Automated Vehicles Brand
Driving Algorithm
Peer Traffic
Cyber-security vulnerability
Vehicle Size and Usage Control logic robustness
Frequently Used Routes Type of Cover
Desirability, Vehicle age & Value
Occupation Age/Driving Experience
Access security robustness
Recall History Of Vehicle Model Time & Duration Of Journey
Privacy
Average Daily Miles Driven Driving Record
Vehicle Density Residential & Parking Locality
Driver Behaviour
Damage due theft, fire and vandalism Driver Alert / Warning Systems
Claim Frequency Average number of occupants
Parameters not relevant to Level 4 Automated Vehicles High Importance
Medium Importance
Low Importance Source: Frost & Sullivan 8
US Consumers Rate Safety & ADAS Tech More Important than Other Technologies Overall Vehicle Attributes
Important Feature Expectations
Base: All respondents (n=1,584).
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Thank You!
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