Australian sustainable phosphorus futures Phase 1: Analysis of phosphorus flows through the Australian food production and consumption system
AUGUST 2014 RIRDC Publication No. 14/038
Australian sustainable phosphorus futures
Phase 1: Analysis of phosphorus flows through the Australian food production and consumption system by Dr Dana Cordell, Melissa Jackson, Louise Boronyak, Chris Cooper, Dr Steve Mohr, Dustin Moore, Monique Retamal and Professor Stuart White
August 2014 RIRDC Publication No. 14/038 RIRDC Project No. PRJ-008789
© 2014 Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation. All rights reserved.
ISBN 978-1-74254-654-4 ISSN 1440-6845 Australian sustainable phosphorus futures -Phase 1: Analysis of phosphorus flows through the Australian food production and consumption system Publication No. 14/038 Project No. PRJ-008789 The information contained in this publication is intended for general use to assist public knowledge and discussion and to help improve the development of sustainable regions. You must not rely on any information contained in this publication without taking specialist advice relevant to your particular circumstances. While reasonable care has been taken in preparing this publication to ensure that information is true and correct, the Commonwealth of Australia gives no assurance as to the accuracy of any information in this publication. The Commonwealth of Australia, the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation (RIRDC), the authors or contributors expressly disclaim, to the maximum extent permitted by law, all responsibility and liability to any person, arising directly or indirectly from any act or omission, or for any consequences of any such act or omission, made in reliance on the contents of this publication, whether or not caused by any negligence on the part of the Commonwealth of Australia, RIRDC, the authors or contributors. The Commonwealth of Australia does not necessarily endorse the views in this publication. This publication is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, all other rights are reserved. However, wide dissemination is encouraged. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to RIRDC Communications on phone 02 6271 4100. Researcher Contact Details Dr Dana Cordell Level 11 UTS Building 10, 235 Jones Street Ultimo NSW 2007 Email:
[email protected]
In submitting this report, the researcher has agreed to RIRDC publishing this material in its edited form. RIRDC Contact Details Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation Level 2, 15 National Circuit BARTON ACT 2600 PO Box 4776 KINGSTON ACT 2604 Phone: Fax: Email: Web:
(02) 6271 4100 (02) 6271 4199
[email protected]. http://www.rirdc.gov.au
Electronically published by RIRDC in August 2014 Print-on-demand by Union Offset Printing, Canberra at www.rirdc.gov.au or phone 1300 634 313
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Foreword Without adaptation to the way phosphorus is used and managed, global phosphorus scarcity could constrain Australian food production and impact global food security. As an essential nutrient in fertilisers for food production, phosphorus has no substitute. Australia and the world are currently dependent on phosphorus from finite phosphate rock reserves, which are becoming more expensive, scarce, difficult to access and geopolitically concentrated in only a few countries. Limited research to understand and address the regional implications of phosphorus scarcity exists. This report is primarily targeted at research and development organisations, policy-makers and industry groups concerned with sustainable agriculture and food production. Relevant industries include: phosphate mining and fertiliser industries, agricultural industries, food production, processing and distribution industries, wastewater and waste management industries. The analysis found that there are significant losses and inputs of phosphorus to the Australian food system. Despite being a net food exporter feeding approximately 60-70 million people, Australia is a net importer of phosphorus, with a net of 80 kt phosphorus imported into the country each year (mainly via imported fertilisers and phosphate rock). At the same time, Australia has a net phosphorus deficit from the food system of approximately 106 kt phosphorus each year. This is mainly due to fertilisers, agricultural exports (mainly wheat, beef and live animal exports) and losses to the environment (mainly non-agricultural soil, water and landfill). The largest phosphorus-demanding sectors are the livestock sector (via fertilised pastures and feed associated with dairy and beef cattle and broilers) and the agricultural export sector. The food system is also highly inefficient with respect to phosphorus. While some recycling of phosphorus occurs, losses are apparent in all sectors, and as high as 75% of phosphorus lost in the organic waste sector. This analysis is important in identifying intervention points in the system that would increase the resilience, efficiency and ‘closed-loop’ nature of the food system. It also enables individual sectors and associated stakeholders to assess the key sources and fate of phosphorus within their sector for sectorspecific responses. The Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios present a significant opportunity for both understanding future implications of the current business-as-usual trajectory, future possibilities and options, and importantly, provides a tool for visualization-supported deliberation among scientists, policy-makers, industry, the community and other key stakeholders related to different aspects of the phosphorus-food system. This project was funded by RIRDC core funds, in addition to Mercedes-Benz via the 2011 Banksia Mercedes-Benz Environmental Research Award, and in-kind support via a UTS Chancellor’s Postdoctoral Research Fellowship. This report is an addition to RIRDC’s diverse range of over 2000 research publications and it forms part of our National Rural Issues RD&E program, which aims to identify and undertake research to inform national policy development and debate on issues important to rural industries. Most of RIRDC’s publications are available for viewing, free downloading or purchasing online at www.rirdc.gov.au. Purchases can also be made by phoning 1300 634 313.
Craig Burns Managing Director Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation
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About the Author The Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) was established by the University of Technology, Sydney in 1996 to work with industry, government and the community to develop sustainable futures through research and consultancy. Our mission is to create change toward sustainable futures that protect and enhance the environment, human well-being and social equity. We seek to adopt an inter-disciplinary approach to our work and engage our partner organisations in a collaborative process that emphasises strategic decision-making.
Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the members of the National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group for generously offering their time, expertise, discussion and review. This includes: Dr Richard Simpson (CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship), Gerry Gillespie (Zero Waste Australia and NSW Office of Environment and Heritage), Dr Graham Turner (CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems), Dr Rosemary Stanton (public health nutritionist), David Gough (Sydney Water), Dr Michele Barson (Department of Agriculture), Nick Drew (Fertiliser Industry Federation of Australia), Prof Ronnie Harding (Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists and University of NSW), Leesa Carson (Geoscience Australia), Anwen Lovett (Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation), Dr Glen Corder (Sustainable Minerals Institute, UQ) and David Eyre (NSW Farmers Association). The authors would also like to thank Dr Tina Neset from Linköping University, Sweden, and Jonatan Nyberg from InfVis AB, Sweden, for overseeing and building (respectively) the interactive interface for the Global and Australian future scenarios, based on the model developed by ISF. Finally, the authors would like to thank ISF colleagues Dr Tim Prior and Leah Mason for assistance in data collection for the interactive future scenarios.
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Abbreviations For the purpose of this report, the following abbreviations and terms have been used. Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASSF)
The Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF) model, developed by CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems (Turner, 2011), can undertake integrated analyses of the Australian physical economy such as population, land use, water, agriculture, forestry, thereby enabling exploration of future scenarios.
Stock
The accumulation of phosphorus within a given sector, measured as a total mass (kt of P), rather than an annual flux (kt P/a). The annual inputs and outputs to/from a sector contribute to or deplete a stock over a time.
Substance Flow Analysis (SFA)
A methodology for calculating the inputs, outputs and accumulation of a substance (phosphorus in this case) through discrete sectors.
Recovery rate
Capture of used phosphorus from a sector and productive reuse in agriculture.
Permanent loss
Phosphorus lost permanently from the food system (i.e. cannot be captured due to dispersal such as effluent discharges in ocean outfalls).
Temporary loss
Phosphorus lost temporarily from the food system (i.e. while it is present in a waste stream, it can potentially be recovered at a later time, such as phosphorus in phosphogypsum stockpiles).
Input
The annual inflow of phosphorus into a sector, measured in kt P/a.
Output
The annual outflow of phosphorus from a sector, measured in kt P/a.
Phosphogypsum stockpile
The major waste by product generated during phosphorus fertiliser production (when phosphate rock is reacted with sulphuric acid).
GPRI
Global Phosphorus Research Initiative.
Export
The annual flow of phosphorus from Australia, measured in kt P/a.
Import
The annual flow of phosphorus into Australia, measured in kt P/a.
ISF
Institute for Sustainable Futures.
NSPAG
National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group.
kt P/a
Kilotonnes of phosphorus per year.
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Contents Foreword................................................................................................................................................ iii About the Author .................................................................................................................................. iv Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................. iv Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................................... v Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. ix Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1 Objectives ............................................................................................................................................... 2 Project Overview, Structure and Objectives ......................................................................................2 Overview: Australian Phosphorus Stocks and Flows model .......................................................3 Overview: Interactive future phosphorus scenarios .................................................................... 4 Overview: NSPAG ......................................................................................................................4 National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG) ............................................................... 5 Purpose ...............................................................................................................................................5 Participants .........................................................................................................................................5 Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios – v1.0 ................................................................................ 7 Methodology and Assumptions ..........................................................................................................7 Results ................................................................................................................................................7 Australian Phosphorus Flows Model – v1.3 ...................................................................................... 11 Methodology and Assumptions ........................................................................................................11 Results ..............................................................................................................................................12 Overall food system ...................................................................................................................12 Phosphate rock production, imports and exports ....................................................................... 15 Fertiliser production, imports, exports and consumption ..........................................................15 Agriculture crop production, imports, exports and consumption ..............................................16 Livestock production, imports, exports and consumption .........................................................16 Food production, processing, trade and consumption ...............................................................17 Human excreta and wastewater .................................................................................................18 Organic solid waste....................................................................................................................18 Summary ..........................................................................................................................................19 Implications .......................................................................................................................................... 21 Data Availability and Reliability......................................................................................................21 Accumulation and Depletion: Phosphorus Stocks ........................................................................... 22 Temporal Variability: Static Model and Baseline Year ................................................................... 23 Spatial Variability: Geospatial Distribution and Landuse................................................................24 Phosphorus Losses and Recycling Rates .........................................................................................25 Interactive Future Scenarios: Assumptions, Interface and Linkages with Other Resources ........... 25 Future of NSPAG .............................................................................................................................26
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Recommendations ................................................................................................................................ 28 Appendices ............................................................................................................................................ 30 A1: Phase 1 Project Team and Roles ...............................................................................................31 A2: National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG) ......................................................32 A3: v1.3 Australian Phosphorus Flows Model (Excel).................................................................... 35 A4: Classification of Phosphorus Flows ..........................................................................................36 A5: Net Phosphorus Inputs and Outputs in Australia and the Australian Food System ..................41 A6: Sustainable Phosphorus Measures by Sector ............................................................................42 References ............................................................................................................................................. 46
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Tables Table 1:
Key tasks and outputs of the Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures project. ........................... 3
Table 2:
Summary of losses and recovery rates of phosphorus for each key sector (in absolute and percentage terms). ............................................................................................................................ 20
Table 3:
Status of data quality for data inputs into the Australian Phosphorus Flows Model.. ..................... 21
Table A4-1: Classification, description and value of phosphorus in key sectors within the Australian food system (corresponding to v1.3 model). ............................................................................................ 36 Table A4-2: Classification and value of phosphorus flows between sectors in the Australian food system (corresponding to v1.3 model). For description see corresponding sector code in Table A4-1. ..... 39 Table A5-1: Phosphorus imports and outputs in Australia................................................................................... 41 Table A5-2: Phosphorus inputs and outputs in the Australia food system ........................................................... 41
Figures Figure I-A: Phosphorus flows through the Australian food system (units are in kt P/a). ..................................... x Figure 1:
Timeline indicating connection between Phase 1 of the current sustainable phosphorus project and past related projects. ..................................................................................................................... 2
Figure 2:
Participants of the National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG), March, 2012. .......... 6
Figure 3:
Preferred global phosphorus scenario for meeting long-term global food demand (Cordell et al, 2009b). ........................................................................................................................................... 7
Figure 4:
Snapshot from the v1.0 Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios for the Australian Food System.. 8
Figure 5:
Snapshot from the v1.0 Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios for the Global Food System.. ...... 9
Figure 6:
Australia is a net importer of phosphorus at the national scale (80 kt P/a), and simultaneously has a net deficit of phosphorus from the food system (106 kt P/a). .................................................. 12
Figure 7:
Australian Phosphorus Flows Model (v1.3) indicating the major phosphorus flows into, out from and within the Australian food system. .................................................................................... 14
Figure 8:
Phosphate rock: inputs, outputs and net balance. ............................................................................. 15
Figure 9:
Fertiliser: inputs, outputs and net balance. ....................................................................................... 15
Figure 10:
Agriculture (cropping systems): inputs, outputs and net balance. ................................................... 16
Figure 11:
Livestock (pasture-based and feedlots): inputs, outputs and net balance. ....................................... 17
Figure 12:
Food production: inputs, outputs and net balance. ........................................................................... 17
Figure 13:
Detailed phosphorus flows into, through and from the wastewater treatment process. ................... 18
Figure 14:
Wastewater: inputs, outputs and fate. .............................................................................................. 18
Figure 15:
Organic waste: generation and fate. ................................................................................................. 19
Figure A2-1: Timeline indicating connection between current sustainable phosphorus project and past related projects. ................................................................................................................................ 32 Figure A6-1. Measures to increase phosphorus use efficiency in agriculture – interventions in fertiliser selection and use, soil management and plant management. ........................................................... 43
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Executive Summary What is the report about? This project investigates how Australia can manage phosphorus to ensure long-term food security, soil fertility and environmental protection. The intended outcome is to deliver sustainable adaptation strategies across a range of scenarios to increase the resilience of the Australian food system. An Australian phosphorus stocks and flows model, quantified and costed sustainable phosphorus measures and interactive future phosphorus scenarios, will enable stakeholders to identify policy implications and make informed policy decisions. This report presents the findings from Phase 1 of this project, Analysis of phosphorus flows through the Australian food production and consumption system. That is, v1.3 of the Australian Phosphorus Flows Model, v1.0 of the Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios and the formation of the National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG). Who is the report targeted at? This report is primarily targeted at research and development organisations, policy-makers and industry groups concerned with sustainable agriculture and food production. Where are the relevant industries located in Australia? This research was conducted at the national scale, and hence is relevant to all geographical areas. It is relevant to all industries related to the direct or indirect use of phosphorus in the food production and consumption system in Australia. This includes (but is not limited to): phosphate mining and fertiliser industries, agriculture industry, food production, processing and distribution industries, wastewater and waste management industries. Background Impending global phosphorus scarcity will compromise the resilience of Australian food production and global food security if no changes to the way we currently use and manage phosphorus are made. As an essential nutrient in fertilisers for food production, phosphorus has no substitute. Australia and the world are currently dependent on phosphorus from finite phosphate rock reserves, which are becoming more expensive, scarce, difficult to access and geopolitically concentrated in only a few countries. Yet research addressing the serious regional implications of phosphorus scarcity is lacking. Aims/objectives The overall objectives of the three-year project were to: 1. Analyse the phosphorus stocks and flows through the Australian food system (from mine to field to fork and losses to the environment); 2. Identify sustainable pathways for Australia to secure phosphorus for agriculture and food production in the long-term; and 3. Inform policy, through collaborative development of probable, possible and preferred future scenarios. The specific objectives of Phase 1 include: •
Develop v1.3 Phosphorus Flows Model, building on previous iterations (note this phase 1 excludes ‘stocks’);
•
Develop a framework for interactive future phosphorus scenarios;
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•
Establish the National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG) and hold first meeting to review above deliverables.
Methods used The main method employed in this project is substance flow analysis (SFA). This quantitative method allows the annual inputs, outputs and accumulation of phosphorus between major sectors in the food production-consumption system to be calculated. Major losses, recycling, imports/exports are also identified and calculated where possible. Results/key findings Australian Phosphorus Flow Analysis v1.3 Australian Phosphorus Flows Model v1.3 (see figure 1-A) indicates the major phosphorus inputs, outputs and internal flows of phosphorus through the Australian food system for 2007. The Australian food system is far from sustainable with respect to phosphorus. Despite being a net food exporter feeding approximately 60-70 million people- Australia is a net importer of phosphorus, with a net of 80 kt P imported into the country each year. Approximately 214 kt P/a is imported into the country via imported fertilisers and phosphate rock, while approximately 134 kt P/a is exported via fertiliser and food exports. At the same time, Australia has a net phosphorus deficit from the food system of approximately 106 kt P each year (see figure 1-A). While the productivity of the Australian food system is heavily dependent on substantial phosphorus inputs (215 kt P/a) in the form of phosphate rock and phosphate fertilisers, even larger phosphorus outputs (321 kt P/a) leave the Australian food system in the form of: fertilisers, agricultural exports (mainly wheat, beef and live animal exports) and losses to the environment (mainly non-agricultural soil, water and landfill). The largest phosphorus-demanding sectors are the livestock sector (via fertilised pastures and feed associated with dairy and beef cattle and broilers) and the agricultural export sector.
Figure I-A:
Phosphorus flows through the Australian food system (units are in kt P/a).
The food system is also highly inefficient with respect to phosphorus: losses are apparent in all sectors, and as high as 75% of phosphorus lost in the organic waste sector. In absolute terms (kt P/a) the
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greatest losses occur in the form of permanent losses from agriculture and livestock transported via soil and manure respectively, and the temporary loss in phosphogypsum stockpiles associated with fertiliser production. Recovery rates of phosphorus also vary from sector to sector, with the greatest recycling of phosphorus for productive reuse in agriculture occurring in the livestock sector (40%) via manure reuse. This analysis is important in identifying intervention points in the system that would increase the resilience, efficiency and ‘closed-loop’ nature of the food system. It also enables individual sectors and associated stakeholders to assess the key sources and fate of phosphorus within their sector for sectorspecific responses. The individual numbers should be taken with some degree of caution due to low data quality. Data was particularly poor or absent in the case of: P in mining waste, phosphate rock production and reserves on Christmas Island; changes in %P in fertilisers applied to crop versus pasture systems; %P lost from pastures as crop systems; P inputs into aquaculture; P in manure which is reused productively in agriculture; P content of live animals; P content of abattoir waste and the proportion that is recycled as blood and bone fertiliser. Phosphorus ‘stocks’ (that is, phosphorus accumulated within sectors over time) were not calculated in Phase 1 due to lack of access to sufficient time-series data. While the fertiliser, food production and wastewater sectors are likely to have negligible stocks, other sectors will have significant stocks. For example, the mining sector has a stock of phosphate rock reserves, which is currently being depleted at an annual rate of 352 kt P/a; the agricultural sector has soil stock which is currently accumulating at a rate of 77 kt P annually; and the livestock sector has an accumulation of P in manure, currently at a rate of 635 kt P each year. While the year 2007 was select as the static model year due to highest data availability, there are drawbacks associated with using this reference year. For example, significant annual variations can occur, particularly within the fertiliser and agricultural sectors. 2007 was indeed a drought year for example. The model was structured so that a range of years (2006-2010) can ultimately be populated, however data was not available for all years to undertake this in Phase 1. Phosphorus was modelled in terms of national averages, however in reality the Australian food system can also vary geospatially. For example, soil can have a phosphorus accumulation in some areas, and a deficit in other areas. Around 90% of the phosphorus associated with human excreta is concentrated in the wastewater system of coastal cities. This spatiality is also important in terms of logistics and energy required to transport phosphorus between sectors. Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios v1.0 The Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios v1.0 present a significant opportunity for both understanding future implications of the current business-as-usual trajectory, and future possibilities and options. Importantly, the Scenarios provides a tool for visualization-supported deliberation among scientists, policy-makers, industry, the community and other key stakeholders related to different aspects of the phosphorus-food system. Version 1.0 presents an excellent basis for this, however current limitations associated with poor quality of input data, limited interactivity with respect to feedback and lack of linkages to other resources, should be addressed before stakeholders can engage with the scenarios in a meaningful way. National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG) NSPAG was officially launched at the inaugural meeting during the Sustainable Phosphorus Summit in Sydney, February 2012. The members of NSPAG are representatives of key stakeholder groups and sectors related to phosphorus in the food system (from the mineral resources, fertiliser, agricultural,
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livestock, food nutrition, natural resources, organic waste, sustainability and wastewater sectors). Members reviewed and discussed the draft Australian Phosphorus Flows Model v1.3, the potential of the Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios and agreed on the Terms of Reference for the NSPAG. The Australian Phosphorus Flows Model v1.3 and findings presented in this report have been reviewed by NSPAG. Implications for relevant stakeholders It is import to have a robust Phosphorus Stocks and Flows Model of sufficient quality as a basis for systematically investigating the feasible and sustainable future scenarios. Such research (in particular the interactive scenarios) can facilitate stakeholder engagement and awareness-raising of the key issues around phosphorus sustainability in Australia (including implications of global drivers) and how they relate to each sector (from mining to wastewater). Engagement and awareness-raising can occur through stakeholder interaction with the research findings and tools (for example through NSPAG; Recommendation 7) combined with stakeholder deliberation and input via expert views. This informed awareness and deliberation can lead to informed policy advice and concrete actions to achieve a sustainable future phosphorus pathway for the Australian food system. In order for this to be achieved, investment in future research is required to improve data quality, the interactive tool, and identify sustainability measures and their cost and policy implications. Hence a first priority is further funding from existing and future government, industry and scientific partners. Recommendations In light of the findings from the analyses undertaken in Phase 1, the following seven research recommendations are made to further the objectives of the three year Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures project. Recommendations 1-5 relate to the Australian Phosphorus Flows Analysis v1.3, Recommendation 6 relates to the Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios, and Recommendation 7 relates to NSPAG. Recommendation 1 (data quality): •
Collect and analyse priority data, that is, data that is currently absent or poor/questionable and of significance (as expressed in Table 3).
Recommendation 2 (stocks, accumulation and depletion): For key sectors where stocks are known to be significant in terms of magnitude or importance, including mining, agriculture, livestock and wastewater: •
Identify potential data sources related to the stock;
•
Develop appropriate method for calculating stock (taking into account available data, start/end years and annual accumulation/depletion rates, including annual variance); and
•
Calculate stocks for these key sectors.
Recommendation 3 (temporal variability): •
Consider populating the model for a range of years (i.e. seek, extrapolate or interpolate data for years 2006-2010) so that different static years could be modelled to explore the variability/sensitivity in resulting flows; and
•
Explore potential to link to the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (and hence the link to other resources/drivers).
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Recommendation 4 (spatial variability): •
Separate agriculture and livestock each into at least three key land-use types, consistent with the interactive future scenarios;
•
Develop a framework for a geospatial model of Australia indicating phosphorus hotspots from: urban areas, ‘sinks’ such as landfills, water pollution and ‘sources’ such as phosphate rock mines, different phosphorus status of soils, phosphorus associated with different land-use systems and the feasibility of transporting virgin and recycled phosphorus (from an energy and cost perspective).
Recommendation 5 (Phosphorus losses and recycling rates): •
Recalculate waste streams (losses) and recycling (recovery) in table 3 based on revised data (Recommendation 1).
•
Categorise waste streams according to typology of phosphorus losses (Schröder et al (2010, p.33)
•
For significant waste streams, identify most effective intervention points in the system and determine feasibility of improving efficiency to reduce losses versus improving recycling and associated potential sustainability measures (see White et al, 2010).
Recommendation 6 (Interactive future phosphorus scenarios): •
Improve/refine the quality of input data which is locked, particularly for land area;
•
Have input data and locked assumptions verified by NSPAG and/or other relevant experts related to the specific areas;
•
Add textual feedback (such as description of user input assumptions, implications of gap);
•
Allow user-acceptance testing of the tool, in terms of usability, reliability, perception, relevance and appropriateness;
•
Consider further developing scenarios through stakeholder consultation that incorporates the complexities of the Australian food system through a futures forum/workshop;
•
Analyse inter-linkages between phosphorus and other sectors/resources and incorporate these into future version of model;
•
Explore the potential to link to the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework;
Recommendation 7 (NSPAG): •
Continue NSPAG as per Terms of Reference.
•
Seek further members as needed/identified to fill gaps in expertise.
Strategic directions and next steps In summary, research, communication and policy actions that can facilitate change towards sustainable phosphorus futures within this three year project are identified as: •
Secure funding for next phase of the research from existing and new partners (from policy, industry, scientific community);
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•
Create an ‘Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures’ public webpage within the GPRI website (www.phosphorusfutures.net) to communicate all key Australian phosphorus research and policy outputs to-date;
•
Engage key stakeholders via a policy forum to raise the profile of the issue among policy-makers and support the development of policies and initiatives to improve phosphorus use;
•
Undertake improvements to the Australian Phosphorus Flows Model, especially those that further the development of the interactive scenarios (outlined in Recommendations 1-5);
•
Undertake improvements to the Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios (outlined in Recommendation 6);
•
Continue NSPAG as per the Terms of Reference (see Recommendation 7);
•
Engage stakeholders via participatory development of future scenarios and community/farmer engagement (as per workshop outlined in Tasks 4 and 5 in table 1);
•
Undertake analysis of phosphorus supply and demand-side initiatives in terms of quantity, associated costs and policy implications (as per Tasks 3 and 6 as outlined in table 1).
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Introduction Global phosphorus scarcity is likely to threaten Australia and the world’s ability to produce food in the future if concerted efforts to use phosphorus more sustainably are not taken by policy makers, scientists, industry and the community today. While phosphorus is an essential element for crop growth in the form of fertilisers, the world’s main source of phosphorus (mined phosphate rock) is becoming increasingly scarce and expensive. Peak phosphorus is predicted to occur this century, possibly within 30 years, yet there is no substitute for phosphorus in food production. Historically there has been little awareness, research and policy debate on global phosphorus scarcity. However the 800% phosphate price spike in 2008 drew the world’s attention to the long-term phosphorus security issue (Cordell et al, 2009a; Nature, 2009; Bekunda et al, 2011). Australia has naturally phosphorus deficient soils and a substantial dependence on imported sources of phosphorus to maintain agricultural productivity. This means food production and its value as an export industry for Australia will inevitably be threatened by declining availability of phosphorus. Preliminary analyses in Australia suggests that even if Australia recovered 100% of phosphorus in human excreta for reuse as fertiliser, this would only represent around 2-3% of Australia’s current total demand for phosphorus fertiliser (Cordell and White, 2010). Phosphorus is not only exported off our shores in food exports, it is also lost at all key stages in the food production and consumption system, such as in agricultural soils, food processing waste and household bins. Sustainable phosphorus use means using phosphorus more efficiently, reducing phosphorus demand, closing the loop on waste and developing renewable phosphorus fertilisers to diversify sources and supplement phosphate rock-based fertilisers. Achieving phosphorus security in Australia (and globally) is likely to require an integrated approach that recycles phosphorus from all sources and sectors of the food system (ranging from manure and excreta to food waste and crop residues), and, finds innovative ways to substantially reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus. Through wide ranging measures such as phosphorus use efficiency in agriculture, changing diets and reducing food waste in supermarket and household bins. Developing and implementing such practical solutions to meeting the world’s long-term future phosphorus demand will involve substantial technical, institutional and social changes (Cordell et al, 2009b; Schroder et al, 2011; Cordell et al, 2011). Unlike other important resources for sustainable food systems and ecosystem functioning, such as carbon, water, land, there has been relatively little research on phosphorus at the national or international scale (Bekunda et al 2011; Cordell, 2010).
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Objectives Project Overview, Structure and Objectives The Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures project aims to increase scientific knowledge on a range of issues relating to sustainable phosphorus use in Australia and will run over a period of three years, building on previous recent research (figure 1). This report documents outcomes from Phase 1: Analysis of Phosphorus flows through the Australian food production and consumption system. Phase 1 has been undertaken with funding assistance from Rural Industries Research Development Corporation and Mercedes-Benz1. Figure 1 indicates previous research that this project builds on, in addition to locating Phase 1 in the project life cycle. Put peak P on agenda; Implications of peak 2008 National P for Australia stakeholder workshop
DCordell PhD thesis
2007 Figure 1:
CSIRO collaborative project
2010
Oz P flows model v1.3; NSPAG; Framework for interactive scenarios v1.0
2011
PHASE 1
P stocks and flows model (V2), collaborative long-term scenarios, sustainable strategies and technologies for Australia to secure phosphorus
AUSTRALIAN SUSTAINABLE PHOSPHORUS FUTURES PROJECT
2012
2013
2014
Timeline indicating connection between Phase 1 of the current sustainable phosphorus 2 project and past related projects.
The overall objectives of the three year project are to: •
Analyse the phosphorus stocks and flows through the Australian food system (from mine to field to fork and losses to the environment);
•
Identify sustainable pathways for Australia to secure phosphorus for agriculture and food production in the long-term; and
•
Inform policy, through collaborative development of probable, possible and preferred future scenarios.
The specific objectives of Phase 1 include: •
Develop v1.3 Phosphorus Flows Model, building on previous iterations (note this phase 1 excludes ‘stocks’);
1
Via the 2011 Mercedes-Benz Banksia Environmental Research Award.
2
2007-10: Doctoral research by Dr Cordell on the implications of phosphorus scarcity for food security globally and in Australia; 2008: National Workshop on the Future of Phosphorus – high-level stakeholder workshop to share perspectives, key challenges and generate a shared vision; 2010: Preliminary research on Securing a sustainable phosphorus future for Australia (collaborative project with CSIRO) – refining the implications of and responses to phosphorus scarcity for Australia.
2
•
Develop a framework for interactive future phosphorus scenarios;
•
Establish the National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG) and hold its first meeting to review the above deliverables.
The tasks, outputs and deliverables are summarised in Table 1. The project team and roles are indicated in Appendix A1. Table 1:
Key tasks and outputs of the Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures project (bold indicates those items undertaken during Phase 1 and documented in this report).
TASK
OUTPUTS & DELIVERABLES
1. Form National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group
Strategic guidance throughout project and create a stakeholder specific implementation plan P stocks and flows model, report, presentation and media Toolbox of demand-side and supply-side measures for meeting future food-related phosphorus demand, report, presentation and media Interactive business-as-usual and preferred long-term future scenarios, interactive workshop, website, report, presentation and media Community and farmer preferences and the implications for options Costed and prioritised options, report and presentation Targeted stakeholder resource materials, launch and media
2. Analysis of P flows through food production and consumption systems 3. Analysis of phosphorus supply and demandside initiatives 4. Participatory development of future phosphorus scenarios model 5. Community and farmer engagement 6. Analysis of costs and policy implications 7. Report writing and resource material preparation
Overview: Australian Phosphorus Stocks and Flows model The Australian Phosphorus Stocks and Flows model builds on previous preliminary estimates of phosphorus flows through the Australian food system undertaken as part of doctoral research (Cordell, 2010) and the desktop review of sustainable phosphorus use funded by the CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship and undertaken by ISF and other research partners (Cordell and White, 2010). Preliminary analysis (Cordell et al 2009b; Cordell and White, 2010) indicates that while an integrated approach of supply and demand-side measures may be required there is little baseline data on phosphorus in the Australian food system. Further analysis is needed to determine the distribution of organic sources of phosphorus from manure, excreta and food waste. Calculating the phosphorus budget will allow scientists and policy-makers to quantify the contribution of different technologies and strategies to increase the efficiency of phosphorus use (from mining to food processing) or the potential for phosphorus recovery and reuse (from organic sources). Phase 1 developed v1.3 of the model (see Section 4). Overall objectives of a phosphorus stocks and flows model3 include: •
Identify the major phosphorus flows into, through, and out of the food production-consumption system;
•
Identify the major stocks within key sectors;
3
This refers to the overall three year project, not Phase 1.
3
•
Identify the major phosphorus losses/waste streams within and exported from the food system;
•
Determine which phosphorus losses/waste stream flows can be avoided or reduced through demand management measures;
•
Determine which unavoidable phosphorus waste streams can be recovered and reused productively as fertiliser;
•
Identify key data gaps for further research.
Overview: Interactive future phosphorus scenarios Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios will be developed with key stakeholders to determine priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or alternative renewable fertilisers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste. Sustainable phosphorus options will also need to take into account trade-offs and other pertinent challenges, such as climate change, water scarcity, life-cycle energy costs, land-use changes, environmental damage and other resource use. This project will address how global trends, drivers and challenges are likely to affect the Australian phosphorus situation, and conversely how different future Australian pathways are likely to affect global and regional contexts. Identifying both the barriers and opportunities and determining the cost-effectiveness of preferred options will also be investigated. Phase 1 developed a framework for Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios for Australia (and the world) (see section 3). Overall objectives of the interactive future phosphorus scenarios4 are: •
To develop a support-tool for integrated long-term phosphorus use scenarios for meeting future food demand based on least cost options to the economy, environment and society;
•
Allow stakeholders/users to input their own assumptions and test different scenarios (the future is uncertain, data is poor);
•
To allow for interactive feedback (e.g. consequences of input assumptions).
Overview: NSPAG An interdisciplinary and sustainability research project requires multi-sector involvement to increase legitimacy of the outcomes and ensure their implementation. Key stakeholders will therefore be involved though a high-level ‘National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group’, to provide strategic guidance, inform key challenges and opportunities, prioritise science and policy options, and implement recommendations. Key findings and recommendations will be communicated to target stakeholder groups, including policy-makers, the food and agriculture sector, fertiliser industry, sanitation sector and the public. Phase 1 developed and launched NSPAG including its first meeting (see section 2).
4
This refers to the overall three year project, not Phase 1.
4
National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG) The National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG) was established as part of Phase 1 of this project.
Purpose The roles and responsibilities of members of the NSPAG include: •
High level advice on various aspects of the project including scope, design and outputs (such as reports),
•
Identification of data sources and facilitation of data access for the project team,
•
Informing NSPAG of relevant new research findings or events that may impact on the project,
•
Identification of potential stakeholders to participate in research workshops,
•
Assisting with communication and distribution of research and policy findings to target audiences where appropriate,
•
Advising project team of unavailability with advance notice if unable to remain an NSPAG member, and recommending a replacement.
The NSPAG was officially launched on 29th February 2012 at the inaugural NSPAG meeting during the Sustainable Phosphorus Summit5 in Sydney. At this meeting, members reviewed and discussed the draft Australian Phosphorus Flows Model v1.3, discussed the possibilities of the Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios and agreed on the Terms of Reference for the NSPAG (see Appendix A2). More specifically, the objectives of the first NSPAG meeting were to: •
Micro-level: review key data and assumptions with current low reliability or data gaps
•
Medium-level: identify which stocks and flows are priorities for further data collection
•
High-level: determine future directions e.g. focus on improved stocks and flows model or focus on improved future scenarios development
The outputs and feedback from the first NSPAG meeting have been incorporated into the Australian Phosphorus Flows Model v1.3 and this report.
Participants The members of NSPAG are representatives of key stakeholder groups and sectors related to phosphorus in the food system. The members are spread across all sectors – the science, government, industry and community sector; and across all stages of the food production and consumption chain including: the mining and fertiliser industry, agriculture and food production/processing and trade, food consumption and diets, water and sanitation, environmental protection, and solid waste management (figure 2).
5
http://sustainablepsummit.net/
5
Figure 2:
Participants of the National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG), March, 2012.
6
Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios – v1.0 The initial framework for the scenarios was developed as part of Phase 1 in collaboration with Swedish colleagues.
Methodology and Assumptions The objectives of version 1.0 of the Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios were to: •
Build a future scenario model in excel, with key fixed years as 2007, 2040, 2070 (ISF);
•
Populate with baseline data and key assumptions (ISF and Linköping University, Sweden);
•
Create interactive web-based visualization interface (InfVis AB, Sweden and Linköping University);
•
Evaluate the model and interactive visualization tool with researchers and stakeholders (ISF and Linköping University, Sweden);
•
Allow users to engage with assumptions, including NSPAG (ISF).
Results The Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios v1.0 were developed both for Australian and global contexts. The global model used the preferred future scenarios developed by Cordell et al (2009b) (figure 3) as a basis and added further detail by including more assumptions, building in interactivity, and including land area for different agriculture land use types as a central function.
Figure 3:
Preferred global phosphorus scenario for meeting long-term global food demand (Cordell et al, 2009b).
7
For the Australian model, it was not possible to simply scale down the global model to the national level. This is firstly because there is an absolute population in the global model, and an absolute amount of phosphate rock and other resources. In the national model, decisions can be made regarding the population fed (for example, Australia currently feeds 60-70 million people), and domestic production of phosphate versus imports. The Australian model was therefore built based on domestic land use, land availability and domestic phosphate sources (phosphate rock, manure, crop residues etc). Population that can be fed becomes an output rather than input assumption (the latter is the case for the global model). Unlike the Australian Phosphorus Flows Model, which takes averages across agricultural and livestock sectors, the interactive future scenarios model breaks agriculture down into the farming categories of horticulture, broadacre and ‘future compact farming’. These have different characteristics with respect to phosphorus, in terms of fertiliser inputs and productivity expressed per unit of land area. ‘Future compact farming’ refers to any efficient, sustainable crop or food production system that has a high productivity per unit of land. One current example includes ‘Quorn’6, a high-protein, meat-free, soy-free product specifically developed in response to pressures on the global food system to meet future food demand. Similarly, livestock has been broken down into three production categories: pastures (fertilised), remote cattle stations7 (unfertilised) and feedlots (grain and supplement-fed). Each have specific phosphorus inputs and productivity levels expressed per unit of land area.
Figure 4:
Snapshot from the v1.0 Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios for the Australian Food System. Developed by Institute for Sustainable Futures, Linköping University, Sweden and visualisation interface by Infviz AB.
6
http://www.quorn.com.au/The-Quorn-Story/
7
That is, northern grazing systems.
8
Figure 5:
Snapshot from the v1.0 Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios for the Global Food System. Developed by Institute for Sustainable Futures, Linköping University, Sweden and visualisation interface by Infviz AB.
The visual interface for both the Australian model (figure 4) and global model (figure 5) were designed to be highly interactive and user friendly, with the following key features: •
Blue graph (left side) - The blue graph on the left indicates the future supply of phosphorus from all sources - phosphate rock, manure, human excreta, crop residues, food waste, and supply-chain waste (only domestic supply is included for the Australian model). The single dotted line in the Australian model (figure 4) indicates the future demand that needs to be met (according to the orange graph to the right). The multiple dotted lines in the global model (figure 5) indicate the future demand associated with choices in sustainability assumptions and possible demand
9
reductions, with the thick dotted line representing the demand that must be met by multiple supply sources after efficiency measures have been implemented. •
Orange graph (right side) – The orange graph on the right indicates the future demand of phosphorus, determined by the phosphorus requirements from different agricultural and livestock land-uses (expressed as fertiliser, feed or additives demand). The user can chose the relative breakdown of different land-uses, however the demand per hectare for each land-use category is fixed. The dotted line represents the future available supply according to the blue graph.
•
User input assumptions – the input assumptions with higher associated uncertainty and/or controversy were included as slide bars below the graph, enabling users to choose their own assumptions. Such assumptions range from future population to future phosphate rock reserves. Upper and lower limits to the slide bar were set based on ranges found in the literature, or official statistics or as qualified assumptions where no ranges were found.
•
Locked assumptions – for reasons of practicality and usability, assumptions with less uncertainty and controversy were locked and are included in the ‘behind the scenes’ of the model. These were typically related to current data rather than future trends. The most important of these were land area associated with different agricultural and livestock types which was estimated and included in locked assumptions.
•
Future timeline – a future timeline out to 2070 was selected. The two future discrete points were selected as 2040 and 2070. They were seen as sufficiently far in the future to allow for substantial changes and innovations (and to explore the possibility of peak phosphorus which is anticipated before 2070), yet not too far that it was too unrealistic or abstract for users to engage with the scenarios. The global and Australian models were set at the same dates to allow global and regional models to be linked in future iterations of the model.
•
Population that can be fed – for the Australian model, this is an extra output visible in the bottom right corner. This implies the number of people that the Australian food production system can feed, based on the selected assumptions. For example, changes using the slide bar in dietary preferences towards less meat-based foods (which require more phosphorus to produce) will not result in absolute reductions in phosphorus demand (as is the case with the global model), rather, it will result in enabling Australia to feed more people.
•
The ‘gap’ – the gap between demand and supply (in the blue graph) indicates the deficit in meeting future food demand. The user then has the option to revisit the choice of input assumptions to close the gap.
10
Australian Phosphorus Flows Model – v1.3 Methodology and Assumptions The Australian Phosphorus Flows Model (v1.3), developed during Phase 1 of this project, shows the current flows of phosphorus through the Australian food system (see Cordell et al, 2013 and Appendix A3). Quantification of the inputs and outputs (in kilotonnes of phosphorus per year) between key sectors (from mining to agriculture to consumption) can ultimately aid the identification of current inefficiencies, potential points for recovery, reduction in losses and facilitate prioritisation of policy measures (Brunner 2010; Cordell et al, 2012; Pellerin, 2011). The excel model (Appendix A3) provides a flexible and accessible structure that allows data to be updated easily as improved data becomes available. Further, the model provides a clear and accessible interface to increase usability. Each tab in the model represents a key sector: •
Phosphate rock
•
Fertilisers
•
Agriculture (crop systems)
•
Livestock (pastures and feedlots)
•
Food production
•
Wastewater
•
Organic waste
Each key sector is analysed on a separate tab in the spreadsheet containing: •
Quantified input and output diagram
•
Raw data for each inflow and outflow including the net balance
•
Calculations, linked cells
•
Coded and labelled phosphorus flows
•
Data assumptions (qualitative and quantitative)
•
Conversions
•
Full references
Key data assumptions included: •
Baseline year was 2007;
•
The phosphorus content in the production, consumption, excretion and trade of fertilisers and food are indicated in kilotonnes of phosphorus per year;
•
Phosphorus flows associated with food have been prioritised over those that fall outside of the food system;
11
•
Grey shaded boxes and flows implies no data exists or data has not been found;
•
Net balances ≠ 0 are due to either poor quality of baseline data, assumptions or are phosphorus stockpiles.
Results The results from the Australian Phosphorus Flows Model v1.3 are summarised in figure 78. This highlights the major phosphorus inputs, outputs and internal flows (black arrows) within the Australian food system (bounded by the red dotted line), and, within the country (bounded by the pink shaded box). The full model (including assumptions, calculations and references) are included in Appendix A3 the excel-based model, Appendix A4 Classification of phosphorus flows and Appendix A5 Net phosphorus inputs and outputs in Australia and the Australian food system. The text and figures below summarise some of the key findings.
Overall food system Australia is a net food exporter, feeding approximately 60-70 million people. Despite this, Australia is a net importer of phosphorus, with a net of 80 kt P imported into the country each year (see figure 6). Approximately 214 kt P/a are imported into the country via imported fertilisers and phosphate rock, while approximately 134 kt P/a are exported via fertiliser and food exports. At the same time, Australia has a net phosphorus deficit from the food system of approximately 106 kt P each year (see figure 6). While the productivity of the Australian food system is heavily dependent on substantial phosphorus inputs (215 kt P/a) in the form of phosphate rock and phosphate fertiliser imports9, even larger phosphorus outputs (321 kt P/a) leave the Australian food system in the form of: fertilisers, agricultural exports (mainly wheat, beef and live animal exports) and losses to the environment (mainly non-agricultural soil, water and landfill). The largest phosphorus-demanding sectors are the livestock sector (via fertilised pastures and feed associated with dairy and beef cattle and broilers) and the agricultural export sector.
Figure 6:
Australia is a net importer of phosphorus at the national scale (80 kt P/a), and simultaneously has a net deficit of phosphorus from the food system (106 kt P/a).
Small amounts of phosphorus are recirculated within the food system (such as organic waste from food processing and consumption and biosolids from the wastewater sector), however overall there are substantial losses and inefficiencies within the food system with respect to phosphorus (see section 4.3).
8
v1.2 results are described in detail in Cordell and White (2010) and White et al (2010).
9
Domestic phosphate rock production is included in the food system, because this is essentially represents Australia’s phosphate mine at Phosphate Hill, owned by fertiliser company Incitec Pivot Ltd and operated for the purpose of producing fertilisers for agricultural use.
12
The following sub-sections provide sector-specific findings. Greater detail is available in the model itself and reports/articles pertaining to previous versions (1.1 and 1.2) of the model (see Cordell, 2010; Cordell and White 2010; White et al 2010). The intention of this report is to build upon and not duplicate the text and analysis provided in earlier work.
13
Figure 7:
Australian Phosphorus Flows Model (v1.3) indicating the major phosphorus flows into, out from and within the Australian food system. Units are in kilotonnes of phosphorus per year (kt of P/a) for the baseline year 2007.
14
Phosphate rock production, imports and exports Australia mines phosphate rock domestically at Phosphate Hill in Queensland (owned by Incitec Pivot Limited) for fertiliser production (approx. 288 kt P/a), and supplements this with phosphate rock imports (predominantly from Morocco/Western Sahara) amounting to approximately 64 kt P/a (figure 8). All of this phosphate rock is currently consumed domestically, with the largest share (80%) used for fertiliser production. Smaller amounts are used for industrial purposes (such as detergents, fire retardants, matches and medicines), livestock feed additives and food additives.
Figure 8:
Phosphate rock: inputs, outputs and net balance.
Data availability on tonnages of phosphate rock (and fertiliser) trade is generally available however phosphorus content (%P) of phosphate rock traded is often not reported hence assumptions of grade are made. Further, specific data on phosphorus used for non-fertiliser applications is difficult to ascertain. Data on phosphorus content of mining waste is also difficult to access and hence was estimated.
Fertiliser production, imports, exports and consumption Phosphorus fertilisers applied to Australian soils come from both domestically produced10 (256 kt P/a) and imported phosphate11 (149 kt P/a) (figure 9). These figures tend to vary from year to year. Approximately 10% of phosphorus in domestically produced fertiliser ends up in phosphogypsum waste stockpiles (20 kt P/a) and a substantially smaller amount of waste streams discharged to the environment (0.02 kt P/a). The remainder is either applied to pastures (180 kt P/a), cropping systems (203 kt P/a) or exported (34 kt P/a). Fertiliser exports also vary widely from year to year (ranging from 34 to 106 kt P/a between 2006-2010).
Figure 9:
Fertiliser: inputs, outputs and net balance.
Statistics on fertiliser trade are generally of reasonable quality and produced annually. Application of fertilisers between different sectors is harder to determine, as is phosphorus in phosphogypsum and other losses such as spillages.
10
As single superphoshate (SSP), Diammonium phopshoate (DAP) and Monoammonium phosphate (MAP).
11
Mainly as Monoammonium phosphate (MAP).
15
Agriculture crop production, imports, exports and consumption Phosphorus inputs into agricultural cropping systems12 include fertilisers (203 kt P/a), manure (27 kt P/a), organic waste (4 kt P/a) and recycled biosolids/effluent from wastewater (7 kt P/a) (figure 10). Phosphorus is applied to soils, some of which is dissolved in soil solution and taken up by crop roots. Some phosphorus for crop growth also comes from the soil stock, however this stock has not been calculated nationally here (see conclusions for further discussion). Phosphorus leaves the agriculture sector as crop harvests (68 kt P/a) for food, feed or fibre processing, or is lost to non-agricultural soil or water via wind or water erosion (77 kt P/a and 10 kt P/a respectively). The remaining phosphorus either accumulates within the soil stock or remains in-situ as crop residues.
Figure 10:
Agriculture (cropping systems): inputs, outputs and net balance.
It is important to note that this represents a national average, and there are large discrepancies between different type of cropping systems (e.g. broadacre, horticulture) and across different bio-regions of Australia. Further, nation-wide data for phosphorus losses to the environment and accumulation within agriculture soils is extremely uncertain (Simpson et al 2011; Weaver and Wong, 2011).
Livestock production, imports, exports and consumption Phosphorus inputs into the livestock sector include fertilised pastures (for grazing) (180 kt P/a), feed (53 kt P/a), and feed additives (25 kt P/a) (figure 11). Cattle alone account for 53% of feed demand, and grains 72% of all feed. Unlike many other countries, a large share (almost 50%) of Australia’s phosphorus fertiliser demand is attributed to pastures. When phosphorus in feed and feed additives is included, the livestock sector accounts for 257 kt P/a demand compared to cropping sector (excluding crops produced for animal feed) which accounts for 150 kt P/a. Outputs from the livestock sector include phosphorus contained in live animals sent to abattoirs13, eggs and milk (102 kt P/a) and live animals for export (6 kt P/a). Outputs also include phosphorus contained in manure that is either reused as fertiliser in other crop systems (27 kt P/a) or, treated or untreated manure that is ‘lost’ from the livestock sector to non-agricultural soil (27 kt P/a) (for example through spreading manure on non-agricultural land or lost to water via leakage (10 kt P/a). The majority of phosphorus entering the livestock sector either accumulates in manure, animal bodies (bones, blood) or to a lesser extent exits the sector as meat and milk products. Approximately 700 kt P is excreted in livestock manure in Australia annually. This is around 60 times more than the total amount of phosphorus excreted from the entire Australian human population which is 12 kt P/a. Most of this manure (67%) is generated by grazing cattle, and hence not directly recoverable via feedlots. Only 64 kt P/a of this 700 is estimated to leave the 12
Livestock systems are analysed separately.
13
For the purpose of this study, abattoirs are considered part of the ‘food production’ sector, rather than the livestock sector, hence the large phosphorus flow leaving the livestock sector. Abattoir waste, including blood and bone reuse, has not however been indicated in the model due to lack of data.
16
livestock sector each year, the rest accumulates in soil. This figure is not explicitly shown in the model as stocks are not included (see section 5.2 for further detail).
Figure 11:
Livestock (pasture-based and feedlots): inputs, outputs and net balance.
It is also important to note that as for the agriculture sector, there are large variations in phosphorus inputs, accumulation and phosphorus use efficiency ratios within the livestock sector in Australia. These can range from northern grazing systems, which have little to no phosphorus inputs over large expanses of land, to intensive cattle feedlots which have high phosphorus inputs and yields in tonnes per hectare (McIvor et al 2011; Simpson et al, 2011).
Food production, processing, trade and consumption Phosphorus inputs into the food/fibre production system include through agricultural and livestock primary produce such as carcasses, eggs, milk, fish, crops, food additives as well as inputs from imported food (figure 12). The largest inputs include animal products (102 kt P/a) and harvested crops (68 kt P/a). Inputs into fisheries include wild catches and inputs into aquaculture (which include fish feed and nutrients). Most phosphorus in fish accumulates in fish bones and scales (rather than flesh). Some of the flesh is also wasted at some point between production and consumption.
Figure 12:
Food production: inputs, outputs and net balance.
The food/fibre production sector includes many processes from primary processing of agricultural and livestock products, food processing, food wholesaling, distribution, retailing and food preparation to the point of purchase/consumption. The most significant outputs from Australia’s food/fibre production sector (in terms of magnitude of phosphorus) are exported food/fibre (100 kt P/a) and livestock feed (53 kt P/a). Other outputs include organic waste (15 kt P/a), non-food products14 (1 kt P/a), and consumed food (12 kt P/a). The food consumption sector includes food that is literally consumed by humans in Australia.
14
Phosphorus contained in non-food products was estimated and hence an uncertain figure. This is discussed further in section 6.
17
Human excreta and wastewater The Australian population together generates approximately 12 kt P/a in urine and faeces which largely goes to wastewater. Added to this is approximately 6 kt P/a in detergents. Almost all of these two phosphorus sources enter a centralised or decentralised wastewater treatment system, ranging from septic tanks to tertiary treated wastewater. Given approximately 89% of Australians live in coastal cities, most is captured by urban centralised wastewater systems. Wastewater in Australia is treated to various levels (primary, secondary or tertiary) and using different technological processes. Phosphorus outputs from wastewater treatment are either in the liquid fraction (effluent) or solids (biosolids). The fate of effluent and biosolids range from discharge to waterways, re-use in agriculture or forestry, or disposal to landfill (figure 13). Ultimately, most phosphorus ends up discharged to oceans (and rivers), reused in agriculture or spread on non-agricultural land (figure 14). Approximately 9 kt P/a is permanently lost via ocean outfalls nationally, with approximately 4 kt of P from a single major city. This represents a significant opportunity for recovery and reuse. However it is also important to note that because most of the food and agricultural products produced in Australia are exported and hence consumed overseas, most of the phosphorus excreted by consumers of Australian food is discharged into wastewater systems in other countries and hence not available for reuse within the Australian food system.
Figure 13:
Detailed phosphorus flows into, through and from the wastewater treatment process.
Figure 14:
Wastewater: inputs, outputs and fate.
While data availability for volume of wastewater generated by each Australian utility, the type of treatment processes and the fate of biosolids in Australia are reasonably high quality, the fate of recycled effluent (specifically the proportion productively reused in agriculture) is unclear.
Organic solid waste Phosphorus is present in all organic waste at different concentrations. Phosphorus enters the organic waste sector as food waste from households, the retail or wholesale sectors and food processing waste from the food manufacturing sector. It includes both avoidable food waste 18
(such as spoilt prepared food) and unavoidable food waste (such as banana peels and egg shells). On average, this amounts to some 15 kt P/a (figure 15). Because most of Australia’s food/fibre production is exported as primary agricultural commodities (such as wheat and live exports), this means most of the associated organic waste is generated overseas, and hence the embodied phosphorus is not available for recovery and reuse.
Figure 15:
Organic waste: generation and fate.
Data availability for organic food waste is difficult to ascertain because it is often combined with other green waste that might not be associated with food preparation and consumption (e.g. landscape waste). Further, specific organic waste generation from meat and livestock sector (e.g. abattoir waste) and its fate (e.g. reuse as blood and bone fertiliser, landfill) was difficult to determine and hence not included. Assumptions regarding the average phosphorus concentration of different types of organic waste could also lead to low data reliability.
Summary While many of the data sources —and hence resultant phosphorus flows— were uncertain, the model provides indicative results for the major phosphorus flows through the Australian food system. In particular, the model indicates the key flows into, through and out from the food system, including the fate of phosphorus losses. This is important in identifying which phosphorus flows could be the focus of priority sustainability measures, based on absolute magnitude and relative proportions, when taking a holistic look at the Australian food system. For example, identification of intervention points in the system that would increase the resilience, efficiency and ‘closed-loop’ nature of the food system. It also enables individual sectors and associated stakeholders to assess the key sources and fate of phosphorus within their sector for sector-specific responses. The individual numbers should be taken with some degree of caution due to the low quality of some data. The analysis also enables an understanding of data quality and determination of future priority data collection (see section 5.1 for further discussion on data availability and reliability). The net balance of each sector (calculated as input minus output) in most cases did not equal zero. Possible explanations for this include: •
An annual accumulation or deficit (e.g. more phosphorus is being removed from the subsystem than is being inputted);
•
Data reliability was low;
•
Inaccurate assumptions (e.g. inaccurate co-efficient use, missing minor input or output flow).
The sources and nature of losses and current recovery of phosphorus are also highlighted in the model. Table 2 indicates the losses and recycling of phosphorus from each sector expressed both in absolute terms and as a percentage of the output from that sector. The 19
magnitude (kt P/a) indicates the importance of this flow relative to others in terms of potential measures to improve efficiency, while the loss or recovery rate (expressed as %) indicates the potential scope for increasing phosphorus reuse. It is important to note that these losses and recovery rates only represent outflows from sectors, not losses or recycling that occurs within each sector. For example, recovery rates within agriculture are not included because either crop residues are recirculated with the sector or, harvested crops recovered as organic waste is calculated in the food production sector.
Table 2:
Summary of losses and recovery rates of phosphorus for each key sector (in absolute and percentage terms).
Sector
P losses from sector % kt P/a loss15
P recycled to agriculture % kt P/a recycled16
Mining
1
0.5%
N/A
N/A
Fertiliser
20
5%
N/A
N/A
Agriculture
86
56%
N/A
N/A
Livestock
36
21%
27
42%
Food production
12
7%
4
26%
Wastewater
11
61%
7
39%
Organic waste
12
74%
4
26%
Comments This loss is not representative (and likely to be much larger based on international studies) as data on losses from mining were not available and some internal recovery of phosphorus within the mining sector could occur. Estimate associated with phosphogypsum stockpiles. This is a temporary loss. Recycling within the fertiliser sector was not determined. Losses are mainly due to soil erosion. Recycling included in food production sector below; Excludes crop residues recirculated within agriculture sector Includes manure lost or recycled outside of the livestock sector (i.e. excludes manure recycled within the livestock sector); excludes abattoir waste Losses exclude organic waste associated with food production overseas from exported agricultural commodities; excludes abattoir waste due to lack of data. Includes phosphorus in effluent and biosolids either lost to water/landfill/nonsoil, or recycled to agriculture. Caution: double counting with losses/recovery flows from food production, i.e. these are the same absolute flows (kt P/a) as the food production sector, however percentages are expressed as proportion of the organic waste sector.
Specific conclusions and recommendations associated with the v1.3 phosphorus flows model are highlighted and discussed in the following section.
15
Loss expressed as a percentage of the total outflow from that sector.
16
Recycling expressed as the percentage of waste outflow from that sector that is recirculated to agriculture (as opposed to lost).
20
Implications This section provides conclusions, discussion and recommendations from Phase 1 of the project. It focuses predominantly on the Phosphorus Flows Model v1.3, as this was the major research task within Phase 1. The Recommendations 1-7 refer specifically to furthering the research objectives of the overall three year Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures project, based on the results and conclusions from Phase 1.
Data Availability and Reliability Data availability (and reliability of phosphorus flows) are low or extremely low, for most flows associated with informal sectors such as organic waste reuse. There is a substantial lack of phosphorus data and modelling relative to other important resources (carbon, water, etc). The lack of phosphorus data is a commonly identified constraint for undertaking phosphorus substance flows analyses (Pellerin, 2011). Table 3 indicates the quality of data used to undertake the phosphorus flows analysis. ‘Sufficient data’ refers to data that is of high or reasonable quality. ‘Poor data’ data relates to data which is known to be of poor quality from the original source or, is a questionable proxy for the specific parameter (e.g. if an international figure has been used as a proxy for Australia, or a figure that is 10-15 years old). ‘Absent data’ refers to data where assumptions were made in the absence of any data. The latter are also highlighted grey in figure 2 and in the excel model. Table 3:
Sector
Status of data quality for data inputs into the Australian Phosphorus Flows Model. Data quality are categorised as sufficient, poor/questionable or absent. * indicates a significant flow in terms of magnitude or importance.
Data quality Sufficient
Poor/questionable
Absent • Phosphorus in detergents produced and consumed in Australia • *Phosphorus in mining waste • *Phosphate rock production and reserves on Christmas Island
Phosphate rock
• Phosphate rock trade (production and imports)
• Proportion of total phosphate rock used for industrial use • *Phosphorus content of phosphate rock (in annual production and reserves)
Fertilisers
• Phosphorus concentration of P2O5 and all commercial grade fertilisers • Phosphate fertiliser trade • Processing losses to the environment (excludes phosphogypsum) • Fertiliser application in cropping systems (by fertiliser type)
• *P205 content in dry waste storage of phosphogypsum • *Proportion of domestically used fertiliser applied to crops (versus pastures)
Agriculture (crop systems)
Livestock
• Phosphorus in animal feed broken down by
N/A
• *Phosphorus losses via soil erosion to non- agricultural uses and water associated with fertiliser/manure
• *Phosphorus in non-food agricultural products (such as pet food, clothing, oils) • *Percent of phosphorus lost from pastures vs cropping systems to non-ag land • *Phosphorus inputs in aquaculture (e.g. fish feed, added nutrients) and outputs (fish stocks and waste)
• *Phosphorus in manure that is reused in agriculture
• *Phosphorus in feed supplements for livestock
21
Sector
Data quality Sufficient grain type and animal type • Live export by head numbers • Average weight per animal
Poor/questionable • *Phosphorus content of live animals (%P), particularly sheep • *Percent of phosphorus in edible versus non-edible carcass parts
Absent • *Percent of phosphorus lost from pastures versus cropping systems to non-ag land
Food production
• Crop production by crop type (kt/a) • Fisheries production, exports and consumption • Imported food and fibre (kt/a)
• Proportion of purchased food which is actually consumed • Phosphorus in imported food • *Phosphorus in exported food • *Phosphorus concentration of food/crop types
• Phosphorus in food additives for human consumption • Proportion of phosphorus in non-food products versus food products • Aquaculture inputs and outputs • Wild animal catches
Wastewater
• Wastewater generation (GL) • Fate of biosolids (landfill, reuse in ag, reuse in non-ag)
• *Fate of recycled effluent in Australia (e.g. proportion recycled to residential/ industrial uses versus recycled to agricultural soil versus recycled to non-ag soil) • Phosphorus removed from different treatment processes • *Phosphorus excreted per person
Organic waste
• Food waste generated in municipal and commercial/industrial sectors • Food waste sent to landfill versus recycled
• *Phosphorus in organic waste and the fate – blood and bone
N/A
• Proportion of seafood ending as organic waste (preconsumer and post-consumer) • Proportion of 'Green Organics' assumed to be associated with food production and consumption • *Phosphorus in blood and bone reused in agriculture as fertiliser
In the above table, not all data of insufficient quality is considered a priority for future data collection. Only those which relate to a significant flow (in terms of relative magnitude) are starred and are considered priority. Recommendation 1: collect and analyse priority data (i.e. data that is currently absent
or poor/questionable and of significance as expressed in Table 3).
Accumulation and Depletion: Phosphorus Stocks Calculating phosphorus stocks was not included in Phase 1 due to a lack of accessible time series data and the complex modeling that is required. A ‘stock’ refers to the accumulation of phosphorus within a given sector (measured as a total mass, in this case kt of P, rather than an annual flux). The annual inputs and outputs to/from a sector can contribute to or deplete a stock over a time. Therefore calculating a stock requires dynamic modeling (i.e. setting a start and end year, and calculating the cumulated phosphorus during that period by adding annual inputs and subtracting annual outputs). In some sectors there is likely to be little accumulation of phosphorus, and hence a negligible stock, such as in fertiliser production/trade, food production, food consumption and 22
wastewater treatment (excluding biosolids). However the phosphorus stock can be significant and hence important in other sectors, such as: •
mining sector – depletion of phosphate rock reserves in Australia and globally (Australia depletes approximately 352 kt P annually17); there is little phosphate rock stockpiled over large periods of time;
•
agricultural sector – primarily phosphate accumulation in soils (accumulating annually at a rate of 77 kt P/a);
•
livestock sector – particularly accumulation of manure (accumulating annually at a rate of 635 kt P/a) and to a lesser extent steady-state in the stock of live animal bodies;
•
wastewater sector – primarily as biosolid stockpiles in South Australia (accumulating annually at a rate of 1.5 kt P/a).
In the case of soil, the stock will also differ between regions and are spatially important (see 5.5). Further, the geospatial and biochemical nature of the phosphorus soil stock will affect whether the element can be accessed for its fertiliser value. Recommendation 2
For key sectors where stocks are known to be of significant in terms of magnitude or importance, including mining, agriculture, livestock and wastewater biosolids: •
Identify potential data sources related to the stock;
•
Develop appropriate method for calculating stock (taking into account available data, start/end years and annual accumulation/depletion rates, including annual variance); and
•
Calculate stocks for these key sectors.
Temporal Variability: Static Model and Baseline Year A phosphorus flows model typically involves modelling a static year. The year 2007 was selected as the static year because it was the most recent year with available data across all sectors. While a static year is useful for gaining a snapshot of the current phosphorus food system, there are drawbacks. Firstly, there can be significant annual variations/fluctuations that are not captured in a static model. For example, fertiliser application rates, crop yields, exports all may vary from year to year. Some of this variability is due to climate (e.g. rainfall, drought), market trends/drivers (e.g. agricultural commodity prices, farm input prices), or other exogenous factors. For example, 2007 was a drought year and hence, from an agricultural perspective, an atypical year. Agricultural production, such as wheat, is often presented using decadal average values. Kirkegaard and Hunt (2010; fig.1) provides a demonstration of how wheat yields vary dramatically from year to year. Secondly, there may be a lag time associated with the phosphorus flux between different sectors. For example, phosphorus in fertiliser produced in a given year may not reach the wastewater plant until the following year. This is essentially the ‘residence time’ of a phosphorus atom from a phosphate mine to a wastewater treatment plant. While it was not feasible to create a dynamic model within the scope of Phase 1, v1.3 dealt with this issue by developing a model that allows for a range of baseline years (2006-2010) 17
Including phosphate from domestic and international sources; this depletion rate varies annually.
23
with associated data to be selected. Not all data was available for all years, hence the timeseries are not currently populated for all sectors for all years. Package software are available for modeling substance flows, however these are not as flexible and user-friendly as a purpose-built model (such as v1.3 built in Phase 1) which was designed to match the data quality, availability and nature. Finally, there is potential for the model to link to other important dynamics related to phosphorus and the Australian food system, such as energy, water, labour associated with extraction, production and trade of phosphate rock and fertilisers. The Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF) model, developed by CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems (Turner, 2011), can undertake integrated analyses of the Australian physical economy such as population, land use, water, agriculture, forestry, thereby enabling exploration of future scenarios. This currently excludes phosphorus, however the Australian Phosphorus Flows Model (and/or the interactive future phosphorus scenarios) could be linked to the ASFF. Recommendation 3:
•
Consider populating this model capability (i.e. seek, extrapolate or interpolate data for years 2006-2010) so that different static years could be modeled to explore the variability/sensitivity in resulting flows; and
•
Explore potential to link to the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (and hence the link to other resources/drivers).
Spatial Variability: Geospatial Distribution and Land Use In its current form, the Australian Phosphorus Flows Model v1.3 assumes national averages, however the Australian food system can differ with respect to phosphorus status and use not just temporally but spatially. For example, some regions will have phosphorus accumulation in soils while others will have phosphorus-depleted soils. Agricultural and livestock land use types vary widely in terms of phosphorus use efficiency, phosphorus fertiliser application rates and productivity (the latter both expressed per hectare). For example, northern grazing systems have high phosphorus use efficiencies because they are extremely low input systems, however the land area is also extremely high relative to southern grazing systems, which have higher phosphorus inputs than fertiliser. Feedlots differ again as they have very small footprints (in terms of hectares), and high embodied phosphorus inputs in the form of feed. Similarly, with respect to wastewater, approximately 90% of Australia’s population are living in coastal urban centres, making cities phosphorus ‘hotspots’. That is, phosphorus in excreta is concentrated in urban wastewater and hence theoretically can be captured more readily, either at the toilet or wastewater treatment system, before it is dispersed and lost permanently to receiving water bodies. This spatial variability is also important in terms of energy and logistics of transporting phosphorus between sectors, given the potentially vast distances at play.
24
Recommendation 4:
•
Separate agriculture and livestock each into at least three key land-use types, consistent with the interactive future scenarios;
•
Develop a framework for a geospatial model of Australia indicating phosphorus hotspots from: urban areas, ‘sinks’ such as landfills, water pollution and ‘sources’ such as phosphate rock mines), different phosphorus status of soils, phosphorus associated with different land-use systems and the feasibility of transporting virgin and recycled phosphorus (from an energy and cost perspective).
Phosphorus Losses and Recycling Rates The model (and table 2) indicates that there are substantial phosphorus losses in almost all key sectors (some greater than others, with the highest reaching 75% sector losses). The greatest losses in absolute terms occur as permanent losses via soil and manure loss from the agriculture and livestock sectors respectively and, to lesser extent as a temporary loss in phosphogypsum stockpiles from fertiliser production. The former is permanent, in the sense that the phosphorus cannot be recovered for productive reuse in the food production system. The latter is temporary, in the sense that phosphorus can theoretically be extracted from phosphogypsum stockpiles. Losses can vary widely in degree of permanence (permanent to temporary), cause (unavoidable to avoidable) and in turn, the potential management response (efficiency and/or recycling). Schröder et al (2010, p.33) provides a typology of phosphorus losses from the food system and sustainable management responses. Current recycling (recovery rates) of phosphorus from sectors and productive reuse in agriculture varies from sector to sector in the Australian food system, reaching up to 40% recycling. Sustainability measures that can be undertaken by each sector to improve phosphorus efficiency and recycling are outlined in Appendix A6. Recommendation 5:
•
Recalculate waste streams (losses) and recycling (recovery) in table 3 based on revised data (Recommendation 1);
•
Categorise waste streams according to typology of phosphorus losses (Schröder et al, 2010, p.33); and
•
For significant waste streams, identify most effective intervention points in the system and determine feasibility of improving efficiency to reduce losses versus improve recycling and associated potential sustainability measures (see Appendix A6 and White et al, 2010).
Interactive Future Scenarios: Assumptions, Interface and Linkages with Other Resources The interactive future scenarios v1.0 present a significant opportunity for both understanding future implications of the current situation, future possibilities and options, and importantly, provides a tool for visualization supported deliberation among scientists, policy-makers,
25
industry, the community and other key stakeholders related to different aspects of the phosphorus-food system. Members of NSPAG supported this view. However in its current form, v1.0 is limited due to: •
Data quality – the reliability of the locked assumptions is poor in some instances, particularly related to land area required for different agricultural land uses in the future. All assumptions are linked to land area, hence the importance of accuracy and user acceptability of these assumptions;
•
Limited interactivity with respect to feedback – while v1.0 allows for user input in changing assumptions, this version only provides an initial framework, and does not currently provide textual feedback indicating the significance of the choices made (i.e. the users choice along the slide bar), nor explain the scenarios that can be modified.
•
Linkage with other resource use – Currently not linked to consequences of other resource use in the economy on phosphorus (and vice versa), such as energy, water, labour, climate change, land use.
Developing v2 of the model therefore presents many opportunities, as highlighted in Recommendation 6. Recommendation 6: Developing v2 of the interactive future phosphorus scenarios:
•
Improve/refine the quality of input data which is locked, particularly for land area;
•
Have input data and locked assumptions verified by NSPAG and/or other relevant experts related to the specific areas;
•
Add textual feedback (such as description of user input assumptions, implications of gap);
•
Allow user-acceptance testing of the tool, in terms of usability, reliability, perception, relevance and appropriateness;
•
Consider further developing scenarios through stakeholder consultation that incorporates the complexities of the Australian food system through a futures forum/workshop;
•
Analyse inter-linkages between phosphorus and other sectors/resources and incorporate these into future versions of the model; and
•
Explore potential to link to the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework.
Future of NSPAG All NSPAG members in attendance at the first meeting agreed in principle to the Terms of Reference (ToR) and indicated a willingness to remain involved. Minor modifications were made to the ToR and recirculated to the group. The group also commented on the value, relevance and quality of the Australian Phosphorus Flows Model v1.3 and the Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios (v1.0). NSPAG members agreed that further research is required, in accordance with the three year project. In terms of future priorities, the members identified trade-off between investing in improving current phosphorus flows model and investing in future scenarios (both of which were seen as important to an extent). As noted earlier, specific comments made by NSPAG members have been incorporated into the model and this report, specifically in relation to: better data sources, significance of stocks and renaming the v1.3 model Phosphorus Flows 26
Model rather than Phosphorus Stocks and Flows model, implications of static versus dynamic modeling (and the year 2007 in particular); linkages with other resources; and future priorities. Recommendation 7:
• Continue NSPAG as per Terms of Reference; and • Seek further members as needed/identified to fill a gap in expertise.
27
Recommendations This section synthesises the seven recommendations identified in the previous section and identifies future priorities within this three year project based on the outcomes from Phase 1. There is merit in improving both the present phosphorus flows model (Recommendations 1-5) and the future phosphorus scenarios (Recommendations 6) to a certain degree. It is important to have a solid foundation of current baseline phosphorus flows, whilst simultaneously taking a future-oriented outlook. That is, a robust phosphorus stocks and flows model of sufficient quality would be an excellent basis for systematically investigating the feasible and sustainable future scenarios. Such research (in particular the interactive scenarios) can facilitate stakeholder engagement and awareness-raising of the key issues around phosphorus sustainability in Australia (including implications of global drivers) and how they relate to each sector (from mining to wastewater). Potential sustainable phosphorus measures for each sector were identified in the previous iteration of this project (White et al, 2010) and are summarised again in Appendix A6. Engagement and awareness-raising can occur through stakeholder interaction with the research findings and tools (for example through NSPAG; Recommendation 7) combined with stakeholder deliberation and input via expert views. This informed awareness and deliberation can in turn lead to informed policy advice and concrete actions to achieve a sustainable future phosphorus pathway for the Australian food system. In order for this to be achieved, investment in future research is required to improve data quality, the interactive tool, and to identify sustainability measures and their cost and policy implications. Hence a first priority is further funding from existing and future government, industry and scientific partners. In summary, research, communication and policy actions that can facilitate change towards sustainable phosphorus futures within this three year project are therefore identified as: •
Funding of next phase of the research is required from existing and new partners (from policy, industry, scientific community);
•
Create an ‘Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures’ public webpage within the GPRI website (www.phosphorusfutures.net) to communicate all key Australian phosphorus research and policy outputs to-date (as per timeline in figure 1);
•
Engage key stakeholders via a policy forum to raise the profile of the issue among policy-makers and support the development of policies and initiatives to improve phosphorus use;
•
Undertake improvements to the Australian Phosphorus Flows Model, especially those that further the development of the interactive scenarios (outlined in Recommendations 15);
•
Undertake improvements to the Interactive Future Phosphorus Scenarios (outlined in Recommendation 6);
•
Continue NSPAG as per the Terms of Reference (see Recommendation 7);
•
Engage stakeholders via participatory development of future scenarios and community/farmer engagement (as per workshop outlined in Tasks 4 and 5 in table 1);
28
•
Undertake analysis of phosphorus supply and demand-side initiatives in terms of quantity, associated costs and policy implications (as per Tasks 3 and 6 as outlined in table 1).
29
Appendices A1: Phase 1 Project Team and Roles A2: National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG) Terms of Reference A3: v1.3 Australian Phosphorus Flows Model (Excel) A4: Classification of Phosphorus Flows A5: Net Phosphorus Inputs and Outputs in Australia and the Australian Food System A6: Sustainable Phosphorus Measures by Sector
30
A1: Phase 1 Project Team and Roles
Dr Dana Cordell Chancellor's Postdoctoral Research Fellow Project Director
Professor Stuart White Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures Expert Advisor
Melissa Jackson Senior Research Consultant P Project Manager
Chris Cooper Research Consultant P Flows Model v1.3
Steve Mohr Research Consultant P Futures Model v1.0
Louise Boronyak Research Consultant P Project Research
31
Dustin Moore Research Consultant P Project Research
A2: National Strategic Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG) Terms of Reference Preamble Global phosphorus scarcity is likely to threaten Australia and the world’s ability to produce food in the future if concerted efforts are not taken by policy makers, scientists, industry and the community today. While phosphorus is an essential element for crop growth in the form of fertilisers, the world’s main source of phosphorus (mined phosphate rock) is becoming increasingly scarce and expensive. Until recently, the phosphorus scarcity challenge was not on the scientific and policy agenda. This Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures project aims to increase scientific knowledge on a range of issues relating to sustainable phosphorus use in Australia and will run over a three year period, building on previous research (see figure 1), including: •
2007-2010: Doctoral research by Dr Cordell on the implications of phosphorus scarcity for food security globally and in Australia.
•
2008: National Workshop on the Future of Phosphorus– high-level stakeholder workshop to share perspectives, key challenges and generate a shared vision.
•
2010: Preliminary research on Securing a sustainable phosphorus future for Australia (collaborative project with CSIRO) – refining the implications of and responses to phosphorus scarcity for Australia.
Put peak P on agenda; Implications of peak 2008 National P for Australia stakeholder workshop
DCordell PhD thesis
2007
CSIRO collaborative project
2010
Oz P flows model v1.3; NSPAG; Framework for interactive scenarios v1.0
2011
P stocks and flows model (V2), collaborative long-term scenarios, sustainable strategies and technologies for Australia to secure phosphorus
AUSTRALIAN SUSTAINABLE PHOSPHORUS FUTURES PROJECT
PHASE 1
2012
2013
2014
Figure A2-1: Timeline indicating connection between current sustainable phosphorus project and past related projects.
Funding has been secured for Phase 1 of the Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures Project which has developed ‘version 1.3’ of the Australian Phosphorus Stocks and Flows Model. The National Sustainable Phosphorus Advisory Group (NSPAG) will guide development of the three year project (commencing with phase 1).
32
1. Purpose The purpose of the NSPAG is to: •
ensure the research outcomes of the project will be relevant, credible and consistent with recent scientific, policy and industry advancements across related sectors,
•
facilitate recognition at the international level of Australia’s leadership in this field and build networks with the global phosphorus network.
To attract further attention to this issue, the first NSPAG meeting will coincide with the third Sustainable Phosphorus Summit to publicly launch the Australian Sustainable Phosphorus Futures Project and the establishment of the NSPAG using existing and new media contacts and other communication channels and networks. 2. Composition The members are representatives of key stakeholder groups and sectors related to phosphorus in the food system. The members will be spread across all sectors – the science, government, industry, academia and community sector; and across all stages of the food production and consumption chain including: the mining and fertiliser industry, agriculture and food production/processing and trade, food consumption and diets, water and sanitation, environmental protection, and solid waste management. Identification of potential members occurs within the coordinating project team from ISF and can be recommended by active core NSPAG members to the project team. Approximately 12 members will form the core NSPAG, however, additional experts may be called upon on an as needed basis for specific aspects of the project that may arise. The core members will be informed if such a case arises. 3. Roles and Responsibilities Roles and responsibilities of members of the NSPAG may include: a. High level advice on various aspects of the project including scope, design and outputs (such as reports), b. Identification of data sources and facilitation of data access for the project team, c. Informing NSPAG of relevant new research findings or events that may impact on the project, d. Identification of potential stakeholders to participate in research workshops, e. Assisting with communication and distribution of research and policy findings to target audiences where appropriate, f.
Advising project team of unavailability with advance notice if unable to remain an NSPAG member, and recommending a replacement.
ISF researcher roles in relation to NSPAG include: •
Coordination of meetings with all correspondence to be directed to the Project Director or Manager,
•
Distribution of agenda and background documents and minutes, and
•
Incorporation of NSPAG advice into research project documents where relevant and appropriate.
33
•
Raise the profile of sustainable phosphorus use on both national policy and scientific agendas.
4. NSPAG Meetings - Duration and Timing Meetings of up to two hours duration will be held up to three times per year during the project period (three years) or as needed. Meetings will be held by teleconference or in person as agreed with members. A minimum of three members plus one ISF project member is required for a meeting to be held. The first meeting/official launch to establish the NSPAG is to coincide with the Sustainable Phosphorus Summit 29th February – 2nd March 2012 in Sydney. 5. Review of Terms of Reference These Terms of Reference shall be agreed by all key members of the NSPAG at the first meeting. Members can propose amendments to the Terms of Reference via the ISF Project Team who will circulate via all NSPAG members for agreement. The Terms of Reference will be reviewed annually and agreed by NSPAG members either at a meeting or as negotiated via email, phone or written correspondence.
Version 1-2 30th May 2012
34
A3: v1.3 Australian P Flows Model See: Cordell, D., Jackson, M. White, S. (2013), Phosphorus flows through the Australian food system: Identifying intervention points as a roadmap to phosphorus security, Environmental Science & Policy, 2(9) 87–102.
35
A4: Classification of P Flows Table A4-1: Classification, description and value of phosphorus in key sectors within the Australian food system (corresponding to v1.3 model). See Cordell et al (2013) for data sources.
Code
Sector
Value (kt P/a)
A
Imported Phosphate Rock
64
B
Domestic Mines
288
C
Phosphate Rock
353
D
Industrial uses
E
Imported Fertiliser
149
F
Fertiliser
405
G
Exported Fertiliser
34
H
Agriculture (Soil, Crops)
241
J
Livestock (Pastures, feedlots)
257
-
Manure
600 +/20%
28
Description, inclusions, assumptions Phosphate rock predominantly imported from Morocco/Western Sahara. Currently this only includes the main mine at Phosphate Hill (run by Incitec Pivot). This is commercial grade phosphate rock (i.e. it has been cleaned/processed). Includes phosphorus used for non-food uses - e.g. mainly detergents (but also fire retardants, matches, medicines, etc.). This includes all commercial fertilisers containing phosphorus - TSP, SSP, MAP, DAP, NPK etc.. This includes all commercial fertilisers containing P - TSP, SSP, MAP, DAP, NPK etc.. This includes all commercial fertilisers containing phosphorus - TSP, SSP, MAP, DAP, NPK etc.. This is the crop-based agricultural system, which includes agricultural soils and crops; includes both crops and crop residues before they leave the field (i.e. once harvested, crops enters the 'food/fibre production' box). This is the livestock-based system, which includes pastures (fertilised or unfertilised), feedlots, animals, manure, pasture soils. This is a stock within J. Manure includes all phosphorus in manure, regardless of where it is generated, however only a fraction of this is productively reused as fertiliser (either because the animals defecate where phosphorus is not needed) or it is processed as dairy wastewater etc..
36
Exclusions Excludes Christmas Island and Nauru. Excludes the smaller mines in South Australia that are used for non-fertiliser production. Excludes the smaller mines in South Australia that are used for non-fertiliser production. Excludes non-fertiliser phosphorus that is used in the food system (e.g. phosphorus food/feed additives - these are captured in C3 and C4 as they are still within the food system). Excludes non-commercial fertilisers (phosphorus in manure etc.). Excludes non-commercial fertilisers (phosphorus in manure etc.). Excludes non-commercial fertilisers (phosphorus in manure etc.).
Excludes livestock, manure, pastures and harvested crops.
Excludes abattoirs (abattoirs are included in food production).
-
Code
Sector
Value (kt P/a)
L
Non-Ag soil
106
M
Food/Fibre Production
182
N
Imported Food/Fibre
1
O
Exported Food/Fibre
100
P
Consumed Food
12
Q
Organic Waste
15
R
Human Excreta
12
S
Non-Food
1
T
Landfill
12
U
Water
29
V
Mining waste
1
W
Exported phosphate rock
0
Description, inclusions, assumptions This is soil on land used for purposes other than food/fibre production (either natural landscapes or human-altered); phosphorus from the food system enters non-ag soil via manure, agriculture, wastewater. Includes the processing, production and trade of all cropbased products and animalbased products starting at harvest/slaughter. Includes all imported food items. Includes all crop-based products exported from Australia (ranging from grains, live sheep exports, processed read-to-eat foods). This represents the food literally ingested by humans domestically. This includes all organic waste from the food processing, production and consumption chain, from harvest though to consumption. Includes human excreta generated by the Australian population regardless of sector where this takes place (e.g. could be in home, restaurant etc.). This includes all agricultural products for non-human food production, such as pet food, oils, fibres etc.. Includes all organic waste sent to landfills. All natural surface water bodies, including rivers, lakes and oceans. Sources of phosphorus to water include: effluent from wastewater, manure, soil erosion. Includes any phosphorus waste (e.g. sludge) produced during the mining process. New Australian phosphate mines e.g. Legend are now exporting to India.
37
Exclusions
-
Currently excludes fibres due to lack of data. Excludes food purchased but not physically consumed (e.g. excludes wasted food and food scraps); excludes food consumed overseas. Currently excludes abattoir waste due to lack of data.
Excludes human excreta overseas.
Currently excludes abattoir waste. Excludes water storage for human consumption. Excludes phosphogypsum stockpiles which are generated during fertiliser production. -
Code
Sector
Value (kt P/a)
X
Phosphogyp sum stockpiles
20
Y
Other Production Losses
0.02
Z
Vegetation
N/A
AA
Wastewater
19
BB
Fisheries
N/A
CC
Wild animals
N/A
Description, inclusions, assumptions During phosphorus fertiliser production through the wet acid route (applying sulfuric acid), a large waste stream is generated, particularly phosphogysum that is considered too radioactive to reuse. Controlled losses to the environment (water, soil) associated with fertiliser manufacturing. Natural vegetation, e,g. cattle grazed on unfertilised Northern grazelands. All wastewater collected either centrally or small-scale (almost all of which is treated to some degree). Includes all fisheries – wild catches and farmed. Farmed fish require inputs of nutrients (including phosphorus). Kangaroos, deer, birds, etc..
38
Exclusions
Excludes other losses occurring during fertiliser production.
Excludes phosphogypsum stockpiles. Excludes fertilised pastures. Excludes phosphorus in food waste lost via in-sink-erators.
Excludes farmed 'native' animals such as crocodiles etc..
Table A4-2: Classification and value of phosphorus flows between sectors in the Australian food system (corresponding to v1.3 model). For description see corresponding sector code in Table A4-1. For data sources see Cordell et al (2013) Flow
Value (kt P/a)
Code
Flow between sectors
A1
A-C
Imported phosphate rock
64
B1
B-C
Processed phosphate rock
288
B2
B-V
Mine waste generation (sludge etc.)
C1
C-F
Phosphate rock processed into fertilisers
256
C2
C-D
Phosphate rock processed into industrial goods
28
C3
C-J
Livestock feed additives
25
C4
C-M
Food additives
11
C5
C-W
Exported phosphate rock
0
D1
D-AA
Detergents used
6
E1
E-F
Imported fertiliser
149
F1
F-H
Fertiliser applied to agricultural soils
203
F2
F-J
Fertiliser applied to pastures
180
F3
F-G
Exported Fertiliser
34
F4
F-X
Phosphogypsum - waste from fertiliser production
20
F5
F-Y
Other waste from fertiliser production
H1
H-M
Harvested crops for food processing
68
H2
H-L
Soil erosion to non-agricultural land
77
H3
H-U
Soil erosion to water
10
J1
J-M
Livestock/milk/eggs sent for processing
102
J2
J-O?
Exported livestock
6
J3
J-H
Manure fertiliser
27
1
0.02
J4
J-L
Manure to Non-agricultural Soil
27
M1
M-P
Consumed Food
12
M2
M-J
Animal feed
53
M3
M-Q
Processing and food waste
15
M4
M-S
Non-food
1?
M5
M-O
Exported food and agricultural products
105
N1
N-M
Imported food and fibre
1
P1
P-R
Excretion
12
Q1
Q-T
Organic Waste - Landfill
12
39
Code
Flow between sectors
Q2
Q-H
R1
R-AA
Flow
Value (kt P/a)
Organic Waste - Soil Stocks
4
Excreta to wastewater
12
Z1
Z-J
Natural grazing
?
AA1 AA2
AA-H AA-L
Wastewater - Soil stocks Wastewater – Non-agricultural soil
7 2
AA3
AA-T
Wastewater - Landfill
AA4
AA-U
Wastewater - Water
9
BB1
BB-M
Fisheries
1
40
0.2
A5: Net Phosphorus Inputs and Outputs in Australia and the Australian Food System Table A5-1 indicates the major phosphorus imports and exports into/out from the country, indicating a net phosphorus import of 80 kt P/a. Table A5-1: Phosphorus imports and outputs in Australia
P IMPORTS
(kt P/a)
Phos rock imports
P EXPORTS 64
Fert imports
Fertiliser exports
149
Food/fibre imports
(kt P/a) 34
Food exports
100
TOTAL EXPORTS
134
1 214
TOTAL IMPORTS
NET:
80
IMPORT
Table A5-2 indicates the major phosphorus inputs and outputs into/out from the Australian food system, indicating a net phosphorus export of 106 kt P/a. Table A5-2: Phosphorus inputs and outputs in the Australia food system
P INPUTS Phos rock imports Fert imports Food/fibre imports Fish catches
(kt P/a) 64 149 1 1
P OUTPUTS Mining waste Phosphogypsum stockpiles Fertiliser exports Industrial uses Other fert losses to enviro Soil erosion Manure to non-ag soil Food exports Non-food Wastewater to non-ag Wastewater to water Wastewater to landfill Manure to water Organic waste to landfill
TOTAL IN
215
TOTAL OUT
NET
106.22
OUTPUT
41
(kt P/a)
1 20 34 28 0.02 77 27 100 1 2 9 0.2 10 12
321.22
A6: Sustainable Phosphorus Measures by Sector The following is a modified excerpt from White et al (2010; p.31), that is, the authors’ previous iteration of this project: Key objectives of future phosphorus security for Australia include: •
Reduce Australia’s dependence on increasingly scarce mineral phosphate sources (imported and domestic);
•
Maintain or improve Australia’s agricultural and food productivity in the long-term, including investing in healthy soils;
•
Ensure farmer needs are met;
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Maximise the efficient use and recovery of phosphorus throughout the food production and consumption system;
•
Minimise the deleterious environmental impacts of phosphorus use, particularly related to eutrophication, energy consumption and mobilising heavy metals into the environment.
In order to achieve the preferred scenario, a number of measures could be implemented by different stakeholders and sectors. Whilst substantial opportunities exist in the agricultural sector (see Simpson et al, 2011), it will be essential that sustainability initiatives take place in other sectors, including the mining and fertiliser sector, food sector, sanitation and waste sector and environmental management sectors. Addressing these other sectors will be essential to both securing a sustainable phosphorus future for Australia, and, for understanding the implications for agriculture. Agricultural and livestock sectors In the agricultural and livestock sectors, sustainable phosphorus use measures can substantially reduce the overall demand for phosphorus, while maintaining Australia’s productivity, reducing deleterious environmental impacts and supporting farmer livelihoods. Measures include soil testing and fertiliser selection placement and timing to ensure local soil fertility needs are met (without under or over-fertilising); soil improvement to reduce erosion losses and increase availability of existing soil phosphorus to plant roots, and plant selection and optimisation (IFA, 2009). Figure 11 conceptualises these interventions and Reviews II-IV discuss such measures at length referring to specific cropping and pasture systems within Australia. These measures can minimise the need for external phosphorus application, maximise productive uptake of phosphorus by plant roots and/or reduce losses to soil or water (Cornish, 2009; Richardson et al., 2009). Phosphorus demand could also be reduced be reconsidering the profile of the agricultural sector, including exports. That is, optimising the agricultural sector to produce more low phosphorus-demanding commodities. Interventions in the livestock sector can include animal selection or breeding for minimizing phosphorus requirements, feed management for maximising productive use of phosphorus in feed (e.g. through phytase enrichment), and productive use of manures and farmyard organic material as fertiliser supplements.
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Figure A6-1. Measures to increase phosphorus use efficiency in agriculture – interventions in fertiliser selection and use, soil management and plant management.
Mining and fertiliser sector Although often overlooked, there can be opportunities for efficiency gains in the mining and fertiliser sector. A recent study undertaken by the International Fertiliser Industry Association found that average losses during mining, beneficiation and fertiliser processing are in the order of 15-30% (Prud’Homme, 2010). These losses can be reduced through improved management (such as reducing spillages). Other potential sustainable measures in the phosphate mining and fertiliser sector include (UNEP, 2001; Cordell, 2010): •
Minimising onsite environmental and social impacts (e.g. pollution/breaching of tailings dams);
•
Invest in renewable sources of phosphorus that can be sold on the market;
•
Invest in efficient technologies (e.g. for Cadmium removal);
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Contribute to mitigating downstream impacts, in accordance with Extended Producer Responsibility frameworks; and
•
Ensure short and long-term phosphorus availability and accessibility to farmers. Following harvest, there are numerous intervention points in the food production and consumption system to reduce the demand for phosphorus through increased efficiency.
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Food production, processing and consumption sectors However much of the phosphorus is exported in agricultural commodities (including wheat and live sheep exports), and hence processed into food overseas. This leaves little opportunity to recover phosphorus from the resulted food waste in exported products in the Australian food system. In the domestic food production, processing and retailing sector, sustainable measures might focus on either reducing avoidable phosphorus losses in organic and food waste (e.g. reducing spillages or wastage of edible food) and seeking to compost and reuse the phosphorus in unavoidable waste (such as banana peels and oil press cake waste). This includes all food processing stages post-harvest to food retailing to final consumers (Cordell et al., 2009b). Food consumers (the final end users of most phosphorus) can collectively contribute to increased phosphorus use efficiency in the food chain, through measures such as improved food planning and shopping to reduce wastage (e.g. spoilage), use of leftovers, and avoid disposal of edible foods (even if their stated used by date has passed) (Lundqvist et al., 2008; Baker et al., 2009). Composting unavoidable waste (including both kitchen and garden and other organic matter around the house) can enable phosphorus in organic matter to be recovered for reused locally (Zero Waste Australia, 2008). Australians (and the global population) will also need to confront diets and shift towards less resourceintensive diets lower down the food chain. At the global scale, it was estimated that global phosphorus demand could be reduced by 2-3% if x% ate less meat and dairy products (Cordell et al., 2009b). This will reduce the demand for livestock both within Australia and globally, which will in turn reduce the generation of manure. The available manure will need to be more productively (and efficiently) recovered and reused for its phosphorus (and other nutrient) value. This means a high recovery rate and transporting and reusing nutrients where they are needed, rather than spreading manure for disposal purposes. New technologies are emerging that extract and concentrate the phosphorus in bulky manures and other animal wastes, such as through struvite18 precipitation or incinerator ash. This can have substantial benefits in Australia where potential transport distances may be great. Human excreta and wastewater sector Similarly, phosphorus in human excreta will need to be productively recovered for reuse as fertiliser. Human excreta currently represents a very small fraction (2-3%) of phosphorus demand in Australian agriculture - compared to the global average of 20% (Cordell et al., 2009a) - largely because most of the phosphorus in food produced in Australia ends up in the urine and faeces of overseas food consumers. However due to the concentration of human settlements along the Australian coast, cities are essentially ‘phosphorus hotspots’ from excreta (and food waste). Indeed, urine is the largest single source of phosphorus emerging from cities (Jönsson, 2001). This presents an opportunity for phosphorus recovery from urban sanitation provision and reuse in horticultural fields in peri-urban areas. Indeed, while there are few integrated studies analysing the most optimal means to recover and reuse phosphorus from excreta in the Australia context, water and sanitation service providers will need to treat Australia’s sewage in a way that facilitates both the efficient recovery and reuse of nutrients through energy-efficient and cost-effective means (Cordell, in press). Policy makers Policy makers at the federal, state or local government levels will play an important role in securing a sustainable phosphorus future for Australia through such measures as:
18
•
Initiating dialogue and consensus building between stakeholders;
•
Facilitating or initiating a coordinated response to phosphorus scarcity, including independent
Struvite is ammonium magnesium phosphate crystals high in phosphorus.
44
research; •
Identify key policy priorities for Australia;
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Build in sustainable phosphorus knowledge into relevant educational curriculum, including practical aspects such as school garden that may be fertilised from organic waste produced from urine-diverting toilets and/or food and landscape waste compost.
Possible policy instruments to implement measures: •
Regulatory instruments, such as targets (e.g. recovery of phosphorus from excreta or manure etc.); limits (e.g. discharge limits on phosphorus to sensitive waterways); or bans;
•
Economic incentives such as taxes (e.g. phosphorus tax) or trading scheme (e.g. phosphorus trading scheme in a catchment);
•
Communicative/educational instruments such as stakeholder engagement processes and outreach (e.g. workshops, seminars); developing stakeholder-specific resource material.
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References Bekunda, M., Cordell, D., Corman, J., Rosemarin, R., Salcedo, I., Syers, K. and Lougheed, T. (2010) Phosphorus and Food Production, UNEP Yearbook: Emerging issues in our global environment, 2011. http://www.unep.org/yearbook/2011 Brunner PH: Substance Flow Analysis as a Decision Support Tool for Phosphorus Management. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2010, 14, p.870-873. Cordell, D., Jackson, M. White, S. (2013), Phosphorus flows through the Australian food system: Identifying intervention points as a roadmap to phosphorus security, Environmental Science & Policy, 2(9) 87–102. Cordell, D., Rosemarin, A., Schröder, J.J. and Smit, A.L. (2011) Towards global phosphorus security: A systemic framework for phosphorus recovery and reuse options. Chemosphere, 84(6): p.747-758. Cordell, D. and White, S. (2010), Securing a Sustainable Phosphorus Future for Australia, Farm Policy Journal. 7(3), August 2010, Australian Farm Institute, ISSN: 1449-2210. Cordell, D., Drangert, J.-O. and White, S., (2009a) The Story of Phosphorus: Global food security and food for thought. Global Environmental Change, 2009. 19(2): p. 292-305. Cordell D., Neset T-S. and Prior T. (2012) The phosphorus mass balance: identifying ‘hotspots’ in the food system as a roadmap to phosphorus security, Current Opinion in Biotech, dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.copbio.2012.03.010 Cordell, D., White, S. and Lindstrom, T. (2011) Peak phosphorus: the crunch time for humanity?, The Sustainability Review, 2(2): p.1-1. Cordell, D., White, S., Drangert, J.O. and Neset, T.S.S., (2009b) Preferred future phosphorus scenarios: A framework for meeting long-term phosphorus needs for global food demand. 2009, International Conference on Nutrient Recovery from Wastewater Streams, Vancouver, 10-13th May, 2009. Edited by Don Mavinic, Ken Ashley and Fred Koch. ISBN: 9781843392323. Published by IWA Publishing, London, UK. Global Phosphorus Research Initiative – www.phosphorusfutures.net Kirkegaard and Hunt (2010), Increasing productivity by matching farming system management and genotype in water-limited environments, Journal of Experimental Botany, 61(15): p.4129-4143. McIvor, J.G., Guppy, C. and Probert M. E. (2011), Phosphorus requirements of tropical grazing systems: the northern Australian experience, Plant Soil (2011) 349, p.55–67. Nature (2009), The Disappearing Nutrient, by Natasha Gilbert, NATURE News Feature, October 2009, 461(8): p.716-718, http://www.nature.com/news/2009/091007/full/461716a.html Neset, T.S. and Cordell, D. (eds) (2010), Phosphorus and Global Food Security: A synthesis, International workshop proceedings, Global Phosphorus Research Initiative, Linköping University. http://www.ep.liu.se/ecp_home/index.en.aspx?issue=053 Pellerin S (2011), Designing phosphorus cycle at country scale. European Scientific workshop 2011, July 5th – 6th, 2011, Bordeaux, France: http://www.bordeauxaquitaine.inra.fr/tcem_eng/seminaires_et_colloques/colloques/designing_phosphorus_cycle_at_countr y_scale. 46
Schröder, J.J., Smit, A.L., Cordell, D. and Rosemarin, A. (2011), Improved phosphorus use efficiency in agriculture: a key requirement for its sustainable use. Chemosphere, 84(6): p.822-831. Schröder, J.J., Cordell, D., Smit, A.L. and Rosemarin, A. (2010) Sustainable Use of Phosphorus, prepared for European Union tender project ENV.B.1/ETU/2009/0025. Report 357, Plant Research International, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, 122. Simpson, R., Oberson, A., Culvenor R.A., Ryan, M., Veneklaas, E., Lambers, H, Lynch, J., Ryan, P., Delhaize, E., Smith, A., Smith, S.E, Harvey, P. and Richardson, A. (2011), Strategies and agronomic interventions to improve the phosphorus-use efficiency of farming systems, Plant Soil (2011) 349:89– 120. Tangsubkul N., Moore S., Waite transdisciplinary (2005), Incorporating phosphorus management considerations into wastewater management practice. Environmental Science and Policy 2005, 8, p.1-15. Turner, G. (2011), Australian Stocks & Flows Framework model, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, http://www.csiro.au/resources/StocksAndFlowsFramework Weaver, D.M. and Wong, M.T.F (2011) Scope to improve phosphorus (P) management and balance efficiency of crop and pasture soils with contrasting P status and buffering indices, Plant Soil (2011) 349:37–54. White, S. and Cordell, D. (2008), The Future of Phosphorus: Implications of Global Fertiliser Scarcity for Australia, National stakeholder workshop,14th November 2008, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, Sydney, see: www.phosphorusfutures.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=23&Itemid=36#Future_ of_Phosphorus_workshop White, S., Cordell, D. and Moore, D. (2010), Securing a sustainable phosphorus future for Australia: implications of global phosphorus scarcity and possible solutions, Review prepared by the Institute for Sustainable Futures, for CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship.
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Australian sustainable phosphorus futures: Phase 1 By Dr Dana Cordell, Melissa Jackson, Louise Boronyak, Chris Cooper, Dr Steve Mohr, Dustin Moore, Monique Retamal and Professor Stuart White Pub. No. 14/038
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