AUSTRALIAN SEA LEVEL RISE PARTNERSHIP: CLIMATE CHANGE & SEA LEVEL RISE IN AUSTRALIA FINAL SYNTHESIS REPORT The Global Change Institute The University of Queensland

FOREWORD THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT AUSTRALIA’S ABILITY TO COPE WITH THE CHALLENGES OF THE COMING DECADES WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON ITS ABILITY TO MAINTAIN AND DEVELOP RESEARCH CAPACITY. Under previous Federal governments, Australia has invested significantly in promoting, developing, and retaining excellence in research. The Super Science Fellowships announced in Autumn of 2010 formed an important plank in terms of investing in young Australian scientists. We were fortunate at the Global Change Institute to attract 5 of the 100 Super Science Fellowships released across Australia. Given our interest in tackling complex, intertwined issues, the Institute decided to focus two of our applications (in rounds 1 and 2) on the challenge of sea level rise, putting in place a talented group of Chief Investigators (CIs) and Postdoctoral Fellows from fields as diverse as coastal geography, biology, economics, business, and law (see schematic on this page and Boxes 1 & 2). The geographical focal points of the two applications were Southeast Queensland and Australia’s tropical islands. Both of these regions are particularly challenged by rising sea levels from the burning of fossil fuels, and the associated challenges associated with storm surge and wave impacts.

SUPER SCIENCE SEA LEVEL PROGRAM Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (GCI, UQ) Costal Ecosystems and Climate Change Professor Pete Mumby (UQ) Coral Reefs and Climate Change Professor Colin D. Woodroffe (UOW) Coastal Geomorphology

CIs

Professor Cath Lovelock (UQ) Physiology/Ecology or Marine Plants

ROUND 1

Professor Stuart R. Phinn (UQ) Remote Sensing and Coastal Geography Professor John Church (CSIRO) - Non CI Australian Sea Level Projections Postdoctoral Fellow 1 Coastal Geomorphology Postdoctoral Fellow 2 Coastal Ecosystems and Sea Level Rise

Postdocs (extended by 1 year, UQ)

Postdoctoral Fellow 3 Natural Resource Management Postdoctoral Fellow 4 Economics/Infrastructure

Postdocs

Postdoctoral Fellow 5 Coastal Policy/Governance Professor Hugh Possingham (UQ) Decision Support/Conservation Planning

ROUND 2

Professor John C. Quiggin (UQ) Natural Resource Economics Dr Tiffany Morrison (UQ) Urban Planning Professor Andrew Griffiths (UQ) Adaptive Business Strategies Professor Sarah C. Derrington Maritime Law

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CIs

SEVERAL HIGHLIGHTS REFLECT THE SUCCESS OF THE PROJECT: • Five excellent young researchers were involved, pursuing research across a number of key areas. • More than 20 important peerreviewed publications and books addressing the challenges of rapid anthropogenic sea level rise for Australia were produced (with more in preparation or review). Publications appeared in highimpact journals such as Nature Climate Change and Global Change Biology.

• To date, three of the postdoctoral research fellows associated with the project have ‘graduated’ to continuous academic appointments, indicating both the quality of the young researchers, and that involvement in the project allowed them to further their careers. • The project brought together a large number of collaborators (as evident from the multiple authors on papers) from within The University of Queensland, as well as institutions such as CSIRO, Wollongong

University and James Cook University. In this regard, it involved four ARC Federation/Laureate Fellows and a Queensland Premier’s Fellow, and Project Leader Shay O’Farrell at the GCI, between 2010 and 2014. • Overall, the project proved that tackling issues such as sea level rise is best done as a multidisciplinary exercise, as opposed to taking individual perspectives from participant fields.

I hope you enjoy reading this report, which summarises the tremendous success and outcomes of this important project. In this regard, the research team is grateful to the Australian Research Council and The University of Queensland for its ongoing support of this important project for Australia’s future. Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg Director, Global Change Institute ARC Laureate Fellow

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FOUR OUT OF FIVE AUSTRALIANS LIVE WITHIN FIFTY KILOMETRES OF THE COASTLINE AND THE POPULATION ALONG COASTAL AUSTRALIA IS RAPIDLY INCREASING. With sea levels anticipated to rise rapidly in the coming decades, these coastal communities are under serious threat, but the threats posed by Sea Level Rise (SLR) are complex and interlinked, and the need to understand and manage them may be even more urgent than previously thought (Cazenave et al., 2014). Compounding the impacts of higher sea levels, extreme events such as cyclones and storm surges will also affect the coast: SLR and associated climate change impacts will cause the shape and character of coasts to change in unprecedented ways. Despite this looming threat to the natural ecosystems and coastal infrastructure of Australia, local, state and federal governments have struggled to develop appropriate policy responses. In response to the issue of SLR, the Global Change Institute (GCI) at The

University of Queensland assembled a multi-disciplinary research team (Boxes 1 & 2) to investigate and communicate the consequences of SLR for Australia, and to develop adaptation strategies. The Australian Sea Level Rise Partnership (ASLRP) was a collaborative effort that ran from 2010–2014 and brought together experts in geomorphology, engineering, coastal ecology, conservation and urban planning, sustainability and human geography, business and economics, policy and law. The overarching aim of ASLRP was to significantly advance Australia’s capacity to minimise the impacts of gradually rising seas and extreme sea level events (such as storm surge) on the country’s coastal ecosystems and infrastructure, and human communities. Research findings come from two study sites in Queensland that represent specific coastal environments that are at risk

from SLR: tropical islands (Lizard Island) and urbanised coastal environments (Moreton Bay). Scenarios of SLR used (0.5 to 1.2 m above 1990 levels by 2100) were within the range widely accepted by the scientific community to be plausible (see page 10). The results from both study sites have been brought together in a series of policy recommendations and synthesis papers, with the hope that they will be applicable to Australia as a whole. Funding from The Australian Research Council (ARC) for two ARC Super Science Fund Fellowships supported the ASLRP activities, which for the purposes of this report are grouped into eight overlapping research themes.

This report outlines the major results of the Partnership, detailing the key policy and management recommendations, achievements and outputs, and publications produced using the collective results of each research theme. These themes were:

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.

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Reliable data at a range of spatial scales Changing hydrodynamic conditions on coral reefs Impacts of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems Impacts of sea level rise on businesses Planning policy and law for sea level rise Preparing to adapt to sea level rise Insurance and the cost of sea level rise Using adaptive planning to tackle uncertainty

POLICY AND MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS THE FOLLOWING RECOMMENDATIONS ARE GROUPED ACCORDING TO THE RESEARCH THEMES THEY RELATE TO. THEY ARE INTENDED FOR USE BY PLANNERS AND POLICY MAKERS, AS WELL AS SCIENTISTS INVOLVED IN CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS. DATA, INFORMATION AND MODELLING (THEMES 1, 2 & 4) • Probability of risk and data reliability (i.e., fitness-for-use) should be communicated to stakeholders to aid climate change adaptation. • Local data must be collected, because the impacts of SLR will vary from place to place. • Social (e.g., urban growth) and ecological (e.g., ecosystem migration) models should be integrated to better inform policy-makers of the likely impacts of SLR and adaptation. • Effort should be made to incorporate the best available information on climate change impacts into business strategies for climate change adaptation.

ECOSYSTEMS (THEMES 2 & 3) • Governments should invest resources into reducing local stressors (e.g., improve water quality) to ecosystems to help those ecosystems adapt to climate change. • Ecosystems should be managed holistically, to account for feedback mechanisms and interdependencies between ecosystems. • Buffer zones need to be built into some coastal areas to allow coastal habitats to migrate inshore as sea levels rise.

PLANNING AND THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT (THEMES 5–8) • Coastal retreat in strategic areas needs to be facilitated to allow for ecosystems to migrate, and options for retreat should be explored for both new and existing developments. • Where engineering solutions are to be used to defend against the impacts of SLR, soft engineering solutions should be used if they can promote ecosystem persistence. • Applying strategic planning approaches will ensure that both social and ecological goals are met in the most cost-effective manner. Strategic planning should occur at an early stage, and be based on the most up-to-date information available concerning climate change projections. • The burden of adaptation should be shared between local, state and central governments, but the adaptation options implemented should be context-specific and appropriate to the local area. • Planning laws and policies should adopt a flexible approach to allow proposals and developments to be altered in line with scientific developments.

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WHO IS IN THE ASLRP TEAM? SUPER SCIENCE POSTDOCTORAL FELLOWS Two ARC Super Science Fellowships1 supported the five Super Science postdoctoral fellows listed on this page, who were guided in their research by a team of ten Chief Investigators (an internationally-respected group that included four ARC Federation/ Laureate Fellows and a Queensland Smart State Premier’s Fellow) and Project Leader Shay O’Farrell at the GCI between 2011 and 2014. The Partnership also benefitted from the input of members of the GCI’s College of Experts and other academics. A full list of ASLRP research associates is given on page 7 and the lead post-doctoral researchers for each theme are given in bold in the personnel sections.

DR JUSTINE BELL

DR JAVIER X. LEON

Justine’s background is in environmental and planning law. She completed her Bachelor of Laws and PhD at the Queensland University of Technology, and for her PhD examined how information on environmental laws can be more effectively managed to promote sustainability. Justine’s work at the GCI considers how law can be effectively used to facilitate sea level rise adaptation.

Javier applies geospatial techniques to the study of coastal geomorphology. He completed an MSc in Coastal Geomorphology at The University of Canterbury in 2005 and received a doctoral degree from The University of Wollongong in 2010. His PhD thesis mapped the geomorphology of coral reefs in the Torres Strait. Javier’s work at the GCI focuses on the elaboration and analysis of digital terrain models and geomorphic mapping, particularly applied to coral reefs and sandy beaches.

DR MORENA MILLS

DR KONAR MUTAFOGLU

DR MEGAN I. SAUNDERS

Morena’s research to date has considered how spatial planning can better inform day-to-day resource management decisions. She completed her Bachelor of Marine Studies at The University of Queensland and her PhD in Conservation Planning at James Cook University in 2009, where she studied the means for minimising the gap between planning and implementation of environmental projects. At present, Morena’s research focuses on multi-objective strategic planning for a changing coastal zone.

Konar is an environmental economist interested in bringing insights from the economist’s perspective to natural resources management and sustainable development. Konar received a doctoral degree from Berlin University of Technology, Germany, in 2009, where his research addressed the impacts of climate change and periodic water shortages on industrial firms and their adaptation strategies. Konar joined the GCI in 2012 and looks at how businesses and households perceive and manage extreme weather events.

Megan is a marine ecologist and oceanographer interested in the effects of human stressors, including climate change, on the oceans. She completed her PhD in Biological Oceanography at Dalhousie University in 2009, where she studied outbreak dynamics of invasive species in kelp beds. Megan joined the Global Change Institute in January 2011 and her current research focuses on the responses of coastal ecosystems to sea level rise.

www.gpem.uq.edu.au/morenamills

www.gci.uq.edu.au/researchers/ dr-konar-mutafoglu

www.law.uq.edu.au/academicstaff/staff.php?nm=justinebell

www.gpem.uq.edu.au/javierleon-patino

www.marinespatialecologylab.org/ people/megan-saunders

Fellowship 1: Treading water in a changing climate. Fellowship 2: Defend or retreat? Adapting to the impacts of sea level rise as a result of rapid climate change.

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RESEARCH ASSOCIATES ASLRP Associates

Institution/Website

Role

Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg*/**

School of Biological Sciences, UQ/GCI Director www.gci.uq.edu.au/staff/professor-ove-hoegh-guldberg

ARC Super Science Chief Investigator

Professor Andrew Griffiths

UQ Business School/GCI Deputy Director www.business.uq.edu.au/staff/andrew-griffiths

ARC Super Science Chief Investigator

Professor Hugh Possingham***

School of Mathematics & Physics, and Biological Sciences, UQ/GCI Researcher www.possinghamlab.org

ARC Super Science Chief Investigator

Professor Pete Mumby*

School of Biological Sciences, UQ/GCI Researcher www.marinespatialecologylab.org/people/peter-mumby

ARC Super Science Chief Investigator

Professor Colin D. Woodroffe

School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong http://smah.uow.edu.au/sees/UOW002960.html

ARC Super Science Chief Investigator

Professor Stuart R. Phinn

School of Geography Planning and Environmental Management, UQ www.gpem.uq.edu.au/stuart-phinn

ARC Super Science Chief Investigator

Professor John C. Quiggin*/***

School of Economics, UQ/GCI College of Experts www.uq.edu.au/economics/quiggin-john

ARC Super Science Chief Investigator

Professor Sarah C. Derrington

TC Beirne School of Law, UQ www.law.uq.edu.au/academic-staff/staff. php?nm=sarahderrington

ARC Super Science Chief Investigator

Professor Cath Lovelock

School of Biological Sciences, UQ/GCI Researcher http://researchers.uq.edu.au/researcher/1430

ARC Super Science Chief Investigator

Dr Tiffany Morrison

School of Geography Planning and Environmental Management, UQ www.gpem.uq.edu.au/tiffany-morrison

ARC Super Science Chief Investigator

Dr Andrew Kythreotis

School of Planning and Geography, Cardiff University

ARC Super Science Postdoctoral Fellow (June 2011-March 2012)

Professor Bob Pressey

ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University

Collaborator

Professor John Church

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research

Collaborator

Professor Tom Baldock

School of Civil Engineering, UQ/GCI College of Experts

Collaborator

Dr Chris Brown

GCI Researcher

Collaborator

Dr Sarah Hamylton

School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong

Collaborator

Dr Carissa Klein

ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, UQ

Collaborator

Dr Martina Linnenluecke

UQ Business School/GCI Researcher

Collaborator

Dr Chris Roelfsema

School of Geography Planning and Environmental Management, UQ

Collaborator

Dr David Callagham

School of Civil Engineering

Collaborator

*ARC Laureate Fellow ** Queensland Premier’s Fellow *** ARC Federation Fellow

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GLOSSARY

AND ESSENTIAL CONCEPTS

ADAPTIVE SPATIAL PLANNING

Within the context of natural resource management, spatial planning is the process by which resource use and management is allocated to specific areas to achieve ecological, economic and social objectives. The process becomes adaptive when original, static spatial plans are updated and refined, and become active documents i.e., are adjusted and made more relevant, in response to improved understanding, new data or other factors.

BATHYMETRY

While originally a term that referred to the depth of the ocean relative to sea level, bathymetry has come to refer to the depths and shapes of underwater terrain and can be considered the underwater equivalent of ‘topography’. Bathymetric maps illustrate in three dimensions the land that lies underwater, with depth contours (or isobaths) depicting variations in sea-floor relief.

CORAL REEF CALCIFICATION

The deposition of a matrix of calcium carbonate (aragonite) by corals and other reef organisms, including coralline algae.

ECOSYTEM MIGRATION

In the context of marine ecosystems such as mangrove forests, saltmarsh and seagrass meadows, ecosystem migration refers to the potential for such ecosystems to shift into newly available regions, as a response to stressors (e.g., into shoreline areas inundated as a result of sea level rise).

GEOMORPHOLOGY

The study of the physical features of the surface of the earth (landforms) and the processes that shape them. Geomorphologists – who are linked to the fields of physical geography, geology and archaeology, among others – use a combination of field observations, physical experiments and modelling to determine, for example, why landscapes look the way they do and to predict changes.

GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS)

A computer system designed to capture, store, manipulate, analyse, manage, and present all types of spatial or geographical data.

MANAGED RETREAT

The realignment of the coast by allowing an area that was not previously exposed to flooding by the sea to become flooded by removing coastal protection or development. It can be used as a means to prevent ecosystems from being squeezed between development and rising seas.

REMOTE SENSING

The use of aerial sensor technologies to acquire information about an object or phenomenon without making physical contact, instead making use of propagated signals that may be passive (e.g., sunlight) or active (e.g., emitted from a satellite).

SATELLITE ALTIMETRY

A method used to determine the distance from a satellite to a target surface, involving emission of radar waves to Earth and analysis of the return signals that bounce of the surface. Data that can be generated through satellite altimetry include sea-surface height and wind speed, and these data can be used in models of other features of global climate variation.

STORM SURGE

A coastal flood phenomenon of rising water commonly associated with low pressure weather systems such as tropical cyclones. The severity of a storm surge is affected by the depth and orientation of the water body relative to the storm path and the timing of tides.

SYSTEMATIC CONSERVATION PLANNING

An explicit framework for locating and designing actions in time and space to promote explicit objectives, including – but not exclusive to – the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of natural resources.

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OVERVIEW

AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO SEA LEVEL RISE RESEARCH

Rising sea level is a complex process that will affect both humans and the natural environment. As such, it requires a coordinated, interdisciplinary, approach that considers the numerous, interconnected, impacts and the responses of the natural and human world. The ASLRP team developed projects at two sites – Moreton Bay in Southeast Queensland and Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef – to answer some of the vital questions around sea level rise and adaptation. All projects involved coordinated data collection, modelling, use of decision-making tools,

and assessment of the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies, which will ultimately available to support policy development The team collected data on water depth, land elevation, distribution of marine habitats, land use and environmental conditions such as water clarity and waves at a variety of spatial scales, capturing local and regional variation. These datasets were then used to model the likelihood of inundation of land and the migration or adaptation of valuable coastal habitats such as seagrass, coral and mangroves. Data regarding the costs

and benefits of various adaptation options were also collected and used to assess different strategic planning scenarios to allow the effectiveness of various adaptation actions to be determined. Using the results of the biophysical studies, as well as those of the analyses of policy and institutional data, policy recommendations were formulated (Figure 1). Due to the broadly overlapping nature of much of the work, certain recommendations are supported by the research findings of more than one theme and are therefore listed multiple times.

Figure 1: Schematic of the process undertaken by the ASLRP team to plan for sea level rise (SLR). Initially, the spatial data was collected and models were processed independently. Impacts and trade-offs between different SLR adaptation strategies were assessed by combining models using geographic information system (GIS) and systematic planning software. Finally, recommendations were made as to how management and policy should be adapted.

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THEME 1:

RELIABLE DATA AT A RANGE OF SPATIAL SCALES



ASLRP PERSONNEL

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Javier Leon, Sarah Hamylton, Stuart Phinn, Chris Roelfsema, Megan Saunders, Colin Woodroffe, Dave Callaghan.

• Probability of risk and data reliability (i.e., fitness-for-use) should be communicated to stakeholders to aid climate change adaptation. • Local data must be collected, because the impacts of SLR will vary from place to place. • Social (e.g., urban growth) and ecological (e.g., ecosystem migration) models should be integrated to better inform policy-makers of the likely impacts of SLR and adaptation.

RESEARCH OVERVIEW Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most certain impacts of climate change and it threatens an ever-growing number of industries, settlements and ecosystems. Changes in sea level occur due to warming of the planet, which leads to water stored as ice on land being released into the oceans, and rising sea temperature, which causes thermal expansion (Rahmstorf, 2007, NCCARF, 2009, IPCC, 2007). Studies of the Australian coastline estimate that the average rate of rise was 1.2 mm per year between 1920 and 2000 (Church et al., 2006). Experts forecast that under current emission projections the rate of SLR will accelerate in the coming decade. According to the latest Assessment Report (AR5), global mean SLR for 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 will likely be in the range of 0.26–0.55 m under RCP2.6 (one of the four scenarios used by the IPCC to model future climate changes, where greenhouse gas concentrations are lowest) and 0.52–0.98 m under RCP8.5 (the future climate scenario with the

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highest greenhouse gas concentration). It is possible that these estimates are low, however, and a widely accepted semi-empirical approach developed by Rahmstorf (2007) suggests a possible maximum rise of 1.2 m by 2100. Accelerating SLR has the potential to increase coastal inundation and may lead to permanent flooding of lowlying coastal areas. Coastal erosion is also likely to increase as extremely high sea levels, driven by events such as cyclones and storms, increase in frequency and magnitude. However, observed and modelled SLR rates are highly variable (Figure 2), as are the resulting regional and local impacts on the coastal zone. ASLRP research addressed these issues of variability in observed and modelled SLR rates, and the need for policymakers to be informed of the possible extent and timing of coastal inundation and associated hazards across the study region. However, as errors are inherent to spatial data and modelling, the team also addressed the issue of

uncertainty and the need to effectively communicate the uncertainty level to scientists, decision-makers and at-risk populations. A key achievement of the team was the development of a probabilistic approach to modelling coastal inundation, thereby addressing the issues of error and uncertainty. The notion of reliable data was also considered for Moreton Bay seagrass habitats: attempts at making quantitative comparisons have been hampered by lack of data or differences in mapping approaches. The ASLRP team reviewed relevant datasets and methods to assess their suitability for monitoring and quantifying change in seagrass percentage cover and extent, which is driven by a number of factors including SLR.

KEY OUTPUTS • Compilation of crucial datasets including seamless above and underwater elevation, geomorphic and ecosystem distribution maps and population, infrastructure and waterlevel models (e.g. digital elevation model for Lizard Island, Figure 3).

• Novel maps describing the probability of flooding. • A novel method for quantifying coral reef roughness, a key parameter for wave propagation models and monitoring of coral reef health.

• A set of guidelines for marine ecologists and managers who seek to use wave models or time series of remotely sensed data for monitoring changes in seagrass distribution.

PUBLICATIONS LEON, J. X. & WOODROFFE, C. D. 2013. Morphological characterisation of reef types in Torres Strait and an assessment of their carbonate production. Marine Geology, 338, 64-75. LEON, J. X., AND C. D. WOODROFFE. 2014. Classification of coral reef types in Torres Strait (GIS files). In Pangaea. LEON, J. X., PHINN, S. R., HAMYLTON, S. & SAUNDERS, M. I. 2012a. A 20 m spatial resolution deamless multisource Digital Elevation/Depth Model for Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef. Pangaea. LEON, J. X., PHINN, S. R., HAMYLTON, S. M. & SAUNDERS, M. I. 2013b. Filling the ‘white ribbon’ – a multisource seamless digital elevation model for Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 1-18.

Figure 2: Sea level rise from 1993–2011 in the Australian region. Data were derived from satellite altimetry and were all relative sea levels. From Church et al. (2012).

LEON, J. X., ROELFSEMA, C. M., SAUNDERS, M. I. & PHINN, S. R. In revision-a. Measuring coral reef terrain roughness using ‘Structure-fromMotion’ close-range photogrammetry. Geomorphology. LEON, J. X., G. B. M. HEUVELINK, AND S. R. PHINN. 2014. Incorporating DEM Uncertainty in Coastal Inundation Mapping. PLoS ONE 9 (9):e108727. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0108727. ROELFSEMA, C., KOVACS, E. M., SAUNDERS, M. I., PHINN, S., LYONS, M. B. & MAXWELL, P. 2013. Challenges of remote sensing for quantifiying changes in large complex seagrass environments. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 133, 161-171.

Figure 3: 3D visualisation of a Digital Elevation/Depth Model for Lizard Island produced using data from Leon et al. (2012a), with 5 x´ vertical exaggeration.

CALLAGHAN, D. P., J. X. LEON, AND M. I. SAUNDERS. In revision. Wave modelling as a proxy for seagrass ecological modelling: comparing fetch and processbased predictions for a bay and reef lagoon. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science.

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THEME 2:

CHANGING HYDRODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ON CORAL REEFS

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Javier Leon, Megan Saunders, Tom Baldock, Chris Brown, Sarah Hamylton, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Cath Lovelock, Pete Mumby, Chris Roelfsema, Colin Woodroffe, Dave Callaghan

• Local data must be collected, because the impacts of SLR will vary from place to place. • Ecosystems should be managed holistically, to account for feedback mechanisms and interdependencies between ecosystems.

RESEARCH OVERVIEW Coral reefs are highly effective at dissipating wave energy and they therefore provide an important ecosystem service by protecting highly valued shorelines. The effectiveness of coral reef flats to dissipate this energy, in addition to inducing the waves to break, is related to the roughness of the bottom substrate. ASLRP research aimed to identify some of the ways in which changes in water depth, reef structure and roughness may affect coral reefs and adjacent habitats. At Lizard Island, assessment of the implications of changes in water depth over coral reefs on their suitability for, and rate of, coral growth was made using simulations of reef platform response to SLR. Two scenarios of SLR were assessed (0.5 m or 1.2 m by 2100) for different reef platform types at Lizard Island (e.g., shallow, deep, coral or sand dominated), and the assessments made use of the digital elevation model (DEM) outlined in Theme 1. Changes in water depth due to SLR will also modify the wave energy impacting coastal areas, further modifying the ability of coral reef to grow, so the ASLRP team also assessed the relationship between coral reef flat community carbonate production and wave energy through space. They also aimed to improve understanding of how deepening water over the coral reef as a result of SLR and/or reef degradation might affect adjacent ecosystems.

Two key achievements were discovering the variation in reef platform response to two SLR scenarios and extending our understanding of reef flat community calcium carbonate production and its relationship with wave energy, which is predicted to vary as a result of climate change and SLR. A further key achievement was showing that increases in the height and period of waves traversing the coral reef will reduce the suitability of lagoon environments for establishment and growth of seagrass. In turn, this may have negative effects on coral reefs.

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ASLRP PERSONNEL

KEY OUTPUTS • Model simulations indicating that shallow, coral-dominated reef platforms were able to keep up with the SLR rate of 0.5 m for the entire simulation period of 2011–2100. However, platform areas dominated by sand became progressively deeper by the end of the century. For the 1.2 m simulation, the whole platform initially kept up with the rise but began to drown at around midcentury (Figure 4).

• A wave energy threshold (corresponding to a seabed orbital velocity of approximately 0.55 ms-1 or an energy density of 300 J m-2 yr-1) was identified, below which carbonate production levels of coral reef communities appeared to increase. Above this threshold, however, mechanical forcing reduced coral reef community production of carbonate, reducing the ability of the coral reef platform to grow.

• Related to the previous point is the finding that changes in wave energy due to SLR will not be spatially uniform across coral reef environments, and will vary in ways that depend on the morphology of the reef, including the depth and width of the reef flat.

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PUBLICATIONS BALDOCK, T. E., GOLSHANI, A., CALLAGHAN, D., SAUNDERS, M. I. & MUMBY, P. J. 2014. Impact of sea-level rise and coral mortality on the wave dynamics and wave forces on barrier reefs. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 83, 155-164. HAMYLTON, S. M., PESCUD, A., LEON, J. X. & CALLAGHAN, D. P. 2013. A geospatial assessment of the relationship between reef flat community calcium carbonate production and wave energy. Coral Reefs, 32, 1025-1039. HAMYLTON, S. M., LEON, J. X., SAUNDERS, M. I. & WOODROFFE, C. D. 2014. Simulating reef response to sea-level rise at Lizard Island: a geospatial approach. Geomorphology. DOI: 10.1016/ geomorph.2014.03.006. 222, 151161. LEON, J. X., BALDOCK, T. E., CALLAGHAN, D. P., HOEGHGULDBERG, O., MUMBY, P., PHINN, S. R., ROELFSEMA, C. M. & SAUNDERS, M. I. 2013a. Impact Of Coral Structures On Wave Propagation Across A Shallow Reef Flat – Lizard Island, Northern Great Barrier Reef. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco.

Figure 4: Simulated reef platform bathymetry under a sea-level rise scenario of 1.2 m above 1990 levels by 2100. As with a 0.5 m scenario, the reef flat is colonised by corals within a shorter timeframe, however, they cannot keep up with the pace of sea-level rise and the reef platform begins to drown at approximately 2050. From Hamylton et al. (2014).

SAUNDERS, M. I., BALDOCK, T. E., BROWN, C. J., CALLAGHAN, D. P., GOLSHANI, A., HAMYLTON, S. M., HOEGH-GULDBERG, O., LEON, J. X., LOVELOCK, C. E., MUMBY, P. J., PHINN, S. R., ROELFSEMA, C. M. & WOODROFFE, C. D. 2014. Interdependency of tropical marine ecosystems in response to climate change. Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2274. 4(8), 724-729.

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THEME 3:

IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Megan Saunders, Morena Mills, Tom Baldock, Justine Bell, Chris Brown, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Carissa Klein, Javier Leon, Cath Lovelock, Tiffany Morrison, Pete Mumby, Konar Mutafoglu, Stuart Phinn, Hugh Possingham

• Governments should invest resources into reducing local stressors (e.g., improve water quality) to ecosystems to help those ecosystems adapt to climate change. • Ecosystems should be managed holistically, to account for feedback mechanisms and interdependencies between ecosystems. • Buffer zones need to be built into coastal areas to allow coastal habitats to migrate inshore as sea levels rise.

RESEARCH OVERVIEW Ecosystems such as mangroves, saltmarsh, seagrass meadows and coral reefs exist close to, or at, the surface of the sea in coastal zones. These key habitats perform a range of important functions, including providing nursery areas for fisheries species, shoreline stabilisation, and carbon sequestration from the atmosphere. As sea levels rise, the distribution of these habitats will change. Responses will include landward migration, loss at the deep edge, and vertical accretion (i.e., deposition of carbonate or sediment leading to upwards growth of a coral reef) to maintain position at the sea surface. Predicting changes in distribution due to SLR, both alone, and in combination with other stressors, is essential for managing these important habitats. It is equally important to consider the interactions between ecosystems when predicting the effects of SLR on coastal habitats. The vast seagrass meadows of Moreton Bay, the ASLRP study site in Southeast Queensland, are a vital food source for sea turtles and dugongs, but are exposed to multiple stressors associated with a large and rapidly expanding human population. ASLRP researchers quantified the interactive effects of SLR and two of these stressors (water clarity and land use) by combining a habitat distribution model and bathymetric data. Further work on interactions focused more closely on management implications, using seagrass as a representative ecosystem in an effort to understand how the effects of climate change interact with local (and manageable) stressors. Key achievements of the team included applying the SLR inundation model to show that a sea level rise of 1.1 m will result in an overall decline of the abundance of seagrass and other coastal ecosystems in Moreton Bay between 2000 and 2100 (Figure 5: closed circles). However, with a management scenario where impervious surfaces are removed in inundated areas (Figure 5: open circles), this decline can be mitigated. The team also successfully integrated spatial models of inundation by SLR, urban growth and ecosystem migration, thereby establishing that seagrass meadows could migrate into areas of Moreton Bay currently occupied by mangroves in coming decades (Figure 6).

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KEY OUTPUTS • Models of predicted change in coastal ecosystem distribution in response to different SLR scenarios. • Evidence of interdependency in response to climate change at the ecosystem level, whereby the response of one ecosystem to a change in sea level affects how another ecosystem responds. Through their study at Lizard Island, ASLRP researchers determined that the capacity of a coral reef to accrete vertically in response to change in sea level may influence the persistence of seagrass inshore. The percentage of current seagrass

habitat suitable for seagrass in the future was found to be strongly dependent on whether coral reefs grew (‘accreted’) in response to rising seas (Figure 7). • Cumulative impact (CI) maps that identify the spatial distribution of multiple human impacts to species and ecosystems. The team showed that while CI maps typically assume no interactive effects, this can lead to incorrect identification of sites for management and highlighted the need for interactions to be considered if CI maps are to be used to inform management strategies.

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Figure 5: Effect of predicted 1.1 m sea level rise by 2100 on the abundance of seagrass in Moreton Bay: Percentage of seagrass habitat in 2100 relative to 2000. Seagrass loss is predicted to be higher if establishment in newly inundated areas is restricted by existing coastal development. The upturn in relative area after 2090 in the unrestricted scenario is caused by shoreline geometry, where a threshold sea level height is reached and then inundation of landward areas increases. From Saunders et al. (2013).

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Figure 6: Maps of ecosystem change in Moreton Bay as a result of sea-level rise of a) 0.44 m and b) 1.23 m to 2100. Stripes indicate inundated areas. From Mills et al. In review-b.

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PUBLICATIONS BROWN, C. J., SAUNDERS, M. I., POSSINGHAM, H. P. & RICHARDSON, A. J. 2013a. Interactions between global and local stressors of ecosystems determine management effectiveness in cumulative impact mapping. Diversity and Distributions, 20(5), 538–546. BROWN, C. J., SAUNDERS, M. I., POSSINGHAM, H. P. & RICHARDSON, A. J. 2013b. Managing for interactions between local and global stressors of ecosystems. PLOS ONE, 8, e65765. MILLS, M., SAUNDERS, M. I., LEON, J. X., BELL, J., LIU, Y., O’MARA, J., LOVELOCK, C. E., MUMBY, P. J., PHINN, S., POSSINGHAM, H. P., TULLOCH, V., MUTAFOGLU, K., MORRISON, T., CALLAGHAN, D., BALDOCK, T. E., KLEIN, C. & HOEGH-GUELBERG, O. In review-b. Reconciling development and conservation under coastal squeeze from rising sea-level.

Figure 7: Relative (%) area of seagrass-suitable habitat in years 2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100, compared with present day, based on changes to the wave environment resulting from a range of sea-level rise and coral reef accretion scenarios (null accretion in seagrass). From Saunders et al. (2014).

SAUNDERS, M. I., LEON, J. X., PHINN, S. R., CALLAGHAN, D. P., O’BRIEN, K. R., ROELFSEMA, C. M., LOVELOCK, C. E., LYONS, M. B. & MUMBY, P. J. 2013. Coastal retreat and improved water quality mitigate losses of seagrass from sea level rise. Global Change Biology, 19, 2569-2583. SAUNDERS, M. I., BALDOCK, T. E., BROWN, C. J., CALLAGHAN, D. P., GOLSHANI, A., HAMYLTON, S. M., HOEGH-GULDBERG, O., LEON, J. X., LOVELOCK, C. E., MUMBY, P. J., PHINN, S. R., ROELFSEMA, C. M. & WOODROFFE, C. D. 2014. Interdependency of tropical marine ecosystems in response to climate change. Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2274. 4(8), 724-729.

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THEME 4:

IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON BUSINESSES

KEY RECOMMENDATION

Konar Mutafoglu, Andrew Griffiths, Martina Linnenluecke

• Effort should be made to incorporate the best available information on climate change impacts into business strategies for climate change adaptation.

RESEARCH OVERVIEW Firms and industries will have a central role to play in supporting societal adaptation to the physical impacts of climate change (including SLR), especially in more directly affected sectors such as transportation, tourism and construction. In this context, adaptation is defined as supporting responses that allow for adjustments in managing and responding to actual or expected physical impacts and risks of climate change in affected sectors. Whether individuals and organizations take proactive action against sea level rise depends in part on how they perceive climate related risks but the ability of business to adapt in this way would affect future profits, competitive advantage and, in some cases, business survival. ASLRP studies aimed to clarify how companies currently perceive climate risks and the nature of current adaptation practices. A key achievement was a study of 125 publicly-listed top Australian companies, which showed that exposure to a large number of weather extremes in recent years has moved climate change adaptation onto the business agenda. However, the team also found that climate risks are not yet fully understood: the majority of executives surveyed believed that SLR will remain below 0.6 m over the 21st century (Table 3), while the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report warns that sea levels could in fact rise by nearly 1 m by the end of the century (Church et al. 2013). Further key achievements were finding that accurate spatial data (see Theme 1; Figure 8) is crucial in the context of the point above, so that business executives are able to use it as a basis for business development and strategic planning, and establishing that action on climate change is slow because it is perceived as a slow-moving target without immediate impact by business and decision-makers. This is due, in part to the cost of building or upgrading infrastructure (e.g., building sea walls, raising foundations). An ongoing project is focused on understanding water companies’ response to climate change impacts.

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KEY OUTPUT • A review of studies on business adaptation to climate change, which found that business focus currently rests on how firms can adjust to changing business conditions, such as the emergence of new competitors or markets, or changed political, economic and legal conditions. The changing dynamics of the natural environment is currently not the focus of business adaptation.

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Table 3: Business executives’ perception of the likelihood of scenarios for climate change related sea level rise, until the end of the 21st century. From ASX500 Climate Change Adaptation Project (Linnenluecke, 2013).

Possible Scenario

Frequency

Percent

Cumulative Percent

0.18 m

29

23.2

23.2

0.26 m

16

12.8

36

0.38 m

14

11.2

47.2

0.48 m

11

8.8

56

0.59 m

8

6.4

62.4

1m

22

17.6

80

2m

11

8.8

88.8

No sea level rise due to climate change

5

4

92.8

9

7.2

100

125

100

Don’t know TOTAL

Figure 8: Probability inundation map for a scenario combining a 2.9 m 100 Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) storm surge event over a 1 m SLR. The fat solid black line represents the deterministic bathtubderived inundation. The thin solid line shows the area that has a 577 probability greater than 1% to become inundated. Orthophoto mosaic provided by Nearmap. From Leon et al. (In revision-b).

PUBLICATIONS LEON, J. X., HEUVELINK, G. B. M. & PHINN, S. R. In revision-b. Incorporating DEM uncertainty in coastal inundation mapping. PLOS ONE. 9(9), e108727. LINNENLUECKE, M. K. 2013. Variations in decision makers’ use of climate change information sources and impacts on business adaptation choices. 1st European Climate Change Adaptation Conference Hamburg, Germany. LINNENLUECKE, M. K., GRIFFITHS, A. & WINN, M. I. 2013. Firm and industry adaptation to climate change: a review of climate adaptation studies in the business and management field. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change.

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THEME 5:

PLANNING POLICY AND LAW FOR SEA LEVEL RISE

KEY RECOMMENDATION

Justine Bell, Morena Mills, Tom Baldock, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Carissa Klein, Javier Leon, Cath Lovelock, Tiffany Morrison, Pete Mumby, Konar Mutafoglu, Stuart Phinn, Hugh Possingham, John Quiggin, Megan Saunders

The burden of adaptation should be shared between local, state and central governments, but the adaptation options implemented should be context-specific and appropriate to the local area.

RESEARCH OVERVIEW The majority of planning decisions related to SLR adaptation are made at the local government level. However, from a policy perspective, federal, state and local governments all have a role to play in the process of adaptation. It is crucial that all levels of government develop and adopt effective and integrated SLR policies for both existing and future conditions, drawing on the accumulating wealth of scientific knowledge and spatial data. Coastal areas are dynamic regions, both in biophysical and socio-economic terms. For example, adaptation activities in one community may have impacts on neighbouring communities and ecosystems (see Theme 3). Therefore, different levels of government will have to coordinate both their actions and the timing of those actions. ASLRP researchers analysed policies for coastal planning relevant to new and existing developments in Queensland as they relate to the Coastal Plan. Existing developments are much more difficult to regulate than new ones, as planning controls cannot be imposed retrospectively, ASLRP researchers also considered the need for governments to explore novel and flexible methods to transition private property to public ownership instead. The magnitude and the impacts of altered sea levels will vary in accordance with the individual characteristics of locations and the appropriate responses will also vary accordingly. However, it is essential that policies reflecting strategic planning decisions are adopted early, and are based on the best available spatial data and scientific information. Members of ASLRP explored how spatial data can be best utilised by policy-makers, particularly given the uncertainties inherent in scientific processes. A key achievement was identifying the 2011 Coastal Plan as a positive step forward in safeguarding against the predicted impacts of climate change. However, following a change of State government leadership in 2012, the Coastal Plan was replaced by a new policy document involving much weaker restrictions on development. ASLRP research highlighted the possible legal ramifications involved with this weakening policy, including the potential for legal liability.

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KEY OUTPUT A series of principals that guide scientists and policymakers when planning with uncertainty.

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PUBLICATIONS BELL, J. 2012b. Planning for climate change and sea level rise Queensland’s new Coastal plan. Environmental and Planning Law Journal, 29, 61-74. BELL, J. In press. Climate Change and Coastal Development Law in Australia. Federation Press. BELL, J. & BAKER-JONES, M. 2014. Retreat from retreat – the backward evolution of sea-level rise policy in Australia, and the implications for local government. Local Government Law Journal, 23, 23-35. BELL, J., SAUNDERS, M. I., LEON, J. X., MILLS, M., KYTHREOTIS, A., PHINN, S. R., MUMBY, P. J., LOVELOCK, C. E., HOEGHGULDBERG, O. & MORRISON, T. Accepted. Maps, laws and planning policy: working with biophysical and spatial uncertainty in the case of sea level rise. Environmental Science & Policy. 44, 247-257. MILLS, M., SAUNDERS, M. I., LEON, J. X., BELL, J., LIU, Y., O’MARA, J., LOVELOCK, C. E., MUMBY, P. J., PHINN, S., POSSINGHAM, H. P., TULLOCH, V., MUTAFOGLU, K., MORRISON, T., CALLAGHAN, D., BALDOCK, T. E., KLEIN, C. & HOEGH-GUELBERG, O. In review-b. Reconciling development and conservation under coastal squeeze from rising sea-level. MUTAFOGLU, K., QUIGGIN, J., CALDWELL, M. & MORRISON, T.H. In preparation. Subsidiarity and centralisation: The case of sea level rise.

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THEME 6:

PREPARING TO ADAPT TO SEA LEVEL RISE

KEY RECOMMENDATIONS

Morena Mills, Tom Baldock, Justine Bell, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Carissa Klein, Javier Leon, Cath Lovelock, Tiffany Morrison, Pete Mumby, Konar Mutafoglu, Stuart Phinn, Hugh Possingham, Megan Saunders

• Applying strategic planning approaches will ensure that both social and ecological goals are met in the most cost-effective manner. Strategic planning should occur at an early stage and be based on the most up-to-date information available concerning climate change projections. • Coastal retreat in strategic areas needs to be facilitated to allow for ecosystems to migrate, and options for retreat should be explored for both new and existing developments.

RESEARCH OVERVIEW The impacts of SLR on coastal communities and ecosystems will in many cases be substantial, but developing robust adaptation strategies is a serious challenge for policy makers and managers. Formulation of effective plans that resolve the trade-off between development and conservation goals needs take account of the fact that adaptation strategies can both mitigate and exacerbate the impacts of SLR. ASLRP researchers integrated spatial models of urban growth, inundation by SLR, and ecosystem migration within a systematic conservation planning framework to investigate the impacts of different SLR adaptation strategies at a local scale, using Moreton Bay in Southeast Queensland as the study site. Strategic adaptation based on the best spatial information available minimises trade-offs between coastal development and the desire to protect coastal ecosystems. A key achievement of the team was to demonstrate that while coastal adaptation will involve trade-offs, planners can inform their decisions to both minimise conflict between and among conservation and development goals, and substantially reduce costs involved in SLR adaptation. A further key achievement was showing that, given plausible scenarios for SLR, substantial development can be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. The study offered valuable new insights into the trade-offs between conservation and development and presented a number of key future research directions that can build on the study to better inform policies for SLR adaptation in Moreton Bay and other locations. Ongoing projects focus on understanding what risks coastal dwellers can tolerate for the loss of both properties and local environmental values.

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KEY OUTPUT A method incorporating models of SLR, urban growth and ecosystem migration with systematic planning tools in decisions about SLR adaptation (Figure 9), which showed that significant gains for both conservation and development can be made – and billions of dollars can be saved – by following such a process.

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PUBLICATIONS ADAMS, V.M., MILLS, M. DOUGLAS, M.M., POSSINGHAM, H.P., SETTERFIELD, S.A. (forthcoming) Managing multiple objectives considering current and future threats. MILLS, M., S. A. M. NICOL, J. A. WELLS, J. J. LAHOZ-MONFORT, B. WINTLE, M. BODE, M. WARDROP, T. WALSHE, W. J. M. PROBERT, M. C. RUNGE, H. P. POSSINGHAM, AND E. M. MADDEN. 2014. Minimizing the Cost of Keeping Options Open for Conservation in a Changing Climate. Conservation Biology 28:646-653.

Figure 9: Trade-off curve between conservation objectives (average % area of each ecosystem) and development (% area of urban development). Trade-offs are calculated for different SLR scenarios based on the global mean SLR probability distribution function (Weibull distribution scale 0.95 and shape 2.2). Blue shading represents the trade-off based on ‘likely’ SLR scenarios (66% probability of occurrence, from 0.44–1.23 m). Letters A–F (and accompanying maps) represent the configuration of SLR adaptation strategies along the Pareto frontier (i.e., tradeoff front, within the 0.98 m scenario). Black crosses represent random allocation of coastal adaptation strategies (point G is illustrated by the map in the bottom left of the graph). * and ** illustrate the gains in development and conservation objectives, respectively, by moving from a random allocation to a strategic approach to coastal adaptation. Modified from Mills et al., In review-b.

M. I., LEON, J. X., MILLS, M., SAUNDERS, BELL, J., LIU, Y., O’MARA, J., LOVELOCK, C. E., MUMBY, P. J., PHINN, S., POSSINGHAM, H. P., TULLOCH, V., MUTAFOGLU, K., MORRISON, T., CALLAGHAN, D., BALDOCK, T. E., KLEIN, C. & HOEGH-GUELBERG, O. In review-b. Reconciling development and conservation under coastal squeeze from rising sea-level. MILLS, M., R. WEEKS, R. L. PRESSEY, M. G. GLEASON, R.-L. EISMAOSORIO, A. T. LOMBARD, J. M. HARRIS, A. B. KILLMER, A. WHITE, AND T. H. MORRISON. 2015. IReal-world progress in overcoming the challenges of adaptive spatial planning in marine protected areas. Biological Conservation 181:54-63.

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THEME 7:

INSURANCE AND THE COST OF SEA LEVEL RISE

KEY RECOMMENDATION

Justine Bell, Cath Lovelock, Tiffany Morrison

Where engineering solutions are to be used to defend against the impacts of SLR, soft engineering solutions should be used if they can promote ecosystem persistence.

RESEARCH OVERVIEW The Department of Climate Change has estimated the worth of the 250,000 Australian homes that will be inundated by 2100 if sea levels rise by one metre to be $63 billion (DCC, 2009). In light of this threat, and that of other climate-change associated events, insurers and reinsurers are facing the prospect of withdrawing cover in high-risk situations. This has led to a re-evaluation of their roles, and adaptive behaviour is now on the agenda for the insurance industry; climate change and SLR are no longer research concerns of only scientists. ASLRP researchers carried out analysis of flood and extreme weather insurance classification and affordability, and investigated opportunities for the insurance industry to adapt and develop new products, including those that result in the protection of ecosystems (known as ‘green infrastructure’). For example, mangrove forests protect coastal areas from extreme events such as storm surge and erosion by minimising the amount of wave energy that reaches the shore, while also being vulnerable to degradation by those same events.

One key achievement of the team was to highlight serious areas of deficiency and concern in insurance classification and affordability: current insurance products cannot be relied on to absorb the financial impacts of SLR and the vast majority of insurance products in Australia do not cover loss or damage caused by actions of the sea, including SLR. Furthermore, while SLR will result in permanent inundation in some areas, current insurance products are not designed to compensate for loss of land or property value. A further key achievement was to show that it may be possible to insure mangrove forests to promote their rehabilitation and thereby retain their protective function. Despite potential challenges in marketing such an insurance product, ASLRP research showed that there is a sound legal basis for its development and details many of the factors that might need to be addressed for a mangrove insurance scheme to be successfully introduced.

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ASLRP PERSONNEL:

KEY OUTPUT A process for insurers to deal with the particular challenge of adaptation of existing development in areas at high risk from climate change-associated events, including SLR. ASLRP research showed that the insurance industry could promote change through requiring specified works as a precondition to insurance, or by using postdisaster repairs as an opportunity to build resilience.

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PUBLICATIONS BELL, J. 2011. Flood insurance, denials of claim and the Financial Ombudsman Service. Insurance Law Journal, 22, 40-50. BELL, J. 2012a. Insurance for extreme weather events in Australia – current policy trends, and future directions. Macquarie Journal of Business Law, 8, 339. BELL, J. 2012c. When will a flood be classified as a ‘flood’? A review of the Insurance Contracts Act reform. Insurance Law Journal, 23, 312. BELL, J. In press. Climate Change and Coastal Development Law in Australia. Federation Press. BELL, J. In review. Delivering flood insurance affordability in Australia – the role of law, policy and insurance in promoting property-scale risk mitigation. BELL, J. & LOVELOCK, C. E. 2013. Insuring mangrove forests for their role in mitigating coastal erosion and storm surge: an Australian case study. Wetlands, 33, 279-289. BELL, J. & MORRISON T.H. (forthcoming) A comparative analysis of the transformation of governance systems: Land use planning for flood risk. Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning. Accepted 8 June 2014.

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THEME 8:

USING ADAPTIVE PLANNING TO TACKLE UNCERTAINTY

KEY RECOMMENDATION

Morena Mills, Tiffany Morrison

Planning laws and policies should adopt a flexible approach to allow proposals and developments to be altered in line with scientific developments.

RESEARCH OVERVIEW In the context of natural resource management, spatial planning involves the allocation of resource use to specific areas in order to achieve ecological, economic and social objectives. Unfortunately, spatial planning is often undertaken as a oneoff project, which results in plans that are soon outdated, fail to be implemented, or which do not fully achieve their objectives. Adaptive planning – which incorporates, for example, new data, revised objectives and feedback on management actions – is necessary to resolve uncertainty and ensure that spatial plans remain relevant. However, even though the importance of adaptive planning and adaptive management is recognised, there are limited examples of how this is undertaken in practice. ASLRP research increased our understanding of the challenges of adaptive planning, and how they are being overcome, and in the process identified important future research directions that must be tackled when planning for a future uncertain world that is under threat from phenomena such as SLR. The team also explored the conceptual, operational, institutional, and policy implications of adaptive design, and in a further study assessed the present reality of adaptive spatial planning for marine resource management through five case studies, including the Great Barrier Reef (GBR).

A key achievement was compiling diverse solutions for overcoming the challenges of adaptive planning and outlining critical areas for future research to improve organisations’ abilities to undertake adaptive spatial planning, including identification of ecological and social thresholds that should inform triggers for adaptation.

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KEY OUTPUT A detailed and compelling case for regional designs for conservation to be adaptive. The reasons for adaptive planning include: early fine-tuning; mistakes and surprises; new data; and major overhaul due to change in goals or of the socialecological system (e.g., as a result of climate change).

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PUBLICATIONS MILLS, M., R. WEEKS, R. L. PRESSEY, M. G. GLEASON, R.-L. EISMAOSORIO, A. T. LOMBARD, J. M. HARRIS, A. B. KILLMER, A. WHITE, AND T. H. MORRISON. 2015. Real-world progress in overcoming the challenges of adaptive spatial planning in marine protected areas. Biological Conservation 181:54-63. PRESSEY, R., MILLS, M., WEEKS, R. & DAY, J. 2013. The plan of the day: Managing the dynamic transition from regional conservation designs to local conservation actions. Biological Conservation, 166, 155-169.

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SYNTHESIS PUBLICATIONS & FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTIONS Manuscripts drawing together the various lines of research carried out at the two study sites have been prepared and one has been published in the high-impact journal Nature Climate Change. For Moreton Bay, the urbanised coastal environment off Brisbane, the team showed that while coastal adaptation to SLR will involve trade-offs between and among development and conservation goals, compromise between goals and costs of adaptation can be minimised by adapting strategically (Mills et al., In review-b). The approach used in this case study factored in only scenarios of defence and retreat, and there are other strategies that could be explored. Equally, the model does not incorporate human response, nor the political feasibility of the range of potential solutions and these are highlighted as research directions that could build on the study to better inform policies for SLR adaptation. For the second site, Lizard Island, the team incorporated research on the responses of coral and seagrass to SLR to explore the hitherto largely ignored notion of interdependencies of ecosystems in relation to climate change (Saunders et al. 2014).

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REFERENCES CAZENAVE, A., HABIB-BOUBACAR, D., MEYSSIGNAC, B., VON SCHUCKMANN, K., DECHARME, B. & BERTHIER, E. 2014. The rate of sea-level rise. Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2159. CHURCH, J. A., HUNTER, J. R., MCINNES, K. L. & WHITE, N. J. 2006. Sea-level rise around the Australian coastline and the changing frequency of extreme sea-level events. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 55, 253-260. CHURCH, J. A., WHITE, N. J., HUNTER, J. R. & MCINNES, K. L. 2012. Sea level. In: POLOCZANSKA, E. S., HOBDAY, A. J. & RICHARDSON, A. J. (eds.) A marine climate change impacts and adaptation report card for Australia 2012. CHURCH, J. A., CLARK, P. U., CAZENAVE, A., GREGORY, J. M., JEVREJEVA, S., LEVERMANN, A., MERRIFIELD, M. A., MILNE, G. A., NEREM, R. S., NUNN, P. D., PAYNE, A. J., PFEFFER, W. T., STAMMER, D. & UNNIKRISHNAN, A. S. 2013. Sea level change. In: STOCKER, T. F., QIN, D., PLATTNER, G.-K., TIGNOR, M., ALLEN, S. K., BOSCHUNG, J., NAUELS, A., XIA, Y., BEX, V. & MIDGLEY, P. M. (eds.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. DCC 2009. Climate change risks to Australia’s coast: a first-class national assessment. Department of Climate Change, Australian Government, released November 14 2009. EHLER, C.N. & DOUVERE, R. (2007) Visions for a Sea Change. Technical Report of the International Workshop on Marine Spatial Planning, 8-10 November 2006. ICAM Dossier Series, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission: UNESCO: Paris, France. IOC Manual & Guides No. 46, ICAM Dossier 3, 84 p. IPCC 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (CORE WRITING TEAM, PACHAURI, R. K. & REISINGER, A. (eds.). Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC. NCCARF 2009. Report card of marine climate change for Australia, CSIRO. RAHMSTORF, S. 2007. Degrees of change. Nature 448, 136.

ACCESS TO DATA AND MODELS PRODUCED FROM THIS RESEARCH LEON J.X., PHINN, S.R., HAMYLTON, S.M. & SAUNDERS, M.I. (2013) A 20 m spatial resolution seamless multisource Digital Elevation/Depth Model for Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef. Supplement to LEON, J. X., PHINN, S. R., HAMYLTON, S. M. & SAUNDERS, M. I. 2013b. Filling the ‘white ribbon’ – a multisource seamless digital elevation model for Lizard Island, northern Great Barrier Reef. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 1-18. Dataset available to download at: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.804566 SAUNDERS, M.I., ROELFSEMA, C.M., PHINN, S.R., CANTO, R., BROWN, C.J. & LEON, J.X. (2013) Benthic and substrate cover data derived from photo-transect surveys in Lizard Island Reef conducted on December 10-15, 2011. Pangaea. Dataset. doi: 10.1594/ PANGAEA.807404. Dataset available to download at: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.807404 SAUNDERS, M.I., ROELFSEMA, C.M., PHINN, S.R., CANTO, R., BROWN, C.J., ATKINSON, S. & LEON, J.X. (2013) Benthic and substrate cover data derived from photo-transect surveys in Lizard Island Reef conducted on October 3-7, 2012. Dataset. Pangaea. doi: 10.1594/ PANGAEA.807406 Dataset available to download at: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.807406

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS GCI David Harris Adam Harper Anna Moloney

CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS ON ASLRP PUBLICATIONS Vanessa Adams Mark Baker-Jones Michael Bode Madeline Bottrill Meg Caldwell David Callaghan John Day Michael Douglas Rose-Liza Eisma-Osorio Mary Gleason Aliasghar Golshani Jean Harris Gerard Heuvelink Annette Kilmer Maurice Knight Eva Kovacs Andrew Kythreotis José Lahoz-Monfort Yan Liu Amanda Lombard

IMAGE CREDITS

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Front cover

Javier X. Leon

Page 12

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

Page 13

Javier X. Leon

Page 15

Megan Saunders

Page 21

Javier X. Leon

Page 25

Megan Saunders

Page 27

Megan Saunders

Page 31

Megan Saunders

Back cover

Megan Saunders

Mitchell Lyons Paul Maxwell Eve McDonald Madden Sam Nicol Katherine O’Brien Julian O’Mara Alexander Pescud Robert L. Pressey William Probert Anthony Richardson Michael Runge Samantha Setterfield Vivitskaia Tulloch Terry Walshe Martin Wardrop Rebecca Weeks Jessie Wells Alan White Monika Winn Brendan Wintle

ABOUT THE GLOBAL CHANGE INSTITUTE

GLOBAL CHANGE ENCOMPASSES THE INTERACTIONS OF NATURAL AND HUMAN INDUCED CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR SOCIETY. These changes are occurring at an unprecedented scale and speed. Fundamental global sustainability challenges include issues as diverse as: climate change (carbon mitigation and adaptation); human population growth and shift; resource security and consumption (food, energy sources, water and minerals); stewardship of

biodiversity and natural ecosystems; and, within a systems framework, managing the complex impacts (including cumulative impacts), convergences and responses on ecosystem health, social resilience and economic prosperity (including business and industry).

The University of Queensland has established leadership in many of the issues associated with global change, and is positioned to provide national and international leadership in these areas. The GCI provides a vehicle for collaborative research, learning, engagement and advocacy in major global change issues.

GCI MISSION

TO FOSTER DISCOVERY, LEARNING AND ENGAGEMENT BY CREATING, APPLYING AND TRANSFERRING KNOWLEDGE FOR INNOVATIVE AND INTEGRATED SOLUTIONS TO ADDRESS THE CHALLENGES OF A CHANGING WORLD.

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GLOBAL CHANGE INSTITUTE The University of Queensland St Lucia QLD 4072 Australia T +61 7 3443 3100 E [email protected] W www.gci.uq.edu.au