Atlanta Region 2040: Gazing Into The Crystal Ball

Atlanta Regional Commission For more information, contact: [email protected]

And for a brief overview… Last month, the Atlanta Regional Commission adopted The Atlanta Region’s Plan, a long-range comprehensive plan that includes a vision for how the region might grow to accommodate a population of just over eight million people by 2040. This Regional Snapshot unpacks those forecasts to show county and small-area trends, focusing on where those 2.5 million people may live. Although we encourage you to read the whole snapshot to see just how we think the 20-County Atlanta region will change over the years, here are some highlights: •

The 20-county Atlanta region is forecast to add almost 2.5 million people and slightly more than one million jobs by 2040.

•

Gwinnett County is expected to add almost 500,000 new residents by 2040, by far the largest forecast growth of any county in the Atlanta region. Fulton County is next (+294,000), followed by Forsyth (+224,000) and Cherokee (+159,000).

•

In percentage terms, suburban counties are forecast to increase the most, with Forsyth County being the only county forecast to double its population by 2040.

•

The 20-County area is growing older AND getting younger. Baby Boomers, the largest generation cohort, are aging while younger cohorts like Generation Z (today aged 0-17) and Generation AA (not yet born) will become the majority by 2040.

•

Between 2015 and 2040, we will see a tremendous decrease in whites and large increases in Hispanics in all counties.

•

While urban counties will see the biggest net increase in jobs, more suburban counties- such as Paulding, will see the largest percent increase in employment. Ultimately, however, jobs will stay concentrated in the urban core. Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts adopted 2/2016

Overall Employment and Population, 2015-2040 9,000,000 8,000,000

7,586,200

6,532,300

7,000,000 6,000,000

5,591,600

8,063,200

7,067,700

6,044,700

5,000,000 4,000,000

2,924,100

3,242,800

3,426,400

3,627,400

3,806,400

3,965,200

3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2015

2020

2025 Population forecast

2030

2035

2040

Employment forecast

To start off this snapshot, this chart shows the overall trend for our projected population and employment growth. The Atlanta region will see a steady increase in both people and jobs as we move towards 2040. Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts adopted 2/2016

Total Population, Change in Population 2015-2040 First we look at county level population forecasts. The biggest gainers, in absolute terms, are the large urban counties of Gwinnett and Fulton. Gwinnett’s forecast growth dwarfs the growth of other counties in the region, with an expected gain of almost 500,000 new residents by 2040. In percentage terms, several suburban counties are expected to attract significant growth through to 2040, with Forsyth the only county forecast to double its current population.

County Barrow Bartow Carroll Cherokee Clayton Cobb Coweta DeKalb Douglas Fayette Forsyth Fulton Gwinnett Hall Henry Newton Paulding Rockdale Spalding Walton

Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts adopted 2/2016

2015 Total Pop 75,103 110,448 116,236 233,231 266,888 727,521 141,156 718,442 137,343 110,975 206,701 970,290 859,757 200,586 218,364 106,500 149,382 89,390 66,291 86,969

2040 Total Pop Total Change, 2015-2040 Percent Change, 2015-2040 135,696 60,593 80.7% 179,084 68,636 62.1% 166,926 50,690 43.6% 392,411 159,180 68.2% 327,552 60,664 22.7% 885,062 157,541 21.7% 239,808 98,652 69.9% 874,424 155,982 21.7% 201,325 63,982 46.6% 143,255 32,280 29.1% 430,301 223,600 108.2% 1,264,376 294,086 30.3% 1,350,358 490,601 57.1% 328,058 127,472 63.5% 351,691 133,327 61.1% 166,208 59,708 56.1% 259,578 110,196 73.8% 128,103 38,713 43.3% 100,086 33,795 51.0% 138,715 51,746 59.5%

Total Population Change, 2015-2040

Now, let’s take a look at population change spatially. This map dives a little deeper to illustrate population change (2015-2040) by superdistricts (a geography created around market areas). The blue represents the biggest population change, while yellow represents the smallest. In absolute terms, the larger superdistricts in suburban areas are forecast to add the most population, although areas within the City of Atlanta, particularly around the Beltline, are forecast to add significant population.

Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts adopted 2/2016

2015 Generation Breakdown by County Walton Spalding Rockdale Paulding Newton Henry Hall Gwinnett Fulton Forsyth Fayette Douglas DeKalb Coweta Cobb Clayton Cherokee Carroll Bartow Barrow 20-Co. 10-Co. 0.0%

10.0%

31.8%

30.0%

40.0%

Gen Z (0-17)

Millennials (18-34)

23.1% 22.5% 23.8% 24.4% 21.2% 24.0% 22.1% 23.3% 21.5% 22.9% 23.0%

22.7% 22.3% 21.6% 22.2%

21.4% 24.5% 21.5% 22.2% 24.8% 20.5% 26.2% 23.0% 22.9% 23.1% 23.4% 20.0%

21.6% 22.4% 23.0% 21.4% 22.5% 22.0% 22.5%

24.1% 21.4% 22.6% 19.8% 22.8% 22.1% 24.3% 18.1%

18.1%

21.2% 22.4% 19.0% 20.9% 21.7% 22.0% 22.2% 50.0% Gen X (35-49)

8.8% 10.0% 8.3% 6.1% 7.7% 6.7% 8.5% 5.7% 6.7% 7.1% 11.4% 6.8% 6.7% 8.0% 7.2% 5.1% 7.5% 8.2% 7.8% 7.0% 6.9% 6.7%

24.7% 24.1% 25.7%

20.9% 18.8% 19.8%

20.8% 22.3% 21.7% 21.5% 22.2% 22.2% 23.5% 22.3% 26.1% 18.6%

24.8% 24.7% 24.4% 26.7% 26.3% 25.5% 26.8% 26.6% 23.2% 27.5% 20.6% 26.0% 24.0% 25.1% 24.0% 27.7% 25.5% 24.5% 25.1% 27.0% 25.0% 24.7%

60.0% Baby Boomers (50-69)

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Eisenhowers (70+)

This graph shows the shares of each generation by county in 2015. The county that stands out the most is Fayette County-- with (across all counties) the smallest percentage of Generation Zers and Millennials but the largest percentage of Baby Boomers. Otherwise, generations are relatively evenly distributed across counties. As the chart shows, however, the two largest groups are in most cases Generation Z and the Baby Boomers. This is particularly important for metro Atlanta because with one of the largest generation groups (the Boomers) growing older, we must plan to accommodate this type of growth. Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts adopted 2/2016

Walton Spalding Rockdale Paulding Newton Henry Hall Gwinnett Fulton Forsyth Fayette Douglas DeKalb Coweta Cobb Clayton Cherokee Carroll Bartow Barrow 0.0%

31.4% 32.2% 31.1% 28.1% 30.4% 28.7% 33.8% 30.4% 29.1% 31.2% 22.3% 29.9% 31.2% 29.3% 28.8% 30.9% 30.3% 32.1% 30.4% 33.4% 10.0%

20.0%

Gen AA (0-24)

2040 Generation Breakdown by County 24.3% 24.9% 24.0% 26.3% 23.9% 23.5% 23.4% 23.3% 23.3% 24.9%

22.7% 22.6% 21.3% 22.7% 22.2% 22.8% 21.6% 20.2% 22.9% 21.0%

23.4%

21.8% 24.9% 23.7% 23.7% 23.3% 24.3% 23.5% 23.4% 23.6% 23.7%

30.0% Gen-Z (25-42)

40.0% Millennials (43-59)

14.0% 21.6% 20.5% 22.6% 19.9% 22.4% 20.7% 22.7% 23.9% 22.5%

50.0% Gen-X (60-74)

13.9% 12.6% 13.3% 15.0% 14.4% 14.9% 12.8% 15.1% 15.7% 14.2%

60.0%

70.0%

Baby Boomers (75-94)

7.6% 7.5% 9.9% 7.7% 8.9% 9.8% 8.1% 10.7% 8.7% 8.4%

17.5% 14.8% 15.5% 14.4% 15.8% 14.4% 14.6% 13.0% 13.7% 13.3% 80.0%

8.5% 8.8% 9.7% 11.7% 7.8% 10.5% 8.5% 8.2% 7.1% 90.0%

100.0%

Eisenhowers (95+)

This chart, showing shares of generations in 2040, tells a different story than the previous one. Here the Baby Boomer generation, now 75-94, is one of the smallest (right behind Eisenhowers which do not make up a full percent in a single county), while a new generation, Generation AA, has emerged. Gen-Zers and Gen AAers have the largest shares of the population, thus making metro Atlanta a relatively young region in 2040. And with diversity largely concentrated in these younger age cohorts, the Atlanta region is also a much more diverse area in 2040. Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts adopted 2/2016

Percentage Point Change by Race, 2015-2040 10 county

-4.6

-8.4

20 county

-4.6

Barrow

2.5 -6.9

-1.2

-10.0

Bartow

-6.7

-0.7 -8.2

Cobb

-1.1 -7.6

-4.6 -7.0 -7.2

-0.1 -3.9

0.6 -0.4

-5.2

Change White shares

-5.0 Change in Black shares

3.4 1.3

1.8

-7.9 -10.4 -10.0

3.1

2.3 0.2 1.3

-9.3

Spalding

-15.0

14.0 2.1

-2.8

-1.0

7.8 15.1

-5.1

Paulding

Walton

5.3

0.5

-0.1

-3.8

2.9

3.1

-13.7

Newton

4.2

4.1

0.3

-11.6

-1.0

12.3

2.1

-7.7

Henry

-20.0

0.7 0.2 -5.4

-3.2

Rockdale

3.8 4.4

Fayette Fulton

10.4

1.3

-9.1

Douglas

Hall

10.9

3.2 -0.5

Gwinnett

6.9

2.3

-12.5

Forsyth

5.8

0.2 1.3 -4.9

Coweta DeKalb

5.4 3.3

-8.3

Clayton

9.8

1.8

-8.4

Cherokee

9.3

1.4

-0.5

Carroll

10.5

2.1

1.3

11.3 4.3

2.3

1.0 0.0 Change Other shares

10.4 5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Change Hispanic shares

This chart shows the percent point change in race by county from 2015 to 2040, demonstrating the dramatic increase in diversity expected by 2040. Every county will experience a decline in its White population share, while almost every county will also experience a decline in the Black share of population . All counties will see tremendous increases in their Hispanic shares of population, with Gwinnett and Hall Counties experiencing the largest percentage point increases. Please note that this is showing a change in the shares of population by race. Thus, in 2015, 48.6 percent of the region’s population was White. By 2040, that share is forecast to be 41.7 percent, a percentage point decline of 6.9. See the next slide for more information by county. Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts adopted 2/2016

Race Shares by County and Region, 2015 and 2040 2015 Race Shares 10 county

42.4%

20 county

2040 Race Shares

36.4%

48.5%

8.3%

31.7%

Barrow

7.4%

73.1%

Bartow Carroll

71.6%

Cherokee Clayton

13.9% 54.0%

25.2%

Coweta

71.8%

DeKalb

29.0%

78.0%

14.3%

Clayton

7.3%

13.6%

Cobb

Fulton

39.7%

Gwinnett

41.0%

Hall

61.1%

Henry

50.6%

Newton

50.8%

Paulding

17.0% 46.7% 33.2%

2015 White shares

40.0%

2015 Black shares

15.9%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

2015 Other shares

80.0%

9.0%

2015 Hispanic shares

100.0%

0.0%

24.0% 4.9%

32.0%

6.0%

47.5%

16.3%

42.5% 7.7%

40.6%

17.2% 42.9%

5.8%

51.5%

14.9%

40.0%

2040 Black shares

50.0%

60.0%

2040 Other shares

70.0%

8.4%

4.5% 6.6% 22.3%

34.5% 66.1%

9.5%

5.3%

71.7%

2040 White shares

15.5%

37.4% 37.4%

30.0%

9.9%

11.4%

13.6% 6.3% 3.8%

28.9%

13.4%

10.6%

40.2% 19.6%

11.0%

22.9%

3.1% 8.8%

These charts compare race shares in 2015 and 2040. Notice the dramatic increases in Hispanic population shares. Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts adopted 2/2016

25.2%

20.7%

29.4%

17.6%

10.4%

72.5%

20.0%

12.8%

9.4%

40.8% 58.8%

10.0%

6.4%

12.1%

39.7%

45.6%

13.7%

17.0% 45.1%

Newton

90.0%

24.1%

19.9%

Paulding

2.9%4.8%

20.2% 4.6%

5.9% 5.0%

67.1%

3.1%5.1%

Walton

7.0%

17.6% 56.4%

3.2%5.4%

Spalding

21.8%

9.6%

41.4%

45.4%

3.0%4.4%

9.8%

71.4%

Henry

Rockdale

9.5%

63.2%

Hall

4.0% 11.1%

76.5%

30.0%

Gwinnett

23.4%

72.1%

Fulton

8.6%

5.5% 6.4%

41.0%

27.1%

Forsyth

10.2%

10.8%

63.1%

Fayette

28.5%

37.5%

59.4%

20.0%

4.0% 9.2%

22.4%

7.2% 3.1%

38.2%

Walton

DeKalb Douglas

8.3% 13.1%

74.5%

Spalding

10.6%

6.5% 7.0%

43.4% 23.5%

41.7%

Coweta

3.6% 7.2%

2.9% 8.9%

31.8%

Cherokee

7.2%

20.5%

34.0%

Carroll

3.1% 7.0%

40.1%

Forsyth

10.0%

Bartow

7.8%

66.0%

0.0%

Barrow

17.4%

46.7%

Fayette

Rockdale

10.4%

52.7%

Douglas

20 county

5.8%3.7% 10.7% 64.6%

Cobb

12.4%

5.5%

18.3%

79.8%

10 county

10.1% 2.8% 8.3%

11.0%

78.8%

12.9%

7.3% 3.9%

80.0%

6.7%

15.2%

90.0%

2040 Hispanic shares

100.0%

Total Employment Switching gears to the employment part of the forecast, we are now going to take a quick look at total employment, employment change, and occupation change in the Atlanta region. The table to the right gives a general overview, showing total employment by county in both 2015 and 2040. The following slide will look more closely at the change over the period.

Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts adopted 2/2016

County 10-Co. 20-Co Barrow Bartow Carroll Cherokee Clayton Cobb Coweta DeKalb Douglas Fayette Forsyth Fulton Gwinnett Hall Henry Newton Paulding Rockdale Spalding Walton

Percent Total Change, Change, 2015 Total Emp 2040 Total Emp 2015-2040 2015-2040 2,463,606 3,274,038 810,432 33% 2,923,956 3,965,194 1,041,238 36% 23,517 35,922 12,405 53% 43,396 63,925 20,529 47% 52,250 73,925 21,675 41% 71,655 108,760 37,105 52% 138,528 168,287 29,759 21% 399,486 535,185 135,699 34% 44,179 69,241 25,062 57% 360,125 468,335 108,210 30% 50,827 77,556 26,729 53% 52,738 76,005 23,267 44% 82,807 132,132 49,325 60% 889,811 1,136,421 246,610 28% 392,159 547,856 155,697 40% 93,871 132,521 38,650 41% 68,568 100,413 31,845 46% 30,252 45,394 15,142 50% 33,288 56,967 23,679 71% 39,709 55,220 15,511 39% 30,164 42,067 11,903 39% 26,626 39,062 12,436 47%

Net and Percent Change in Employment, 2015-2040 300000

80.0% 71.1%

70.0%

250000 59.6% 200000

56.7% 51.8%

52.7% 47.3%

150000

60.0%

52.6% 39.7%

44.1%

41.5% 30.0%

100000

46.4% 41.2%

34.0% 27.7%

21.5%

50.0% 46.7%

50.1% 39.1%

39.5%

40.0% 30.0%

20.0%

50000

10.0%

0

0.0%

Net change

Percent Total

This chart shows the net change in total employment between 2015 and 2050 (green bar) and the percent change of total employment between those years (purple line). As with population change, the urban counties like Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett and Cobb have the largest net changes in employment, but the suburban counties, like Paulding, have the largest percent increases. Paulding, in fact, has the largest percentage change in tha Atlanta region- 71.1 percent.

Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts adopted 2/2016

Total Employment Change, 2015-2040

This map shows total employment change spatially by superdistrict. Blue represents the highest change and yellow is the lowest. We can see that in terms of absolute change, the northern half of the region will see the most growth, such as north Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Hall Cherokee, and Cobb counties.

Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts adopted 2/2016

Employment Change (per square mile), 2015-2040 Now let’s dive a little deeper and look at employment change per square mile by superdistrict. Blue represents the largest change while yellow represents the smallest. Despite outer counties, such as Paulding, showing higher percentage growth, the urban core will still see the biggest increase in jobs per square mile. This method controls for the size of the superdistrict, which are much larger in suburban areas than in urban areas.

Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts adopted 2/2016

Want more information? Well, we have it!

Please check out the Forecast section of our website below for much more information: http://atlantaregionsplan.com/about-the-region/population-employment-forecasts/