Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin The BACC Project International Conference BACC II Tallinn, Estonia 6 – 7 September 2012
Programme BACC (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin) integrates available knowledge of historical, current and projected future climate change. The unique feature of BACC is the combination of evidence on climate change and related impacts on marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems as well as society in the Baltic Sea basin, which covers the water catchment region of the Baltic Sea. The Purpose of the Conference is to discuss the 2nd BACC assessment (BACC II) with the scientific community and interested stakeholders like policy makers and environmental managers. The first day of the Conference will be devoted to scientific discussions when the individual chapter lead authors will present the BACC II results both as oral lectures and posters. The second day, discussions will be dedicated to bridge science, policy and the public, and will include a panel discussion. Background: The BACC project had published its first report in 2008, as a joint venture of BALTEX (Baltic Sea Experiment) and HELCOM (Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission). Additional evidence published since then and topics not fully covered in the previous report have been integrated in the BACC II efforts, and the resulting new assessment will be discussed at this conference. As with the previous report, BACC II provides an assessment of past, ongoing and possible future climate variations in the Baltic Sea Basin based on available literature, where the term climate variations is used for both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. BALTEX is a Regional Hydroclimate Programme within GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) and WCRP (World Climate Research Programme). The Conference is jointly organized by
Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC II)
Thursday, 6 September 2012 - The Scientific Discussion 8:30 – 9:50
Registration Coffee and refreshments
10:00
Opening and Welcome - Representative of the City of Tallinn - Representative of Tallinn University of Technology - Maria Laamanen, HELCOM Professional Secretary - Hans von Storch, BACC Science Steering Committee Chairman
10:15
Introduction to BACC and BACC II Speaker: Anders Omstedt, University of Gothenburg, Sweden
10:30
Part 1: Presentation of BACC II results Chair: Anders Omstedt, University of Gothenburg, Sweden The focus of Part 1 of the Conference is on presentations by chapter lead authors for the scientific community. There will be limited time for discussion with the audience, with more extended possibilities for detailed communications between participants and authors at the poster session in Part 2 (see below).
Chapter 2:
Past climate variability
10:30
Past climate variability – 12,000 years Speaker: Irena Borzenkova, State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia
10:50
Past climate variability – 1,000 years Speaker: Tadeusz Niedźwiedź, University of Silesia, Sosnowiec, Poland
11:10
Discussion
Chapter 3:
Climate change during the last 200 years In this chapter, knowledge on past and current change in the Baltic Sea basin will be assessed. The presentation will be divided into three sections, devoted to the atmosphere, the land surface and the Baltic Sea.
11:30 11:50 12:10
Recent and current climate change in the atmosphere Recent and current climate change on land Recent and current climate change in the Baltic Sea Speaker: Anna Rutgersson, Uppsala University, Sweden
12:30
Discussion
12:50
Joint Lunch
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Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC II)
Chapter 4:
Modelling future climate change This chapter is divided into a methodological overview over the current state of the art of regional climate models used in the Baltic Sea region, and the actual results of the models.
14:00 14:20
Skill of methods for describing regional climate futures Projections of future climate change Speaker: Joanna Wibig, University of Łódź, Poland
14:50
Discussion
Chapter 5:
Impacts of current and future climate change Chair: Marcus Reckermann, International BALTEX Secretariat, Germany This chapter is dedicated to the impacts of climate change, subdivided into environmental (atmospheric, terrestrial and marine environments), and socio-economic impacts (cities, managed forests, agriculture, coastal erosion).
15:10
Impacts on the environment: Atmospheric chemistry, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems Speaker: Christoph Humborg, Stockholm University, Sweden
15:40
Socio-economic impacts: Agriculture, forestry, urban complexes, coastal erosion and coastline changes Speaker: Sonja Deppisch, HafenCity Universität Hamburg, (plan B:altic), Germany
16:10
Discussion
16:30
Health break
Chapter 6:
Attributing causes of regional climate change This chapter summarises the state-of-the-art in attributing the observed climate change in the Baltic Sea basin to different drivers, including global warming.
16:50
Attributing causes of regional climate change: Global warming, aerosols, and land cover Speaker: Hans-Christen Hansson, Stockholm University, Sweden
17:20
Discussion
17:40
Part 2: Discussion of BACC II results at posters Conference participants are invited to discuss the BACC II results presented in Part 1 of the Conference with BACC II authors. Posters showing main BACC II results are displayed for detailed discussion purposes. Both lead and contributing authors will be available for discussion with conference participants.
19:00
End of Day 1
19:30
Joint Dinner
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Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC II)
Friday, 7 September 2012 – The Stakeholder Discussion 9:00
Part 3: Summary and environmental issues in the Baltic Sea basin Chair: Hans-Jörg Isemer, International BALTEX Secretariat, Germany This part of the Conference will summarise the BACC II results for stakeholders, such as policy makers, environmental administration and decision makers, the public and media. The HELCOM experience and plans towards creating a good environmental status of the Baltic Sea will be presented, where climate change is an aspect to be considered.
9:00
Summary of BACC II results Speaker: Hans von Storch, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany
9:30
Cooperation for good environmental status of the Baltic Sea (HELCOM) The HELCOM Baltic Sea Action plan aims at restoring the good ecological status of the Baltic marine environment by 2021. Major environmental threats such as eutrophication and hazardous substances endanger the prospects for the future recovery of the sea and its capability to adapt to external forcing such as climate change. BACC II and HELCOM are cooperating to use the scientific findings of BACC II for revision of the HELCOM Thematic Assessment Report on Climate Change in the Baltic Sea area. Speaker: Maria Laamanen, Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), Finland
10:00
Discussion
10:30
Health break
11:00
Part 4: Panel discussion: Climate change and society The panel will discuss options of how to better communicate and translate scientific knowledge about climate change from science communities to decision makers as well as the public at large. Experiences from BACC and HELCOM, and further regional initiatives, will be used to help shape answers and actions. The primary objective of the panel discussion is to point out major messages from the two BACC reports and to focus on promising ways to achieve outreach and utilization of these results at national, regional and local levels throughout the coastal region of the Baltic Sea. Panel members will include scientists as well as representatives of governmental and intergovernmental organizations. Panel members • • • • • •
Representative of the Estonian Ministry of the Environment Maria Laamanen, HELCOM, Finland Lykke Leonardsen, Municipality of Copenhagen, Denmark Maxi Nachtigall, Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS), Expert Group on Sustainable Development/BALTIC 21, Sweden Hans von Storch, BACC Science Steering Committee, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Andrzej Witkowski, University of Szczecin, Poland
Moderation: Grit Martinez, Ecologic Institute Berlin, Germany / Duke University,USA 12:30
Wrap-up and Closing of the Conference Coffee and Sandwiches -4-
Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC II)
BACC II Science Steering Committee Mikko Alestalo, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland L. Phil Graham, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden Hans-Jörg Isemer, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Sirje Keevallik, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia Maris Klavins, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia Maria Laamanen, HELCOM, Helsinki, Finland Juha-Markku Leppänen, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland Anders Omstedt, University of Gothenburg, Sweden Rajmund Przybylak, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toruń, Poland Marcus Reckermann, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Benjamin Smith, Lund University, Sweden Hans von Storch, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Heikki Tuomenvirta, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland Timo Vihma, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland Valery Vuglinsky, State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia Ilppo Vuorinen, University of Turku, Finland
BACC II Lead Authors Jonas Bhend, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Australia Irena Borsenkova, State Hydrological Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia Ole Bøssing Christensen, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark Sonja Deppisch, HafenCity Universität Hamburg, (plan B:altic), Germany Jüri Elken, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia Marie-José Gaillard, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden Jari Haapala, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland Hans-Christen Hansson, Stockholm University, Sweden Birgit Hünicke, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Christoph Humborg, Stockholm University, Sweden Jukka Käyhkö, University of Turku, Finland Joachim Krug, Thuenen-Institute for World Forestry, Hamburg, Germany Tomasz Łabuz, University of Szczecin, Poland Tadeusz Niedźwiedź, University of Silesia, Sosnowiec, Poland Pekka Niemelä, University of Turku, Finland Sirpa Rasmus, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland Anna Rutgersson, Uppsala University, Sweden Bernd Schneider, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany David Simpson, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Markku Viitasalo, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland Joanna Wibig, University of Łódź, Poland Eduardo Zorita-Calvo, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany
BACC II Authors Hans Estrup Andersen, Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmark Elga Apsite, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia Lars Bärring, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden Armineh Barkhordarian, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Jerzy Bartnicki, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Rasmus Benestad, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Johan Bergh, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden Thorsten Blenckner, Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm, Sweden Jan Boelhouwers, Uppsala University, Sweden
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Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC II)
BACC II Authors (continued) Olga Borisova, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Dennis Bray, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Agrita Briede, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia Ian A. Brown, Stockholm University, Sweden Anna Burclaw, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management IMGW, Gdynia, Poland Björn Claremar, Uppsala University, Sweden Kari Eilola, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden Hillevi Eriksson, Swedish Forest Agency, Jönköping, Sweden Malgorzata Falarz, University of Silesia, Sosnowiec, Poland Nikolai Filatov, Northern Water Problems Institute, Petrozadovsk, Russia Mathias Gadegast, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany Anna Gårdmark, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Öregrund, Sweden Reiner Giesler, Umeå University, Sweden Rüdiger Glaser Albert-Ludwigs-University Freiburg, Germany Aslak Grinsted, University of Copenhagen, Denmark Daniel Hansson, University of Gothenburg, Sweden Samuli Helama, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Jens Hartmann, University of Hamburg, Germany Claudia Heidecke, Thuenen Institute of Rural Studies, Braunschweig, Germany Ole Hertel, National Environmental Research Institute, Roskilde, Denmark Jari Holopainen, University of Helsinki, Finland Jens Hürdler, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany Gustaf Hugelius, Stockholm University, Sweden Susanne Ingvander, Stockholm University, Sweden Jaak Jaagus, University of Tartu, Estonia Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland Holger Janßen, Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany Milla M. Johansson, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland Sirkku Juhola, Aalto University, Finland Risto Kalliola, University of Turku, Finland Laimdota Kalnina, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia Jed Oliver Kaplan, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland Lena Kautsky, Stockholm University, Sweden Seppo Kellomäki, University of Joensuu, Finland Dalia Kisieliené, Institute of Geology & Geography, Vilnius, Lithuania Lev Kitaev, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Erik Kjellström, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden Thomas Kleinen, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Vladimir Klimenko, Moscow Power Engineering Institute, Russia Michael Köhl, University of Hamburg, Germany Tiiu Koff, Tallinn University, Estonia Sergey Kondratyev, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia Johanna Korhonen, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland Pirkko Kortelainen, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland Jurate Kriauciuniene, Lithuanian Energy Institute, Kaunas, Lithuania Denis Kuznetsov, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia Joakim Langner, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden Esa Lehikoinen, University of Turku, Finland Andreas Lehmann, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany Geoffrey Lemdahl, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden Martin Lindegren, Technical University of Denmark, Charlottenlund, Denmark Marcus Lindner, European Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland
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Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC II)
BACC II Authors (continued) Göran Lindström, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden Philip Lorenz, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany Kaarina Lukkari, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland Ewa Łupikasza, University of Silesia, Sosnowiec, Poland Kristine S. Madsen, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark Łukasz Małarzewski, University of Silesia, Sosnowiec, Poland Douglas Maraun, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany Grit Martinez, Ecologic Institute Berlin, Germany Gitte Blicher Mathiesen, Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmark Markus Meier, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden Andrew Mercer, Stockholm University, Sweden Anders Moberg, Stockholm University, Sweden Bärbel Müller-Karulis, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia Kai Myrberg, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland Tadeusz Niedzwiedz, University of Silesia, Branch of Kraków, Sosnowiec, Poland Anne Brigitte Nielsen, Lund University, Sweden Øyvind Nordli, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Alf Norkko, University of Helsinki, Hanko, Finland Kalle Olli, University of Tartu, Estonia Sara Pryor, Indiana University, Bloomington, USA Rajmund Przybylak, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toruń, Poland Anna Pyrh, Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Tallinn, Estonia Michael Richter, HafenCity Universität Hamburg, Urban (plan B:altic), Germany Dirk Riemann, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany Egidijus Rimkus, Vilnius University, Lithuania Mia Rönkä, University of Turku, Finland Iina Ronkainen, University of Helsinki, Finland Kari Saikkonen, MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Jokioninen, Finland Patrick Samuelsson, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden Camilla Sandström, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden Tatyana Sapelko, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia Frederik Schenk, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany Natalija Schmelzer, Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH, Hamburg, Germany Guy Schurgers, Lund University, Sweden Olga Solomina, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Torben Obel Sonnenborg, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland GEUS, Copenhagen, Denmark Tarmo Soomere, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia Migle Stancikaite, Institute of Geology & Geography, Vilnius, Lithuania Martin Stendel, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark Dimitry Subetto, Herzen Pedagogical University, St. Petersburg, Russia Ülo Suursaar, University of Tartu, Tallinn, Estonia Marzenna Sztobryn, Institute of Meteorology and Water, Gdynia, Poland Harri Tolvanen, University of Turku, Finland Markus Venohr, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany Gesa Weyhenmeyer, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden Joanna Wibig, University of Łódź, Poland Johan Wikner, Umeå University, Sweden Anna Wramneby, Lund University, Sweden
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Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC II)
Conference Venue:
Tallink Spa Conference Hotel Sadama 11a 10111 Tallinn Estonia
The following institutions have organised and generously supported the Conference
Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology
Danish Meteorological Institute
University of Gothenburg, Earth Science Centre
Finnish Meteorological Institute
HELCOM
Swedish Institute for the Marine Environment
HelmholtzZentrum Geesthacht
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
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