Asia’s Youth Population: Trends and Issues by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centre The University of Adelaide Presentation to Year 12 Geography Night, University of Adelaide 22nd August 2013

Outline of Presentation • • • • • • • • •

Introduction Changing Numbers of Youth Population The Outlook for Growth Economic Implications Characteristics of the New Youth Generation Mobility Social and Educational Participation Implications Conclusion

Asian Youth • Largest ever generation of youth • First with access to universal education • First to grow up with modern media and communication • First growing up in globalisation era

Diversity in Asia • Massive variation within and between countries • 57.7 percent of world’s population • Range in size – 300,000 – 1.3 billion • GDP per capita US$1,027 – US$25,130 • Variation in proportion of their population in youth age groups

Massive Demographic Change Which Has Impinged Upon Youth • Fertility reduction • Mortality reduction • Influenced age structure

ESCAP Region1: Major Demographic Changes, 1970-2011 Source:

UNESCAP, 1984, 2011

Demographic Variable

1970

2011

Percent Change 1970-2011

Total Population (m)

2,041

3,998

+95.9

55.2

57.2

+3.6

Annual Growth Rate3

2.2

0.9

-59.1

Percent Urban3

24

43

+79.2

Percent Aged 0-143

40

25

-37.5

Percent Aged 65+3

4

7

+75.0

Dependency Ratio3

80

47

-41.3

Total Fertility Rate2,3

5.4

2.1

-99.6

Expectancy of Life at Birth – Males3

52

68

+30.8

Expectancy of Life at Birth – Females3

54

72

+33.3

Percent of World Population

1

The data exclude the countries of Central Asia which were not part of the ESCAP region in 1970 and 1980.

2

TFR and Life Expectancies refer to the average of the five years prior to 1970.

3

Includes Central Asia in 2011.

Largest Nations Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision

Nation

2010

2020 000

China

1,359,821

1,432,868

India

1,205,625

1,353,305

Indonesia

240,676

269,413

Pakistan

173,149

203,351

Bangladesh

151,125

169,566

Japan

127,353

125,382

FERTILITY CHANGE IN ESCAP

1950-55 1960-65 1970-75 1980-85 1990-95 2000 2003 2012

TFR 5.9 5.6 5.1 3.7 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.1

PERCENT IN URBAN AREAS: ESCAP REGION 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2003 2012 2030

14.8 17.6 20.4 24.3 30.3 36.9 40.0 45.9 53.0

CHANGES IN THE FAMILY IN ASIA • Increased family nucleation • Fertility decline – reduced size of families • Breakdown of extended family social networks • Reduced patriarchal control • Change in women’s status and roles • Changing intergenerational relationships • Reduced significance as the unit of production

Asia: Age-Sex Structure of Current and Projected Population, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Source: United Nations 2013 2020

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

Males

200,000

Females

100,000

0

100,000

200,000

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 200,000

Number of Persons ('000)

100,000

Age Group

Female

0

50,000 100,000150,000200,000

2050

Number of Persons ('000)

Age Group

Age Group

100,000

200,000

2040

Males

200,000150,000100,000 50,000

0

Number of Persons ('000)

2030 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

Females

Males

Age Group

Age Group

2010

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 200,000

Males

Females

100,000

0

100,000

Number of Persons ('000) Males

200,000

150,000

Females

100,000

50,000

0

50,000

Number of Persons ('000)

100,000

150,000

200,000

200,000

The Asian Youth Bulge Asian Population Aged 15-24, 1960-2010 and Projected 2020 and 2040 Source: United Nations, 2013

Year 1960 1980 1985 1990 2000 2010 2020 2040

Population Aged 15-24 Annual Percentage Growth Number ('000) Percent Per Annum 282,148 17.32 494,387 19.61 2.84 567,840 20.45 2.81 614,391 20.05 1.59 636,293 18.01 0.35 718,194 18.26 1.22 644,330 14.96 -0.54 634,014 13.39 -0.08

Selected Asian Countries: Proportion of the Population Aged 15-24, 1950-2000 (Actual) 2010-2040 (Projected) Source: United Nations, 2003

22

22

Asia

Asia Regions

21

20

20

19

19

18

18

17

17 percent

percent

21

16

16

15

15

14

14

13

13

12

12

11

11

East

10 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

10 1950

2050

South South-east

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

Year

22

24

Japan 20

Republic of Korea

22

20

16

18

percent

percent

18

14

16

12

14

10

12

8 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

10 1950

Year

22.0 21.0

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000 Year

21

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

per

pe 14

16

12

14

Selected Asian Countries: Proportion of the Population Aged 15-24, 1950-2000 (Actual) 2010-2040 (Projected) (Cont.)

10

12

8 1950

10

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Year

1950 1960 Source: United Nations, 2003 1970 2030

2040

2050

22.0

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

21

Indonesia

21.0

India

20

20.0 19 19.0 18 percent

percent

18.0 17.0 16.0

17 16

15.0 15 14.0 14

13.0 12.0 1950

13 1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Year

2020

2030

2040

2050

28

Laos

21

East Timor

26

20

24

19

22 percent

percent

2010

Year

22

18

20

17

18

16

16

15

14

14 1950

2000

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000 Year

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

12 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000 Year

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Viet Nam: Projections of Adolescents and Youth Population, 1999-2024

MILLIONS

Source: Haub and Huong, p. 12

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Share of Population in Working Ages by World Region, Actual 1950-2005 and Projected 2010-2050 Source: United Nations 2007 0.70 0.68

0.64 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.52

Year Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America and Caribbean

North America

Oceania

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

0.50 1950

Share of Population

0.66

The “Demographic Dividend” The tendency for the working age population to grow more rapidly than the overall population once Fertility has begun to decline.

The Youth Bulge in Asia • Peaking of numbers • Peaking of percentage of total population • Varies between countries • Major role in economic productivity

The Declining Importance of the Youth Population in Asia: 2002 to 2022 Source: Asian Demographics Ltd, 9 August 2003

Significant Changes in the Age Profile of Thailand’s Population: 2003 to 2023 Source: Asian Demographics Ltd, 1 November 2003

The Fuller Youth Bulge • The youth bulge is associated with political unrest • May be at national or sub national levels • The Arab Spring • Concentration in Large Cities

Economic Impacts of Globalisation on Youth • Shift in distribution of job opportunities • Effects on education – First generation of universal education • More effect on youth than other groups • Winners and losers

Job Opportunities • Changing political context (eg China, Vietnam) • Opening of economies • Offshoring of manufacturing • Urban-based opportunities • Gender dimension • Higher mobility • Effects of education

Negative Effects • Destruction of traditional protection systems • Work conditions • Lack of security • Decline in rural areas • The Asian Crisis effects • High unemployment

Regional Estimates for Youth Unemployment, 1995-2005 Source: Morris 2006, p. 7

Unemployment Rates for Youth, Adults and Total, Thailand, 1990-2004 (Percentages) Source: Morris 2006, p. 9

Philippines (Rixhon, 2004, 60) Each year 800,000 young entrants to the workforce not able to be absorbed. • • • • • •

Skill mismatches Financial constraints on technical institutions Limited access to technical education Unfair terms of employment Attitudinal shortcomings Lack of effectiveness of government in dealing with youth unemployment

Vulnerable Workplaces for Young Women • Factories • ‘Entertainment’ Industry • Domestic Work

Educational Participation • Universal Access to Education in Most Countries • Issues of Quality, Resources • Inequality in Access • Mismatches with Skills Needed in Job Market • Can be a Barrier to Enjoying Benefits of Globalisation • Gender Dimensions

Indonesia: Disparity of Access to Education Source:UNESCO 2006, p.44

Number of Tertiary Students Worldwide, 1991 and 2004 (millions) Source: UNESCO 2006, p. 21

Number of Tertiary Students (in millions)

140

120 Central Asia

100

Sub-Saharan Africa Arab States

80

Latin America and Caribbean South and West Asia

60

Central and Eastern Europe North America and Western Europe

40

East Asia and the Pacific

20

0 1991

2004 Ye ar

The Digital Divide • Differential Access to New Communication and Information Technology • Barrier to Access to Labour Market • Barrier to Knowledge, Awareness • Barrier to Global Involvement

Mobile Phone and Internet Use, 2011 Source: World Bank online data, http://data.worldbank.org/topic/infrastructure

(per 100 people) Region

Cellular subscribers

Internet users

Least Developed Countries

42

6

East Asia and the Pacific

84

39

South Asia

69

9

High Income

122

73

World

85

33

Social Participation • Key period of lifecycle socially • Spread of western cultural practices • Exposure to different ways of doing things • Challenge to traditional authority structures • Separation from family • Clashes in values

Increase in Risky Health Related Behaviour • Limited access to information regarding the risks of sexual activity and contraception • Peer pressure • Inadequate access to youth-friendly health services • Economic constraints

Indonesia: Age Structure of the Population Reported with HIV Infection, November 2000 Source: Directorate General CDC and EH Ministry of Health, Republic of Indonesia, 2001 350

300

Num ber

250

200

150

100

50

0 0-4

5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+ Age

Suicide Mortality of Young Adults Aged 15-24 in Selected Countries and Areas Source: Ruzicka 1998

Country/area in ESCAP Region Bangladesh China (rural) China (urban) Hong Kong Singapore Sri Lanka Republic of Korea Japan Australia New Zealand Highest suicide rates in countries of Europe: Russian Federation Lithuania Finland Latvia Estonia

Year 1980-1996 1992 1992 1994 1994 1986 1994 1994 1990-1992 1990-1993

1994 1994 1994 1994 1994

Suicides per 100,000 Males Females 9.3 19.6 17.4 36.7 5.6 10.6 9.5 8.7 11.7 10.2 77.0 48.0 11.0 5.9 12.0 5.1 26.0 5.0 39.0 6.0

49.0 46.0 46.0 40.0 38.0

9.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 10.0

Male to Female Ratio 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.4 5.0 6.0

5.0 4.0 6.0 10.0 4.0

Family Participation Issues • Basic unit of social organisation • Movement from extended family model to nuclear family • Intergenerational clashes • Challenges to traditional authority clashes

Emerging Gender Imbalances Among Youth Asian Countries: Actual and Projected Population Aged 20-34 Years (in Thousands), 1990-2020 Source: United Nations Projections Year Asia 1990 2000 2010 2020 East Asia 1990 2000 2010 2020 South-Central Asia 1990 2000 2010 2020 Southeast Asia 1990 2000 2010 2020

Males

Females

Total

Percent Growth

374,124 427,133 456,755 493,429

350,788 403,832 428,718 461,284

724,912 830,965 885,473 954,713

14.6 6.5 7.8

172,834 187,805 171,729 171,069

165,470 178,627 159,346 155,972

338,304 366,432 331,075 327,041

8.3 -9.6 -1.2

141,940 171,087 207,132 240,515

129,454 157,341 192,530 225,098

271,394 328,428 399,662 465,613

21.0 21.7 16.5

56,349 68,241 77,895 81,847

55,863 67,866 76,842 80,212

112,212 136,107 154,737 162,059

21.3 13.7 4.7

Emerging Issues • China’s bare branches – 20 million in 2021 • Also influencing Taiwan, Korea, Singapore • Significant number of young men who will never be able to form a family • Concentrated on young men who are poor and in rural areas

Participation in Mobility • New mobility paradigm in Asia, internal and international • Increase in scale and complexity of mobility • Youth are disproportionately participants • Opened up new opportunities as well as potential for exploitation • Important gender dimension

Indonesia: Proportion of Recent Migrants By Age and Sex, 1990 to 1995 Source: Muhidin 2002 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04

0.02 0.01

Females Males

AGE AT CENSUS/SURVEY

85+

80 - 84

75 - 79

70 - 74

65 - 69

60 - 64

55 - 59

50 - 54

45 - 49

40 - 44

35 - 39

30 - 34

25 - 29

20 - 24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5-9

0.00

0-4

PROPORTION

0.03

Main Forms of International Mobility • South-north migration • Skilled migration • Contract labour migration • Student migration • Marriage migration • Increased intra regional movement

Increased Focus on Youth in South-North Migration • Increased Focus on Skill • Inclusion of Age in Migration Selection Criteria • Connection with Student Migration • Increasing Significance of Marriage Migration

Overseas Students in Australian Universities, 1983-2011 Source: DEEWR Students: Selected Higher Education Statistics, various issues

400,000

Overseas Students from Northeast Asia

350,000

Overseas Students from Southeast Asia

300,000

Other Overseas Students

250,000

Total Overseas Students (1983-90)

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000

Year

2010 2011

2008 2009

2005 2006 2007

2003 2004

2000 2001 2002

1998 1999

1995 1996 1997

1993 1994

1991 1992

1988 1989 1990

1986 1987

0 1983 1984 1985

Number

Overseas Students from Southern and Central Asia

Conceptualizing Marriage Migration

Student

Tourism

Work

ENTRY TO DESTINATION

Marriage Commodified

Marriage Conventional

Increasing Marriage Migration • Increased mobility of youth – leading to increased international marriage/partnership • Increasing shortages of women in some countries and regions • Cultural changes in the role of women • The marriage migration industry • Changing previously ‘homogeneous’ Asian societies

Taiwan • 32.2 percent of all marriages are to foreigners • 13.4 percent of births are to foreign women • 100,000 from Vietnam

Positive Effects • Expansion of opportunities • Increased independence and experience • Remittances effects • Diaspora and development • Central role of youth

Negative Effects • Vulnerability to exploitation and abuse of human rights • Exposure to disease • Separation from family • Loss of human capital

Conclusion • Era of massive social, economic, demographic and cultural transformation • Key impact of globalisation • Bridging generation between old and the new • Winners and losers • Need for youth sensitivity in policy • Importance of security - personal, economic and social • Danger of being overlooked