Argus US West Coast Products Issue 16-190  |  Monday 3 October 2016

Market Summary

Market Prices

„„ Los Angeles and San Francisco gasoline fell on Monday, while Portland gasoline nudged higher.

Key petroleum prices Price

±

Los Angeles Carbob ¢/USG

167.55

-2.01

„„ Los Angeles jet fuel cash differentials fell on MOnday, as several cargoes are expected to arrive in the next two weeks from east Asia.

Los Angeles Carb diesel ¢/USG

161.82

+2.11

Los Angeles jet fuel ¢/USG

151.82

+0.49

„„ California carbon allowances (CCAs) were up slightly on Monday in moderate trade.

Key renewables prices

ANS delivered USWC $/bl

48.47

0.93

South Korea to USWC freight rate $/t

27.14

0.00

¢/RIN Vintage

Los Angeles low CI ethanol ¢/USG

„„ US ethanol markets rebounded Monday as CBOT corn futures soared to an 11-week high alongside stronger RBOB futures.

Price

±

172.00

+2.00 2.00

Renewable fuel (ethanol) RIN

2016

91.25

Advanced biofuel RIN

2016

102.75

0.75

Biomass-based diesel RIN

2016

103.50

0.75

RVO ¢/USG

2016

9.53

0.18

Vintage

Price

±

Key California carbon prices

Contents

Credits $/t

Gasoline Distillates Renewables California carbon Fuel oil News

2 2 3 4 4 4

LA 84 Carbob differential

California carbon allowances (CCA)

2016

12.90

+0.01

Low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS)

2016

90.00

0.00

CCA price for regular Carbob

2016

10.38

+0.01

CCA price for ULSD

2016

13.19

+0.02

LCFS price for regular Carbob

2016

3.18

0.00

LCFS price for ULSD

2016

2.47

0.00

Price per gallon ¢/USG

¢/USG

40

California carbon allowances credits

$/t

13.10 13.00

30

12.90 20

12.80

10

hh

0

12.70 12.60 12.50

-10 -20 5 Jul 16

12.40 3 Aug 16

1 Sep 16

Copyright © 2016 Argus Media group Licensed to: Cortney Becker, Argus Media Inc (New York)

3 Oct 16

12.30 13 May 16

20 Jun 16

11 Aug 16

3 Oct 16

Argus US West Coast Products

Issue 16-190  |  Monday 3 October 2016

RINs Renewable fuel (ethanol) 2014 2015 2016 2017 Biomass-based diesel 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cellulosic biofuel 2014 2015 2016 Advanced biofuel 2014 2015 2016 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) ¢/USG 2015 2016

¢/RIN Low

High

±

90.50 90.50 90.00 89.25

92.00 92.00 91.50 91.00

2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

101.50 102.75 101.50 103.50

103.00 104.25 103.00 106.00

0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75

123.00 159.00 209.00

125.00 161.00 211.00

0.00 0.00 4.00

101.00 101.50 100.00

103.50 104.00 102.50

0.75 0.75 0.75

8.92 9.53

0.17 0.18

West coast Gasoline Los Angeles and San Francisco gasoline cash differentials dipped in thin trade on Monday, while Portland gasoline shifted higher. Los Angeles CARBOB traded between November Nymex +20¢/USG and +21¢/USG. Cash differentials fell 2.75¢/USG and cash prices fell 2¢/USG. Further forward, November volumes were talked between December Nymex +5¢/USG and +10¢/ USG. Cash differentials fell 4¢/USG. The backwardation in the forward curve widened slightly. An unidentified issue triggered heavy flaring late last week at PBF Energy's 155,000 b/d refinery in Torrance, California. The refiner reported at least 30 minutes of increased flaring on 1 October in a 9:21pm ET filing to a community alert system. PBF declined to comment on the status of operations on MOnday. Flaring has persisted at Torrance since a 17 September power outage and mechanical failure, which has boosted gasoline prices in southern California. Los Angeles gasoline now sits at a 4¢/USG premium over San Francisco. San Francisco had commanded a strong premium over Los Angeles in recent weeks, before the issues at Torrance caused southern Californian prices to spike. The San Francisco market similarly fell today but no deals were struck. Volumes were talked between November Nymex +14¢/USG and +20¢/USG. Cash differentials slid 4¢/USG lower. Cash prices fell 3.3¢/USG.

Copyright © 2016 Argus Media group Licensed to: Cortney Becker, Argus Media Inc (New York)

Los Angeles gasoline

84 Carbob Weighted avg 84 Carbob 88.5 Carbob 84 sub-octane 84 Azbob 91 Azbob Ethanol low CI

¢/USG

Del

Diff basis

Low diff

High diff

Oct

Nov

+20.00

Nov Oct Oct Oct Oct

Dec 84 Nov 84 84

+5.00 +30.00 +17.00 +2.00 +32.75

+21.00 +20.33 +10.00 +31.50 +18.00 +4.00 +34.75

Del

Diff basis

Low diff

High diff

Oct

Nov

+6.00

Oct Oct

Nov Nov

+5.00 -4.00

+7.00 +6.50 +6.00 -3.00 -3.50

Del

Diff basis

Low diff

High diff

Low

High

±

Oct Oct

Nov 84

+14.00 +25.00

+20.00 +27.00

161.05 189.05

167.05 191.05

-3.26 -3.26

Low

High

±

167.05

168.05 167.38 154.68 199.05 165.05 171.55 202.30 173.00

-2.01

149.68 197.55 164.05 169.55 200.30 171.00

Los Angeles distillate

Carb ULSD Weighted avg EPA ULSD Jet fuel Weighted avg

¢/USG Low

High

±

161.32

162.32 161.82 161.32 152.32 151.82

+2.11

160.32 151.32

San Francisco gasoline

84 Carbob 88.5 Carbob

¢/USG

Del

Diff basis

Low diff

High diff

Low

High

±

Oct Oct Oct

Nov Nov Nov

+7.50 +6.50 -6.00

+8.50 +7.50 -5.00

162.82 161.82 149.32

163.82 162.82 150.32

+3.99 +3.99 +0.49

Del

Diff basis

Low diff

High diff

Low

High

±

Oct

Nov

+14.50

+15.50

161.55

162.55

+1.24

Del

Diff basis

Low diff

High diff

Low

High

±

Oct

Nov

-2.00

+1.00

153.32

156.32

+3.49

Portland gasoline

84 suboctane

¢/USG

Portland distillate

ULSD

+2.11 +0.49

¢/USG

San Francisco distillate

Carb ULSD EPA ULSD Jet fuel

-2.78 -2.01 -2.01 -2.01 -2.01 +2.00

¢/USG

Portland suboctane gasoline exchanged hands twice at November Nymex +15¢/USG. Cash differentials inched 0.5¢/ USG higher.

West coast Distillates Jet fuel cash differentials on the US west coast fell today while diesel cash differentials rose. In the Los Angeles prompt jet fuel market, two deals were struck at November Nymex -3.5¢/USG. Cash differentials fell 1¢/USG from Friday while cash prices nudged 0.5¢/USG

Page 2 of 7

Argus US West Coast Products

Issue 16-190  |  Monday 3 October 2016

California 3:2:1 crack spread

$/bl

30 25

Vintage

Delivery

2016 2016 2017

Oct 16 Dec 16 Dec 17

$/t

Bid

Ask

Price

±

12.85 12.87 13.10

12.91 12.93 13.30

12.88 12.90 13.20

+0.01 +0.01 0.00

Low

High

VWA

MTD

CCA volume-weighted averages

20

Vintage

hh

15 10 5 5 Jul 16

California carbon allowances (CCA)

Delivery

2015-16

Dec 16

Vintage

Delivery

2015-16

Dec 16

$/t

12.90

12.90

12.90

12.90

Trades

MTD

Volume

MTD

4

4

49,000

49,000

CCA price for gasoline, diesel 3 Aug 16

1 Sep 16

Winter 3 Oct

3 Oct 16

higher. Volumes for the second half of the month traded at Nymex -4¢/USG. Further forward, November volumes traded at December Nymex -5¢/USG. Last week the fact that there were few prompt cargoes available boosted jet fuel prices. But this week market participants are eyeing a few jet fuel vessels that are making their way to Los Angeles. The Swarna Mala and St Joseph are both expected to arrive in Los Angeles over the next week, coming from Japan. The Nave Equator is expected to arrive in San Francisco, from Yeosu, South Korea. Los Angeles prompt CARB diesel traded at November Nymex +6.5¢/USG. Cash differentials rose 0.65¢/USG while cash prices rose 2¢/USG. November volumes traded at a 4¢/USG premium to the underlying basis. San Francisco CARB diesel traded hands at October Nymex +8¢/USG. Cash differentials rose 2.5¢/USG while cash prices rose 4¢/USG. Portland diesel was offered at a penny premium to the underlying basis, but there no bids heard in the market. Cash differentials climbed 2¢/USG higher.

Regular Carbob Midgrade Carbob Premium Carbob Distillate ULSD

10.35 10.35 10.36

¢/USG Summer ± 3 Oct

+0.01 +0.01 +0.01

10.38 10.35 10.34 13.19

±

Sep index

±

+0.01 0.00 +0.01 +0.02

10.41 10.38 10.37 13.23

+0.08 +0.08 +0.09 +0.11

CO2 California carbon offsets, 30 Sep Seller-guaranteed 3-year invalidation

$/t

Bid

Ask

Price

±

10.80 10.00

11.30 10.50

11.05 10.25

0.00 0.00

California low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits

$/t

Vintage

Bid

Ask

Price

2015-16

88.00

92.00

90.00

Trades

Volume

MTD

0

0

na

VWA 2015-16

Avg Month index, 30 Sep

93

California LCFS cost for gasoline, diesel Fuel Carbob Ultra low-sulfur diesel

¢/USG Price

±

3.18 2.47

0.00 0.00

LCFS premium per carbon intensity point, 30 Sep

Renewables US ethanol markets rebounded Monday as CBOT corn futures soared to an 11-week high alongside stronger RBOB futures. CBOT corn futures rose for a second straight session after the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its weekly inspection report, which showed 1.47mn tons of corn were inspected for export for the week ending 29 September; up by more than 8pc from the previous week. The USDA also released its Weekly Crop Progress Report, which rated 73pc of the US corn crop as good-to-excellent. This was down by 1pc from the previous week's report, but still up by 5pc year-overyear. The report also showed that 24pc of the US corn crop has

Copyright © 2016 Argus Media group Licensed to: Cortney Becker, Argus Media Inc (New York)

±

Ethanol Biodiesel

¢/USG Price

±

0.73 1.14

0.00 0.00

already been harvested, which is 9pc higher week-over-week. At the west coast, NorCal cars shipping this week were discussed between 171¢ and 173¢/USG without trade. The RINs market firmed Monday on carry-through buying following the Department of Justice’s settlement with Chemoil late last week which will see the retirement of 65mn RINs. The 2016 vintage D4 biomass-based diesel RINs neared

Page 3 of 7

Argus US West Coast Products

Issue 16-190  |  Monday 3 October 2016

a six-week high, firming 0.75¢ as the credits were traded between 102¢ and 103¢/RIN, while a deal was heard done at 101.5¢/RIN. The B16/E16 spread compressed 1.25¢ to settle at 11.5¢/RIN. Current year D6 ethanol credits reached a five-week, rising two-cents as commerce was done between 90¢ and 91.5¢/RIN. The E15/E16 spread was talked at +0.5¢/RIN, but transactions were not reported. The 2016 vintage D3 cellulosic continued to find upward momentum as commerce was done for QAP credits at 210¢/ RIN. The costs of compliance as measured by Argus Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) reached a nine-week high after climbing 0.18¢ to 9.53¢/USG.

Nymex futures Del

Crack spread

Nov

147.05

+0.74

+12.95

Dec

144.68

+1.22

+11.37

Jan

144.51

+1.42

+10.68

New York heating oil ¢/USG Nov

155.32

+1.49

+16.42

Dec

156.38

+1.55

+16.28

Jan

157.76

+141.39

+16.25

Nov

48.81

+0.57

Dec

49.40

+0.58

Jan

50.01

+0.61

Light sweet crude $/bl

Crude

$/bl Del

Diff basis

Low diff

High diff

Low

High

±

ANS del USWC

Nov

Nov

-1.35

-0.85

48.22

48.72

0.93

ANS del concurrent

Nov

Nov

-1.35

-0.85

47.46

47.96

0.17

San Joaquin light

Nov

Pstg

-2.25

-1.75

47.30

47.80

2.03

Line 63

Nov

Pstg

-0.91

-0.41

48.64

49.14

2.03

Midway Sunset

Nov

Pstg

-4.75

-4.25

39.45

39.95

1.75 Avg

Light postings average

49.55

Heavy postings average

44.20

Bunkers

$/t 180cst

380cst

Low

High

±

Low

High

±

Los Angeles

350.00

353.00

+2.00

282.00

285.00

+1.50

Seattle

304.00

310.00

+2.00

260.00

265.00

+1.50

Freight rates

Fuel oil West coast bunker markets opened the week on a quiet note. Barge congestion in Los Angeles was improving, but continued to support higher prices there. One supplier was rumored to be unable to offer due to lack of product. Another supplier fixed a 1,200t lot of high-sulphur 380cst at $285/t ex-wharf for prompt delivery within two to three days. The supplier indicated high-sulphur 380cst at $282/t ex-wharf for forward delivery dates. The supplier indicated MGO at $525/t ex-wharf, but a trader saw indications for MGO at around $495/t ex-wharf. In San Francisco a trader quoted 1,000t high-sulphur 380cst at around $310/t delivered. Demand there was muted and no deals were heard. Supplier indications in Vancouver, British Columbia increased tracing crude despite weak demand there. High-sulphur 380cst and MGO were respectively indicated at $288-289/t and $610-615/t ex-wharf.

Copyright © 2016 Argus Media group Licensed to: Cortney Becker, Argus Media Inc (New York)

±

New York Rbob ¢/USG

California carbon California carbon allowances (CCAs) were up slightly today. Vintage 2016 allowances ticked up by a cent in moderate trading. The December-delivery contract closed at $12.90/metric tonne after trading four times for a total of 49,000t. Prompt-month CCAs ended the session at $12.88/t, also up by a penny, after testing higher levels earlier in the session to briefly trade near parity with the December contract. A total of 250,000t of prompt-month CCAs exchanged hands in four deals. California Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits held at $90/t after failing to trade. Bids and offers nearly converged early in the day, but the market seemed to fizzle later in the session without producing a deal.

Settle

Origin

Destination

Rate $mn

South Korea

US west coast

950,000

27.14

US west coast

Chile

725,000

19.08

$/t

30,000t clean tankers, lump sum in $

News Heavy weekend flaring at PBF Torrance An unidentified issue triggered heavy flaring late last week at PBF Energy's 155,000 b/d refinery in Torrance, California. PBF declined to comment on the status of operations today. The refiner reported at least 30 minutes of increased flaring on 1 October in a 9:21pm ET filing to a community alert system.

Page 4 of 7

Argus US West Coast Products

Issue 16-190  |  Monday 3 October 2016

US west coast clean products deals done

RINs deals done

Timing

Price ¢/USG

Volume ’000 bl

Oct

Nov+20.00

25

Oct

Nov+20.00

25

Oct

Nov+21.00

25

2016

103.00

720

Portland 84 Conv

Oct

Nov+15.00

10

2016

103.00

1500

Oct

Nov+15.00

10

2016

103.00

500

LA Jet

Nov

Dec-5.00

25

Cellulosic

2016

210.00

200

2H Oct

Nov-4.00

25

Ethanol

2016

90.00

1000

Oct

Nov-3.50

25

2016

90.00

500

Oct

Nov-3.50

25

2016

90.50

1000

Nov

Dec+4.00

25

2016

90.50

1000

Oct

Nov+6.50

25

2016

90.50

500

Oct

Nov+8.00

25

2016

90.50

525

2016

91.00

1000

2016

91.00

1000

2016

91.00

1000

2016

91.50

1000

2016

91.50

1000

LA 84 Carbob

LA Carb ULSD SF Carb ULSD

Market Biodiesel

California releases new LCFS scores The California Air Resources Board (ARB) has published 70 carbon intensity scores for fuels, including nine new pathways. The agency on 30 September released new Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) pathways for renewable natural gas and updated scores for fuels such as a hydrogen, renewable gasoline and renewable diesel that required re-certification following the state’s readoption of LCFS regulations. The new pathways for compressed natural gas from renewable sources had widely varying carbon intensity scores, ranging from 33.56gCO2e/MJ for a Texas landfill project that would deliver pipeline-quality biomethane to 80.59gCO2e/MJ for natural gas compressed in California. ARB previously made the new carbon intensity scores available to applicants for the fuel pathways for their approval before making the scores available to the public. The newly certified pathways can be used for credit reporting beginning with reports for the third quarter. Carbon intensity scores under the previous calculation system may only earn credits through 31 December. After that date, only new or recalculated credit intensity scores may be used. Fuel pathway carbon intensity scores are a measure of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions from the production and use of a type of fuel. The state uses the scores to credit fuel producers who participate in the LCFS program.

Canada announces federal carbon price Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (L) today proposed imposing a federal price on carbon emissions starting in 2018, marking the country’s first major federal plan to combat climate change.

Copyright © 2016 Argus Media group Licensed to: Cortney Becker, Argus Media Inc (New York)

Timing

Price ¢/RIN

Volume ’000 RINs

2016

102.00

2000

2016

102.50

2000

California carbon deals done Date

Type

Transaction

Vintage

Volume t

Price $

3-Oct

CCA (ICE)

Future (Oct 16)

2016

50,000

$12.89

3-Oct

CCA (ICE)

Future (Oct 16)

2016

100,000

12.89

3-Oct

CCA (ICE)

Future (Dec 16)

2016

10,000

12.90

3-Oct

CCA (ICE)

Future (Oct 16)

2015

23,000

$12.90

3-Oct

CCA (ICE)

Future (Dec 16)

2016

10,000

$12.90

3-Oct

CCA (ICE)

Future (Dec 16)

2016

25,000

$12.90

3-Oct

CCA (ICE)

Future (Oct 16)

2016

50,000

$12.88

3-Oct

CCA (ICE)

Future (Dec 16)

2016

4,000

12.90

Trudeau proposed a minimum initial carbon price of $10CAD/tonne ($7.83/t) in 2018 that would rise by $10/y to 2022. The proposal would give provinces and territories flexibility to decide how they would price carbon, including placing a direct tax on carbon or through a cap-and-trade system. The Canadian government said that all revenues from any carbon pricing mechanism would remain with the provinces and territories to use “as they see fit.” The proposal marks the first major national plan in Canada to curb climate change and follows on a series of provincial plans to cut carbon emissions. British Columbia has had a carbon tax in place since 2008 and Quebec has a cap-and-trade program, which holds joint allowance auctions with California. “Pricing pollution is one of the most efficient ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to stimulate innovation,"

Page 5 of 7

Argus US West Coast Products

Issue 16-190

Catherine McKenna, Canada's minister of Environment and Climate Change, said. Critics have called Canada’s climate policies piecemeal and have said that even in aggregate, provincial policies would not be sufficient to meet the national target to cut carbon emissions to 30pc below 2005 levels by 2030. Environmental groups have challenged the federal government to establish a plan for meeting the 2030 target. Canadian environmental think tank the Pembina Institute called the plan an “important milestone” and said it will “help the country’s environment and economy as we compete for the rapidly growing global demand for clean energy.” The government of Alberta promptly challenged the proposal. Premier Rachel Notley (NDP) said the provincial government would not back the plan without federal support for a pipeline from her province to the coast. Alberta had previously contributed to previous national climate initiatives and would not pay more “absent serious concurrent progress on energy infrastructure, to ensure we have the economic means to fund these policies,” Notley said.

|

Monday 3 October 2016

Ecuador resets schedule for port expansion Ecuador has reopened a tender for the concession of Manta port after the sole bidder in the original auction had withdrawn amid mixed government signals over the process. Bids must be submitted by 7 October, the winner will be announced on 30 November and the 40-year concession contract should be signed on 14 December, according to Manta´s Port Authority chief executive Jose Miguel Garcia. Ecuador revived the tender after Chilean firm Agunsa withdrew its bid in an aborted auction in September. Ecuador’s president Rafael Correa publicly apologized to Agunsa after the process to award the concession fell apart because of an apparently unintended 60-day delay. The confusion sparked last month’s ouster of transportation minister Walter Solis. His replacement Boris Cordova, the former deputy minister, now heads the port concession process. Agunsa had pledged to invest at least $175mn to revitalize and deepen the Manta port, and Quito vowed to disburse an additional $105mn to upgrade the port´s infrastructure.

Argus Americas Crude Summit

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January 17-19, 2017 | Houston, Texas Join 500+ global crude markets stakeholders for the critical strategy meeting of the year

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How will policy uncertainty impact North America’s carbon and emissions markets?

Market Reporting Consulting Events

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Page 6 of 7

Market Reporting Consulting Events

Argus US West Coast Products

Issue 16-190  |  Monday 3 October 2016

But under the new terms, in addition to the investment to upgrade the port, the concession winner must pay a $280,000 annual fee indexed to inflation to Manta´s Port Authority, up from the originally proposed $250,000 annual fee. The concession holder should also pay a variable $42mn fee over the life of the contract, up from the original $34mn. It was not immediately clear if Agunsa plans to re-submit a proposal. The port has two terminals that handle containers, bulk cargo and marine fuel, among other goods. Both terminals handled 1mn metric tons of cargo last year, according to Ecuador´s port authority. The port is located in Manta province, which was hit by a devastating earthquake in April 2016.

Announcements Following consultation, Argus is making a change to its Los Angeles ethanol assessment. Effective 10 October, Argus’ Los Angeles ethanol assessment will be for product with a carbon intensity (CI) score of 79.9. The assessment currently reflects the price of ethanol with a CI score of no more than 90.1. This change is intended to better reflect current trading practice. For more information, contact Zander Capozzola at [email protected] or 713-429-6332.

Argus US West Coast Products  is published by Argus Media group Registered office Argus House, 175 St John St, London, EC1V 4LW Tel: +44 20 7780 4200 Fax: +44 870 868 4338 email: [email protected] ISSN: 1756-9486 Copyright notice Copyright © 2016 Argus Media group. All rights reserved. All intellectual property rights in this publication and the information published herein are the exclusive property of Argus and/or its licensors and may only be used under licence from Argus. Without limiting the foregoing, by reading this publication you agree that you will not copy or reproduce any part of its contents (including, but not limited to, single prices or any other individual items of data) in any form or for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of Argus.

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Disclaimer The data and other information published herein (the “Data”) are provided on an “as is” basis. Argus makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of the Data or fitness for any particular purpose. Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any party’s reliance on the Data and disclaims any and all liability related to or arising out of use of the Data to the full extent permissible by law.

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